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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Burst and oxidation behavior of Cr-coated Zirlo during simulated LOCA testing

We report Cr-coated Zr-alloys are a near-term cladding concept to improve reactor safety during accident scenarios. Burst and steam oxidation behavior of bare and Cr-coated Zirlo claddings were examined under simulated loss-of-coolant accident conditions. The 4.4 µm coating had no substantial effect on ballooning or opening geometry but did increase burst temperatures at higher pressures. The coating reduced steam oxidation of the cladding compared to bare specimens, but in regions of high strain, the coating developed through-cracks allowing rapid underlying zirconia formation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Empirical and mechanistic transient fission gas release model for high-burnup LOCA conditions

In response to the nuclear industry desire to extend burnup beyond current licensing practices, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) released a research information letter (RIL) that provides a basis for analyzing fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal (FFRD) in light-water reactors. Of the five elements discussed, the most ambiguous is the significance of transient fission gas (FG) release (FGR) (tFGR) and its effects on fuel performance under loss-of-coolant accident conditions. In fresh fuel, FG migration and eventual release is primarily governed by diffusion-based mechanisms at higher temperatures (>1,000 °C). However, the mechanisms governing FGR changes as burnup increases. More recent research indicates that FGR increases as burnup increases, specifically under temperature transient conditions, and this release occurs at lower temperatures with a new release mechanism. This behavior has been attributed to microcracking in the fuel and is likely related to microstructure embrittlement with the presence of over pressurized FG bubbles. The NRC RIL outlines the complexity of the phenomenon and a need for a deeper understanding to adequately address FFRD for regulatory application. Here, therefore, this manuscript intends to summarize the publicly available tFGR data and discuss the observed dependencies (e.g., burnup, heating rate, sample geometry, terminal temperature). An empirical model has been developed and benchmarked against recently published experimental data. However, this empirical model is limited to conditions for which fitting data exist and, therefore, a high-level discussion is included to provide a roadmap for atomistically-informed multiscale modeling in conjunction with experimental data collection to develop a mechanistic tFGR model widely applicable to a broad range of nuclear fuel conditions at high burnup.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Characterization of the radial microstructural evolution in LWR UO 2 using electron backscatter diffraction

Studies on high burnup UO 2 subjected to loss-of-coolant accident conditions have shown that restructured regions of the fuel are susceptible to pulverization and eventual dispersal. Due to a lack of pre-test characterization, the distinct microstructural features rendering the fuel prone to fragmentation remain ambiguous. Four samples of commercially irradiated light-water reactor UO 2 have been characterized utilizing electron backscatter diffraction to assess the susceptible microstructure. The microscopy focused on determining the burnup and temperature conditions responsible for the formation of the different microstructural regions where the regions were denoted as the high-burnup structure (HBS), HBS transition, mid-radial, restructured central, and central region. Previous works have outlined the specific conditions required for the restructuring of the microstructure into the HBS, but the conditions responsible for the restructuring in the central region of the fuel are not well understood. The four analyzed samples confirm a burnup threshold of 61 GWd/tU, and an unknown temperature range is needed to facilitate the formation of the restructured central region. In conclusion, additional fuel performance evaluations are needed to quantify the temperature range promoting restructuring in the central region.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

An integrated statistical-thermodynamic model for fission gas release and swelling in nuclear fuels

Here, we propose a new model for burst fission gas release induced by microcracking in ceramic nuclear fuels such as uranium dioxide. The model stipulates that the densities of defects in the fuel material, such as microcracks and fission gas bubbles on grain boundaries, evolve in accordance with the second law of thermodynamics. Central to the model is the notion of an effective temperature, conjugate to the configurational entropy of the fuel material, and directly linked to the burnup. The model predicts that microcracking, driven by the internal stress state of the fuel material, reduces the bubble storage capacity of grain boundaries, and accounts for burst fission gas release during rapid temperature transients that simulate power transients, reactor startup, and loss-of-coolant accident conditions.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

In-situ determination of strain during transient burst testing and the temperature dependence of Zircaloy-4 claddings

Understanding fuel system behavior during postulated loss-of-coolant accidents is pertinent for continued safe and efficient operation of light water reactors, particularly as higher burnups are being pursued and safety margins re-evaluated. Conventional mechanical models for the incumbent Zr alloys typically rely on the assumption that steady-state creep is the dominant fuel cladding response during transient accident conditions. To investigate this assumption, simulated accident burst testing was performed on Zircaloy-4 claddings with balloon behavior measured in-situ. Here, two distinct loading conditions were utilized during burst testing: (1) constant-gas-inventory where pressure was allowed to increase with temperature and (2) constant pressure. In-situ strains and strain rates were measured via 2-dimensional digital image correlation techniques and synchronized with temperature to determine deformation dependencies. The temperature dependence of strain rate was characterized by a two segment Arrhenius relationship, with a distinct transition between the high and low temperature/strain regimes. The average activation energy of the lower temperature/strain regime was 328 ± 25 kJ/mol, in agreement with the ~320 kJ/mol used for conventional LOCA models. However, the higher temperature/strain segment, which encompassed most of ballooning, showed increased activation energies as well as a dependence on whether the burst region was in view. For tests that burst away from the camera view, the average high temperature/strain segment activation energy was 635 ± 150 kJ/mol. For samples where the rupture opening formed in view, the average activation energy was 1015 ± 179 kJ/mol. This observed shift in temperature dependence indicates a transition in deformation mechanism at the end of life, possibly to time independent failure mechanisms, which has not yet been visualized in the literature for Zr alloys. Parameters at the transition points were analyzed to determine thresholds for this change in behavior, which occurred at an average hoop strain of 6.9 ± 2.1 %.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Identifying microstructures susceptible to pulverization in commercially irradiated high burnup UO2 under LOCA conditions

High burnup fuel fragmentation (HBFF) has been a concern in the nuclear industry for many years. When UO2 reaches and exceeds pellet average burnups around 55 GWd/tU, microstructural changes in the fuel pellet begin to occur that render the pellet susceptible to fine fragmentation under loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) conditions. During a LOCA event, the cladding balloons and bursts, potentially releasing part of these fine fuel fragments into the reactor pressure vessel. This process is known as fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal (FFRD). Presently, the US nuclear industry is developing a safety basis for FFRD with the goal of increasing burnups and pressurized water reactor cycle lengths. Increased cycle lengths would push the burnup limits of the fuel rods past the known threshold for HBFF susceptibility. In this work, the microstructural impact on HBFF was investigated by comparing the microstructures of as-irradiated rod segments to their post-LOCA tested counterparts. This investigation found that varied operational histories result in different microstructural evolutions across the pellet radius, which impacts the fragmentation behavior and radial location of the fragmentation. It is noted that regions with a high bubble density and a high density of grain boundaries fragment under LOCA-relevant conditions. In addition to the fragmentation that has been previously reported at the periphery of the fuel, fragmentation was also noted in the dark zone toward the fuel center. Analysis of the power histories of the fuel samples suggests that the dark zone forms in the central regions of the pellet between temperatures of approximately 740 and 960 °C.

McKinney, Casey [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000335383614)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Effect of spacer grids on high-burnup fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal

Increasing the fuel burnup limit in light-water reactors to improve fuel cycle economics requires a strong technical foundation. Experimental observations from the Halden and Studsvik programs have revealed severe fuel fragmentation during loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) conditions, highlighting the need for additional technical evaluation. Consequently, further LOCA test data are needed to complement existing findings and improve the understanding of fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal (FFRD) behavior. Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s Severe Accident Test Station has played a significant role in advancing the understanding of high-burnup fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal phenomena. One remaining gap in the available experimental database is the effect of fuel assembly structural features on cladding deformation behavior during a LOCA, and more specifically, their impact on the fuel’s ability to fragment, relocate, and disperse. Recent analyses using the BISON fuel performance code suggest that cladding deformation near grid spacers will remain below the 3% threshold that has been reported in the NRC Research Information Letter, indicating that the cladding could remain mechanically constrained during the LOCA event. This paper builds upon the BISON analyses to design and conduct a series of out-of-cell tests aimed at further evaluating cladding deformation in and around grid spacers. In addition, these tests were used to assess local cladding temperature conditions and compare them against analytical predictions in order to better replicate expected in-reactor behavior. Finally, an in-cell high-burnup LOCA test was designed and performed to evaluate the effects of a grid spacer, or cladding restraint, on fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal susceptibility. The high-burnup test results differed from those of historical LOCA experiments, with a recorded rupture temperature of 861°C. Two ballooned regions and corresponding rupture openings were observed, with rupture widths of approximately 0.64 mm for both ruptures and rupture lengths of 4.8 mm and 5.6 mm, respectively.

Capps, Nathan [ORNL]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Improved damage tolerance of SiC-based nuclear fuel cladding with novel multi-layered SiC coating design at 1200 °C

Continuous SiC fibre reinforced SiC matrix composites (SiC f -SiC m ) with monolithic SiC outer coatings are considered as a damage-tolerant cladding design for loss of coolant accident (LOCA) conditions in light water reactors. However, monolithic SiC coatings are brittle and prone to catastrophic failure. In this study, a SiC f -SiC m cladding with a novel multi-layer SiC outer coating (11 sub-layers, ∼260 µm in total thickness) was investigated under C-ring compression at room temperature and 1200 °C in argon environment. Real-time synchrotron X-ray computed tomography (XCT) was employed to capture crack initiation and propagation processes. Compared to conventional monolithic SiC outer coatings, the multi-layer coating structure facilitated crack deflection and bifurcation enhancing its damage tolerance at both temperatures. Despite pre-existing surface cracks, claddings exhibited stable mechanical-performance at both temperatures. These initial cracks did not critically affect the failure processes as they were not aligned with the maximum stress direction. Furthermore, the microstructure, distribution of residual stresses, and local properties of individual components in the material were thoroughly characterized, and compared with open literature on conventional claddings with monolithic outer coatings. These results provide new insights into the failure mechanisms of multi-layer SiC coatings and offer guidance for the future design of accident-tolerant nuclear fuel claddings.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Full core LOCA safety analysis for a PWR containing high burnup fuel

For economic reasons, the US nuclear industry is renewing efforts to build a technical basis to extend peak rod average burnup limits above the current regulatory burnup limit of 62 GWd/MTU. The primary driver of these efforts is to economically increase pressurized water reactor (PWR) cycle lengths to 24 months, reduce the number of fresh fuel assemblies, increase time online, thereby reducing number of outages and their associated cost, higher fuel utilization, and possibly reduce core design constraints. In order for US nuclear utilities to leverage these economic efficiencies, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) will likely require nuclear power plants (NPPs) to analyze a number of potential operational occurrences and their potential consequences with each new core design prior to resuming normal operation. Potential operational occurrences can be divided into three primary regimes: (1) normal operation, (2) anticipated operation occurrences (AOOs), and (3) design basis accidents (DBAs). Normal plant operation is an operating regime in which the plant operates within specified operational limits until the end of the cycle, whereas AOOs are events that result in the NPP deviating outside the normal operating regime. A key attribute of an AOO is that the occurrence should be expected. However, by definition, the occurrence of an AOO does not result in significant impact to critical safety functions. The last potential operational occurrence is a DBA. From the fuel performance point-of-view, DBAs can be subdivided into two bounding categories: (1) loss of coolant accidents (LOCAs), and (2) reactivity insertion accidents (RIAs). Unlike AOOs, DBAs may result in fuel rod failure. The NRC imposes fundamental acceptance criteria to minimize radiological consequences to the public and onsite staff. Furthermore, safety criteria are typically linked to the fulfillment of other acceptance criteria related to reactor safety equipment designed to mitigate DBAs.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impact of LWR assembly structural features on cladding burst behavior under LOCA conditions

This provides an initial scoping study on clad balloon and burst behavior for burnup extension of reactor fuel. The associated issues with burnup extension are fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal in the event of cladding failure. The general finding of this work is that the structural features, spacer grids and mixing vanes, locally suppress cladding deformation but have little impact on the overall clad performance during loss-of-coolant accidents. The work detailed in a previous report by Capps et al. focused on core optimization via neutronics, thermal hydraulics and thermomechanical analysis for burnups beyond 62 GWD/tU and enrichments above 5%. Uncertainty of fuel fragmentation relocation and dispersal in high-burnup rods during accident conditions was also investigated. The dispersal aspect of fuel fragmentation depends on cladding rupture. Thus, assessing uncertainties in the rupture behavior is helpful in estimating the dispersal of high-burnup fuel. This study builds on the previous work by assessing the impact of assembly structural features on cladding balloon and burst behavior in a full-length fuel rod. In this work, the BISON fuel performance code was used to generate 2D radial and height meshes containing structural features commonly used in nuclear fuel assemblies. First, meshes were generated with spacer grids. Results were then compared to the cladding burst temperature and balloon strain results from the previous work. A mesh sensitivity study was performed to ensure that mixing vanes and spacer grid effects were appropriately considered, resulting in a more refined mesh than the previous study. The balloon deformation and burst times of the cladding were compared to the original case. Consideration was also given to the effect of rod initial pressure. In conclusion, 3D quarter rod simulations were also performed and found good agreement with the 2D simulations in clad deformation and reasonable agreement in burst times.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Design of a separate effects MiniFuel irradiation experiment investigating microstructure evolution in high burnup UO 2

The microstructural evolution of UO 2 fuel pellets during commercial operation in light water reactors (LWRs) is known to vary significantly across the pellet radius due to spatial variations in local temperature and burnup. The primary obstacle to extending LWR refueling cycles to 24-month intervals is the susceptibility of certain high burnup fuel microstructures to fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal (FFRD) during a loss of coolant accident (LOCA). Although FFRD of the high burnup structure in the rim region of a pellet is well studied, the fine fragmentation that has been observed in a second region, near the midradius of the pellet (termed the “dark zone”) following mock LOCA testing of high burnup commercial fuel rods is less understood. This paper describes the design, analysis, and execution of a separate effects MiniFuel irradiation experiment that aims to identify the specific temperature and burnup regimes under which FFRD-susceptible dark zone microstructures form. The small disc specimens (3 mm diameter by ∼0.3 mm thick) enable more precise control of the relatively uniform temperature and burnup conditions. A total of 42 specimens were fabricated with typical LWR fuel densities (∼96%–98% of theoretical density) and grain sizes (∼12 μm) and are being irradiated over a range of temperatures (600°C–1000°C) and discharge burnups (50–72 MWd/kg-U) that bound the midradius region of high burnup LWR fuel. Fuel specimens with identical 235 U enrichments were inserted in two irradiation locations in the High Flux Isotope Reactor and are currently undergoing irradiation to further evaluate the impact of rate effects (fission rate, time at temperature) on the microstructural evolution. The fuel fabrication and the thermal and neutronic simulations used for designing the experiment are detailed in this paper. A secondary objective of the experiment is to observe fission gas release (FGR) under the various irradiation conditions, and this work provides first-order predictions of FGR from all fuel specimens. The insights gained from these experiments will inform future high burnup core designs that could minimize the formation of susceptible microstructures and ultimately enable 24-month refueling cycles while minimizing the fraction of the fuel susceptible to FFRD.

FFRD↗
DOE OSTI2025

Device for steam cladding oxidation testing at TREAT

To compare the chemical degradation of conventional zirconium alloy (Zry) cladding to advance silicon carbide (SiC) cladding in a post loss of coolant accident (LOCA) environment, new nuclear testing capabilities are necessary. The Transient Reactor Test (TREAT) Facility at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has matured its transient fuel testing capabilities since its 2017 restart. The most recent experiment architecture is the Transient Water Irradiation System in TREAT (TWIST), which is designed to support qualification of accident tolerant fuels in light water reactors. INL has designed and analyzed a natural circulation steam flow modification for TWIST to produce prototypic conditions of cladding oxidation. The in-situ device will be electrically heated to drive natural circulation. Moreover, the SiC cladding requires heating above 1700 °C to observe failure, thus internal prototypic nuclear heating with radiation effects will be used. Thermal hydraulic analysis with RELAP5-3D (Reactor Excursion and Leak Analysis Program) estimated steam fluxes greater than 50 mg cm −2 s −1 can be achieved. These fluxes are adequate to test Zry cladding according to draft regulatory guides and to test SiC cladding according to past experiments.

Oxidation↗
DOE OSTI2025

Effects of grain size and porosity on cladding failure in high-burnup UO 2 : A sensitivity and uncertainty study

Isotopic taggants are being studied to aid in the provenance assessment of nuclear materials. However, these taggants must be selected such that they do not adversely affect fuel performance during normal operation or accident scenarios. Taggants are known to affect the fuel’s grain size and porosity. In the work described in this paper, the BISON fuel performance code was used to assess the potential effects of taggants (i.e., grain size and porosity) on fuel rod behavior and cladding failure during a high-burnup, large-break loss-of-coolant accident. Here, 281 individual fuel rods from the same reactor core were modeled for a sensitivity study, a parametric study, and uncertainty quantification. The cladding failure predictions often exhibited stochastic behavior. After additional study, it was found that the cladding failure model is highly sensitive to residual error inherent to numerical approximation solvers. Some strategies to mitigate this sensitivity are discussed. The study found no relationship between known taggant effects and cladding failure status. However, taggants were found to affect the time and location of failure in certain rods. In conclusion, future work to continue investigating and validating these findings is briefly discussed.

Doped UO 2↗
DOE OSTI2025

Transient fuel performance analysis for the preliminary fuel concept of general atomics fast modular reactor

This study investigates the transient fuel performance of General Atomics Fast Modular Reactor (GA-FMR) during accident scenarios, focusing on the behavior of its innovative fuel system that combines high-assay low enriched uranium dioxide (HALEUO2) fuel with SiGA® ceramic matrix composite silicon carbide cladding. The preliminary fuel design’s response was analyzed during reactivity-initiated accidents (RIA) and loss of coolant accidents (LOCA) using BISON fuel performance analysis code, which included both the diffusion enhanced and BISON-FASTGRASS coupled UO 2 models. The RIA analysis demonstrated that effective reactivity control reduced fuel temperature, though with transient fission gas release resulting in additional tensile stress state on the cladding. LOCA simulations revealed differing predictions between the two models: the BISON UO 2 model showed more transient fission gas release but minimal pellet expansion, while the BISON-FASTGRASS UO 2 model predicted less pronounced fission gas release but more fuel swelling and thermal expansion, potentially leading to pellet-cladding mechanical interaction. Here, these findings highlight critical areas for fuel design optimization and identify knowledge gaps requiring further experimental and computational investigation to advance GA-FMR fuel development.

Lee, Soon K. [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), A↗
DOE OSTI2025

A strategy for automated core design to increase economic viability and minimize fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal susceptibility in high-burnup cores

The nuclear industry aims to increase the cycle length of pressurized water reactors from 18 to 24 months to increase power plant capacity factors and economic viability. These cycle length extensions will inherently require fuel rods to exceed the current peak rod average burnup limit of 62 GWd/MTU. A chief concern of operating beyond the current burnup limit is the fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal (FFRD) phenomenon in which pulverized fuel fragments can axially relocate and escape through a burst in the cladding formed during a loss-of-coolant accident. In this work, we demonstrate an approach for automating core design employing an optimization tool based on a penalty-free, parallel simulated annealing algorithm to produce pressurized water reactor core designs with two different optimization objectives. The two objectives were to produce core designs with (1) mitigated FFRD susceptibility while achieving 24-month cycle lengths (2) maximum cycle length with no regard for the likelihood of FFRD. Batch size was considered in tandem with both cases to maximize economic viability. The PARCS nodal model was the primary reactor physics tool used in the optimizations and used nuclear cross sections calculated with 2D Polaris lattice physics models. Reactor performance and safety characteristics of the optimized cores were verified using high-fidelity Virtual Environment for Reactor Applications models. The core designs produced by the optimization tool are compared with each other and to a high-burnup core design produced and analyzed in previous works to highlight the fuel management strategies that may enhance high-burnup reactor safety and economic viability. The optimized cores satisfied their respective objective functions, producing a maximum cycle length of 720 effective full-power days in one core design and one that may reduce FFRD susceptibility by up to 50% based on the first-order approximation to FFRD risk formulated in this work. The optimized cores met most constraints but exceeded the hot channel factor limit, especially in FFRD cases where fresh fuel carried more power. Furthermore, this highlights the need for future lattice-level optimizations and broader assembly options.

Cycle length↗
DOE OSTI2026

Estimation of post-burst vibration-induced fuel dispersal thresholds following LOCA-simulant testing

The nuclear industry intends to increase burnup past the regulatory limit of 62 GWd/MTU, and to be successful, the dispersal behavior of fragmented high-burnup fuel during loss-of-coolant accidents must be better understood. Part of this behavior is fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal. This work reports on testing concerning the dispersal of fuel from rods following burst and pressure blowdown through the burst. The Fuel Relocation Induced by Accident Recovery (FRIAR) system was used to examine surrogate material and pre-burst cladding specimens to evaluate the effects of vibrational loading, mixture composition, and burst size on post-burst dispersal. Vibrational loading resulted in maximum dispersal around 15 Hz when the loading was performed with peak-to-peak oscillation amplitudes at 0.5 and 1 mm. Here, under this aggressive vibrational loading, dispersal was found to become significant as burst widths increased to approximately 5 mm and larger. However, below 4 mm widths, little material dispersed out of the opening, even at 1 mm amplitudes and for more dispersive mixtures (smaller average fragments). At and above 7 mm widths, dispersal was rapid for all mixtures. Finally, dispersal in the threshold region (4–5 mm wide bursts) strongly depended on the mixture. For mixtures with large fragments, dispersal was minimized to a few fragments, as the large fragments proved to be effective at minimizing dispersal. Conversely, mixtures with smaller fragments showed increased dispersal in this region.

Burst geometry↗
DOE OSTI2023

A review on the sizing and selection of control valves for thermal hydraulics for reactor system applications

This study presents an overview regarding how to model/size, choose, and maintain control valves (CVs) for a reactor system thermal hydraulics experimentation—specifically simulating pipe break(s) and a loss of coolant accident (LOCA) analysis. In a thermal hydraulics test loop, CVs modulate fluid flow according to the control signal generated by the controller to control the process parameter. The selection of a CV in industrial applications involves many factors, including process diversity, safety, and reliability. Further, the key issues and challenges for performing proper mathematical modeling, installation, servicing, and calibration are also discussed for the benefit of operators and end-users. Additionally, this research includes case studies illustrating major plant-level accidents associated with the malfunctioning of valves. Therefore, the study will serve as a knowledge base or reference guide for young professionals and operators who wish to better understand process control applications.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2021

System risk quantification and decision making support using functional modeling and dynamic Bayesian network

Risk-informed decision-making requires a probabilistic assessment of the likelihood of success of control action, given the system status. This paper presents a systematic state transition modeling approach integrating dynamic probabilistic risk assessment with a decision-making process using a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) coupled with functional modeling. A functional model designed with multilevel flow modeling (MFM) technique was used to build a system state structure inferred by energy, mass, and information flow so that one can verify the developed model with respect to system functionality. The MFM model represents the causal relationship among the nodes, which captures the structure of process parameters and control units. Each node may have multiple possible states, and the DBN structured by the MFM model represents the time-domain transitions among the defined states. Furthermore, the MFM-DBN integrated state transition modeling is a white-box approach that allows one to draw the system's risk profile by updating the system states and supports the decisions probabilistically with physical inference. An example of a simple heating system has been used to illustrate this process, including decision-making support based on quantitative risk profile. For demonstrating its applicability to a complex system operational decision making, a case study of station blackout accident scenario leading to the seal loss of coolant accident in a nuclear power plant is presented. The proposed approach effectively provided the risk profile along time for each option so that the operators can make the best decision, which minimizes the plant risk.

42 ENGINEERING↗