Finding my Drumbeat: Applying Lessons Learned from Remo Ruffini to Understanding Astrophysical Transients
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Fryer, Christopher Lee↗
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Evaluating the Effectiveness of the 2001-2002 NASA "Why?" Files Program
This report contains the results of the evaluation conducted for the 2001-2002 NASA 'Why?' Files program that was conducted in March 2002. The analysis is based on the results of 139 surveys collected from educators registered for the program. Respondents indicated that (1) the programs in the series are aligned with the national mathematics, science, and technology standards; (2) the programs are developmentally (grade level) appropriate; and (3) the programs enhance and enrich the teaching and learning of mathematics, science, and technology.
Pinelli, Thomas E.↗
First Trials with EMPHASIS
This report presents a series of three EMPHASIS trial problems we ran in March 2019, to demonstrate (1) that we can set up and run an SGEMP calculation, and (2) that we understand the nature and units of the input specifications and the output results. As these are the first EMPHASIS problems we have set up and run, we present some of the input decks and some of the lessons learned, to better orient a reader who might also be a new user of EMPHASIS. The EMPHASIS manual and the ITS manual are both good, but not complete enough to set up and run these applications. Substantial trial and error was still required. The trial problems are all based on an evacuated aluminum cylinder with 1 m inner radius and 1 m inner height. The cylinder is 100 mil thick. We take the axis of symmetry to be the z axis. The aluminum cylinder will be treated as perfectly conducting. The trial problems are (1) the cavity driven with a short pulse on an antenna at the center of the cavity, (2) the cavity driven by a prescribed short pulse of photocurrent injected normally from the bottom inside of the cylinder, and (3) the cavity driven by a prescribed short pulse of x-rays normally incident on the bottom outside of the cylinder.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Geometry and Strings 2023
The proposal details plans for an upcoming meeting as part of the annual Geometry and Strings conference series. This series was formerly known as the ``F-theory'' conference series and has since broadened to include more general approaches to high energy physics centered on geometry, quantum field theory and string theory. The University of Pennsylvania has agreed to host the 2023 installment of the conference, which will take place on the UPenn campus in March 2023. The main thrust of the activities will center on several interconnected areas within the subject, including: The Swampland Program in quantum gravity and its geometric manifestations. The Geometric Engineering Program in string theory and its application to numerous question in quantum field theory. The Generalized Symmetries Program in quantum field theory and string theory. The Machine Learning Program aimed at understanding the large number of vacua present in string theory. The conference will adhere to a code of conduct aimed at making the event accessible to all participants. Additionally, particular attention will be paid to having a balanced mix of junior, mid-level and senior speakers from diverse backgrounds.
Lust, Dieter↗
From Multi-Sensors Observations Towards Cross-Disciplinary Study of Pre-Earthquake Signals. What have We Learned from the Tohoku Earthquake?
The lessons we have learned from the Great Tohoku EQ (Japan, 2011) how this knowledge will affect our future observation and analysis is the main focus of this presentation.We present multi-sensors observations and multidisciplinary research in our investigation of phenomena preceding major earthquakes. These observations revealed the existence of atmospheric and ionospheric phenomena occurring prior to theM9.0 Tohoku earthquake of March 11, 2011, which indicates s new evidence of a distinct coupling between the lithosphere and atmosphere/ionosphere, as related to underlying tectonic activity. Similar results have been reported before the catastrophic events in Chile (M8.8, 2010), Italy (M6.3, 2009) and Sumatra (M9.3, 2004). For the Tohoku earthquake, our analysis shows a synergy between several independent observations characterizing the state of the lithosphere /atmosphere coupling several days before the onset of the earthquakes, namely: (i) Foreshock sequence change (rate, space and time); (ii) Outgoing Long wave Radiation (OLR) measured at the top of the atmosphere; and (iii) Anomalous variations of ionospheric parameters revealed by multi-sensors observations. We are presenting a cross-disciplinary analysis of the observed pre-earthquake anomalies and will discuss current research in the detection of these signals in Japan. We expect that our analysis will shed light on the underlying physics of pre-earthquake signals associated with some of the largest earthquake events
Ouzounov, D.↗
Progress on LISA Colloid Microthruster Technology Development
Colloid microthrusters have been operated successfully in flight, providing drag-free and precision control for spacecraft that can be used for future applications such as gravity wave and exoplanet observatories. The Space Technology 7 Disturbance Reduction System (ST7- DRS) technology demonstration payload included eight Busek Colloid Micro-Newton Thrusters (CMNTs) as part of the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) Pathfinder mission that launched in December of 2015. The CMNTs provided full attitude and precision drag-free control of the spacecraft with <10 nm/√Hz stability along the most sensitive axis during commissioning, nominal, and extended mission phases through April of 2017. Performance requirements (≤0.1 μN/√Hz) were met and models were validated based on on- orbit measurements of test mass motion and actuation during the 60-day nominal and 30-day extended missions. In 2018, the European Space Agency (ESA) selected LISA to be the agency’s next “large-class” mission, currently in Phase A, with a launch scheduled for 2034 and a 12.5-year duration, including the transfer (1.5 years), commissioning (1 year), nominal (4 or 6 years), and extended (6 or 4 years) phases of the mission, which sets the lifetime and consumables requirement. NASA is considering a significant contribution of hardware to the ESA-led mission, potentially including colloid microthrusters. In preparation, NASA is developing five technologies to TRL 5 and 6, including the colloid microthrusters, to be ready for infusion into LISA by the mission adoption review (MAR), currently scheduled for 2024. While ST7-DRS effectively brought the CMNTs to TRL 7, additional lower-TRL flow control components must be developed for full redundancy, reducing the system-level TRL back to 4. Key to the future of the colloid microthruster technology will be to use lessons learned and keep as much of the heritage from the ST7 design as possible while updating the system to support redundancy and lifetime requirements of a flagship-class mission. This paper describes the technology plan and progress to reach TRL 6 by the MAR, focusing on near- term plans to reach TRL 5 by the end of March 2022 for the LISA Colloid Microthrusters (CMTs). Work includes requirements development and sizing studies, breadboard and brassboard hardware developments at Busek, including relevant lifetime and environment testing, and lifetime modeling, verification and validation efforts at JPL, UCLA, and UCI.
Gamero-Castaño, Manuel↗
Looking at NGST Through the Eyes of DCATT
The first phase of the Developmental Characterized Active Telescope Testbed (DCATT) hardware system was integrated at Goddard Space Flight Center in early March of 1999 and has been operational for almost a year. Experiments are currently being conducted on the testbed to quantify and refine various methods and techniques in the baseline wavefront sensing and control process. This paper addresses the actual optical design of the Phase 0 hardware configuration and discusses the open loop system level performance of the system. Lessons learned for NGST during the buildup and characterization of the system are presented.
Davila, Pam↗
Short–Term Forecasting of Wind Gusts at Airports Across CONUS Using Machine Learning
Short–term forecasting of wind gusts, particularly those of higher intensity, is of great societal importance but is challenging due to the presence of multiple gust generation mechanisms. Wind gust observations from eight high–passenger–volume airports across the continental United States (CONUS) are summarized and used to develop predictive models of wind gust occurrence and magnitude. These short–term (same hour) forecast models are built using multiple logistic and linear regression, as well as artificial neural networks (ANNs) of varying complexity. A suite of 19 upper–air predictors drawn from the ERA5 reanalysis and an autoregressive (AR) term are used. Stepwise procedures instruct predictor selection, and resampling is used to quantify model stability. All models are developed separately for the warm (April–September) and cold (October–March) seasons. Results show that ANNs of 3–5 hidden layers (HLs) generally exhibit higher hit rates than logistic regression models and also improve skill with respect to wind gust magnitudes. However, deeper networks with more HLs increase false alarm rates in occurrence models and mean absolute error in magnitude models due to model overfitting. For model skill, inclusion of the AR term is critical while the majority of the remaining skill derives from wind speeds and lapse rates. A predictive ceiling is also clearly demonstrated, particularly for the strong and damaging gust magnitudes, which appears to be partially due to ERA5 predictor characteristics and the presence of mixed wind climates.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
The Role of Internal Variability in Springtime Arctic Amplification from 1980 to 2022
Arctic amplification (AA) refers to the enhanced warming of the Arctic relative to the global average due to rising greenhouse gases, measured as the ratio of Arctic-mean to global-mean surface air temperature (SAT) trends. From 1980 to 2022, annual-mean AA reached 4.2 (Arctic defined as north of 70°N). Climate models simulate AA but fail to reproduce its magnitude. Sweeney et al. attributed much of this model–observation discrepancy to internal variability. AA shows seasonality and so does the discrepancy. Spring (March–May) shows the largest gap: Observed AA is 4.2, while the multimodel mean is 2.7. This raises several questions: 1) What role does internal variability play in observed spring AA? 2) How does simulated spring AA compare to observations when internal variability is removed? 3) If internal variability is significant, what mechanisms drive it? To address these, we adapted the machine learning algorithm from Sweeney et al., training on simulated multidecadal spring SAT and sea level pressure (SLP) trend maps. Our results show that internal variability enhanced spring Arctic warming by 37% and reduced global warming by 10%. Removing internal variability reconciles the spring AA discrepancy. The estimated internal contribution to Arctic spring warming is supported by an independent dynamical adjustment approach. We identify an atmospheric circulation pattern in observations associated with this internal warming. Observed internal Siberian SAT and SLP trends follow the simulated SAT–SLP relationship but lie at the distribution’s extreme, suggesting models generally underestimate internal variability unless the observed configuration reflects a rare real-world realization.
Arctic↗
MSD CoP Webinar: Confronting Climate Change Complexity: Intersectionality, Integration, and Innovative Governance
Context: This webinar was hosted by the MultiSector Dynamics Community of Practice (MSD CoP; https://multisectordynamics.org). Abstract: Climate impacts increasingly unfold in interlinked systems of people, nature, and infrastructure. The cascading consequences are revealing sometimes surprising connections, and prospects for climate responses also depend on complex interactions. In this presentation, we will introduce key findings from the United States Fifth National Climate Assessment and build upon them to suggest a framework for understanding and responding to complex climate challenges. This approach involves: (1) integration of disciplines and expertise to understand how intersectionality shapes complex climate impacts and the wide-ranging effects of climate responses, (2) collaborations among diverse knowledge holders to improve responses and better encompass intersectionality, and (3) sustained experimentation with and learning about governance approaches capable of handling the complexity of climate change. We outline actionable steps for climate research to incorporate these pillars, as is increasingly necessary for confronting climate complexity and sustaining equitable, ideally vibrant climate futures. Presenters : Katharine J. Mach, Kripa Jagannathan, Carlos E. Martín, and Linda Shi Moderator: Pat M. Reed (MSD CoP Facilitation Team) This webinar was held on: March 28th, 2024 from 1-2 PM ET
Mach, Katharine J.↗
Aurora Detection From Nighttime Lights for Earth and Space Science Applications
This research leverages data from the Day/Night Band (DNB) of the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer (VIIRS) instrument onboard the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (S-NPP) satellite. We demonstrate the value of mining the VIIRS DNB for aurora and describe our use of unsupervised machine learning to create a binary mask for aurora occurrence. This mask can be used to flag aurora-contaminated observations for NASA's nighttime lights products for Earth science applications. The identification of auroral regions can also be used for Space Weather applications, for example, for comparison with aurora forecast model and with other satellite- or ground-based aurora observations. The DNB is a broadband channel that is sensitive to wavelengths from 500 to 900 nm, which covers most of the visible light spectrum, and as the name implies, captures light even at night with a sensitivity at the nanowatt level. This band is suitable for aurora observations since the light emitted by the aurora tends to be dominated by emissions from atomic oxygen, resulting in a greenish glow at a wavelength of 557.7 nm, especially at an altitude of 110 km. This study compares the global nighttime derived aurora regions for 17 and 18 March with the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center's (SWPC) probability product for the St. Patrick's Day geomagnetic storm in 2015. VIIRS sensors are slated to be added to the next generation of polar-orbiting operational satellites. Our novel automated approach to aurora identification opens up an efficient way to leverage this unique data source.
Aurora↗
Handling Qualities Flight Testing of the Stratospheric Observatory for Infrared Astronomy (SOFIA)
Airborne infrared astronomy has a long successful history, albeit relatively unknown outside of the astronomy community. A major problem with ground based infrared astronomy is the absorption and scatter of infrared energy by water in the atmosphere. Observing the universe from above 40,000 ft puts the observation platform above 99% of the water vapor in the atmosphere, thereby addressing this problem at a fraction of the cost of space based systems. The Stratospheric Observatory For Infrared Astronomy (SOFIA) aircraft is the most ambitious foray into the field of airborne infrared astronomy in history. Using a 747SP (The Boeing Company, Chicago, Illinois) aircraft modified with a 2.5m telescope located in the aft section of the fuselage, the SOFIA endeavors to provide views of the universe never before possible and at a fraction of the cost of space based systems. The modification to the airplane includes moveable doors and aperture that expose the telescope assembly. The telescope assembly is aimed and stabilized using a multitude of on board systems. This modification has the potential to cause aerodynamic anomalies that could induce undesired forces either at the cavity itself or indirectly due to interference with the empennage, both of which could cause handling qualities issues. As a result, an extensive analysis and flight test program was conducted from December 2009 through March 2011. Several methods, including a Lower Order Equivalent Systems analysis and pilot assessment, were used to ascertain the effects of the modification. The SOFIA modification was found to cause no adverse handling qualities effects and the aircraft was cleared for operational use. This paper discusses the history and modification to the aircraft, development of test procedures and analysis, results of testing and analysis, lessons learned for future projects and justification for operational certification.
Glaser, Scott T.↗
ISS Payload Operations Training During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Impacts and Solutions
Introduction: The onset and the protracted duration of the COVID-19 pandemic brought a dramatic and rapid transformation to almost every aspect of humanity in 2020. The world’s space agencies and their missions were not immune to the unpredictable and wide-sweeping changes. One discipline principally affected was mission operations and the various groups supporting that critical function. Mission support teams, especially for complex and crewed missions like the International Space Station (ISS) were forced to rapidly rethink how and where control center staff performed their vital work. Operations training – an essential element to mission ops, had unique hurdles to overcome. Operations training is responsible for preparing astronaut crews for their scientific missions, providing recurring proficiency and currency material to flight controllers, as well as ensuring new team members are ready to join their colleagues on console. Every element of training was impacted by COVID restrictions. From orientation and introductory classes for new controllers, training for scientists and payload developers, to simulations and advanced lessons, critical On the Job Training (OJT) and final evaluations; all aspects faced new challenges. Operations trainers at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) in Huntsville, Alabama, were forced to rethink, retool, and become more efficient with trainees and training resources in order to continue supporting payload operations on the ISS. Impacts and Barriers to Operations Training: The pandemic started in the United States in early March 2020. Immediately, NASA mandated that the support for ISS real-time operations was critical. As a result, physical access to the ISS Payload Operations Center was restricted to only those people supporting console operations. Thus, use of on-site NASA facilities and any trainer to trainee face-to-face interaction was not authorized. Trainers and trainees had to quickly shift to 100% remote learning. In the short term, this was not a problem since NASA had already prepared Information Technology (IT) resources that facilitated remote access to mission resources like classes, documents and teleconferences. However, instructors quickly discovered the classes that they were accustomed to delivering in a large classroom environment did not translate well to remote teaching. The lack of non-verbal communication with the class became a major barrier to instruction. Another significant hurdle to operations training was the mandate that all simulations could only be held remotely. The logistics of planning and executing even small simulations proved to be challenging, almost impossible, due to IT technology and public internet limitations. With simulations essentially stopped, as well as the restrictions on most OJT training, trainees were essentially stopped in their advancement towards certification. An additional barrier that had to be overcome was the formal documentation of the curriculum objectives. Even though NASA had been deliberately transitioning to electronic documents for years, some organizations were still relying on “pen and ink” documents to formalize training completion. The logistics of implementing secure and controlled e-signature documents in a standardized, NASA approved format had to be addressed. Lesson Learned and Efficiencies: Once the various limitations were identified, ISS trainers at MSFC discussed, proposed, and prioritized new options and techniques. Transitioning to all electronic learning materials and certifications was a relevantly easy fix. Teaching courses to large and diverse groups took additional shifts in the NASA training paradigm. Likewise, methods and procedures for preparing astronauts for their missions were forced to be revised. Simulation supervisors and their teams were also forced to find more efficient techniques to provide realistic training experience. Communication and approvals from management was essential. In every case, the ISS payload operations instructors found novel and efficient solutions to all functions listed above. This paper will discuss the factors and solutions payloads operations trainers found to keep scientific research on the ISS flying forward to mission success.
ISS Operations↗
Operational Integration Assessment (OIA) of Midterm UAM Operations: Class C Airspace Tabletop Exercise and Integration Checkpoint
The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), in collaboration with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), is conducting research into evolving today’s air traffic management system towards a more automated and operationally flexible airspace to accommodate Urban Air Mobility (UAM) operations at scale. UAM operations, enabled by electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing (eVTOL) aircraft, may change the role of aviation in the movement of people and goods and provide practical, cost-effective air transport in metropolitan areas. FAA UAM Concept of Operations v2.0 describes three evolutionary stages of UAM operations: Initial, Midterm, and Mature State operations. Midterm operations are comprised of many complex changes to the national airspace system (NAS). The Operational Integration Assessment (OIA) was created as a capability to address the need to study the progression and identify interdependencies of those changes that may occur during the midterm UAM operations timeframe. The OIA includes a series of tabletop exercises and integration checkpoints planned to explore various use cases from end-to-end, evaluated by NASA’s Air Traffic Management eXploration (ATM-X) project in partnership with the FAA’s William J. Hughes Technical Center (WJHTC) and industry partners. The use cases were exercised in an immersive, integrated live-virtual-constructive (LVC) airspace simulation environment, called the NASA/FAA Laboratory Integrated Test Environment (NFLITE), as part of an effort to learn how UAM operations can scale beyond the as-is NAS and through the transition to higher-tempo and highly automated operations of the future. This document describes the events of the tabletop exercise held from January 24-26, 2023, at the National Airspace Research & Technology Park (NARTP) in Egg Harbor Township, New Jersey, adjacent to the WJHTC and the subsequent integration checkpoint performed on March 28, 2023,at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) in Hampton, Virginia.
UAM↗
Dynamic and Responsive Distributed Energy Resource Education Solutions for Building, Fire, and Safety Department Officials (Final Technical Report)
From April 2021 through March 2024, the Interstate Renewable Energy Council (IREC) led a collaborative project to develop a free online clearinghouse of educational resources about solar photovoltaics (PV), energy storage systems (ESS), electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE), and grid-interactive efficient building (GEB) technologies. Two websites—the Clean Energy Clearinghouse and CleanEnergyTraining.org—housed over 70 educational resources. Over the course of the three-year project, 154,272 unique visitors accessed the learning materials. Learner feedback was overwhelmingly positive. Even through the end of the project, there was sustained demand for education and communication. A primary innovation of the project was to drive multiple complementary audiences to the same place. Building owners, designers, installation contractors and developers, authorities having jurisdiction (AHJs), and fire service personnel all benefit from a shared understanding of clean energy technologies, including safety and code-related requirements. When considering the impact on the target audience, the project team worked with partners and advisors to inform resource creation and delivery in such a way as to address key motivational factors of the target audience and compel each user to seek additional information on the topic and return to the Clean Energy Clearinghouse website as their central location for more information. Resources were intentionally developed to be concise—five to 15 minutes—and accessible, meaning not overly technical. Providing basic information demystified the technologies and invited the professional to explore additional learning opportunities. Awardee and partner collaboration was key to project success. IREC facilitated collaboration among the other Topic 2 awardees, Southface and New Buildings Institute (NBI). The three awardees shared relevant information gained through discovery and validation questionnaires that informed product development and reduced duplication of effort by coordinating the development of complementary, and not competing, educational resources. Inspired by this collaboration, IREC brought on additional partners even in the final year of the project. Five regional energy efficiency organizations were part of the project, which expanded the connection between efficiency and distributed energy resources. We also included resources on the Clearinghouse that were developed through other federally funded projects, such as the Buildings Energy Efficiency Frontiers & Innovation Technologies (BENEFIT) program. The website was developed with the learner in mind, and not solely the funding source. Feedback from stakeholders throughout the project, and especially in its final year, indicated the need for continued education and facilitated communication among stakeholders to further the safe and widespread adoption of clean energy.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Extended Life Testing of Duplex Ball Bearings
Sierra Nevada Corporation’s Space Systems performed bearing life testing for the Scan Mirror Motor/Encoder Assembly (SMMA), part of the Scan Mirror Assembly on-board the Aerosol Polarimetry Sensor (APS) on the NASA Glory Spacecraft. The baseline bearing life test duration extended beyond the launch date for the Glory Spacecraft; a risk that the program was willing to undertake with the understanding that if any anomalies or failures occurred before the required life was achieved, then the mission objectives or operating profile could be modified on orbit to take those results into account. Even though the Glory Spacecraft failed to reach orbit during its launch in March of 2011, the bearing life testing was continued through a mutual understanding of value between Sierra Nevada Corporation and our customer; with a revised goal of testing to failure rather than completing a required number of life cycles. Life testing thus far has not only exceeded the original mission required life, but has also exceeded the published test data for Cumulative Degradation Factor (CDF) from NASA/CR-2009-215681. Many lessons were learned along the way regarding long life testing. The bearing life test has been temporarily suspended due to test support equipment issues.
Mobley, Jeffrey↗
Summary Report of the SOS26 Workshop held March 11-14, 2024
The SOS26 workshop was organized by Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and held March 11-14, 2024, at Cocoa Beach, Florida. The SOS is a workshop organized annually, with a focus on distributed high performance computing (HPC). The technical program of the workshop was developed jointly by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), ORNL and the Swiss National Supercomputing Center (CSCS). The 2024 SOS26 workshop theme was "Versatile HPC for the evolving and expanding needs of science" and had seven technical sessions covering HPC, data and machine learning (ML) topics. Each session consisted of four or five presentations, followed by a panel discussion. This report documents the workshop proceedings covering all the technical sessions.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Subseasonal Forecasting and MJO Teleconnections in Machine Learning Weather Prediction Models
Abstract In recent years, machine‐learning (ML) models trained on reanalysis data have rivaled physics‐based forecast models in terms of performance skill for global weather forecasting. With increased rollout stability, the question of how these models perform for subseasonal to seasonal (S2S, week 3–8) forecasting has emerged. In this study we run a large set of subseasonal hindcasts over 2004–2023 to evaluate two ML weather forecast models at the S2S time scale, SFNO‐HENS (Nvidia, fully ML) and NeuralGCM (Google Research, hybrid). Corresponding hindcasts from the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are used as a baseline for comparison to a physics‐based model. Because our focus is on predicting moisture transport over the Western United States between October and March, we evaluate the models' prediction skill for the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) and its associated teleconnections in the North Pacific. We find that both ML models are competitive with the ECWMF model, with comparable skill in predicting the North Pacific large‐scale circulation and the MJO at week 3 and beyond. Even though overall the mid‐latitude subseasonal prediction skill remains low, the ML models exhibit interesting behavior such as a realistic propagation of the MJO across the Maritime Continent and realistic teleconnections. A SFNO‐HENS sensitivity experiment with altered initial conditions in the tropics demonstrates the stability of the model, and it illustrates the capability of ML models to represent important physical processes of the atmosphere at the S2S time scale. Plain Language Summary Predicting weather patterns and precipitation a few weeks in advance (subseasonal time scale) is of great interest for stakeholders such as water managers in the Southwest United States (US), where arid conditions prevail. Subseasonal forecasts from traditional weather forecast models exhibit low skill in the region, limiting their applicability. Here we examine whether the recent breakthrough in weather forecasting made with machine learning/artificial intelligence models can translate to improved subseasonal forecasts. Recently‐developed machine learning models exhibit comparable skill to a state‐of‐the‐art physics‐based model for predicting weather patterns in the North Pacific/North America region, and associated moisture transport. The same applies to their skill in predicting the tropical pattern, the Madden‐Julian Oscillation, and its important remote perturbations over the midlatitude East Pacific and Southwest US. Additionally, a perturbation experiment carried out with one of the machine learning models illustrates their ability to not only predict the evolution of atmospheric fields, but also to learn and represent physical processes such as tropics‐extratropics Rossby wave propagation. Key Points Two machine learning weather forecast models exhibit state‐of‐the‐art prediction skill at the subseasonal time scale in the Pacific sector The models equal ECWMF in terms of Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) prediction skill, and they accurately predict the MJO propagation and associated teleconnections The two machine‐learning models represent key physical processes for subseasonal prediction, despite being trained for weather forecasting
Peings, Yannick↗