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DOE OSTI2025

AGR-5/6/7 Thermal Model with Non-uniform Gas Gaps

Fuel compact temperatures are a crucial factor in assessing the irradiation performance of tri-structural isotropic fuel particles. In the absence of direct measurement, fuel compact temperatures were calculated using a three-dimensional finite element thermal model, which is subject to simulation uncertainty. The most dominant factor in the uncertainty of calculated fuel temperatures is the gas gap uncertainty due to the nub-to-shell clearance caused by a design error of AGR-5/6/7 capsules. The thermal model was revised to examine the most probable graphite offset position for six different days during the irradiation for Capsules 1 and 2. The analysis varied the offset distance and azimuthal direction at both the top and bottom of the holder. The best-fit offset was estimated based on the minimum root mean square error of the residuals (measured minus calculated) for the operational thermocouples (TCs). From these results, the following conclusions were made: (1) The holder offsets led to slightly lower average temperatures but wider temperature variations (lower minimum and higher peak fuel temperatures) for both Capsule 1 and Capsule 2. (2) During earlier cycles (162A–164B), when numerous TCs were still operational, the best-fit offset distance varied over a specific range for both the top and bottom ([0.002–0.0035 in.] for Capsule 1 and [0.003-0.004 in] for Capsule 2). In contrast, the offset azimuthal direction varied widely, especially for the offset at the bottom of the Capsule 1 holder. This is because holder movement was somewhat constrained at the top of Capsule 1 by the TC leads running through the capsule head and into the holder and by the through tubes in Capsule 2, but the Capsule 1 bottom did not have this type of constraint. (3) During later cycles, when all TCs failed, applying the maximum possible offset of 0.006 in. to the northwest direction for both the top and bottom resulted in a calculated peak fuel temperature of 1557? in Capsule 1 (i.e., a 135? increase from 1422? with zero offset on September 20, 2019 (166A)); the maximum offset of 0.0068 in. to the south for both top and bottom resulted in a calculated peak fuel temperature of 1110°C in Capsule 2 on April 20, 2020 (i.e., a 116? increase from 994? with zero offset (168A)). High peak fuel temperatures in Capsule 1 during Cycle 166A could be the cause of massive particle failure near the end of this cycle. (4) Even though the highest temperature at the tip of Type-N TCs, such as TC-1-7, slightly exceeded 1000?, the temperature along the TC wire reached as high as 1335? assuming an offset of 0.006 in. in the northwest of Capsule 1 holder near the end of Cycle 166A. This temperature significantly exceeds the temperature threshold at which TC degradation is expected to occur, ultimately contributing to considerable particle failures in Capsule 1. For eight Type-N TCs in Capsule 2, the peak TC line temperature was much lower (i.e., 1029°C for TC-2-5), assuming maximum offset of 00068 in. to the south during cycle 168A.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2025

HDG-1 Graphite Preirradiation Data Package Report

This report documents all pre-irradiation examination material-property measurement data for graphite specimens that are going to be used within the first high dose graphite (HDG) -1 irradiation capsule. The two new HDG capsules signify a major change to the AGC Experiment. HDG-1 and HDG-2 will replace the last two Advanced Graphite Creep (AGC) capsules (AGC-5 and AGC-6) which were designed to irradiate graphite at the extreme upper operational temperatures for a very-high-temperature reactor (VHTR) design, 1100°C. These very high temperature AGC-5 and AGC-6 capsules have been repurposed to re-irradiated specimens (from AGC-2, AGC-3, and AGC-4) at the lower temperatures of 600°C and 800°C. HDG-1 will be irradiated at 600°C and HDG-2 will be irradiated at 800°C. By re-irradiating the previous AGC specimens a total maximum neutron dose of around 15 dpa (displacements per atom) can be achieved for all major graphite grades at irradiation temperatures of 600°C and 800°C. Specimens in the HDG-1 capsule are made up of previously irradiated specimens from the AGC-2 capsule and unirradiated specimens prepared for the now discontinued AGC-5 capsule. Utilizing the irradiated specimens, a maximum neutron dose of around 15 dpa is anticipated. These new maximum dose levels will provide irradiated material property data over a total neutron dose range of 1-15 dpa at a temperature of 600°C when combined with the previous AGC-1 and AGC-2 irradiation data. This will provide quantitative data necessary for predicting the irradiation behavior and operating performance of new nuclear graphite grades for use within high temperature reactor designs. Similar to previous AGC test trains, HDG-1 includes the major graphite grades (IG-110, NBG-17, NBG-18, PCEA, and 2114) as well as adding the very fine-grain grade IG-430 which is of interest to the Molten Salt Reactor (MSR) designs. Also new to the HDG-1 capsule are 90 smaller geometry specimens designated as pencil specimens. These specimens take up only one third the space of a standard creep size specimen. This increased number of specimens will enhance property measurement statistics because they will provide 3 times the control specimen data at a position that would otherwise only have a single measurement.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Heat Transfer Experiments of a 1st Stage Blade Cascade for Supercritical CO2 Oxy-Combustion Turbine Application

The results of internally cooled 1st stage blade (S1B) cascade testing in a supercritical CO2 environment is presented. The turbine blade design has been previously established for the end application of an oxy-combustion turbine operating in the Allam-Fetvedt cycle with turbine inlet conditions of 305 bar and 1150°C. The internally cooled blade features leading edge (LE) region impingement cooling, mid-section ribbed serpentine passages, and a pin-finned trailing edge (TE) region before cooling ejection holes. The geometry for the tested blade cascade has a cooled central blade with un-cooled blades on either side to match flowpath areas of the actual turbine. The flowpath reuses internal components previously employed for mid-section region ribbed serpentine passage experiments that established Nusselt number enhancement ratios over a range of Reynolds numbers from 100,000-400,000. New components include flow conditioning plates upstream and downstream of the blade cascade to adequately represent the flow field and blade external heat transfer coefficient profiles for the actual turbine. The cooled central blade utilizes uniform crystal temperature sensors (UCTS) with six sensors each on the blade pressure and suction surfaces distributed radially and from LE to TE. The post-processed UCTS quantified the maximum wall temperature seen at each installed sensor location. The test procedure consisted of establishing supercritical CO2 cooling flow temperature and flow rate and maintaining it throughout the test. The flow rate aims to match that for the actual in-service turbine blade design and is maintained through an orifice restriction to keep the pressure differential between internal cooling flow and external hot flow nearly constant. For the sCO2 flow path external to the blade, temperatures were ramped throughout the test via control of the test loop’s natural gas burner heater. The maximum temperature seen was 468°C and held constant for a duration of 10 minutes at which the blade metal temperature was predicted to be at its maximum before ramping down. For the turbine blade design for service inlet conditions, external flow path computational fluid dynamics (CFD) results and an internal cooling 1-D thermal and hydraulic flow network model using experimentally validated correlations served as thermal finite element (FE) boundary conditions to predict blade metal temperatures. These predicted temperatures were subsequently utilized in a structural FE model to predict blade life ratings dictated by Haynes 282 creep strength data, having a strong dependence on temperature. The boundary conditions experienced during testing are used in the same workflow and compared to the experimental results, with the goal of validating the analysis methodology and providing insight on the uncertainty in local metal temperature predictions.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Methodology to determine printability criteria of highly concentrated pastes through rheological characterization

Material extrusion is an additive manufacturing technique that enables the creation of reproducible and complex hardware by depositing a viscous, shear-thinning ink onto a substrate in a custom-pattern via extrusion through a syringe. Here, the ability of an ink to be extruded onto a substrate in many layers, and maintain the desired shape is what defines the printability. Printability is often investigated by formulating, printing, and postmortem analysis of final parts in an iterative manner. Investigations of printability through rheological characterization have often been concerned with inks that straddle the line between printable and too thin, leaving out an entire class of inks that are highly-filled pastes, where extrudability is the limiting factor. Highly-filled pastes continue to pose issues for researchers as the effect of filler morphology, size, loading, and packing fraction on the ink rheology and corresponding printability is not understood. While traditional rheological characterizations may be useful for some inks, we show that protocols utilizing steady-shear, or large-amplitude oscillatory shear are difficult and unreliable for highly-filled pastes. Through transient rheology paired with real-time images we show that each traditional protocol produces inhomogeneous deformations that violate the assumptions that underly common rheological definitions. Instead, we demonstrate metrics measured with small-amplitude oscillatory shear that are correlated to the printability of various ink formulations ranging in loading. The rheological measures that accurately predict the printability of the inks are the axial stress measured at small amplitudes, and the critical stress amplitude above which rheological characterizations become impossible. In addition, we estimate the maximum packing fraction for each filler, based on the exponent common to hard sphere models, and show that the printability of each ink can be predicted by the ratio of the packing fraction to the theoretical maximum. We show how small-amplitude oscillatory shear allows users to develop printability criteria for any ink to enhance the workflow in the development of new inks, increase the performance of material extrusion printing, and improve the stability of printed parts, with less wasted time and materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Performance measurement of emerging 3- and 4-terminal tandem solar cells

Tandem solar cells are not limited to the conventional two-terminal (2-T) configuration. Multi-terminal designs like three-terminal (3-T) and four-terminal (4-T) devices have gained increasing attention in the PV community due to their relaxed current-matching requirement between subcells and their potential for enhanced energy yield. However, reliable and standardized methods for evaluating the performance of multi-terminal tandems remain underdeveloped. This work addresses this gap by providing comprehensive measurement guidelines tailored to these advanced configurations. We examine key coupling mechanisms between subcells, including the shared electrical load in 3-T devices and optical luminescent coupling in both 3-T and 4-T devices, to enable accurate and consistent performance evaluation. Furthermore, we propose two stabilized measurement methods for emerging 3-T tandem cells incorporating perovskite subcells: (1) a two-dimensional maximum-power-point tracking (MPPT) approach that continuously tracks both subcells' maximum power points (P MAX ) until convergence to stabilized outputs, and (2) a hybrid approach that combines MPPT for one subcell with stabilized current recording under fixed voltage biases near the P MAX of the other, allowing robust extraction of the overall stabilized P MAX (termed “MPPT + asymptotic P MA X scan” method). These methods directly address the dynamic current responses inherent to perovskite-containing tandems, providing a foundation for meaningful and reproducible performance comparisons.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Postfault Operation of Three-Level Inverter Driven Six-Phase PMSM With Enhanced Torque–Speed Region

This article presents an open-switch postfault operational technique with enhanced torque–speed region for three-level (3L) active neutral point clamped (ANPC) inverter-driven symmetrical six-phase (SSP) permanent magnet synchronous machines (PMSMs). Maximum torque (MT), minimum loss (ML), and single three-phase (STP) operations are commonly used for the postfault operations of six-phase drives. The maximum possible torque and speed in these operations are generally limited by voltage, current ratings, and the neutral point configuration of the motor. To enhance the postfault torque and speed operating region, the torque and speed limits in different postfault operational techniques are determined based on the voltage, current constraints, and neutral point configuration of the SSP-PMSM. In this work, a unified postfault operation is proposed that increases the postfault operational limits by combining MT, ML, and STP operations and modifying the neutral point configuration of the SSP-PMSM. In addition, a technique is also presented that modifies the pulsewidth modulation technique to enable full torque operation below 0.5 p.u. speed. The proposed postfault operational technique enables full-speed (1 p.u.) operation by operating in STP mode and full torque operation (1 p.u.) below 0.5 p.u. speed. Furthermore, the postfault operational technique is experimentally validated using a Gallium Nitride (GaN) device-based3L-ANPC inverter-driven SSP-PMSM.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Convergence Analysis for an Online Data-Driven Feedback Control Algorithm

This paper presents convergence analysis of a novel data-driven feedback control algorithm designed for generating online controls based on partial noisy observational data. The algorithm comprises a particle filter-enabled state estimation component, estimating the controlled system’s state via indirect observations, alongside an efficient stochastic maximum principle-type optimal control solver. By integrating weak convergence techniques for the particle filter with convergence analysis for the stochastic maximum principle control solver, we derive a weak convergence result for the optimization procedure in search of optimal data-driven feedback control. Numerical experiments are performed to validate the theoretical findings.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Ink Casting and 3D‐Extrusion Printing of Yb 14 MnSb 11 for High‐Temperature Thermoelectric Material

Abstract Complex shapes are created from Yb 14 MnSb 11 , a high‐temperature thermoelectric Zintl phase, via a two‐step process: i) layer‐by‐layer 3D‐extrusion of ink containing partially‐reacted powders which are ball‐milled from a blend of Yb, MnSb, and Sb powders; ii) heat treatment to synthesize the ternary compound Yb 14 MnSb 11 and densify the extruded powders. A high phase purity for Yb 14 MnSb 11 (83–94%) is achieved in both cast and 3D‐extruded ink specimens via a solid‐state reaction between Yb, MnSb, and Yb 4 Sb 3 during reactive sintering. Pressure‐free sintering at temperatures of 1200–1400 °C densifies the powders to 82% relative density but can also induce the decomposition of the Yb 14 MnSb 11 phase due to Yb sublimation. A process window with optimized sintering temperature and time is identified, achieving both low porosity and high phase purity and reaching a maximum zT = 0.61 at 1000 °C, about half of the maximum zT value for bulk Yb 14 MnSb 11 made via conventional processes (pressure sintering of precursor powders). The present approach – direct ink writing of ball‐milled powders, combined with reactive sintering – is a scalable and affordable method to fabricate thermoelectric legs with intricate 3D shapes, for enhanced performances in high‐temperature thermoelectric applications.

Chen, Ming [Department of Materials Science &amp, ↗

DOE OSTI2024

Birefringent Color Filter by Layered Metal‐Organic Chalcogenides: In‐Plane Anisotropy and Odd/Even Effect

Anisotropic 2D materials are gaining interest recently as building blocks for angular‐dependent optical/electrical devices. However, the fundamental understanding of their structure‐property‐relationship is limited, which hinders further modulation of their unique characteristics via structure tailoring. Here the in‐plane structural anisotropy and the tunable optical/electrical properties of a series of radiation‐sensitive (X‐ray, e‐beam) metal‐organic chalcogenide (MOC) single crystals are comprehensively revealed with ligands of variable length/parity. Their monoclinic crystallography is determined at atomic resolution by a simple method that couples X‐ray/electron diffraction with first‐principles calculations. The in‐plane inorganic backbone of the MOCs exhibits a strong lattice anisotropy with odd/even alternations, which originates from that of the out‐of‐plane organic motifs via organic/inorganic accommodation. Such structural anisotropy is implied mechanically by the preferred orientation of crystal cleavage. It triggers a maximum ≈8 × distinction of in‐plane electrical conductivity of the semiconducting MOCs, plus a distinct birefringence (maximum Δn ≈ 0.03) with a dispersive orientation of dielectric axes, which rotate up to 25.7° from UV to visible‐light regime, inspiring an emerging pathway for color filtering via single crystal rotation. Such in‐plane optical characteristics also exhibit odd/even alternation and can be flexibly tuned by the designable out‐of‐plane ligands.

birefringence↗

DOE OSTI2025

Interactions Enhance Ramp Reversal Memory in Locally Phase Separated Materials

The ramp-reversal memory (RRM) effect in metal–insulator transition metal oxides (TMOs), a non-volatile resistance change induced by repeated temperature cycling, has attracted considerable interest in neuromorphic computing and non-volatile memory devices. Our previous defect motion model successfully explained RRM in vanadium dioxide (VO 2 ), capturing observed critical temperature shifts and memory accumulation throughout the sample. However, this approach lacked interactions between metallic and insulating domains. Here, we extend our model by combining a correlated Random Field Ising Model with defect diffusion-segregation, enabling accurate hysteresis modeling while predicting the relationship between RRM and domain interactions. Our simulations demonstrate that the maximum RRM occurs when the turnaround temperature approaches the inflection point. This peak in RRM vs. turnaround temperature is consistent with prior transport measurements, as well as our own optical measurements reported here. Significantly, we find that increasing nearest-neighbor interactions enhances the maximum memory effect, thus providing a clear mechanism for optimizing RRM performance. Since our model employs minimal assumptions, we predict that RRM should be a widespread phenomenon in materials exhibiting patterned phase coexistence of electronic domains. This work not only advances fundamental understanding of memory behavior in TMOs but also establishes a much-needed theoretical framework for optimizing device applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Volcano‐like Activity Trends in Au@Pd Catalysts: The Role of Pd Loading and Nanoparticle Size

The addition of palladium (Pd) to preformed gold nanoparticles (Au NPs) enables the formation of core‐shell structures with enhanced catalytic performance in oxidation reactions. However, predicting the precise palladium content required to achieve maximum catalytic activity remains difficult based on current understanding. Herein, Pd was systematically introduced onto titania‐supported Au NPs (2, 6, and 10 nm) to evaluate their performance in benzyl alcohol oxidation. A volcano‐like trend in catalytic activity was observed, where activity increased with Pd addition, peaked, and then declined. The Pd loading required for maximum activity depended on Au NP size: ≈40 at% Pd/Au for 2.6 nm, ≈20 at% Pd/Au for 6.4 nm, and ≈12.5 at% Pd/Au for 10.6 nm. For Au NPs > 6 nm, peak activity aligned with monolayer Pd coverage, while for smaller NPs (2–3 nm), optimal Pd content was below monolayer predictions. X‐ray absorption spectroscopy revealed a core‐shell structure at low Pd content, but higher Pd loadings led to Pd diffusion into the Au core. This structural transformation likely caused activity decline, indicating that AuPd alloying negatively impacts catalysis. These results highlight that core‐shell Au@Pd catalysts outperform AuPd alloys and provide crucial insights for designing highly active bimetallic catalysts.

X-ray absorption spectroscopy↗

DOE OSTI2025

Positive Co‐Degree Density of Hypergraphs

The minimum positive co-degree of a nonempty r-graph H, denoted $δ^+_{r-1}$ (H), is the maximum k such that if S is an (r-1)-set contained in a hyperedge of H, then is contained in at least distinct hyperedges of H. Given an r-graph F, we introduce the positive co-degree Turán number co + ex(n, F) as the maximum positive co-degree $δ^+_{r-1}$ (H) over all n-vertex r-graphs H that do not contain F as a subhypergraph. In this paper, we concentrate on the behavior of co + ex(n, F) for 3-graphs F. In particular, we determine asymptotics and bounds for several well-known concrete 3-graphs F (e.g. $K^-_4$ and the Fano plane). Here, we also show that, for r-graphs, the limit γ + (F)≔ lim$_{n→∞}$ $\frac{co^+ex(n, F)}{n}$ exists, and “jumps” from 0 to 1/r, that is, it never takes on values in the interval . Moreover, we characterize which r-graphs F have γ + (F) = 0. Our motivation comes primarily from the study of (ordinary) co-degree Turán numbers where a number of results have been proved that inspire our results.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Implications of Changes in Water Stress and Precipitation Extremes for Cocoa Production in Côte D'ivoire and Ghana

ABSTRACT Climate change induces high variability in drought patterns and extreme precipitation indices in rainfed cocoa farming, impacting cocoa production. This study evaluated water stress, meteorological and agricultural drought conditions, and critical extreme precipitation indices in the world's two largest cocoa‐producing nations from 1981 to 2022. The results revealed a significant reduction in total annual precipitation (PRCPTOT), in the last three decades, with the greatest decline in the 1991–2000 and 2011–2022 periods. Ghana experienced the most significant reduction up to 15% (200 mm/year) in the last decade, attributed to a substantial decrease in wet days number (RR1) up to 25 days per year, a reduction in maximum consecutive wet days (CWD) up to 6 days per year, and an increase in maximum consecutive dry days (CDD) up to 15 days per year. Moreover, there was a notable decline in the Simple Daily Intensity Index (SDII), with reductions of up to 4 mm/day in certain areas, contributing to increased drought frequency, severity, and duration. In the most recent decade (2011–2022), particularly during the extremely dry years of 2013 and 2015, cocoa‐growing regions in Ghana (GHA) and eastern Côte d'Ivoire (CIV) experienced prolonged agricultural drought expressed by soil moisture deficit, typically extending from May to September. Additionally, large portions of central and eastern Ghana, as well as northeastern Côte d'Ivoire experienced sustained water stress, with over three consecutive months of total monthly precipitation falling below 100 mm, negatively impacting cocoa productivity. The decrease in the yield in the range of 2.5% to 37% was noted in the dry years and the following years, varying according to the country depending on the severity of the drought. Sensitivity analysis highlights cocoa yield's responsiveness to drought and water stress, particularly in specific years when water stress occurred, such as 1984,1985, 1989, 1995, 1999, 2000, and 2008. Considering the observed trends in precipitation patterns and their impact on cocoa production, it is crucial to acknowledge the inherent uncertainty of future precipitation patterns due to climate change. To address this challenge effectively, our study underscores the importance of identifying and closely monitoring regions currently facing water stress, as determined by precipitation and drought indicators. Over the analysed period (1981–2022), we have noted shifts in the distribution of water‐stressed areas, highlighting the dynamic nature of this issue. Consequently, we advocate for a targeted approach to implement cocoa supplementary irrigation in consistently water‐stressed regions.

Obahoundje, Salomon [International Water Managemen↗

DOE OSTI2024

Investigation of thermal damage in explosive bridgewire detonators via discrete element method simulations

Exploding bridgewire (EBW) detonators are used to rapidly and reliably initiate energetic reactions by exploding a bridgewire via Joule heating. While the mechanisms of EBW detonators have been studied extensively in nominal conditions, comparatively few studies have addressed thermally damaged detonator operability. We present a mesoscale simulation study of thermal damage in a representative EBW detonator, using discrete element method (DEM) simulations that explicitly account for individual particles in the pressed explosive powder. We use a simplified model of melting, where solid spherical particles undergo uniform shrinking, and fluid dynamics are ignored. The subsequent settling of particles results in the formation of a gap between the solid powder and the bridgewire, which we study under different conditions. In particular, particle cohesion has a significant effect on gap formation and settling behavior, where sufficiently high cohesion leads to coalescence of particles into a free-standing pellet. This behavior is qualitatively compared to experimental visualization data, and simulations are shown to capture several key changes in pellet shape. We derive a minimum and maximum limit on gap formation during melting using simple geometric arguments. In the absence of cohesion, results agree with the maximum gap size. With increasing cohesion, the gap size decreases, eventually saturating at the minimum limit. In conclusion, we present results for different combinations of interparticle cohesion and detonator orientations with respect to gravity, demonstrating the complex behavior of these systems and the potential for DEM simulations to capture a range of scenarios.

cohesive powders↗

DOE OSTI2024

Antisolvent‐Mediated Air Quench for High‐Efficiency Air‐Processed Carbon‐Based Planar Perovskite Solar Cells

Perovskite solar cells (PSCs) have becoma a leading low‐cost photovoltaic technology, achieving power conversion efficiencies (PCEs) of up to 26.1%. However, their commercialization is hindered by stability issues and the need for controlled processing environments. Carbon‐electrode‐based PSCs (C‐PSCs) offer enhanced stability and cost‐effectiveness compared to traditional metal‐electrode PSCs, i.e., Au and Ag. However, processing challenges persist, particularly in air conditions where moisture sensitivity poses a significant hurdle. Herein, a novel air processing technique is presented for planar C‐PSCs that incorporates antisolvent vapors, such as chlorobenzene, into a controlled air‐quenching process. This method effectively mitigates moisture‐induced instability, resulting in champion PCEs exceeding 20% and robust stability under ambient conditions. The approach retains 80% of initial efficiency after 30 h of operation at maximum power point without encapsulation. This antisolvent‐mediated air‐quenching technique represents a significant advancement in the scalable production of C‐PSCs, paving the way for future large‐scale deployment.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Beyond the Holographic Entropy Cone via Cycle Flows

Motivated by bit threads, we introduce a new prescription for computing entropy vectors outside the holographic entropy cone. By utilizing cycle flows on directed graphs, we show that the maximum cycle flow associated to any subset of vertices, which corresponds to a subsystem, manifestly obeys purification symmetry. Furthermore, by restricting ourselves to a subclass of directed graphs, we prove that the maximum cycle flow obeys both subadditivity and strong subadditivity, thereby establishing it as a viable candidate for the entropy associated to the subsystem. Lastly, we demonstrate how our model generalizes the entropy vectors obtainable via conventional flows in undirected graphs, as well as conjecture that our model similarly generalizes the entropy vectors arising from hypergraphs.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Recalibration of missing low-frequency variability and trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation

Abstract Multi-decadal trends in the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are under-represented by coupled general circulation models (CGCMs), consistent with a lack of autocorrelation in their NAO index series. This study proposes and tests two simple “reddening” approaches for correcting this problem in simulated indices based on simple one parameter short-term (AR; Auto-Regressive order 1) and long-term (FD; Fractional-Difference) time series filters. Using CGCMs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), the FD filter successfully improves the autocorrelation structure of the NAO, and in turn the simulation of extreme trends, while the AR filter is less successful. The 1963–1993 NAO trend is the maximum 31-year trend in the historical period. Raw CGCMs underestimate the likelihood of this trend by a factor of ten but this discrepancy is corrected after reddening. CMIP6 future projections show that long-term (2024–2094) NAO ensemble mean trends systematically increase with the magnitude of radiative forcing: -2.4 to 3.5 hPa/century for low-to-high forcing after reddening (more than double the range using raw output). The related likelihood of future maximum 31year trends comparable to 1963–1993 ranges from 3 to 7% whereas none of these CMIP6 projections simulate this without reddening. Near-term projections of the next 31 years (2024–2054) are less sensitive than long term trends to the future scenario, showing weak-to-no forced trend. However, reddening increases the ensemble range by 74% (to +/-1 standard deviation/decade), which could increase/decrease regional climate change signals in the Northern Hemisphere by magnitudes that are underestimated when using raw CGCM output.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2024

Developing a Control Strategy for Minimum Airflow Setting Considering CO2 Level and Energy Consumption in a Variable Air Volume System

In an office building equipped with a Variable Air Volume (VAV) system, this paper introduces a novel method for controlling the minimum supply airflow fraction in each zone’s VAV box, having a capability to consider indoor CO2 level and energy consumption. The EnergyPlus simulation using the medium office prototype model was employed, which evaluated the performance of the energy and CO2 concentration for five VAV box airflow control strategies. The paper focuses on CO2 concentration-based airflow control method and compares it with other four methods including conventional single-max, reduced minimum single-max, demand-controlled ventilation(DCV), and dualmax control methods according to guidelines and common practices. The newly proposed control strategy directly correlates the minimum airflow fraction to CO2 concentration. A general trend emerged when comparing CO2 concentrations—lower minimum airflow fractions were associated with higher concentrations. The proposed control method effectively maintained low CO2 concentrations and enabled a lower airflow fraction contributing to energy consumption reduction. It was confirmed that heating energy consumption in climate zone 4A, 5B, and 6A showed a maximum saving of approximately 30% compared to the conventional single-max and dual max control strategies. It was found that cooling energy consumption in climate zone 4A and 6A can achieve a maximum saving of approximately 10% compared to the conventional control strategies. The proposed CO2 concentration-based control logic is promising as it not only improves the indoor air quality lowering the CO2 concentration in the occupied spaces, but also contributes to HVAC energy savings.

Lee, Jong Man↗