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The Impact of Microphysics and Planetary Boundary Layer Physics on Model Simulation of U.S. Deep South Summer Convection

Inspection of output from various configurations of high-resolution, explicit convection forecast models such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model indicates significant sensitivity to the choices of model physics pararneterizations employed. Some of the largest apparent sensitivities are related to the specifications of the cloud microphysics and planetary boundary layer physics packages. In addition, these sensitivities appear to be especially pronounced for the weakly-sheared, multicell modes of deep convection characteristic of the Deep South of the United States during the boreal summer. Possible ocean-land sensitivities also argue for further examination of the impacts of using unique ocean-land surface initialization datasets provided by the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRn Center to select NOAAlNWS weather forecast offices. To obtain better quantitative understanding of these sensitivities and also to determine the utility of the ocean-land initialization data, we have executed matrices of regional WRF forecasts for selected convective events near Mobile, AL (MOB), and Houston, TX (HGX). The matrices consist of identically initialized WRF 24-h forecasts using any of eight microphysics choices and any of three planetary boWldary layer choices. The resulting 24 simulations performed for each event within either the MOB or HGX regions are then compared to identify the sensitivities of various convective storm metrics to the physics choices. Particular emphasis is placed on sensitivities of precipitation timing, intensity, and coverage, as well as amount and coverage oflightuing activity diagnosed from storm kinematics and graupel in the mixed phase layer. The results confirm impressions gleaned from study of the behavior of variously configured WRF runs contained in the ensembles produced each spring at the Center for the Analysis and Prediction of Storms, but with the benefit of more straightforward control of the physics package choices. The design of the experiments thus allows for more direct interpretation of the sensitivities to each possible physics combination. The results should assist forecasters in their efforts to anticipate and correct for possible biases in simulated WRF convection patterns, and help the modeling community refine their model parameterizations.

McCaul, Eugene W., Jr.

The Impacts of Microphysics and Planetary Boundary Layer Physics on Model Simulations of U.S. Deep South Summer Convection

Convection-allowing numerical weather simula- tions have often been shown to produce convective storms that have significant sensitivity to choices of model physical parameterizations. Among the most important of these sensitivities are those related to cloud microphysics, but planetary boundary layer parameterizations also have a significant impact on the evolution of the convection. Aspects of the simulated convection that display sensitivity to these physics schemes include updraft size and intensity, simulated radar reflectivity, timing and placement of storm initi- ation and decay, total storm rainfall, and other storm features derived from storm structure and hydrometeor fields, such as predicted lightning flash rates. In addition to the basic parameters listed above, the simulated storms may also exhibit sensitivity to im- posed initial conditions, such as the fields of soil temper- ature and moisture, vegetation cover and health, and sea and lake water surface temperatures. Some of these sensitivities may rival those of the basic physics sensi- tivities mentioned earlier. These sensitivities have the potential to disrupt the accuracy of short-term forecast simulations of convective storms, and thereby pose sig- nificant difficulties for weather forecasters. To make a systematic study of the quantitative impacts of each of these sensitivities, a matrix of simulations has been performed using all combinations of eight separate microphysics schemes, three boundary layer schemes, and two sets of initial conditions. The first version of initial conditions consists of the default data from large-scale operational model fields, while the second features specialized higher- resolution soil conditions, vegetation conditions and water surface temperatures derived from datasets created at NASA's Short-term Prediction and Operational Research Tran- sition (SPoRT) Center at the National Space Science and Technology Center (NSSTC) in Huntsville, AL. Simulations as outlined above, each 48 in number, were conducted for five midsummer weakly sheared coastal convective events each at two sites, Mobile, AL (MOB) and Houston, TX (HGX). Of special interest to operational forecasters at MOB and HGX were accuracy of timing and placement of convective storm initiation, reflectivity magnitudes and coverage, rainfall and inferred lightning threat.

McCaul, Eugene W., Jr.

Application of PoF Based Virtual Qualification Methods for Reliability Assessment of Mission Critical PCBs

Reliability is the ability of a product to perform the function for which it was intended for a specified period of time (or cycles) for a given set of life cycle conditions. In today's compressed mission development cycles where designing, building and testing the physical models has to occur in a matter of months not years, Projects don't have the luxury of iteratively building and testing those models. Physics of failure (PoF) is an engineering-based approach to reliability that begins with an understanding of materials, processes, physical interactions, degradation and failure mechanisms, as well as identifying failure models. The PoF approach uses modeling and simulation to qualify a design and manufacturing process, with the ultimate intent of eliminating failures early in the design process by addressing the root cause. The physics-of-failure analysis proactively incorporates reliability into the design process by establishing a scientific basis for evaluating new materials, structures and technologies. Virtual physics-of-failure modeling allows engineers to determine if new technological node can be added to an existing system. This presentation will illustrate an application of a PoF based tool during the initial phases of a printed circuit board assembly development and how the NASA GSFC team was able to dynamically study the effects of electronics parts and printed circuit board material configuration changes under simulated thermal and vibrational stresses.

Physics of Failure

Application of PoF Based Virtual Qualification Methods for Reliability Assessment of Mission Critical PCBs

Reliability is the ability of a product to perform the function for which it was intended for a specified period of time (or cycles) for a given set of life cycle conditions. In today's compressed mission development cycles where designing, building and testing the physical models has to occur in a matter of months not years, Projects don't have the luxury of iteratively building and testing those models. Physics of failure (PoF) is an engineering-based approach to reliability that begins with an understanding of materials, processes, physical interactions, degradation and failure mechanisms, as well as identifying failure models. The PoF approach uses modeling and simulation to qualify a design and manufacturing process, with the ultimate intent of eliminating failures early in the design process by addressing the root cause. The physics-of-failure analysis proactively incorporates reliability into the design process by establishing a scientific basis for evaluating new materials, structures and technologies. Virtual physics-of-failure modeling allows engineers to determine if new technological node can be added to an existing system. This presentation will illustrate an application of a PoF based tool during the initial phases of a printed circuit board assembly development and how the NASA GSFC team was able to dynamically study the effects of electronics parts and printed circuit board material configuration changes under simulated thermal and vibrational stresses

Electronics packaging

Transfer-AE: A novel autoencoder-based impact detection model for structural digital twin

Accurately detecting the location and intensity of impacts is crucial for ensuring structural safety. Currently, AI-based structural impact detection methods are widely used for their excellent detection accuracy. However, their generalization capability is limited by the scenarios present in the training data. Many complex and dangerous impact scenarios are difficult to conduct real-world experiments on to collect sufficient samples. To capture all impact scenarios and fully leverage the advantages of AI-based detection technologies, advanced methods involve combining real-world structural monitoring data with corresponding numerical models to construct digital twins. These methods continuously refine the created numerical models with limited real-world data and provide diverse impact scenarios through numerical model simulations. However, there are inevitable differences between digital models and physical models that are challenging to correct through mechanical means. This discrepancy in data distribution between the two models significantly hinders the application of digital twin technology in impact/event identification tasks. To address this challenge, this study proposes a novel model based on autoencoders, named Transfer-AE. Transfer-AE encodes the common features of digital twins in the latent space to bridge the uncertainty gap at a macro scale between numerical models and physical models and synchronously fits the magnitude and location of the impact load in the decoder. This enables consistent detection results for the same impact event, whether the sample comes from the numerical model or the physical model. Transfer-AE includes two operating modes: Mode 1 has a fixed computational complexity with stable inference speed, but the training cost and difficulty increase with data distribution. Mode 2's computational complexity increases with data distribution, but it has a fixed training cost and speed. In both cases involving the geodesic dome structure simulating a deep space habitat and the IASC-ASCE benchmark structure, Transfer-AE demonstrated the best performance in impact localization and quantification tasks compared to mainstream domain-adaptive transfer models.

Chengjia Han

Comparison of the USU ionospheric model with the UCL-Sheffield coupled thermospheric-ionospheric model

Several physical models of the high-latitude ionosphere have been developed that describe the time-dependent evolution of the E- and F-region plasma density. The models require a variety of inputs, including solar EUV fluxes, magnetospheric convection, auroral precipitation, and neutral atmosphere. Of specific relevance to this study is how the neutral atmosphere is incorporated into the ionospheric models. For the USU ionospheric model, the neutral atmosphere is the MSIS 1986 empirical model, while for the UCL-Sheffield coupled thermospheric-ionospheric model the neutral atmosphere is computed simultaneously with the ionosphere. Both models were run for similar solar and magnetospheric conditions (solar maximum, moderate geomagnetic activity, and winter solstice). Solar maximum conditions ensured a strong coupling between the ionosphere and thermosphere, which provided the possibility of a large ionospheric difference between the two physical models. This was further enhanced by choosing winter conditions so that the densities were not dominated by sunlight. The comparison of the two models indicated that both models predict the same morphological features with similar ionospheric densities, generally within about 30 percent.

Sojka, J. J.

Natural Air-Sea Flux of CO2 in Simulations of the NASA-GISS Climate Model: Sensitivity to the Physical Ocean Model Formulation

Results from twin control simulations of the preindustrial CO2 gas exchange (natural flux of CO2) between the ocean and the atmosphere are presented here using the NASA-GISS climate model, in which the same atmospheric component (modelE2) is coupled to two different ocean models, the Russell ocean model and HYCOM. Both incarnations of the GISS climate model are also coupled to the same ocean biogeochemistry module (NOBM) which estimates prognostic distributions for biotic and abiotic fields that influence the air-sea flux of CO2. Model intercomparison is carried out at equilibrium conditions and model differences are contrasted with biases from present day climatologies. Although the models agree on the spatial patterns of the air-sea flux of CO2, they disagree on the strength of the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean sinks mainly because of kinematic (winds) and chemistry (pCO2) differences rather than thermodynamic (SST) ones. Biology/chemistry dissimilarities in the models stem from the different parameterizations of advective and diffusive processes, such as overturning, mixing and horizontal tracer advection and to a lesser degree from parameterizations of biogeochemical processes such as gravitational settling and sinking. The global meridional overturning circulation illustrates much of the different behavior of the biological pump in the two models, together with differences in mixed layer depth which are responsible for different SST, DIC and nutrient distributions in the two models and consequently different atmospheric feedbacks (in the wind, net heat and freshwater fluxes into the ocean).

Gas exchange

The CEOP Inter-Monsoon Studies (CIMS)

Prediction of climate relies on models, and better model prediction depends on good model physics. Improving model physics requires the maximal utilization of climate data of the past, present and future. CEOP provides the first example of a comprehensive, integrated global and regional data set, consisting of globally gridded data, reference site in-situ observations, model location time series (MOLTS), and integrated satellite data for a two-year period covering two complete annual cycles of 2003-2004. The monsoon regions are the most important socio-economically in terms of devastation by floods and droughts, and potential impacts from climate change md fluctuatinns nf the hydrologic cyc!e. Scientifically, it is most challenging, because of complex interactions of atmosphere, land and oceans, local vs. remote forcings in contributing to climate variability and change in the region. Given that many common features, and physical teleconnection exist among different monsoon regions, an international research focus on monsoon must be coordinated and sustained. Current models of the monsoon are grossly inadequate for regional predictions. For improvement, models must be confronted with relevant observations, and model physic developers must be made to be aware of the wealth of information from existing climate data, field measurements, and satellite data that can be used to improve models. Model transferability studles must be conducted. CIMS is a major initiative under CEOP to engage the modeling and the observational communities to join in a coordinated effort to study the monsoons. The objectives of CIMS are (a) To provide a better understanding of fundamental physical processes (diurnal cycle, annual cycle, and intraseasonal oscillations) in monsoon regions around the world and (b) To demonstrate the synergy and utility of CEOP data in providing a pathway for model physics evaluation and improvement. In this talk, I will present the basic concepts of CIMS and the key scientific problems facing monsoon climates and provide examples of common monsoon features, and possible monsoon induced teleconnections linking different parts of the world.

Lau, William K. M.

Computer graphics testbed to simulate and test vision systems for space applications

A system was developed for displaying computer graphics images of space objects and the use of the system was demonstrated as a testbed for evaluating vision systems for space applications. In order to evaluate vision systems, it is desirable to be able to control all factors involved in creating the images used for processing by the vision system. Considerable time and expense is involved in building accurate physical models of space objects. Also, precise location of the model relative to the viewer and accurate location of the light source require additional effort. As part of this project, graphics models of space objects such as the Solarmax satellite are created that the user can control the light direction and the relative position of the object and the viewer. The work is also aimed at providing control of hue, shading, noise and shadows for use in demonstrating and testing imaging processing techniques. The simulated camera data can provide XYZ coordinates, pitch, yaw, and roll for the models. A physical model is also being used to provide comparison of camera images with the graphics images.

Cheatham, John B.

Supersonic combustor modeling

The physical phenomena involved when a supersonic flow undergoes chemical reaction are discussed. Detailed physical models of convective and diffusive mixing, and finite rate chemical reaction in supersonic flow are presented. Numerical algorithms used to solve the equations governing these processes are introduced. Computer programs using these algorithms are used to analyze the structure of the reacting mixing layer. It is concluded that, as in subsonic flow, exothermic heat release in unconfined supersonic flows retards fuel/air mixing. Non mixing is shown to be a potential problem in reducing the efficiency of supersonic as well as subsonic combustion. Techniques for enhancing fuel/air mixing and combustion are described.

Riggins, David W.

Cabin Environment Physics Risk Model

This paper presents a Cabin Environment Physics Risk (CEPR) model that predicts the time for an initial failure of Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) functionality to propagate into a hazardous environment and trigger a loss-of-crew (LOC) event. This physics-of failure model allows a probabilistic risk assessment of a crewed spacecraft to account for the cabin environment, which can serve as a buffer to protect the crew during an abort from orbit and ultimately enable a safe return. The results of the CEPR model replace the assumption that failure of the crew critical ECLSS functionality causes LOC instantly, and provide a more accurate representation of the spacecraft's risk posture. The instant-LOC assumption is shown to be excessively conservative and, moreover, can impact the relative risk drivers identified for the spacecraft. This, in turn, could lead the design team to allocate mass for equipment to reduce overly conservative risk estimates in a suboptimal configuration, which inherently increases the overall risk to the crew. For example, available mass could be poorly used to add redundant ECLSS components that have a negligible benefit but appear to make the vehicle safer due to poor assumptions about the propagation time of ECLSS failures.

Risk

Diagnosis by integrating model-based reasoning with knowledge-based reasoning

Our research investigates how observations can be categorized by integrating a qualitative physical model with experiential knowledge. Our domain is diagnosis of pathologic gait in humans, in which the observations are the gait motions, muscle activity during gait, and physical exam data, and the diagnostic hypotheses are the potential muscle weaknesses, muscle mistimings, and joint restrictions. Patients with underlying neurological disorders typically have several malfunctions. Among the problems that need to be faced are: the ambiguity of the observations, the ambiguity of the qualitative physical model, correspondence of the observations and hypotheses to the qualitative physical model, the inherent uncertainty of experiential knowledge, and the combinatorics involved in forming composite hypotheses. Our system divides the work so that the knowledge-based reasoning suggests which hypotheses appear more likely than others, the qualitative physical model is used to determine which hypotheses explain which observations, and another process combines these functionalities to construct a composite hypothesis based on explanatory power and plausibility. We speculate that the reasoning architecture of our system is generally applicable to complex domains in which a less-than-perfect physical model and less-than-perfect experiential knowledge need to be combined to perform diagnosis.

Bylander, Tom

Aerothermal modeling program, phase 1

The physical modeling embodied in the computational fluid dynamics codes is discussed. The objectives were to identify shortcomings in the models and to provide a program plan to improve the quantitative accuracy. The physical models studied were for: turbulent mass and momentum transport, heat release, liquid fuel spray, and gaseous radiation. The approach adopted was to test the models against appropriate benchmark-quality test cases from experiments in the literature for the constituent flows that together make up the combustor real flow.

Sturgess, G. J.

Master-slave system with force feedback based on dynamics of virtual model

A master-slave system can extend manipulating and sensing capabilities of a human operator to a remote environment. But the master-slave system has two serious problems: one is the mechanically large impedance of the system; the other is the mechanical complexity of the slave for complex remote tasks. These two problems reduce the efficiency of the system. If the slave has local intelligence, it can help the human operator by using its good points like fast calculation and large memory. The authors suggest that the slave is a dextrous hand with many degrees of freedom able to manipulate an object of known shape. It is further suggested that the dimensions of the remote work space be shared by the human operator and the slave. The effect of the large impedance of the system can be reduced in a virtual model, a physical model constructed in a computer with physical parameters as if it were in the real world. A method to determine the damping parameter dynamically for the virtual model is proposed. Experimental results show that this virtual model is better than the virtual model with fixed damping.

Nojima, Shuji

Physics-Based Modeling and Simulation of Self-Reacting Friction Stir Welding Using Computational Fluid Dynamics

A physics-based model was developed to simulate the behavior of material in a self-reacting friction stir welding (SR-FSW) process for the joining of metals. This steady-state model builds upon fundamental computational fluid dynamic (CFD) principles within Ansys Fluent to solve the discretized equations. The effective viscosity is calculated using a viscoplastic model using a Sheppard-Wright formulation of flow stress. Numerous advancements have been made in the incorporated physics including (1) temperature-dependent material properties; (2) locally adaptable flow and thermal boundary conditions; and (3) adapting material properties in nugget in response to microstructural changes. Simulation strategies to accelerate computation and improve numerical stability include adapting the mesh refinement and solver relaxation factors during simulation. The result is a highly robust and computationally efficient model capable of providing the material flow and temperature history across the domain. As material history determines the local microstructure and ultimately weld strength, an accurate and detailed physics-based model has the potential to accelerate SR-FSW process development. The model is highly adaptable to changes in process parameters, tool design, or alloy.

Process Modeling

Polarimetric signatures of sea ice. 1: Theoretical model

Physical, structral, and electromagnetic properties and interrelating processes in sea ice are used to develop a composite model for polarimetric backscattering signatures of sea ice. Physical properties of sea ice constituents such as ice, brine, air, and salt are presented in terms of their effects on electromagnetic wave interactions. Sea ice structure and geometry of scatterers are related to wave propagation, attenuation, and scattering. Temperature and salinity, which are determining factors for the thermodynamic phase distribution in sea ice, are consistently used to derive both effective permittivities and polarimetric scattering coefficients. Polarmetric signatures of sea ice depend on crystal sizes and brine volumes, which are affected by ice growth rates. Desalination by brine expulsion, drainage, or other mechanisms modifies wave penetration and scattering. Sea ice signatures are further complicated by surface conditions such as rough interfaces, hummocks, snow cover, brine skim, or slush layer. Based on the same set of geophysical parameters characterizing sea ice, a composite model is developed to calculate effective permittivities and backscattering covariance matrices at microwave frequencies to interpretation of sea ice polarimetric signatures.

Nghiem, S. V.

Warm neutral halos around molecular clouds. VI - Physical and chemical modeling

A combined physical and chemical modeling of the halos around molecular clouds is presented, with special emphasis on the H-to-H2 transition. On the basis of H I 21 cm observations, it is shown that the halos are extended. A physical model is employed in conjunction with a chemistry code to provide a self-consistent description of the gas. The radiative transfer code provides a check with H I, CO, and OH observations. It is concluded that the warm neutral halos are not gravitationally bound to the underlying molecular clouds and are isobaric. It is inferred from the observed extent of the H I envelopes and the large observed abundance of OH in them that the generally accepted rate for H2 information on grains is too large by a factor of two to three.

Andersson, B.-G.