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At least 109 records · Page 6

Systems Analysis of NASA Aviation Safety Program: Final Report

A three-month study (February to April 2010) of the NASA Aviation Safety (AvSafe) program was conducted. This study comprised three components: (1) a statistical analysis of currently available civilian subsonic aircraft data from the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), and the Aviation Safety Information Analysis and Sharing (ASIAS) system to identify any significant or overlooked aviation safety issues; (2) a high-level qualitative identification of future safety risks, with an assessment of the potential impact of the NASA AvSafe research on the National Airspace System (NAS) based on these risks; and (3) a detailed, top-down analysis of the NASA AvSafe program using an established and peer-reviewed systems analysis methodology. The statistical analysis identified the top aviation "tall poles" based on NTSB accident and FAA incident data from 1997 to 2006. A separate examination of medical helicopter accidents in the United States was also conducted. Multiple external sources were used to develop a compilation of ten "tall poles" in future safety issues/risks. The top-down analysis of the AvSafe was conducted by using a modification of the Gibson methodology. Of the 17 challenging safety issues that were identified, 11 were directly addressed by the AvSafe program research portfolio.

Jones, Sharon M.↗

Reliability Modeling Methodology for Independent Approaches on Parallel Runways Safety Analysis

This document is an adjunct to the final report An Integrated Safety Analysis Methodology for Emerging Air Transport Technologies. That report presents the results of our analysis of the problem of simultaneous but independent, approaches of two aircraft on parallel runways (independent approaches on parallel runways, or IAPR). This introductory chapter presents a brief overview and perspective of approaches and methodologies for performing safety analyses for complex systems. Ensuing chapter provide the technical details that underlie the approach that we have taken in performing the safety analysis for the IAPR concept.

Babcock, P.↗

Methods for heat transfer and temperature field analysis of the insulated diesel, phase 3

Work during Phase 3 of a program aimed at developing a comprehensive heat transfer and thermal analysis methodology for design analysis of insulated diesel engines is described. The overall program addresses all the key heat transfer issues: (1) spatially and time-resolved convective and radiative in-cylinder heat transfer, (2) steady-state conduction in the overall structure, and (3) cyclical and load/speed temperature transients in the engine structure. These are all accounted for in a coupled way together with cycle thermodynamics. This methodology was developed during Phases 1 and 2. During Phase 3, an experimental program was carried out to obtain data on heat transfer under cooled and insulated engine conditions and also to generate a database to validate the developed methodology. A single cylinder Cummins diesel engine was instrumented for instantaneous total heat flux and heat radiation measurements. Data were acquired over a wide range of operating conditions in two engine configurations. One was a cooled baseline. The other included ceramic coated components (0.050 inches plasma sprayed zirconia)-piston, head and valves. The experiments showed that the insulated engine has a smaller heat flux than the cooled one. The model predictions were found to be in very good agreement with the data.

Morel, Thomas↗

Probabilistic structural analysis: Introductory remarks

The development of probabilistic structural analysis methodology consists of the following program elements: (1) composite load spectra models, (2) computational probabilistic structural analysis methods, and (3) probabilistic constitutive relationships. The development of the probabilistic structural analysis methodology is a joint program of NASA Lewis in-house and sponsored research. The objective of this session is to illustrate recent progress on the application of this methodology to determine the reliability of structural components for rocket propulsion systems. The session contains descriptions of and progress reports on the following specific activities: (1) The NESSUS computer code, (2) approximate methods, (3) advanced methods, (4) composite load spectra applications, (5) probabilistic fracture mechanisms, and (6) probability of failure and risk analysis. Collectively, the progress to date demonstrates that the structural durability of hot engine structural components can be effectively evaluated in a formal probabilistic/reliability framework.

Chamis, Christos C.↗

Advanced Single-Aisle Transport Propulsion Design Options Revisited

Future propulsion options for advanced single-aisle transports have been investigated in a number of previous studies by the authors. These studies have examined the system level characteristics of aircraft incorporating ultra-high bypass ratio (UHB) turbofans (direct drive and geared) and open rotor engines. During the course of these prior studies, a number of potential refinements and enhancements to the analysis methodology and assumptions were identified. This paper revisits a previously conducted UHB turbofan fan pressure ratio trade study using updated analysis methodology and assumptions. The changes incorporated have decreased the optimum fan pressure ratio for minimum fuel consumption and reduced the engine design trade-offs between minimizing noise and minimizing fuel consumption. Nacelle drag and engine weight are found to be key drivers in determining the optimum fan pressure ratio from a fuel efficiency perspective. The revised noise analysis results in the study aircraft being 2 to 4 EPNdB (cumulative) quieter due to a variety of reasons explained in the paper. With equal core technology assumed, the geared engine architecture is found to be as good as or better than the direct drive architecture for most parameters investigated. However, the engine ultimately selected for a future advanced single-aisle aircraft will depend on factors beyond those considered here.

Guynn, Mark D.↗

The Utility in Conjoint Analysis as a Fast Expert Elicitation Technique

This paper presents an interface and analysis technique for quickly conducting expert elicitation with the goal of determining entity importance. Our interface deploys a two-alternative choice experiment that is capable of representing knowledge graphs in an easy to interpret fashion for users with limited experience with knowledge graphs. Our analysis methodology takes advantage of conjoint analysis techniques and provides entity weights for many SMEs simultaneously. The results largely align with individual participant fits.

Conjoint Analysis, interface, Expert Elicitation, ↗

Quantifying the Impact of Systems Interdependencies in Space Systems Architectures

Due to the high number of systems in a space mission architecture and to their complex interactions, identifying risk and critical operational dependencies is not obvious. Traditional systems engineering methodology and risk assessment does not capture the impact of interactions between systems nor the cascading effects of disruptions. Based on these considerations, the Systems Operational Dependency Analysis methodology was developed for use by systems analysts and decision makers. This methodology utilizes a parametric model of interdependencies between systems to quantify the direct and indirect impact of system disruptions on other systems, as well as identify root causes. The results are effective at providing decision support for prioritizing technology investment based on risk reduction associated with potential system disruptions. Expanding on research presented at IAC 2018 and based on a collaboration with NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, this paper applies the Systems Operational Dependency Analysis methodology to NASA Lunar Gateway in collaboration with NASA’s lunar exploration plans. The paper presents a hierarchical representation of the interdependencies between a Gateway habitat’s systems and subsystems, demonstrates quantification of the impact of disruption, and assesses the criticality of the constituent systems and subsystems.

Guariniello, Cesare↗

Valuing Rigor in the Risk Management Process

NASA, as an organization, takes risk management (RM) seriously, and for most projects, the risk management process is exemplar. There can be challenges, though, with defining RM processes. For example, many different risk analysis methodologies are available, they can be applied with varying degrees of rigor, and they can have different value depending on how projects use them. In particular, risk analysis methodologies vary considerably in the level of quantitative detail, with more probabilistic techniques encouraged in some situations. We discussed these processes and methodologies with ten project managers (PM) at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). Our intent was not to prove with some level of statistical significance that some are more helpful than others, but rather to obtain a general understanding of how projects are identifying, and thinking, about risks. This paper describes some of the available risk processes and methodologies, and provides some insights about the benefits that can gained from their use. We provide an in-depth discussion of one quantitative methodology, Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs), and conclude with a few insights from observed best practices.

Dillon, Robin L.↗

Probabilistic structural analysis to evaluate the structural durability of SSME critical components

NASA Lewis Research Center is currently developing probabilistic structural analysis methods for select Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) structural components. Briefly, the deterministic, three-dimensional, inelastic analysis methodology developed under the Hot Section Technology (HOST) and R and T Base Programs is being augmented to accommodate the complex probabilistic loading spectra, the thermoviscoplastic material behavior, and the material degradation associated with the environment of space propulsion system structural components representative of the SSME such as turbine blades, transfer ducts, and liquid-oxygen posts. The development of probabilistic structural analysis methodology consists of the following program elements: (1) composite load spectra; (2) probabilistic structural analysis methods; (3) probabilistic finite element theory - new variational principles; and (4) probabilistic structural analysis application. In addition, the program includes deterministic analysis elements: (1) development of structural tailoring computer codes (SSME/STAEBL); (2) development of dynamic creep buckling/ratcheting theory; (3) evaluation of the dynamic characteristics of single-crystal SSME blades; (4) development of SSME blade damper technology; and (5) development of integrated boundary elements for hotfluid structure interaction.

Chamis, Christos C.↗

The Aeronautical Data Link: Taxonomy, Architectural Analysis, and Optimization

The future Communication, Navigation, and Surveillance/Air Traffic Management (CNS/ATM) System will rely on global satellite navigation, and ground-based and satellite based communications via Multi-Protocol Networks (e.g. combined Aeronautical Telecommunications Network (ATN)/Internet Protocol (IP)) to bring about needed improvements in efficiency and safety of operations to meet increasing levels of air traffic. This paper will discuss the development of an approach that completely describes optimal data link architecture configuration and behavior to meet the multiple conflicting objectives of concurrent and different operations functions. The practical application of the approach enables the design and assessment of configurations relative to airspace operations phases. The approach includes a formal taxonomic classification, an architectural analysis methodology, and optimization techniques. The formal taxonomic classification provides a multidimensional correlation of data link performance with data link service, information protocol, spectrum, and technology mode; and to flight operations phase and environment. The architectural analysis methodology assesses the impact of a specific architecture configuration and behavior on the local ATM system performance. Deterministic and stochastic optimization techniques maximize architectural design effectiveness while addressing operational, technology, and policy constraints.

Morris, A. Terry↗

Comparison of Damage Path Predictions for Composite Laminates by Explicit and Standard Finite Element Analysis Tools

Splitting, ultimate failure load and the damage path in center notched composite specimens subjected to in-plane tension loading are predicted using progressive failure analysis methodology. A 2-D Hashin-Rotem failure criterion is used in determining intra-laminar fiber and matrix failures. This progressive failure methodology has been implemented in the Abaqus/Explicit and Abaqus/Standard finite element codes through user written subroutines "VUMAT" and "USDFLD" respectively. A 2-D finite element model is used for predicting the intra-laminar damages. Analysis results obtained from the Abaqus/Explicit and Abaqus/Standard code show good agreement with experimental results. The importance of modeling delamination in progressive failure analysis methodology is recognized for future studies. The use of an explicit integration dynamics code for simple specimen geometry and static loading establishes a foundation for future analyses where complex loading and nonlinear dynamic interactions of damage and structure will necessitate it.

Bogert, Philip B.↗

System Analysis Applied to Autonomy: Application to High-Altitude Long-Endurance Remotely Operated Aircraft

Maturation of intelligent systems technologies and their incorporation into aerial platforms are dictating the development of new analysis tools and incorporation of such tools into existing system analysis methodologies in order to fully capture the trade-offs of autonomy on vehicle and mission success. A first-order "system analysis of autonomy" methodology is outlined in this paper. Further, this analysis methodology is subsequently applied to notional high-altitude long-endurance (HALE) aerial vehicle missions.

Young, Larry A.↗

NASP aeroservothermoelasticity studies

Some illustrative results obtained from work accomplished under the aerothermoelasticity work breakdown structure (WBS) element of the National Aerospace Plane (NASP) Technology Maturation Program (TMP) are presented and discussed. The objectives of the aerothermoelasticity element were to develop analytical methods applicable to aerospace plane type configurations, to conduct analytical studies to identify potential problems, to evaluate potential solutions to problems, and to provide an experimental data base to verify codes and analytical trends. Work accomplished in the three areas of experimental data base, unsteady aerodynamics, and integrated analysis methodology are described. Some of the specific topics discussed are: (1) transonic wind tunnel aeroelastic model tests of cantilever delta wing models, of an all-moveable delta-wing model, and of aileron buzz models; (2) unsteady aerodynamic theory correlation with experiment and theory improvements; and (3) integrated analysis methodology results for thermal effects on vibration, for thermal effects on flutter, and for improving aeroelastic performance by using active controls.

Doggett, Robert V., Jr.↗

Joint analysis of Dark Energy Survey Year 3 data and CMB lensing from SPT and Planck . I. Construction of CMB lensing maps and modeling choices

Joint analyses of cross-correlations between measurements of galaxy positions, galaxy lensing, and lensing of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) offer powerful constraints on the large-scale structure of the Universe. In a forthcoming analysis, we will present cosmological constraints from the analysis of such cross-correlations measured using Year 3 data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES), and CMB data from the South Pole Telescope (SPT) and Planck. Here we present two key ingredients of this analysis: (1) an improved CMB lensing map in the SPT-SZ survey footprint and (2) the analysis methodology that will be used to extract cosmological information from the cross-correlation measurements. Relative to previous lensing maps made from the same CMB observations, we have implemented techniques to remove contamination from the thermal Sunyaev Zel’dovich effect, enabling the extraction of cosmological information from smaller angular scales of the cross-correlation measurements than in previous analyses with DES Year 1 data. We describe our model for the cross-correlations between these maps and DES data, and validate our modeling choices to demonstrate the robustness of our analysis. We then forecast the expected cosmological constraints from the galaxy survey-CMB lensing auto and cross-correlations. We find that the galaxy-CMB lensing and galaxy shear-CMB lensing correlations will on their own provide a constraint on S 8 =σ 8 $\sqrt{Ωm/0.3}$ at the few percent level, providing a powerful consistency check for the DES-only constraints. Finally, we explore scenarios where external priors on shear calibration are removed, finding that the joint analysis of CMB lensing cross-correlations can provide constraints on the shear calibration amplitude at the 5% to 10% level.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Environmental exposure effects on composite materials for commercial aircraft

Activities reported include completion of the program design tasks, resolution of a high fiber volume problem and resumption of specimen fabrication, fixture fabrication, and progress on the analysis methodology and definition of the typical aircraft environment. Program design activities including test specimens, specimen holding fixtures, flap-track fairing tailcones, and ground exposure racks were completed. The problem experienced in obtaining acceptable fiber volume fraction results on two of the selected graphite epoxy material systems was resolved with an alteration to the bagging procedure called out in BAC 5562. The revised bagging procedure, involving lower numbers of bleeder plies, produces acceptable results. All required laminates for the contract have now been laid up and cured. Progress in the area of analysis methodology has been centered about definition of the environment that a commercial transport aircraft undergoes. The selected methodology is analagous to fatigue life assessment.

Hoffman, D. J.↗

Emerging Energy Market Analysis Initiative, Methodological Framework

Planning and operations of the electric power sector are undergoing radical changes. Climate change mitigation efforts have forced rapid changes to the technology mix. Technologies like wind and solar have experienced rapid growth, while investment in fossil sources has peaked or is declining. These foundational changes are forcing changes to energy systems. Demand-side adoption of electrified technologies, including electric vehicles, is changing load profiles and opening up new avenues for consumer participation in the power systems. The implications of an evolving power system pertain to more than environmental and technical dimensions. Changes to the generation mix and its consequent upstream and downstream impacts such as fuel production have significant and highly concentrated consequences on economies and employment. Shifts towards distributed (or decentralized) generating assets offer the potential to reshape economic and employment opportunities associated with the energy sector across space and socioeconomic groups. The Emerging Energy Market Analysis (EMA) initiative aims to identify sustainable, regionally acceptable, and high-value energy solutions that are secure and equitable. Unlike short-term, least-cost choices that can narrowly account for traditional options, EMA’s focus on emerging energy markets recognizes that new or adapted practices and technologies can alter the frontier of solutions and advance a community’s social, economic, and natural pathways. Such change requires a more comprehensive analysis of societal input, resources, capabilities, and infrastructure. These considerations lay the foundation for community decision-making models that are responsive to community values as well as the history and drivers. The result is a community-based decision and engagement model that will be valuable to decisionmakers and developers of advanced and emerging energy solutions, seeking a social license to operate prior to project development.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Along-Orbit Analysis of GRACE Follow-On Inter-Satellite Laser Ranging Measurements for Sub-Monthly Surface Mass Variations

We examined the sensitivity of GRACE Follow-On (GRACE-FO) laser ranging interferometer (LRI) measurements to sub-monthly time-variable gravity (TVG) signals caused by transient, high-frequency mass changes in the Earth system. GRACE-FO LRI provides complementary inter-satellite ranging measurements with higher precision over a wider range of frequencies than the baseline K-band microwave ranging system. The common approach for studying mass variation relies on the inverted TVG or mascon solutions over a period of, for example, one month or 10 days which are adversely affected by temporal aliasing and/or smoothing. In this article, we present the alternative along-orbit analysis methodology in terms of line-of-sight gravity difference (LGD) to fully exploit the higher precision LRI measurements for examination of sub-monthly mass changes. The discrepancy between “instantaneous” LGD LRI observations and monthly mean LGD (from Level-2 data) at satellite altitude indicates the sub-monthly gravitational variability not captured by monthly-mean solutions. In conjunction with the satellite ocean altimetry observations, high frequency non-tidal atmosphere and ocean models, and hydrology models, we show that the LGD LRI observations detect the high-frequency oceanic mass variability in the Argentine Basin and the Gulf of Carpentaria, and sub-monthly variations in surface (river) water in the Amazon Basin. We demonstrate the benefits gained from repeat ground track analysis of GRACE-FO LRI data in the case of the Amazon surface water flow. The along-orbit analysis methodology based on LGD LRI time series presented here is especially suitable for quantifying temporal and spatial evolution of extreme, rapidly changing mass variations.

Khosro Ghobadi-Far↗

Crack Growth Simulation and Residual Strength Prediction in Airplane Fuselages

This is the final report for the NASA funded project entitled "Crack Growth Prediction Methodology for Multi-Site Damage." The primary objective of the project was to create a capability to simulate curvilinear fatigue crack growth and ductile tearing in aircraft fuselages subjected to widespread fatigue damage. The second objective was to validate the capability by way of comparisons to experimental results. Both objectives have been achieved and the results are detailed herein. In the first part of the report, the crack tip opening angle (CTOA) fracture criterion, obtained and correlated from coupon tests to predict fracture behavior and residual strength of built-up aircraft fuselages, is discussed. Geometrically nonlinear, elastic-plastic, thin shell finite element analyses are used to simulate stable crack growth and to predict residual strength. Both measured and predicted results of laboratory flat panel tests and full-scale fuselage panel tests show substantial reduction of residual strength due to the occurrence of multi-site damage (MSD). Detailed comparisons of n stable crack growth history, and residual strength between the predicted and experimental results are used to assess the validity of the analysis methodology. In the second part of the report, issues related to crack trajectory prediction in thin shells; an evolving methodology uses the crack turning phenomenon to improve the structural integrity of aircraft structures are discussed, A directional criterion is developed based on the maximum tangential stress theory, but taking into account the effect of T-stress and fracture toughness orthotropy. Possible extensions of the current crack growth directional criterion to handle geometrically and materially nonlinear problems are discussed. The path independent contour integral method for T-stress evaluation is derived and its accuracy is assessed using a p- and hp-version adaptive finite element method. Curvilinear crack growth is simulated in coupon tests and in full-scale fuselage panel tests. Both T-stress and fracture toughness orthotropy are found to be essential to predict the observed crack paths. The analysis methodology and software program (FRANC3D/STAGS) developed herein allows engineers to maintain aging aircraft economically while insuring continuous airworthiness. Consequently, it will improve the technology to support the safe operation of the current aircraft fleet as well as the design of more damage-tolerant aircraft for the next generation fleet.

Chen, Chuin-Shan↗