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DOE OSTI2025

Extended dark energy analysis using DESI DR2 BAO measurements

We conduct an extended analysis of dark energy constraints, in support of the findings of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) second data release cosmology key paper, including DESI data, Planck cosmic microwave background observations, and three different supernova compilations. Using a broad range of parametric and nonparametric methods, we explore the dark energy phenomenology and find consistent trends across all approaches, in good agreement with the 𝑤 0⁢ 𝑤 𝑎⁢ CDM (cold dark matter) key paper results. Even with the additional flexibility introduced by nonparametric approaches, such as binning and Gaussian processes, we find that extending Λ⁢ CDM to include a two-parameter 𝑤⁡(𝑧) is sufficient to capture the trends present in the data. Finally, we examine three dark energy classes with distinct dynamics, including quintessence scenarios satisfying 𝑤 ≥ −1, to explore what underlying physics can explain such deviations. The current data indicate a clear preference for models that feature a phantom crossing; although alternatives lacking this feature are disfavored, they cannot yet be ruled out. Our analysis confirms that the evidence for dynamical dark energy, particularly at low redshift (𝑧 ≲ 0.3), is robust and stable under different modeling choices.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Transit Rider/Travel Behavior Inventory Survey - Minneapolis-St. Paul Metro - 2005

The survey was an on-board survey of transit riders on all regular route services for bus and light-rail in the Minneapolis-Saint Paul metropolitan area. The primary purpose of the study was to gather the data needed to update the mode choice models that are an integral component of the regional travel forecast model maintained by the Metropolitan Council, the metropolitan planning organization for the Minneapolis-Saint Paul metropolitan area. The survey instrument focused on identifying characteristics of the trip taken by each transit rider, including origin, destination, trip purpose, and mode of access. The survey also collected relevant socioeconomic and demographic information.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2020

Verification and Validation of High Explosive Reactive Burn Models Implemented in LANL's EAP and LAP Code Base

Reactive burn models represent a significant leap in high explosive (HE) modeling capability. The first generation of engineering models of HE detonation are called programmed burn models and they are largely based on the distance between a prescribed detonation point and each zone in a simulation. There have been many advancements to programmed burn models over the years and when the assumptions upon which they are based are met, a properly tuned programmed burn model can be highly accurate but if any of their assumptions is not met, as is the case for corner turning or weakly initiated HE burn, they will give the wrong answer. Reactive burn models represent an entirely new way of modeling HE burn. They use the local conditions of a zone – e.g. temperature, pressure or density – as calculated by a hydrocode to determine if and when the zone is going to detonate and if so, how rapidly. This difference opens up an entirely new set of capabilities for HE modeling. It makes it possible to accurately and predictively model phenomena like the effect of confinement and the formation of dead zones. Reactive burn models have seen sustained development effort at LANL for at least the last decade but several recent developments make it timely to transition reactive burn models from a research topic to a production tool. The main goal of this milestone is to facilitate and accelerate the adoption of reactive burn as a commonly available modeling option, with recommendations on the resolution that will be required and uncertainties associated with their modeling choices. To achieve this, we have performed verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification (UQ) assessments of AWSD and SURF/SURFplus in xRage and FLAG on a variety of different problems.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2025

Design, Prototyping, Fabrication and Test of the Mu2e AC-Dipole Magnet

Fermilab Magnet Systems is building three High-frequency AC-Dipole Magnets for the Mu2e experiment at Fermilab. These magnets are composed of three single-loop one-meter-long ferrite loaded segments. The excitation consists of a copper tube, which is also used as a means for its cooling with the inherited challenges of Voltage and Frequency uncoupling. These magnets are designed to operate either at 300 kHz or 4.4 MHz via resonance tuning. Following the completion of the design, prototyping, and analysis phases, all ferrites and other components were procured, and the magnets were fabricated to meet vacuum compatibility requirements using strict procedures. Each magnet undergoes thorough baking and testing before being installed in the experiment. This paper discusses the magnets' role in proton background suppression as it represents a unique and essential device for the Mu2e experiment at Fermilab. We present the magnet design choices, modeling approach, and the challenges encountered during fabrication. Additionally, we outline the power supply driving mechanism, the testing that was performed, and our results.

Elementi, Luciano [Fermilab] (ORCID:00000002766372↗

DOE OSTI2025

Polaris-PARCS Sensitivity Study on LWR Fuel Cycles: Polaris Input Options

This study is the first of a multi-phase effort to assess the sensitivity of light-water reactor (LWR) core-level prediction biases to changes in lattice-level calculation parameters. Prediction bias is the measured-to-predicted difference in a core-level quantity of interest (QOI) which can be estimated by comparing the simulation results with the plant-measured data for key nuclear parameters. The LWR two-step neutronics codes employed herein are the SCALE–Polaris lattice physics code (v6.3.1) and the Purdue Advanced Reactor Core Simulator (PARCS) nodal diffusion simulator (v3.4.2), both funded and used for confirmatory analysis to support licensing by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Polaris–PARCS is used to model Watts Bar Unit 1 cycles 1–3 and Peach Bottom Unit 2 cycles 1–3. This study focuses on the impact of changes to Polaris input options such as scattering treatment or quadrature settings and how these input options induce changes in core-level quantities of interest (QOIs)bias. The report documents multiple bias assessments for different modeling choices and compares the bias magnitude to the QOI measurement uncertainties. Future companion reports will investigate the sensitivity of core-level LWR prediction bias to Polaris input options and Polaris-computed QOIs such as few-group assembly-homogenized cross sections to gain an understanding of the key drivers of prediction bias at lattice and core levels for application of a two-step LWR neutronics procedure in a licensing scenario.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Modeling freight mode choice using machine learning classifiers: a comparative study using Commodity Flow Survey (CFS) data

This study explores the usefulness of machine learning classifiers for modeling freight mode choice. We investigate eight commonly used machine learning classifiers, namely Naïve Bayes, Support Vector Machine, Artificial Neural Network, K-Nearest Neighbors, Classification and Regression Tree, Random Forest, Boosting and Bagging, along with the classical Multinomial Logit model. US 2012 Commodity Flow Survey data are used as the primary data source; we augment it with spatial attributes from secondary data sources. The performance of the classifiers is compared based on prediction accuracy results. The current research also examines the role of sample size and training-testing data split ratios on the predictive ability of the various approaches. In addition, the importance of variables is estimated to determine how the variables influence freight mode choice. The results show that the tree-based ensemble classifiers perform the best. Specifically, Random Forest produces the most accurate predictions, closely followed by Boosting and Bagging. With regard to variable importance, shipment characteristics, such as shipment distance, industry classification of the shipper and shipment size, are the most significant factors for freight mode choice decisions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

TDCOSMO VIII. A key test of systematics in the hierarchical method of time-delay cosmography

The largest source of systematic errors in the time-delay cosmography method likely arises from the lens model mass distribution, where an inaccurate choice of model could in principle bias the value of $H$ 0 . A Bayesian hierarchical framework has been proposed which combines lens systems with kinematic data, constraining the mass profile shape at a population level. The framework has been previously validated using a small sample of lensing galaxies drawn from hydro-simulations. The goal of this work is to expand the validation to a more general set of lenses consistent with observed systems, as well as confirm the capacity of the method to combine two lens populations: one which has time delay information and one which lacks time delays and has systematically different image radii. For this purpose, we generated samples of analytic lens mass distributions made of baryons+dark matter and fit the subsequent mock images with standard power-law models. Corresponding kinematics data were also emulated. The hierarchical framework applied to an ensemble of time-delay lenses allowed us to correct the $H$ 0 bias associated with model choice to find $H$ 0 within 1.5σ of the fiducial value. We then combined this set with a sample of corresponding lens systems which have no time delays and have a source at lower $z$, resulting in a systematically smaller image radius relative to their effective radius. The hierarchical framework has successfully accounted for this effect, recovering a value of $H$ 0 which is both more precise (σ ~ 2%) and more accurate (0.7% median offset) than the time-delay set alone. This result confirms that non-time-delay lenses can nonetheless contribute valuable constraining power to the determination of $H$ 0 via their kinematic constraints, assuming they come from the same global population as the time-delay set.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Simulated wind farm wake sensitivity to configuration choices in the Weather Research and Forecasting model version 3.8.1

Wakes from wind farms can extend over 50 km downwind in stably stratified conditions. These wakes can undermine power production at downwind turbines, adversely impacting revenue. As such, wind farm wake impacts must be considered in wind resource assessments, especially in regions of dense wind farm development. The open-source Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical weather prediction model includes a wind farm parameterization to estimate wind farm wake effects, but model configuration choices can influence the resulting predictions of wind farm wakes. These choices include vertical resolution, horizontal resolution, and whether or not to include the addition of turbulent kinetic energy generated by the rotating wind turbines. Despite the sensitivity to model configuration, no clear guidance currently exists for these options. Here we compare simulated wind farm wakes produced by varying model configurations with meteorological observations near a land-based wind farm in flat terrain over several diurnal cycles. A WRF configuration comprised of horizontal resolutions of 3 km or 1 km paired with a vertical resolution of 10 m provides the most accurate representation of wind farm wake effects, such as the correct surface warming and elevated wind speed deficit. The inclusion of turbine-generated turbulence is also critical to produce accurate surface warming and should not be omitted.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Transport coefficient sensitivities in a semi-analytic model for magnetized liner inertial fusion

Performance of magnetized liner inertial fusion (MagLIF) experiments is highly dependent on transport processes including magnetized heat flows and magnetic flux losses. Magnetohydrodynamic simulations used to model these experiments require a choice of model for the transport coefficients, which are the constants of proportionality relating driving terms, such as temperature gradients and currents, to the associated heat and magnetic field transport. The coefficients have been the subject of repeated recalculation using various methods throughout the years. Using a semi-analytic MagLIF model, we compare models for the transport coefficients. The choice of model modifies magnetic-flux losses caused by the Nernst thermoelectric effect and thermal conduction losses. We present simulated results from parameter scans conducted in order to compare the effects of the different models on parameters of interest in MagLIF. In some regions of parameter space, discrepancies of up to 38% are found in integrated quantities like the fusion yield. These results may serve as a guide for experimental validation of the various models, particularly as laser preheat energies and initial axial field strengths are increased on MagLIF experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Assessing Clouds Using Satellite Observations Through Three Generations of Global Atmosphere Models

Abstract Clouds are parameterized in climate models using quantities on the model grid‐scale to approximate the cloud cover and impact on radiation. Because of the complexity of processes involved with clouds, these parameterizations are one of the key challenges in climate modeling. Differences in parameterizations of clouds are among the main contributors to the spread in climate sensitivity across models. In this work, the clouds in three generations of an atmosphere model lineage are evaluated against satellite observations. Satellite simulators are used within the model to provide an appropriate comparison with individual satellite products. In some respects, especially the top‐of‐atmosphere cloud radiative effect, the models show generational improvements. The most recent generation, represented by two distinct branches of development, exhibits some regional regressions in the cloud representation; in particular the southern ocean shows a positive bias in cloud cover. The two branches of model development show how choices during model development, both structural and parametric, lead to different cloud climatologies. Several evaluation strategies are used to quantify the spatial errors in terms of the large‐scale circulation and the cloud structure. The Earth mover's distance is proposed as a useful error metric for the passive satellite data products that provide cloud‐top pressure‐optical depth histograms. The cloud errors identified here may contribute to the high climate sensitivity in the Community Earth System Model, version 2 and in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, version 1.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Synthetic residential load models for smart city energy management simulations

The ability to control tens of thousands of residential electricity customers in a coordinated manner has the potential to enact system-wide electric load changes, such as reduce congestion and peak demand, among other benefits. To quantify the potential benefits of demand-side management and other power system simulation studies (e.g. home energy management, large-scale residential demand response), synthetic load datasets that accurately characterize the system load are required. This study designs a combined top-down and bottom-up approach for modelling individual residential customers and their individual electric assets, each possessing their own characteristics, using time-varying queueing models. The aggregation of all customer loads created by the queueing models represents a known city-sized load curve to be used in simulation studies. The three presented residential queueing load models use only publicly available data. An open-source Python tool to allow researchers to generate residential load data for their studies is also provided. The simulation results presented consider the ComEd region (utility company from Chicago, IL) and demonstrate the characteristics of the three proposed residential queueing load models, the impact of the choice of model parameters, and scalability performance of the Python tool.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Accelerating phase field simulations through a hybrid adaptive Fourier neural operator with U-net backbone

Prolonged contact between a corrosive liquid and metal alloys can cause progressive dealloying. For one such process as liquid-metal dealloying (LMD), phase field models have been developed to understand the mechanisms leading to complex morphologies. However, the LMD governing equations in these models often involve coupled non-linear partial differential equations (PDE), which are challenging to solve numerically. In particular, numerical stiffness in the PDEs requires an extremely refined time step size (on the order of 10 -12 s or smaller). This computational bottleneck is especially problematic when running LMD simulation until a late time horizon is required. This motivates the development of surrogate models capable of leaping forward in time, by skipping several consecutive time steps at-once. In this paper, we propose a U-shaped adaptive Fourier neural operator (U-AFNO), a machine learning (ML) based model inspired by recent advances in neural operator learning. U-AFNO employs U-Nets for extracting and reconstructing local features within the physical fields, and passes the latent space through a vision transformer (ViT) implemented in the Fourier space (AFNO). We use U-AFNOs to learn the dynamics of mapping the field at a current time step into a later time step. We also identify global quantities of interest (QoI) describing the corrosion process (e.g., the deformation of the liquid-metal interface, lost metal, etc.) and show that our proposed U-AFNO model is able to accurately predict the field dynamics, in spite of the chaotic nature of LMD. Most notably, our model reproduces the key microstructure statistics and QoIs with a level of accuracy on par with the high-fidelity numerical solver, while achieving a significant 11, 200 × speed-up on a high-resolution grid when comparing the computational expense per time step. Finally, we also investigate the opportunity of using hybrid simulations, in which we alternate forward leaps in time using the U-AFNO with high-fidelity time stepping. We demonstrate that while advantageous for some surrogate model design choices, our proposed U-AFNO model in fully auto-regressive settings consistently outperforms hybrid schemes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Langmuir probe system in the Wendelstein 7-X test divertor

Here, the design and evaluation of the Langmuir probe system used in the first divertor operation phase of Wendelstein 7-X is described. The probes are integrated into the target plates and have individually facetted surfaces to keep the angle of incidence of the magnetic field within an appropriate range for different magnetic configurations. Multiple models for the derivation of plasma parameters from current–voltage characteristics are introduced. These are analyzed with regard to their assumptions and limitations, generalized, and adapted to our use case. A detailed comparison is made to determine the most suitable model. It is found that the choice of model has a large impact, for example, resulting in a change in the inferred temperatures of up to a factor two. This evaluation is implemented in a Bayesian modeling framework and automated to allow for joint analysis with other diagnostics and a replacement of ad hoc assumptions. We rigorously treat parameter uncertainties, revealing strong correlations between them. General and flexible model formulations permit an expansion to additional effects.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Baryon acoustic oscillation theory and modelling systematics for the DESI 2024 results

This paper provides a comprehensive overview of how fitting of baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) is carried out within the upcoming Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument’s (DESI) 2024 results using its DR1 data set, and the associated systematic error budget from theory and modelling of the BAO. We derive new results showing how non-linearities in the clustering of galaxies can cause potential biases in measurements of the isotropic (⁠α iso ⁠) and anisotropic (⁠α ap ) BAO distance scales, and how these can be effectively removed with an appropriate choice of reconstruction algorithm. We then demonstrate how theory leads to a clear choice for how to model the BAO and develop, implement, and validate a new model for the remaining smooth-broad-band (i.e. without BAO) component of the galaxy clustering. Finally, we explore the impact of all remaining modelling choices on the BAO constraints from DESI using a suite of high-precision simulations, arriving at a set of best practices for DESI BAO fits, and an associated theory and modelling systematic error. Overall, our results demonstrate the remarkable robustness of the BAO to all our modelling choices and motivate a combined theory and modelling systematic error contribution to the post-reconstruction DESI BAO measurements of no more than 0.1 per cent (0.2 per cent) for its isotropic (anisotropic) distance measurements. We expect the theory and best practices laid out to here to be applicable to other BAO experiments in the era of DESI and beyond.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Criticality Accident Alarm System Modeling for the Uranium Processing Facility

The Criticality Accident Alarm System (CAAS) for the Uranium Processing Facility (UPF) provides coverage for two primary processing facilities. For UPF, detailed documentation and drawings of the design are readily available. While this design information allows for some CAAS modeling features to match the actual design with a high level of accuracy, assumptions and simplifications are necessary as it is unrealistic and unnecessary to replicate many aspects of the design. A set of modeling guidelines and techniques were used to develop consistency between the MCNP6 models. While ensuring conservatism, overly conservative choices must be avoided to demonstrate the minimum accident of concern can be detected. To ensure proper modeling choices were made for the final models, a group of parametric studies were performed to evaluate the impact on the dose rates detected at the individual detectors. Some of these modeling choices and/or associated parametric studies include: - Modeling the grid steel area above the detectors as homogeneous stainless steel and determining the impact on detectability with an increasing density. - Modeling the presence of equipment in close proximity to the CAAS detectors. - Determining an appropriate material density to represent miscellaneous items not specifically modeled. - Evaluating the impact of sprinkler activation. The results of UPF CAAS analyses show that the modeling assumptions made based on the detailed design and parametric studies are appropriate and demonstrate accurate yet conservative models have been developed for detecting minimum accident of concern within the UPF.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Unraveling the 2021 Central Tennessee flood event using a hierarchical multi-model inundation modeling framework

Flood prediction systems need hierarchical atmospheric, hydrologic, and hydraulic models to predict rainfall, runoff, streamflow, and floodplain inundation. The accuracy of such systems depends on the error propagation through the modeling chain, sensitivity to input data, and choice of models. In this study, we used multiple precipitation forcings (hindcast and forecast) to drive hydrologic and hydrodynamic models to analyze the impacts of various drivers on the estimates of flood inundation depth and extent. We implement this framework to unravel the August 2021 extreme flooding event that occurred in Central Tennessee, USA. We used two radar-based quantitative precipitation estimates (STAGE4 and MRMS) as well as quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) from the National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center (WPC) to drive a series of models in the hierarchical framework, including the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface model, the Routing Application for Parallel Computation of Discharge (RAPID) river routing model, and the AutoRoute and TRITON inundation models. An evaluation with observed high-water marks demonstrates that the framework can reasonably simulate flood inundation. Despite the complex error propagation mechanism of the modeling chain, we show that inundation estimates are most sensitive to rainfall estimates. Most notably, QPF significantly underestimates flood magnitudes and inundations leading to unanticipated severe flooding for all stakeholders involved in the event. Finally, we discuss the implications of the hydrodynamic modeling framework for real-time flood forecasting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Power System Frequency Dynamics Modeling, State Estimation, and Control using Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (NODEs) and Soft Actor-Critic (SAC) Machine Learning Approaches

With the global energy transition of the electric power system, grid control, supervision, and protection is becoming more challenging. With the increasing integration of renewable energy sources (RES), the system dynamics are changing, causing traditional power system dynamic modeling with swing equation-based modeling approaches to fail. Additionally, the converter-dominated power grid is decreasing the system inertia, making the power system more fragile to the frequency swings. This paper first investigates and compares the application of a model-based Kalman filter state estimation approach with (i) a model-free machine learning approach --- neural ordinary differential equations (NODEs) --- and (ii) a data-driven system identification (SysId) approach to model and infer critical state values of the power system frequency dynamics. Then a model predictive control (MPC) framework is compared to a model-free Soft Actor-Critic (SAC) reinforcement learning (RL) control algorithm in providing efficient fast frequency response (FFR) to the power system frequency dynamics. The approaches are compared in terms of their performance goals as well as their per-timestep computational efficiency. Furthermore, the comparative study for state estimation shows that for the model-free requirement, both NODEs and SysId can provide accurate state estimates; however, with increasing model complexity, NODEs can be a better choice for model identification. Similarly, the results from the FFR comparative study show that the SAC RL-based FFR, once trained, outperforms MPC with better control signals and faster computation time, making the SAC RL-based FFR better option for providing FFR to the power system.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Choices in land representation materially affect modeled biofuel carbon intensity estimates

Estimates of biofuel carbon intensity are uncertain and depend on modeled land use change (LUC) emissions. While analysts have focused on economic and agronomic assumptions affecting the quantity of land converted, researchers have paid less attention to how models classify land into broad categories and designate some categories as ineligible for LUC. To explore the effect of these land representation attributes, we use three versions of a global human and Earth systems model, GCAM, and compute the “carbon intensity of land-use change” (CI-LUC) from increased U.S. corn ethanol production. We consider uncertainty in model parameters along with the choice of land representation and find the latter is one of the most influential parameters on estimated CI-LUC. A version of the model that protects 90% of non-commercial land reduced estimated CI-LUC by an average of 32% across Monte Carlo trials compared to our baseline model. Another version that mimics the GTAP-BIO-ADV land representation, which protects all non-commercial land, reduced CI-LUC by an average of 19%. The results of this experiment suggest that analyses of LUC that exclude non-commercial land categories or assume more land is protected than empirically justified underestimate biofuel induced LUC GHG emissions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗