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Bridge Seismic Screening Tool (BSST), Version 2.0

The Regional Resiliency Assessment Program (RRAP) is a cooperative assessment of specific critical infrastructure within a designated geographic area and a regional analysis of the surrounding infrastructure that addresses a range of infrastructure resilience issues that could have regionally and nationally significant consequences. In 2018, DHS’s Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) sponsored the Oregon Transportation Systems RRAP project in coordination with the Office of the Governor (under the oversight of the state resilience officer), the Oregon Office of Emergency Management (OEM), the Oregon Department of Transportation (ODOT), and other regional stakeholders (CISA 2021). This project focuses on assessing the impacts of a Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) earthquake on state transportation systems and, in particular, how those impacts may affect the ability of emergency response efforts to move supplies into the region. The intended outcome of this analysis is the prioritization of transportation routes and modes for additional planning, investment, hardening, or other activities to enhance their resilience—and therefore, to enhance their ability to support response and recovery efforts following a CSZ earthquake. An important part of this transportation system-level assessment has been to assess the seismic vulnerability of the state highway system. In doing so, the RRAP project team used the Bridge Seismic Screening Tool (BSST) to assess, at a system-level, the potential impacts that a CSZ earthquake could have on state highway bridges (Bergerson et al. 2019).1 Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne), in collaboration with the Washington State Department of Transportation (WSDOT), originally developed the BSST as part of the 2017 Washington State Transportation Systems RRAP project, a sister project to the 2018 Oregon Transportation Systems RRAP project. Argonne updated the BSST during this more recent project in Oregon based on feedback from stakeholders and subject matter experts (SMEs) on the original version of the tool. The first step in the BSST is to assess the seismic vulnerability of roadway bridges following a CSZ earthquake to determine a projected or potential damage state. Damage states then help determine approximate reopening times for bridge crossings.2 This document provides details on the BSST methodology, the implementation of that tool to analyze the projected damage incurred in a CSZ earthquake scenario, and the determination of corresponding reopening times of interstate, state highway, and local bridges following such an event.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

2021 Consequence Management Hotline Drill After Action Report

In March 2021, a functional area drill was held at the Remote Sensing Laboratory–Nellis that focused on using CBRNResponder and the Digital Field Monitoring (DFM) tablets for sample hotline operations and the new paper Sample Control Forms (SCFs) for sample collection. Participants included staff trained and billeted as sample control specialists and Consequence Management Response Team (CMRT) field monitoring personnel. Teams were able to successfully gather and transfer samples to the sample control hotline staff through the manual process, though there were several noted areas for improvement. In July and October 2021, two additional functional area drills were held at Sandia National Laboratories that focused on field sample collection and custody transfer at the sample control hotline for the Consequence Management (CM) Radiological Assistance Program (RAP) program. The overarching goal of the drills was to evaluate the current CM process for sample collection, sample drop off, and sample control using the CBRNResponder mobile and web-based applications. The July 2021 drill had an additional focus to have a subset of samples analyzed by the local analytical laboratory, Radiation Protection Sample Diagnostics (RPSD) laboratory, to evaluate the Laboratory Access portal on CBRNResponder. All three drills were able to accomplish their objectives however, there were several issues noted (Observations: 25 Urgent, 29 Important, and 22 Improvement Opportunities). The observations were prioritized according to their impact on the mission as well as categorized to align with the programmatic functional area required to address the issue. This report provides additional detail on each observation for skillset/program leads and software developers to consider for future improvement or mandatory efforts.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Nitrous Oxides Ozone Destructiveness Under Different Climate Scenarios

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is an important greenhouse gas and ozone depleting substance as well as a key component of the nitrogen cascade. While emissions scenarios indicating the range of N2O's potential future contributions to radiative forcing are widely available, the impact of these emissions scenarios on future stratospheric ozone depletion is less clear. This is because N2O's ozone destructiveness is partially dependent on tropospheric warming, which affects ozone depletion rates in the stratosphere. Consequently, in order to understand the possible range of stratospheric ozone depletion that N2O could cause over the 21st century, it is important to decouple the greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and compare different emissions trajectories for individual substances (e.g. business-as-usual carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions versus low emissions of N2O). This study is the first to follow such an approach, running a series of experiments using the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences ModelE2 atmospheric sub-model. We anticipate our results to show that stratospheric ozone depletion will be highest in a scenario where CO2 emissions reductions are prioritized over N2O reductions, as this would constrain ozone recovery while doing little to limit stratospheric NOx levels (the breakdown product of N2O that destroys stratospheric ozone). This could not only delay the recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer, but might also prevent a return to pre-1980 global average ozone concentrations, a key goal of the international ozone regime. Accordingly, we think this will highlight the importance of reducing emissions of all major greenhouse gas emissions, including N2O, and not just a singular policy focus on CO2.

stratospheric ozone depletion↗

The Pluto fast flyby mission: Completing the reconnaissance of the solar system

The concept of a fast flyby mission to Pluto has been advanced as a means to complete the reconnaissance of the known solar system. In order to acquire data on the Pluto system at the earliest possible time, and within the professional lifetime of investigators now active in the field, concepts are being developed for relatively small spacecraft in the mass range of 70 Kg to 350 Kg with flight times to Pluto of 7 to 13 years. Necessarily, the science complement on such a mission will be very mass and power limited. The challenge will be to define a spacecraft and an instrument package that will maximize the scientific return within these limitations. Cost, of course, will be a major consideration, and funds for new technology development specific to this mission will not be extensive. Consequently, innovative ways to incorporate elegant simplicity into the designs must be found. In order to facilitate exploration of the Pluto-Charon system, fully integrated science payloads must be developed. Two proposed mission designs involving limited mass and power science payloads have been presented to the Outer Planets Science Working Group (OPSWG). These payload mass allocations range from 5 to 30 kilograms with power allocations as low as 5 watts. The drivers behind these low mass and power allocations are that they enable developing missions to fit within the moderate mission cost profile and allow fast flight times to Pluto (7 to 13 years). The OPSWG has prioritized science goals for this class of reconnaissance mission. Three specific science objectives were identified as the highest priority required for the first Pluto mission. These goals were: (1) study of the neutral atmosphere, (2) geology and morphology, and (3) surface compositional mapping. In order to achieve these science goals within the constraints of low mass, power and cost, it may be necessary to combine the functions of 3 conventional instruments (CCD camera, Ultra-Violet Spectrometer, and Infrared Spectrometer) into one fully integrated payload. Where possible, this payload would share optics, mechanisms, electronics and packaging.

Henry, Paul K.↗

Impact of Thermochromic Coatings on Thermal Management for Human Spacecraft Applications

Thermochromic variable emittance coatings (VECs) allow for passive, dynamic thermal management of space vehicles due to their temperature dependent optical properties. Ideally, a thermochromic material should exhibit low mid-IR emissivity for lower temperatures and switch to high mid-IR emissivity for higher temperatures; one promising material that demonstrates these characteristics is Lanthanum Strontium Manganite (LSM). The transition temperatures of LSM are dependent on the Lanthanum-to-Strontium ratio x, La1-xSrxMnO3. La0.8Sr0.2MnO3, which has an emittance of 0.5 for < 270 K, then a linear increase in emittance to 0.8 over an increase of 70 K where it will saturate at ~340K, is commonly utilized but this is tunable by changing the Sr concentration. The tunability of the transition temperature range of LSM motivates a need to understand the optimal thermal transition range for human spacecraft. Additionally, LSM has high solar absorptance and to combat this issue the VEC will be micropatterned on top of a highly solar reflective layer of Barium Sulfate (BaSO4). Consequently, this work will elucidate the tradeoffs between solar absorptance and variable emittance for this technology since the micropattern adversely couples the solar absorptance to the mid-IR emittance. This work develops a computational model using Thermal Desktop to study the utility of VECs on human spacecraft, such as Orion, subjected to mission phases such as lunar transit and Gateway docking. The model considers both external heat loads, from solar irradiation and planetary IR, as well as vehicle heat loads, from avionics and crew, as an input into the body mounted thermochromic radiators. There are several design targets for VECs, i.e. achieving the largest change in emittance, finding the optimal temperature range for the transition, and achieving the highest emittance in the high temperature phase. This work prioritizes these design targets for LSM to achieve the optimal heat rejection for a human spacecraft. The VECs are compared with static emittance coatings and the efficiency gains are quantified. Thermochromic VECs will ultimately lead to simplifications of active cooling systems which synergistically correlates to mass reduction and less energy consumption for space vehicles.

Joseph Peoples↗

A Risk-Informed Performance-Based Methodology to Manage Fire Protection Systems in Nuclear Facilities

Fire protection systems (FPSs) and features are installed in U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Hazard Category 1, 2, or 3 nuclear facilities to protect property (maximum possible fire loss thresholds), life, and nuclear safety (i.e., structures, systems, and components). These FPSs and features are designed and maintained in accordance with the prescriptive guidance provided in applicable building codes and National Fire Protection Association codes and standards. Management, operations, and maintenance activities of FPSs involve significant effort. A DOE facility’s documented safety analysis or other safety basis document could also rely on FPSs to provide either a safety significant or safety class function to mitigate fire hazards and minimize radiological consequences. In some cases, the designation of safety significant or safety class may be determined to provide a layer of defense-in-depth to minimize nuclear safety risks independent of the fire risk. DOE standards allow the use of performance-based design alternatives developed by the fire industry but do not consider the defense-in-depth layers of protection provided in DOE facilities to prevent or mitigate the risks associated with unintended release of radioactive materials into the environment. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory developed a decision-making methodology tailored for DOE non-reactor nuclear facilities to manage FPSs and features by integrating nuclear safety risk insights into a performance-based analysis. This risk-informed, performance-based (RIPB) methodology can be used to provide the technical basis for classifying an FPS as safety class and safety significant, tailoring administrative controls (e.g., technical safety requirements), and ranking the importance of FPSs to prioritize maintenance, upgrades, and replacement activities. The RIPB methodology is a graded approach to inform DOE facility owners and Fire Protection Program managers of the most risk-significant FPSs and equipment, and those systems would be cost-beneficial to relax rigor if there is a need to re-design the FPS coverage or deviate from DOE and National Fire Protection Association standards for those systems that would be less significant. This paper describes the framework used to develop the RIPB methodology and the outcome of implementing this methodology in a use-case nuclear facility. This paper also discusses the impact to DOE policies and standards and the safety margins and defense-in-depth measures credited in nuclear safety assessments in a facility’s documented safety analysis and the benefits of implementing an RIPB methodology in lieu of a prescriptive method to comply with fire protection requirements.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Multi-principal element alloys for fast reactor cladding applications

Given the extensive list of multi-principal element alloys (MPEAs) within literature and the overwhelming number of alloys that can be made from only a handful of elements, this article proposes a methodology for prioritizing alloys for use as cladding within advanced reactors. This paper applies neutronic, mechanical, and chemical assessments to a collection of MPEAs available within literature for use as advanced reactor cladding. The results are compared to a reference design of HT9, a ferritic/martensitic steel, for employed in sodium-cooled fast reactor. Mechanical assessments determined pressure limits for a thin-walled tube pressure boundary, thus relating the material's mechanical properties to a minimum acceptable wall thickness. Neutronic analyses reveal a maximum allowable wall thickness that a given material must meet to provide a level of neutronic economy that is equivalent to than that of HT9. Lastly, each alloying element is compared to typical fission products found in a fast reactor fuels to mitigate deleterious phenomena such as fuel-cladding chemical interactions (FCCI). These analyses indicate that Mo-Nb-Ti-V-based alloys are likely to be advantageous and that the inclusion of elements with a high neutronic penalty (e.g., Hf) could be considered with minimal consequences.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Investigating biological nitrogen fixation via single-cell transcriptomics

The extensive use of nitrogen fertilizers has detrimental environmental consequences, and it is essential for society to explore sustainable alternatives. One promising avenue is engineering root nodule symbiosis, a naturally occurring process in certain plant species within the nitrogen-fixing clade, into non-leguminous crops. Advancements in single-cell transcriptomics provide unprecedented opportunities to dissect the molecular mechanisms underlying root nodule symbiosis at the cellular level. This review summarizes key findings from single-cell studies in Medicago truncatula, Lotus japonicus, and Glycine max. We highlight how these studies address fundamental questions about the development of root nodule symbiosis, including the following findings: (i) single-cell transcriptomics has revealed a conserved transcriptional program in root hair and cortical cells during rhizobial infection, suggesting a common infection pathway across legume species; (ii) characterization of determinate and indeterminate nodules using single-cell technologies supports the compartmentalization of nitrogen fixation, assimilation, and transport into distinct cell populations; (iii) single-cell transcriptomics data have enabled the identification of novel root nodule symbiosis genes and provided new approaches for prioritizing candidate genes for functional characterization; and (iv) trajectory inference and RNA velocity analyses of single-cell transcriptomics data have allowed the reconstruction of cellular lineages and dynamic transcriptional states during root nodule symbiosis.

Lotus japonicus↗

Survey of Cyber Risk Analysis Techniques for Use in the Nuclear Industry

Using traditional probabilistic risk analysis methods for severe accident safety risk management on non-digital systems, structures, and components at nuclear power plants is well-established. In contrast, cyber risk analysis of digital assets is still an immature field with unproven techniques due, in part, to the continuously changing threat environment and the challenge of digital assets failing in unexpected ways. As the nuclear fleet continues to adopt digital instrumentation and control systems, it is increasingly important to have effective and efficient cyber risk analysis techniques to support risk management decisions, such as risk elimination by system redesign or risk mitigation by implementation of prioritized security controls. To understand the state of the art in cyber risk analysis for future research, we surveyed 36 publications across ten application domains. We describe our survey methodology and rate each technique based upon scope, adoptability, and repeatability. In this work, we examine the unique constraints of the nuclear industry and outline the strengths and weaknesses of using the cyber risk analysis techniques in the industry, highlighting gaps with current techniques. We also discuss challenges and potential research directions for advancing the science for both existing and new advanced reactors.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Energy Cost Impact of Non-Residential Energy Code Requirements

The 2012 International Energy Conservation Code contains 396 separate requirements applicable to non-residential buildings; however, there is no systematic analysis of the energy cost impact of each requirement. Consequently, limited code department budgets for plan review, inspection, and training cannot be focused on the most impactful items. An inventory and ranking of code requirements based on their potential energy cost impact is under development. The initial phase focuses on office buildings with simple HVAC systems in climate zone 4C. Prototype building simulations were used to estimate the energy cost impact of varying levels of non-compliance. A preliminary estimate of the probability of occurrence of each level of non-compliance was combined with the estimated lost savings for each level to rank the requirements according to expected savings impact. The methodology to develop and refine further energy cost impacts, specific to building type, system type, and climate location is demonstrated. As results are developed, an innovative alternative method for compliance verification can focus efforts so only the most impactful requirements from an energy cost perspective are verified for every building and a subset of the less impactful requirements are verified on a random basis across a building population. The results can be further applied in prioritizing training material development and specific areas of building official training.

code compliance↗

Energy Cost Impact of Non-Residential Energy Code Requirements

The 2012 International Energy Conservation Code contains 396 separate requirements applicable to non-residential buildings; however, there is no systematic analysis of the energy cost impact of each requirement. Consequently, limited code department budgets for plan review, inspection, and training cannot be focused on the most impactful items. An inventory and ranking of code requirements based on their potential energy cost impact is under development. The initial phase focuses on office buildings with simple HVAC systems in climate zone 4C. Prototype building simulations were used to estimate the energy cost impact of varying levels of non-compliance. A preliminary estimate of the probability of occurrence of each level of non-compliance was combined with the estimated lost savings for each level to rank the requirements according to expected savings impact. The methodology to develop and refine further energy cost impacts, specific to building type, system type, and climate location is demonstrated. As results are developed, an innovative alternative method for compliance verification can focus efforts so only the most impactful requirements from an energy cost perspective are verified for every building and a subset of the less impactful requirements are verified on a random basis across a building population. The results can be further applied in prioritizing training material development and specific areas of building official training.

Energy Codes, code compliance↗

A Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk Model

Asteroid threat assessment requires the quantification of both the impact likelihood and resulting consequence across the range of possible events. This paper presents a probabilistic asteroid impact risk (PAIR) assessment model developed for this purpose. The model incorporates published impact frequency rates with state-of-the-art consequence assessment tools, applied within a Monte Carlo framework that generates sets of impact scenarios from uncertain parameter distributions. Explicit treatment of atmospheric entry is included to produce energy deposition rates that account for the effects of thermal ablation and object fragmentation. These energy deposition rates are used to model the resulting ground damage, and affected populations are computed for the sampled impact locations. The results for each scenario are aggregated into a distribution of potential outcomes that reflect the range of uncertain impact parameters, population densities, and strike probabilities. As an illustration of the utility of the PAIR model, the results are used to address the question of what minimum size asteroid constitutes a threat to the population. To answer this question, complete distributions of results are combined with a hypothetical risk tolerance posture to provide the minimum size, given sets of initial assumptions. Model outputs demonstrate how such questions can be answered and provide a means for interpreting the effect that input assumptions and uncertainty can have on final risk-based decisions. Model results can be used to prioritize investments to gain knowledge in critical areas or, conversely, to identify areas where additional data has little effect on the metrics of interest.

Asteroid↗

Aerocapture: An Enabling Technology for Flagship-Class Uranus Orbiter and Probe Mission

Introduction: The current decadal survey published by the National Academies of Sciences has informed National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to prioritize the study of the Ice Giants, especially Uranus. To gather the required data that addresses the science questions raised in this survey, a mission to Uranus with an orbiter and atmospheric probe must be designed. The Uranus Orbiter and Probe (UOP) study, which the survey identified as the flagship mission of this decade, proposes a 2031 launch to take advantage of a Jupiter fly-by and utilizes a fully propulsive orbit insertion design with an Earth-to-Uranus transit times ranging from 13 to 15 years. This fully propulsive orbit insertion at Uranus will be very fuel expensive (wet mass percentages of around 60-70\%) thereby leaving less mass for the scientific payload and additional planetary probes. In addition, scientists are more interested in visiting Uranus before 2049, when the Spring Equinox will occur, as it allows studying Uranus seasons not seen during Voyager 2's flyby in 1987. A NASA Flagship-Class mission would require at least 10 years of lead time prior to launch thereby making the 2031 launch to take advantage of the Jupiter fly-by extremely challenging. The consequence of missing the Jupiter fly-by and launching in the late 2030s is the challenge of a fully-propulsive mission like UOP to have a feasible alternative interplanetary trajectory that reaches Uranus before 2050. As an alternative, to address the shortcomings of the fully propulsive mission, one can design a mission to Uranus using aerocapture. What is aerocapture: Aerocapture is an atmospheric maneuver that uses aerodynamic forces generated by flight within a planetary atmosphere to decelerate and achieve orbit insertion. Using aerocapture allows one to provide the change in velocity (Delta V) needed to slow down from the approach hyperbolic trajectory to achieve the desired captured orbit around the target planet using aerodynamic forces of the vehicle (lift and drag). Using aerodynamic forces instead of fully-propulsive maneuvers results in significant savings in the fuel. Furthermore, aerocapture can also allow one to consider interplanetary trajectories with higher approach hyperbolic velocities, thus reducing the mission transit times. Aerocapture as an enabling technology: To use aerocapture as an enabling technology for the Uranus exploration mission, one would require an integrated system-level design, including a Thermal Protection System (TPS), hardware needed for aerodynamic modulation, and autonomous Guidance, Navigation, and Control (GNC) systems. Aerocapture has yet to be demonstrated, despite considering it for several past missions. Recent advancements in TPS and GNC capabilities show the potential for using rigid, heritage entry vehicle configurations already flown at other planetary bodies for Uranus aerocapture. Aerocapture can be a robust technology that can deliver spacecraft to Uranus science orbits while substantially increasing on-orbit payload mass (more than 40\%) that can enable robust atmospheric entry probes. Additionally, the aerocapture maneuver would reduce the interplanetary transit time by 2–5 years (15-30\%) relative to fully-propulsive orbit insertion. Recent work has shown that one can conduct a flagship-class mission in a shorter period than fully-propulsive missions if using aerocapture. What does aerocapture bring in for a Uranus Mission: Using aerocapture for a Uranus orbiter and atmospheric probe mission can provide one with considerable propellant savings. Spacecraft in interplanetary trajectories to Uranus typically need an Delta V in orders of kilometers per second to insert into science orbit. One would require thousands of kilograms of fuel to achieve such a Delta V using a traditional fully propulsive maneuver, leaving less mass for payload during the mission launch. Aerocapture can reduce the propulsion needs by dissipating energy in the sizable atmosphere of Uranus without a significant mass increase due to the need for an aeroshell. One can use the mass savings achieved using the aerocapture to reduce the launch vehicle requirements. In addition, one can also have additional science instruments on the orbiter or create a robust instrumentation suite on an atmospheric probe that can significantly increase the science outcome of the Uranus exploration mission. Furthermore, since aerocapture performance is relatively insensitive to increases in hyperbolic excess velocity, one can design the interplanetary trajectory to arrive at Uranus faster, reducing the interplanetary transit time and operations cost. All these savings, achieved using aerocapture, could help fit a larger class mission, such as the Uranus mission within a smaller capital, e.g., a Flagship-class orbiter mission in a New Frontiers class capital. Summary: This talk will provide an overview of how aerocapture can enable the Uranus exploration mission. Specifically, this talk will discuss the latest advancements made in the Uranus aerocapture study, such as investigating interplanetary trajectories with higher hyperbolic approach velocities and their implications on the aero heating and the TPS design, incorporating FNPAG (an advanced numerical-predictor guidance) and comparison of multiple navigation approaches. In addition, this talk will focus on mechanical design that can house more than one atmospheric probe and the six degrees of freedom simulation of aerocapture at Uranus. Findings from a recent NASA Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD)-funded activity studying the aerocapture as an enabling technology for a Uranus orbiter will be presented. Using the science payload recommended by the Decadal Survey for Uranus exploration, this work shows many improvements over the baseline fully-propulsive mission. These improvements include a shorter cruise phase, flexibility in launch opportunities late into the 2030s while reaching Uranus before the 2050 equinox for the desired science opportunities, and lower propellant mass needs. This talk will highlight how aerocapture can be utilized for Uranus science orbit insertion using a lower-risk, heritage entry vehicle configuration used extensively as a Mars entry, descent, and landing vehicle. Furthermore, this talk will explore how the demonstration of aerocapture at Earth can benefit the aerocapture-enabled Uranus mission.

Aerocapture↗

CRITICAL FUNCTION ASSURANCE: Understanding Critical Function and Critical Function Delivery is Foundational for Meaningful ICS Security Improvement and Policy Efforts

Modern life is enabled by a complex and interdependent web of critical functions, including energy, communications, transportation, food, and water. Automation has significantly reduced or replaced human interactions in the delivery of these functions, resulting in a web of goods and services that are made available 24/7 only through unique and intentional deployments of microprocessors, software, and firmware technologies. The prospect of cyber-enabled sabotage of these processes disrupts traditional risk determination models. Critical Function Assurance (CFA) is a foundational approach to identifying, prioritizing, and mitigating the risk that is inherent in the delivery of critical functions that depend on digital technology. It provides rapid focus to what matters most and illuminates elements and areas of risk that otherwise are often overlooked. This focus enables effective application of available security resources and optimizes security strategy and policy efforts. This paper introduces CFA to decision makers and risk executives (including CEOs, COOs, CFOs, and CISOs) whose organizations support and deliver the critical functions that underpin national defense, societal health and safety, and a vibrant economy.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Generic HLW Repository In Bedded Salt In Germany: Emplacement Technologies and Repository Designs - 18288

In Germany, a new site selection act for a repository for HLW and SNF entered into force in July 2013 and was amended in spring 2017 [1]. It stipulates that the safety of repository systems for heat-generating radioactive waste and spent nuclear fuel in different host rock formations be compared. This requires that generic repository concepts and adequate safety- and safety demonstration concepts for all potential host rock formations in Germany (salt, clay and crystalline rock) exist. For several decades, development of disposal concepts and safety analyses for a repository in a salt dome was prioritized while repository concepts for clay and crystalline rock have been taken into account for two decades only. So far, bedded salt formations have not been the subject of comparative investigations. Thus, in summer 2015, the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWi) launched the R and D project KOSINA to develop repository designs and carry out safety analyses for different emplacement alternatives in a generic bedded salt formation and a generic salt pillow. KOSINA is an acronym for 'Concept development for a generic repository for heat-generating waste in bedded salt formations in Germany as well as development and testing of a safety and demonstration concept'. Together with its partners BGR, GRS, and IfG, DBE Technology GmbH has successfully carried out an almost three years lasting scientific programme, which will be concluded in April 2018. The core areas of the programme are the development of generic geologic models, including derivation of model parameters, the development of a safety and safety demonstration concept, the development of technical repository designs for four different emplacement alternatives, the analysis of geomechanical integrity, the evaluation of operational safety as well as the analysis of radiological consequences. An interim report, which compiles the basic data of the waste inventory, the repository design requirements, the data basis for geologic model developments, and the outline of a safety and safety demonstration concept, was already published in February 2016. The main achievements of the R and D project KOSINA are the development of four different repository designs, two per each generic geologic model (flat-bedded salt, salt pillow) based on thermomechanical calculations. This includes the implementation of a safety concept that provides containment of the radioactive materials with regard to the technical designs of waste packages, transport and emplacement technologies, and backfilling and sealing concepts. Furthermore, the integrity of the geologic barriers could be demonstrated for all four repository designs, and the long-term predictions showed no radiological releases during the demonstration period of one million years. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Emerging Propulsion Technologies

The Emerging Propulsion Technologies (EPT) investment area is the newest area within the In-Space Propulsion Technology (ISPT) Project and strives to bridge technologies in the lower Technology Readiness Level (TRL) range (2 to 3) to the mid TRL range (4 to 6). A prioritization process, the Integrated In-Space Transportation Planning (IISTP), was developed and applied in FY01 to establish initial program priorities. The EPT investment area emerged for technologies that scored well in the IISTP but had a low technical maturity level. One particular technology, the Momentum-eXchange Electrodynamic-Reboost (MXER) tether, scored extraordinarily high and had broad applicability in the IISTP. However, its technical maturity was too low for ranking alongside technologies like the ion engine or aerocapture. Thus MXER tethers assumed top priority at EPT startup in FY03 with an aggressive schedule and adequate budget. It was originally envisioned that future technologies would enter the ISP portfolio through EPT, and EPT developed an EPT/ISP Entrance Process for future candidate ISP technologies. EPT has funded the following secondary, candidate ISP technologies at a low level: ultra-lightweight solar sails, general space/near-earth tether development, electrodynamic tether development, advanced electric propulsion, and in-space mechanism development. However, the scope of the ISPT program has focused over time to more closely match SMD needs and technology advancement successes. As a result, the funding for MXER and other EPT technologies is not currently available. Consequently, the MXER tether tasks and other EPT tasks were expected to phased out by November 2006. Presentation slides are presented which provide activity overviews for the aerocapture technology and emerging propulsion technology projects.

Keys, Andrew S.↗

A Nonconventional CO 2 -EOR Target in the Illinois Basin: Oil Reservoirs of the Thick Cypress Sandstone

The Illinois State Geological Survey (ISGS) identified and quantified nonconventional carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) enhanced oil recovery (EOR) target opportunities within the thick Cypress Sandstone in the Illinois Basin. Up to 60 m thick Cypress Sandstone bodies define a northeast-southwest fairway that is approximately 230 km long and 100 km wide across the central portion of the Illinois Basin. These sandstones commonly contain relatively thin oil reservoirs and were found to have associated underlying residual oil zones (ROZs). The presence of a thick brine aquifer underlying the ROZ and high vertical permeability results in characteristic low primary oil recovery caused by excessive brine production from the aquifer. Nonconventional CO 2 -EOR in these oil reservoirs are expected to require more CO 2 to produce a unit of oil compared to conventional CO 2 -EOR. Consequently, nonconventional CO 2 -EOR will have a higher storage component and offer a unique storage opportunity. An integrated approach of detailed site-specific geologic reservoir characterization, three-dimensional geocellular modeling, and reservoir simulation of multiple development cases at Noble Field was employed to determine development strategies for CO 2 -EOR and storage. The findings of Noble Field research were leveraged to assess the regional CO 2 -EOR and associated storage resource within the nonconventional reservoirs of the thick Cypress Sandstone in the Illinois Basin. Regional characterization shows that thick, multistory fluvial facies of the Cypress Sandstone exhibits porosity from 15% to 21% and horizontal and vertical permeability up to approximately 0.98 µm 2 (1,000 mD). Oil saturation indicators screened from well records and well log analyses were used to map 27 brownfield and greenfield ROZ prospects with residual oil saturation (S OR ) values ranging from 14 to 35%. ROZ thickness varies from 2.7 to 21.6 m (9 to 71 ft). The 27 Cypress Sandstone ROZ prospects have approximately 290.8 million m 3 (1.8 billion barrels) of oil in place. Specific CO 2 -EOR development strategies depend on the goals of the project (prioritizing EOR performance vs. storage performance and NCNO) and geologic setting (brownfield vs greenfield), and company’s business strategies (economic metrics). Nevertheless, applying two unique development strategies derived from reservoir simulation of the depleted main pay zone and ROZ in the Cypress Sandstone at Noble Field, 31.1 million m 3 (196 million barrels) of oil is estimated to be recoverable using the 80-acre blanket WAG development strategy (which favors EOR and economic metrics, but is carbon positive) whereas 21.3 million m 3 (144 million barrels) of oil is estimated to be recoverable using the 40-acre high CO 2 injection rate development strategy (which favors storage and economic metrics and results in net carbon negative oil production). Storage of CO 2 associated with EOR in these ROZ prospects alone, not accounting for associated main pay zones, underlying brine formation, or intervals adjacent to or between prospects, is estimated to be up to 10.4 billion tonnes using the latter development strategy.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Grand challenges in understanding the interplay of climate and land changes

Half of the Earth s land surface has been altered by human activities, creating various consequences on the climate and weather systems at local to global scales, which in turn affects a myriad of land surface processes and our adaptation behaviors. We here review the status and major knowledge gaps of studying the interactions of land and atmospheric changes and present eleven grand challenge areas for scientific research and adaptation communities in the coming decade: (1) collective and separate impacts of major land changes and the interactions with non-land-change factors such as atmospheric CO2 increase, (2) carbon and other biogeochemical cycles, (3) climatically relevant biospheric emissions such as aerosols, (4) water cycle, (5) agriculture, (6) urbanization, (7) gradual acclimation of plants, communities, and ecosystems to climate and environmental changes, (8) plant migration, (9) land use projections, (10) reduction of uncertainties in models and data, and finally (11) adaptation strategies. We conclude that we need to create and maintain a close cross-disciplinary coordination between measurements and process representation in models to analyze complex multi-facet interrelated perturbations and feedbacks between land and climate changes. Along with major scientific research thrusts, land-use and land cover change mitigation and adaptation assessments should be strengthened to identify barriers that need to be overcome, evaluate and prioritize opportunities, and examine how decision making processes work in specific contexts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗