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DOE OSTI2026

Active Learning‐Driven Inkless Additive Nanomanufacturing for Printed Electronics

Inkless additive nanomanufacturing for printed electronics promises broad material and substrate versatility, yet the high-dimensional print parameter space makes tuning print parameters time-intensive. We present a Bayesian optimization study that constructs a digital twin from printed-silver data to benchmark surrogate models, acquisition functions, and batch sizes head-to-head to achieve user-specified target resistance. Tested surrogate models included Gaussian process, random forest, and Bayesian neural network surrogates with expected improvement and confidence bound acquisition functions. In total, we evaluate 48 unique model configurations alongside a random sampling baseline for comparison. For printed silver, the Bayesian neural network with a batch size of one achieved the lowest average cumulative regret, approximately four times more efficient on average than random sampling. To balance performance and substrate space, a random forest model with expected improvement and a batch size of four was chosen as the model for validation testing. Applying this chosen configuration to copper with an additional print parameter, the model achieved a resistance within 0.15 Ω of a 1 Ω target in fewer than 30 printed lines across five validation sets. Altogether, the workflow yields a tuned and validated model that efficiently guides experiments toward the target while simultaneously learning the parameter space.

Bevel, Colton [Auburn University, AL (United State↗
DOE OSTI2024

Trustworthiness modeling and evaluation for a nearly autonomous management and control system

The Nearly Autonomous Management and Control (NAMAC) system supports the advanced reactor operation by recommending control actions to operators based on real-time measurements and digital twins (DTs) learning from the knowledge base. To enable the safe and reliable use of autonomous technologies, NAMAC and its recommendations should be trustworthy to operators and regulators at both the design and operation stages. This study proposes a NAMAC trustworthiness modeling and evaluation framework supported by trustworthiness ontologies and evidence-based approaches. The development-time and run-time ontologies are separately constructed and then converted to Bayesian networks to quantitatively evaluate the NAMAC trustworthiness. This evaluation is demonstrated by collecting and characterizing evidence from NAMAC practices, such as the development and assessment of the NAMAC system, data coverage assessment, and the training and optimizations of neural-network-based DTs. Our proposed approach can aggregate various trustworthiness attributes of complex artificial-intelligence-supported systems for safety-critical applications. It also considers the interaction between different DTs and extends beyond the trustworthiness evaluation of a single DT. In conclusion, the evidence-based method enhances the transparency of the trustworthiness modeling and evaluation processes and helps identify uncertainties and subjectivity involved in the processes.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

DEVELOPMENT AND DEMONSTRATION TESTBED FOR THE REMOTE OPERATIONS AND MONITORING OF MICROREACTORS

The nuclear industry is rapidly developing many advanced-reactor concepts for near-term deployment in both traditional and non-traditional nuclear-powered applications. One such category of advanced reactor is the microreactor, a class of reactor with less than 20MWth power output, intended for applications where the economics or logistics of traditional power sources are difficult. This includes applications such as remote communities, mining sites, defense installations, or humanitarian and disaster-relief missions. One key enabling feature for the successful deployment of microreactors is a remote operations capability. Remote operations provide monitoring and control capabilities which can significantly reduce staffing costs by eliminating the need for licensed operators at each reactor facility and improve the economic viability for microreactor deployment. A remote concept of operations is not currently an established capability in the nuclear industry. In addition, no demonstration microreactor is expected to complete construction or go critical until at least 2026. This leaves two major capability gaps: the successful demonstration of a remote concept of operations for microreactors and a test bed suitable for said demonstration. Both gaps must be addressed in order to advance the remote concepts of nuclear operation and, more broadly, microreactors themselves from paper to reality. This paper aims to fill these gaps and describes a test bed that would support development and deployment of a remote concept of nuclear operations, initial experimental results from that test bed, and the application of the test bed and experimental results for a digital-twin-based remote concept of operations underdevelopment at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). The platform chosen as a remote concept of nuclear operations test bed is the Single Primary Heat Extraction and Removal Emulator, known as SPHERE, located at INL. SPHERE is a small-scale non-nuclear test bed that emulates thermal behavior of a microreactor. The small-scale and non-nuclear nature of SHPERE limit safety concerns associated with remote operations while still providing the physical response representative of a microreactor. A network connection was added to SPHERE that enables remote-monitoring capability. This allows for real-time data streaming to networked workstations, data historians, and human-machine interfaces (HMIs). These are all critical components in a remote concept of operations, thus providing a robust development and demonstration platform. An initial experiment was performed using the SPHERE remote operations testbed. This included running a comprehensively instrumented SPHERE through a series of steady-state and transient operating scenarios in both normal and abnormal operating conditions, all while streaming live test data to a remote HMI and data warehouse. This initial experiment served three purposes: (1) characterizing the response of SPHERE, (2) demonstrating the remote connection to SPHERE, and (3) providing a baseline data set for development of a digital-twin-based remote concept of operations that is under development at INL.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

DEVELOPMENT AND DEMONSTRATION TESTBED FOR THE REMOTE OPERATIONS AND MONITORING OF MICROREACTORS

The nuclear industry is rapidly developing many advanced-reactor concepts for near-term deployment in both traditional and non-traditional nuclear-powered applications. One such category of advanced reactor is the microreactor, a class of reactor with less than 20MWth power output, intended for applications where the economics or logistics of traditional power sources are difficult. This includes applications such as remote communities, mining sites, defense installations, or humanitarian and disaster-relief missions. One key enabling feature for the successful deployment of microreactors is a remote operations capability. Remote operations provide monitoring and control capabilities which can significantly reduce staffing costs by eliminating the need for licensed operators at each reactor facility and improve the economic viability for microreactor deployment. A remote concept of operations is not currently an established capability in the nuclear industry. In addition, no demonstration microreactor is expected to complete construction or go critical until at least 2026. This leaves two major capability gaps: the successful demonstration of a remote concept of operations for microreactors and a test bed suitable for said demonstration. Both gaps must be addressed in order to advance the remote concepts of nuclear operation and, more broadly, microreactors themselves from paper to reality. This paper aims to fill these gaps and describes a test bed that would support development and deployment of a remote concept of nuclear operations, initial experimental results from that test bed, and the application of the test bed and experimental results for a digital-twin-based remote concept of operations underdevelopment at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). The platform chosen as a remote concept of nuclear operations test bed is the Single Primary Heat Extraction and Removal Emulator, known as SPHERE, located at INL. SPHERE is a small-scale non-nuclear test bed that emulates thermal behavior of a microreactor. The small-scale and non-nuclear nature of SHPERE limit safety concerns associated with remote operations while still providing the physical response representative of a microreactor. A network connection was added to SPHERE that enables remote-monitoring capability. This allows for real-time data streaming to networked workstations, data historians, and human-machine interfaces (HMIs). These are all critical components in a remote concept of operations, thus providing a robust development and demonstration platform. An initial experiment was performed using the SPHERE remote operations testbed. This included running a comprehensively instrumented SPHERE through a series of steady-state and transient operating scenarios in both normal and abnormal operating conditions, all while streaming live test data to a remote HMI and data warehouse. This initial experiment served three purposes: (1) characterizing the response of SPHERE, (2) demonstrating the remote connection to SPHERE, and (3) providing a baseline data set for development of a digital-twin-based remote concept of operations that is under development at INL.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Computationally efficient models for aqueous organic redox flow batteries

The rising usage of intermittent energy has garnered the need for large scale energy storage systems. Redox flow batteries (RFB) based energy storage system shows promising potential. Numerical simulations and machine learning approaches have been widely used to study RFB performance. The development of autonomous material discovery framework and digital twin of energy storage system usually needs to query cell performance through fast response models. In this study, two computationally efficient models are introduced: a physics-based analytical flow battery model (EZBattery), and a machine learning operator model (Deep Operator Network, denoted by DeepONet). Both models can provide cell performance near instantly, and prediction accuracy was systematically examined on an application of evaluating the performances of a 780 cm 2 aqueous organic redox flow battery (AORFB), using potential anolyte candidates in dihydroxyphenazine (DHP)-based family of organic materials. A validated computationally expansive 3-dimensional multi-physics finite element model by COMSOL was used as the ground truth and provided the training data set for the DeepONet. 1280 samples were generated with 10 properties to mimic the different possible anolyte candidates, and the cell performances were evaluated under 10 different combined operating conditions. The accuracy comparisons for the two computationally efficient models show that both models can provide comparable accuracy in predicting cell charging/discharging voltage curves. DeepONet can provide slightly higher overall accuracy than EZBattery with faster calculation speed, but highly relies on the training dataset. EZBattery does not need a training dataset and can provide interpretable physics-based explanations of the results, while being more flexible to adjust to adapt any different cell designs, flow battery architectures, and electrolyte materials.

Analytical model↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Risk-Informed Approach to Trustworthiness Assessment in Digital Twins-Based Autonomous Control

In autonomous control systems, digital twins (DTs) are used to perform diagnostic and prognostic functions. The trustworthiness of these DTs is dependent on quality and coverage of the training data, model accuracy and integrity of sensor data. This work introduces a methodology to determine the trustworthiness of a DT system given faulty sensor data using a risk informed approach. Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) are used to propagate uncertainties and determine the probability of trustable recommendations. The decision to trust the control action provided by the DT is based on the DT output, expert opinion, and severity of problems. The performance of DTs is reliant on the data they are trained on. When they encounter out of distribution data, the trustworthiness of the recommendations decreases. To address this issue, we include an expert component that provides input on sensor degradation. For this, we utilize a generative artificial intelligence (AI) model, such as Generative Pretrained Transformer (GPT). The GPT functions as an expert with broad knowledge. The GPT is fine-tuned to understand and discriminate sensor degradation scenarios using manufactured data. This methodology is demonstrated through a case study on a Nearly Autonomous Management and Control System (NAMAC) during a steady state scenario. Various sensor degradation types with different severity levels are considered. Degraded sensor data is processed by the DT system and the fine-tuned GPT. Finally, using the BBN, we combine the GPT information and the DT output with its sources of uncertainty. This provides an output regarding the trustworthiness of the DT recommendation.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine Learning for LBNF Beam Diagnostics

This paper focuses on developing a machine learning model for predicting initial beam parameters for the Long Baseline Neutrino Facility (LBNF) beamline using downstream muon monitor data. Parameters such as proton beam position on target, sigma on target, focusing horn current, and focusing horn tilt are parameters we anticipate to be predictable based on the muon monitors. Uncertainty in initial beam condition measurements are a major contributor to uncertainty in downstream flux, and over operation time beam misalignment can occur [1]. A machine learning model has promise to detect anomalies along the beamline based on discrepancies between predicted configurations and measured configurations, and thus can expedite error detection and handling. A PyTorch neural network is defined, trained, and tested. The developed model currently does not provide reliable predictions, with the lowest loss being 0.09.. Further steps to improve the model’s accuracy are discussed, as well as future plans to detect anomalous beam conditions using a digital twin.

O'Brien, Bridget [Fermilab]↗
DOE OSTI2023

Deep neural operators can predict the real-time response of floating offshore structures under irregular waves

The use of neural operators in a digital twin model of an offshore floating structure holds the potential for a significant shift in the prediction of structural responses and health monitoring, offering valuable real-time control insights. In this work, we investigate the effectiveness of three neural operators, namely the deep operator network (DeepONet), the Fourier neural operator (FNO), and the Wavelet neural operator (WNO), to accurately capture the responses of a floating structure under six different sea state codes (3 − 8) based on the wave characteristics described by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). To further enhance the accuracy of the vanilla architecture of the neural operators, novel extensions, such as wavelet-DeepONet and self-adaptive WNO, are proposed in this paper. The results demonstrate that these high-precision neural operators can deliver structural responses more efficiently, up to two orders of magnitude faster than a dynamic analysis using conventional numerical solvers. Additionally, compared to gated recurrent units (GRUs), a commonly used recurrent neural network for time-series estimation, neural operators are both more accurate and efficient, especially in situations with limited data availability. Taken together, our study shows that FNO outperforms all other operators for approximating the mapping of one input functional space to the output space as well as for responses that have small bandwidth of the frequency spectrum. Conversely, DeepONet, with historical states, proves most accurate in learning the mapping of multiple input functions to the output space and capturing responses within a broad frequency spectrum.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

One-Step Ahead Prediction of Thermal Mixing Tee Sensors with Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) Neural Networks

High-temperature advanced reactors under development, such as sodium fast reactors (SFR) and molten salt cooled reactors (MSCR), are expected to offer lower levelized cost of energy (LCOE) compared to existing light water reactor (LWR’s). In the existing light water reactors (LWR’s), operation and maintenance (O&M) expenses constitute the largest fraction of the total operating cost. Some of the O&M costs are related maintenance of sensors which can fail due to exposure to harsh environment in a reactor. The O&M costs of Advanced Reactor (AR)’s are expected to constitute a significant fraction of the total cost as well, because of high temperature and radiation level in AR are likely to cause material fatigue and premature failure of sensors and components. The O&M costs in AR’s could be reduced through integration of advanced informatics of performance-related sensors into a digital twin designed for reactor monitoring. For example, machine learning (ML) could be employed for real-time validation and correction of performance-related sensors, and reducing the number of performance-related physical sensor units through virtual sensing. As part of the effort, we investigate real-time validation of thermal hydraulic sensors through one-step ahead forecasting of sensor values using long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural networks (RNN). The sensors are installed in a flow loop containing a thermal mixing tee, which is a common experimental model to study thermal fatigue in a thermal hydraulic loop. In addition, nonlinear transients generated in a thermal mixing tee constitute a good challenge data set for training and validation of ML algorithms. Sensors in this study include thermocouples, flow meters, and optical fibers for distributed temperature sensing. In one experiment, measurement data sets were obtained for a loop was filled with water, and in another experiment, measurements were performed on a loop filled with liquid metal Galinstan. We have also conducted preliminary investigation of one-step ahead prediction of fiber optics-based distributed temperature sensing with LSTM networks. In predicting fiber-based temperature measurements, we treated each gauge pitch of the fiber as an independent sensor. Accuracy of one-step ahead forecasting was estimated by calculating root mean square error (RMSE) for the test segment of time series of each sensor. RMSE’s for temperature sensors in water loop were, for the most part, lower than for the same sensors in Galinstan loop. The RMSE’s for flow meters were similar for both loops. The RMSE’s for distributed temperature measured with the fiber optic sensor were similar to those of the point sensors. Results of this study demonstrated the capability of LSTM one-step ahead forecasting with RMSE comparable to uncertainty in sensor measurements.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

GenAI-Based Digital Twins Aided Data Augmentation Increases Accuracy in Real-Time Cokurtosis-Based Anomaly Detection of Wearable Data

Early detection of potential infectious disease outbreaks is crucial for developing effective interventions. In this study, we introduce advanced anomaly detection methods tailored for health datasets collected from wearables, offering insights at both individual and population levels. Leveraging real-world physiological data from wearables, including heart rate and activity, we developed a framework for the early detection of infection in individuals. Despite the availability of data from recent pandemics, substantial gaps remain in data collection, hindering method development. To bridge this gap, we utilized Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Networks (WGANs) to generate realistic synthetic wearable data, augmenting our dataset for training. Subsequently, we use these augmented datasets to implement a cokurtosis-based technique for anomaly detection in multivariate time-series data. Our approach includes a comprehensive assessment of uncertainties in synthetic data compared to the actual data upon which it was modeled, as well as the uncertainty associated with fine-tuning anomaly detection thresholds in physiological measurements. Through our work, we present an enhanced method for early anomaly detection in multivariate datasets, with promising applications in healthcare and beyond. This framework could revolutionize early detection strategies and significantly impact public health response efforts in future pandemics.

Data-Driven Digital Twins↗
DOE OSTI2025

Next-Level Energy Management in Manufacturing: Facility-Level Energy Digital Twin Framework Based on Machine Learning and Automated Data Collection

This research introduces an energy prediction framework at the facility level supported by automated data collection and machine learning models. It investigates whether reducing the prediction time scale allows for applying more complex machine learning techniques and if those techniques improve the prediction accuracy. The primary advantages of this framework lie in its automation of the energy prediction process and its provision of real-time energy data suitable for use in energy dashboards or digital twins. A sitewide dataset was created by combining 15 min energy and daily production data of five shops—assembly, battery, body (electric), body (gas), and paint—from a globally recognized electric vehicle manufacturer. Various machine learning models were evaluated on daily, weekly, and monthly datasets, including, in increasingly complex order: naïve, simple linear regression, net regularized generalized linear regression, principal component regression, k-nearest neighbor, random forest, and Bayesian regularized neural network. Compared to the current state-of-the-art energy consumption prediction for the industrial facility level, this research investigates more complex models and smaller time intervals for higher accuracy. The findings revealed that the more complex monthly models require a minimum of a year and a half of data to operate, while weekly models demand a year of data to achieve improved accuracy. Daily models can operate with only six months of data but exhibit poor performance due to reduced prediction accuracy of production. Key challenges identified include access to reliable, high-quality energy and production data and the initial demand for human labor.

digital twin↗
DOE OSTI2023

Digital Twin for Hydropower System Object Modeling: Alder Dam (FY2023)

Hydropower is the world's largest source of renewable electricity, and hydropower plants are distributed all over the world. Typical major components of a hydropower plant are the governor, excitation, generator, thrust bearing, hydraulic turbine, transformer, the main lead, metering and control, tailwater depression, and dissolved oxygen. For each component, various measures are taken. The measurements are acquired by various heterogeneous systems, including standalone sensors, programmable logic controllers (PLC), Supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA), Internet of Things (IoT), and data acquisition and integration platforms such as OSI/PI. The measured data are often archived within the plant by a data management platform, and many institutions have cloud-based archive systems, such as Hydropower Research Institution (HRI), U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), and Columbia River Data Access in Real Time (DART). Object Modeling is a general framework for designing information systems. It focuses on objects, the actions they perform, and the messages they send to one another to cause those actions to be taken. The major differences among object modeling, network modeling, data modeling, and process modeling are that in the first we focus on the actions in response to information, objects which form the system, the actions they perform, and how they pass information to one another, while in the second we concentrate on where, when and how much information is moved, while in the third we focus on what information is moved and where it is moved, while in the last we focus on how it is moved and when it is moved. Object modeling was developed basically as a method to develop object-oriented systems and to support object-oriented programming. It describes the static structure of the system. The object Modeling Technique is easy to draw and use. That is why we choose object modeling to connect physical hydropower plants to Digital Twin. It recognizes the objects and the relationship between them. It identifies the attributes and functions of each class. Dynamic Modeling: It explains how objects respond to events. Functional Modeling indicates the processes executed in an object and how data changes when it moves to objects. It has been used in many applications like telecommunication, transportation, etc.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Development of an Encoding Method on an Co-simulation Platform for Mitigating the Impact of Unreliable Communication

This report presents a hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) based modeling approach for simulating impacts of unreliable communication on the performance of centralized volt-var control and for developing an encoding method to mitigate the impacts. First, an asynchronous real-time HIL simulation platform is introduced to enable multi-rate co-simulation of a distribution system with many inverter-based distributed energy resources (DERs). The distribution system is modeled by milliseconds phasor-based models and the DERs are modeled by micro-seconds power electronic models. Communication connections between a centralized volt-var controller (modeled externally to the HIL testbed) and smart inverters are built by implementing Modbus links and the Long Term Evolution network. On this co-simulation platform, an enhanced, augmented Lagrangian multiplier based encoded data recovery (EALM-EDR) algorithm for mitigating the impact of unreliable communication is developed and validated. Simulation results demonstrate the efficacy of using the HIL-based co-simulation platform as a power grid digital twin for developing algorithms that coordinate a large number of heterogeneous control systems through wired and wireless communication links.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Digital Twin for Chemical Science: a case study on water interactions on the Ag(111) surface

Directly visualizing chemical trajectories offers insights into catalysis, gas-phase reactions and photoinduced dynamics. Tracking the transformation of chemical species is best achieved by coupling theory and experiment. Here we developed Digital Twin for Chemical Science (DTCS) v.01, which integrates theory, experiment and their bidirectional feedback loops into a unified platform for chemical characterization. DTCS addresses a core question: given a set of experimental conditions, what is the expected outcome and why? It consists of a forward solver that takes a chemical reaction network and predicts spectra under experimental conditions, and an inverse solver that infers kinetics from measured spectra. We applied DTCS to ambient-pressure X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy measurements of the Ag–H2O interface as an example. This approach enables real-time knowledge extraction and guides experiments until a stopping condition is met based on accuracy and degeneracy. As a step toward autonomous chemical characterization, DTCS provides mechanistic knowledge in a verified, standardized manner.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2024

Photovoltaic Analysis and Response Support (PARS) Platform for Solar Situational Awareness and Resiliency Services

The project's primary objective is to develop a digital-twin based Photovoltaic (PV) Analysis and Response Support (PARS) platform, which aims to provide real-time situational awareness and optimal response plans. This platform is designed to enhance the performance of hybrid PV systems, making them competitive with or even superior to conventional generation resources. The PARS platform enabled the project team to develop and evaluate an extensive suite of grid support functionalities for the hybrid PV systems to enhance grid performance, across key areas including visibility, dispatchability, security, resilience, and reliability. Given the global push toward achieving 100% clean energy by 2035, there is a significant increase in the integration of inverter-based resources (IBRs) throughout the energy grid. Effectively managing the inherent variability and uncertainty associated with IBRs is crucial for ensuring cost-effectiveness, reliability, and security in both the main grid and islanded microgrids. Constrained to a limited array of IEEE test systems or standard feeder models, traditional IBR modeling struggles to assimilate new field data, accurately reflect system dynamics, and adapt to the evolving energy landscape. In our project, we embraced a Digital Twin (DT) strategy for crafting the PARS platform. A digital twin acts as a precise virtual counterpart of a physical system, built on historical data and continuously honed with real-time insights. This enables the high-fidelity DT to accurately mirror current system operations and forecast future scenarios. Consequently, the PARS platform becomes an ideal environment for testing and refining monitoring, control, power, and energy management algorithms designed to boost hybrid PV system performance. The defining feature of the PARS platform, distinguishing it from other advanced simulation tools, is its exceptional adaptability. This is achieved by employing actual network topologies and utilizing real-time field data for fine-tuning and calibration, ensuring a close emulation of real-world conditions. The project deliverables include: 1) High-fidelity IBR models and tools for real-time parameterization, utilizing real-time field measurements to refine IBR models for enhanced accuracy and performance; 2) Grid-forming and Grid-following capabilities to deliver resilience services, including blackstart, voltage and frequency support, cold-load pick-up, power reserves, and three-phase load balancing across grid-connected and microgrid settings; 3) Machine learning-based forecasting tools and methods for generating synthetic data and topologies, creating diverse and realistic simulation environments for evaluating varied operational scenarios; 4) Advanced microgrid power and energy management algorithms for optimizing the integration and operation of PV, storage, and demand response resources within both feeder and community scales. The power grid data sets are provided by four utility companies in North Carolina and the New York Power Administration. Acting as industry advisors, our industry partners communicated stakeholder needs and regulatory standards to the research teams, aiding technology transfer by incorporating the developed methodologies into their daily operations. This collaboration ensures that the PARS platform, functioning as a power system digital twin, enhances our understanding of IBR dynamic behaviors and enables the development and evaluation of IBR control functions that match or exceed the capabilities of conventional synchronous generators.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Integrated Spatial, Spectral, & Temporal Optical Reflectance System for Precision Occupancy & Location Sensing to Improve Building Energy Efficiency

Buildings consume approximately 35% of the electricity used in the U.S. and building owners can significantly reduce this energy use by providing services like heating, electrical power and lighting only when people are present. The ARPAe funded program titled “INTEGRATED SPATIAL, SPECTRAL, & TEMPORAL OPTICAL REFLECTANCE SYSTEM FOR PRECISION OCCUPANCY & LOCATION SENSING TO IMPROVE BUILDING ENERGY EFFICIENCY” demonstrates how a low cost sensor technology developed for measuring distances can be used to count and locate occupants with a high degree of precision with a very low error rates. This platform tells a building control system where occupants are located (but not who they are) so that energy consuming services can be provided only when the services are needed by building occupants. The original proof of concept involved using low cost, commercially available time-of-flight (TOF) sensors that measure distance, but the performance of these existing sensors was lacking, as they could not operate properly in the presence of sunlight, which blinded the simple TOF sensors and limited their utility in buildings. This project proposed a powerful new class of TOF sensors that used state-of-the-art integrated circuit (IC) fabrication processes that combined advanced photonics with conventional silicon chip circuitry for improved sensor performance. An equally important part of this project was to find ways to maximize occupant count and location accuracy while using the fewest number of sensors possible, in order to keep costs low. By using building blueprints to create digital twins of commercial building spaces, the team developed new algorithms to maximize occupant count and tracking accuracy by properly locating the minimum number of sensors at just the right spots in the building. This capability not only minimizes system costs but also simplified sensor installation and system commissioning. Our simulations of our sensor networks for a range of commercial floorplan designs demonstrated that our installed cost target of $0.08/sqft was attainable, though not fully demonstrated during the project. Finally, we noted that the TOF sensor concept could provide a valuable role in health and eldercare by tracking patients without the need for worn sensors and would be useful for fall detection and other patient safety metrics, including tracking healthcare/patient interactions. We feel that, when fully developed, this new class of sophisticated TOF sensors and support software will be a powerful new approach to improving building energy efficiency based on occupant centric control platforms and will also open new levels of patient safety in healthcare operations. To realize this potential, the team formed the Troy Sensor Company LLC to oversee licensing of the programs patents and continue to seek commercialization of this program’s activity sensing technologies.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

GRUMDN: A Multi-Task Model for Predicting Human Patterns-of-Life from Stay Transition Data

Understanding human patterns-of-life (PoL) is essential towards ensuring safe and secure indoor facility environment as well as outdoor urban environment. Prediction of human movement in between places of interest is vital in understanding human PoL. Movement between spaces maybe represented and detected in one of the two forms: 1) trajectories: locations measured at regular time intervals by mobile sensors, bluetooth or GPS sensors; or 2) stay transitions: semantic PoI (points of interest) and stay duration data measurable by eventbased sensors that collect data when a check-in or check-out event is detected. Stay transition data provides a more compressed data format compared to trajectories data, especially in situations with longer stay durations, while preserving the information necessary for PoL analysis. Now as introduced briefly in the paper, our deployed end application (Digital Twin of a facility with non-player characters, besides the interactive user in virtual reality) needed a well-performing and validated AI/ML model for simulating high quality stay transitions behavior. In this study we thus primarily present our findings with developing and validating that model, which is a multi-task neural network for stay transition prediction. The neural network consists of two heads, for corresponding two tasks of stay category prediction and stay duration prediction. We evaluated gated recurrent units and multi-layer perceptrons of varying network sizes for stay category prediction; while mixture density networks, noisy generator-only networks, and generative adversarial networks of varying network sizes for stay duration prediction. We have then evaluated four multi-task models, constructed by combining these specialized models, on their ability to predict stay transition data. We tested our models on datasets from two different cases: 1) a simulation-generated dataset of indoor movement within the HFIR (high flux isotope reactor) nuclear reactor facility at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL); and 2) the GeoLife human mobility dataset of outdoor urban movement available in literature. Our results indicate that GRUMDN, which combines gated recurrent units (GRU) for stay category prediction task, and mixture density networks (MDN) for stay duration prediction task, did overall outperform other multitask models and the current state-of-the-art.

Gunaratne, Chathika [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000225088745↗