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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Assessing the design of integrated methane sensing networks

Abstract While methane is the second largest contributor to global warming after carbon dioxide, it has a larger warming effect over a much shorter lifetime. Despite accelerated technological efforts to radically reduce global carbon dioxide emissions, rapid reductions in methane emissions are needed to limit near-term warming. Being primarily emitted as a byproduct from agricultural activities and energy extraction, methane is currently monitored via bottom–up (i.e. activity level) or top–down (via airborne or satellite retrievals) approaches. However, significant methane leaks remain undetected and emission rates are challenging to characterize with current monitoring frameworks. In this paper, we study the design of a layered monitoring approach that combines bottom–up and top–down approaches as an integrated sensing network. By recognizing that varying meteorological conditions and emission rates impact the efficacy of bottom–up monitoring, we develop a probabilistic approach to optimal sensor placement in its bottom–up network. Subsequently, we derive an inverse Bayesian framework to quantify the improvement that a design-optimized integrated framework has on emission-rate quantifications and their uncertainties. We find that under realistic meteorological conditions, the overall error in estimating the true emission rates is approximately 1.3 times higher, with their uncertainties being approximately 2.4 times higher, when using a randomized network over an optimized network, highlighting the importance of optimizing the design of integrated methane sensing networks. Further, we find that optimized networks can improve scenario coverage fractions by more than a factor of 2 over experimentally-studied networks, and identify a budget threshold beyond which the rate of optimized-network coverage improvement exhibits diminishing returns, suggesting that strategic sensor placement is also crucial for maximizing network efficiency.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Optimal Client Sampling in Federated Learning with Client-level Heterogeneous Differential Privacy

Federated Learning with client-level differential privacy (DP) provides a promising framework for collaboratively training models while rigorously protecting clients’ privacy. However, classic approaches like DP-FedAvg struggle when clients have heterogeneous privacy requirements, as they must uniformly enforce the strictest privacy level across all clients, leading to excessive DP noise and significant degradation in model utility. Existing methods to improve the model utility in such heterogeneous privacy settings often assume a trusted server and are largely heuristic, resulting in suboptimal performance and lacking strong theoretical foundations. Here, in this work, we address these challenges under a practical attack model where both clients and the server are honest-but-curious. We propose GDPFed, which partitions clients into groups based on their privacy budgets and achieves client-level DP within each group to reduce the privacy budget waste and hence improve the model utility. Based on the privacy and convergence analysis of GDPFed, we find that the magnitude of DP noise depends on both model dimensionality and the per-group client sampling ratios. To further improve the performance of GDPFed, we introduce GDPFed+, which integrates model sparsification to eliminate unnecessary noise and optimizes per-group client sampling ratios to minimize convergence error. Extensive empirical evaluations on multiple benchmark datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of GDPFed+, showing substantial performance gains compared with state-of-the-art methods.

Xu, Jiahao [Univ. of Nevada, Reno, NV (United Stat↗
DOE OSTI2021

Adaptive resource allocation for surrogate modeling of systems comprised of multiple disciplines with varying fidelity

We present an adaptive algorithm for constructing surrogate models for integrated systems composed of a set of coupled components. With this goal we introduce ‘coupling’ variables with a priori unknown distributions that allow approximations of each component to be built independently. Once built, the surrogates of the components are combined and used to predict system-level quantities of interest (QoI) at a fraction of the cost of interrogating the full system model. We use a greedy experimental design procedure, based upon a modification of Multi-Index Stochastic Collocation (MISC), to minimize the error of the combined surrogate. This is achieved by refining each component surrogate in accordance with its relative contribution to error in the approximation of the system-level QoI. Our adaptation of MISC is a multi-fidelity procedure that can leverage ensembles of models of varying cost and accuracy, for one or more components, to produce estimates of system-level QoI. Several numerical examples demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approach on systems involving feed-forward and feedback coupling. For a fixed computational budget, the proposed algorithm is able to produce approximations that are orders of magnitude more accurate than approximations that treat the integrated system as a black-box.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Optimal Experimental Design for Inverse Problems in the Presence of Observation Correlations

Optimal experimental design (OED) is the general formalism of sensor placement and decisions on the data collection strategy for engineered or natural experiments. This problem is prevalent in many critical fields such as battery design, numerical weather prediction, geosciences, environmental and urban studies. State-of-the-art computational methods for experimental design do not accommodate correlation structure in observational errors produced by many expensive-to-operate devices such as X-ray machines, radars, and satellites. Discarding evident data correlations leads to biased results, higher expenses, and waste of valuable resources. We present a general formulation of the OED formalism for model-constrained large-scale Bayesian linear inverse problems, where measurement errors are generally correlated. The proposed approach utilizes the Hadamard product of matrices to formulate the weighted-likelihood, and is valid for both finite as well as infinite-dimensional Bayesian inverse problems. Extensive numerical experiments are carried out for empirical verification of the proposed approach using an advection-diffusion model, where the objective is to optimally place a small set of sensors, under a limited budget, to predict the concentration of a contaminant in a closed and bounded domain.

Correlated observations↗
DOE OSTI2020

Exploring Hilbert space on a budget: Novel benchmark set and performance metric for testing electronic structure methods in the regime of strong correlation

This work explores the ability of classical electronic structure methods to efficiently represent (compress) the information content of full configuration interaction (FCI) wave functions. We introduce a benchmark set of four hydrogen model systems of different dimensionalities and distinctive electronic structures: a 1D chain, a 1D ring, a 2D triangular lattice, and a 3D close-packed pyramid. To assess the ability of a computational method to produce accurate and compact wave functions, we introduce the accuracy volume, a metric that measures the number of variational parameters necessary to achieve a target energy error. Using this metric and the hydrogen models, we examine the performance of three classical deterministic methods: (i) selected configuration interaction (sCI) realized both via an a posteriori (ap-sCI) and variational selection of the most important determinants, (ii) an a posteriori singular value decomposition (SVD) of the FCI tensor (SVD-FCI), and (iii) the matrix product state representation obtained via the density matrix renormalization group (DMRG). We find that the DMRG generally gives the most efficient wave function representation for all systems, particularly in the 1D chain with a localized basis. For the 2D and 3D systems, all methods (except DMRG) perform best with a delocalized basis, and the efficiency of sCI and SVD-FCI is closer to that of DMRG. For larger analogs of the models, the DMRG consistently requires the fewest parameters but still scales exponentially in 2D and 3D systems, and the performance of SVD-FCI is essentially equivalent to that of ap-sCI.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Domain-specific compilers for dynamic simulations of quantum materials on quantum computers

Abstract Simulation of the dynamics of quantum materials is emerging as a promising scientific application for noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) computers. Due to their high gate-error rates and short decoherence times, however, NISQ computers can only produce high-fidelity results for those quantum circuits smaller than some given circuit size. Dynamic simulations, therefore, pose a challenge as current algorithms produce circuits that grow in size with each subsequent time-step of the simulation. This underscores the crucial role of quantum circuit compilers to produce executable quantum circuits of minimal size, thereby maximizing the range of physical phenomena that can be studied within the NISQ fidelity budget. Here, we present two domain-specific (DS) quantum circuit compilers for the Rigetti and IBM quantum computers, specifically designed to compile circuits simulating dynamics under a special class of time-dependent Hamiltonians. The compilers outperform state-of-the-art general-purpose compilers in terms of circuit size reduction by around 25%–30% as well as wall-clock compilation time by around 40% (dependent on system size and simulation time-step). Drawing on heuristic techniques commonly used in artificial intelligence, both compilers scale well with simulation time-step and system size. Code for both compilers is open-source and packaged into a full-stack quantum simulation software with tutorials included for ease of use for future researchers wishing to perform dynamic simulations of quantum materials on quantum computers. As our DS compilers provide significant improvements in both compilation time and simulation fidelity, they provide a building block for accelerating progress toward physical quantum supremacy.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Profiling the molecular destruction rates of temperature and humidity as well as the turbulent kinetic energy dissipation in the convective boundary layer

A simultaneous deployment of Doppler, temperature, and water-vapor lidars is able to provide profiles of molecular destruction rates and turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) dissipation in the convective boundary layer (CBL). Horizontal wind profiles and profiles of vertical wind, temperature, and moisture fluctuations are combined, and transversal temporal autocovariance functions (ACFs) are determined for deriving the dissipation and molecular destruction rates. These are fundamental loss terms in the TKE as well as the potential temperature and mixing ratio variance equations. These ACFs are fitted to their theoretical shapes and coefficients in the inertial subrange. Error bars are estimated by a propagation of noise errors. Sophisticated analyses of the ACFs are performed in order to choose the correct range of lags of the fits for fitting their theoretical shapes in the inertial subrange as well as for minimizing systematic errors due to temporal and spatial averaging and micro- and mesoscale circulations. We demonstrate that we achieve very consistent results of the derived profiles of turbulent variables regardless of whether 1 or 10 s time resolutions are used. We also show that the temporal and spatial length scales of the fluctuations in vertical wind, moisture, and potential temperature are similar with a spatial integral scale of ≈160 m at least in the mixed layer (ML). The profiles of the molecular destruction rates show a maximum in the interfacial layer (IL) and reach values of ϵ m ≃ 7 x 10 -4 g 2 kg −2 s −1 for mixing ratio and ϵ θ ≃ 1.6 x 10 -3 K 2 s −1 for potential temperature. In contrast, the maximum of the TKE dissipation is reached in the ML and amounts to ≃ 10 -2 m 2 s −3 . We also demonstrate that the vertical wind ACF coefficient k w ∝ $\overline{w'^{2}}$ and the TKE dissipation ϵ ∝ ($\overline{w'^{2}}$) 3/2 . For the molecular destruction rates, we show that ϵ m ∝ $\overline{m'^{2}}$ ($\overline{w'^{2}}$) 1/2 and ϵ θ ∝ $\overline{θ'^{2}}$ ($\overline{w'^{2}}$) 1/2 . These equations can be used for parameterizations of ϵ, ϵ m , and ϵ θ . All noise error bars are derived by error propagation and are small enough to compare the results with previous observations and large-eddy simulations. The results agree well with previous observations but show more detailed structures in the IL. Consequently, the synergy resulting from this new combination of active remote sensors enables the profiling of turbulent variables such as integral scales, variances, TKE dissipation, and the molecular destruction rates as well as deriving relationships between them. The results can be used for the parameterization of turbulent variables, TKE budget analyses, and the verification of large-eddy simulations.

dissipation rate↗
DOE OSTI2022

Trends in Downwelling Longwave Radiance Over the Southern Great Plains

Downwelling longwave radiation is an important part of the surface energy budget. Spectral trends in the downwelling longwave radiance (DLR) provide insight into the radiative drivers of climate change. In this research, we process and analyze a 23-year DLR record measured by the Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer (AERI) at the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Program Southern Great Plains (SGP) site. Two AERIs were deployed at SGP with an overlapping observation period of about 10 years, which allows us to examine the consistency and accuracy of the measurements and to account for discrepancies between them due to errors associated with the instruments themselves. We then analyzed the all-sky radiance trends in DLR, which are associated with the surface warming trend at SGP during this same period and also the complex changes in meteorological conditions. For instance, the observed radiance in the CO2 absorption band follows closely the near-surface air temperature variations. The significant positive radiance trends in weak absorption channels, such as in the wings of the CO 2 band and in the weak absorption channels in the H 2 O vibration-rotational band, show earlier detectability of climate change. The magnitude of the radiance trend uncertainty in the DLR record mainly results from internal climate variability rather than from measurement error, which highlights the importance of continuing the DLR spectral measurements to unambiguously detect and attribute climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Improving the efficiency of learning-based error mitigation

Error mitigation will play an important role in practical applications of near-term noisy quantum computers. Current error mitigation methods typically concentrate on correction quality at the expense of frugality (as measured by the number of additional calls to quantum hardware). To fill the need for highly accurate, yet inexpensive techniques, we introduce an error mitigation scheme that builds on Clifford data regression (CDR). The scheme improves the frugality by carefully choosing the training data and exploiting the symmetries of the problem. We test our approach by correcting long range correlators of the ground state of XY Hamiltonian on IBM Toronto quantum computer. We find that our method is an order of magnitude cheaper while maintaining the same accuracy as the original CDR approach. The efficiency gain enables us to obtain a factor of 10 improvement on the unmitigated results with the total budget as small as 2 ⋅ 10 5 shots. Furthermore, we demonstrate orders of magnitude improvements in frugality for mitigation of energy of the LiH ground state simulated with IBM's Ourense-derived noise model.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

DSCOVR/EPIC-derived global hourly and daily downward shortwave and photosynthetically active radiation data at 0.1° × 0.1° resolution

Downward shortwave radiation (SW) and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) play crucial roles in Earth system dynamics. Spaceborne remote sensing techniques provide a unique means for mapping accurate spatiotemporally continuous SW–PAR, globally. However, any individual polar-orbiting or geostationary satellite cannot satisfy the desired high temporal resolution (sub-daily) and global coverage simultaneously, while integrating and fusing multisource data from complementary satellites/sensors is challenging because of co-registration, intercalibration, near real-time data delivery and the effects of discrepancies in orbital geometry. The Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera (EPIC) on board the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR), launched in February 2015, offers an unprecedented possibility to bridge the gap between high temporal resolution and global coverage and characterize the diurnal cycles of SW–PAR globally. In this study, we adopted a suite of well-validated data-driven machine-learning models to generate the first global land products of SW–PAR, from June 2015 to June 2019, based on DSCOVR/EPIC data. The derived products have high temporal resolution (hourly) and medium spatial resolution (0.1°×0.1°), and they include estimates of the direct and diffuse components of SW–PAR. We used independently widely distributed ground station data from the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN), the Surface Radiation Budget Network (SURFRAD), NOAA's Global Monitoring Division and the U.S. Department of Energy's Atmospheric System Research (ASR) program to evaluate the performance of our products, and we further analyzed and compared the spatiotemporal characteristics of the derived products with the benchmarking Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System Synoptic (CERES) data. We found both the hourly and daily products to be consistent with ground-based observations (e.g., hourly and daily total SWs have low biases of -3.96 and -0.71 W m -2 and root-mean-square errors (RMSEs) of 103.50 and 35.40 W m -2 , respectively). The developed products capture the complex spatiotemporal patterns well and accurately track substantial diurnal, monthly, and seasonal variations in SW–PAR when compared to CERES data. They provide a reliable and valuable alternative for solar photovoltaic applications worldwide and can be used to improve our understanding of the diurnal and seasonal variabilities of the terrestrial water, carbon and energy fluxes at various spatial scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Validating a Dynamic PWR Safety and Security Model?

Nuclear power plants (NPPs) are assessed for safety and security using separate models that cannot capture how an attacker's decisions and a plant's response unfold together in real time, leaving regulators and operators without a complete picture of true plant vulnerability. Traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methods treat adversarial events as fixed initiators with predetermined outcomes, and are structurally incapable of representing the time-dependent interplay between physical security events, safety system response, and operator mitigative actions. At Idaho National Laboratory (INL), I contributed to the development and validation of Modeling and Analysis for Safety and Security using the Dynamic EMRALD Framework (MASS-DEF). Where static PRA relies on event-tree logic that cannot evolve mid-scenario, MASS-DEF couples a time-dependent dynamic PRA tool EMRALD (Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams) with attack simulation software, allowing attacker behavior, plant system states, and operator actions to interact across time. My work focused on validating a general Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) model. I traced model logic against PWR plant to identified errors in logic and confirm accuracy. I then built and tested attack scenarios against a general PWR model to verify that the model produced expected outcomes across all logical pathways. I also contributed a section to a related technical paper applying the same EMRALD platform to radiation dose modeling. Results show that MASS-DEF can quantitatively demonstrate that many plants exceed their regulatory security thresholds. This demonstrated margin provides a technically defensible basis for reducing the number of guards without compromising regulatory compliance. Physical security costs represent roughly 10% of annual operating budgets, making such reductions directly meaningful to INL's mission of sustaining existing commercial NPPs. This internship strengthened my understanding of nuclear systems, probabilistic modeling, and technical writing, and has solidified my pursuit of a career at a national laboratory.

98 - NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL↗
DOE OSTI2021

Implementation and Evaluation of a Unified Turbulence Parameterization Throughout the Canopy and Roughness Sublayer in Noah‐MP Snow Simulations

Abstract The Noah‐MP land surface model (LSM) relies on the Monin‐Obukhov (M‐O) Similarity Theory (MOST) to calculate land‐atmosphere exchanges of water, energy, and momentum fluxes. However, MOST flux‐profile relationships neglect canopy‐induced turbulence in the roughness sublayer (RSL) and parameterize within‐canopy turbulence in an ad hoc manner. We implement a new physics scheme (M‐O‐RSL) into Noah‐MP that explicitly parameterizes turbulence in RSL. We compare Noah‐MP simulations employing the M‐O‐RSL scheme (M‐O‐RSL simulations) and the default M‐O scheme (M‐O simulations) against observations obtained from 647 Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) stations and two AmeriFlux stations in the western United States. M‐O‐RSL simulations of snow water equivalent (SWE) outperform M‐O simulations over 64% and 69% of SNOTEL sites in terms of root‐mean‐square‐error (RMSE) and correlation, respectively. The largest improvements in skill for M‐O‐RSL occur over closed shrubland sites, and the largest degradations in skill occur over deciduous broadleaf forest sites. Differences between M‐O and M‐O‐RSL simulated snowpack are primarily attributable to differences in aerodynamic conductance for heat underneath the canopy top, which modulates sensible heat flux. Differences between M‐O and M‐O‐RSL within‐canopy and below‐canopy sensible heat fluxes affect the amount of heat transported into snowpack and hence change snowmelt when temperatures are close to or above the melting point. The surface energy budget analysis over two AmeriFlux stations shows that differences between M‐O and M‐O‐RSL simulations can be smaller than other model biases (e.g., surface albedo). We intend for the M‐O‐RSL physics scheme to improve performance and uncertainty estimates in weather and hydrological applications that rely on Noah‐MP.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multi-Fidelity Scheme for Accelerating 4D Finite Element Analysis for Mircoreactors

Next-generation microreactors are currently being designed to be operated terrestrial and extraterrestrial for remote surface power production. These systems will provide an alternative source of carbon-free energy that is versatile and can be utilized for various applications. These applications of microreactors have prompted the usage of high-fidelity unstructured finite element (FE) based approaches to provide time-dependent solutions for multiple physics fields. Computing these high-fidelity (4-D) solutions for multiple design iterations, physics fields, and transient events requires an immense computational cost. These high-fidelity solutions are computational expensive and the cost can be reduced through the implementation of less accurate low-fidelity solutions. Unlike the current fleet of commercial nuclear reactors, these next-gen systems present challenges due to the material and physical limitations required. Due to these constraints, the brute force technique of parameterizing important system characteristics determines whether a design meets the project objective. A system such as a nuclear reactor could have thousands of design parameters that affect system performance. In order to analyze the entire parameter space of such a complex system would require millions of CPU hours and countless design iterations. This costly approach is not practical due to regulatory and budget limitations. In this proposal, an approach that utilizes hybrid high-fidelity and low-fidelity FE models to reduce the computational cost of evaluating these applications in 4-D will be presented. The accuracy of the high-fidelity model and the computational efficiency of the low-fidelity model are taken advantage of to produce a solution that closely resembles the full order high-fidelity solution. By utilizing an unconverged coarse FE mesh, operation limits such as temperature, structural loading, etc., can be evaluated in an accelerated fashion and then can be spatially interpolated onto a finer mesh. The resulting error arising from the coarse mesh can be mitigated with a discrepancy function that actively quantifies and corrects the error in the coarse solution. This discrepancy function can be periodically updated with high-fidelity calculations across the temporal domain thus requiring less iterations on the fine mesh. As a result, the computational cost can be reduced for the evaluation and design iteration of microreactors. The proposal for this research contains three sections: Section 2 provides a literature review, Section 3 outlines the methodology for the proposed multi-fidelity scheme, and Section 4 displays preliminary results of the proposed research.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Comparison of methods to estimate aerosol effective radiative forcings in climate models

Abstract. Uncertainty in the effective radiative forcing (ERF) of climate primarily arises from the unknown contribution of aerosols, which impact radiative fluxes directly and through modifying cloud properties. Climate model simulations with fixed sea surface temperatures but perturbed atmospheric aerosol loadings allow for an estimate of how strongly the planet's radiative energy budget has been perturbed by the increase in aerosols since pre-industrial times. The approximate partial radiative perturbation (APRP) technique further decomposes the contributions to the direct forcing due to aerosol scattering and absorption and to the indirect forcing due to aerosol-induced changes in cloud scattering, amount, and absorption, as well as the effects of aerosols on surface albedo. Here we evaluate previously published APRP-derived estimates of aerosol effective radiative forcings from these simulations conducted in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and find that they are biased as a result of two large coding errors that – in most cases – fortuitously compensate. The most notable exception is the direct radiative forcing from absorbing aerosols, which is more than 40 % larger averaged across CMIP6 models in the present study. Correcting these biases eliminates the residuals and leads to better agreement with benchmark estimates derived from double calls to the radiation code. The APRP method – when properly implemented – remains a highly accurate and efficient technique for diagnosing aerosol ERF in cases where double radiation calls are not available, and in all cases it provides quantification of the individual contributors to the ERF that are highly useful but not otherwise available.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Ten Years of VIIRS Land Surface Temperature Product Validation

The Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) Land Surface Temperature (LST) has been operationally produced for a decade since the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (SNPP) launched in October 2011. A comprehensive evaluation of its accuracy and precision will be helpful for product users in climate studies and atmospheric models. In this study, the VIIRS LST is validated with ground observations from multiple high-quality radiation networks, including six stations from the Surface Radiation budget (SURFRAD) network, two stations from the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN), and 13 stations from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) network, to evaluate its performance over various land-cover types. The VNP21A1 LST was validated against the same ground observations as a reference. The results yield a close agreement between the SNPP VIIRS LST and ground LSTs with a bias of -0.4 K and a RMSE of 1.96 K over six SURFRAD sites; a bias of -0.2 K and a RMSE of 1.93 K over two BSRN sites; and a bias of -0.1 K and a RMSE of 1.7 K over the 13 ARM sites. The time series of the LST errors over individual sites indicate seasonal cycles. The data anomaly over the BSRN site in Cabauw and the SURFRAD site in Desert Rock is revealed and discussed in this study. In addition, a method using Landsat-8 data is applied to quantify the heterogeneity level of each ground station and the results provide promising insights. The validation results demonstrate the maturity of the JPSS VIIRS LST products and their readiness for various application studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Impact of Lateral Flow on Surface Water and Energy Budgets over the Southern Great Plains – A Modeling Study

As we see the horizontal grid spacing decrease, treatment of hydrologic processes in land surface models, such as the lateral flow of surface and subsurface flow, need to be explicitly represented. Unlike previous studies that mainly focused on the mountainous regions, in this study the offline WRF-Hydro model is employed to study the impact of lateral flow on soil moisture and energy fluxes over the relatively flat southern Great Plains (SGP). The vast amount of measurements over the SGP provide an unique opportunity to assess the model behavior. In addition, newly developed land surface properties and input forcing are ingested into the model, in an attempt to reduce uncertainties associated with the initial and boundary forcing and help to identify model deficiencies. Our results show that the more realistic inputs (parameters, soil types, forcing) lead to larger underestimation of latent heat flux and dry bias, indicating the existence of model structural uncertainty (embedded errors) in WRF-Hydro that need to be characterized to inform future model development efforts. Including lateral flow processes partly mitigates the model deficiencies in representing hydrologic processes and alleviates the dry bias. In particular, both surface and subsurface lateral flow increase soil moisture mainly over the lower elevations, except that subsurface flow also affects soil moisture over steeper terrains. Additional simulations are performed to assess the effect of routing resolution on model results. When LSM resolution is high, noticeable differences in soil moisture are produced between different routing resolutions especially over steep terrain. Whereas when LSM resolution is coarse, differences between routing resolutions become negligible, especially over flat terrain.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Characterization of oceanic post-cold frontal clouds and their model representation. Final report

Low-level clouds are ubiquitous over the oceans, and their impact on the Earth’ radiative budget is important. However, general circulation models (GCMs) that are used to represent our climate and its evolution still experience problems to represent their correct amount and radiative impact. In the extratropical latitudes (~30-60 N/S), cloud properties are strongly modulated by the occurrence of anti-cyclones (high pressure systems) and cyclones (low pressure systems). While deep clouds dominate in cyclones near the center and along the cold and warm fronts, low-level clouds populate the colder regions of the cyclones, and more specifically the region in the wake of the cold fronts, the post-cold frontal region (PCF). The GCMs mentioned above were found to underestimate the amount of these PCF clouds, and this caused errors in their representation of the amount of solar radiation at the surface of the southern hemisphere oceans, causing an excess in absorption and errors in long-term predictions. To better understand which processes are ill-represented in the GCMs to cause such issues, we used ground-based observations from the Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) ARM site and a high resolution regional model (called WRF) to examine the properties of PCF clouds. With the WRF model, we simulated the passage of a cold front at the ENA site using theoretically distinct representations of convection and the physics of the boundary layer. While these physical representations had little impact on the timing, structure and circulation of the cold front, we found a high sensitivity to how the large scale information was fed into the model. Errors rapidly developed if the incoming flow information was injected too far from the site, but 1000 km was found to be an optimal distance between the outer boundary and the ENA site for a realistic cold front passage. With this model, we then conducted a series of experiment where convection and boundary layer schemes were changed, and revealed that 1) the clouds were more sensitive to the convection than boundary layer schemes and 2) the interaction between the two has a large impact. Furthermore, changing the representation of the physics in the model had greater impacts on PCF clouds than changing the initial conditions. As large-scale models increase their spatial resolution, convection will eventually be resolved but it remains that their representation of the physics of the boundary layer will matter for the correct representation of shallow (low-level) clouds. Observations were used to find which large-scale information had a clear relationship with PCF cloud and precipitation properties, in view of helping with GCM parameterizations and evaluation. Both lower troposphere stability and surface forcing were found to be important for PCF clouds that experience more vigorous dynamics than their tropical or subtropical counterparts. For cloud base and top heights, a simple measure of the change in potential temperature between the surface and the 800 hPa was found to be a good predictor. This relationship was found to hold as well when using data from campaigns recently conducted in the southern ocean south of Tasmania. A recent GCM was found to succeed in representing similar relations. For cloud depth, water content, and different characteristics of precipitation both the temperature contrast between the surface and near-air and the near-surface wind speed had a strong relationship. To summarize, through observational constraints and regional model experiments, the project has provided guidance to evaluate GCMs and tools to improve their representation of low-level clouds in the extratropics. It has also highlighted differences in behavior between these clouds and those typically found in the subtropics, thus opening new avenues of research for shallow clouds in general.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Ensemble Estimation of Historical Evapotranspiration for the Conterminous U.S.

Abstract Evapotranspiration (ET) is the largest component of the water budget, accounting for the majority of the water available from precipitation. ET is challenging to quantify because of the uncertainties associated with the many ET equations currently in use, and because observations of ET are uncertain and sparse. In this study, we combine information provided by available ET data and equations to produce a new monthly data set for ET for the conterminous U.S. (CONUS). These maps are produced from 1895 to 2018 at an 800 m spatial scale, marking a finer resolution than currently available products over this time period. In our approach, the relative performance of a suite of ET equations is assessed using water balance, flux tower, and remotely sensed ET estimates. At the observation locations, we use error distributions to quantify relative weights for the equations and use these in a modified Bayesian model averaging weighted ensemble approach. The relative weights are spatially generalized using a random forest regression, which is applied to wall‐to‐wall explanatory variable maps to generate CONUS‐wide relative weight maps and ensemble estimates. We assess the performance of the ensemble using a reserved subset of the observations and compare this performance against other national‐scale map products for historical to modern ET. The ensemble ET maps are shown to provide an improved accuracy over the alternative comparison products. These ET maps could be useful for a variety of hydrologic modeling and assessment applications that benefit from a long record, such as the study of periods of water scarcity through time.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗