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Annual Technology Baseline: The 2022 Electricity Update

Consistent cost and performance data for various electricity generation technologies can be difficult to find and may change frequently for certain technologies. With the Annual Technology Baseline (ATB), the National Renewable Energy Laboratory annually provides an organized and centralized set of such cost and performance data. The ATB uses the best information from the Department of Energy national laboratories' renewable energy analysts. The ATB has been reviewed by experts and it includes the following electricity generation and storage technologies: land-based wind, offshore wind, distributed wind, utility-scale solar photovoltaics (PV), commercial-scale solar PV, residential-scale solar PV, concentrating solar power, geothermal power, hydropower, utility-scale battery storage, commercial battery storage, residential battery storage, pumped storage hydropower, coal, and natural gas. EIA data for nuclear and conventional biopower are included for reference. This webinar presentation introduces the 2022 update to the ATB Electricity data and documentation.

capacity factor↗

Annual Technology Baseline: The 2023 Electricity Update

Consistent cost and performance data for various electricity generation technologies can be difficult to find and may change frequently for certain technologies. With the Annual Technology Baseline (ATB), the National Renewable Energy Laboratory annually provides an organized and centralized set of such cost and performance data. The ATB uses the best information from the Department of Energy national laboratories' renewable energy analysts. The ATB has been reviewed by experts and it includes the following electricity generation and storage technologies: land-based wind, offshore wind, distributed wind, utility-scale solar photovoltaics (PV), commercial-scale solar PV, residential-scale solar PV, concentrating solar power, geothermal power, hydropower, utility-scale battery storage, commercial battery storage, residential battery storage, pumped storage hydropower, coal, and natural gas. EIA data for nuclear and conventional biopower are included for reference. This webinar presentation introduces the 2023 update to the ATB Electricity data and documentation.

capacity factor↗

The value of fusion energy to a decarbonized United States electric grid

Fusion could be a part of future decarbonized electricity systems, but it will need to compete with other technologies. In particular, pulsed tokamak plants have a unique operational mode, and evaluating which characteristics make them economically competitive can help select between design pathways. Using a capacity expansion and operations model, here we determined cost thresholds for pulsed tokamaks to reach a range of penetration levels in a future decarbonized US Eastern Interconnection. The required capital cost to reach a fusion capacity of 100 GW varied from $2,700 to $7,500 kW -1 , and the equilibrium penetration increases rapidly with decreasing cost. The value per unit power capacity depends on the variable operational cost and on the cost of its competition, particularly fission, much more than on the pulse cycle parameters. These findings can therefore provide initial cost targets for fusion more generally in the United States.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Economically Viable Intermediate to Long Duration Hydrogen Energy Storage Solutions for Fossil Fueled Assets

This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by the Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management of U.S. Department of Energy under Funding Opportunity Announcement Number DE-FOA-0002332 “Energy Storage for Fossil Power Generation”. The work aimed to explore and advance an innovative hydrogen energy storage system – the synergistically integrated hydrogen energy storage system (SIHES) – that has the following characteristics: • Compatible with existing or new coal and gas fuel electricity generation units, • best suited for intermediate to long duration energy storage, from 12 hours to weeks even months, and • capable of storing energy at the utility scale – hundreds of MWh to GWh energy storage with power output level in tens to hundreds of MW. Preliminary front-end engineering design (Pre-FEED) studies was carried out to develop and refine a site-specific SIHES as peaking power generation units (so named as HyPeaker) as the first market entry point, to demonstrate both the technical feasibility and the economic viability to integrate the HyPeaker “within the fence” of a fossil power plant. This specific site was TVA’s Johnsonville Combustion Turbine Plant. The HyPeaker was designed and engineered to integrate with a 60MW aeroderivative gas turbine unit already available at TVA’s Johnsonville site. This site-specific HyPeaker consists of an alkaline electrolyzer to produce hydrogen from CO 2 free electricity sources, an innovative low-cost high-pressure hydrogen storage system (Big-Ton) and the aero gas turbine to generate electricity using blend of hydrogen and natural gas. A holistic system level technoeconomic analysis tool specific to HyPeaker was developed to optimize the engineering design of the Johnsonville site-specific HyPeaker for cost and performance. The optimal design and specification of the Johnsonville site-specific HyPeaker are the following: • Alkaline electrolyzer: 3MW • Big-Ton storage vessel: 11,000kg H 2 at 3000psi. • 4-stage diaphragm hydrogen compressor: 55kg-H 2 /hr from 150psi to 3000psi. The HyPeaker is designed to provide sufficient hydrogen for 90% continuous operation of the HyPeaker. All major components have design life of 30 years. The capex of HyPeaker is estimated at $\$$7.1M. This included $\$$1.5M for the electrolyzer, $\$$5.6M for the storage vessel and compressor. The cost of aero gas turbine was included as it is already available at the site. Key findings are: • HyPeaker can be designed, manufactured, installed and integrated with the fossil power plants, with sub-systems and components commercially available on the market today, even when it is scaled up to an order of magnitude larger than the one at the Johnsonville site. HyPeaker is a technologically viable solution to cover a wide range of energy storage duration needs, from daily peaking operation to seasonal shifting for fossil fueled assets. • The cost advantage of SCCV based Big-Ton H 2 storage vessel made it possible to “oversize” the H 2 storage subsystem to achieve overall system level cost optimization. The benefits are two-fold. First, it allows to significantly reduce the capacity and cost of electrolyzer by spreading H 2 production over a much longer period of time when the fuel cost for electricity production is low. Second, it allows to balance the hydrogen production and usage shift over weeks to months to meet the peak demands. As such, the capital cost of HyPeaker system using the Big-Ton was less than half of the cost of a system with today’s steel tube based H 2 storage system. The HyPeaker has even better cost advantage Li-ion battery based energy storage system. The estimated capital cost of Li-Ion battery system would be at $\$$38M, under the same projected 20-year electricity generation profile of the Johnsonville site. This is over 5 times more expensive than the HyPeaker system. • Since industry scale energy storage systems do not have 100% energy conversion and storage efficiency, energy storage systems using fossil fuel generated electricity would increase the CO 2 emission. This is particularly the case for HyPeaker due to its low round trip efficiency. Therefore, a more sensible solution would be to the excessive or curtailed electricity from CO 2 emission free sources such as solar farms, wind farms or nuclear power plants, to produce hydrogen, and integrate them with the HyPeaker. Electricity from TVA’s nuclear power plants was used for the Johnsonville HyPeaker. • The economic viability of HyPeaker is expected to be further improved when global supply chains are taken into consideration. For the same Johnsonville site specific HyPeaker, the capex would be reduced to ~$\$$3.6M from ~$\$$7.1M, and the added LCOE is reduced to ~$\$$85/MWh. With the bipartisan Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, the cost of domestically produced HyPeaker sub-systems would be at the level of today’s global suppliers. Since the peaking units generally operate at peak usage period, thereby demanding higher price, the projected $\$$85/MWh LCOE would be within the realm of financial viability for utility operators.

08 HYDROGEN↗

The economics of mining the Martian moons

The costs for extracting and shipping volatiles such as water, carbon, and nitrogen that might be found on Phobos and Deimos are estimated. The costs are compared to the cost of shipping the same volatiles from earth, assuming the use of nuclear powered mining facilities and freighters. Mineral resources and possible products from the Martian moons, possible markets for these products, and the costs of transporting these resources to LEO or GEO or to transportation nodal points are examined. Most of the technology needed to mine the moons has already been developed. The need for extraterrestrial sources of propellants for ion propulsion systems and ways in which the mining of the moons would reduce the cost of space operations near earth are discussed. It is concluded that it would be commercially viable to mine the Martian moons, making a profit of at least a 10 percent return on capital.

Leonard, Raymond S.↗

Technical and economic evaluation of heat transfer fluids for a TES system integrated to an advanced nuclear reactor

The utilization of thermal energy storage technology has emerged as a potential enhancement for nuclear power plants. Although nuclear energy systems possess the ability to adjust their energy output, prolonged variations in production can impact the plant's overall efficiency and economic viability. However, the nuclear industry can capitalize on thermal energy storage to bolster the power plant's economics by leveraging ancillary services and market hedging strategies. Here this research aims to advance the development of thermal energy storage for advanced nuclear reactors by assessing the thermophysical properties of various heat transfer fluids, including FLiNaK, KCl-MgCl 2 , LiCl-KCl, (LiNaK) 2 CO 3 , NaF-ZrF 4 , and KF-ZrF 4 , at temperatures ranging from 500 to 900oC. The assessment is conducted based on thermophysical correlations established in previous studies and employs figures of merit as a metric to evaluate the heat transfer performance of different salt candidates. Additionally, a cost analysis is conducted to provide an idea of the potential cost associated with each salt candidate.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

The Fast Modular Reactor (FMR) - Development Plan of a New 50 MWe Gas-cooled Fast Reactor

General Atomics Electromagnetic Systems (GA-EMS) will be developing a new 50-megawatt electric (MWe) fast modular reactor (FMR), under the Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program (ARDP), Advanced Reactor Concepts 2020 (ARC-20) development pathway, that provides safe, carbon free electricity, capable of incremental capacity additions. A modular design allows it to be factory-built and assembled on-site to keep the cost of capital low, while the dry-cooling facilitates siting to complement renewables in nearly any location. GA-EMS is committed to commercialization of the proposed reactor, with a demonstration by 2030, and deployment by the mid-2030s. The ultimate goal of the design is to develop flexible and dispatchable carbon-free power source for the 2035 US electricity market. The GAEMS- led team will verify that simplified characteristics (e.g., inert helium gas coolant, pellet-loaded fuel rod, installation-free of heat sink requirements, small and passive heat removal systems) of the FMR will result in a safe, maintainable, cost-effective, distributed, nuclear energygenerating station. Three key specific project objectives for the next three years include: Development of the conceptual design of the 50- MWe FMR plant, Achievement of Technology Readiness Level (TRL) 4 for key system and component technologies through in-pile tests, out-of-pile tests, and numerical experiments; and Development of robust techno-economic analysis (TEA) and pre-application licensing approach necessary for timely demonstration and eventual commercialization.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Procedure Parsing: A Method for Parsing Handwritten Documents into Computer-Based Procedures

The nuclear industry is heavily procedure driven, where almost everything has a step-by-step instruction that is expected to be followed in detail. Historically, these procedures were printed on paper copies. Recently, the industry transitioned towards electronic copies (i.e., PDFs on tablets). One major drive for this transition is the introduction of human error and loss of situation awareness when using paper copies. However, electronic copies of documents inherently have the same error traps as their paper cousins. Therefore, there is an increased interest in a way to utilize the information in the step-by-step guidance, but to present it in a dynamic manner that guides the user and adapts to any encountered conditions. Researchers at Idaho National Laboratory propose a flexible, automated method based on document parsing and augmented by natural language processing (NLP) techniques, to address these shortcomings and capitalize on these recent advancements in machine learning. The proposed method provides a cost-effective solution for computer-assisted procedure parsing of hand-written control room procedures, originally authored in Word or PDF formats, into instructions that can be displayed as computer-based procedures (CBP) in a modern graphical user interface. The researchers devised, implemented and demonstrated the Operating Procedure Extender for Novel Systems (OPENS) method in 2020. The key to OPENS is to map the original procedure text into a context-free grammar, tying content to equipment, locations, and other steps, actions, etc. This formal grammar is then used to isolate and define keywords and actions verbs, such as “measure” or “evaluate” and tie them to specific equipment referenced within that step or located in other steps, substeps, actions, subactions and tables throughout the procedure. OPENS generates an abstract syntax tree from the document which it uses to store a copy of this information in the open-standard, machine-readable and human-readable file formats XML and JSON. The XML is useful to preserve the relational aspects of the procedure for referencing tables and branching information so the user can be directed to the next appropriate active step based on the values entered for that step and previous steps. The JSON is useful for storing and exchanging data objects used to track responses to previous steps and state changes in simulated environments. In future iterations, these formats can also be used for storing more detailed information about input during plant operation or simulation. The techniques the researcher developed could further be improved by integration of recent advancements in machine learning. NLP methods could standardize documents, correct for grammatical error, and provide automated semantic validation. The researcher expects that self-supervised techniques applied to collections of natural language instructions could strengthen the model with broader context. All these methods together give us a practical way to automatically extract protocols from documents and user interactions, empowering researchers, procedure writers and nuclear operators while moving the industry forward.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Large-scale terrestrial solar cell power generation cost: A preliminary assessment

A cost study was made to assess the potential of the large-scale use of solar cell power for terrestrial applications. The incentive is the attraction of a zero-pollution source of power for wide-scale use. Unlike many other concepts for low-pollution power generation, even thermal pollution is avoided since only the incident solar flux is utilized. To provide a basis for comparison and a perspective for evaluation, the pertinent technology was treated in two categories: current and optimistic. Factors considered were solar cells, array assembly, power conditioning, site preparation, buildings, maintenance, and operation. The capital investment was assumed to be amortized over 30 years. The useful life of the solar cell array was assumed to be 10 years, and the cases of zero and 50-percent performance deg-radation were considered. Land costs, taxes, and profits were not included in this study because it was found too difficult to provide good generalized estimates of these items. On the basis of the factors considered, it is shown that even for optimistic projections of technology, electric power from large-sclae terrestrial use of solar cells is approximately two to three orders of magnitude more costly than current electric power generation from either fossil or nuclear fuel powerplants. For solar cell power generation to be a viable competitor on a cost basis, technological breakthroughs would be required in both solar cell and array fabrication and in site preparation.

Spakowski, A. E.↗

Baseload Hydrogen Production Using Nuclear and Renewable Energy: A Comparative Analysis

As the global push towards net zero carbon gains momentum, the demand for clean hydrogen is expected to grow rapidly across various sectors, including transportation, industries and electrical grids. To meet this growing hydrogen demand, baseload hydrogen production facilities capable of providing a continuous and reliable supply of hydrogen will be necessary throughout the world. This paper explores the technoeconomic feasibility of establishing baseload electrolytic hydrogen production facilities in the United States, utilizing different clean generation resources. The key criteria include maintaining a consistent supply of clean hydrogen without putting baseload demand stress to already vulnerable power grid. In order to do that, the proposed facilities will host onsite clean power generation and energy storage technologies. The proposed facilities can capitalize on available investment and production incentives and have ability to export excess electricity to the utility at a bulk price. Several scenarios are considered based on the clean energy resources to support the electrolysis process including light water reactors (LWRs) currently evaluating retirement options, wind, solar PVs, and advanced small modular reactors (SMRs). For each scenario, a hypothetical hydrogen production facility is considered in a location in the US where the primary generation resource is at its peak strength. Comparative analysis in this paper reveal that the nuclear power plants are most economically viable for baseload hydrogen production facilities, outperforming renewable-based facilities with significantly lower levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH). Even under best-case scenarios for resource availability, incentives and export prices, renewable-based facilities face challenges due to daily and seasonal generation variability, resulting in large installation sizes and lower capacity factors. Among renewable-based facilities, complementarity hybrids, providing more stable power supply, demonstrate superior economics compared to facilities based on a single renewable technology. While LWR-powered facility can achieve a negative LCOH with incentives, SMR-powered facilities can provide economic hydrogen supply with LCOH below $1/kg with high temperature electrolysis option. The analysis in this paper underscores the pivotal role of nuclear energy in the future hydrogen economy.

08 - HYDROGEN↗

STOCHASTIC OPTIMIZATION FOR LONG TERM CAPITAL STRUCTURES, SYSTEMS, AND COMPONENTS REFURBISHMENT AND REPLACEMENT

As commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs) pursue extended plant operations in the form of Second License Renewals (SLRs), opportunities exist for these plants to provide capital investments to ensure long-term, safe, and economic performance. Several utilities have already announced their intention to pursue extended operations for one or more of their NPPs via SLR2. The goal of this research is to develop a riskinformed approach to evaluate and prioritize plant capital investments made in preparation for, and during the period of, extended plant operations to support decisions in NPP operations. In order to prioritize project selection via a riskinformed approach we developed a single decision-making tool that integrates safety/reliability, cost, and stochastic optimization models to provide users with data analysis capabilities to more cost effectively manage plant assets. Both stochastic analysis methods—such as Monte Carlo-based sampling strategies—and multi-stage stochastic optimization strategies are employed to provide priority lists to decisionmakers in support of risk-informed decisions. We applied the proposed method to a trial application of projected replacement/refurbishment expenditures for plant capital assets (i.e., Structures, Systems, and Components [SSCs]). The objective is to optimize the SSC replacement/refurbishment schedule in terms of economic constraints, data uncertainties, and SSC reliability data, as well to generate a priority list for maximizing returns on investment.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Relation of the lunar power system to the SEI program and to landers

The people of Earth will need more than 20,000 billion watts (GWe) of electric power by 2050 for a high level of prosperity. Power needs in the 22nd Century could exceed 100,000 GWe. By 2100 the total quantity of thermal energy used could fully deplete the known inventory (10(exp 7) GWt-Y) of all non-renewable sources on Earth except for deuterium and hydrogen for use in proposed fusion reactors. The labor, capital, and mass of power plants required to produce 1 GWe-Y of energy from present-day power plants is summarized. Fossil and nuclear plants respectively consume 80 to 190 M$ and 12 to 48 M$ of fuel per GWe-Y. The Lunar Power System (LPS) uses solar power bases on the moon to beam electric power to Earth. The LPS in the figure supplies load-following power to rectennas on Earth. Additional solar power conversion units are located across the lunar limb from their respective Earthward transmitting stations. LPS can be augmented by mirrors in polar orbit about the moon. The construction of rectennas on Earth determines the base cost (0.001s$/kWe-H) of LPS power. A manned International Lunar Base (ILB) can accelerate the development of LPS by providing the initial transportation and habitation facilities and base operations. ILB can greatly reduce up front costs and risks by emplacing a moderate scale LPS (1-100 GWe). LPS can accelerate the development of the ILB by providing greater funding than is reasonable to expect for purely scientific research. An international ILB/LPS program can foster world trust and prosperity.

Criswell, David R.↗

Magnetic Flux Compression Concept for Nuclear Pulse Propulsion and Power

The desire for fast, efficient interplanetary transport requires propulsion systems having short acceleration times and very high specific impulse attributes. Unfortunately, most highly efficient propulsion systems which are within the capabilities of present day technologies are either very heavy or yield very low impulse such that the acceleration time to final velocity is too long to be of lasting interest, One exception, the nuclear thermal thruster, could achieve the desired acceleration but it would require inordinately large mass ratios to reach the range of desired final velocities. An alternative approach, among several competing concepts that are beyond our modern technical capabilities, is a pulsed thermonuclear device utilizing microfusion detonations. In this paper, we examine the feasibility of an innovative magnetic flux compression concept for utilizing microfusion detonations, assuming that such low yield nuclear bursts can be realized in practice. In this concept, a magnetic field is compressed between an expanding detonation driven diamagnetic plasma and a stationary structure formed from a high temperature superconductor (HTSC). In general, we are interested in accomplishing two important functions: (1) collimation of a hot diamagnetic plasma for direct thrust production; and (2) pulse power generation for dense plasma ignition. For the purposes of this research, it is assumed that rnicrofusion detonation technology may become available within a few decades, and that this approach could capitalize on recent advances in inertial confinement fusion ICF) technologies including magnetized target concepts and antimatter initiated nuclear detonations. The charged particle expansion velocity in these detonations can be on the order of 10 (exp 6)- 10 (exp 7) meters per second, and, if effectively collimated by a magnetic nozzle, can yield the Isp and the acceleration levels needed for practical interplanetary spaceflight. The ability to ignite pure fusion micro-bursts with reasonable levels of input energy is an equally challenging scientific problem. It remains to be seen, however, whether an effective ignition driver can be developed which meets the requirements for practical spaceflight application (namely high power density, compactness, low weight, and low cost). In this paper, system level performance and design issues are examined including generator performance, magnetic flux compression processes, magnetic diffusion processes, high temperature superconductor (HTSC) material properties, plasmadynamic processes, detonation plasma expansion processes, magnetohydrodynamic instabilities, magnetic nozzle performance, and thrust production performance. Representative generator performance calculations based on a simplified skin layer formulation are presented as well as the results of exploratory small-scale laboratory experiments on magnetic flux diffusion in HTSC materials. In addition, planned follow-on scientific feasibility experiments are described which utilize high explosive detonations and high energy gas discharges to simulate the plasma conditions associated with thermonuclear micro-detonations.

Litchford, Ronald J.↗

Tokamak Energy’s pre-concept design for a fusion power plant: an overview of ST-E1

Climate change and rapidly rising energy demand, driven in part by artificial intelligence and data-centre growth, create an urgent need for stable, low-carbon, and abundant power. Fusion is a promising long-term solution, yet its commercialisation faces a fundamental paradox in today’s investment environment: pilot plants are essential to de-risk physics, engineering, and operations, but their limited lifetime energy output and high upfront costs make them difficult to finance. This paper presents Tokamak Energy’s response: ST-E1, a pre-concept design for a low-aspect-ratio tokamak power plant engineered specifically to overcome this challenge. ST-E1 is designed from the outset for phased operation—pilot and commercial phases, with an upgrade phase in between—with emphasis on commercial viability, maintainability, nuclear engineering, modularity, and upgradability. A key design principle is the deliberate separation of long-lived assets, such as the magnet cage and vacuum vessel, from replaceable in-vessel systems. This provides an attractive and credible investment approach to generate operational data and de-risk key technologies while preserving most capital-intensive assets for later commercial phases. The architecture supports continuous optimisation toward high net electric power (targeting 800–1000 MW net electric), a normalised capital expenditure of $\$$ 12–14k/kW of net electric power, and high availability (targeting > 80%). A tokamak core with a 5 m major radius, aspect ratio of 2.3, and on-plasma axis toroidal field of 5.25 T was selected to meet these objectives. This paper summarises the ST-E1 design philosophy, principal features, and development methodology. It introduces a Focus Collection of 11 papers detailing the pre-concept design of the entire tokamak and corresponding plant.

ST-E1↗

An Integrated Feasibility Study of Reservoir Thermal Energy Storage (RTES) in Portland, OR, USA

In regions with long cold overcast winters and sunny summers, Deep Direct-Use (DDU) can be coupled with Reservoir Thermal Energy Storage (RTES) technology to take advantage of pre-existing subsurface permeability to save summer heat for later use during cold seasons. Many aquifers worldwide are underlain by permeable regions (reservoirs) containing brackish or saline groundwater that has limited beneficial use due to poor water quality. We investigate the utility of these relatively deep, slow flowing reservoirs for RTES by conducting an integrated feasibility study in the Portland Basin, Oregon, USA, developing methods and obtaining results that can be widely applied to RTES systems elsewhere. As a case study, we have conducted an economic and social cost-benefit analysis for the Oregon Health and Science University (OHSU), a teaching hospital that is recognized as critical infrastructure in the Portland Metropolitan Area. Our investigation covers key factors that influence feasibility including 1) the geologic framework, 2) heat and fluid flow modeling, 3) capital and maintenance costs, 4) the regulatory framework, and 5) operational risks. By pairing a model of building seasonal heat demand with an integrated model of RTES resource supply, we determine that the most important factors that influence RTES efficacy in the study area are operational schedule, well spacing, the amount of summer heat stored (in our model, a function of solar array size), and longevity of the system. Generally, heat recovery efficiency increases as the reservoir and surrounding rocks warm, making RTES more economical with time. Selecting a base-case scenario, we estimate a levelized cost of heat (LCOH) to compare with other sources of heating available to OHSU and find that it is comparable to unsubsidized solar and nuclear, but more expensive than natural gas. Additional benefits of RTES include energy resiliency in the event that conventional energy supplies are disrupted (e.g., natural disaster) and a reduction in fossil fuel consumption resulting in a smaller carbon footprint. Key risks include reservoir heterogeneity and a possible reduction in permeability through time due to scaling (mineral precipitation). Lastly, a map of thermal energy storage capacity for the Portland Basin yields a total of 43,400 GWh, suggesting tremendous potential for RTES in the Portland Metropolitan Area.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Distributed power generation via gasification of biomass and municipal solid waste: A review

The access to electricity has increased worldwide, growing from 60 million additional consumers per year in 2000-2012 to 100 million per year in 2012-2016. Despite this growth, approximately 675 million people will still lack access to electricity in 2030, indicating that electricity demand will continue to increase. Unfortunately, traditional large fossil power technologies based on coal, oil and natural gas lead to a major concern in tackling worldwide carbon dioxide emissions, and nuclear power remains unpopular due to public safety concerns. Distributed power generation utilizing CO 2 -neutral sources, such as gasification of biomass and municipal solid wastes (MSW), can play an important role in meeting the world energy demand in a sustainable way. Furthermore, this review focuses on the recent technology developments on seven power generation technologies (i.e. internal combustion engine, gas turbine, micro gas turbine, steam turbine, Stirling engine, organic rankine cycle generator, and fuel cell) suitable for distributed power applications with capability of independent operation using syngas derived from gasification of biomass and MSW. Technology selection guidelines is discussed based on criteria, including hardware modification required, size inflexibility, sensitivity to syngas contaminants, operational uncertainty, efficiency, lifetime, fast ramp up/down capability, controls and capital cost. Major challenges facing further development and commercialization of these power generation technologies are discussed.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Stochastic Analysis for Long Term Capital Structures, Systems, and Components Refurbishment and Replacement

As commercial Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) pursue extended plant operation in the form of Second License Renewal (SLR), opportunities exist for these plants to provide capital investments to ensure long-term safe and economic performance. At the current time, several utilities have announced an intention to pursue extended operation for one or more of their NPPs via SLR . The goal of this research is to develop a risk-informed approach to evaluate and prioritize plant capital investments made in preparation for, and during the period of, extended plant operations to support decisions for NPP operations. Since the capital investments are influenced by various factors, such as markets, safety and regulatory, the decision-making process of NPP operations should take into account relevant factors for balancing risks, costs and profits. The traditional method of capital budgeting is based on the priority list of candidate projects using economic measures such as benefit-investment ratio, net present value (NPV) and internal rate of return. In the literatures, the problem of capital budgeting or the variant can be represented by an appropriate knapsack problem. The knapsack approach to capital budgeting takes as input as investment, along with the cost and profit of each project. The objective of capital budgeting is to find the combination of the binary decisions for every investment such that the overall profit is as large as possible. The output is a collection of projects to be carried out, and we refer this selected collection of projects as a project portfolio. One limitation of traditional optimization models for capital budgeting is that they do not account for risk/uncertainty in profit and cost streams associated with individual projects, they do not account for risk in resource availability in future years [1,2,3]. Projects can incur cost over-runs, especially when projects are large, performed infrequently, and when there is risk regarding technical viability, external contractors, and/or suppliers of requisite parts and materials. Occasionally, projects are performed ahead of schedule and with cost savings. Planned budgets for capital improvements can be cut and key personnel may be lost. Or, there may be surprise windfalls in budgets for maintenance activities due to decreased costs for “unplanned” maintenance. In these cases, how should we resolve capital budgeting when we have risk forecasts for costs, profits and budgets? One approach we proposed in this summary is to re-solve the optimization models based on assumed statistical distributions of given parameters. If these distributions were not available, a two-stage stochastic optimization approach can be used to provide priority lists to decision-makers to support better risk-informed decisions [4, 5]. In this summary, we will only focus on the first approach.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Techno-Economic Analysis of Repurposing Natural Gas Transmission Pipeline Networks to Accommodate Hydrogen Blends

Blending hydrogen into natural gas infrastructure could supplement natural gas supply and increase resilience for applications such as ammonia production, peaking and load-following power plants, and heating. The United States has an extensive network of natural gas pipelines, but the feasibility of employing this infrastructure to transport hydrogen is unclear. We analyze the costs associated with repurposing three distinct natural gas transmission pipelines in different locations within the United States to carry blends of hydrogen up to 100% via three different pipeline network modification methods and compare against the cost of building a new dedicated hydrogen pipeline. We conduct a sensitivity analysis on the hoop stress limit of the existing pipe, techno-economic parameters, emissions, and relative capacity. The results show that the capital costs required to upgrade a pipeline can vary from tens of millions to billions of dollars depending on the length and capacity of the existing pipeline section, whether the existing pipeline already operates at or below its maximum allowable operating pressure, whether future demand is expected to increase or decrease, the network modification method selected, and pipe material costs. The delivered cost of energy to end users is impacted less by the levelized cost of transporting hydrogen blends than by the cost of the natural gas and hydrogen fuels being transported. The emissions impact of blending hydrogen into natural gas transmission networks scales proportionally with the amount of energy displaced with low-emission hydrogen (such as from natural gas with carbon capture and sequestration or electrolysis powered by nuclear, renewable, or geothermal electricity), therefore low blend ratios (e.g., < 20% vol. hydrogen) will result in low emissions impacts. Factors such as permitting and right-of-way costs, the proximity of the pipeline to hydrogen demand and production, and the compatibility of and/or retrofitting costs of end-use gas-fueled technologies will likely be greater drivers in determining whether converting a particular natural gas pipeline to carry hydrogen makes economic sense.

08 HYDROGEN↗