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NASA NTRS1998

Analysis of Potential Alternatives to Reduce NASA's Cost of Human Access to Space

The purpose of this report is to analyze NASA's potential options for significantly reducing the cost of human access to space. The opinions expressed in this report are based on Hawthorne, Krauss & Associates' ("HKA") interaction with NASA and several of its key contractors over the past nine months. This report is not intended to be an exhaustive quantitative analysis of the various options available to NASA. Instead, its purpose is to outline key decision-related issues that the agency should consider prior to making a decision as to which option to pursue. This report attempts to bring a private-sector perspective to bear on the issue of reducing the cost of human access to space. HKA believes that the key to the NASA's success in reducing those costs over the long-term is the involvement of the private-sector incentives and disciplines--which is achieved only through the assumption of risk by the private sector, not through a traditional contractor relationship--is essential to achieve significant long-term cost reductions.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2002

Operations Analysis of Space Shuttle System

The space science program at NASA since 1950's has gone through stages of development and implementation in rocketry and scientific advancement. It has become the nation's largest scientific institution of research and innovation for space exploration and military research, and overall a pride of the nation at an exorbitant cost. After placing man on moon, space shuttle program at NASA is an on-going project with a high success rate at an average cost of about $450m per flight. A future endeavor from both government and private sectors needs to be undertaken for commercialization of this expensive mission. In order to attract private enterprises, it needs to boost up its operations with better technology at lower cost to cope with rapid changes in scientific advancement and economic competition. Thus, a second-generation reusable launch vehicle (2GRLV) will play a major role in future operation of NASA centers. Envisioning this potential way of saving the program by reducing the cost, NASA is currently managing an innovative program called the Space Launch Initiative (SLI) to develop key technologies that will support the development of second-generation reusable launch vehicles (RLV) which will be more economical and safer and reliable than the existing space shuttle system. The selection of which technologies to fund for further development is being based on their likelihood to contribute to providing cost reduction or safety improvements. It is envisioned that in the 2006 timeframe, NASA will make a decision as to whether or not to commit to the replacement of the current space shuttle system with a new RLV. The decision to proceed with a new RLV will be partly based on the likelihood that the new system will be better than the existing space shuttle. Government and private entrepreneurs are currently considering four different types of RLV projects: commercial programs, government programs, international concepts, and X Prize competitors. NASA has already commissioned a series of X-programs to study the future RLV program. Today, NASA decision makers need analytical tools to help determine which technologies to fund the development of this technology. In the 2006 timeframe, these same decision makers will need analytical tools to evaluate and compare various RLV architectures, including the existing space shuttle so as to make the best decision for whether or not to proceed with the development of a new RLV, and if so, then which one. A study is conducted here to establish ground level knowledge from the historical data and expertise experiences of the field personnel. Such information is compiled in the form of mission statement, goals, space shuttle operations, payloads and cargo constraints, resource constraints, and bottlenecks to the enhancement vector.

Bhaba R. Sarker↗
NASA NTRS2002

An Analysis of U.S. Civil Rotorcraft Accidents by Cost and Injury (1990-1996)

A study of rotorcraft accidents was conducted to identify safety issues and research areas that might lead to a reduction in rotorcraft accidents and fatalities. The primary source of data was summaries of National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) accident reports. From 1990 to 1996, the NTSB documented 1396 civil rotorcraft accidents in the United States in which 491 people were killed. The rotorcraft data were compared to airline and general aviation data to determine the relative safety of rotorcraft compared to other segments of the aviation industry. In depth analysis of the rotorcraft data addressed demographics, mission, and operational factors. Rotorcraft were found to have an accident rate about ten times that of commercial airliners and about the same as that of general aviation. The likelihood that an accident would be fatal was about equal for all three classes of operation. The most dramatic division in rotorcraft accidents is between flights flown by private pilots versus professional pilots. Private pilots, flying low cost aircraft in benign environments, have accidents that are due, in large part, to their own errors. Professional pilots, in contrast, are more likely to have accidents that are a result of exacting missions or use of specialized equipment. For both groups judgement error is more likely to lead to a fatal accident than are other types of causes. Several approaches to improving the rotorcraft accident rate are recommended. These mostly address improvement in the training of new pilots and improving the safety awareness of private pilots.

Iseler, Laura↗
NASA NTRS2003

Providing Effective Access to Shared Resources: A COIN Approach

Managers of systems of shared resources typically have many separate goals. Examples are efficient utilization of the resources among its users and ensuring no user's satisfaction in the system falls below a preset minimal level. Since such goals will usually conflict with one another, either implicitly or explicitly the manager must determine the relative importance of the goals, encapsulating that into an overall utility function rating the possible behaviors of the entire system. Here we demonstrate a distributed, robust, and adaptive way to optimize that overall function. Our approach is to interpose adaptive agents between each user and the system, where each such agent is working to maximize its own private utility function. In turn, each such agent's function should be both relatively easy for the agent to learn to optimize, and 'aligned' with the overall utility function of the system manager - an overall function that is based on but in general different from the satisfaction functions of the individual users. To ensure this we enhance the COllective INtelligence (COIN) framework to incorporate user satisfaction functions in the overall utility function of the system manager and accordingly in the associated private utility functions assigned to the users agents. We present experimental evaluations of different COIN-based private utility functions and demonstrate that those COIN-based functions outperform some natural alternatives.

Airiau, Stephane↗
NASA NTRS2004

Providing Effective Access to Shared Resources: A COIN Approach

Managers of systems of shared resources typically have many separate goals. Examples are efficient utilization of the resources among its users and ensuring no user s satisfaction in the system falls below a preset minimal level. Since such goals will usually conflict with one another, either implicitly or explicitly the manager must determine the relative importance of the goals, encapsulating that into an overall utility function rating the possible behaviors of the entire system. Here we demonstrate a distributed, robust, and adaptive way to optimize that overall function. Our approach is to interpose adaptive agents between each user and the system, where each such agent is working to maximize its own private utility function. In turn, each such agent's function should be both relatively easy for the agent to learn to optimize, and "aligned" with the overall utility function of the system manager - an overall function that is based on but in general different from the satisfaction functions of the individual users. To ensure this we enhance the Collective INtelligence (COIN) framework to incorporate user satisfaction functions in the overall utility function of the system manager and accordingly in the associated private utility functions assigned to the users agents. We present experimental evaluations of different COIN-based private utility functions and demonstrate that those COIN-based functions outperform some natural alternatives.

Airiau, Stephane↗
NASA NTRS2003

Collective Intelligence

Many systems of self-interested agents have an associated performance criterion that rates the dynamic behavior of the overall system. This chapter presents an introduction to the science of such systems. Formally, collectives are defined as any system having the following two characteristics: First, the system must contain one or more agents each of which we view as trying to maximize an associated private utility; second, the system must have an associated world utility function that rates the possible behaviors of that overall system. In practice, collectives are often very large, distributed, and support little, if any, centralized communication and control, although those characteristics are not part of their formal definition. A naturally occurring example of a collective is a human economy. One can identify the agents and their private utilities as the human individuals in the economy and the associated personal rewards they are each trying to maximize. One could then identify the world utility as the time average of the gross domestic product. ("World utility" per se is not a construction internal to a human economy, but rather something defined from the outside.) To achieve high world utility it is necessary to avoid having the agents work at cross-purposes lest phenomena like liquidity traps or the Tragedy of the Commons (TOC) occur, in which agents' individually pursuing their private utilities lowers world utility. The obvious way to avoid such phenomena is by modifying the agents utility functions to be "aligned" with the world utility. This can be done via punitive legislation. A real-world example of an attempt to do this was the creation of antitrust regulations designed to prevent monopolistic practices.

Wolpert, David H.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Exploring the Unknown

One of the most important developments of the twentieth century has been the movement of humanity into space with machines and people. The extension of human activity into outer space has been accompanied by a high degree of self-awareness of its historical significance. Because most of the activity in outer space was carried out under government sponsorship, it was accompanied by the documentary record required of public institutions, and there has been a spate of official and privately written histories of most major aspects of space achievement to date. When top leaders considered what course of action to pursue in space, their deliberations and decisions often were carefully put on the record. There is, accordingly, no lack of material for those who aspire to understand the origins and evolution of U.S. space policies and programs.This reality forms the rationale for this series. Precisely because there is so much historical material available on space matters, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) decided in 1988 that it would be extremely useful to have easily available to scholars and the interested public a selective collection of many of the seminal documents related to the evolution of the U.S. civilian space program. While recognizing that much space activity has taken place under the sponsorship of the Department of Defense and other national security organizations, the U.S. private sector, and in other countries around the world, NASA felt that there would be lasting value in a collection of documentary material primarily focused on the evolution of the U.S. government s civilian space program, most of which has been carried out since 1958 under the Agency s auspices. As a result, the NASA History Office contracted with the Space Policy Institute of George Washington University's Elliott School of International Affairs to prepare such a collection. This is the sixth volume in the documentary history series; two additional ones containing documents and introductory essays related to human space flight, including microgravity research in Earth orbit, will follow. The documents collected during this research project were assembled from a diverse number of both public and private sources. A major repository of primary source materials relative to the history of the civil space program is the NASA Historical Reference Collection of the NASA History Office located at the Agency s Headquarters in Washington, DC.

Logsdon, John M.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Technology Transition a Model for Infusion and Commercialization

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration has as part of its charter the mission of transferring technologies developed for the space program into the private sector for the purpose of affording back to the American people the economical and improved quality of life benefits associated with the technologies developed. In recent years considerable effort has been made to use this program for not only transitioning technologies out of the NASA Mission Directorate Programs, but also to transfer technologies into the Mission Directorate Programs and leverage the impact of government and private sector innovation. The objective of this paper is to outline an approach and the creation of a model that brings together industry, government, and commercialization strategies. When these elements are integrated, the probability of successful technology development, technology infusion into the Mission Programs, and commercialization into the private sector is increased. This model primarily addresses technology readiness levels between TRL 3 and TRL 6. This is typically a gap area known as the valley of death. This gap area is too low for commercial entities to invest heavily and not developed enough for major programs to actively pursue. This model has shown promise for increasing the probably of TRL advancement to an acceptable level for NASA programs and/or commercial entities to afford large investments toward either commercialization or infusion.

McMillan, Vernotto C.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Laser Surveying

NASA technology has produced a laser-aided system for surveying land boundaries in difficult terrain. It does the job more accurately than conventional methods, takes only one-third the time normally required, and is considerably less expensive. In surveying to mark property boundaries, the objective is to establish an accurate heading between two "corner" points. This is conventionally accomplished by erecting a "range pole" at one point and sighting it from the other point through an instrument called a theodolite. But how do you take a heading between two points which are not visible to each other, for instance, when tall trees, hills or other obstacles obstruct the line of sight? That was the problem confronting the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Forest Service. The Forest Service manages 187 million acres of land in 44 states and Puerto Rico. Unfortunately, National Forest System lands are not contiguous but intermingled in complex patterns with privately-owned land. In recent years much of the private land has been undergoing development for purposes ranging from timber harvesting to vacation resorts. There is a need for precise boundary definition so that both private owners and the Forest Service can manage their properties with confidence that they are not trespassing on the other's land.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2005

Encryption for Remote Control via Internet or Intranet

A data-communication protocol has been devised to enable secure, reliable remote control of processes and equipment via a collision-based network, while using minimal bandwidth and computation. The network could be the Internet or an intranet. Control is made secure by use of both a password and a dynamic key, which is sent transparently to a remote user by the controlled computer (that is, the computer, located at the site of the equipment or process to be controlled, that exerts direct control over the process). The protocol functions in the presence of network latency, overcomes errors caused by missed dynamic keys, and defeats attempts by unauthorized remote users to gain control. The protocol is not suitable for real-time control, but is well suited for applications in which control latencies up to about 0.5 second are acceptable. The encryption scheme involves the use of both a dynamic and a private key, without any additional overhead that would degrade performance. The dynamic key is embedded in the equipment- or process-monitor data packets sent out by the controlled computer: in other words, the dynamic key is a subset of the data in each such data packet. The controlled computer maintains a history of the last 3 to 5 data packets for use in decrypting incoming control commands. In addition, the controlled computer records a private key (password) that is given to the remote computer. The encrypted incoming command is permuted by both the dynamic and private key. A person who records the command data in a given packet for hostile purposes cannot use that packet after the public key expires (typically within 3 seconds). Even a person in possession of an unauthorized copy of the command/remote-display software cannot use that software in the absence of the password. The use of a dynamic key embedded in the outgoing data makes the central-processing unit overhead very small. The use of a National Instruments DataSocket(TradeMark) (or equivalent) protocol or the User Datagram Protocol makes it possible to obtain reasonably short response times: Typical response times in event-driven control, using packets sized .300 bytes, are <0.2 second for commands issued from locations anywhere on Earth. The protocol requires that control commands represent absolute values of controlled parameters (e.g., a specified temperature), as distinguished from changes in values of controlled parameters (e.g., a specified increment of temperature). Each command is issued three or more times to ensure delivery in crowded networks. The use of absolute-value commands prevents additional (redundant) commands from causing trouble. Because a remote controlling computer receives "talkback" in the form of data packets from the controlled computer, typically within a time interval < or =1 s, the controlling computer can re-issue a command if network failure has occurred. The controlled computer, the process or equipment that it controls, and any human operator(s) at the site of the controlled equipment or process should be equipped with safety measures to prevent damage to equipment or injury to humans. These features could be a combination of software, external hardware, and intervention by the human operator(s). The protocol is not fail-safe, but by adopting these safety measures as part of the protocol, one makes the protocol a robust means of controlling remote processes and equipment by use of typical office computers via intranets and/or the Internet.

Lineberger, Lewis↗
NASA NTRS2016

Rocket Propulsion (RP) 21 Steering Committee Meeting - NASA Spacecraft Propulsion Update

Lander Tech is three separate but synergistic efforts: Lunar CATALYST (Lunar Cargo Transportation and Landing by Soft Touchdown) Support U.S. industry led robotic lunar lander development via three public-private efforts. Support U.S. industry led robotic lunar lander development via three public-private partnerships. Infuse or transfer landing technologies into these public private partnerships. Advanced Exploration Systems-Automated Propellant Loading (APL) -Integrated Ground Operations. Demonstrate LH2 zero loss storage, loading and transfer operations via testing on a large scale in a relevant launch vehicle servicing environment. (KSC, GRC). Game Changing Technology-20 Kelvin -20 Watt Cryocooler Development of a Reverse Turbo-Brayton Cryocooler operating at 20 Kelvin with 20 Watts of refrigeration lift.

Propellant↗
NASA NTRS2017

The Opportunity in Commercial Approaches for Future NASA Deep Space Exploration Elements

In 2011, NASA released a report assessing the market for commercial crew and cargo services to low Earth orbit (LEO). The report stated that NASA had spent a few hundred million dollars in the Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS) program on the portion related to the development of the Falcon 9 launch vehicle. Yet a NASA cost model predicted the cost would have been significantly more with a non-commercial cost-plus contracting approach. By 2016 a NASA request for information stated it must "maximize the efficiency and sustainability of the Exploration Systems development programs", as "critical to free resources for reinvestment...such as other required deep space exploration capabilities." This work joins the previous two events, showing the potential for commercial, public private partnerships, modeled on programs like COTS, to reduce the cost to NASA significantly for "...other required deep space exploration capabilities." These other capabilities include landers, stages and more. We mature the concept of "costed baseball cards", adding cost estimates to NASA's space systems "baseball cards." We show some potential costs, including analysis, the basis of estimates, data sources and caveats to address a critical question - based on initial assessment, are significant agency resources justified for more detailed analysis and due diligence to understand and invest in public private partnerships for human deep space exploration systems? The cost analysis spans commercial to cost-plus contracting approaches, for smaller elements vs. larger, with some variation for lunar or Mars. By extension, we delve briefly into the potentially much broader significance of the individual cost estimates if taken together as a NASA investment portfolio where public private partnership are stitched together for deep space exploration. How might multiple improvements in individual systems add up to NASA human deep space exploration achievements, realistically, affordably, sustainably, in a relevant timeframe?

cost modeling estimation↗
NASA NTRS2019

Building an Economical and Sustainable Lunar Infrastructure to Enable Human Missions

To enable return of human missions to the surface of the Moon sustainably, a new study was initiated to assess the feasibility of developing an evolvable, economical and sustainable lunar surface infrastructure using a public-private partnerships approach. This approach would establish partnerships between NASA and private industry to mutually develop lunar surface infrastructure capabilities to support robotic missions initially and later evolve to full-scale commercial infrastructure services in support of human missions. These infrastructure services may range from power systems, communication and navigation systems, thermal management systems, mobility systems, water and propellant production to life support systems for human habitats. The public-private partnerships approach for this study leverages best practices from NASA’s Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS) program which introduced an innovative and economical approach for partnering with industry to develop commercial cargo transportation services to the International Space Station (ISS). In this approach, NASA and industry partners shared cost and risk throughout the development phase which led to dramatic reduction in development and operations costs of these transportation services. Following this approach, a Lunar COTS concept was conceived to develop cost-effective surface infrastructure capabilities in partnership with industry to provide economical, operational services for small-scale robotic missions. As a result, a self-contained lunar infrastructure system with power, thermal, communication and navigation elements was conceptually designed to increase capability, extend mission duration and reduce cost of small-scale robotic missions. To support human missions, this work has now been extended to analyze full-scale lunar infrastructure systems. This infrastructure system should have capabilities to support human missions from a few days to several months with minimal maintenance and replacement of parts. This infrastructure system should also maximize the use of existing lunar resources, such as, oxygen from regolith, water from ice deposits at the poles, and use of metals, such as iron and aluminum, from lunar regolith. The plan includes a buildup of these capabilities using a phased-development approach that will eventually lead to operational infrastructure services. By partnering with industry to develop and operate the infrastructure services using the COTS model, this plan should also result in significant cost savings and increased reliability. This paper will describe the Lunar COTS concept goals, objectives and approach for developing an evolvable, economical and sustainable human lunar infrastructure as well as the challenges and opportunities for development.

Zuniga, Allison↗
NASA NTRS2019

Building an Economical and Sustainable Lunar Infrastructure to Enable Human Lunar Missions

To enable return of human missions to the surface of the Moon sustainably, a new study was initiated to assess the feasibility of developing an evolvable, economical and sustainable lunar surface infrastructure using a public-private partnerships approach. This approach would establish partnerships between NASA and private industry to mutually develop lunar surface infrastructure capabilities to support robotic missions initially and later evolve to full-scale commercial infrastructure services in support of human missions. These infrastructure services may range from power systems, communication and navigation systems, thermal management systems, mobility systems, water and propellant production to life support systems for human habitats. The public-private partnerships approach for this study leverages best practices from NASA's Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS) program which introduced a new innovative and economical approach for partnering with industry to develop commercial cargo transportation services to the International Space Station (ISS). In this approach, NASA and industry partners shared cost and risk throughout the development phase which led to dramatically reducing development and operations costs of these transportation services. Following this approach, a Lunar COTS concept was conceived to follow this model and gradually develop cost-effective surface infrastructure capabilities in partnership with industry to provide economical, operational services for small-scale robotic missions. To support human missions, this work has now been extended to analyze full-scale lunar infrastructure systems. This infrastructure system will have capabilities to support human missions from a few days to several months and will also maximize the use of existing lunar resources, such as, water from ice deposits at the lunar poles. The plan includes a gradual buildup of these capabilities using a phased-development approach that will eventually lead to operational infrastructure services. By partnering with industry to develop and operate the infrastructure services using the COTS model, this plan will also result in significant cost savings, reduced risk and increased reliability. This paper will describe the Lunar COTS concept goals, objectives and approach for developing an evolvable, economical and sustainable human lunar infrastructure as well as the challenges and opportunities for development.

Lunar Surface Systems↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Viability of Small Dimension Crew Quarters for Surface Habitation

During early planning for the Artemis program’s sustained phase of lunar activity, NASA planners have been held to work towards a NASA reference lunar lander concept. With this activity taking place prior to the awarding of a lander contract, NASA planners cannot assume which of several potential landers will be available. This has limited habitation team engineers to a 12-metric ton mass limit for the reference concept of the lunar Surface Habitat. Consequently, minimal approaches have been applied to many habitat systems and it is important to determine acceptable volume for crew quarters. A number of both NASA and non-NASA surface habitat concepts have proposed relatively small crew quarters due to this constraint. Consequently, there is a need to collect objective test data to confirm or refute the validity of small crew quarters. NASA-STD-3001 is looked to for guidance in its many standards but offers little to no help. While prior versions called for private habitation, the current version – Revision B – calls for “individual privacy” to “accommodate social retreat.” Proposed Revision C modifications change the language slightly to “accommodate sleep and social retreat.” This is not enough guidance to determine the size of a crew quarters or even its capabilities. Unfortunately, only a small number of US spacecraft have included crew quarters, primarily the International Space Station and the Skylab Space Station. The space shuttle orbiter sometimes flew a set of private bunks that some might consider a crew quarters. All of these are dramatically smaller than US standards for minimum jail cells. The first opportunity for NASA to test a small crew quarters in a surface habitat application has been created through the Exploration Atmospheres test series, which is evaluating human performance under reduced cabin pressures. The test is converting the 20-Foot Vacuum Chamber at Johnson Space Center into a habitat, with the lower level outfitted as an EVA test area and the upper two levels for human habitation. The test will place eight people (six test subjects and two technicians) inside the chamber for eleven days. All eight will sleep in private quarters during the test. Volume limitations in the chamber forced extremely small crew quarters, measuring approximately 2 meters in length, 0.85 meters in height, and 0.9 meters in width. The test cabin pressure of 8.2 psi and elevated oxygen also introduces significant material limitations, limiting outfitting options. Nonetheless, the crew quarters design requirements were to accommodate visual separation, auditory separation, olfactory separation, tactile separation, air flow control, lighting control, single person personal computing, physical work surface access, sleep accommodations, non-sleep rest/relaxation, meditation, stretching, two-person meetings, snacking, changing clothes, viewing appearance, video communication, and audio communication. This paper will detail the acceptability of the crew quarters as measured in the October 2021 Exploration Atmosphere test. Based on this data, the viability of the type of crew quarters used in the 20 Foot Chamber will be assessed. Design recommendations for a 30-60-day Surface Habitat crew quarters will be provided, along with recommendations for future testing.

Crew Quarters↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Going South: Warnings from the Largest Project Engineering Failure in Modern History

NASA’s successful conduct of the Apollo Program greatly enhanced the prestige of the United States and remains broadly accepted as America’s gift “for all Mankind.” NASA’s Artemis Program to return humanity to the Moon promises to again reveal America’s leadership in this field. In preparation for the initiation of Artemis and its predecessor project Constellation, NASA thoroughly examined space program precedents. There remains, however, another relevant precedent which has not been examined in this context. Though this project involved technology radically different from that managed by NASA, its scope and environment in many ways parallel NASA’s large programs. This project was initiated by a private sector team that had, ten years before, successfully completed an effort that, at a cost of $275 billion (in 2021 USD), had stimulated new technology, had brought economic growth, had established their country as the world leader in engineering innovation, and, though it was a commercial success, had been broadly accepted as their nation’s gift “to all Mankind.” The new project was inspired by popular belief that private capital could again be marshalled to enhance national prestige and make yet another major contribution to the progress of Humanity. This new effort was predicted to require eight years and $258 billion. However, after the passage of nine years, achievement of only 45% complete on the baseline design, and expenditures 96% beyond the baseline cost, the project collapsed amid bankruptcy, political scandal, and criminal prosecution. While the private sector team that carried out this project was exceptionally well educated and experienced in the field, their efforts resulted in what remains (in terms of the money wasted) the largest project engineering failure in modern history. This paper examines what went wrong.

Project Management↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Interactive Mars: A Direct-Experience Mission

As NASA prepares to explore Mars, we describe an innovative architecture that could be based on public-private partnerships to offset the costs of such a mission, while demonstrating many of the key technologies—propulsion, communications, autonomy, and landing systems—that will be needed for future human exploration. We propose that NASA could use this capability to deliver dozens of small rovers to several sites on Mars to enable the creation of interactive games that would be operated commercially and sponsored privately. NASA would get a reduced cost to demonstrate a portion of the infrastructure needed for human exploration, and the private sector would get access to a new market and sponsorship opportunities for a broadly popular activity. In addition, our proposed architecture could enable a new, intuitive means for scientists to interpret data and conduct ground operations. This proposal is to broadly develop the overall concept, while focusing on the design of the novel communications system, developing requirements for the software architecture needed to control the rovers and implement gaming, and developing gaming concepts.

Carolyn R. Mercer↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Localization of Ad-Hoc Lunar Constellations in Communication Failure Modes for Distributed Spacecraft Autonomy

As lunar missions increase in complexity inspired by NASA’s Artemis Program, they will require reliable and sufficient capability of the Position, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) system to support their scientific objectives. In addition, NASA's Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) program initiates the proliferation of public and private exploration partnerships using small satellites from commercial and private organizations, expanding traditionally confined low Earth orbit to be used for missions beyond geosynchronous orbit (Zucherman et al., 2022). Therefore, the Lunar PNT system is also required to provide navigation services compatible with the smaller platforms being sent by the public and private sectors, like CubeSats. However, traditional approaches to deep space missions’ navigation based on ground radio facilities have difficulties in providing sufficient support for the increasing number of users and communication at a distance from the Earth (Kaplev et al., 2022). In particular, the existing Lunar navigation technologies such as weak signal global positioning system (GPS) and deep space network (DSN) are not able to ensure operations of the upcoming small-scale Lunar missions due to their limitations in localization performance as well as capacity aspects. Another way to provide Lunar PNT service is to create a dedicated Lunar global navigation satellite system (GNSS) constellation, like GNSS systems on Earth. Space agencies like NASA, ESA, and JAXA are now developing the lunar communications relay and navigation systems (LCRNS) and Lunar navigation satellite systems (LNSS). In their systems, satellites will be deployed in moon orbits to provide the communication, positioning, navigation, and timing (CPNT) service at the lunar south pole region where the Artemis base camp will be expected (Murata et al., 2022). Meanwhile, common challenges considered in lunar PNT research arise from poor geometry of the terrestrial GNSS satellites when seen from the lunar user, highly perturbed lunar orbits, and limitations in power, size, and cost of the equipment on lunar satellites (Iiyama et al., 2023). It is also not clear if there will be enough Lunar users to support the cost and resources this would require as the Low-cost surface missions may not be able to support the large power, mass, and weight requirements that these navigation solutions entail (Niemoeller et al., 2022). As an alternative, existing Lunar science and exploration assets could be used to create a low-cost, autonomous, ad-hoc, and on-demand mission-centric Lunar PNT swarm capable of providing PNT services to these low-cost lunar missions (Hagenau et al., 2021). Introducing the non-dedicated and ad-hoc Lunar navigation constellation gives a way to provide PNT services on-demand. The non-dedicated swarm assets of Lunar constellations are designed to localize themselves with minimal interaction with Earth by adding cooperative autonomous localization to lunar missions, freeing up valuable bandwidth and ground segment resources. An autonomous localization of Lunar constellations is based on the concept of the decentralized PNT system with a distributed extended Kalman filter (DEKF) approach to state estimation for minimal onboard operating costs. In the distributed data processing algorithm, computation is broken down and assigned to each satellite, resulting in a considerably decreased computational amount while maintaining the accuracy of the orbit ephemeris and clock offsets as the result of centralized data processing (Wen et al., 2019). The DEKF requires spacecraft to perform two-way ranging operations with each other to communicate simultaneously, leveraging neighbor two-way intersatellite link (ISL) measurements such as pseudoranges to, and relative velocities between, visible satellites as sensor values (Frank et al., 2021). The Lunar autonomous PNT simulation (LAPS) demonstrated the feasibility of orbital asset localization among ad-hoc Lunar small-sat constellations based on the DEKF in Hagenau et al. (2021) and evaluated the matching algorithm proposed by Frank et al. (2021) in scheduling position estimation updates. In previous papers, all assets and measurements are assumed to be always available without consideration of the impact of intermittent and permanent communication failure. This study presents localization performance with increasing levels of network degradation for swarm assets and users to demonstrate the robustness of the decentralized Lunar PNT service in more realistic scenarios. Main issues arising from communication failure include spacecraft permanent or transient loss, antenna failures, message delays, etc. We tested four possible reasons for network degradation for 7 days in 21 satellites frozen with an altitude of 5500 km, evenly spaced around 3 circular, 40 inclination orbital planes where each spacecraft has two directional antennas. As anchor nodes with an independent estimate of their position are required in the DEKF approach, two ground nodes in each pole and one node in the gateway were implemented in the simulation. First, the most probable failure scenario involves the loss of a single spacecraft due to solar interference and technical malfunctions of the assets. Losing the availability of a single spacecraft means losing the two-way ISL measurement of the asset in the DEKF update. In order to provide the best possible quality of PNT service with limited time and resources, the distributed Lunar constellations must schedule the communication activities. The scheduler leverages mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) for the coordination and scheduling of the desired “as-needed” localization service (Niemoeller et al., 2022). We assume the scheduler has completely excluded the spacecraft information before the DEKF update in the failure scenario. When a random spacecraft has been turned off at a specific time, the robustness of the autonomous Lunar PNT system is evaluated. The simulation results give an 11.5% degradation in median position accuracy compared to the idealized performance excluding the asset loss. Second, a large number of assets may vanish due to major hardware problems or meteor strikes around the moon. A multiple spacecraft loss can degrade the localization performance very fast by losing the communication ability to do cross-plane measurements and in-plane measurements in a 3-plane constellation. When the matching-based scheduler is aware of ISL availability, we investigate a large number of in-plane and cross-plane asset vanishments both in close proximity and equally spaced throughout the orbital plane. According to the simulations, the loss of in-plane measurements gives 40.2% degradation while cross-plane measurements degrade 50.5% of asset localization performance among available assets. Therefore, it is concluded that cross-plane measurements are more important in improving the position estimation accuracy. Third, spacecraft failure information can be lost due to the internal message delay, resulting in the DEKF update scheduler to solve the matching problem with unavailable assets. The DEKF update cycle is comprised of network setup, communication, and computations where a global broadcast network and a 2-way ISL network setup take 6 minutes in total (Frank et al., 2021). Once the broadcast network successfully transmits and receives information, a random spacecraft may lose its availability right before solving the matching problem. This means the matching solution is no longer optimal, resulting in degradation in the localization performance. A numerical assessment shows the matching-based scheduler with knowing failure holds 11.5% of position accuracy degradation, whereas the scheduler without knowing failure gives 34% degraded localization performance without asset loss. Fourth, a transient loss of a single or multiple spacecraft may occur due to their antenna outages. After losing the two-way ISL availability for a few DEKF update cycles, the availability of spacecraft can easily be recovered as their states have been independently updated using measurements from anchor nodes. It is likely that the longer failure will result in worse localization performance. We have tested the transient failure of a random single asset for 30 min in the simulation, which is losing 3 update cycles in the DEKF system. From the simulation results, the position accuracy has been degraded to 4.84% which is better than the degraded localization performance of 11.5% from the permanent loss scenario among available assets. In conclusion, the autonomous Lunar PNT system based on the DEKF approach shows the ability to maintain resilience and robustness in the possible communication failure scenarios, ensuring that localization accuracy is preserved across various network degradation and outages. Future studies on investigating user localization performance near the South Pole and the broadcast network system will be continued in the following months.

Yeji Kim↗