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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Resilience Development for Electric Energy Delivery Sytems (ResDEEDS): A Tool for Power System Resilience Planning (Rev. 1)

The INL Resilience Framework is built to be customized to a particular system’s characteristics, resilience goals, and hazards that it is likely to face. The challenge with a framework that is built to be customized is that it requires more effort from the user to understand the framework and apply it correctly to a particular system. The goal of the web application described here is to automate the framework application as much as possible. Inputs from users are standardized into a common format, but the modeling platform used is a modular framework built to adapt to any system. Baseline effects from common hazards are programmed with stochastic variables to allow for quick exploration of hazard impacts, but can be customized down to component-level impact if a user desires a high level of detail and specificity.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Residuals-based distributionally robust optimization with covariate information

We consider data-driven approaches that integrate a machine learning prediction model within distributionally robust optimization (DRO) given limited joint observations of uncertain parameters and covariates. Our framework is flexible in the sense that it can accommodate a variety of regression setups and DRO ambiguity sets. We investigate asymptotic and finite sample properties of solutions obtained using Wasserstein, sample robust optimization, and phi-divergence-based ambiguity sets within our DRO formulations, and explore cross-validation approaches for sizing these ambiguity sets. Through numerical experiments, we validate our theoretical results, study the effectiveness of our approaches for sizing ambiguity sets, and illustrate the benefits of our DRO formulations in the limited data regime even when the prediction model is misspecified.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assignment of Freight Traffic in a Large-scale Intermodal Network under Uncertainty

This paper presents a methodology for freight traffic assignment in a large-scale road-rail intermodal network under uncertainty. Network uncertainties caused by natural disasters have dramatically increased in recent years. Several of these disasters (e.g., Hurricane Sandy, Mississippi River Flooding, and Hurricane Harvey) severely disrupted the U.S. freight transportation network, and consequently, the supply chain. To account for these network uncertainties, a stochastic freight traffic assignment model is formulated. An algorithmic framework, involving the sample average approximation and gradient projection algorithm, is proposed to solve this challenging problem. The developed methodology is tested on the U.S. intermodal network with freight flow data from the Freight Analysis Framework. The experiments consider three types of natural disasters that have different risks and impacts on transportation networks: earthquakes, hurricanes, and floods. It is found that for all disaster scenarios, freight ton-miles are higher compared to the base case without uncertainty. The increase in freight ton-miles is the highest under the flooding scenario; this is because there are more states in the flood-risk areas, and they are scattered throughout the U.S.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1987

Optimal dynamic remapping of parallel computations

A large class of computations are characterized by a sequence of phases, with phase changes occurring unpredictably. The decision problem was considered regarding the remapping of workload to processors in a parallel computation when the utility of remapping and the future behavior of the workload is uncertain, and phases exhibit stable execution requirements during a given phase, but requirements may change radically between phases. For these problems a workload assignment generated for one phase may hinder performance during the next phase. This problem is treated formally for a probabilistic model of computation with at most two phases. The fundamental problem of balancing the expected remapping performance gain against the delay cost was addressed. Stochastic dynamic programming is used to show that the remapping decision policy minimizing the expected running time of the computation has an extremely simple structure. Because the gain may not be predictable, the performance of a heuristic policy that does not require estimnation of the gain is examined. The heuristic method's feasibility is demonstrated by its use on an adaptive fluid dynamics code on a multiprocessor. The results suggest that except in extreme cases, the remapping decision problem is essentially that of dynamically determining whether gain can be achieved by remapping after a phase change. The results also suggest that this heuristic is applicable to computations with more than two phases.

Nicol, David M.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Dual adaptive control: Design principles and applications

The design of an actively adaptive dual controller based on an approximation of the stochastic dynamic programming equation for a multi-step horizon is presented. A dual controller that can enhance identification of the system while controlling it at the same time is derived for multi-dimensional problems. This dual controller uses sensitivity functions of the expected future cost with respect to the parameter uncertainties. A passively adaptive cautious controller and the actively adaptive dual controller are examined. In many instances, the cautious controller is seen to turn off while the latter avoids the turn-off of the control and the slow convergence of the parameter estimates, characteristic of the cautious controller. The algorithms have been applied to a multi-variable static model which represents a simplified linear version of the relationship between the vibration output and the higher harmonic control input for a helicopter. Monte Carlo comparisons based on parametric and nonparametric statistical analysis indicate the superiority of the dual controller over the baseline controller.

Mookerjee, Purusottam↗
NASA NTRS1989

Parallel and vector computation for stochastic optimal control applications

A general method for parallel and vector numerical solutions of stochastic dynamic programming problems is described for optimal control of general nonlinear, continuous time, multibody dynamical systems, perturbed by Poisson as well as Gaussian random white noise. Possible applications include lumped flight dynamics models for uncertain environments, such as large scale and background random atmospheric fluctuations. The numerical formulation is highly suitable for a vector multiprocessor or vectorizing supercomputer, and results exhibit high processor efficiency and numerical stability. Advanced computing techniques, data structures, and hardware help alleviate Bellman's curse of dimensionality in dynamic programming computations.

Hanson, F. B.↗
DOE OSTI2020

mpi-sppy: Optimization Under Uncertainty for Pyomo

We introduce a new Pyomo extension for optimization under uncertainty, mpi-sppy. This extension allows for the mixing of, and sharing of information between, various algorithmic approaches for optimization under uncertainty. We will discuss the underlying architecture and assess the performance and scalability of mpi-sppy on various systems, including HPC clusters.

27 ARPA - Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data and Multistage Optimization for the New Grid

Three essential capabilities for using exascale computing resources on next generation power grid applications are: generating large renewable energy datasets, modeling damage and operations during and after extreme events, and employing multi-stage optimization for infrastructure planning. Powerscenarios, developed as part of the ExaSGD project, addresses these capabilities by enabling users to build synthetic wind farms for large test systems using numerical weather prediction-based data sources. We share examples of using Powerscenarios to build out wind farms on the ACTIVSg2000 test system, to enable simulated operations and emergency asset allocation during a hurricane strike, and to compute multi-stage infrastructure buildouts.

economic dispatch↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evolution of Scenario Generation Capabilities in the ExaSGD Project

High-fidelity renewable energy scenarios and rare-event high-impact contingencies are essential for modeling operations and infrastructure expansion of the next generation power grids using exascale computing resources. As the ExaSGD project progressed, our capabilities for generating scenarios for modeling wind power output at multiple wind farms significantly improved, evolving from the use of independent random perturbations to importance sampling-based techniques capturing representative spatial-temporal relations. Contingency generation also improved, evolving from standard N-1 techniques to probabilistic models of infrastructure damage resulting from extreme weather events. We review the developments in the realistic intermittent-energy scenario forecasting and extreme-event contingency creation as the ExaSGD project progressed and discuss the future work in these areas.

economic dispatch↗
DOE OSTI2022

A shared-mobility-based framework for evacuation planning and operations under forecast uncertainty

To meet evacuation needs from carless populations who need personalized assistance to evacuate safely, in this article we propose a ridesharing-based evacuation program that recruits volunteer drivers before a disaster strikes, and then matches volunteer drivers with evacuees once demand is realized. Here we optimize resource planning and evacuation operations under uncertain spatiotemporal demand, and construct a two-stage stochastic mixed-integer program to ensure high demand fulfillment rates. We consider three formulations to improve the number of evacuees served, by minimizing an expected penalty cost, imposing a probabilistic constraint, and enforcing a constraint on the conditional value at risk of the total number of unserved evacuees, respectively. We discuss the benefits and disadvantages of the different risk measures used in the three formulations, given certain carless population sizes and the variety of evacuation modes available. We also develop a heuristic approach to provide quick, dynamic and conservative solutions. We demonstrate the performance of our approaches using five different networks of varying sizes based on regions of Charleston County, South Carolina, an area that experienced a mandatory evacuation order during Hurricane Florence, and utilize real demographic data and hourly traffic count data to estimate the demand distribution.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Patchy snapshots of nuclear chain reactions

Stochastic fluctuations of the neutron population within a nuclear reactor are typically prevented by operating the core at a sufficiently high power. This regime, where the evolution of the neutron density is essentially deterministic, is key for automatic protection and safety systems to safely detect unwanted power excursions during an accident, and to rapidly initiate a reactor trip procedure in case it is needed. Recent works, supported by numerical simulations, have however reported that, for large reactors, the branching nature of the fission reactions might induce strongly non-Poissonian patterns in the neutron spatial distribution, and that stochastic fluctuations might still persist at reactor powers close to operating conditions (startup phase). An international program conducted by LANL, IRSN and CEA was therefore setup to experimentally detect and characterize such fluctuations and correlations. An experiment took place in 2017 at the Reactor Critical Facility (RCF) of the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (USA). In this paper we will report the main findings of this experimental program, supported by stochastic models and by the development of a dedicated high-fidelity Monte Carlo simulation code. We will in particular describe and explain the strong patchiness in neutron power distributions measured at the RCF, as well as a peculiar ‘blinking’ behavior of the core, and discuss the consequences of these findings on nuclear safety.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Demand response event simulator and risk-aware bidding tool for industrial customers

Incentive Based Demand Response (IBDR) program participation delivers financial benefits to the consumers and resiliency benefits to the electricity grid. Effectively participating in these programs as an industrial consumer requires bidding strategies that balance financial risk with operational constraints. Existing bidding tools tend not to fully incorporate stochastic IBDR event modeling, program specific baseline and payment/penalty calculations, or demand reduction process control schemes that account for the cascading impacts of shutdown in complex facilities. Here, this work presents an IBDR event simulator and risk-aware bidding framework tool integrating three key components: a flexible, parameterized demand response event generator that rigorously accounts for program structures and stochasticity, a demand response operational simulation model that generates explicit control strategies for load reduction, and a Monte Carlo simulator to evaluate financial risk for varied capacity bids. A case study at a wastewater treatment plant participating in PG&E's Capacity Bidding Program demonstrates the framework's utility. In the peak capacity price month of August, optimal bidding by the wastewater treatment plant nets a mean IBDR benefit of $101,000 (67% of the August electricity bill) with 0.4% probability of a financial loss. This framework enables industrial operators to make informed bidding decisions, negotiate better program terms with demand response load aggregators, and analyze energy flexibility investments at their facilities. Ultimately, this work reduces participation barriers in IBDR programs and supports the broader goal of enhancing grid reliability and renewable energy integration.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Strategic Placement and Sizing of Distributed Generation for Resilience Enhancement of Distribution Grids With Microgrid Formation

The rise in frequency and severity of extreme weather events highlights the need for resilient power distribution networks. Microgrids can help improve the resilience of distribution grids by providing continuous power supply using local distribution generation (DG) when the distribution grid fails. In this paper, we propose an approach for optimal placement and sizing of DG to form multiple microgrids throughout the distribution network by restoration actions such as switching operations in case of distribution grid outages caused by extreme weather events. Considering the randomness of damaged distribution lines, the DG placement and sizing problem is formulated as a two-stage stochastic mixed-integer program, with the first stage determining the placement and size of DG, and the second stage focusing on minimizing the amount of load shedding through network restoration and microgrid formations for each scenario. Due to the large number of scenarios, the sample average approximation (SAA) method is employed to solve the problem. The results of case studies on a modified IEEE 33 bus distribution grid demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed DG placement and sizing strategy in improving the resilience of distribution grids by allowing the formation of multiple microgrids. In addition, the robustness and accuracy of the SAA method are validated through various case studies.

Distributed generation planning↗
NASA NTRS1986

Dynamic remapping decisions in multi-phase parallel computations

The effectiveness of any given mapping of workload to processors in a parallel system is dependent on the stochastic behavior of the workload. Program behavior is often characterized by a sequence of phases, with phase changes occurring unpredictably. During a phase, the behavior is fairly stable, but may become quite different during the next phase. Thus a workload assignment generated for one phase may hinder performance during the next phase. We consider the problem of deciding whether to remap a paralled computation in the face of uncertainty in remapping's utility. Fundamentally, it is necessary to balance the expected remapping performance gain against the delay cost of remapping. This paper treats this problem formally by constructing a probabilistic model of a computation with at most two phases. We use stochastic dynamic programming to show that the remapping decision policy which minimizes the expected running time of the computation has an extremely simple structure: the optimal decision at any step is followed by comparing the probability of remapping gain against a threshold. This theoretical result stresses the importance of detecting a phase change, and assessing the possibility of gain from remapping. We also empirically study the sensitivity of optimal performance to imprecise decision threshold. Under a wide range of model parameter values, we find nearly optimal performance if remapping is chosen simply when the gain probability is high. These results strongly suggest that except in extreme cases, the remapping decision problem is essentially that of dynamically determining whether gain can be achieved by remapping after a phase change; precise quantification of the decision model parameters is not necessary.

Nicol, D. M.↗
DOE OSTI2027

From zonal to nodal capacity expansion planning: Spatial aggregation impacts on a realistic test-case

Solving power system capacity expansion planning (CEP) problems at realistic spatial resolutions is computationally challenging. Thus, a common practice is to solve CEP over zonal models with low spatial resolution rather than over full-scale nodal power networks. Due to improvements in solving large-scale stochastic mixed integer programs, these computational limitations are becoming less relevant, and the assumption that zonal models are realistic and useful approximations of nodal CEP is worth revisiting. Here, this work is the first to conduct a systematic computational study on the assumption that spatial aggregation can reasonably be used for ISO-scale CEP. By considering a realistic, large-scale test network based on the state of California with over 8000 buses, we find that well-designed small spatial aggregations can yield good approximations but that coarser zonal models may result in large distortions of investment decisions, e.g., capacity under-investment of up to 41% for the lowest resolution model considered.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS1991

Supercomputer optimizations for stochastic optimal control applications

Supercomputer optimizations for a computational method of solving stochastic, multibody, dynamic programming problems are presented. The computational method is valid for a general class of optimal control problems that are nonlinear, multibody dynamical systems, perturbed by general Markov noise in continuous time, i.e., nonsmooth Gaussian as well as jump Poisson random white noise. Optimization techniques for vector multiprocessors or vectorizing supercomputers include advanced data structures, loop restructuring, loop collapsing, blocking, and compiler directives. These advanced computing techniques and superconducting hardware help alleviate Bellman's curse of dimensionality in dynamic programming computations, by permitting the solution of large multibody problems. Possible applications include lumped flight dynamics models for uncertain environments, such as large scale and background random aerospace fluctuations.

Chung, Siu-Leung↗
NASA NTRS1992

Distance estimation and collision prediction for on-line robotic motion planning

An efficient method for computing the minimum distance and predicting collisions between moving objects is presented. This problem is incorporated into the framework of an in-line motion-planning algorithm to satisfy collision avoidance between a robot and moving objects modeled as convex polyhedra. In the beginning, the deterministic problem where the information about the objects is assumed to be certain is examined. L(1) or L(infinity) norms are used to represent distance and the problem becomes a linear programming problem. The stochastic problem is formulated where the uncertainty is induced by sensing and the unknown dynamics of the moving obstacles. Two problems are considered: First, filtering of the distance between the robot and the moving object at the present time. Second, prediction of the minimum distance in the future in order to predict the collision time.

Kyriakopoulos, K. J.↗