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A summary of updates to the electricity bill calculator in the most recent version of the System Advisor Model including changing the true-up month and new compensation options for metering and billing. Also included a preview of features in the upcoming release, such as billing demand for energy charges.
The System Advisor Model(TM) (SAM) is a free, open-source desktop application for techno-economic analysis of energy technologies. By combining detailed performance modeling with financial analysis, SAM allows users to assess technology trade-offs, explore future scenarios, and make informed decisions about energy investments. Users also have access to model details and the ability to embed SAM's core models in their own applications. This webinar, hosted by National Laboratory of the Rockies researchers Janine Keith and Matt Prilliman, highlights how this widely used modeling tool supports data-driven decision-making for energy systems.
The CSP Systems Analysis project was a three-year effort supporting the Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) Subprogram within the Solar Energy Technologies Office of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). The goal of the CSP Systems Analysis project was to provide timely and accurate CSP cost data to the DOE and predict performance and cost for emerging technologies that may impact research directions and industry investment. The project consisted of six, mostly independent tasks. Major accomplishments over the three-year period of performance were as follows. The NREL team maintained current cost estimates for CSP technologies by annual updates to the cost input parameters within NREL's System Advisor Model (SAM). SAM is a performance and cost simulation software that includes technology models for the primary CSP technologies. During the period from 2016 to 2018, the estimated cost within SAM's default CSP molten-salt power tower technology dropped from 13.0 to 11.1 cent/kWh (real dollars without incentives). Power cycle models for the supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO2) Brayton Cycle were developed and made an option within SAM's molten-salt power tower model. These models were subsequently used to evaluate the cost reduction potential of alternative salts. The partial-cooling model was found to provide the greatest cost-reduction potential due to its combination of efficiency and temperature differential across the turbine and thermal energy storage (TES) system. These studies were documented in two journal articles. NREL's optical modeling software SolTrace and SolarPILOT were made more versatile and released as open-source software to the CSP community. These tools help researchers and developers to model and optimize the optical performance of CSP collector systems. The new features were highlighted in a recorded webinar that can be accessed from the NREL SAM website. New models for solar-thermal systems, that is, applications for solar industrial process heat, were developed, validated, and installed within SAM. The analysis includes a 2018 review of linear collectors in the market that are tailored for solar process heat applications. In 2018 the NREL team also developed an annual simulation for a direct steam generation system integrated with a latent-heat TES system. This analysis was submitted for journal publication. The NREL team continued to support the exchange of information and development of CSP guidelines within the international CSP community of SolarPACES. Much of the work under this project was presented at SolarPACES, including the development of a modeling checklist to help CSP stakeholders standardize the models used for estimating CSP performance and cost. The CSP Systems Analysis project also supported DOE requests for tracking and reporting programmatic targets for the CSP Subprogram.
Here, this paper investigates the techno-economic performance of a molten salt power tower integrated with an air-cooled supercritical carbon dioxide recompression cycle. Prior research into the cycle design point showed trade-offs between efficiency, cost, and temperature difference across the heat input, resulting in trade-offs between the design-point generation of the molten salt power tower system and the cost of sensible-heat thermal energy storage. Prior research into cycle off-design showed that colder ambient temperature designs have higher efficiencies on cold days but lower efficiency and capacity degradation on hot days. We present a framework to evaluate how cycle design, cost, and corresponding off-design performance affect the techno-economic performance of the molten salt power tower system. We use a steady-state off-design cycle model assuming fixed shaft speeds, inventory control, and air-cooler fan power control and integrate the cycle model with the molten salt power tower model from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's System Advisor Model. First, we present a surrogate model that uses a heuristic approach to correct the interpolation when the cycle reaches capacity limitations at ambient temperatures hotter than design. Next, we evaluate how the recompression cycle design-point ambient temperature, air-cooler approach temperature, air-cooler fan power, and recuperator conductance influence cycle and system design metrics. Finally, we complete annual simulations using an hourly "duck curve" pricing schedule and present annual performance metrics to evaluate the cumulative effects of the cycle design parameters and corresponding off-design performance on molten salt power tower techno-economics.
Falling costs of energy storage combined with an increasing need to mitigate variable generation integration issues is leading to more PV projects that include batteries. Large PV plants that include batteries face challenges optimizing the value of the power they produce, especially when the batteries are DC-coupled and otherwise clipped power (due to high DC/AC ratio) is available. Multiple charging times and sources must be considered, including: grid charging, charging from PV that would otherwise be exported to the grid, and charging from clipped PV power. Then discharge schedules must be optimized against time-of-day pricing. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory in partnership with Southern Company has developed a heuristic algorithm in the System Advisor Model (SAM) which strategically charges the battery from PV and discharges the battery depending on the time-of-day prices of the PPA, the forecast PV production, and the estimated wear cost of the battery. The algorithm and case study results from a generic plant will be presented with recommendations for future work.
Geothermal cost and performance evaluation implemented via techno-economic assessment (TEA) modeling is critical for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and other geothermal industry stakeholders in assessing the current state of geothermal technologies and to identify existing hurdles to commercially viable geothermal development. The Geothermal Electricity Technology Evaluation Model (GETEM) is a major TEA tool used in estimating the economic feasibility and levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of conventional hydrothermal systems and enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). Since 2021, GETEM has been transitioning from an intricate spreadsheet model to a user-friendly tool within the System Advisor Model (SAM) developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). Apart from enabling an expanded visibility of the geothermal model among other renewable resources, having GETEM in SAM has the advantage of simulation automation, better usability, updates tracking, active user inputs/feedback, and extended financial modeling. GETEM is used in developing supply curves for NREL's Annual Technology Baseline (ATB), which provides inputs to the Renewable Energy Potential (reV) and the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) models. The geothermal module in NREL's reV model assesses the geothermal energy potential in the conterminous United States by defining the geospatial intersection of geothermal resources with existing grid infrastructure within the constraint of land use characteristics. The ReEDS model is a capacity expansion model used for simulating the long-term build-out and operation of the U.S. generation and transmission system based on current energy costs and policies. To ensure enhanced representation of current industry trends in our model transitions and development, we organized a two-day virtual workshop to elicit geothermal industry stakeholder input and recommendations on our current approaches and assumptions on techno-economic, resource assessment, and deployment scenarios modeling of geothermal technologies. Participants included developers, operators, investors, regulatory agencies, system modelers, national laboratory researchers, consultants, and other stakeholders. In this workshop, we gained stakeholder insights on current geothermal plant performance (i.e., capacity factors), updated drilling costs and learning curves, and next-generation technologies such as closed-loop and superhot rock geothermal. Other outcomes from this workshop and its impact on future geothermal development feasibility, resource availability, and capacity expansion studies are compiled and discussed.
Geothermal cost and performance evaluation implemented via technoeconomic assessment (TEA) modeling is critical for the Department of Energy (DOE) and other geothermal industry stakeholders in assessing the current state of geothermal technologies and to identify existing hurdles to commercially viable geothermal development. The Geothermal Electricity Technology Evaluation Model (GETEM) is a major TEA tool used in estimating the economic feasibility and levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of conventional hydrothermal systems and enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). Since 2021, GETEM has been transitioning from an intricate spreadsheet model to a user-friendly tool within the System Advisor Model (SAM) developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). Apart from enabling an expanded visibility of the geothermal model among other renewable resources, having GETEM in SAM has the advantage of simulation automation, better usability, updates tracking, active user inputs/feedback, and extended financial modeling. GETEM is used in developing supply curves for the Annual Technology Baseline (ATB). The ATB data are inputs to the Renewable Energy Potential (reV) and the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) models. The geothermal module in NREL’s reV model assesses the geothermal energy potential in the conterminous United States by defining the geospatial intersection of geothermal resources with existing grid infrastructure within the constraint of land use characteristics. The ReEDS model is a capacity expansion model used for simulating the long-term build-out and operation of the US generation and transmission system based on current energy costs and policies. To ensure enhanced representation of current industry trends in our model transitions and development, we organized a two-day virtual workshop to elicit geothermal industry stakeholder input and recommendations on our current approaches and assumptions on technoeconomic, resource assessment, and deployment scenarios modeling of geothermal technologies. Participants included developers, operators, investors, regulatory agencies, system modelers, national laboratory researchers, consultants, and other stakeholders. In this workshop, we gained stakeholder insights on current geothermal plant performance (i.e., capacity factors), updated drilling costs and learning curves, and next generation technologies such as closed loop and superhot rock geothermal. Other outcomes from this workshop and its impact on future geothermal development feasibility, resource availability, and capacity expansion studies are compiled and discussed.
The PV Reliability PerformanceModel (PV-RPM) tool is used to simulate the cost and energy impacts of component faults and failures for a hypothetical PV system. This model, originally developed by Sandia National Laboratories, is a new feature in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's System Advisor Model (SAM), which performs stochastic analysissampling of probability distributions for faults, failures, and repairs. One PV system was created for this analysis to be representative of a portfolio of maintenance data maintained by Sandia National Laboratories. Fault,failure, and repair distributions from this system are varied from current baseline conditions to simulate different reliability and repair scenarios and resulting energy and cost impacts. Results highlight ways to express the uncertainty around PV system performance when considering the probabilistic behavior of components inthe system, and ways the PV-RPM model can be used to explore different failure and repair scenarios.
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The integration of thermal energy storage into a concentrating solar power system allows for mitigating some of the risk associated with uncertain solar irradiance and uncertain energy prices. We solve a 48 h dispatch optimization model with continually updated conditional point forecasts of both direct normal irradiance (DNI) and electricity prices with a rolling-horizon scheme at hourly resolution over the course of a year. Joint, conditional forecasts for DNI and prices are formed using an autoregressive moving-average time series model with exogenous weather predictors. We guide dispatch using a mixed-integer programming model, but in order to evaluate performance we use the System Advisor Model (SAM) of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. SAM is a techno-economic simulation model that accounts for plant thermodynamics with higher fidelity. Our conditional DNI forecasts improve annual revenue by 4%–12% over using historical forecasts based on data from previous years. Conditional price forecasts improve annual revenue by 6%–19% in the real-time market over analogous historical forecasts. Updating these forecasts every six hours, rather than every 24 h, further improves annual revenue by 5%–6%. Here, we also investigate a method that values terminal inventory in our dispatch optimization model, again when used in a rolling-horizon scheme.
Reducing uncertainty in the prediction and/or verification of photovoltaic (PV) plant output can directly increase the expected return on investment for each party in a contract, likely leading to more favorable terms for the contract, including a possible reduction in interest rates. Note that a reduction of 1% in the interest rate is estimated to reduce the levelized cost of energy by approximately 0.5 cents/kWh. This project developed a capability to provide spectrally resolved solar information from the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB), effectively providing 20 years of half-hourly data for all of the United States at a 4-km by 4-km spatial resolution. These data are now available freely to users directly through a geographic information system-based Web interface (https://nsrdb.nrel.gov) as well as through an application programming interface. Users of these data can conduct more accurate prefeasibility studies and assess multiple PV technologies. It is expected that widely used models such as PVSyst, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's System Advisor Model (SAM), and PlantPredict, designed by First Solar, will develop the capabilities to use these spectral data.
This study developed a capability to provide spectrally resolved solar resource data from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), effectively providing 20 years of half-hourly data for all of the United States at a 4-km by 4-km spatial resolution. These data are now available freely to users directly through a geographic information system-based web interface (https://nsrdb.nrel.gov) as well as through an application programming interface. Users of these data can conduct more accurate prefeasibility studies and assess multiple photovoltaic (PV) technologies. It is expected that widely used models such as PVSyst, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's System Advisor Model (SAM), and First Solar-designed PlantPredict will develop the capabilities to use these spectral data.
As the world increases renewable energy deployment, there is an increasing interest in hybridizing various generation and storage technologies to maximize net benefit to the developer and/or off-taker. A particularly interesting combination of renewable technologies is concentrating solar power (CSP) with thermal energy storage (TES), photovoltaics (PV), and electrochemical battery energy storage (BESS). Due to the system complexity of CSP technology, it is difficult to evaluate the technological and financial performance of a CSP-PV hybrid system without detailed modeling of annual operations. To address this challenge, we have developed a modeling framework for evaluating the performance and financial viability of CSP systems hybridized with PV and battery technologies. This modeling effort incorporates CSP tower and trough systems into an existing modeling tool recently developed by NREL referred to as the Hybrid Optimization and Performance Platform (HOPP). This report outlines the modeling methodology as well as preliminary results from example case studies conducted using the model. The methodology describes: (i) the integration of CSP tower and troughs into HOPP using python interfaces to access System Advisor Model (SAM) underlining technology models, (ii) the mathematical formulation of the mixed integer linear program dispatch optimization model which optimizes operations of storage asset to either maximize system revenue or minimize operating cost while load following, (iii) the design analysis methods implemented within HOPP, and (iv) simulation clustering for the purposes of reducing computational expense. We exercise the model using a case study of a future scenario where we assume (i) CSP and PV technologies achieve the 2030 cost targets provided by the Solar Energy Technologies Office (SETO), (ii) battery costs reduce to the 2030 mid cost projection presented by NREL. Lastly, (iii) electricity prices for southern California in 2030 are provided by NREL's Cambium database, and (iv) a capacity payment of $150/kW-yr based on the system capacity factor during the to 100 net-load hours.
This user manual is intended to provide instructions to volunteer beta testers on how to use Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) PV Reliability Performance Model (PV-RPM) features in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) System Advisor Model (SAM) version 2017.1.17 r4 (NREL, 2017). This new feature is provided in SAM to allow users with reliability data the ability to develop and run scenarios where PV performance and costs are impacted from components that can fail stochastically. This is intended to be an advanced user feature as it requires knowledge and data regarding different PV component failure modes. It also relies heavily on the SAM LK scripting language, which is not utilized by a majority of SAM users. NREL has published a SAM LK users guide (Dobos, 2017) and has multiple online help topics and videos to get users familiar with the scripting language and what it can do. This user instruction manual will provide some background on how data collected from a PV system can be used as inputs in the PV-RPM model, which will give data owners the ability to develop their own reliability and repair distributions outside of the example provided here.
This study developed a capability to provide spectrally resolved solar resource data from the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB) effectively providing 20 years of half-hourly data for all of the US at a 4kmx4km spatial resolution. This data is now available freely to users directly through a GIS based web interface (https://nsrdb.nrel.gov) as well as through an Application Programming Interface. Users of this data can conduct more accurate pre-feasibility studies and assess multiple PV technologies. It is expected that widely used models such as PVSyst, National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) System Advisor Model (SAM) and First Solar designed PlantPredict will develop the capabilities to use this spectral data.
A model for PV plus energy storage and fuel cells was developed in the System Advisor Model (SAM). This model was used to evaluate the ramp rate and interconnection capacity factor for a hypothetical utility-scale plant for several configuration options. For PV only, the plant experienced 3345 violations of a 10%/minute ramp up limitation and a interconnection capacity factor of 17.6%. Adding a battery reduced the violations to 154 per year and the magnitude of the average violation to 2%. Adding a fuel cell to the PV system increased the capacity factor to 78% without improving ramp violations. Using a combined PV plus storage plus fuel cell arrangement maintained the improved capacity factor while reducing ramp up violations to 23, illustrating the potential to operate a hybrid system both to enable grid integration requirements and increase utilization of the interconnection.
A model for PV plus energy storage and fuel cells was developed in the System Advisor Model (SAM). This model was used to evaluate the ramp rate and interconnection capacity factor for a hypothetical utility-scale plant for several configuration options. For PV only, the plant experienced 3345 violations of a 10%/minute ramp up limitation and a interconnection capacity factor of 17.6%. Adding a battery reduced the violations to 154 per year and the magnitude of the average violation to 2%. Adding a fuel cell to the PV system increased the capacity factor to 78% without improving ramp violations. Using a combined PV plus storage plus fuel cell arrangement maintained the improved capacity factor while reducing ramp up violations to 23, illustrating the potential to operate a hybrid system both to enable grid integration requirements and increase utilization of the interconnection.
Agrivoltaic systems are dual-use configurations that co-locate agriculture and photovoltaic (PV) infrastructure and require careful design to balance crop performance and energy generation. A critical element of agrivoltaic design is the spatial and temporal distribution of irradiance and shade within and around PV arrays. To support research, planning, and stakeholder decision-making, we introduce the U.S. Agrivoltaic Shading Tool, a novel web-based application that delivers high-resolution irradiance and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) modeling for ten standardized PV configurations across the conterminous United States. The tool leverages the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) System Advisor Model (SAM) to perform detailed irradiance simulations, using meteorological data from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB). Outputs include seasonal, monthly, weekly, and diurnal patterns of available sunlight, amount of shade, irradiance, and PAR at ground level within agrivoltaic system footprints. For a user's selected location, these results are visualized through interactive visualizations, heatmaps, and time-series plots, designed to be accessible to both technical and non-technical users. In addition to facilitating rapid spatial exploration of agrivoltaic light environments, the tool will offer seamless integration with the InSPIRE Agrivoltaics Design and Analysis Model (ADAM). This optional workflow will allow users to port selected site and configuration parameters into a more advanced modeling environment for further customization of structural layouts, crop-system compatibility, power generation, and technoeconomic performance. Finally, to promote open science, the entire dataset will be hosted and available for open access through the OpenEI platform. By standardizing and disseminating high-quality irradiance data and design tools, the U.S. Agrivoltaic Shading Tool supports a wide range of users, including researchers, landowners, energy developers, and policymakers, in evaluating the agronomic and energetic feasibility of agrivoltaic systems across the United States.