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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

System Configuration Evaluation for Process Settling of Hanford Waste Solid Particles

Direct Feed High-Level Waste (DFHLW) is a potential flowsheet operations approach to initiating high-level waste (HLW) vitrification prior to completion of the Hanford Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) Pretreatment Facility. A settle/decant process has been proposed to concentrate solids prior to delivery to the WTP HLW Facility during DFHLW operations, wherein the solids in a settled layer would be remixed with the supernatant liquid remaining after decanting operations to provide the feed at required solids concentrations. Settling would be used in lieu of purpose-built filtration or other solids separation equipment. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is providing baseline technical support to the Washington River Protection Solutions (WRPS) Flowsheet Integration group. To support planning for DFHLW, WRPS previously requested that PNNL evaluate the current data set available to predict the time needed for HLW solids to settle and the solids concentration and strength of that settled layer, to identify gaps in the understanding and predictive capability of HLW solids waste settling times, and to provide scoping estimates of the potential settling times. Eight technical gaps were identified for predicting settling times and characteristics of the formed sediment layers. In addition to the data gaps, an overarching observation was made that there is significant variation in behavior of settling rate and settled layer data. The settling time required to concentrate solids via a settle/decant process was determined from the limited data to have a difference of potentially more than a factor of 5,000 in the estimated settling times, varying from 0.2 to 1,060 days for example depending on process vessel depth and final sediment solids concentration. In contrast, successful processes of liquid-forward output streams resulting from in-tank settling and decanting forward liquid have been reported for operations conducted at the Hanford Site. The purpose of this current report is to further support DFHLW planning by evaluating double-shell tank (DST) and alternate vessel equipment and operational configurations to enable optimization of the settle/decant process to concentrate solids. Hanford waste processing behavior specific to liquid feed availability following a slurry transfer in a DST is summarized, including process stream characteristics and process equipment configurations. The performance of DST process equipment configurations is evaluated for possible improvements using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and simple analytical models. Potential new vessel design(s) specific to enabling effective settle/decant processes, and cursory summary of other separate and inline solids separations processes, are also provided. The CFD results indicated that improvement in outflow solids concentration was promoted by a reduction in the slurry flow rate, angling the distributor nozzles downward, and lifting the transfer pump. The solid-liquid analysis evaluating particle trajectory confirmed that the potential for particle ingestion (in the transfer pump) was decreased with increased radial separation between the inlet and outlet (transfer pump inlet), decreased inlet flow, and decreased liquid density and viscosity for a neutrally buoyant inlet flow. An assessment was also made of the potential for inflow configuration changes to result in the discrete mounding or piling of solids within the tank. Based on the characterization of the settled waste to date, HLW sediments will be unlikely to sustain a substantial angle of repose to facilitate significant variations in the elevation of the settled solids.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

Topological background discrimination in the PandaX-III neutrinoless double beta decay experiment

The PandaX-III experiment plans to search for neutrinoless double beta decay (0ν ββ ) of 136 Xe in the China JinPing underground Laboratory (CJPL). The experiment will use a high pressure gaseous time projection chamber (TPC) to register both the energy and the electron track topology of an event. This article is devoted to demonstrate our particular detector setup capabilities for the identification of 0ν ββ and the consequent background reduction. As software tool we use REST, a framework developed for the reconstruction and simulation of TPC-based detector systems. We study the potential for background reduction by introducing appropriate parameters based on the properties of 0ν ββ events. We exploit for the first time not only the energy density of the electron track-ends, but also the electron scattering angles produced by an electron near the end of its trajectory. To implement this, we have added new algorithms for detector signal and track processing inside REST. Their assessment shows that background can be reduced by about 7 orders of magnitude while keeping 0ν ββ efficiency above 20% for the PandaX-III baseline readout scheme, a two-dimensional 3 mm pitch stripped readout. More generally, we use the potential of REST to handle 2D/3D data to assess the impact on signal-to-background significance at different detector granularities, and to validate the PandaX-III baseline choice. Finally, we demonstrate the additional potential to discriminate surface background events generated at the readout plane in the absence of to, by making use of event parameters related with the diffusion of electrons.

Majorana↗
DOE OSTI2021

Transportation Hub Infrastructure Expansion: Decision Support Under Uncertainty

The Athena project (www.athena-mobility.org) has worked to investigate the relationship between the Dallas-Fort Worth Airport (DFW) and the greater Dallas area in order to better understand and therefore better inform future decision-making regarding the critical infrastructure that influence mobility between the airport and the city. Through this work, infrastructure related to curbside pickup and drop-off, parking, public transit, and the road network congestion were identified as critical to the operation of the DFW transportation hub. The infrastructure analysis and expansion aspect of the Athena project is focused on the restructuring of the CTA curb as a hierarchical curb and the building or repurposing of parking infrastructure as the interplay between these two areas. Many sources of uncertainty exist that may impact future airport and transportation hub operations, such as passenger volume growth, population demographic changes over time, electric vehicle (EV) adoption rates, and autonomous vehicle (AV) adoption rates. Due to these sources of uncertainty, we have selected for our research a modeling framework that can capture various types of uncertainty and hedge against those uncertainties in the optimization process. We analyze road network and curb congestion, the rise of transportation networking companies, trends in parking usage, existing policies around this infrastructure, airport revenue streams, and other contributing factors to enable infrastructure decision making with less uncertainty. To accomplish this wholistic analysis, we have developed a novel multi-stage, multi-period stochastic optimization model which considers the airport's decisions from 2025-2045 under different possible future macro trajectories and day-to-day variations in operational conditions captured as "annual representation of operations" scenarios with respective probabilities. This model has also been designed to leverage the outputs of various efforts under the Athena project to create a combined decision framework for infrastructure decisions. These various efforts include the route optimization model, the ASPIRES simulation, the mode choice model, and the SUMO traffic simulation. Our computational experiments of this system at scale have resulted in a working version of our infrastructure model which enables the explicit representation and consideration of various sources of uncertainty in the decision process to enable robust, flexible decision-making. This model has been effectively run on NREL's HPC system, Eagle, with large numbers of stochastic scenarios and shows promise as a scalable tool for robust consideration of uncertainties in airport planning. We have tested our model using 30,240 operational circumstances in total, resulting in a problem with more 200 million variables. This model was solved in several different configurations, and a workflow to simulate the performance of the infrastructure model results was developed and deployed. In general, our results indicate that a combination of remote parking, remote curb infrastructure, and dynamic pricing can generate revenue, reduce emissions, accommodate emerging technologies such as AVs and EVs, and manage airport passenger growth over time. We note the success of the proposed strategy depends on the data collection and forecasting abilities of DFW. We have also seen that the AV adoption by TNCs might necessitate larger amounts of remote curb. The results of this work inform strategies for airport infrastructure decision making, as well as demonstrate the value of an adaptable model, but also indicate that there are avenues remaining where further research would be of value.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Photovoltaic Deployment Scenarios toward Global Decarbonization: Role of Disruptive Technologies

To totally decarbonize global electrical systems using photovoltaics (PVs) in the 2050–2060 decade, the world would need to install 63.4 TW of PV. This article models and explores how a PV manufacturing ramp‐up trajectory toward this goal can be achieved while assuming that investors continue to make financially rational decisions avoiding stranded production assets and therefore protecting their return on investment. The model effectively exploits experience curve benefits in both the scaling of the manufacturing process and continued progress in product design technologies. The scale‐up challenge is amplified because trajectories that achieve this goal require an unprecedented ramp‐up of production capacity over just two decades, followed by relatively modest demand to maintain the installed base and support continued population growth. It is demonstrated that sustainable ramp‐up of manufacturing is indeed possible and shown that the deployment of the requisite manufacturing capacity can be accelerated and accomplished at lower total capital cost by the introduction of disruptive technologies that have lower capital intensity, embedded energy, or higher efficiency.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Second-generation downscaled earth system model data using generative machine learning

The second-generation Sup3rCC dataset provides high-resolution meteorological data generated through the downscaling of multiple earth system models (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). This downscaling is performed through application of a generative machine learning approach called Super-Resolution for Renewable Resource Data (sup3r). This dataset builds on the first-generation Sup3rCC data by applying improved bias correction methods and adding downscaled precipitation to the output variables. As with the first Sup3rCC version, the data still include temperature, wind speed and direction at multiple heights, pressure, three components of downwelling solar radiation, and relative humidity—all at 4-kilometer (km) hourly resolution over the contiguous United States. This is a 25x spatial enhancement and 24x temporal enhancement of the source 100-km daily-average ESM data. This extension of the Sup3rCC dataset includes data from six ESMs from two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) totaling 400 years of data with multiple future projections of changing meteorological conditions. The scenario selection was based on a structured evaluation of historical ESM skill and comprehensive representation of possible trajectories of future climate change in temperature, humidity, precipitation, solar irradiance, and near-surface wind speeds. The inclusion of multiple future projections is intended to enable users to assess key drivers of un 36 certainty and variability. All data are double-bias corrected, resulting in a product that can be used out-of-the-box for energy system analysis with minimal historical bias. The potential applications of Sup3rCC data extend to various topics in renewable energy resource assessment, energy systems modeling, and grid resilience studies. High-resolution future meteorological projections are critical for evaluating the effects of changing meteorological conditions on renewable energy generation, energy demand, and for optimizing energy storage and grid infrastructure. The 4-km hourly resolution of the downscaled data enables understanding of spatial and temporal variability at the scales necessary for energy system operational planning. In addition, the dataset can support risk assessments by providing detailed information on possible future extreme weather events and long-term meteorological variability at scales relevant to energy infrastructure. By offering an enhanced representation of possible future meteorological conditions, the second-generation Sup3rCC dataset enables more precise modeling of energy resilience and adaptation strategies in response to changing meteorological conditions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Regional inertia dynamics of U.S. interconnections: An event-based measurement approach

Power grid inertia plays a vital role in frequency stability following large disturbances, yet its distribution across the U.S. grid is highly uneven. While interconnection-wide inertia benchmarks are useful, they can mask regional variability driven by resource mix, network coupling, and geographic separation. This paper extends event-driven inertia estimation to the regional scale using field measurements from the Frequency Monitoring Network (FNET/GridEye). Starting from balancing authority and independent system operator footprints, candidate regions are refined using a composite coherency score that combines frequency-trajectory shape similarity, timing spread, and lead/lag behavior to ensure dynamic consistency. A filtered sliding difference method (FSDM) is then used to construct regional frequency trajectories, detect disturbance onset, and compute robust regional rate-of-change of frequency (RoCoF). Regional, local, and interconnection inertia are estimated by combining RoCoF with event power imbalance, and additional indicators (regional-to-system inertia ratio and inertial-support arrival time) quantify regional-to-interconnection coupling and relative regional contributions. The method is demonstrated on eleven regions across the Eastern Interconnection (EI) and the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC), with the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) used for validation. In ERCOT, estimates compared against energy management system (EMS) values achieve a mean absolute percentage error of 17.94%. WECC exhibits consistently shorter inertial-support arrival times (0.15–0.3 s) than EI (0.7–1.1 s), highlighting contrasting coupling and disturbance-propagation behavior. Overall, the results reveal pronounced spatial heterogeneity in inertia and coupling, underscoring the value of regional monitoring for both operational decision-making and long-term system planning.

Disturbance events↗
DOE OSTI2025

Demographic Microsimulator for Integrated Urban Systems: Adapting Panel Survey of Income Dynamics to Capture the Continuum of Life

Agent-based models (ABMs) in transportation modeling simulate activity and travel decisions at the disaggregate level of households and individuals. To do this, ABMs require detailed and realistic information on agents’ socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. Various synthetic population generators have been proposed to address this need. However, most of those currently in practice are cross-sectional in nature and do not account for the dynamics within households and individuals as they progress through life events over time. This is a major shortcoming, as literature has shown that transportation decisions are affected by the transition between and co-occurrence of life cycle events. While some demographic evolution simulators have been proposed to address this issue, they are developed using cross-sectional data and capture only a small set of life cycle events and their interdependence. Addressing these drawbacks, we propose a demographic microsimulator (DEMOS) that captures the “continuum of life” by considering a range of household- and individual-level life cycle events. DEMOS is developed using the Panel Survey of Income Dynamics, one of the world’s longest-running longitudinal surveys. The DEMOS submodels consider key life cycle events that are influenced by agents’ demographic variables. DEMOS is applied to evolve the population of the San Francisco Bay Area over a 9-year horizon. Results demonstrate how DEMOS generates life trajectories and how DEMOS outputs match the observed demographic trends. DEMOS is expected to enable longitudinal analysis in the context of ABMs and expand ABMs analyses relating to dynamic processes such as household-level vehicle transactions.

Demographic evolution↗
DOE OSTI2023

Disruptive Photovoltaic Technologies Can Accelerate Global Decarbonization

This contribution explores PV manufacturing capacity expansion trajectories needed to achieve the goal of global decarbonization assuming that investors make financially rational decisions avoiding stranded production assets while still effectively exploiting experience curve benefits in both manufacturing process and product design. Substantial production cost savings and timely decarbonization risk mitigation could accrue by adoption and scaling of high efficiency multijunction device architectures and thin film direct bandgap semiconductor technologies that provide lower manufacturing capital intensity. We demonstrate that there is a $1-2 trillion market opportunity for such disruptive technologies while also providing hundreds of billions of dollars of cost savings to reach total decarbonization.

decarbonization↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ecological acclimation: A framework to integrate fast and slow responses to climate change

Ecological responses to climate change occur across vastly different time-scales, from minutes for physiological plasticity to decades or centuries for community turnover and evolutionary adaptation. Accurately predicting the range of ecosystem trajectories will require models that incorporate both fast processes that may keep pace with climate change and slower ones likely to lag behind and generate disequilibrium dynamics. However, the knowledge necessary for this integration is currently fragmented across disciplines. We develop ‘ecological acclimation’ as a unifying framework to emphasize the similarity of dynamics driven by processes operating on dramatically different time-scales and levels of biological organization. The framework focuses on ecoclimate sensitivities, measured as the change in an ecological response variable per unit of climate change. Acclimation processes acting at different time-scales cause these sensitivities to shift in magnitude and even direction over time. We highlight shifting ecoclimate sensitivities in case studies from diverse ecosystems, including terrestrial plant communities, coral reefs and soil microbiomes. Models predicting future ecosystem states inevitably make assumptions about acclimation processes; these assumptions must be explicit for users to evaluate whether a model is appropriate for a given forecast horizon. Similarly, decision frameworks that clearly account for multiple acclimation processes and their distinct time-scales will help natural resource managers plan for ecological impacts of climate change from years to many decades into the future. We outline a synthetic research programme focused on the time-scales of ecological acclimation to reduce uncertainty in ecological forecasts.

climate adaptation↗
DOE OSTI2025

How demand for and trade of construction materials affects greenhouse gas emissions

Construction materials generate nearly one-third of global carbon emissions, yet conventional accounting captures only a fraction of this impact. Using EXIOBASE data spanning 25 years, we tracked emissions across construction supply chains for cement, steel, metals, and plastics. While global construction demand nearly tripled, regional patterns diverged significantly. The EU reduced emissions despite increased demand through renewable energy adoption and emissions trading, while China's construction boom—driving most global growth—significantly increased domestic emissions. Manufacturing contributes most to embodied emissions compared to resource extraction and waste treatment. Increased reliance on offshore production undermines domestic emission control strategies, highlighting the need for expanded carbon border adjustment mechanisms. Without policies addressing full supply chain emissions, even aggressive climate initiatives will be compromised by carbon leakage, creating an emissions trajectory incompatible with global climate targets.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Documenting 15 Years of Reductions in U.S. Solar Photovoltaic System Costs

The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Solar Energy Technologies Office (SETO) has played a key role in reducing PV system costs by supporting essential and high-impact research, development, and deployment (RD&D) activities. SETO's efforts go beyond improving technology and hardware innovations to tackle soft costs like installation labor, permitting, and customer acquisition. This holistic focus ensures that solar energy remains a viable, scalable solution for combating climate change and achieving the nation's clean energy goals. This National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL) report highlights over a decade of transformative advancements in PV system technology and its cost reductions from 2010 to 2024, documenting a remarkable trajectory in line with the goals set forth by SETO. By analyzing benchmark configurations across different photovoltaic (PV) sectors over years, this work provides industry stakeholders with a comprehensive understanding of cost trends and their impact on Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) targets established under the 2010 SunShot Initiative.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

The OSIRIS-REx Sample Return Capsule re-entry: A coordinated seismo-acoustic observational campaign for the study of meteor phenomena

Objects entering Earth’s atmosphere at hypersonic velocities may generate powerful acoustic waves. Depending on atmospheric conditions and acoustic propagation paths, they may be captured using ground or balloon-borne microbarometers and microphones. Impacts into the Earth’s atmosphere by asteroids in a meter-size range are sporadic and unannounced, and thus, well-documented scientific observations of asteroids are rare and generally happen by chance. Arriving from interplanetary space at hypervelocity, spacecraft are considered analogues for low velocity meteoroids and asteroids impacting the Earth’s atmosphere, and as such provide unprecedented and unique opportunity to carry out planned observational campaigns and perform detailed studies of meteor phenomena. However, since the end of the Apollo era, only four instances of a hypersonic re-entry of an artificial body from interplanetary space with an incident speed of 11-12 km/s have been observed and studied. These were the Sample Return Capsules (SRCs) that brought physical samples of extraterrestrial material back to Earth (Genesis, Stardust, Hayabusa 1, Hayabusa 2). These re-entries were also detected by infrasound and/or seismic sensors. The next opportunity to observe an artificial meteor will be on 24 September 2023 with the re-entry of NASA’s OSIRIS-REx SRC that will bring samples of the carbonaceous near-Earth asteroid Bennu. The re-entry consists of several flight phases, including hypersonic and supersonic, providing a unique opportunity to observe these by infrasound and seismic sensors. We will discuss observational campaign efforts aimed to capture geophysical signals generated by the OSIRIS-REx SRC re-entry. This campaign utilizes an unparalleled number of instruments, both ground and airborne, strategically positioned in the immediate and extended region around the projected re-entry trajectory to maximize the scientific output.

47 - OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Reconstruction of Charged Particle Tracks in Realistic Detector Geometry Using a Vectorized and Parallelized Kalman Filter Algorithm

One of the most computationally challenging problems expected for the High-Luminosity Large Hadron Collider (HL-LHC) is finding and fitting particle tracks during event reconstruction. Algorithms used at the LHC today rely on Kalman filtering, which builds physical trajectories incrementally while incorporating material e ects and error estimation. Recognizing the need for faster computational throughput, we have adapted Kalman-filterbased methods for highly parallel, many-core SIMD and SIMT architectures that are now prevalent in high-performance hardware. Previously we observed significant parallel speedups, with physics performance comparable to CMS standard tracking, on Intel Xeon, Intel Xeon Phi, and (to a limited extent) NVIDIA GPUs. While early tests were based on artificial events occurring inside an idealized barrel detector, we showed subsequently that our mkFit software builds tracks successfully from complex simulated events (including detector pileup) occurring inside a geometrically accurate representation of the CMS-2017 tracker. Here, we report on advances in both the computational and physics performance of mkFit, as well as progress toward integration with CMS production software. Recently we have improved the overall eciency of the algorithm by preserving short track candidates at a relatively early stage rather than attempting to extend them over many layers. Moreover, mkFit formerly produced an excess of duplicate tracks; these are now explicitly removed in an additional processing step. We demonstrate that with these enhancements, mkFit becomes a suitable choice for the first iteration of CMS tracking, and eventually for later iterations as well. We plan to test this capability in the CMS High Level Trigger during Run 3 of the LHC, with an ultimate goal of using it in both the CMS HLT and oine reconstruction for the HL-LHC CMS tracker.

Cerati, Giuseppe↗
DOE OSTI2024

Autonomous thermal tracking reveals spatiotemporal patterns of seabird activity relevant to interactions with floating offshore wind facilities

Planning is underway for placement of infrastructure needed to begin offshore wind (OSW) energy generation along the West Coast of the United States and elsewhere in the Pacific Ocean. In contrast to the primarily nearshore windfarms currently in the North Atlantic, the seabird communities inhabiting Pacific Wind Energy Areas (WEAs) include significant populations of species that fly by dynamic soaring, a behavior dependent on wind and in which flight height increases steeply with wind speed. Therefore, a more precise and detailed assessment of their 3D airspace use is needed to better understand the potential collision risks that OSW turbines may present to these seabirds. Toward this end, a novel technology called the ThermalTracker-3D (TT3D), which uses thermal imaging and stereo vision, was developed to render high-resolution (on average within ±5 m) flight tracks and related behavior of seabirds. The technology was developed and deployed on a wind-profiling LiDAR buoy in the Humboldt WEA, located 34 to 57 km off California’s coast. During the at-sea deployment between 24 May and 13 August 2021, the TT3D successfully tracked birds moving between 10 and 500 m from the device, around the clock, and in all weather conditions; a total of 1407 detections and their corresponding 3D flight trajectories were recorded. Mean altitudes of detections ranged 6-295 m above sea level (asl). Considering the degree of overlap with anticipated rotor swept zones (RSZ), which extend 25-260 m asl, 79% of detected birds (per m 3 of airspace) moved below the RSZ, 21% moved at heights overlapping the RSZ, and another 0.04% occurred at heights exceeding the RSZ. The high-resolution tracks provided valuable insight into seabird space use, especially at heights that make them vulnerable to collision during various environmental conditions (e.g., darkness, strong winds). Observations made by the TT3D will be useful in filling critical knowledge gaps related to estimating collision and avoidance between seabirds and OSW facilities in the Pacific and elsewhere. Future research will focus on enhancing the TT3D’s identification capabilities to the lowest taxon through validation studies and artificial intelligence, further contributing to seabird conservation efforts associated with OSW.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Community Public Mobility Using On-Demand, Low-Speed Electric Vehicles: A Case Study in Downtown St. Louis, Missouri

Legacy fixed route transit systems designed to serve commuters struggle to provide efficient and effective service for short neighborhood trips and for population groups unable to access and egress transit stops using active modes (e.g., elderly, disabled). Neighborhood on-demand transit (ODT) services using low-speed electric vehicles (LSEV) are an innovative technological solution that can help fill this gap in service (e.g., short, high-frequency trips) for diverse populations and trip types. This study evaluated user characteristics and travel behavior for a neighborhood ODT service (using LSEVs) in downtown St. Louis, Missouri using responses from a community survey (n=244), ridership data, and vehicle trajectory information. A comparative analysis between neighborhood ODT, fixed route transit, and transportation network companies (TNC) was also conducted from the perspectives of total travel time, cost, and greenhouse gas emissions. Ultimately, the goal of the analysis was to motivate and inform holistic public mobility systems where different services are optimized to meet specific community needs. Findings indicate that the neighborhood ODT was effective at reaching diverse populations (elderly (20%), lower income (27%), and households with limited access to private vehicles (34%)). ODT reduced total travel time by 32% compared to fixed route transit, produced 2.4 - 4.3 times less greenhouse gas emissions per passenger mile (compared to transit and TNCs), and was more affordable (free to users) than alternative options ($1 for transit, $10-12 for TNCs). Overall satisfaction rates were high, with 80% of respondents rating the service a 4 or 5 out of 5.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Supercell precipitation contribution to the United States hydroclimate

Abstract This research seeks to understand simulated supercell precipitation characteristics across the conterminous United States (CONUS) using high‐resolution, convection‐permitting, dynamically downscaled simulations for three 15‐year epochs. Epochs include a historical end‐of‐20th‐century period (1990–2005) and two end‐of‐21st‐century (2085–2100) scenarios for intermediate and pessimistic greenhouse gas concentration trajectories. Simulated updraft helicity, which measures the corkscrew flow within a storm's updraft, is used as a proxy for supercells. An algorithm tracks and catalogues updraft helicity swaths that, when buffered, are used to acquire simulated precipitation from supercells. The historical epoch provides a baseline climatology of supercell precipitation for a contemporary climate, which is then compared against the two future epochs to assess how supercell precipitation may change during the 21st century. Despite their relatively small size, supercells provide critical precipitation to the Wheat and Corn Belts, large expanses of CONUS pasture and rangeland, regional aquifers and several large river basins. Many areas in the central CONUS receive upwards of 3%–6% of their annual and 5%–8% of their warm‐season precipitation from these storms. Results suggest that precipitation contribution from supercells will decrease in the future across most of the High Plains and Central and Northern Great Plains with robust increases likely across the south‐central and Southeast regions. Supercell precipitation rates are expected to increase for large portions of the CONUS by the end‐of‐the‐21st‐century, suggesting a growing threat for flash floods from these storms as they become more efficient precipitation producers. This research provides an initial perspective on the magnitude of supercell precipitation and potential changes to this important hydrologic input to assist water‐sensitive industries, private and public insurance markets, agriculture entities, as well as inform plans to mitigate and build resilience to rapid environmental and societal change.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hydrogen and Electric Charging Infrastructure for Heavy-Duty Trucks: A Nationally Scalable Megaregion Assessment

Decarbonizing regional and long-haul freight is challenging due to the limitations of battery-electric commercial vehicles and infrastructure constraints. Hydrogen fuel cell medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (MHDVs) offer a viable alternative, aligning with the decarbonization goals of the Department of Energy and commercial entities. Historically, alternative fuels like compressed natural gas and liquefied propane gas have faced slow adoption due to barriers like infrastructure availability. To avoid similar issues, effective planning and deploying zero-emission hydrogen fueling infrastructure is crucial. This research develops deployment plans for affordable, accessible, and sustainable hydrogen refueling stations, supporting stakeholders in the decarbonized commercial vehicle freight system. It aims to benefit underserved and rural energy-stressed communities by improving air quality, reducing noise pollution, and enhancing energy resiliency. This research also provides a blueprint for replacing diesel in over-the-road Class 8 freight truck applications with hydrogen fueling solutions. The study focuses on the Texas Triangle Megaregion (I-45, I-35, and I-10), the I-10 corridor between San Antonio, TX, and Los Angeles, CA, and the I-5/CA-99 corridors between Los Angeles, CA, and San Francisco, CA. This area represents a significant portion of U.S. heavy-duty freight movement, carrying ~8.5% of the national freight volume. Using the OR-AGENT (Optimal Regional Architecture Generation for Efficient National Transport) modeling framework, the study conducts an advanced assessment of commercial vehicles, road and freight networks, and energy systems. The framework integrates data on freight mobility, traffic, weather, and energy pathways to deliver a region-specific, optimized vehicles powertrain architectures, infrastructure deployment solutions, operational logistics, and energy pathways. By considering all vehicle origin-destination pairs utilizing these corridors and all feasible fueling station location options, the framework's genetic algorithm identifies the minimum number and optimal locations of hydrogen refueling stations, ensuring no vehicle is stranded. It also determines fuel schedules and quantities at each station. A roadmap for station deployment based on multiple adoption trajectories ensures a strategic rollout of hydrogen refueling infrastructure.

Sujan, Vivek [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000269882342)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Initial Atmospheric Transport of Particles

A new version of the Initial Atmospheric Transport (IAT) model has been developed. This report fully characterizes the new model. IAT is designed to model heat release into the atmosphere that contains contaminated particles. The heat release forms a buoyant puff or plume. Buoyancy is quickly dissipated in 10's to 100's of seconds through drag and entrainment of ambient air. The final location of contaminant particles in the atmosphere after dissipation of abnormal heat is an important input to long term transportation codes such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) code. Ultimately the settling of contaminants after long term transport provides a basis for estimating health consequences. In comparison to the old version, the new model includes explicit simulation of particles, newly formulated equations of motion for a rising puff, and a new plume model. The plume model releases many instances of a single puff along a single trajectory in a way that balances energy released over a longer period than would be appropriate for a single puff. The puff model has additions for vorticity, turbulence, virtual mass, drag, and entrainment. The particle model leads to direct interfacing between IAT and the long-term transport code HYSPLIT. Previously, particle locations were given a pattern based on IAT's puff trajectory with no particle simulation. Now, particles are explicitly simulated, and 3-D spatial distributions of particles are output based on final positions. Ballistic particles are thrown outward at high velocity from explosive events and tend to hit the ground before the end of the simulation. Non-ballistic particles tend to get pulled into the rising puff s ring of vorticity with some escaping to ambient conditions as buoyant energy dissipates. A new model verification and validation effort was made for the new plume model. The Wallops Island Solid Rocket Propellant (SRP) fire plume was extracted to a 3-D transient dataset. After calibration, the model performs better than previous single puff attempts. Even so, error levels in the process used to estimate location and ambient weather conditions approach 30%. This leads to the conclusion that unplanned photogrammetry evaluations of the IAT model are useful but not sufficiently accurate to quantify model parameters. Like previous attempts, the vertical motion entrainment parameters come out much too high in comparison to values for other studies in the literature. It is suspected that a new model of shear entrainment would alleviate this problem. Unfortunately, IAT already has more calibration parameters than the data comparisons thus far can resolve with statistical certainty. This underscores the need to verify and validate the IAT model using detailed CFD studies that allow ideal statistical comparison with the IAT model for hundreds of cases. Even so, validation by comparison to carefully planned experiments (i.e. with acceptable error levels) is also necessary because the dynamics of entrainment are at a sub-grid level for CFD. Though better validation and verification are most important, many new enhancements are still envisioned for future IAT development. These include particle rain out due to condensation and agglomeration of water, direct connection to the North American Mesoscale (NAM) weather dataset, dynamic weather conditions, including ambient particle entrainment into the puff, and detrainment at the puff to ambient mixing interface. In general, including detailed aerosol dynamics is the greatest coming challenge which will require an entire new sub-model in IAT. This is very important if contaminant particles change in such a way that they increase or decrease in their potential harm to the environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗