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At least 1,081 records · Page 60

Online Output-Based Inertia Estimation of Modern Power Systems

The overall inertia of modern power systems is drastically impacted by the penetration level of converter-based resources (CBRs). The intermittent output of CBRs and their dependence on the weather conditions affirm the need for a realtime inertia estimation approach. This can help the transmission system operators(TSOs) to be continuously aware of the changes in the system inertia and to take suitable control actions. This paper is a step forward to a totally data-driven framework for power system inertia estimation using the available measurements from the phasor measurement units (PMUs). This inertia estimation is done based on the spectral analysis of the so-called Koopman linear operator. Koopman operator considers the relationship between the system's inertia and its dynamical response to slight disturbances in the load. Simulation results show that Koopman operator can approximate the system behavior in a reconstructed linear space hence inertia constant is estimated accurately.

data-driven↗

plexos-coad (Plexos Class-Object-Attribute Data manipulation tool)

Clean energy systems including the future power grid are enabled via the development, analysis and application of advanced simulation of complex systems based on large datasets. The ability to handle and enable the simulation of complex systems allows researchers and analysts to address significant problems with greater confidence and greater levels of integrity. Parallel execution of complex systems is paramount to addressing increasing complexity. Programmatic interfaces for software configuration and parallel execution enable handling greater complexity and improving simulation integrity. The Class Object Attribute Data (COAD) software is written as a programmatic interface to the PLEXOS dataset that enables the decomposition of the dataset in time and execution in parallel without loss of integrity. COAD also enable the recomposition of solution datasets that are the output of distributed parallel execution of the core simulator.

Jones, Wes↗

Carbon Capture through Membranes - Leveraging Multiphysics Modeling, Dimensional Analysis and Machine Learning to Scale up and Optimize Devices and Processes for Decarbonization

We study the separation performance using membrane modules through dimensional analysis (DA). We formulate the main process equations to identify relevant dimensionless numbers inherent in the physics. In particular, we identify that the critical step in the separation process is mass transfer through the selective layer. Remarkably, the dimensionless feed flow (DFfeed) emerges as a crucial factor in describing this process. Not only does DFfeed directly appear in the governing equations, but it also holds a physical significance associated with the time scales for the mass transfer across the feed side and through the selective layer. Regarding the output performance variables, we consider the recovery, stage cut, productivity and purity. In this context, we profit from experimental data and CFD simulations to evaluate the separation performance of the modules when varying the input flowrate, the scale of the module, and the CO2 permeance. These datasets enable us to establish correlations between performance metrics and the dimensionless feed flow (DFfeed). Using simple power functions of DFfeed, we obtain R2 coefficients exceeding 0.99, indicating the accuracy of the correlations built in the present work. In the future, we wish to use DA to understand key transport mechanisms, predict and control module performance, and challenge the universality of these findings by testing various gas separations across different membrane modules beyond our case study.

Pedrozo, Hector A.↗

Modeling and Scaling up of Membrane Modules Leveraging Dimensional Analysis

In the current analysis, we study the separation performance using membrane modules through dimensional analysis (DA). We formulate the main process equations to identify relevant dimensionless numbers inherent in the physics. In particular, we identify that the critical step in the separation process is mass transfer through the selective layer. Remarkably, the dimensionless feed flow (DFfeed) emerges as a crucial factor in describing this process. Not only does DFfeed directly appear in the governing equations, but it also holds a physical significance associated with the time scales for the mass transfer across the feed side and through the selective layer. Regarding the output performance variables, we consider the recovery, stage cut, productivity and purity. In this context, we profit from experimental data and CFD simulations to evaluate the separation performance of the modules when varying the input flowrate, the scale of the module, and the CO2 permeance. These datasets enable us to establish correlations between performance metrics and the dimensionless feed flow. Using simple power functions of DFfeed, we obtain R2 coefficients exceeding 0.99, indicating the accuracy of the correlations built in the present work. In the future, we wish to use DA to understand key transport mechanisms, predict and control module performance, and challenge the universality of these findings by testing various gas separations across different membrane modules beyond our case study.

Pedrozo, Hector A.↗

An Object Model for a Rocket Engine Numerical Simulator

Rocket Engine Numerical Simulator (RENS) is a packet of software which numerically simulates the behavior of a rocket engine. Different parameters of the components of an engine is the input to these programs. Depending on these given parameters the programs output the behaviors of those components. These behavioral values are then used to guide the design of or to diagnose a model of a rocket engine "built" by a composition of these programs simulating different components of the engine system. In order to use this software package effectively one needs to have a flexible model of a rocket engine. These programs simulating different components then should be plugged into this modular representation. Our project is to develop an object based model of such an engine system. We are following an iterative and incremental approach in developing the model, as is the standard practice in the area of object oriented design and analysis of softwares. This process involves three stages: object modeling to represent the components and sub-components of a rocket engine, dynamic modeling to capture the temporal and behavioral aspects of the system, and functional modeling to represent the transformational aspects. This article reports on the first phase of our activity under a grant (RENS) from the NASA Lewis Research center. We have utilized Rambaugh's object modeling technique and the tool UML for this purpose. The classes of a rocket engine propulsion system are developed and some of them are presented in this report. The next step, developing a dynamic model for RENS, is also touched upon here. In this paper we will also discuss the advantages of using object-based modeling for developing this type of an integrated simulator over other tools like an expert systems shell or a procedural language, e.g., FORTRAN. Attempts have been made in the past to use such techniques.

Mitra, D.↗

NASA Tech Briefs, February 2014

Topics include: JWST Integrated Simulation and Test (JIST) Core; Software for Non-Contact Measurement of an Individual's Heart Rate Using a Common Camera; Rapid Infrared Pixel Grating Response Testbed; Temperature Measurement and Stabilization in a Birefringent Whispering Gallery Resonator; JWST IV and V Simulation and Test (JIST) Solid State Recorder (SSR) Simulator; Development of a Precision Thermal Doubler for Deep Space; Improving Friction Stir Welds Using Laser Peening; Methodology of Evaluating Margins of Safety in Critical Brazed Joints; Interactive Inventory Monitoring; Sensor for Spatial Detection of Single-Event Effects in Semiconductor-Based Electronics; Reworked CCGA-624 Interconnect Package Reliability for Extreme Thermal Environments; Current-Controlled Output Driver for Directly Coupled Loads; Bulk Metallic Glasses and Matrix Composites as Spacecraft Shielding; Touch Temperature Coating for Electrical Equipment on Spacecraft; Li-Ion Electrolytes Containing Flame-Retardant Additives; Autonomous Robotic Manipulation (ARM); CARVE Log; Platform Perspective Toolkit; Convex Hull-Based Plume and Anomaly Detection; Pre-Filtration of GOSAT Data Using Only Level 1 Data and an Intelligent Filter to Remove Low Clouds; Affordability Comparison Tool - ACT; "Ascent - Commemorating Shuttle" for iPad; Cassini Mission App; Light-Weight Workflow Engine: A Server for Executing Generic Workflows; Model for System Engineering of the CheMin Instrument; Timeline Central Concepts; Parallel Particle Filter Toolkit; Particle Filter Simulation and Analysis Enabling Non-Traditional Navigation; Quasi-Terminator Orbits for Mapping Small Primitive Bodies; The Subgrid-Scale Scalar Variance Under Supercritical Pressure Conditions; Sliding Gait for ATHLETE Mobility; and Automated Generation of Adaptive Filter Using a Genetic Algorithm and Cyclic Rule Reduction.

Source record↗

Optimized Profile Retrievals of Aerosol Microphysical Properties from Simulated Spaceborne Multiwavelength Lidar

This work is an expanded study of one previously published onretrievals of aerosol microphysical properties from space-borne multiwavelengthlidarmeasurements. The earlier studiesand this one weredone in the framework of the NASA Aerosol-Clouds-Ecosystems (now the Aerosol Clouds Convection and Precipitation) NASA mission. The focus here is on the capabilities of a simulated spacebornemultiwavelengthlidar system for retrieving aerosol complex refractive index (m = mr+ imi) and spectral single scattering albedo (SSA(λ)), although other bulk parameters such as effective (reff) radius and particle volume (V) and surface (S) concentrations are also studied. The novelty presented here is the use of recently published, case dependent optimized-constraints on the microphysical retrievals using three backscattering coefficients (β) at 355, 532 and 1064 nm and two extinction coefficients (α) at 355 and 532 nm, typically known as the stand-alone 3β+2α lidar inversion. Case-dependent optimized-constraints (CDOC) limit the ranges of refractive index, both real (mr) and imaginary (mi) parts, and of radii that are permitted in the retrievals. Such constraints are selected directly from the 3β+2α41measurements through an analysis of the relationship between spectral dependence of aerosol extinction-to-backscatter ratios (LR) and the Ångström exponent of extinction. The analyses presented here for different sets ofsize distributions and refractive indices reveal that the direct determination of CDOCareonly feasible for cases where the uncertaintiesin the input optical data areless than 15 %.Forthe same simulated spacebornesystem and yield than in Whiteman et al., (2018), we demonstrated that the use of CDOC as essential for the retrievals of refractive index and also largely improved retrieval of bulk parameters. A discussion of the global representativeness of CDOC is presented using simulated lidar data from a 24-hour satellite track using GEOS model output to initialize the lidar simulator.We found that CDOCare representative of many aerosol mixtures in spite of some outliers (e.g. highly hydrated particles) associatedwith the assumptions of bimodal size distributions and of the same refractive index for fine and coarse modes. Moreover, sensitivity tests performed using synthetic data reveal that retrievals of imaginary refractive index (mi) and SSA are extremely sensitive to β(355).

NASA Aerosol-Clouds-Ecosystems↗

Fuel utilization effects on system efficiency in solid oxide fuel cell gas turbine hybrid systems

Here, a computational analysis was conducted to optimize the design of a solid oxide fuel cell - gas turbine hybrid power generator, focusing on the impact that fuel utilization within the fuel cell has on system efficiency and installed costs. This is the first ever design-study considering the effect of fuel utilization on performance, as well as on the optimum power split. This hybrid system attained high electric generation efficiencies (>70%) over a wide range of operating conditions (60% < fuel utilization < 90%) while the fuel cell stack size decreased in proportion to decreasing the fuel utilization. A one-dimensional fuel cell model was used to simulate the fuel cell while GateCycle® was used to simulate the performance of the associated recuperated turbine and various subsystems necessary for thermal management. For each test case, the size of the solid oxide fuel cell, gas turbine, and recuperator, as well as the fuel and air flow rates, hot-air bypass set point, and heat exchange effectiveness in the solid oxide fuel cell manifold were varied to obtain 550 MWe output. In addition, anode recycle, turbomachinery efficiency, and various thermal management options were tested. The maximum system efficiency (75.6%) was attained for the single-pass solid oxide fuel cell with highly efficient turbomachinery when the solid oxide fuel cell used 80% of the incoming fuel. Efficiency was essentially flat from 75% fuel utilization through 85% fuel utilization. Employing anode recycle starting at 65% resulted in roughly 1 percentage point efficiency decrease for each percent increase in fuel utilization. For minimized solid oxide fuel cell degradation, a near 50:50 power split case was studied resulting in 68.6% efficiency and the solid oxide fuel cell using 55% of the incoming fuel. Because of shifting half of the power generation to the gas turbine, the size of the fuel cell stack was reduced by 25% as compared to that at maximum efficiency (80% fuel utilization).

42 ENGINEERING↗

Gradient-Descent-Based Learning Gain for Backstepping Controller and Disturbance Observer of Nonlinear Systems

This paper proposes a gradient-descent-based learning (GL) gain for backstepping controller and disturbance observer (DOB) of nonlinear system. The proposed method consists of the GL gain update law, controller, and DOB. The GL gain update law is proposed to adapt the control gain and DOB gain according to the direction that minimizes the cost function. The mathematical analysis reveals that the GL gain always has a positive sign and upper bound. The controller is designed via a backstepping procedure to track the desired output with GL control gain. The DOB is designed to estimate the unknown external disturbance with the GL DOB gain. Because the control and DOB gains are simultaneously tuned to achieve improved performance, the time consumption for tuning can be reduced. In addition, the peaking phenomenon can be avoided initially by a small initial value of GL gains. The stability of the closed-loop system is guaranteed using the input-to-state stability property. The performance of the proposed method was validated via simulations and experiments using a DC motor.

42 ENGINEERING↗

ResStock: Annual Baseline Results with Component Loads

The ResStock Analysis Tool was developed by NREL with support from the U.S. Department of Energy to provide a new approach to large-scale residential analysis by combining large public and private data sources, statistical sampling, detailed sub hourly building simulations, and high-performance computing. This combination achieves unprecedented granularity and accuracy in modeling the diversity of the housing stock and the distributional impacts of building technologies in different communities. The annual baseline energy results from a national-scale ResStock run use typical meteorological year 3 (TMY3) files for energy simulations. Results include heating and cooling loads for individual components of each building. Component loads describe the heating/cooling load that can be attributed to specific elements of a home, such as heat transfer through walls or internal gains. Additionally, these results include the standard ResStock outputs for housing characteristics and numerous energy outputs by end-use and fuel. A snapshot of the ResStock version used to produce this data, including a configuration file for the run can be found using the Source Code resource link.

Array↗

A new metrics framework for quantifying and intercomparing atmospheric rivers in observations, reanalyses, and climate models

We present a new atmospheric river (AR) analysis and benchmarking tool, namely Atmospheric River Metrics Package (ARMP). It includes a suite of new AR metrics that are designed for quick analysis of AR characteristics via statistics in gridded climate datasets such as model output and reanalysis. This package can be used for climate model evaluation in comparison with reanalysis and observational products. Integrated metrics such as mean bias and spatial pattern correlation are efficient for diagnosing systematic AR biases in climate models. For example, the package identifies the fact that, in CMIP5 and CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 5 and 6) models, AR tracks in the South Atlantic are positioned farther poleward compared to ERA5 reanalysis, while in the South Pacific, tracks are generally biased towards the Equator. For the landfalling AR peak season, we find that most climate models simulate a completely opposite seasonal cycle over western Africa. This tool can also be used for identifying and characterizing structural differences among different AR detectors (ARDTs). For example, ARs detected with the Mundhenk algorithm exhibit systematically larger size, width, and length compared to the TempestExtremes (TE) method. The AR metrics developed from this work can be routinely applied for model benchmarking and during the development cycle to trace performance evolution across model versions or generations and set objective targets for the improvement of models. They can also be used by operational centers to perform near-real-time climate and extreme event impact assessments as part of their forecast cycle.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A Study of the Impact of Variations on Aerodynamic Flow in Gas Turbine Engines via Monte-Carlo Simulations

The unsteady compressible inviscid flow is characterized by the conservations of mass, momentum, and energy; or simply the Euler equations. In this paper, a study of the subsonic one-dimensional Euler equations with local preconditioning is presented with a modal analysis approach. Specifically, this study investigates the behavior of airflow in a gas turbine engine using the specified conditions at the inflow and outflow boundaries of the compressor, combustion chamber, and turbine, under the impact of variations in pressure, velocity, temperature, and density at low Mach numbers. Two main questions that motivate this research are: 1) Is there any aerodynamic problem with the existing gas turbine engines that could impact aircraft performance? 2) If yes, what aspect of a gas turbine engine could be improved via design to alleviate that impact and to optimize aircraft performance. This paper presents an initial attempt to the flow behavior in terms (perturbation) using simulation outputs from a customer-deck model obtained from Pratt&Whitney, (i.e., pressure, temperature, velocity, density) about their mean states at the inflow and outflow boundaries of the compressor, combustion chamber, and turbine. Flow behavior is analyzed for the high pressure compressor and combustion chamber employing the conditions on their left and right boundaries. In the same fashion, similar analyses are carried out for the high and low-pressure turbines. In each case, the eigenfrequencies that are obtained for different boundary conditions are examined closely based on their probabilistic distributions, a result of a Monte Carlo 10,000-sample simulation. Furthermore, the characteristic waves and eave response are analyzed and contrasted among different cases, with and without preconditioners. The results reveal the existence of flow instabilities due to the combined effect of variations and excessive pressures; which are clearly the case in the combustion chamber and high-pressure turbine. Finally a discussion is presented on potential impacts of the instabilities and what can be improved via design to alleviate them for a better aircraft performance.

Ngo, Khiem Viet↗

Snowmass2021 Computational Frontier White Paper: Cosmological Simulations and Modeling

Powerful new observational facilities will come online over the next decade, enabling a number of discovery opportunities in the "Cosmic Frontier", which targets understanding of the physics of the early universe, dark matter and dark energy, and cosmological probes of fundamental physics, such as neutrino masses and modifications of Einstein gravity. Synergies between different experiments will be leveraged to present new classes of cosmic probes as well as to minimize systematic biases present in individual surveys. Success of this observational program requires actively pairing it with a well-matched state-of-the-art simulation and modeling effort. Next-generation cosmological modeling will increasingly focus on physically rich simulations able to model outputs of sky surveys spanning multiple wavebands. These simulations will have unprecedented resolution, volume coverage, and must deliver guaranteed high-fidelity results for individual surveys as well as for the cross-correlations across different surveys. The needed advances are as follows: (1) Development of scientifically rich and broadly-scoped simulations, which capture the relevant physics and correlations between probes (2) Accurate translation of simulation results into realistic image or spectral data to be directly compared with observations (3) Improved emulators and/or data-driven methods serving as surrogates for expensive simulations, constructed from a finite set of full-physics simulations (4) Detailed and transparent verification and validation programs for both simulations and analysis tools. (Abridged)

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Integrated Optimization and Control of a Hybrid Gas Turbine/sCO 2 Power System

During phase-I, the project team led by Echogen Power Systems (EPS) had two primary objectives based on investigating the application of gas turbines with supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO 2 ) power cycles. The first objective was to improve the overall efficiency and performance of a hybrid gas turbine/sCO 2 power system through a joint optimization of the two subsystems (gas turbine and sCO 2 power cycle) using non-linear optimization techniques that simultaneously evaluate thermal performance of the combined cycle. The hybrid power system included several points of interaction, including (but not limited to) gas turbine exhaust, fuel heating, inlet chilling and turbine cooling. The second objective was to establish a baseline transient response model of the hybrid power system and a notional microgrid and begin steps to integrate the control systems of the three major elements (gas turbine, sCO 2 cycle and grid controller). The project team established a baseline performance for a combined cycle power plant using a production gas turbine and scaled sCO 2 power cycle only utilizing exhaust heat recovery. Echogen’s non-linear techno-economic optimization code was extended by adding gas turbine component models derived from a in-house developed gas turbine design code. With the two cycles coupled by the gas turbine exhaust, design parameters of both cycles were allowed to vary simultaneously to determine performance opportunity versus isolated designs. Returning to the baseline gas turbine/sCO 2 power cycle transient models: Echogen had in-house developed sCO 2 cycle transient model in GT-Suite system simulation software, and had partnered with Siemens Finspång for gas turbine transient model, and Siemens PTI group to provide micro-grid load profile as well as hybrid power cycle generated load (power and frequency) analysis. The transient model for the SGT-750 Siemens gas turbine was a “black-box” functional mock-up interface (FMI) model developed by Siemens Industrial Turbomachinery in Finspång, Sweden. The SGT-750 is a twin-shaft gas turbine that produces 40 MW electricity with an efficiency of about 40% at ISO conditions. At 100% gas turbine throttle (load), the SGT-750 has average exhaust conditions of 114.6 kg/s and 469.8°C. The transient model for sCO 2 power cycle was developed by Echogen in GT-SUITE 1D system simulation software platform. The basic CO 2 flow circuit has single-shaft turbomachinery with net 11.5 MW electrical power output at design conditions. The power turbine has a double-ended shaft with one end connected to synchronous generator through a fixed-ratio gearbox. The other end of power turbine is connected to the compressor through a continuously variable transmission. The major components of the sCO 2 power cycle modeled include air cooled condenser/cooler, CO 2 compressor, recuperator, two waste heat exchanger coils, power turbine, continuous variable transmission, gearbox and generator. Integration of SGT-750 transient model and sCO 2 power cycle transient model was done in Matlab Simulink. In the integrated model, the gas turbine and sCO 2 power cycle interacted at two points, first one being the gas turbine exhaust gas flow rate and temperature, which were inputs to sCO 2 power cycle model. The second point was the distribution of micro-grid load demand signal between the SGT-750 generator and sCO 2 cycle generator. For a given combined-cycle load demand, the gas turbine load demand was equal to the total demand minus the sCO 2 cycle power generated. In the present study the integrated model was simulated for two cases of grid load demand: (i) for a step change, both positive-step and negative-step, in grid load demand (ii) for a micro-grid load demand curve provided by Siemens PTI group. Finally, the time series plots representing load demand versus integrated system response were presented including the sCO 2 power cycle control system performance plots. The actual generated power and frequency of both the generators, gas turbine and sCO 2 power cycle, was supplied to Siemens PTI group for dynamic grid assessment, results of which are provided in appendices.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

The GGCMI Phase 2 emulators: global gridded crop model responses to changes in CO 2 , temperature, water, and nitrogen (version 1.0)

Statistical emulation allows combining advantageous features of statistical and process-based crop models for understanding the effects of future climate changes on crop yields. We describe here the development of emulators for nine process-based crop models and five crops using output from the Global Gridded Model Intercomparison Project (GGCMI) Phase 2. The GGCMI Phase 2 experiment is designed with the explicit goal of producing a structured training dataset for emulator development that samples across four dimensions relevant to crop yields: atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, temperature, water supply, and nitrogen inputs (CTWN). Simulations are run under two different adaptation assumptions: that growing seasons shorten in warmer climates, and that cultivar choice allows growing seasons to remain fixed. The dataset allows emulating the climatological-mean yield response of all models with a simple polynomial in mean growing-season values. Climatological-mean yields are a central metric in climate change impact analysis; we show here that they can be captured without relying on interannual variations. In general, emulation errors are negligible relative to differences across crop models or even across climate model scenarios; errors become significant only in some marginal lands where crops are not currently grown. We demonstrate that the resulting GGCMI emulators can reproduce yields under realistic future climate simulations, even though the GGCMI Phase 2 dataset is constructed with uniform CTWN offsets, suggesting that the effects of changes in temperature and precipitation distributions are small relative to those of changing means. The resulting emulators therefore capture relevant crop model responses in a lightweight, computationally tractable form, providing a tool that can facilitate model comparison, diagnosis of interacting factors affecting yields, and integrated assessment of climate impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Experimental and synthetic measurements of polarized synchrotron emission from runaway electrons in Alcator C-Mod

This paper presents the first experimental analysis of polarized synchrotron emission from relativistic runaway electrons (REs) in a tokamak plasma. Importantly, we show that the polarization information of synchrotron radiation can be used to diagnose spatially-localized RE pitch angle distributions. Synchrotron-producing REs were generated during low density, Ohmic, diverted plasma discharges in the Alcator C-Mod tokamak. The ten-channel Motional Stark Effect diagnostic was used to measure spatial profiles of the polarization angle and the fraction of detected light that was linearly-polarized. Spatial transitions in the polarization angle of 90 degrees---from horizontal to vertical polarization and vice versa---are observed in experimental data and are well-explained by the gyro-motion of REs and high directionality of synchrotron radiation. Polarized synchrotron emission is modeled with the synthetic diagnostic SOFT; its output Green's (or detector response) functions reveal a critical RE pitch angle at which the polarization angle flips by 90 degrees and the polarization fraction is minimal. Using SOFT, we determine the dominant RE pitch angle which reproduces measured polarization angle and fraction values. The spatiotemporal evolutions of the polarization angle and fraction are explored in detail for one C-Mod discharge. For channels viewing REs near the magnetic axis and flux surfaces q = 1 and 4/3, disagreements between synthetic and experimental signals suggest that the sawtooth instability may be influencing RE dynamics. Furthermore, other sources of pitch angle scattering, not considered in this analysis, could help explain discrepancies between simulation and experiment.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

The GGCMI Phase 2 emulators: global gridded crop model responses to changes in CO2, temperature, water, and nitrogen (version 1.0)

Statistical emulation allows combining advantageous features of statistical and process-based crop models for understanding the effects of future climate changes on crop yields. We describe here the development of emulators for nine process-based crop models and five crops using output from the Global Gridded Model Intercomparison Project (GGCMI) Phase 2. The GGCMI Phase 2 experiment is designed with the explicit goal of producing a structured training dataset for emulator development that samples across four dimensions relevant to crop yields: atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, temperature, water supply, and nitrogen inputs (CTWN). Simulations are run under two different adaptation assumptions: that growing seasons shorten in warmer climates, and that cultivar choice allows growing seasons to remain fixed. The dataset allows emulating the climatological-mean yield response of all models with a simple polynomial in mean growing-season values. Climatological-mean yields are a central metric in climate change impact analysis; we show here that they can be captured without relying on interannual variations. In general, emulation errors are negligible relative to differences across crop models or even across climate model scenarios; errors become significant only in some marginal lands where crops are not currently grown. We demonstrate that the resulting GGCMI emulators can reproduce yields under realistic future climate simulations, even though the GGCMI Phase 2 dataset is constructed with uniform CTWN offsets, suggesting that the effects of changes in temperature and precipitation distributions are small relative to those of changing means. The resulting emulators therefore capture relevant crop model responses in a lightweight, computationally tractable form, providing a tool that can facilitate model comparison, diagnosis of interacting factors affecting yields, and integrated assessment of climate impacts.

James A Franke↗

Development of Control System Functional Capabilities within the IES Plug-and-Play Simulation Environment

The concept of an Integrated Energy System (IES) is meant to combine different energy technologies in synergistic ways to achieve a more secure and economical energy supply. The RAVEN-based HYBRID framework is used to find the optimal installed capacity and the optimal economical dispatch of each component of the IES. A new RAVEN (Risk Analysis Virtual ENvironment) plugin for grid and capacity optimization (HERON) has been developed for optimizing the production variables of the IES given the demand profile. Currently, only the limits that affect the production variables and their corresponding time rates of change are considered (explicit constraints). However, other variables are additionally subject to constraints, but the associated limits are not accounted for (implicit constraints). In particular, for the power dispatch problem, the optimization algorithm takes into account the limits on the electrical power output and the corresponding hourly power variations but does not consider other constraints on process variables whose response effects the service life of the IES. This report describes a scheme that allows accounting for implicit constraints without increasing the size of the optimization problem. The Reference Governor (RG) algorithm is traditionally used for enforcing state and control constraints by modifying the set-point trajectories supplied to the feedback regulators. In our application, the RG is coupled within an iterative loop with the HERON-power dispatcher to generate optimal trajectories that ensure the operational constraints are met. A data-driven procedure to derive a representation of the dynamics of the controlled system was developed. First, the variables that represented the state of the system are selected (PCA-based approach), and then state-space representation matrices are derived from the collected measurements (DMDc algorithm). A preliminary version of the developed workflow based on Linear Time Invariant matrices was assessed by adopting a two-unit test case. More sophisticated versions of this workflow foreseeing the on-line derivation of system matrices will be deployed in FY 2021. Finally, a “plug-and-play” library of controllers and state observers was developed in Dymola. Some aspects of the current configuration of the IES unit components, e.g., the encapsulation of the control schemes into dedicated blocks, are consistent with the “plug-and-play” philosophy. Other features, e.g., the system buses collecting the input and the output variables, are not. For this reason, once listed and described the limits of the current configuration, necessary modifications to the plant model interface are presented. As a test-case, the interfaces of the SES model in the RAVEN-based HYBRID framework were reworked accordingly, and two different control schemes were applied to the same plant model.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗