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NASA NTRS2013

Orion MPCV Touchdown Detection Threshold Development and Testing

A robust method of detecting Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) splashdown is necessary to ensure crew and hardware safety during descent and after touchdown. The proposed method uses a triple redundant system to inhibit Reaction Control System (RCS) thruster firings, detach parachute risers from the vehicle, and transition to the post-landing segment of the Flight Software (FSW). An in-depth trade study was completed to determine optimal characteristics of the touchdown detection method resulting in an algorithm monitoring filtered, lever-arm corrected, 200 Hz Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU) vehicle acceleration magnitude data against a tunable threshold using persistence counter logic. Following the design of the algorithm, high fidelity environment and vehicle simulations, coupled with the actual vehicle FSW, were used to tune the acceleration threshold and persistence counter value to result in adequate performance in detecting touchdown and sufficient safety margin against early detection while descending under parachutes. An analytical approach including Kriging and adaptive sampling allowed for a sufficient number of finite element analysis (FEA) impact simulations to be completed using minimal computation time. The combination of a persistence counter of 10 and an acceleration threshold of approximately 57.3 ft/s2 resulted in an impact performance factor of safety (FOS) of 1.0 and a safety FOS of approximately 2.6 for touchdown declaration. An RCS termination acceleration threshold of approximately 53.1 ft/s(exp)2 with a persistence counter of 10 resulted in an increased impact performance FOS of 1.2 at the expense of a lowered under-parachutes safety factor of 2.2. The resulting tuned algorithm was then tested on data from eight Capsule Parachute Assembly System (CPAS) flight tests, showing an experimental minimum safety FOS of 6.1. The formulated touchdown detection algorithm will be flown on the Orion MPCV FSW during the Exploration Flight Test 1 (EFT-1) mission in the second half of 2014.

Daum, Jared↗

NASA NTRS2014

Acoustics Research of Propulsion Systems

The liftoff phase induces some of the highest acoustic loading over a broad frequency for a launch vehicle. These external acoustic environments are used in the prediction of the internal vibration responses of the vehicle and components. Thus, predicting these liftoff acoustic environments is critical to the design requirements of any launch vehicle but there are challenges. Present liftoff vehicle acoustic environment prediction methods utilize stationary data from previously conducted hold-down tests; i.e. static firings conducted in the 1960's, to generate 1/3 octave band Sound Pressure Level (SPL) spectra. These data sets are used to predict the liftoff acoustic environments for launch vehicles. To facilitate the accuracy and quality of acoustic loading, predictions at liftoff for future launch vehicles such as the Space Launch System (SLS), non-stationary flight data from the Ares I-X were processed in PC-Signal in two forms which included a simulated hold-down phase and the entire launch phase. In conjunction, the Prediction of Acoustic Vehicle Environments (PAVE) program was developed in MATLAB to allow for efficient predictions of sound pressure levels (SPLs) as a function of station number along the vehicle using semiempirical methods. This consisted, initially, of generating the Dimensionless Spectrum Function (DSF) and Dimensionless Source Location (DSL) curves from the Ares I-X flight data. These are then used in the MATLAB program to generate the 1/3 octave band SPL spectra. Concluding results show major differences in SPLs between the hold-down test data and the processed Ares IX flight data making the Ares I-X flight data more practical for future vehicle acoustic environment predictions.

Gao, Ximing↗

DOE OSTI2024

EQSIM: Exascale Predictions of Earthquake Effects on Critical Infrastructure

The great “San Francisco” earthquake of 1906 is one of the most recognized, and sobering, demonstrations of the havoc that can be caused by the sudden and violent movement of Earth’s tectonic plates. The estimated 7.9-magnitude quake and subsequent fires decimated the major metropolis and surrounding areas: buildings turned to ruins, hundreds of thousands of people left homeless, and a death toll exceeding 3,000. Today, as evidenced by the catastrophic 7.8-magnitude earthquake that struck Turkey in February 2023, these events still present a significant danger to life and economic security. To mitigate the potential devastation of future earthquakes and better prepare for these inevitable events, researchers are turning to high-performance computers to simulate the underlying geophysical processes and accurately quantify associated risks to critical infrastructure.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS2008

Simulation and Analysis of Launch Teams (SALT)

A SALT effort was initiated in late 2005 with seed funding from the Office of Safety and Mission Assurance Human Factors organization. Its objectives included demonstrating human behavior and performance modeling and simulation technologies for launch team analysis, training, and evaluation. The goal of the research is to improve future NASA operations and training. The project employed an iterative approach, with the first iteration focusing on the last 70 minutes of a nominal-case Space Shuttle countdown, the second iteration focusing on aborts and launch commit criteria violations, the third iteration focusing on Ares I-X communications, and the fourth iteration focusing on Ares I-X Firing Room configurations. SALT applied new commercial off-the-shelf technologies from industry and the Department of Defense in the spaceport domain.

Source record↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Hyper-Spectral Infrared Remote Sensing for Wildfire-Related Research and Air Quality Monitoring

The National Airborne Sounder Testbed-Interferometer (NAST-I) is an airborne FTS remote sensor that nominally flies on NASA high-altitude aircraft to serve as a spaceborne instrument simulator. NAST-I continues to serve as a pathfinder for future satellite FTS systems and the next generation advanced atmospheric sounders in general. NAST-I provides high resolution spectrally resolved infrared radiances. NAST-I retrieval products characterizing the surface (i.e., skin temperature and spectral emissivity), atmosphere (i.e., profiles of temperature, moisture, ozone, carbon monoxide, and other trace species), and clouds (e.g., optical depth, particle size, temperature, and height) can be used to support fire-related monitoring and research. NAST-I provided 3-d characterizations of wildfire-induced plumes of CO during the FIREX-AQ field campaign (conducted during 2019) which showed the intensity and size evolution of wildfire plumes at high spatial and temporal resolutions. Wildfire-induced CO plumes, in conjunction with their evolution, transport, and age have been identified and recently published in scientific journals. Other research applications, such as surface emissivity changes due to fire burning of ground landscape, have been under investigation. These products could be used in support of wildfire management to better inform decision making and operations for pre-, active, and post-fire environments.

remote sensing↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Atmospheric Formaldehyde Trend and Its Source Attributions in the Recent Decades

Formaldehyde (CH 2 O) is one of the most important reactive trace gases in the atmosphere with an important role in tropospheric chemistry and in the control of surface air quality. Sources of CH 2 O includes direct emissions and in situ production from the oxidation of volatile organic compounds (VOCs). In this study, we investigate spatial-temporal variations in atmospheric CH 2 O and how changes in CH 2 O couple with tropospheric ozone variability during the past two decades using recently available retrievals from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) aboard NASA’s Aura satellite and the RefD1 simulation from the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry Climate Model (GEOSCCM). Our initial analysis provides evidence of significant increases in atmospheric CH 2 O concentrations over several of the world’s major anthropogenic regions, including China, India, and the Middle East, and several biomass burning regions, including South America, southern Africa, boreal regions and Indonesia. We furthermore will identify regional source contributions to CH 2 O trends, including anthropogenic VOCs emissions, biogenic isoprene emissions and open fires. In particular, we will focus on anthropogenic emission regions to examine the role of changing anthropogenic VOC emissions on CH 2 O abundance.

Atmospheric Formaldehyde↗

DOE OSTI2019

Preliminary Logistics Modeling of the Integrated Wash Aid Treatment Emergency Reuse System - 19495

We employed Analysis of Mobility Platform (AMP) and GoldSim software to model the logistics of deploying materials to implement the Integrated Wash Aid Treatment Emergency Reuse System (IWATERS) in a hypothetical cesium-contamination scenario covering a four-block strip of downtown Chicago, IL. In this deployment of IWATERS, buildings were washed down via fire-hosing and contaminated wash solution was collected in the city's waste/stormwater collection system. The contaminated wash water was treated to remove Cs via ad hoc sand/clay filtration beds, and the treated wash solution was recycled during continuing decontamination operations. A detailed task timeline for the IWATERS deployment and information (or assumptions) on the availability and location of required resources for operations provided input parameters, as well as a framework, to enable the AMP and GoldSim simulations. From the decision to deploy IWATERS to the end of operations, including the completion of processing all contaminated wash water, took 49 days with decontamination teams active for 35 days and treatment bed teams active for 37 days. The modeling results showed the availability of vermiculite clay (based on data supplied by its commercial vendors/distributors) as the limiting factor for deploying treatment bed teams and, consequentially, the recycling rate of wash water and the timeline for decontamination operations. These simulations represent the first attempt at understanding the material and personnel requirements for large-scale IWATERS operation. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

NASA NTRS2007

Performance Testing of Lithium Li-ion Cells and Batteries in Support of JPL's 2003 Mars Exploration Rover Mission

In early 2004, JPL successfully landed two Rovers, named Spirit and Opportunity, on the surface of Mars after traveling > 300 million miles over a 6-7 month period. In order to operate for extended duration on the surface of Mars, both Rovers are equipped with rechargeable Lithium-ion batteries, which were designed to aid in the launch, correct anomalies during cruise, and support surface operations in conjunction with a triple-junction deployable solar arrays. The requirements of the Lithium-ion battery include the ability to provide power at least 90 sols on the surface of Mars, operate over a wide temperature range (-20(super 0)C to +40(super 0)C), withstand long storage periods (e.g., including pre-launch and cruise period), operate in an inverted position, and support high currents (e.g., firing pyro events). In order to determine the inability of meeting these requirements, ground testing was performed on a Rover Battery Assembly Unit RBAU), consisting of two 8-cell 8 Ah lithium-ion batteries connected in parallel. The RBAU upon which the performance testing was performed is nearly identical to the batteries incorporated into the two Rovers currently on Mars. The primary focus of this paper is to communicate the latest results regarding Mars surface operation mission simulation testing, as well as, the corresponding performance capacity loss and impedance characteristics as a function of temperature and life. As will be discussed, the lithium-ion batteries (fabricated by Yardney Technical Products, Inc.) have been demonstrated to far exceed the requirements defined by the mission, being able to support the operation of the rovers for over three years, and are projected to support an even further extended mission.

low temperature electrolytes↗

NASA NTRS2016

Liquid Oxygen/Liquid Methane Integrated Power and Propulsion

The proposed paper will cover ongoing work at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Johnson Space Center (JSC) on integrated power and propulsion for advanced human exploration. Specifically, it will present findings of the integrated design, testing, and operational challenges of a liquid oxygen / liquid methane (LOx/LCH4) propulsion brassboard and Solid Oxide Fuel Cell (SOFC) system. Human-Mars architectures point to an oxygen-methane economy utilizing common commodities, scavenged from the planetary atmosphere and soil via In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU), and common commodities across sub-systems. Due to the enormous mass gear-ratio required for human exploration beyond low-earth orbit, (for every 1 kg of payload landed on Mars, 226 kg will be required on Earth) increasing commonality between spacecraft subsystems such as power and propulsion can result in tremendous launch mass and volume savings. Historically, propulsion and fuel cell power subsystems have had little interaction outside of the generation (fuel cell) and consumption (propulsion) of electrical power. This was largely due to a mismatch in preferred commodities (hypergolics for propulsion; oxygen & hydrogen for fuel cells). Although this stove-piped approach benefits from simplicity in the design process, it means each subsystem has its own tanks, pressurization system, fluid feed system, etc. increasing overall spacecraft mass and volume. A liquid oxygen / liquid methane commodities architecture across propulsion and power subsystems would enable the use of common tankage and associated pressurization and commodity delivery hardware for both. Furthermore, a spacecraft utilizing integrated power and propulsion could use propellant residuals - propellant which could not be expelled from the tank near depletion due to hydrodynamic considerations caused by large flow demands of a rocket engine - to generate power after all propulsive maneuvers are complete thus utilizing previously wasted mass. Such is the case for human and robotic planetary landers. Although many potential benefits through integrated power & propulsion exist, integrated operations have yet to be successfully demonstrated and many challenges have already been identified the most obvious of which is the large temperature gradient. SOFC chemistry is exothermic with operating temperatures in excess of 1,000 K; however, any shared commodities will be undoubtedly stored at cryogenic temperatures (90-112 K) for mass efficiency reasons. Spacecraft packaging will drive these two subsystems in close proximity thus heat leak into the commodity tankage must be minimized and/or mitigated. Furthermore, commodities must be gasified prior to consumption by the SOFC. Excess heat generated by the SOFC could be used to perform this phase change; however, this has yet to be demonstrated. A further identified challenge is the ability of the SOFC to handle the sudden power spikes created by the propulsion system. A power accumulator (battery) will likely be necessary to handle these sudden demands while the SOFC thermally adjusts. JSC's current SOFC test system consists of a 1 kW fuel cell designed by Delphi. The fuel cell is currently undergoing characterization testing at the NASA JSC Energy Systems Test Area (ESTA) after which a Steam Methane Reformer (SMR) will be integrated and the combined system tested in closed-loop. The propulsion brassboard is approximately the size of what could be flown on a sounding rocket. It consists of one 100 lbf thrust "main" engine developed for NASA by Aerojet and two 10 lbf thrusters to simulate a reaction control system developed at NASA JSC. This system is also under development and initial testing at ESTA. After initial testing, combined testing will occur which will provide data on the fuel cell's ability to sufficiently handle the power spikes created by the propulsion system. These two systems will also be modeled using General-Use Nodal Network Solver (GUNNS) software. Once anchored with test data, this model will be used to extrapolate onto other firing profiles and used to size the power accumulator.

Banker, Brian↗

NASA NTRS1984

An attitude reorientation algorithm for the Galileo spacecraft

This paper presents an onboard closed loop attitude reorientation algorithm for a dual-spin spacecraft, Galileo. The basic concept for the design uses the despun stator as a reference and fires a sequence of fixed duration thruster pulses to precess the angular momentum vector to its commanded orientation. The error signals used to despin the stator and to perform the turn are derived from the stator error quaternion which is computed using gyro outputs. Constraints considered in the design include gyro rate saturation, plume impingement effects, system parameter variations, as well as software reliability and flexibility. The performance of the algorithm was predicted by analysis and confirmed by computer simulation results. It was concluded that a reorientation accuracy of better than 1 milliradian with a nutation angle of less than 1 degree during the turn can be achieved.

Lin, H.-S.↗

NASA NTRS1990

The radiation budget of stratocumulus clouds measured by tethered balloon instrumentation: Variability of flux measurements

Measurements of longwave and shortwave radiation were made using an instrument package on the NASA tethered balloon during the FIRE Marine Stratocumulus experiment. Radiation data from two pairs of pyranometers were used to obtain vertical profiles of the near-infrared and total solar fluxes through the boundary layer, while a pair of pyrgeometers supplied measurements of the longwave fluxes in the cloud layer. The radiation observations were analyzed to determine heating rates and to measure the radiative energy budget inside the stratocumulus clouds during several tethered balloon flights. The radiation fields in the cloud layer were also simulated by a two-stream radiative transfer model, which used cloud optical properties derived from microphysical measurements and Mie scattering theory.

Duda, David P.↗

NASA NTRS2000

BOREAS AFM-12 1-km AVHRR Seasonal Land Cover Classification

The Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study (BOREAS) Airborne Fluxes and Meteorology (AFM)-12 team's efforts focused on regional scale Surface Vegetation and Atmosphere (SVAT) modeling to improve parameterization of the heterogeneous BOREAS landscape for use in larger scale Global Circulation Models (GCMs). This regional land cover data set was developed as part of a multitemporal one-kilometer Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) land cover analysis approach that was used as the basis for regional land cover mapping, fire disturbance-regeneration, and multiresolution land cover scaling studies in the boreal forest ecosystem of central Canada. This land cover classification was derived by using regional field observations from ground and low-level aircraft transits to analyze spectral-temporal clusters that were derived from an unsupervised cluster analysis of monthly Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) image composites (April-September 1992). This regional data set was developed for use by BOREAS investigators, especially those involved in simulation modeling, remote sensing algorithm development, and aircraft flux studies. Based on regional field data verification, this multitemporal one-kilometer AVHRR land cover mapping approach was effective in characterizing the biome-level land cover structure, embedded spatially heterogeneous landscape patterns, and other types of key land cover information of interest to BOREAS modelers.The land cover mosaics in this classification include: (1) wet conifer mosaic (low, medium, and high tree stand density), (2) mixed coniferous-deciduous forest (80% coniferous, codominant, and 80% deciduous), (3) recent visible bum, vegetation regeneration, or rock outcrops-bare ground-sparsely vegetated slow regeneration bum (four classes), (4) open water and grassland marshes, and (5) general agricultural land use/ grasslands (three classes). This land cover mapping approach did not detect small subpixel-scale landscape features such as fens, bogs, and small water bodies. Field observations and comparisons with Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) suggest a minimum effective resolution of these land cover classes in the range of three to four kilometers, in part, because of the daily to monthly compositing process. In general, potential accuracy limitations are mitigated by the use of conservative parameterization rules such as aggregation of predominant land cover classes within minimum horizontal grid cell sizes of ten kilometers. The AFM-12 one-kilometer AVHRR seasonal land cover classification data are available from the Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC). The data files are available on a CD-ROM (see document number 20010000884).

Steyaert, Lou↗

NASA NTRS2011

Crush Test Abuse Stand

The purpose of this system is to simulate an internal short on battery cells by causing deformation (a crushing force) in a cell without penetration. This is performed by activating a hydraulic cylinder on one side of a blast wall with a hydraulic pump located on the other. The operator can control the rate of the crush by monitoring a local pressure gauge connected to the hydraulic cylinder or a load cell digital display located at the hydraulic pump control area. The internal short simulated would be considered a worst-case scenario of a manufacturer fs defect. This is a catastrophic failure of a cell and could be a very destructive event. Fully charged cells are to have an internal short simulated at the center of the length of the cell (away from terminals). The crush can be performed with a .- to 1-in. (.0.6- to 2.5-cm) rod placed crossways to the cell axis, causing deformation of the cell without penetration. The OCV (open-circuit voltage) and temperature of the cells, as well as the pressure and crushing force, are recorded during the operation. Occurrence of an internal short accompanied by any visible physical changes such as venting, fires, or explosions is reported. Typical analytical data examined after the test would be plots of voltage, temperature, and pressure or force versus time. The rate of crushing force can be increased or decreased based on how fast the operator pumps the hydraulic pump. The size of cylinder used to compress the battery cell can be easily changed by adding larger or smaller fittings onto the end of the hydraulic cylinder based on the battery/cell size being tested. The cell is crushed remotely and videotaped, allowing the operator to closely monitor the situation from a safe distance.

Collins, Jacob↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Dark Target aerosol retrieval algorithm applied to Low Earth Orbit and GEOstationary imagers: progress towards an integrated LEO-GEO view of global aerosol

The relatively simple dark-target (DT) aerosol retrieval algorithm provides products of spectral aerosol optical depth (AOD) from measurements of multi-spectral reflectance in visible, near-infrared and shortwave infrared wavelength bands. Originally developed for Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS aboard Terra and Aqua) in Low-Earth Orbit (LEO), DT has been ported to Visible Infrared Imaging Suite (VIIRS aboard Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20, also in LEO), to enhanced-MODIS Airborne Simulator (eMAS, on an airborne platform), and now to sensors in GEOstationary orbit (Advanced Himawari Imager - AHI aboard Himawari-8 and Advanced Baseline Imagers – ABI aboard GOES-16 and 17). Together, these new datasets not only extend upon the 20+ year MODIS aerosol record, but also expand the temporal sampling and/or spatial resolution. Between July and October of 2019, NASA participated in two field experiments on opposite sides of the globe. These included FIREX-AQ which focused on fire and smoke in the Western U.S., and then CAMP2EX which targeted aerosol/cloud interactions around the Philippines. We have performed DT aerosol retrievals on all images from all sensors during these three months, validated against ground observations from stationary and mobile sunphotometer sites, and have begun to develop a synergy that represents semi-global observations every half hour. The resulting aerosol products are being used as context and for model assimilation, thus providing the framework for more complete characterization of global aerosol transport and lifecycle. Here, we report on progress, as well as remaining challenges such as data management, computer processing, and accounting for differences between GEO and LEO observation geometry and surface reflectance parameterization.

dark target↗

NASA NTRS2006

Processes Influencing Ozone Levels in Alaskan Forest Fires Plumes during Long-Range Transport over the North Atlantic

A case of long-range transport of a biomass burning plume from Alaska to Europe is analyzed using a Lagrangian approach. This plume was sampled several times in the free troposphere over North America, the North Atlantic and Europe by 3 different aircraft during the IGAC Lagrangian 2K4 experiment which was part of the ICARTT/ITOP measurement intensive in summer 2004. Measurements in the plume showed enhanced values of CO, VOCs and NOy, mainly in form of PAN. Observed O3 levels increased by 17 ppbv over 5 days. A photochemical trajectory model, CiTTyCAT, is used to examine processes responsible for the chemical evolution of the plume. The model was initialized with upwind data, and compared with downwind measurements. The influence of high aerosol loading on photolysis rates in the plume is investigated using in-situ aerosol measurements in the plume and lidar retrievals of optical depth as input into a photolysis code (Fast-J), run in the model. Significant impacts on photochemistry are found with a decrease of 18 percent in O3 production and 24 percent in O3 destruction over 5 days when including aerosols. The plume is found to be chemically active with large O3 increases attributed primarily to PAN decomposition during descent of the plume towards Europe. The predicted O3 changes are very dependent on temperature changes during transport, and also, on water vapor levels in the lower troposphere which can lead to O3 destruction. Simulation of mixing/dilution was necessary to reproduce observed pollutants level in the plume. Mixing was simulated using background concentrations from measurements in air masses in close proximity to the plume, and mixing timescales (averaging 6.25 days) were derived from CO changes. Observed and simulated O3/CO correlations in the plume are also compared in order to evaluate the photochemistry in the model. Observed slopes changed from negative to positive over 5 days. This change, which can be attributed largely to photochemistry, is well reproduced by multiple model runs even if slope values are slightly underestimated suggesting small underestimation of photochemical processes. The possible impact of this biomass burning plume on O3 levels in the Europe boundary layer is also examined by running the model for a further 5 days, and comparing with data collected at surface sites, such as Jungfraujoch, which showed small O3 increases and elevated CO levels. The model predicts significant changes in O3 over this 10 days due to photochemistry but the signal is largely lost due to the effects of dilution. However, measurement in several others BB plumes over Europe show that O3 impact of Alaskan fires can be punctually significant over Europe.

Real, E.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Using AI to build a hydrobiogeochemical soil model

Soil water content is a function of inputs from precipitation and outputs via evaporation, transpiration, lateral flow, and vertical percolation, and is sensitive to biogeochemical processes. As such, soils serve as an ideal integrator of atmospheric, hydrological, and biogeochemical processes affecting the water cycle. In addition, soil water retention capacity, infiltration rates, and hydraulic conductivity can buffer or exacerbate the effects of extreme precipitation events (e.g., flooding, runoff, subsurface transport, erosion, greenhouse gas emissions) and mitigate the impact of droughts and heat waves on land systems (e.g., fire, crop failure). However, integrating water cycle measurements spanning different land atmosphere compartments across scales is a fundamental barrier for numerical model predictability. A significant challenge is that each domain (soil, hydrology, biology, and atmosphere) typically collects different sets of data at different temporal and spatial frequencies/scales, and even different dimensionalities (2D vs 3D). To implement soil as an integrator of the water cycle in land models, we suggest that novel machine learning (ML) tools can be developed to effectively simulate complex landscapes across various domains and scales, extended to regions with sparse or no data. The ultimate goals are to improve predictive understanding of land-atmosphere interactions and to extend the predictability of current Earth System Models (ESMs) through better integration of hydrological and biogeochemical data. We envision a framework in which: (1) ML-aided data reconstructions enable the merger of data sources into a unified geospatial product; (2) automated detection techniques are used to improve the knowledge of complex soil processes and interactions; and (3) this knowledge is leveraged and incorporated into models through AI-based emulators to distinctly connect the land and atmospheric compartments of the water cycle in models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Climate impact of a regional nuclear weapons exchange: An improved assessment based on detailed source calculations

In this paper, we present a multi-scale study examining the impact of a regional exchange of nuclear weapons on global climate. Our models investigate multiple phases of the effects of nuclear weapons usage, including growth and rise of the nuclear fireball, ignition and spread of the induced firestorm, and comprehensive Earth system modeling of the oceans, land, ice, and atmosphere. This study follows from the scenario originally envisioned by Robock et al. (2007a), based on the analysis of Toon et al. (2007), which assumes a regional exchange between India and Pakistan of fifty 15-kiloton weapons detonated by each side. We expand this scenario by modeling the processes that lead to production of black carbon, in order to refine the black carbon forcing estimates of these previous studies. When the Earth system model is initiated with 5 × 10 9 kg of black carbon in the upper troposphere (approximately 9 to 13 km), the impact on climate variables such as global temperature and precipitation in our simulations is similar to that predicted by previously published work. However, while our thorough simulations of the firestorm produce about 3.7 × 10 9 kg of black carbon, we find that the vast majority of the black carbon never reaches an altitude above weather systems (approximately 12 km). Therefore, our Earth system model simulations conducted with model-informed atmospheric distributions of black carbon produce significantly lower global climatic impacts than assessed in prior studies, as the carbon at lower altitudes is more quickly removed from the atmosphere. In addition, our model ensembles indicate that statistically significant effects on global surface temperatures are limited to the first 5 years and are much smaller in magnitude than those shown in earlier works. None of the simulations produced a nuclear winter effect. We find that the effects on global surface temperatures are not uniform and are concentrated primarily around the highest arctic latitudes, dramatically reducing the global impact on human health and agriculture compared with that reported by earlier studies. Lastly, our analysis demonstrates that the probability of significant global cooling from a limited exchange scenario as envisioned in the previous studies is highly unlikely, a conclusion supported by examination of natural analogs, such as large forest fires and volcanic eruptions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1983

Linear and Nonlinear Aspects of Rotordynamics

Excessive vibrations of the liquid oxygen pump in the Space Shuttle's Main Engine have been recorded during hot firing ground testing. In order to determine mathematical explanations of this possibility, destructive phenomenon differential equations have been examined which describe the rotordynamics of the pump. Modeling the rotor as a random eigenvalue problem was considered. Analytical expressions were derived for the solution in the case of symmetric damping and stiffness. This enables one to determine accuracy estimates when testing numerical techniques to solve both asymmetric and nonlinear problems. Finally, the rotor model has had nonlinear elements incorporated to improve its simulation of the pump and to expand the corresponding mathematical theory.

Day, W. B.↗