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At least 1,135 records · Page 63

A New Atmosphere-Ocean Model for Studying Air-Sea Interactions and Coupled Data Assimilation

During the last two plus decades, The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) and Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) modeling groups have developed, respectively, atmosphere-only and ocean-only global general circulation models. These two models (GEOS and MITgcm) have demonstrated their data assimilation capabilities with the recent releases of the Modern Era Reanalysis for Research Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) atmospheric reanalysis and the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean, Version 4 (ECCO-v4) ocean (and sea ice) state estimate. Independently, the two modeling groups have also produced global atmosphere-only and ocean-only simulations with km-scale grid spacing which proved invaluable for process studies and for the development of satellite and in-situ sampling strategies.Recently, a new effort has been made to couple these two models and to leverage their data-assimilation and high resolution capabilities (i.e., eddy-permitting ocean, cloud-permitting atmosphere). The focus in the model development is put on sub-seasonal to decadal time scales. In this talk, I discuss the new coupled model and present some first coupled simulation results. This will include a high-resolution coupled GEOS-MIT simulation, whereby we have coupled a cubed-sphere-720 (~ 1/8°) configuration of the GEOS atmosphere to a lat-lon-cap-1080 (~ 1/12°) configuration of the MIT ocean. We compare near-surface diagnostics of this fully coupled ocean-atmosphere set-up to equivalent atmosphere-only and ocean-only simulations. In the comparisons we focus in particular on the differences in air-sea interactions between sea surface temperature (SST) and wind for the coupled and uncoupled simulations.

Strobach, Ehud↗

The Development of the New GEOS-MITgcm Atmosphere-Ocean Model for Coupled Data Assimilation System

During the last two plus decades, The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) and Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) modeling groups have developed, respectively, atmosphere-only and ocean-only global general circulation models. These two models (GEOS and MITgcm) have demonstrated their data assimilation capabilities with the recent releases of the Modern Era Reanalysis for Research Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) atmospheric reanalysis and the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean, Version 4 (ECCO-v4) ocean (and sea ice) state estimate. Independently, the two modeling groups have also produced global atmosphere-only and ocean-only simulations with km-scale grid spacing which proved invaluable for process studies and for the development of satellite and in-situ sampling strategies.Recently, a new effort has been made to couple these two models and to leverage their data-assimilation and high resolution capabilities (i.e., eddy-permitting ocean, cloud-permitting atmosphere). The focus in the model development is put on sub-seasonal to decadal time scales. In this talk, I discuss the new coupled model and present some first coupled simulation results. This will include a high-resolution coupled GEOS-MIT simulation, whereby we have coupled a cubed-sphere-720 (~ 1/8°) configuration of the GEOS atmosphere to a lat-lon-cap-1080 (~ 1/12°) configuration of the MIT ocean. We compare near-surface diagnostics of this fully coupled ocean-atmosphere set-up to equivalent atmosphere-only and ocean-only simulations. In the comparisons we focus in particular on the differences in air-sea interactions between sea surface temperature (SST) and wind for the coupled and uncoupled simulations.

Strobach, Ehud↗

Development of the GEOS-MIT gcm Atmosphere-Ocean Model for Coupled Data Assimilation

During the last two plus decades, The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) and Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) modeling groups have developed, respectively, atmosphere-only and ocean-only global general circulation models. These two models (GEOS and MIT-GCM (General Circulation Model)) have demonstrated their data assimilation capabilities with the recent releases of the Modern Era Reanalysis for Research Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) atmospheric reanalysis and the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean, Version 4 (ECCO-v4) ocean (and sea ice) state estimate. Independently, the two modeling groups have also produced global atmosphere-only and ocean-only simulations with km-scale grid spacing which proved invaluable for process studies and for the development of satellite and in-situ sampling strategies. Recently, a new effort has been made to couple these two models and to leverage their data-assimilation and high resolution capabilities (i.e., eddy-permitting ocean, cloud-permitting atmosphere). The focus in the model development is put on sub-seasonal to decadal time scales. In this talk, I discuss the new coupled model and present some first coupled simulation results. This will include a high-resolution coupled GEOS-MIT simulation, whereby we have coupled a cubed-sphere-720 (approximately 1/8 degrees) configuration of the GEOS atmosphere to a latitude-longitude-cap-1080 (approximately 1/12 degrees) configuration of the MIT ocean. We compare near-surface diagnostics of this fully coupled ocean-atmosphere set-up to equivalent atmosphere-only and ocean-only simulations. In the comparisons we focus in particular on the differences in air-sea interactions between sea surface temperature (SST) and wind for the coupled and uncoupled simulations.

Strobach, Ehud↗

A Scalable PDC Placement Technique for Fast and Resilient Monitoring of Large Power Grids

The wide-area measurement system (WAMS) is a key enabler of real-time monitoring of power grids. The essential goals of WAMS design are fast and resilient data transfer from phasor measurement units (PMU) to phasor data concentrators (PDC). We propose a scalable two-stage PDC placement technique for minimizing the end-to-end delay while maintaining resiliency. In the prescreening stage, the plausible candidates of PDC configurations are identified based on a graph theory-based multi-median function (MMF). Here, in this article, a computationally efficient meta-heuristic algorithm is used to address scalability. In the candidate selection stage, two different algorithms, namely, Suurballe's and Dijkstra's, are employed to identify the best of those plausible PDC configurations as the final design. This technique not only minimizes the hop paths between PMUs and PDCs, but also ensures network resiliency against single PMU, PDC, or communication link failure by incorporating the roles of PMUs in power grid observability into routing policy. Simulation results on the IEEE 57-bus test power system and the 2000-bus test power system demonstrate the effectiveness and scalability of the proposed technique.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Evaluating Contemporary and Future-Scenario Substantial-Precipitation Events in the Missouri River Basin Using Object-Oriented Analysis

The Missouri River Basin is the largest single river basin in the United States, and, as such, it plays an important role in natural ecosystems as well as the country’s economy, through agriculture, hydroelectric power generation, and transportation. Episodes of heavy precipitation can have a substantial negative impact on all these aspects of the basin, so understanding how well these episodes are simulated and projected to change in the future climate is important. We analyzed contemporary and projected mid-century behavior of heavy-precipitation episodes using an object-oriented analysis to diagnose short-term (≥5-day) and extended-period (≥30-day) events with substantial precipitation, using PRISM gridded, observed precipitation and RegCM4 regional-climate simulations that used outputs from two different GCMs for boundary conditions. The simulations were produced for the North American portion of the CORDEX program. A 25 km grid was used for the simulations and for aggregated PRISM precipitation. Overall, the simulated contemporary-climate events compared favorably with the PRISM events’ frequency and duration. The simulated event areas tended to be larger than the areas in the PRISM events, suggesting that the effective resolution of the simulations is greater than 25 km. Event areas and durations change little going from contemporary to scenario climate. The short-term events increase in frequency by an amount commensurate with the increase in mean precipitation simulated for the basis. However, the extended-term events showed little change in frequency, despite the average precipitation increase. Roughly half the extended-period events overlapped with at least one short-term event in both the observations and the simulations. Extended-period events that overlap a short-term event generally have larger areas and longer durations compared to their counterparts with no overlapping short-term events. Understanding the climate dynamics yielding the two types of extended-period events could be useful for assessing future changes in the Missouri River Basin’s heavy precipitation events and their impact.

Fisel, Brandon J.↗

Gaussian integral method for void fraction

Here, a novel method, the Gaussian Integral Method (GIM), is presented for calculating void fractions in Computational Fluid Dynamics–Discrete Element Method (CFD-DEM) simulations. GIM is versatile and applicable to various grid types, including structured and unstructured polyhedral meshes, without requiring special boundary treatments. An optimization technique is introduced to make GIM independent of grid resolution and type. The method is validated against experimental data from a fluidized bed, demonstrating that GIM produces realistic simulations closely resembling experimental observations. Additionally, unstructured polyhedral grids using GIM outperform structured grids of equivalent resolution, yielding results more aligned with experimental data. The gradient of the void fraction is computed in the CFD solver and utilized in the DEM solver for precise estimation at particle locations. Overall, GIM provides an effective solution for void fraction calculations in particulate media simulations with complex geometries, enhancing the accuracy and applicability of CFD-DEM simulations for industrial processes.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Requirements for Large Eddy Simulation Computations of Variable-Speed Power Turbine Flows

Variable-speed power turbines (VSPTs) operate at low Reynolds numbers and with a wide range of incidence angles. Transition, separation, and the relevant physics leading to them are important to VSPT flow. Higher fidelity tools such as large eddy simulation (LES) may be needed to resolve the flow features necessary for accurate predictive capability and design of such turbines. A survey conducted for this report explores the requirements for such computations. The survey is limited to the simulation of two-dimensional flow cases and endwalls are not included. It suggests that a grid resolution necessary for this type of simulation to accurately represent the physics may be of the order of Delta(x)+=45, Delta(x)+ =2 and Delta(z)+=17. Various subgrid-scale (SGS) models have been used and except for the Smagorinsky model, all seem to perform well and in some instances the simulations worked well without SGS modeling. A method of specifying the inlet conditions such as synthetic eddy modeling (SEM) is necessary to correctly represent the inlet conditions.

Grid↗

Magnetic field extraction of trap-based electron beams using a high-permeability grid

A method to form high quality electrostatically guided lepton beams is explored. Test electron beams are extracted from tailored plasmas confined in a Penning-Malmberg trap. The particles are then extracted from the confining axial magnetic field by passing them through a high magnetic permeability grid with radial tines (a so-called “magnetic spider”). An Einzel lens is used to focus and analyze the beam properties. Numerical simulations are used to model non-adiabatic effects due to the spider, and the predictions are compared with the experimental results. Improvements in beam quality are discussed relative to the use of a hole in a high permeability shield (i.e., in lieu of the spider), and areas for further improvement are described.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A Participation Factor-Based Approach for Defining the EMT Model Boundary for Power System Simulations with Inverter-Based Resources

The increasing penetration of inverter-based resources (IBRs) introduces new challenges to power system simulations, particularly with the emergence of fast electromagnetic transient (EMT) dynamics and sub-synchronous oscillations (SSO) that require time-consuming EMT simulations. To reduce the time cost for simulating a large-scale power grid with IBRs, this paper proposes a novel participation factor-based approach for defining a critical zone for detailed EMT modeling and simulations, which includes the IBRs, synchronous generators, and the network components participating significantly in simulated contingencies. Both model-based and response-based methods are introduced for the estimation of participation factors (PFs). The case study on the 240-bus Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) system demonstrates that the EMT zone determined by the proposed approach can effectively capture power system dynamics involving IBRs.

EMT simulation↗

Sketch-to-Solution: A Case Study in RCS Aerodynamic Interaction

Thanks to recent advances in the fields of anisotropic grid adaptation, error estimation, and geometry modeling, a sketch-to-solution work flow is now possible for viscous computational fluid dynamic (CFD) simulations. With this workflow, a CFD application engineer provides geometry, boundary conditions, and flow parameters; and the sketch-to-solution process yields a CFD simulation through automatic, error-based, grid adaptation. To explore the benefits of this nascent capability, a conventional manual grid generation work flow is compared to this new automatic grid generation work flow for a given engineering question: What are the aerodynamic interactions caused by the reaction control system (RCS) on an entry vehicle? This case study indicates that while the automatic grid generation sketch-to- solution process is not yet mature, it is preferred over a manual grid generation work flow because it greatly reduces manual labor, eliminates many opportunities for human error, and provides grid sensitivity information.

Bill Kleb↗

An Advanced Synchronized Time Digital Grid Twin Testbed for Relay Misoperation Analysis of Electrical Fault Type Detection Algorithms

Distributed energy resources and the number of relays are expected to rise in modern electrical grids; consequently, relay misoperations are also expected to grow. Relays can detect electrical fault types using an internal algorithm and can display the result using light indicators on the front of the relay. However, some relays’ internal algorithms for predicting types of electrical faults could be improved. This study assesses a relay’s external and internal algorithms with an Advanced Synchronized Time Digital Grid Twin (ASTDGT) testbed with paired relays. A misoperation relay analysis focused on measuring the accuracy of using the boundary admittance (the external algorithm) versus the set-default (the internal algorithm) relay method to determine the electrical fault types was performed. In this study, the internal and external relay algorithms were assessed with a synchronized time digital grid twin testbed using a real-time simulator. This testbed evaluated two sets of logic at the same time with the digital grid twin and paired relays in the loop. Different types of electrical faults were simulated, and the relays’ recorded events and electrical fault light indicator states were collected from the human–machine interfaces. This ASTDGT testbed with paired relays successfully evaluated the relay algorithm misoperations. The boundary admittance method had an accuracy of 100% for line-to-line, line-to-ground, and line-to-line ground faults.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Progressing Analysis of Variable Electric Rates (PAVER) Study

The Progressing Analysis of Variable Electric Rates (PAVER) study analyzed the impact of a range of time-varying electric rates on the performance of a regional electric grid and the resulting costs for participating and non-participating customers. This analysis leveraged and extended the work of PNNL’s Distribution System Operator with Transactive (DSO+T) study. Five different rate designs were included: a flat volumetric energy charge, a typical Time of Use (TOU) rate, a dynamic energy (DE) rate (based on wholesale locational marginal prices), a dynamic energy and capacity (DE+C) rate, and, finally, a Block and Swing (B&S) rate that billed customers based on their average load profile at constant pricing, but used the DE+C dynamic price for load deviations from their average profile. These rates were analyzed in a large-scale co-simulation of an entire regional grid with a customer population representative of the current state. A large fraction (80%) of residential and commercial customers were assumed to participate in these time-varying rates with automatically controlled HVAC, water heaters, electric vehicles, and batteries. This study assumed no industrial sector participation. The DE and DE+C rates saw system peak loads reduced by 6-7%, while the large participation in the TOU rate case saw a significant rebound effect and a resulting peak load increase of >5%. The impacts to the annual and peak system demand impacted system wholesale prices and the overall grid operating costs. This cost structure determined the revenue needed to be collected from customers by each rate design. Participating customers on the DE and DE+C rates (located in one of the modeled DSOs) saw reductions in average annual electricity bills of 11-17% with average increases in monthly bill variation of no more than 13%. At such high participation levels, TOU customers saw 10% higher average annual bills (due to system-wide rebound effects) and average increased monthly bill variation of 16%. Residential owners of large flexible loads (such as electric vehicles) saw larger bill savings (17-20%) when on a fully dynamic rate. The presence of on-site generation (such as rooftop solar) did not appear to appreciably change customer outcomes. Customers on the Block and Swing rate did see 6% lower monthly bill variation (as intended) than the flat rate case, but at the expense of appreciable bill savings, which were only 3%, comparable to the savings seen by non-participants. Given this finding we recommend that additional research be conducted into how best various bill protection mechanisms can balance minimizing customer bill variation with providing financial incentives commensurate with the flexibility customers provide. We also recommend that customer outcomes be explored across a range of regions using current actual customer and system cost data.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Dipole Alignment in Rotating MHD Turbulence

We present numerical results from long-term CPU and GPU simulations of rotating, homogeneous, magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulence, and discuss their connection to the spherically bounded case. We compare our numerical results with a statistical theory of geodynamo action that has evolved from the absolute equilibrium ensemble theory of ideal MHD turbulence, which is based on the ideal MHD invariants are energy, cross helicity and magnetic helicity. However, for rotating MHD turbulence, the cross helicity is no longer an exact invariant, although rms cross helicity becomes quasistationary during an ideal MHD simulation. This and the anisotropy imposed by rotation suggests an ansatz in which an effective, nonzero value of cross helicity is assigned to axisymmetric modes and zero cross helicity to non-axisymmetric modes. This hybrid statistics predicts a large-scale quasistationary magnetic field due to broken ergodicity , as well as dipole vector alignment with the rotation axis, both of which are observed numerically. We find that only a relatively small value of effective cross helicity leads to the prediction of a dipole moment vector that is closely aligned (less than 10 degrees) with the rotation axis. We also discuss the effect of initial conditions, dissipation and grid size on the numerical simulations and statistical theory.

Shebalin, John V.↗

Convection Parametrization and Multi-Nesting Dependence of a Heavy Rainfall Event over Namibia with Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model

Namibia is considered as one of the countries that are most vulnerable to climate change due to its generally dry climate and the percentage of its population that rely on subsistence agriculture for their livelihoods. Early warning systems are an important aspect of adapting to climate change. Weather forecasting relies on the use of numerical weather prediction models and these need to be configured properly. In this study we investigate the effects of using multi-nests and a convection scheme on the simulation of a heavy rainfall event over the Northwestern region of Kunene, Namibia. The event which was associated with a cut-off low system, was short-lived and resulted in over 45 mm of rainfall in one hour. For the multi-nest, a 9 km grid length parent domain is nested within the Global Forecast System (GFS) simulations, which in turn forces a 3 km grid spacing child domain. A different set of simulations are produced using a single nest of 3 km grid spacing, nested directly inside the GFS data. The simulations are produced with the convection scheme switched on and off. The impact of a single versus multi nest is found to be small in general, with slight differences in the location of high rainfall intensity. Switching off the convection schemes results in high rainfall intensity and increased detail in the simulations, including when a grid spacing of 9 km mis used. Using a grid spacing of 3 km with the convection scheme on, results in a loss of detail in the simulations as well as lower rainfall amounts. The study shows a need for different configurations to be tested before an optimum configuration can be selected for operational forecasting. We recommend further tests with different synoptic forcing to be conducted to identify a suitable configuration for Namibia.

flooding↗

An embedded grid formulation applied to delta wings

An embedded grid algorithm for the Euler and/or Navier-Stokes equations is developed and applied to delta wings at high angles of attack in low speed flow. The Navier-Stokes code is an implicit, finite volume algorithm, using flux difference splitting for the convective and pressure terms and central differencing for the viscous and heat transfer terms. Calculations are compared with detailed experimental results over an angle of attack range up to and beyond the maximum lift coefficient, corresponding to vortex breakdown at the trailing edge, for a delta wing nominally of unit aspect ratio. The results indicate that the overall flowfield, including surface pressures, surface streamlines, and vortex trajectories, can be simulated accurately with the global grid version of the present algorithm. However, comparison of computed velocities and vorticity with experimentally measured off-body values at an angle of attack of 20.5 deg indicates the core region is substantially more diffuse in the computations than that measured with either a five-hole probe or a laser velocimeter. Embedded grids, used to improve the numerical discretization in the core region, are formulated within the framework of the implicit, upwind-biased multi-grid algorithm. Structured levels of local nested refinements are made. Three-dimensional results for both Euler and Navier-Stokes calculations are shown, with up to 3 levels of embedded refinement. The embedding procedure was effective in eliminating a crossflow secondary separation produced in the Euler solutions on coarse grids.

Thomas, James L.↗

Wall Modeled Large Eddy Simulations for NASA’s Jet Noise Consensus Database of Single-Flow, Round, Convergent Jets

A campaign of wall-modeled large-eddy simulations (WMLES) using structured curvilinear overlapping grids has been performed with the Launch Ascent and Vehicle Aerodynamics(LAVA) computational fluid dynamics (CFD) software to predict jet noise for single-stream axisymmetric round jets. The simulations address the new Prediction Uncertainty Reduction(PUR) technical challenge within the context of NASA’s Commercial Supersonic Technology(CST) project. The goal of PUR is to quantify and reduce uncertainties from scale-resolving simulations to assess noise characteristics of next generation quiet supersonic commercial jets during takeoff and landing conditions where the noise from the exhaust jet dominates. The focus of this effort is to generate a simulation database for single-stream axisymmetric round nozzles at several conditions both for static (no ambient co-flow), which is the focus of this article, and in-flight (flight stream co-flow) conditions, which are beyond the current scope. Nine different flow conditions ranging in jet exit Mach number from 0.38 to 1.0 with nozzle temperature ratios (NTR) from 0.84 to 2.7 have been conducted. Details of the structured overset grids, numerical discretization and wall-model are provided. Near-field comparisons to PIV data show great agreement for both velocity and normal stresses, however a systematic TKE overshoot at the nozzle exit is seen in the lip line shear-layer. A permeable Ffowcs Williams Hawkings (FWH) surface, enclosing the jet, is used to predict far-field noise from the simulated flow-field. Comparison of CFD predictions to microphone array measurements demonstrate excellent agreement within the resolved frequency range. A systematic under-prediction of far-aft observer angles larger than 150 degrees has been observed across all simulations. We achieved a cost reduction of an order of magnitude for these WMLES compared to an earlier study of this configuration due to algorithmic and software improvements. The accuracy of the results and short turnaround time demonstrate that WMLES within the LAVA framework is a cost-effective approach for jet noise predictions that could soon be incorporated into the design cycle of jet noise reduction technologies.

CST↗

Stochastic parametric skeletal dosimetry model for humans: General approach and application to active marrow exposure from bone-seeking beta-particle emitters

The objective of this study is to develop a skeleton model for assessing active marrow dose from bone-seeking beta-emitting radionuclides. This article explains the modeling methodology which accounts for individual variability of the macro- and microstructure of bone tissue. Bone sites with active hematopoiesis are assessed by dividing them into small segments described by simple geometric shapes. Spongiosa, which fills the segments, is modeled as an isotropic three-dimensional grid (framework) of rod-like trabeculae that “run through” the bone marrow. Randomized multiple framework deformations are simulated by changing the positions of the grid nodes and the thickness of the rods. Model grid parameters are selected in accordance with the parameters of spongiosa microstructures taken from the published papers. Stochastic modeling of radiation transport in heterogeneous media simulating the distribution of bone tissue and marrow in each of the segments is performed by Monte Carlo methods. Model output for the human femur at different ages is provided as an example. The uncertainty of dosimetric characteristics associated with individual variability of bone structure was evaluated. An advantage of this methodology for the calculation of doses absorbed in the marrow from bone-seeking radionuclides is that it does not require additional studies of autopsy material. The biokinetic model results will be used in the future to calculate individual doses to members of a cohort exposed to 89,90 Sr from liquid radioactive waste discharged to the Techa River by the Mayak Production Association in 1949–1956. Further study of these unique cohorts provides an opportunity to gain more in-depth knowledge about the effects of chronic radiation on the hematopoietic system. In addition, the proposed model can be used to assess the doses to active marrow under any other scenarios of 90 Sr and 89 Sr intake to humans.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Image Collection Simulation Using High-Resolution Atmospheric Modeling

A new method is described for simulating the passive remote sensing image collection of ground targets that includes effects from atmospheric physics and dynamics at fine spatial and temporal scales. The innovation in this research is the process of combining a high-resolution weather model with image collection simulation to attempt to account for heterogeneous and high-resolution atmospheric effects on image products. The atmosphere was modeled on a 3D voxel grid by a Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) driven by forcing data constrained by local ground-based and air-based observations. The spatial scale of the atmospheric model (10–100 m) came closer than conventional weather forecast scales (10–100 km) to approaching the scale of typical commercial multispectral imagery (2 m). This approach was demonstrated through a ground truth experiment conducted at the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains site. In this experiment, calibrated targets (colored spectral tarps) were placed on the ground, and the scene was imaged with WorldView-3 multispectral imagery at a resolution enabling the tarps to be visible in at least 9–12 image pixels. The image collection was simulated with Digital Imaging and Remote Sensing Image Generation (DIRSIG) software, using the 3D atmosphere from the LES model to generate a high-resolution cloud mask. The high-resolution atmospheric model-predicted cloud coverage was usually within 23% of the measured cloud cover. The simulated image products were comparable to the WorldView-3 satellite imagery in terms of the variations of cloud distributions and spectral properties of the ground targets in clear-sky regions, suggesting the potential utility of the proposed modeling framework in improving simulation capabilities, as well as testing and improving the operation of image collection processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗