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At least 1,135 records · Page 63

SLR Station Recovery, Center of Frame Motion, and Time Varying Gravity

Weekly station position estimates, beginning with 1993, are derived from the ITRF2008-based SLR processing of up to four satellites: Lageos 1, Lageos2, Starlette, and Stella. Helmert parameters obtained from c omparison of weekly SLR station positions and the a-priori SLRF2008 station complement are evaluated for geocenter motion and scale. Two me thods for modeling time varying gravity are employed in the SLR satel lite POD processing, with GGM03S serving as the static gravity field. Both methods forward model atmosphere gravity derived from 6-hour ECM WF pressure data. The standard approach applies an annual 20x20 field estimated from 4 years of GRACE data, and the IERS2003 recommended linear rates for C20, C30, C40, C21, and S21. The alternate approach us es a new set of low-order/degree 4x4 coefficients estimated weekly fr om SLR & DORIS processing to 10 satellites from 1993-2012. This exper imental tvg4x4 model has been shown to improve the TOPEX, Jason-1, and Jason-2 altimeter satellite orbits,. In this paper we apply the more detailed time-variable gravity modeling to the SLR satellite POD pro cessing and subsequent reference frame analyses. For this study we will evaluate the orbit differences (periodic and secular) for the satel lites concerned, characterize the impact on the station coordinate solutions, and the impact on reference frame parameters (geocenter and s cale).

Zelensky, Nikita P.↗

Analysis of calibration data for the uranium active neutron coincidence counting collar with attention to errors in the measured neutron coincidence rate

The declared linear density of 238 U and 235 U in fresh low enriched uranium light water reactor fuel assemblies can be verified for nuclear safeguards purposes using a neutron coincidence counter collar in passive and active mode, respectively. The active mode calibration of the Uranium Neutron Collar - Light water reactor fuel (UNCL) instrument is normally performed using a non-linear fitting technique. The fitting technique relates the measured neutron coincidence rate (the predictor) to the linear density of 235 U (the response) in order to estimate model parameters of the nonlinear Parte equation, which traditionally is used to model the calibration data. Alternatively, following a simple data transformation, the fitting can also be performed using standard linear fitting methods. This article compares performance of the nonlinear technique to the linear technique, using a range of possible error variance magnitudes in the measured neutron coincidence rate. We develop the required formalism and then apply the traditional (nonlinear) and alternative approaches (linear) to the same experimental and corresponding simulated representative datasets. Here, we find that, in this context, because of the magnitude of the errors in the predictor, it is preferable not to transform to a linear model, and it is preferable not to adjust for the errors in the predictor when inferring the model parameters.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Stability analysis of WEST L-mode discharges with improved confinement from boron powder injection

WEST L-mode plasmas with dominant electron heating and no core torque source have observed improvements in confinement during boron (B) powder injection. These results are reminiscent of previous powder injection experiments on other devices and gaseous impurity seeding experiments on WEST. During powder injection, the stored energy increased up to 25% due to enhanced ion and electron heat and particle confinement. The improvements in confinement were not indicative of an L-H transition. To identify the dominant mechanisms and the causality chain behind these improvements in confinement, we employ interpretative modeling using METIS, predictive integrated modeling using a high-fidelity plasma simulator (HFPS), and stand-alone gyrokinetic simulations using quasi-linear gyrokinetic code. Interpretative modeling with METIS allowed for the estimation of missing data while maintaining good overall consistency with experiment. These results provided the initial conditions for fully predictive flux driven simulations using the HFPS. From these simulations, quasi-linear gyrokinetic analysis was performed at ρ = 0.5 and ρ = 0.65. Collisionality was found to be a strong candidate for the turbulence suppression mechanism at ρ = 0.5, while a combination of collisionality and the T e /T i ratio was found to be the likely mechanism at ρ = 0.65. The results additionally suggested that increased Z eff (through main ion dilution) could play a role in the improved confinement, but this could not be confirmed due to a lack of experimental measurements. The modeling framework established here can now be used to evaluate and exploit a variety of future powder injection experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A multiple linear regression analysis of hot corrosion attack on a series of nickel base turbine alloys

Multiple linear regression analysis was used to determine an equation for estimating hot corrosion attack for a series of Ni base cast turbine alloys. The U transform (i.e., 1/sin (% A/100) to the 1/2) was shown to give the best estimate of the dependent variable, y. A complete second degree equation is described for the centered" weight chemistries for the elements Cr, Al, Ti, Mo, W, Cb, Ta, and Co. In addition linear terms for the minor elements C, B, and Zr were added for a basic 47 term equation. The best reduced equation was determined by the stepwise selection method with essentially 13 terms. The Cr term was found to be the most important accounting for 60 percent of the explained variability hot corrosion attack.

Barrett, C. A.↗

Impact damage of composites

A model is described for estimating the impact damage of fiber reinforced composite plates. The displacements and stresses are calculated by a three dimensional transient, finite element method of solution of the governing equations applicable to a linearly elastic body. The region in which damage occurs is estimated using the Tsai-Wu failure criterion. A computer code was developed which can be used to calculate the impact force, displacements and velocities of the plate and the impact body, stresses and strains in the plate, and the damage area. Sample numerical results are presented illustrating the type of information provided by the code. Comparisons between measured and calculated damage areas are also given.

Wu, Hsi-Young T.↗

Inverse rendering of fusion plasmas: Inferring plasma composition from imaging systems

In this work, we develop a differentiable rendering pipeline for visualising plasma emission within tokamaks, and estimating the gradients of the emission and estimating other physical quantities. Unlike prior work, we are able to leverage arbitrary representations of plasma quantities and easily incorporate them into a non-linear optimisation framework. The efficiency of our method enables not only estimation of a physically plausible image of plasma, but also recovery of the neutral Deuterium distribution from imaging and midplane measurements alone. We demonstrate our method with three different levels of complexity showing first that a poloidal neutrals density distribution can be recovered from imaging alone, second that the distributions of neutral Deuterium, electron density and electron temperature can be recovered jointly, and finally, that this can be done in the presence of realistic imaging systems that incorporate sensor cropping and quantisation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Spatial and temporal prediction of radiation dose rates near Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant

In this paper, we have developed a methodology to estimate the spatiotemporal distribution of radiation air dose rates around the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP). In our exploratory data analysis, we found that (1) the temporal evolution of dose rates is composed of a log-linear decay trend and fluctuations of air dose rates that are spatially correlated among adjacent monitoring posts; and (2) the slope of the log-linear environmental decay trend can be represented as a function of the apparent initial dose rates, coordinate position, land-use type, and soil type. From these observations, we first estimated the log-linear decay trend at each location based on these predictors, using the random forest method. We then developed a modified Kalman filter coupled with a Gaussian process model to estimate the dose-rate time series at a given location and time. We applied this method to the Fukushima evacuation zone (as of March 2017), which included 17 monitoring post locations (with monitoring datasets collected between 2014 and 2018) and generated a time series of dose-rate maps. Our results show that this approach allows us to produce accurate spatial and temporal predictions of radiation dose-rate maps using limited spatiotemporal measurements.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Increasing the power of weak lensing data with multipole-based intrinsic alignment estimators

ABSTRACT It has long been known that galaxy shapes align coherently with the large-scale density field. Characterizing this effect is essential to interpreting measurements of weak gravitational lensing, the deflection of light from distant galaxies by matter overdensities along the line of sight, as it also produces coherent galaxy alignments that we wish to interpret in terms of a cosmological model. Existing direct measurements of intrinsic alignments using galaxy samples with high-quality shape and redshift measurements typically use well-understood but sub-optimal projected estimators, which do not make good use of the information in the data when comparing those estimators to theoretical models. We demonstrate a more optimal estimator, based on a multipole expansion of the correlation functions or power spectra, for direct measurements of galaxy intrinsic alignments. We show that even using the lowest order multipole alone increases the significance of inferred model parameters using simulated and real data, without any additional modelling complexity. We apply this estimator to measurements of parameters of the non-linear alignment model using data from the Sloan Digital Sky survey, demonstrating consistent results with a factor of ∼2 greater precision in parameter fits to intrinsic alignments models. This result is functionally equivalent to quadrupling the survey area, but without the attendant costs – thereby demonstrating the value in using this new estimator in current and future intrinsic alignments measurements using spectroscopic galaxy samples.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Coupled Groups of g-Modes in a Sun with Mixed Core

Groups of linear g-modes can sum to create long-lived nonlinear oscillations in small "hot volumes" very deep in the Sun that help drive the modes. In these volumes (dimensions -10 Mm), the time average rate of He-3 burning doubles as temperature fluctuations exceed 10% and rises by an order of magnitude for fluctuations of 25%. To be consistent with locally large motions, we impose a mixed shell on an otherwise standard solar model before computing g-mode solutions. Mixing in the assumed shell r = (0.10+/-0.03) R(sub sun) is rapid (<<10(exp 6) yr) with slower mixing somewhat beyond. If l is the principal spherical harmonic index, a set of g-modes for any single l less than or equal to 15 with five consecutive radial harmonics can be excited with nearly linear thermal amplitudes, A(sub T) less than or equal to 0.053, throughout the star and a fractional temperature fluctuation in its hot volume of (Delta)T/T less than or equal to 0.18. These thresholds for excitation will become smaller when sets for several values of l are computed simultaneously. There is some evidence for the rotation of g-mode sets in the long solar activity record and g-mode upward wave flux has been suggested to explain the 1.3 yr reversing flows tentatively detected below the Sun's convective envelope (CE). The large local amplitudes needed for excitation implies that g-modes may transport a non-negligible fraction of the solar luminosity, yet their near linear amplitudes outside the hot volume suggests amplitudes over most of the solar surface that would be barely detectable for l > 3. A formalism is presented for summing the g-modes and estimating growth rates under the approximation that modes are strictly linear except in a hot volume which holds only a few percent of mode kinetic energy. Finally over the range 2 less than or equal to l less than or equal to 30, we summed all zonal harmonics, m, for a given l and computed the relative angular orientations that would release the most nuclear energy. This should be close to the physically preferred angular state of such a family and a few examples were displayed.

Wolff, Charles L.↗

On the state estimation of structures with second order observers

The use of the linear quadratic regulator control synthesis techniques implies the availability of full state feedback. For vibration control of structures, usually only a limited number of states are measured from which an observer model reconstructs the full state. This paper shows that using second-order observers is a viable technique for reconstructing the unmeasured states of structures under mildly restrictive conditions. Moreover, the computational advantages of the second-order observer, as compared to a first-order observer, indicate that significantly larger observer models may be utilized. Numerical examples are used to demonstrate the performance of second-order observers. The implications of second-order observers in the development of the control/structures interaction technology is discussed.

Belvin, W. Keith↗

Effect of mean load on the non-linear behavior of spur gear noise source

An analytical technique for estimating noise generation by spur-gear pairs with backlash is developed using the results obtained by Comparin and Singh (1989). The derivation of the governing equations is outlined, and numerical results for sample problems are presented in graphs. Good agreement with published experimental data (Munro, 1962) is demonstrated.

Kahraman, Ahmet↗

Deterministic absorbed dose estimation in computed tomography using a discrete ordinates method

Purpose: Organ dose estimation for a patient undergoing computed tomography (CT) scanning is very important. Although Monte Carlo methods are considered gold-standard in patient dose estimation, the computation time required is formidable for routine clinical calculations. Here, the authors instigate a deterministic method for estimating an absorbed dose more efficiently. Methods: Compared with current Monte Carlo methods, a more efficient approach to estimating the absorbed dose is to solve the linear Boltzmann equation numerically. In this study, an axial CT scan was modeled with a software package, Denovo, which solved the linear Boltzmann equation using the discrete ordinates method. The CT scanning configuration included 16 x-ray source positions, beam collimators, flat filters, and bowtie filters. The phantom was the standard 32 cm CT dose index (CTDI) phantom. Four different Denovo simulations were performed with different simulation parameters, including the number of quadrature sets and the order of Legendre polynomial expansions. A Monte Carlo simulation was also performed for benchmarking the Denovo simulations. A quantitative comparison was made of the simulation results obtained by the Denovo and the Monte Carlo methods. Results: The difference in the simulation results of the discrete ordinates method and those of the Monte Carlo methods was found to be small, with a root-mean-square difference of around 2.4%. It was found that the discrete ordinates method, with a higher order of Legendre polynomial expansions, underestimated the absorbed dose near the center of the phantom (i.e., low dose region). Simulations of the quadrature set 8 and the first order of the Legendre polynomial expansions proved to be the most efficient computation method in the authors’ study. The single-thread computation time of the deterministic simulation of the quadrature set 8 and the first order of the Legendre polynomial expansions was 21 min on a personal computer. Conclusions: The simulation results showed that the deterministic method can be effectively used to estimate the absorbed dose in a CTDI phantom. The accuracy of the discrete ordinates method was close to that of a Monte Carlo simulation, and the primary benefit of the discrete ordinates method lies in its rapid computation speed. It is expected that further optimization of this method in routine clinical CT dose estimation will improve its accuracy and speed.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

New Probe of the High- z Baryon Acoustic Oscillation Scale: BAO Tomography with CMB × LIM -Nulling Convergence

Standard rulers such as the baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) scale serve as workhorses for precision tests of cosmology, enabling distance measurements that probe the geometry and expansion history of our Universe. Aside from BAO measurements from the cosmic microwave background (CMB), most standard ruler techniques operate at relatively low redshifts and depend on biased tracers of the matter density field. In a companion paper, we explored the scientific reach of nulling estimators, where CMB lensing convergence maps are cross-correlated with linear combinations of similar maps from line intensity mapping (LIM) to precisely null out the low-redshift contributions to CMB lensing. We showed that nulling estimators can be used to constrain the high redshift matter power spectrum and showed that this spectrum exhibits discernible BAO features. Here we propose using these features as a standard ruler at high redshifts that does not rely on biased tracers. Forecasting such a measurement at z ~ 5, we find that next-generation instruments will be able to constrain the BAO scale to 7.2% precision, while our futuristic observing scenario can constrain the BAO scale to 4% precision. In conclusion, this constitutes a fundamentally new kind of BAO measurement during early epochs in our cosmic history.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Predicting Flow in Fracture Networks With Quantum Algorithms

Uncertainty quantification plays a crucial role in the modeling of subsurface flow. For instance, uncertainties in the properties of geologic fracture networks significantly impact flow, requiring numerous simulations to accurately estimate quantities of interest. However, each simulation is computationally expensive because it requires solving a large linear system to capture features that involve both small and large fractures. An example is in percolation, where the interaction of many small fractures (which cumulatively can have a large surface area) with the rock matrix must be modeled precisely. Quantum computing is an emerging tool with the potential to address this issue. Quantum algorithms offer a significant speedup in solving linear systems, achieving efficiencies that are challenging to match with classical approaches. These classical approaches include direct solvers, such as LU decomposition, and iterative methods, notably preconditioned conjugate gradient, commonly used in subsurface modeling to solve large sparse systems. However, applying quantum algorithms to geologic fracture flow requires careful attention to algorithmic and problem-specific constraints to fully realize this quantum advantage. In this work we describe a quantum algorithm for generalized Monte Carlo applications with a quadratic speedup over the classical approaches which can be combined with the quantum speedup, currently under investigation, for solving quantum linear systems for subsurface flow. We show that for quantum algorithms the computational cost of estimating a quantity of interest for a statistical ensemble of networks is roughly the same as that of a single realization, essentially implying that one can get uncertainty quantification for free.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Dynamic Power Network State Estimation with Asynchronous Measurements

The operation of distribution networks is becoming increasingly volatile, due to fast variations of renewables and, hence, net-loading conditions. To perform a reliable state estimation under these conditions, this paper considers the case where measurements from meters, phasor measurement units, and distributed energy resources are collected and processed in real time to produce estimates of the state at a fast time scale. Streams of measurements collected in real time and at heterogenous rates render the underlying processing asynchronous, and poses severe strains on workhorse state estimation algorithms. In this work, a real-time state estimation algorithm is proposed, where data are processed on the fly. Starting from a regularized least-squares model, and leveraging appropriate linear models, the proposed scheme boils down to a linear dynamical system where the state is updated based on the previous estimate and on the measurement gathered from a few available sensors. The estimation error is shown to be always bounded under mild condition. Numerical simulations are provided to corroborate the analytical findings.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Dynamic Power Network State Estimation with Asynchronous Measurements: Preprint

The operation of distribution networks is becoming increasingly volatile, due to fast variations of renewables and, hence, net-loading conditions. To perform a reliable state estimation under these conditions, this paper considers the case where measurements from meters, phasor measurement units, and distributed energy resources are collected and processed in real time to produce estimates of the state at a fast time scale. Streams of measurements collected in real time and at heterogenous rates render the underlying processing asynchronous, and poses severe strains on workhorse state estimation algorithms. In this work, a real-time state estimation algorithm is proposed, where data are processed on the fly. Starting from a regularized least-squares model, and leveraging appropriate linear models, the proposed scheme boils down to a linear dynamical system where the state is updated based on the previous estimate and on the measurement gathered from a few available sensors. The estimation error is shown to be always bounded under mild condition. Numerical simulations are provided to corroborate the analytical findings.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

On Time Delay Margin Estimation for Adaptive Control and Optimal Control Modification

This paper presents methods for estimating time delay margin for adaptive control of input delay systems with almost linear structured uncertainty. The bounded linear stability analysis method seeks to represent an adaptive law by a locally bounded linear approximation within a small time window. The time delay margin of this input delay system represents a local stability measure and is computed analytically by three methods: Pade approximation, Lyapunov-Krasovskii method, and the matrix measure method. These methods are applied to the standard model-reference adaptive control, s-modification adaptive law, and optimal control modification adaptive law. The windowing analysis results in non-unique estimates of the time delay margin since it is dependent on the length of a time window and parameters which vary from one time window to the next. The optimal control modification adaptive law overcomes this limitation in that, as the adaptive gain tends to infinity and if the matched uncertainty is linear, then the closed-loop input delay system tends to a LTI system. A lower bound of the time delay margin of this system can then be estimated uniquely without the need for the windowing analysis. Simulation results demonstrates the feasibility of the bounded linear stability method for time delay margin estimation.

Nguyen, Nhan T.↗