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Ellicott City Disasters II: Enhancing a Statistical Flood Risk Model to Continue Improving Early Warning Systems and Public Safety in Ellicott City, Maryland

As flooding events in the United States grow in frequency and intensity, the use of technological advancements and applied science are increasingly necessary for effective flood monitoring and warning systems. The NASA DEVELOP Ellicott City Disasters II project investigated the use of machine learning for applications in flood risk detection to support the improvement of early warning systems. To strengthen the efforts of the Howard County Office of Emergency Management (OEM) in building a more robust flood monitoring system, the project improved the original statistical flood risk model, FLuME (Flood Learning Model Environment), programmed by the first DEVELOP term The enhancements incorporated an additional six years of precipitation and soil moisture data from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS), modeled using Aqua Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission TRMM Microwave Imager. These Earth observations were supplemented by stream gauge data from the OEM and the US Geological Survey. The resultant flood risk model FLASH (Flood Learning Environment and Severity Assessment Hub) was trained to evaluate input variables and predict stage height in Ellicott City in real time. The addition of an advanced deep learning framework known as long short-term memory improved the model’s ability to capture relationships between variables. To assess the effectiveness of the new model, FLASH produced a model efficiency metric of 0.99, a significant improvement over the 0.85 value produced by the previous model. The project assisted the OEM in pursuing the integration of open data and NASA Earth observations into a threat matrix capable of informing near real-time decision making.

Disasters↗

Numerical Computations of Hypersonic Boundary-Layer over Surface Irregularities

Surface irregularities such as protuberances inside a hypersonic boundary layer may lead to premature transition on the vehicle surface. Early transition in turn causes large localized surface heating that could damage the thermal protection system. Experimental measurements as well as numerical computations aimed at building a knowledge base for transition Reynolds numbers with respect to different protuberance sizes and locations have been actively pursued in recent years. This paper computationally investigates the unsteady wake development behind large isolated cylindrical roughness elements and the scaled wind-tunnel model of the trip used in a recent flight measurement during the reentry of space shuttle Discovery. An unstructured mesh, compressible flow solver based on the space-time conservation element, solution element (CESE) method is used to perform time-accurate Navier-Stokes calculations for the flow past a roughness element under several wind-tunnel conditions. For a cylindrical roughness element with a height to the boundary-layer thickness ratio from 0.8 to 2.5, the wake flow is characterized by a mushroom-shaped centerline streak and horse-shoe vortices. While time-accurate solutions converged to a steady-state for a ratio of 0.8, strong flow unsteadiness is present for a ratio of 1.3 and 2.5. Instability waves marked by distinct disturbance frequencies were found in the latter two cases. Both the centerline streak and the horse-shoe vortices become unstable downstream. The oscillatory vortices eventually reach an early breakdown stage for the largest roughness element. Spectral analyses in conjunction with the computed root mean square variations suggest that the source of the unsteadiness and instability waves in the wake region may be traced back to possible absolute instability in the front-side separation region.

Chang, Chau-Lyan↗

Evaluation of Superalloy 718 Additively Manufactured Lattice Blocks

Lattice block structures made up of high temperature superalloys could offer advantages in density, efficiency, and tailored properties. Three candidate lattice designs were screened through additive manufacturing of superalloy 718. Laser powder bed fusion was applied with 718 powder to produce lattice blocks for three-dimensional octahedral unit cell designs of three heights. As-designed versus additively manufactured 718 lattices were compared, including structural dimensions, densities, defects, grain structures, crystallographic texture, and surface residual stresses. Manufactured lattice I diverged the most from its design, with both corner and center nodes merged into continuous columns. Manufactured lattice III came closest to its design, though the actual nodes and struts were still larger in cross section than in the design. Only modest grain coarsening and negligible chemical segregation were observed for all three designs, suggesting uniform thermo-physical and mechanical properties are possible. Significant tensile residual stresses were present at the surface of the manufactured blocks, with highest stresses in the building direction. Current findings indicate this concept could produce useful superalloy structures for high-temperature-capable static components requiring tailored density, and thermo-physical/mechanical properties.

super alloys↗

Metallurgical Mechanisms Controlling Mechanical Properties of Aluminum Alloy 2219 Produced By Electron Beam Freeform Fabrication

The electron beam freeform fabrication (EBF3) layer-additive manufacturing process has been developed to directly fabricate complex geometry components. EBF3 introduces metal wire into a molten pool created on the surface of a substrate by a focused electron beam. Part geometry is achieved by translating the substrate with respect to the beam to build the part one layer at a time. Tensile properties have been demonstrated for electron beam deposited aluminum and titanium alloys that are comparable to wrought products, although the microstructures of the deposits exhibit features more typical of cast material. Understanding the metallurgical mechanisms controlling mechanical properties is essential to maximizing application of the EBF3 process. In the current study, mechanical properties and resulting microstructures were examined for aluminum alloy 2219 fabricated over a range of EBF3 process variables. Material performance was evaluated based on tensile properties and results were compared with properties of Al 2219 wrought products. Unique microstructures were observed within the deposited layers and at interlayer boundaries, which varied within the deposit height due to microstructural evolution associated with the complex thermal history experienced during subsequent layer deposition. Microstructures exhibited irregularly shaped grains, typically with interior dendritic structures, which were described based on overall grain size, morphology, distribution, and dendrite spacing, and were correlated with deposition parameters. Fracture features were compared with microstructural elements to define fracture paths and aid in definition of basic processing-microstructure-property correlations.

Domack, Marcia S.↗

Evolution of the Large Scale Circulation, Cloud Structure and Regional Water Cycle Associated with the South China Sea Monsoon During May-June, 1998

In this paper, changes in the large-scale circulation, cloud structures and regional water cycle associated with the evolution of the South China Sea (SCS) monsoon in May-June 1998 were investigated using data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and field data from the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX). Results showed that both tropical and extratropical processes strongly influenced the onset and evolution of the SCS monsoon. Prior to the onset of the SCS monsoon, enhanced convective activities associated with the Madden and Julian Oscillation were detected over the Indian Ocean, and the SCS was under the influence of the West Pacific Anticyclone (WPA) with prevailing low level easterlies and suppressed convection. Establishment of low-level westerlies across Indo-China, following the development of a Bay of Bengal depression played an important role in building up convective available potential energy over the SCS. The onset of SCS monsoon appeared to be triggered by the equatorward penetration of extratropical frontal system, which was established over the coastal region of southern China and Taiwan in early May. Convective activities over the SCS were found to vary inversely with those over the Yangtze River Valley (YRV). Analysis of TRMM microwave and precipitation radar data revealed that during the onset phase, convection over the northern SCS consisted of squall-type rain cell embedded in meso-scale complexes similar to extratropical systems. The radar Z-factor intensity indicated that SCS clouds possessed a bimodal distribution, with a pronounced signal (less than 30dBz) at a height of 2-3 km, and another one (less than 25 dBz) at the 8-10 km level, separated by a well-defined melting level indicated by a bright band at around 5-km level. The stratiform-to-convective cloud ratio was approximately 1:1 in the pre-onset phase, but increased to 5:1 in the active phase. Regional water budget calculations indicated that during the active phase, the SCS was a strong sink (E-P much less than 0) of atmospheric moisture, with the primary source of moisture coming from regions further west over Indo-China and the eastern Indian Ocean. Before onset and during the break, the SCS was a moisture source (E-P greater than ) to the overlying atmosphere. In particular, the SCS provided the bulk of moisture to the torrential rain over the YRV in mid-June 1998.

Lau, William K.-M.↗

A boundary layer approach to the analysis of atmospheric motion over a surface obstruction

A boundary layer approach for the solution of the flow field induced over a two-dimensional surface obstruction, such as a building or other man-made structure, is proposed. Adopting a specific geometry in the form of a semi-elliptical cylinder, the characteristics of atmospheric shear flow over a rough terrain are coupled with the well-known boundary layer equations. Two approaches are presented to incorporate the pressure field and boundary conditions which exist within the large viscous region over the obstruction. The first considers a region in the immediate vicinity of the body in which the pressure distribution and outer boundary condition on the velocity are computed from potential theory for flow over the elliptical cylinder. The second approach considers a much larger region of influence, extending from the surface to the undisturbed flow at large heights above the obstruction. Methods which appear to provide an improved theoretical model of the flow over the ellipse, such as a technique for simulating the effect of the seperation regions upstream and downstream of the body, are also presented.

Frost, W.↗

Assimilation of Altimeter Data into a Quasigeostrophic Model of the Gulf Stream System: Assimilation Results - Part 2

The improvement in the climatological behavior of a numerical model as a consequence of the assimilation of surface data is investigated. The model used for this study is a quasigeostrophic (QG) model of the Gulf Stream region. The data that have been assimilated are maps of sea surface height that have been obtained as the superposition of sea surface height variability deduced from the Geosat altimeter measurements and a mean field constructed from historical hydrographic data. The method used for assimilating the data is the nudging technique. Nudging has been implemented in such a way as to achieve a high degree of convergence of the surface model fields toward the observations. Comparisons of the assimilation results with available in situ observations show a significant improvement in the degree of realism of the climatological model behavior, with respect to the model in which no data are assimilated. The remaining discrepancies in the model mean circulation seem to be mainly associated with deficiencies in the mean component of the surface data that are assimilated. On the other hand, the possibility of building into the model more realistic eddy characteristics through the assimilation of the surface eddy field proves very successful in driving components of the mean model circulation that are in relatively good agreement with the available observations. Comparisons with current meter time series during a time period partially overlapping the Geosat mission show that the model is able to 'correctly' extrapolate the instantaneous surface eddy signals to depths of approximately 1500 m. The correlation coefficient between current meter and model time series varies from values close to 0.7 in the top 1500 m to values as low as 0.1-0.2 in the deep ocean.

Capotondi, Antonietta↗

EUNIS: An Extreme-Ultraviolet Normal-Incidence Spectrometer

GSFC is in the process of assembling an Extreme-Ultraviolet Normal-Incidence Spectrometer called EUNIS, to be flown as a sounding rocket payload. This instrument builds on the many technical innovations pioneered by our highly successful SERTS experiment over its past ten flights. The new design will have somewhat improved spatial and spectral resolutions, as well as 100 times greater sensitivity, permitting EUV spectroscopy with a temporal resolution near 1-second for the first time ever. To achieve such high time cadence, a novel Active-Pixel-Sensor detector is being developed as a key component of our design. The high sensitivity of EUNIS will allow entirely new studies of transient coronal phenomena, such as the rapid loop dynamics seen by TRACE, and searches for non-thermal motions indicative of magnetic reconnection or wave heating. The increased sensitivity will also permit useful EUV spectra at heights of 2-3-R$ \odot$ above the limb, where the transition between the static corona and the solar wind might occur. In addition, the new design features two independent optical systems, more than doubling the spectral bandwidth covered on each flight. Its 300-370\AA\ bandpass includes He-II 304\AA\ and strong lines from Fe-XI-XVI, extending the current SERTS range of 300-355\AA\ to further improve our ongoing series of calibration under-flights for SOHO/CDS and EIT. The second bandpass of 170-230\AA\ has a sequence of very strong Fe-IX-XIV lines, and will allow under-flight support for two more channels on SOHO/EIT, two channels on TRACE, one on Solar-B/EIS, and all four channels on the STEREO/EUVI instrument. First flight of the new EUNIS payload is scheduled for 2002 October.

Thomas, Roger J.↗

NASA's Space Launch System Begins Integration, Stacking in Preparation for Artemis I Launch

The Artemis era of human lunar exploration is nearing take-off as NASA’s new super heavy-lift launch vehicle, the Space Launch System (SLS), begins stack-ing and integration operations in mid-2020 at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) in Florida. With a planned upgrade path to progressively more powerful vehicles and availability in crew and cargo configurations, SLS provides a unique and flexible launch solution to send crew, large-scale infrastructure and robotic probes to deep space. The SLS Block 1 vehicle, the initial variant to fly, is optimized for lunar missions with a proven propulsion system consisting of four liquid hydrogen (LH2)/liquid oxygen (LOX)-fed RS-25 engines and twin five-segment solid rocket boosters (SRBs). The Block 1 vehicle can also be outfitted with an industry-standard 5 m-class payload fairing (the “cargo” configuration) and will launch at least 27 metric tons (t) of mass to trans-lunar injection (TLI). SLS is the backbone of NASA’s Artemis program, which will return the agency’s human spaceflight program to the Moon for the first time since 1972. For the Artemis I mission, SLS will send an uncrewed Orion spacecraft to TLI, where it will enter a distant retrograde lunar orbit and fly 38,000 nmi past the Moon – farther than any spacecraft built for humans has ever traveled. The SLS Block 1 vehicle for Artemis I completed manufacturing in 2019. Several elements, including the upper stage, have been delivered to the Exploration Ground Systems (EGS) program at KSC and are being prepped for integration and stack-ing. The five-segment solid rocket boosters – the largest and most powerful ever built for flight – are also complete. The booster motor segments for the Artemis I flight are scheduled to ship from prime contractor Northrop Grumman’s Utah facilities and begin stacking and integration at KSC in June 2020. The SLS core stage is the largest rocket stage NASA has ever built in terms of volume and height, and includes the avionics and the tanks that feed cryogenic propellant to the four RS-25s (formerly Space Shuttle Main Engines [SSMEs]). They have been modified with an updated controller and nozzle insulation to protect them from the hotter launch environment. The SLS core stage is currently being test-ed at NASA’s Stennis Space Center (SSC) in a series of “green run” tests to verify it meets design and performance requirements. Following the green run test series, which is scheduled to culminate with a full-duration hot-fire of the four RS-25 engines, the core stage will ship to KSC and be stacked between the sol-id rocket boosters in the Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB). Integration of the vehicle will continue with the upper stage, known as the Interim Cryogenic Propulsion Stage (ICPS) and the Launch Vehicle Stage Adapter (LVSA) on the core stage. Another adapter, the Orion Stage Adapter (OSA), connects SLS to Orion and provides housing for 13 6U CubeSat payloads manifested on Artemis I. The CubeSats will be released in deep space after Orion separates from the vehicle, and the flight marks the first ride share opportunity for independent small-sats to deep space. The second major SLS variant to come online, Block 1B, replaces the single-engine ICPS with a four-engine LH2/LOX Exploration Upper Stage (EUS). This more powerful upper stage, along with other vehicle up-grades, will enable the Block 1B vehicle to launch 38-42 t to TLI, depending on crew or cargo configuration. The final evolution of the vehicle, Block 2, will onramp evolved solid rocket boosters to increase mass to TLI to 43-46 t, de-pending on crew or cargo configuration. The Block 1B/Block 2 vehicles can be outfitted with an 8.4 m-diameter payload fairing in 19.1 m or 27.4 m lengths, to provide unprecedented volume for payloads. With the initial Block 1 vehicle completely manufactured and the core stage in final testing before shipping to KSC, the SLS Program and its industry partners have made significant progress manufacturing subsequent vehicles. For the second Block 1 vehicle, the solid rocket motor segments are complete, as are the RS-25 engines with controllers. All five major components of the Artemis II core stage – the forward skirt, LOX and LH2 tanks, intertank and engine section – are manufactured and technicians are installing subsystems at NASA’s rocket factory, Michoud Assembly Facility. The RL-10 engine for the Artemis II ICPS is complete and panels have been machined for its LH2 tank. In addition, panels are machined for the vehicle’s two adapters, with welding scheduled to begin in summer 2020. Flight hard-ware is also in production for the third SLS vehicle, with several booster motor segments cast. The pace of development on the EUS has increased, with the goal to complete Critical Design Review (CDR) in December 2020. Several EUS test rings have been machined at Michoud. The EUS is designed to exe-cute a variety of missions – human spaceflight, deployment of deep-space infra-structure, or high-C3 missions to the outer solar system – with crew and cargo configurations available beginning in the mid-2020s. The near-term goal for the nation’s powerful new space exploration asset, however, is to launch the Arte-mis program, and send the first woman and the next man to the lunar surface. At the Astrodynamics Specialist Conference, the SLS program will update the community on the progress of the initial Block 1 vehicle in final green run test-ing, integration and stacking. In addition, this paper will provide an update to the community on the manufacturing status of subsequent Block 1 and Block 1B vehicles.

Steve Creech↗

The distribution of odd nitrogen in the lower stratosphere and possible perturbations caused by stratospheric air transport

In the lower stratosphere a significant production of odd nitrogen results from the reaction N2O + O(D-1) yields 2NO. Since the transport is relatively slow, odd nitrogen builds up with a maximum mixing ratio of 2 x 10 to the minus 8th power at 30 Km. Profiles of odd nitrogen, for different latitudes, winter and summer, are computed from one-dimensional transport models. Variations with latitude are small. Horizontal transport is therefore not believed to alter our results significantly. In order to evaluate the effect of odd nitrogen upon the ozone layer, NO(x) profiles are calculated. OH is here a key component, since it converts NO2 to HNO3. In the region where ozone is determined by chemistry rather than by transport (above 25 km), NO2 is found to be relatively abundant. The effect of stratospheric transport on the NO(x) distribution is shown to depend critically upon the height of emission. The effect increases by a factor of 5 or more for a change of flight level from 18 km to 23 km. This strong dependence should be duely considered when future stratospheric transport is discussed.

Isaksen, I. S. A.↗

Delay Line Detectors for the UVCS and Sumer Instruments on the SOHO Satellite

Microchannel plate based detectors with cross delay line image readout have been rapidly implemented for the SUMER and UVCS instruments aboard the Solar Orbiting Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) mission to be launched in July 1995. In October 1993 a fast track program to build and characterize detectors and detector control electronics was initiated. We present the detector system design for the SOHO UVCS and SUMER detector programs, and results from the detector test program. Two deliverable detectors have been built at this point, a demonstration model for UVCS, and the flight Ly alpha detector for UVCS, both of which are to be delivered in the next few weeks. Test results have also been obtained with one other demonstration detector system. The detector format is 26mm x 9mm, with 1024 x 360 digitized pixels, using a low resistance Z stack of microchannel plates (MCP's) and a multilayer cross delay line anode (XDL). This configuration provides gains of approximately 2 x 10(exp 7) with good pulse height distributions (less than 50% FWHM) under uniform flood illumination, and background levels typical for this configuration (approximately 0.6 event cm (exp -2)sec(exp -1)). Local counting rates up to about 400 events/pixel/sec have been achieved with no degradation of the MCP gain. The detector and event encoding electronics achieves about 25 millimeter FVHM with good linearity (plus or minus approximately 1 pixel) and is stable to high global counting rates (greater than 4 x 10(exp 5) events sec(exp -1)). Flat field images are dominated by MCP fixed pattern noise and are stable, but the MCP multifiber modulation usually expected is uncharacteristically absent. The detector and electronics have also successfully passed both thermal vacuum and vibration tests.

Seigmund, O. H. W.↗

Comparative Floral Development of Mir-Grown and Ethylene-Treated, Earth-Grown Super Dwarf Wheat

To study plant growth in microgravity, we grew Super Dwarf wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) in the Svet growth chamber onboard the orbiting Russian space station, Mir, and in identical ground control units at the Institute of BioMedical Problems in Moscow, Russia. Seedling emergence was 56% and 73% in the two root-module compartments on Mir and 75% and 90% on Earth. Growth was vigorous (produced ca. 1 kg dry mass), and individual plants produced 5 to 8 tillers on Mir compared with 3 to 5 on Earth-grown controls. Upon harvest in space and return to Earth, however, all inflorescences of the flight-grown plants were sterile. To ascertain if Super Dwarf wheat responded to the 1.1 to 1.7 micromol/mol atmospheric levels of ethylene measured on the Mir prior to and during flowering, plants on earth were exposed to 0, 1, 3, 10, and 20 micromol/mol of ethylene gas and 1200 micromol/mol CO2 from 7d after emergence to maturity. As in our Mir wheat, plant height, awn length, and the flag leaf were significantly shorter in the ethylene-exposed plants than in controls; inflorescences also exhibited 100% sterility. Scanning electron microscopic (SEM) examination of florets from Mir-grown and ethylene-treated, earth-grown plants showed that development ceased prior to anthesis, and the anthers did not dehisce. Laser scanning confocal microscopic (LSCM) examination of pollen grains from Mir and ethylene-treated plants on earth exhibited zero, one, and occasionally two, but rarely three nuclei; pollen produced in the absence of ethylene was always trinucleate, the normal condition. The scarcity of trinucleate pollen, abrupt cessation of floret development prior to anthesis, and excess tillering in wheat plants on Mir and in ethylene-containing atmospheres on earth build a strong case for the ethylene on Mir as the agent for the induced male sterility and other symptoms, rather than microgravity.

Campbell, William F.↗

Inverse Modeling of the Initial Stage of the 1991 Pinatubo Volcanic Cloud Accounting for Radiative Feedback of Volcanic Ash

The way volcanic clouds evolve is very sensitive to the initial spatial 3D distributions of volcanic materials, which are often unknown. In this study, we conducted inverse modeling of the Mt. Pinatubo cloud using TOMS 2D mapping of Aerosol Index and SO 2 loading during the first three post-eruption days to estimate the time-dependent emissions profiles and initial 3D spatial distributions of volcanic ash and SO 2 . We account for aerosol radiative feedback and dynamic lofting of volcanic ash in the inversion calculations for the first time. This resulted in a lower ash injection height (by 1.5 km for ash) than without ash radiative feedback. The Pinatubo eruption ejected ≈77% of fine ash at 12 to 23 km, ≈65% of SO 2 at 18–25 km. In contrast with previous studies, which suggested that all volcanic materials were emitted above the tropopause, a significant fraction of SO 2 (5.1 of 15.5 Mt) and fine ash (37.2 of 66.5 Mt) were ejected in the troposphere, where SO 2 quickly oxidized into sulfate aerosol that is short-lived in the troposphere. This explains the early presence of sulfate aerosols in the plume and why the models can reproduce the observed volcanic aerosols' optical depth (AOD), assuming lower-than-observed SO 2 emission in the stratosphere. Despite the quicker than in observations build-up of sulfate AOD, in a month after the eruption, the evolution of the Pinatubo AOD simulated using the obtained ash and SO 2 initial distributions converges with the available stratospheric aerosol and gas experiment (SAGE) observations.

Pinatubo volcanic ash and SO2 emissions↗

Method and apparatus for mapping the distribution of chemical elements in an extended medium

Contaminants in an extended medium such as the wall of a building are mapped by locating neutron excitation source on one side of the wall and a gamma ray spectrometer, including a gamma ray detector on the opposite side of the wall facing the excitation source. The source and detector are moved in unison in discrete steps over opposing wall surfaces so as to determine the chemical composition of the elements in a hemispheric region of the wall adjacent the detector with the radius of the region being substantially that of the mean free path distance of gamma rays emitted from elements interacting with neutrons on the detector side of the wall. The source and detector are reversed for relatively thick walls for mapping the distribution of elements on the other side of the wall thickness. The output of the detector is fed to a multichannel pulse height analyzer where the intensity of the various gamma ray spectral lines are indicated relative to a dominant constituent element such as silicon. Resolution of anomalies such as the presence of voids and/or determining the bulk density of the medium is achieved by substituting a gamma ray source technique is also applied to metal alloys, such as iron alloys, in either the solid or molten state.

Evans, L. G.↗

Incorporation of star measurements for the determination of orbit and attitude parameters of a geosynchronous satellite: An iterative application of linear regression

Currently on NOAA/NESS's VIRGS system at the World Weather Building star images are being ingested on a daily basis. The image coordinates of the star locations are measured and stored. Subsequently, the information is used to determine the attitude, the misalignment angles between the spin axis and the principal axis of the satellite, and the precession rate and direction. This is done for both the 'East' and 'West' operational geosynchronous satellites. This orientation information is then combined with image measurements of earth based landmarks to determine the orbit of each satellite. The method for determining the orbit is simple. For each landmark measurement one determines a nominal position vector for the satellite by extending a ray from the landmark's position towards the satellite and intersecting the ray with a sphere with center coinciding with the Earth's center and with radius equal to the nominal height for a geosynchronous satellite. The apparent motion of the satellite around the Earth's center is then approximated with a Keplerian model. In turn the variations of the satellite's height, as a function of time found by using this model, are used to redetermine the successive satellite positions by again using the Earth based landmark measurements and intersecting rays from these landmarks with the newly determined spheres. This process is performed iteratively until convergence is achieved. Only three iterations are required.

Phillips, D.↗

IFSAR Simulation Using the Shooting and Bouncing Ray Technique

Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (IFSAR) is a technique that allows an automated way to carry out terrain mapping. IFSAR is carried out by first generating a SAR image pair from two antennas that are spatially separated. The phase difference between the SAR image pair is proportional to the topography. After registering the SAR images, the difference in phase in each pixel is extracted to generate an interferogram. Since the phase can only be measured within 2pi radians, phase unwrapping is carried out to extract the absolute phase for each pixel that will be proportional to the local height. While IFSAR algorithm is typically applied to measurement data, it is useful to develop an IFSAR simulator to develop a better understanding of the IFSAR technique. The IFSAR simulator can be used in choosing system parameters, experimenting with processing procedures and mission planning. In this paper we will present an IFSAR simulation methodology to simulate the interferogram based on the shooting and bouncing ray (SBR) technique. SBR is a standard ray-tracing technique used to simulate scattering from large, complex targets. SBR is carried out by shooting rays at the target or scene. At the exit point of each ray, a ray-tube integration is done to find its contribution to the total field. A fast algorithm has been developed for the SBR for simulating SAR images of complex targets. In the IFSAR simulation, we build upon the fast SAR simulation technique. Given the antenna pair configuration, radar system parameters and the geometrical description of the scene, we first simulate two SAR images from each antenna. After post processing the two SAR images, we generate an interferogram. Phase unwrapping is then performed on the interferogram to arrive at the desired terrain map. We will present results from the SBR-based IFSAR simulator. The results will include terrain map reconstruction of urban environments. The reconstruction will be compared to the ground truth to examine the fidelity of the simulation. We will also investigate the effect of multi-bounce scattering in urban environments on phase unwrapping and reconstruction.

Houshmand, Bijan↗

Growth from Solutions: Kink dynamics, Stoichiometry, Face Kinetics and stability in turbulent flow

1. Kink dynamics. The first segment of a polygomized dislocation spiral step measured by AFM demonstrates up to 60% scattering in the critical length l*- the length when the segment starts to propagate. On orthorhombic lysozyme, this length is shorter than that the observed interkink distance. Step energy from the critical segment length based on the Gibbs-Thomson law (GTL), l* = 20(omega)alpha/(Delta)mu is several times larger than the energy from 2D nucleation rate. Here o is tine building block specific voiume, a is the step riser specific free energy, Delta(mu) is the crystallization driving force. These new data support our earlier assumption that the classical Frenkel, Burton -Cabrera-Frank concept of the abundant kink supply by fluctuations is not applicable for strongly polygonized steps. Step rate measurements on brushite confirms that statement. This is the1D nucleation of kinks that control step propagation. The GTL is valid only if l* <Dk/vk, the diffusion path of a kink that has diffusivity Dk and average growth velocity vk. This is equivalent to supersaturations sigma less than approx. alpha/2l*, where alpha is the building block size. For lysozyme, sigma much less than (1%). Conventionally used interstep distance generated by screw dislocation, 19(omega)alpha/Delta(mu) should be replaced by the very different real one, approx.4l*. 2. Stoichiometry. Kink, and thus step and face rates of a non-Kossel complex molecular monocomponent or any binary, AB, lattice was found theoretically to be proportional to 1/(zeta(sup 1/2) + zeta(sup - 1/2)), where zeta = [B]/[A] is the stoichiometry ratio in solution. The velocities reach maxima at zeta = 1. AFM studies of step rates on CaOxalate monohydrate (kidney stones) from aqueous solution was found to obey the law mentioned above. Generalization for more complex lattice will be discussed. 3. Turbulence. In agreement with theory, high precision in-situ laser interferometry of the (101) KDP crystal face shows step bunching if solution flows parallel to the step flow. The bunch height increases with the distance the bunch travels, i.e. with the face size. However, when the flow rate, u, increases, at u greater than approx. 1 m / s , the average step bunch height decreases as 1/u. The pheonomenon is attributed to the turbulent rather than laminar viscous boundary layer where diffusivity Dt = 0.5u(sub tau),y, i.e. increases linearly with the distance y from the solid face. Friction velocity, u(sub tau) approx. u(sup 7/8). Dramatically larger rate of the mass/heat transport within the turbulent, as compared to the laminar, viscous layer will be discussed.

Chernov, A. A.↗

Building a Real-Time Flood Prediction Model for Improving Early Warning Systems in Ellicott City, Maryland

As flood events in the United States grow in frequency and intensity, the use of applied remote sensing analyses is increasingly necessary for effective flood monitoring and warning systems. The NASA DEVELOP National Program partnered with the local government of Howard County, Maryland, to investigate the use of machine learning for advanced flood risk detection, and to test the feasibility of integrating this approach into the county’s flood early warning system. To strengthen the efforts of the Howard County Office of Emergency Management (OEM), the project developed a statistical model capable of hindcasting the two severe flash flood events that devastated Ellicott City and transitioned to a ‘Long Short-Term Memory’ based sequence-to-sequence deep learning model with 8-hour forecast capability. The team combined data inputs from public sources including river and precipitation gauges, NASA and NOAA Earth observations, and numerical weather model products using scripts written in the Google Colaboratory Python scripting environment. In addition to designing the deep learning architecture, the team trained and tested the model, and evaluated its performance using Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency. The final product, the Sequentially Trained Real-time EstimAted Model (STREAM) predicts stage height for the Hudson Branch gauge in Ellicott City using data products available in near real-time, including the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model’s accumulated precipitation forecasts supplemented by stream gauge data from the OEM and the U.S. Geological Survey. STREAM was incorporated into an online dashboard in a user-friendly interface capable of triggering the alarms that initiate emergency response protocols up to 8 hours in advance of a predicted severe flood event. The project demonstrated the potential for the integration of open data and Earth observations into a flood risk forecasting tool capable of informing near real-time decision making.

NASA DEVELOP↗