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DOE OSTI2020

Readiness Evaluation for Sustained Operations

Readiness evaluation for sustained operations is a continuous function that progresses from overseeing establishment of five key programmatic elements during design and construction phases to monitoring the output of those elements performing during commissioning and operations. Continuously assessing readiness for sustained operations becomes an important business function for the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of River Protection as competition for federal funds increases with increasing waste treatment operations throughout the Office of Environmental Management complex. The five key programmatic elements are as follows: Risk management – Risks and opportunities should prioritize continuous improvement initiatives and be informed by the design and technical authorities and stakeholder monitors. Continuous improvement – All levels of the project organization should exhibit commitment to continuous improvement and learning. Continuity of design and technical authorities – The authorities are responsible for managing knowledge for its effective use in the other elements. Stakeholder monitoring – Active and deliberate monitoring of stakeholder relationships. Sustained operations integrated business planning – Integrated business planning in a federal environment competitive for congressional funding.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2022

6.26 Low Cost Basalt Fiber for Automotive Applications

Vehicle lightweighting is an essential component to the automotive industry to improve fuel economy of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to meet ever improving emission standards and to improve the range of electric vehicles (EV). Composite materials offer high specific modulus and specific strength, which makes them appealing for these light weighting efforts. Sheet molding compounds (SMC) are particularly interesting from an automotive perspective because of the relatively low cost and high volume of producing SMC parts. Traditionally, composite materials for automotive application are glass fiber reinforced because of the attractive price - performance ratio, but basalt fibers are a cost and recycling competitive reinforcement alternative in this market. The aim of this project was to examine the feasibility of utilizing basalt fiber for automotive applications. More specifically, an effort was made to examine different fiber sizings on basalt fiber combined with vinyl-ester (VE) resin, and their performance as part of an SMC process. In addition to offering vehicle lightweighting with fiber reinforced polymer composites, basalt fiber is a fully recyclable material and thus supports the IACMI technical goal of: Demonstrate that the technology is capable at a sufficient scale for >80% recyclability or reuse of fiber reinforced polymer composites in five years into useful components with projected cost and quality at commercial scale competitive with virgin materials on a pathway to 95% recyclability or reuse starting in ten years. Three different fiber sizings were applied to a continuous roving of basalt fiber and compared to a traditional Electrical/Chemical Resistance (E-CR) glass fiber that is typically used in these types of applications. Fiber tows were examined for Loss on Ignition percentage (LOI%), Tex, and tow strength. Some sizings clearly outperformed others, and the ability to process these fibers on a pilot scale SMC line was demonstrated. A test plan for the manufacturing and mechanical testing of SMC panels was developed. This work continues outside the time frame allocated for this project. When this work is completed, it will be added to this report and posted as Appendix C. Glass fiber reinforced SMC materials have already proven feasible as a light weighting method for traditionally steel parts like the Volkswagen (VW) Atlas lift-gate (Figure 1); this project team is seeking the feasibility of basalt fiber as a drop-in replacement for glass fiber reinforced SMC. Sizing development for basalt fibers has proven that the mechanical properties are better than E-glass and closer to S-glass, which makes it an interesting material for SMC applications. Better mechanical properties translate to less material needed to achieve load case requirement for target applications. The business case has already been demonstrated for 100,000 parts per year of glass fiber reinforced SMC Atlas lift-gates compared to traditional steel manufacturing processes. Reduced overhead and assembly costs are offset by glass fiber SMC higher cost per kg beyond 100,000 parts per year, which is still a relatively low volume for the automotive industry. For basalt fiber reinforced SMC to become feasible for automotive applications, the price-performance ratio has to be precisely determined. Based on the mechanical performance it is possible to establish a range of applications and technical solutions in which the potential of basalt SMC can be utilized, while the price of the material can be used to compile the business case for such applications. Based on these business cases and the sustainability indicators, glass fiber reinforcement (or other) materials can be directly substituted. Volkswagen’s commitment to reducing carbon emissions cannot be understated. Basalt fiber shows promise of reducing the carbon footprint in SMC materials, especially if sizing optimizations can be made with thermoplastic based SMC. To fully realize the value of basalt fiber reinforced materials, a lifecycle cost analysis should be performed on basalt’s production and recycling, and then compared against E-glass. From this assessment, a true judgement can be made on the commercialization potential of this material. Figure 1. Example of Fiber Reinforced Polymer Composite Liftgate As a conclusion, we can state that Mafic basalt fiber is not a direct replacement for E-glass or E-CR glass based on price, but should be considered a technical solution when E-glass does not provide adequate performance in a composite design and S-glass, aramid and carbon fibers are too costly. Mafic basalt fiber can be placed on the high-performance fiber spectrum next to S-glass for performance but at one third the price. It should be considered for more technically challenging structural designs wherein the performance can demonstrate 20-25% performance enhancement over E-glass to elicit more strength or a weight reduction. Both Michelman and Mafic produce thermoplastic sizings which, in combination with Nylon and polypropylene resin and fibers, can further advance high speed composite implementations while maintaining an eco-friendly manufacturing process.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Is Clean Hydrogen Production a Good Fit for Questa? (Final Economic Impact Results) [Slides]

The Village of Questa, New Mexico is aiming to become a regional clean energy hub with robust and diverse employment opportunities for the local community supported by the energy sector and by other businesses inspired or attracted by abundant clean energy, outdoor recreation, and cultural opportunities. A coalition of stakeholders in the Village of Questa, comprising the Village, Kit Carson Electric Cooperative (KCEC), Questa Economic Development Fund, and Chevron, is exploring options to develop hydrogen production facilities as an opportunity to create jobs, provide reliable clean energy, and utilize former mine resources. Questa is home to a molybdenum mine owned by Chevron that closed in 2014. Several residents in Questa and surrounding communities lost their jobs when the mine closed and transitioned from active operations into environmental remediation. Although remediation efforts have been ongoing since 2014 and are expected to continue for at least 16 more years, the number of jobs with Chevron is much smaller now than it was before the closure. Between available workforce, brownfield land, and water rights formerly supporting mine operations but now in a transition period, there are considerable local resources that could be directed toward clean energy generation. Questa's electricity supply is already 100% solar during daylight hours thanks to Kit Carson Electric Cooperative's (KCEC's) strategic decision-making and partnering over the last decade. Now, Questa, KCEC, and Chevron are exploring the potential costs and benefits of siting an electrolytic hydrogen production facility and additional solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity in Questa to further advance the region's clean energy economy. In this report, we estimated the potential economic impacts (i.e., jobs, value added, gross output, tax revenue) of constructing and operating a combined hydrogen (32 MW polymer electrolyte membrane electrolizer + 7.5 MW fuel cell) and solar facility (22.5 MW) in the Village of Questa, as well as the resulting economic spillovers to Taos County and the state of New Mexico. We employ an input-output model that leverages IMPLAN's economic data for the region complemented by construction and operating expenses estimated by NREL and feedback from the local coalition to evaluate the direct, indirect and induced effects of the project construction (transient impacts) and operation (more permanent impacts). Based on the area's average trade profile, feedback from the coalition and current market conditions, these projects are expected to support 487 full-time equivalent jobs during construction, generating $\$24$ million in income for those workers and $\$82$ million in local economic activity in the state. Of those jobs, 106 are expected to be construction sector jobs. These investments are also estimated to add $\$36.5$ million to New Mexico's gross state product (GSP). In the Village of Questa, we estimate 16 jobs will be supported in construction and transportation industries, generating $\$0.9$ million in earnings. In Taos County, the construction phase is expected to support 285 jobs primarily in construction and professional services, while manufacturing jobs dominate the results for the Rest of New Mexico. The Village is also estimated to receive $\$0.9$ million in tax revenue from the construction phase alone. Once in operation, the project continues to impact the state and Questa. Around 20 jobs (full-time equivalent for each year of operation) are supported across New Mexico, with approximately 11 directly employed in Questa by both facilities. The total annual local economic activity supported by ongoing operations is just over $\$1.3$ million/yr, generating $\$1.6$ million/yr in additional income in the state. Annual operations are estimated to add $\$2.1$ million to the state's GSP. The Village is expected to receive around $\$43,000$/yr in tax revenue. Impacts vary significantly depending on which businesses are supplying materials, equipment and services, and where construction workers reside. Choosing local suppliers will most benefit Questa and the New Mexico economy, adding up to 500 jobs during construction and 13 long-term jobs. Local and state governments may consider ways to incentivize local businesses in order to maximize economic benefits.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2024

Is Clean Hydrogen Production a Good Fit for Questa? Final Economic Impact Results

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2020

Markov Process to Evaluate the Value Proposition of a Risk-Informed Predictive Maintenance Strategy

To achieve high-capacity factors, the nuclear fleet has relied on labor-intensive and time-consuming operation and preventive maintenance programs for plant systems. Manually performed inspection, calibration, testing, and maintenance of plant assets at periodic frequencies, along with time-based replacement of assets irrespective of condition, have resulted in a costly, labor-centric business model. Fortunately, there are technologies that can eliminate unnecessary preventive maintenance activities by deploying risk-informed predictive maintenance, enabling the transition to a technology-centric business model. The technology-centric business model will enable plants to optimize and automate maintenance activities, leading to cost reductions since labor is a rising cost and technology is a declining cost. The implementation of scalable technologies and methodologies across plant systems and across the nuclear fleet is critical for successful deployment of a risk-informed predictive maintenance strategy at commercial nuclear power plants. The work presented in the report is being developed as part of a collaborative research effort between Idaho National Laboratory and Public Service Enterprise Group Nuclear, LLC. This report describes the technical basis using the Markov Process to evaluate the value proposition for the risk-informed predictive maintenance strategy for the circulating water system. The plant process data from the Salem nuclear plant’s circulating water system is utilized to develop a Markov chain risk models and formulation to estimate the loss and gain in revenue based on plant availability. The outcomes presented in this report provides the technical basis for extensive quantitative evaluation of a scalable risk-informed predictive maintenance strategy as part of future research.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2026

U.S. Research Impact Alliance IMPACT Accelerator

The U.S. Research Impact Alliance (USRIA) was created with a vision to leverage successful models that accelerate technology development and commercialization, and support startup businesses based upon federal research investments. Building upon lessons learned and feedback from cohort teams, the USRIA programs have morphed into customized solutions that offer services which provide the most impact to startup businesses. Based upon discussions with small and startup businesses, entrepreneurs, and technology developers, a variety of resources have been developed to support each of these target audiences. USRIA created program differentiators to offer one-on-one engagement and direct communication with cohort teams, highly relevant conversations with targeted introductions, and minimal “class” time (only used when an issue is applicable to all cohort members).

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Automation of Solid Oxyde Electrolyzer Cell (SOEC) & Stack Assembly

The work performed under this agreement before the No/Go decision amounted to the following: 1. Preliminary manufacturing requirements defined by business sensitivity, baseline processes & risk assessment; 2. Process & materials development, in-line gauge exploration, and preliminary automation work used to reduce risk & further refine equipment specifications; 3. “Request for Quote” issued to multiple suppliers for major equipment; 4. Application specific equipment, hardware, and fixturing will be more beneficial to fabricate inhouse; 5.Current proposals & estimates meet cycle time, capital spend, & direct labor; space is on target but requires awareness; 6. Team will continue to explore opportunities to reduce risk (dry time, traceability); 7. Go / No-Go, Purchase Orders, Equipment build & commissioning next All other future task were not completed because during the Go /No-Go decision it was confirmed this project was a "No-Go" and did not proceed past BP1; these included the following: 1. Preliminary manufacturing requirements defined by business sensitivity, baseline processes & risk assessment; 2. Process & materials development, in-line gauge exploration, and preliminary automation work used to reduce risk & further refine equipment specifications; 3. “Request for Quote” issued to multiple suppliers for major equipment; 4. Application specific equipment, hardware, and fixturing will be more beneficial to fabricate inhouse; 5. Current proposals & estimates meet cycle time, capital spend, & direct labor; space is on target but requires awareness; 6. Team will continue to explore opportunities to reduce risk (dry time, traceability) In final preparation of the termination of the Automation of Solid Oxyde Electrolyzer Cell (SOEC) & Stack Assembly, Cummins has purchased no equipment with government funds, and there is no government-owned property in Cummins possession related to this project. Minimal labor and travel were completed and paid. This acts as the Final technical report and concludes our business with DOE on this grant.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Grand challenges in the digitalisation of wind energy

The availability of large amounts of data is starting to impact how the wind energy community works. From turbine design to plant layout, construction, commissioning, and maintenance and operations, new processes and business models are springing up. This is the process of digitalisation, and it promises improved efficiency and greater insight, ultimately leading to increased energy capture and significant savings for wind plant operators, thus reducing the levelised cost of energy. Digitalisation is also impacting research, where it is both easing and speeding up collaboration, as well as making research results more accessible. This is the basis for innovations that can be taken up by end users. But digitalisation faces barriers. This paper uses a literature survey and the results from an expert elicitation to identify three common industry-wide barriers to the digitalisation of wind energy. Comparison with other networked industries and past and ongoing initiatives to foster digitalisation show that these barriers can only be overcome by wide-reaching strategic efforts, and so we see these as “grand challenges” in the digitalisation of wind energy. They are, first, creating FAIR data frameworks; secondly, connecting people and data to foster innovation; and finally, enabling collaboration and competition between organisations. The grand challenges in the digitalisation of wind energy thus include a mix of technical, cultural, and business aspects that will need collaboration between businesses, academia, and government to solve. Working to mitigate them is the beginning of a dynamic process that will position wind energy as an essential part of a global clean energy future.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Development of Two-Phase Dense Fluid Expander for Advanced Cryogenic Air Separation and Low-Grade Heat Recovery

Cryogenic air separation represents the state-of-the-art technology to produce oxygen to feed coal gasification units. Given the maturity of this technology, it is difficult to identify opportunities to improve process efficiency and reduce the cost of the oxygen produced. However, Air Products conducted research and a feasibility investigation into the use of a two-phase (liquid-vapor) dense fluid expander (DFE) to improve the overall efficiency of cryogenic air separation. Demonstration of this novel concept was intended to allow two important process improvements: 1) elimination of the need for the DFE discharge to be single phase 2) expansion of the operating region of expanders in ASU service. Expanding the scope of turboexpander application beyond current application limits and traditional device designs would allow an increase in power recovery, and application of refrigeration and power recovery at new locations in process cycles would also enable the implementation of new process concepts. These new process concepts include power recovery from compression waste heat and refrigeration extraction and power recovery by replacing let-down valves with two-phase DFEs. Considering the maturity of cryogenic air separation, these new process options could represent a step change in power reduction and provide significant savings in operating costs. These new concepts would be particularly well-suited to large-scale oxygen production by cryogenic air separation and would enhance the economics of producing oxygen for use in coal gasification processes. Rotoflow, an Air Products business unit, manufactures dense fluid expanders in Pennsylvania for sites around the world. This project was executed in two phases, which are illustrated in Figure 1 below. Phase 1 consisted of a feasibility investigation of multiple applications of two-phase DFEs. In Phase 2, devices were identified, designed, fabricated and tested to explore the feasibility of commercial applications of DFEs operating in two-phase service. Engineering and testing were performed by personnel in Air Products’ Rotoflow business unit, with coordination with other Air Products business units.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2020

Market Segmentation Analysis of Medium and Heavy Duty Trucks with a Fuel Cell Emphasis

The medium- and heavy-duty transportation sector is experiencing rapid changes in powertrain technology innovation with recent announcements of battery electric and fuel cell electric trucks being offered. However, the economics of these alternative powertrain vehicles are uncertain and difficult to compare directly. This analysis seeks to bridge the gap of techno-economic analyses for these alternative powertrain vehicles by comparing all of them within the same analytic framework. Specifically, this report evaluates the total cost of ownership (TCO) of six different truck powertrain technologies (diesel, diesel hybrid-electric, plug-in hybrid electric, compressed natural gas, battery electric, and fuel cell electric) for three different truck vocations (Class 8 long haul [750 mile range], Class 8 short haul [300 mile range], and Class 4 parcel delivery), for different Department of Energy technology statuses (2018, 2025, and Ultimate). The TCO framework includes direct costs (purchase price, fuel, operating and maintenance), indirect costs (dwell time costs due to refueling/recharging and payload opportunity costs from forgone revenue due to the truck being weight-limited), but excludes general operation costs (driver wages and benefits, insurance, tire replacements, permits, tolls) that are assumed to be the same across powertrains. The TCO was evaluated for four scenarios that reflect typical business operating conditions. The TCO analysis results highlight that each powertrain technology may have an economic advantage on a TCO basis in certain business operating conditions and depending on fuel price realized. For Class 8 long haul trucks when payload opportunity costs are not incurred, battery electric and fuel cell electric powertrains could be cost competitive with diesel if the 2025 targets are achieved and fuel prices are low. If payload opportunity costs are incurred, battery electric powertrains are not estimated to reach TCO parity with diesel even if Ultimate targets and low electricity prices are realized, indicating a need for significant vehicle lightweighting. In Class 8 short haul commercial applications when payload opportunity costs are not incurred, battery electric, fuel cell electric, and compressed natural gas vehicle powertrains have very competitive TCOs with diesel if the 2025 targets are achieved. In Class 8 short haul commercial applications when payload opportunity costs are incurred, the battery electric vehicle powertrains can achieve TCO parity with diesel only if the Ultimate battery prices are met ($80/kWh). In Class 4 parcel delivery truck operating scenarios where there are no dwell time costs incurred, the plug-in hybrid electric vehicle, battery electric vehicle, and fuel cell electric vehicle could be cost-competitive with diesel and compressed natural gas with current (2018) technology performance and costs. In general, the payload opportunity costs can be a significant driver to TCO for the Class 8 long and short haul commercial vehicle applications while the dwell time costs could be a major TCO cost driver for the Class 4 parcel delivery vehicle if the business scenario realizes those costs.

advanced powertrains↗

DOE OSTI2020

Opportunities to Implement Solutions to Achieve Remedial Action Objectives in Consideration of Stakeholder Interests - 20365

A case study in the implementation of a soils excavation and removal project conducted at a Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program (FUSRAP) Maywood Superfund Site (FMSS) vicinity property; an active commercial business, in a densely populated area, with significant operational, technical and, logistical constraints that were expected to limit areas that could be remediated. The United States Army Corps of Engineers-led (USACE) team successfully navigated complex overlapping stakeholder interests to achieve a more efficient and complete removal of contaminated soils and debris while minimizing unnecessary excess costs to the Government. This paper centers on FUSRAP activities at the FMSS vicinity property located at 149-151 Maywood Avenue, Maywood, Bergen County, New Jersey. For most of its FUSRAP history, this ∼109,000 square meter (27-acre) property housed a now-demolished ∼26,000 square meter (6.5-acre) warehouse operated by Sears Logistics Services, a unit of the Sears Roebuck Company (Figure 2). Sears ended its property lease and vacated the warehouse in December 2016. Given that long history and for the purposes of this paper, the property will be referred to as the 'Sears property' or simply 'the property.' The Sears property is approximately 109,000 square meters (27-acres) and is currently zoned for commercial use. The property is bound to the north and northwest by 100 West Hunter Avenue (the Stepan Company), to the northeast by 205 Maywood Avenue, to the east by Maywood Avenue, to the south by 23 West Howcroft Road, and to the west by businesses on NJ Route 17 and the NJ Route 17 roadway. Until December 2016, the property housed a warehouse and distribution center operated by Sears Logistical Services. On-site structures were demolished by the property owner in 2017. The warehouse covered the north section of the property along the Stepan Company property line. A railroad spur from the adjacent property now known as the Maywood Interim Storage Site (MISS) ended at the northeast corner of the warehouse. Wetlands were located east of the warehouse; the rest of the property was covered with paved parking lots and grassed areas. During remediation at the property, opportunities frequently arose where the project team was able to coordinate effectively with stakeholders to sequence remediation activities to facilitate removal of otherwise inaccessible soils and identify opportunities for materials reuse when supported by residual radiological and chemical levels. Some specific opportunities include: - remediating individual truck loading dock bays to maintain tenant operations; - working along a busy highway and in a utility corridor containing a 30-inch high pressure gas main; - remediating Lodi Brook and associated wetlands requiring bypass pumping and other diversionary structures to maintain local community stormwater drainage; - protecting during remediation and supporting access to facilitate tenant/owner maintenance of critical fire protection and water supply system service lines buried in contaminated soils and necessary for safe warehouse operations; and - coordinating with stakeholders to ensure non-radiological contaminants of concern for the site (unaffiliated with FUSRAP) were addressed by the responsible party in a manner that maximized benefit to all parties while supporting an efficient overall site remediation program. Once the property was vacant and the warehouse structure and radiologically non-impacted above-grade structures were demolished, the project identified an opportunity to significantly reduce the volume of waste associated with the foundation of the former warehouse, a foundation suspected of being partially constructed in radiologically contaminated soils. The project developed and implemented supplemental radiological verification survey and sampling strategies based on radiological cross-contamination risk potential with process flow-charts and screening-level based decision points; a program that classified saw-cut sections of concrete based on observed residual surface radioactivity conditions using a combination of gamma sensitive sodium-iodide scans and beta sensitive Geiger-Muller direct measurements. The proposed approach was reviewed with stakeholders with feedback, including consideration of applicable State of New Jersey Site Remediation Program criteria and guidance before implementation. Once classified, additional sampling was performed at frequencies driven by screening. The sampling methods, stockpile sampling frequencies, criteria and, approach to data evaluation were developed in consideration of existing site cleanup standards, regional background ranges, State of New Jersey radiological remediation program guidance, and specific stakeholder input With the property remediation and survey efforts nearly completed, it is relevant to examine retrospectively the objectives, assumptions and limitations in the remedial design (i.e., what was planned) versus what was able to be accomplished through effective teaming. Benefits to other environmental remediation site programs include better understanding of how to work effectively with stakeholders to achieve win-win outcomes, and approaches to site remediation, waste minimization and materials reuse that were successful in their overall outcomes. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2022

Decarbonizing the Building Sector: A Human-Centered Study Focused on Small/Light Commercial Building Energy Equity

Decarbonization of the building sector is no small feat; buildings account for 40% of primary energy consumption, and fossil-fuel combustion in buildings leads to roughly 30% of total greenhouse gas emissions. Energy efficiency, electrification and smart technologies are fundamental strategies to reduce consumption and shift away from fossil-fuel use in buildings. This energy transition carries significant societal risks unless the shift is carried out with equity and justice as a top priority. Low-income, vulnerable and communities of color have higher energy burdens compared to affluent populations. Furthermore, systemic racism and historic exclusionary policies have resulted in increased risks (environmental, climatic, economic, and social) to low-income and communities of color, and underserved communities often do not have financial resources for, or access to, advanced building technologies. The U.S. Department of Energy is funding research to characterize and develop solutions to the challenges of equity and justice that complicate the ability of communities to contribute to goals for decarbonization. Our project has a specific focus on small commercial buildings and the businesses that occupy them. Significantly less is known about the burdens and risks these businesses experience or the challenges they face in pursuing decarbonization, or how those are affected by income and race, in comparison to research on energy equity and justice for diverse households. The project team includes the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Arizona State University and Clark Atlanta University. Researchers are conducting semi-structured interviews with small business owners in underserved communities in Phoenix and Atlanta, followed by a survey distributed to the larger community to learn more about the equity and justice issues that communities with different racial, economic, and cultural backgrounds face. Results will help inform an actionable and replicable framework for engaging small commercial building owners/operators to catalyze the reduction of energy burdens and increase equity.

Antonopoulos, Chrissi A.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Modeling Cyber Supply Chain Incidents with Multilayered Graph Motifs

As noted within the literature, supply chain includes people and organizations---manufacturers, integrators, and third-party vendors---that are involved in one or more stages of a product lifecycle. Since supply chains, by definition, include organizations and people, supply chain risk management activities must consider dependencies between an organization's business processes and third-party resources. Just as adversarial tactics can be implemented via techniques implemented via networked computer systems, so can such tactics be expressed via legal business relationships. A cyber incident may have an exponential impact downstream, for example, by leveraging a product's distribution channel (e.g. malicious updates in SolarWinds, buggy updates in CrowdStrike). Similarly, legitimate and legal business relationships also affect the attack surface exposure of systems, enabling long-term persistence and/or unknown impacts to product quality that are hard to detect. This paper catalogs several recent digital supply chain incidents and applies a multilayered network formalism to develop structural indicators (graph motifs) that reflect potentially-adversarial behavior. Finally, we compare and contrast the characteristics of adversarial tactics (e.g. Loss of Availability, Data Collection) that leverage cyber-physical dependencies to those that leverage legal organizational relationships.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

PSA 2025 DPRA for Cyber Optimization

Cyberattacks can have many different attack paths, durations, and goals. There are also many different mitigation options involving hardware, software, and/or humans. Evaluating defense options should include quantitative evaluation of overall effectiveness to make cost and risk-informed decisions. Typical cyberattack modeling methods only provide a qualitative evaluation and have difficulty with time dependent scenarios. The main areas of cybersecurity are confidentiality, integrity, and availability. For companies with cyber-physical systems such as advanced nuclear reactors, cyber-related integrity is a requirement set by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. But companies are also concerned about availability or reliability as a business case. As cyber threats are evolving to a business-for-hire structure, more attacks focus on disrupting business success and reliability, causing financial and economic stability risk. Companies want reliability analysis while optimizing cost, which requires more than safety modeling methods. Dynamic-state-based and Markov-based modeling provides a method for better cyber scenario modeling with timing and conditional features not found in other numerical evaluation methods. EMRALD (Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Lined Diagrams) is a dynamic risk analysis modeling and simulation tool and has features that reduce modeling issues such as state-base explosion found in Markov-based tools. It has been used to model different time-dependent events including plant behavior and operator procedures. As a general modeling tool, EMRALD can also be used to model cyberattack scenarios with varying mitigation options and quantify effectiveness, producing numerical data for risk-informed decisions. This paper uses EMRALD to demonstrate that dynamic risk analysis can be used for cyber threat modeling to provide insights for design decision-making and optimize defense strategies.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Safety-Related Instrumentation and Control Pilot Upgrade (Initial Scoping Phase Implementation Report)

This research report (1) describes the process followed and products developed during the SR I&C Pilot Project Initial Scoping Phase, and (2) captures lessons learned. Exelon Generation and LWRS collaborated to develop a Digital Transformation Strategy as part of a larger Advanced Concept of Operations. The proposed SR I&C Pilot Upgrade provides a foundation stone for this Digital Transformation that will improve plant safety, reliability, and operational performance while lowering plant Total Cost of Ownership (TCO). Initial Scoping Phase activities for this Pilot Project have been performed in accordance with industry processes that have been adapted to better support digital upgrades. These processes include IP-ENG-001, Standard Design Process (SDP), NISP-EN-04, Standard Digital Engineering Process (SDEP), and Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) Report 3002011816, Digital Engineering Guide (DEG). Completing Initial Scoping Phase Engineering and Operations, Licensing, and Project Management Activities was necessary to sufficiently bound the scope, schedule, and estimated cost of the Project to enable utility management to authorize moving into the Conceptual Design Phase. A significant finding of the Business Case Analysis (BCA) methodology developed and applied as part of this effort was that the growth rate of material costs for sustaining the operation of obsolete SR I&C equipment is accelerating. This directly contributed to the Project Economic Analysis created to justify continuing the Project. Project Initial Scoping Phase lessons learned have also been captured to assist the larger industry in understanding the Digital Transformation Strategy and SR I&C Pilot Project Initial Scoping Phase efforts. This is in keeping with the public/private partnership that has been established between the Department of Energy (DOE) and Exelon for this effort with engagement from the NRC. By addressing first-of-a-kind (FOAK) risks and capturing lessons learned, the SR I&C Pilot Upgrade Project addresses technical, regulatory, and business risks to enable subsequent implementers of similar upgrade.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Virtual Power Plants and Energy Justice

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's (FERC) Order 2222, issued in September 2020, removes barriers for distributed energy resources (DERs) to participate in wholesale energy markets by allowing DERs to aggregate and participate in wholesale markets as a single entity, known as a virtual power plant (VPP). VPPs can provide balancing, reliability, and resiliency grid services and can participate in capacity, energy and ancillary services markets. They can also increase customer energy access and lower electricity bills. This report focuses on VPP business models, including considerations of energy justice (EJ). Through an analysis of the VPP value chain, business models, programs, and pilots, several VPP applications are identified and grouped by their ability to have quantitatively measurable or monetized benefits. Benefits and barriers specific to underserved communities are outlined, and VPP programs with an intentional focus on underserved communities are compared to those without such a focus.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Coalition for Community-Supported Affordable Geothermal Energy Systems (C2SAGES)

The C2SAGES project evaluated the feasibility of a community geothermal system for the planned Windy Ridge affordable housing development in Hinesburg, Vermont. Led by GTI Energy with Vermont Gas Systems, LN Consulting, NREL, and Frontier Energy, the work assessed technical design, energy performance, costs, business models, community engagement, maintenance, workforce development, and permitting. The proposed system was designed to serve 100% of the development’s heating, cooling, and domestic hot water loads. Compared with a baseline using air-source heat pumps and natural gas water heating, the geothermal system was estimated to reduce HVAC and domestic hot water energy use by about 45% to 48%, lower operating and maintenance costs, and reduce 30-year life-cycle costs by 37% for Phase 1 and 10% for Phase 2. Technical testing and modeling indicated that the Windy Ridge site is suitable for a community-scale geothermal system. The project also developed borehole field layouts, piping concepts, pump house designs, controls, maintenance plans, and supporting engineering drawings. The business model analysis found that first cost, ownership structure, and customer affordability remain major deployment challenges. Utility-led maintenance and operation were viewed favorably, but traditional utility cost-recovery models may require subsidy or revised financing structures to be practical for affordable housing. Community engagement highlighted the need for clear public education, transparent financing, reliable long-term maintenance, trained technicians, and the potential to pair geothermal systems with weatherization. Overall, the report concludes that community geothermal is technically feasible and offers meaningful energy, emissions, and life-cycle cost benefits, but broader deployment will depend on workable financing models and workforce readiness.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Assessment of Economic Viability of Direct Current Fast Charging Infrastructure Investments for Electric Vehicles in the United States

As the global transportation sector increasingly adopts electric vehicles, the demand for advanced and accessible charging infrastructure is rising. In addition to at-home electric vehicle (EV) charging, there is a growing need for the swift development of commercial direct current fast charging (DCFC) stations to meet on-the-go EV charging demands. While government funds are available to support the expansion of the EV charging network in the United States, the establishment of a robust nationwide EV charging infrastructure requires significant private sector investment. This study was conducted to assess the economic feasibility of various business models for fast charging stations in the U.S. using two case studies and exploring different operational strategies including sole ownership and collaborative ventures with public and private entities. The results indicate that based on the current adoption and utilization rates in the U.S., the business model involving an owner-operator collaborating with a public partner ensures profitability and protects the investment in DCFC stations from financial losses. The study also highlights that demand charges and electricity retail prices are the factors that affect the profitability of a DCFC station.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗