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At least 127 records · Page 7

Insights into the mechanisms controlling the residual corrosion rate of borosilicate glasses

Borosilicate glasses are widely used to confine high-level radioactive wastes. The lifetime of these materials could reach hundreds of thousands of years if leaching of the glass into groundwater enables the formation of a passivating gel layer. Even in this regime, the glass will never stop corroding as thermodynamic equilibrium between glass and solution cannot be achieved. Therefore, accurate predictions of glass durability including passivation, require a deep understanding of the mechanisms controlling the so-called residual rate. However, despite tremendous efforts, these mechanisms remain poorly understood. Here, focusing on the behavior of the soluble elements of the International Simple Glass (B, Na, and Ca), we show that the residual rate is controlled by the behavior of B, a glass former supposed to dissolve instantaneously when in contact with water and thus widely considered as an ideal tracer. We then demonstrate that B release is controlled by multiple processes highly dependent on the pH. At the beginning of the passivating layer formation, the hydrolysis of B-O-Si linkages is rate-limiting and has an activation energy of ~60 kJ mol –1 , a value slightly lower than that for breaking Si-O-Si linkages. Once the fraction of closed pores resulting from gel restructuring is high enough, then diffusion of both reactants (water molecules) and some products (mainly B aq , Ca aq ) through the growing gel layer becomes rate-limiting. Consequently, B and Ca accumulate in an inner layer referred to as the active zone, with potential feedback on the B-O-Si hydrolysis. A new paradigm, including B as a key element of the system, is proposed to develop a comprehensive model for the corrosion of borosilicate glass.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Wilson Corners Solid Waste Management Unit (SWMU) 001: 2021 Annual Long-Term Monitoring Report, Kennedy Space Center, Florida

This report presents a summary of the long-term monitoring (LTM) activities that occurred in 2021 at Wilson Corners, Solid Waste Management Unit (SWMU) 001, at Kennedy Space Center (KSC), Florida. The site is monitored under KSC’s Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) Corrective Action Program. Adaptive site management is being utilized through ongoing assessment, design, and interim measures (IM). Annual LTM of the groundwater is also being conducted at the site. This approach also meets the requirements of Chapter 62-780, Florida Administrative Code (F.A.C.). The goal of LTM at this site is threefold: to determine groundwater flow characteristics, monitor the downgradient concentration trends, and monitor select locations internal to the groundwater plume. Every 5 years, upgradient and side-gradient monitoring wells are sampled to verify delineation. The last time this was performed was in 2015. The sampling of these wells in 2020 was replaced with the direct push technology (DPT) investigations completed in October 2020 and April 2021. This DPT groundwater data was presented in an Advance Data Package (ADP) in September 2021 and discussed in the Implementation Work Plan (IWP) dated November 2021 for installation of an air sparge (AS) system. Based on results from groundwater sampling activities performed during the previous reporting period, including the 2020 and 2021 DPT groundwater sampling, it was determined that the LTM sampling plan was no longer meeting the goal of LTM because delineation was not verified. The 2021 LTM sampling plan was modified to include the sampling of monitoring wells located around the perimeter of the low concentration plume (LCP); the area with concentrations of contaminants of concern [COCs] greater than Groundwater Cleanup Target Levels [GCTLs]), and sampling of 10 monitoring wells proposed for installation (April 2021 KSC Remediation Team (KSCRT) Meeting, Decision 2104-D32). The modified LTM plan received team consensus at the September 2021 KSCRT Meeting (Decision Number 2109-D03), and sampling of the existing monitoring wells was completed in December 2021. The proposed monitoring wells are planned for installation in late 2022, concurrent with ongoing IM construction activities. December 2021 LTM data was presented at the May 2022 KSCRT Meeting, and activities are summarized in this report. The activities presented in this report include the December 2021 groundwater gauging of 42 monitoring wells and sampling of 44 monitoring wells. During the December 2021 event, the low flow sampling method was used, and samples were analyzed for a select list of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), including 1,1,2-trichloro-1,2,2-trifluoroethane (Freon 113). The following conclusions can be made based on the 2021 LTM results: - In December 2021, groundwater flow for the site was generally to the west at all intervals. This is generally consistent with historical observations at the site, with the exception of a southwest and southeast flow component observed at 34 to 48 feet below land surface (bls). - The vertical extent of VOCs was historically delineated by monitoring wells screened greater than 48 feet bls. The results from the two vertical extent monitoring wells, WILC-MW0078 (screened 65 to 70 feet bls) and WILC-MW0130 (screened 56 to 66 feet bls) that were sampled during the 2021 LTM indicate that groundwater vinyl chloride (VC) concentrations in both wells were greater than the GCTL. The Remediation Team has previously agreed to delay deeper DPT investigations in this area to prevent the creation of additional pathways for vertical migration. - The LCP continues to extend both horizontally, predominantly to the west, and vertically beyond the current monitoring well network, with some retraction observed to the southeast. Evaluation of this data combined with data from the 2020 and 2021 DPT sampling event indicate that the LCP encompasses an estimated 20.7 acres based on an expanded sampling area, as compared to the 2020 LCP footprint of 17.0 acres. - Freon 113 was not detected above GCTLs during the 2021 LTM event. Based on groundwater sampling activities performed in 2021, including April 2021 DPT groundwater sampling, the following recommendations are provided: - Perform the next LTM sampling event, targeted to occur in 2023, concurrently with the IM baseline sampling prior to AS system installation; - Include sampling from nine monitoring wells that are planned to be installed in late 2022, concurrent with upcoming IM construction activities. Installation of one deep vertical well, screened 70 to 80 feet bls, will be delayed to prevent the creation of an additional pathway for vertical migration; - Continue to sample under the modified annual LTM plan as presented in Table 4-1 concurrently with IM baseline sampling; and - Once the AS system install and start-up is complete, select monitoring wells from the LTM program will transition into the performance monitoring plan, and LTM will be temporarily discontinued. Performance monitoring will be performed quarterly, and the monitoring well network will be evaluated following the first performance monitoring sampling event.

long-term monitoring (LTM)↗

Automated Framework for Groundwater Monitoring Using DWT with LSTM and Transformers

Environmental monitoring is critical for safeguarding public health and ecological well-being. Traditional data structuring and workflow monitoring methods consume significant time and effort, hindering timely insights and effective decision-making. Our study addresses this challenge by presenting an AI framework that automates data cleaning, structuring, and modeling processes, specifically targeting applications in groundwater monitoring. By leveraging automation for data processing and model training, our framework establishes a novel and efficient paradigm for environmental monitoring, with its potential application to the vast network of over a hundred Department of Energy Environmental Management (DoE-EM) cleanup sites across the country. It analyzes data streams from a network of groundwater Internet-of-Things (IoT) sensors deployed at the Savannah River Site (SRS) for prediction modeling. This allows human experts to focus on analysis and decision-making, ultimately leading to better environmental outcomes.The framework employs multivariate time-series forecasting methods to study and model the behavior of varying chemical analytes. The continuous learning process is enabled by utilizing deep learning techniques. It allows the framework to become more nuanced in its analysis over time, adapting to the specific characteristics of the environmental site and the evolving nature of contaminant behavior. Deep learning models known for sequence modeling, LSTM, and Transformers are employed for time series forecasting. Data processing and structuring are essential components significantly impacting the final model's performance. This hypothesis was proven by presenting a comparative analysis of model performance with processed and unprocessed data. The feature engineering approach utilized was the Discrete Wavelet Transform, which works well with time series data.

Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT)↗

Application of unsupervised deep learning to image segmentation and in-situ contact angle measurements in a CO 2 -water-rock system

Rock surface wettability is a critical property that regulates multiphase flows in porous media, which can be quantified using the surface contact angle (CA). X-ray micro-computed tomography (μCT) provides an effective approach to in-situ measurements of surface CAs. However, the CA measurement accuracy depends significantly on the quality of CT image segmentation, which is the clustering of CT pixels into separate phases. Inspired by this, we developed a deep learning (DL)-based CA measurement workflow. Motivated by the recent tremendous progress in unsupervised learning techniques and aiming to avoid expensive manual data annotations, an unsupervised DL pipeline for CT image segmentation was proposed and implemented, which includes unsupervised model training and post-processing. The unsupervised model training was driven by a novel loss function constrained with feature similarity and spatial continuity and implemented by iterative forward and backward paths; the former clustered the pixel-wise feature vectors extracted by convolution neural networks, whereas the latter updated the parameters using gradient descent. An over-segmentation strategy was adopted for model training. The post-processing steps based on agglomerative hierarchical clustering (AHC) were implemented to further merge the over-segmented model output to the desired cluster number, which is intended to improve the efficiency of image segmentation. The developed unsupervised DL pipeline was compared with other commonly-used image segmentation methods using pixel-wise and physics-based evaluation metrics on a synthetic raw-image dataset, which had a known ground truth. The unsupervised DL pipeline showed the best performance. Next, the segmented images were input to an automatic CA measurement tool, and the results were validated by comparisons with manual measurements. The CA values from the manual and automatic measurements showed similar distributions and statistical properties. The automatic measurement demonstrated a wider spectrum because of the much larger number of measurement data points. The primary novelty of the unsupervised DL pipeline developed in this study lies in the novel loss function and the over-segmentation strategy associated with AHC post-processing. Finally, the workflow has been proven an efficient tool for pore-scale wettability characterization, which has a wide range of applications in fundamental studies of multiphase flows in natural porous media, which have critical implications to geological carbon sequestration, hydrocarbon energy recovery, and contaminant transport in groundwater.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Leveraging Groundwater Dynamics to Improve Predictions of Summer Low-Flow Discharges

Summer streamflow predictions are critical for managing water resources; however, warming-induced shifts from snow to rain regimes impact low-flow predictive models. Additionally, reductions in snowpack drive earlier peak flows and lower summer flows across the western United States increasing reliance on groundwater for maintaining summer streamflow. However, it remains poorly understood how groundwater contributions vary interannually. Here, we quantify recession limb groundwater (RLGW), defined as the proportional groundwater contribution to the stream during the period between peak stream flow and low flow, to predict summer low flows across three diverse western US watersheds. We ask (a) how do snow and rain dynamics influence interannual variations of RLGW contributions and summer low flows?; (b) which watershed attributes impact the effectiveness of RLGW as a predictor of summer low flows? Linear models reveal that RLGW is a strong predictor of low flows across all sites and drastically improves low-flow prediction compared to snow metrics at a rain-dominated site. Results suggest that strength of RLGW control on summer low flows may be mediated by subsurface storage. Subsurface storage can be divided into dynamic (i.e., variability saturated) and deep (i.e., permanently saturated) components, and we hypothesize that interannual variability in dynamic storage contribution to streamflow drives RLGW variability. In systems with a higher proportion of dynamic storage, RLGW is a better predictor of summer low flow because the stream is more responsive to dynamic storage contributions compared to deep-storage-dominated systems. Overall, including RLGW improved low-flow prediction across diverse watersheds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impact of salinity origin on microbial communities in saline springs within the Illinois Basin, USA

Abstract Saline springs within the Illinois Basin result from the discharge of deep‐seated evaporated seawater (brine) and likely contain diverse and complex microbial communities that are poorly understood. In this study, seven saline/mineral springs with different geochemical characteristics and salinity origins were investigated using geochemical and molecular microbiological analyses to reveal the composition of microbial communities inhabiting springs and their key controlling factors. The 16S rRNA sequencing results demonstrated that each spring harbours a unique microbial community influenced by its geochemical properties and subsurface conditions. The microbial communities in springs that originated from Cambrian/Ordovician strata, which are deep confined units that have limited recharge from overlying formations, share a greater similarity in community composition and have a higher species richness and more overlapped taxa than those that originated from shallower Pennsylvanian strata, which are subject to extensive regional surface and groundwater recharge. The microbial distribution along the spring flow paths at the surface indicates that 59.8%–94.2% of total sequences in sedimentary samples originated from spring water, highlighting the role of springs in influencing microbiota in the immediate terrestrial environment. The results indicate that the springs introduce microbiota with a high biodiversity into surface terrestrial or aquatic ecosystems, potentially affecting microbial reservoirs in downstream ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

MODFLOW6 models used to evaluate potential stresses and hydrologic conditions driving water-level fluctuations in well ER-5-3-2, Frenchman Flat, Southern Nevada

The hydrograph for well ER-5-3-2 in Frenchman Flat, southern Nevada, has previously unexplained water-level fluctuations. Four, three-dimensional, groundwater models (MODFLOW 6) were developed to evaluate potential stresses and hydrologic conditions affecting the well ER-5-3-2 hydrograph. Four model scenarios were developed that simulated: (1) wellbore leakage without recharge, (2) wellbore leakage with recharge, (3) shallow (low transmissivity) and deep (high transmissivity) carbonate rocks, and (4) lateral heterogeneity of carbonate rocks. Input and output files for the four model scenarios are in the model and output directories, respectively. Hydraulic conductivity, specific storage, and wellbore-leakage rates (when simulated) were estimated with parameter estimation (PEST) by minimizing a weighted composite, sum-of-squares objective function. The objective function was informed by measurement and Tikhonov regularization observations. Measurement observations included drawdowns from the constant-rate aquifer test and water-level altitudes measured in well ER-5-3-2 from 2001-2021. Tikhonov regularization informed hydraulic conductivity and specific storage parameters that were insensitive to measurement observations, where homogeneity was the preferred relation. Batch files, executables, and MODFLOW 6, PEST, and post-processing utilities are in the ancillary directory. Supplementary data also are included in the ancillary directory, including site information, high-frequency water-level and aquifer-test data, transmissivity estimates, water-chemistry data, and water-temperature analyses. This USGS data release contains data, analyses, and model files for the simulations and analysis results described in U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report (https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20225132).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Carbon Dioxide Production in Bedrock Beneath Soils Substantially Contributes to Forest Carbon Cycling

Abstract Soils are widely considered the primary terrestrial organic matter pool mediating carbon transactions with the atmosphere and groundwater. Because soils are both a host and a product of rhizosphere activity, they are thought to mark the location where photosynthetic fixation of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is balanced by the oxidation of organic matter. However, in many terrestrial environments, the rhizosphere extends below soils and into fractured bedrock, and it is unknown if the resulting biological and hydrologic dynamics in bedrock have a significant impact on carbon cycling. Here we show substantial production of CO 2 in weathered bedrock at 4–8 m below the thin soils (<0.5 m thick) of a Northern California forest using innovative monitoring technology for sampling gases and water in fractured rock. The deep CO 2 production supports a persistent upward flux of CO 2(g) year‐round from bedrock to soil, constituting between 2% and 29% of the average daily CO 2 efflux from the land surface. When water is rapidly transported across the fractured bedrock vadose zone, nearly 50% of the CO 2 produced in the bedrock dissolves into water, promoting water‐rock interaction and export of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) from the unsaturated zone to groundwater, constituting as much as 80% of the DIC exiting the hillslope. Such CO 2 production in weathered bedrock is subject to unique moisture, temperature, biological, and mineralogical conditions which are currently missing from terrestrial carbon models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Formation of a Large Cold Groundwater Mantle Helium Anomaly and High Temperature Geothermal Resources in Response to Bimodal Magmatism Near Roosevelt Hot Springs and Utah FORGE, Milford Valley, Southwest Utah

Abstract A large mantle helium anomaly and separate domains of high heat flow are the predominant manifestations of bimodal magmatic activity in the Milford valley. The mantle helium anomaly (1.9–2.6 R/Ra) covers 270 km 2 and is subdivided into two separated domains: a cold shallow groundwater regime and high temperature hydrothermal activity. The zone of anomalous heat flow covers >100 km 2 and is also subdivided into two adjacent domains, comprising hydrothermal activity at Roosevelt Hot Springs (RHS) (3–7 W/m 2 ) and conductive heat flow (100–180 mW/m 2 ). While the transfer of heat and mantle helium at RHS are coupled, heat and helium transfer are decoupled in the adjacent cold groundwater regime to the west. Both the mantle helium and geothermal anomalies are attributed to recent mafic‐felsic magmatic intrusions of >400 km 3 , however, the absence of volcanic eruptions <500,000 years indicates magmas stall before rising to shallow crustal level <10 km depth. Deep level magmatism produces a felsic composition melt, which is inferred to be responsible for the widespread and near uniform range of diluted mantle helium values. A thick and impermeable mass of crystalline granitic basement rock at the mid‐crustal level divides the ascent of mantle helium into separate flow paths. It may also impede the rise of buoyant magma trapping thermal energy that facilitates partial melting, slow cooling, and development of a thick thermal aureole. Partitioning of convective and conductive thermal regimes and independent flow paths supplying deeply derived helium characterize the development of a large long‐lived magma‐related geothermal system.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

Reservoir Thermal Energy Storage Benchmarking (Rev. 3)

A benchmarking analysis of RTES research funded by GTO through the Beyond Batteries projects was conducted against the ESGC to see where they fit within the identified ESGC Use Cases. The projects were found to advance knowledge in multiple ESGC use cases, either directly or in some cases, indirectly as enabling technologies. This analysis is helpful to understand where RTES and associated research fits into the larger discussion around energy storage technologies. Also, a retrospective analysis of the Beyond Batteries projects was conducted to evaluate what the projects learned and how the results can be applied to advance the value of RTES. Major results of each of the studies are summarized in Table 2. Additionally, a comparative metrics analysis for RTES was completed to understand where RTES lies within the energy storage industry. Metrics for evaluation of RTES and its comparison to other storage technologies were selected and ranges of their values compiled. The selected metrics – LCOE (levelized cost of energy), capital costs, roundtrip efficiency, energy storage capacity, and storage time – were chosen based on data availability and have a particularly strong influence on the potential deployment of a storage technology. Charts which compare the metrics are presented in section 4.3 and show ranges for each of the 10 selected technologies. However, due to a lack of domestic operational facilities, values for RTES and for portions of the remaining technologies are based on theoretical modeling and studies of best-case scenarios. LCOE estimates for RTES fall within the lower reaches of Figure 15, but nevertheless amount to 2 – 5 times the ESGC Roadmap goal for LCOE, for example in the Facilitating and Evolving Grid Use Case. Capital costs for RTES sit on the higher end (Figure 16) but are expected to decrease as new projects are developed and the technology is refined. The theoretical roundtrip efficiency reported for RTES varies from mid to high percentages (Figure 17) with efficiencies upwards of 93% in modeled scenarios in the Portland Basin (Bershaw et al.,2020). RTES is also expected to have the largest energy storage capacities and longest storage times, likely matched only by lower efficiency hydrogen storage. To better assess the role that RTES could play in energy storage we examined it’s potential in the U.S. The potential depends on many factors. Recently, many researchers have started looking at deep sedimentary basins, depleted oil and gas fields, and basalt formations as potential targets for RTES development. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) has analyzed various cities and shown substantial RTES potential in the cooling sector (Pepin et al., 2021). By modeling RTES in low-quality groundwater (e.g., brackish), it is shown to be favorable across the U.S. with particular suitability in the Illinois Basin, Coastal Plains, and Basin and Range regions. Seasonal RTES operations have also been modeled in the Portland Basin by those at the USGS and Portland State University to simulate an RTES system supplying heating loads needed for the Oregon Health and Science University. Simulations suggest that high conductive heat loss in the initial years exists but tends to decrease with increasing time and development of the resource due to self-insulating nature of the basalts (Burns et al., 2020). Other national laboratory efforts are taking a close look at many of the technical issues involved with RTES (McLing et al., 2019, McLing et al., 2022). These include difficulties in understanding geochemical, hydrogeological, mechanical, and microbiological changes at such elevated temperatures and operational scenarios. Major gaps in research are identified and suggested for future work. With this increased focus to understand how to make RTES successful in the U.S., this technology could be a potential solution to many of the nation’s energy storage problems. For the energy independence of this country, the DOE should prioritize de-risking this technology by making future investments in pilot-scale demonstrations to attract potential investors.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Evidence for the abundance of water on Mars now and in the past

This paper discusses evidence for the abundance of water on Mars early in its history, based on the analysis of the Viking 1 and 2 images and the Martian-atmosphere water measurements. It is argued that integrated networks of small valleys in the ancient cratered terrain of Mars may indicate that the planet once possessed a warmer climate. It is pointed out that most Martian outflow channels originate from the regions of collapsed and disrupted terrain, suggesting that they were formed by a catastrophic release of groundwater. The question of the fate of Martian water is discussed, and arguments are presented suggesting that the Martian crust may retain significant porosity to a depth of 10 km and may possess a total pore volume sufficient to store a global layer of water 0.5-1.5 km deep.

Clifford, Stephen M.↗

The Evolution of the Martian Hydrosphere: Implications for the Fate of a Primordial Ocean and the Current State of the Northern Plains

In this paper we consider the hydraulic and thermal conditions that gave rise to the elevated source regions of the Late Hesperian outflow channels and explore their implications for the evolution of the Martian hydrosphere. We find that if the outflow channel floodwaters were derived from a subpermafrost aquifer, then it implies that, throughout the planet's first billion years of evolution, as much as one third of its surface was covered by standing bodies of water and ice. Following the development of the global dichotomy, the bulk of this water would have existed as an ice-covered ocean in the northern plains. We demonstrate that the progressive crustal assimilation of this early surface reservoir of H2O (punctuated by possible episodes of less extensive flooding) was a natural consequence of the planet's subsequent climatic and geothermal evolution-potentially cycling the equivalent of a km-deep global ocean of water through the atmosphere and subsurface every approx. 10(exp 9) years. In response to the long-term decline in planetary heat flow, the progressive coldtrapping of H2O into the growing cryosphere is expected to have significantly depleted the original inventory of groundwater-a development that could well explain the apparent decline in outflow channel activity observed during the Amazonian. Although primarily a theoretical analysis, our findings appear remarkably consistent with the geomorphic and topographic evidence that Mars once possessed a primordial ocean and that a substantial relic of that body continues to survive as massive ice deposits within the northern plains. Confirmation of the presence of such deposits, combined with the potential detection of a global-scale groundwater system, would provide persuasive support for the validity of this analysis.

Clifford, Stephen M.↗

Hydrologic Impacts of a Strike-Slip Fault Zone: Insights from Joint 3D Body-Wave Tomography of Rock Valley

The Rock Valley fault zone (RVFZ), an intraplate strike-slip fault zone in the southern Nevada National Security Site (NNSS), hosted a series of very shallow (<3 km) earthquakes in 1993. The RVFZ may also have hydrological significance within the NNSS, potentially playing a role in regional groundwater flow, but there is a lack of local hydrological data. In the Spring of 2021, we collected active-source accelerated weight drop seismic data over part of the RVFZ to better characterize the shallow subsurface. Here, we manually picked ~17,000 P-wave travel times and over 14,000 S-wave travel times, which were inverted for P-wave velocity (V P ), S-wave velocity (V S ), and V P /V S ratio in a 3D joint tomographic inversion scheme. Seismic velocities are imaged as deep as ~700 m in areas and generally align with geologic and structural expectations. V P and V S are relatively reduced near mapped and inferred faults, with the most prominent lower V P and V S zone around the densest collection of faults. We image V P /V S ratios ranging from ~1.5 to ~2.4, the extremes of which occur at a depth of ~100 m and are juxtaposed across a fault. One possible interpretation of the imaged seismic velocities is enhanced fault damage near the densest collection of faults with relatively higher porosity and/or crack density at ~100 m depth, with patches of semiperched groundwater present in the sedimentary rock in higher V P /V S areas and drier rock in lower V P /V S areas. A relatively higher V P /V S area beneath the densest faults persists at depth, which suggests percolation of groundwater via the fault damage zone to the regionally connected lower carbonate aquifer. Potentially, the presence and movement of groundwater may have played a role in the 1993 earthquake aftershocks.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Developing a Decision Support System for Regional Agricultural Nonpoint Salinity Pollution Management: Application to the San Joaquin River, California

Environmental problems and production losses associated with irrigated agriculture, such as salinity, degradation of receiving waters, such as rivers, and deep percolation of saline water to aquifers, highlight water-quality concerns that require a paradigm shift in resource-management policy. New tools are needed to assist environmental managers in developing sustainable solutions to these problems, given the nonpoint source nature of salt loads to surface water and groundwater from irrigated agriculture. Equity issues arise in distributing responsibility and costs to the generators of this source of pollution. This paper describes an alternative approach to salt regulation and control using the concept of “Real-Time Water Quality management”. The approach relies on a continually updateable WARMF (Watershed Analysis Risk Management Framework) forecasting model to provide daily estimates of salt load assimilative capacity in the San Joaquin River and assessments of compliance with salinity concentration objectives at key monitoring sites on the river. The results of the study showed that the policy combination of well-crafted river salinity objectives by the regulator and the application of an easy-to use and maintain decision support tool by stakeholders have succeeded in minimizing water quality (salinity) exceedances over a 20-year study period.

real-time management economics↗

Enhancing Streamflow Forecast and Extracting Insights Using Long-Short Term Memory Networks With Data Integration at Continental Scales

Recent observations with varied schedules and types (moving average, snapshot, or regularly spaced) can help to improve streamflow forecasts, but it is challenging to integrate them effectively. Based on a long short-term memory (LSTM) streamflow model, we tested multiple versions of a flexible procedure we call data integration (DI) to leverage recent discharge measurements to improve forecasts. DI accepts lagged inputs either directly or through a convolutional neural network unit. DI ubiquitously elevated streamflow forecast performance to unseen levels, reaching a record continental-scale median Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficient value of 0.86. Integrating moving-average discharge, discharge from the last few days, or even average discharge from the previous calendar month could all improve daily forecasts. Directly using lagged observations as inputs was comparable in performance to using the convolutional neural network unit. Importantly, we obtained valuable insights regarding hydrologic processes impacting LSTM and DI performance. Before applying DI, the base LSTM model worked well in mountainous or snow-dominated regions, but less well in regions with low discharge volumes (due to either low precipitation or high precipitation-energy synchronicity) and large interannual storage variability. DI was most beneficial in regions with high flow autocorrelation: it greatly reduced baseflow bias in groundwater-dominated western basins and also improved peak prediction for basins with dynamical surface water storage, such as the Prairie Potholes or Great Lakes regions. However, even DI cannot elevate performance in high-aridity basins with 1-day flash peaks. Despite this limitation, there is much promise for a deep-learning-based forecast paradigm due to its performance, automation, efficiency, and flexibility.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Deep Learning Based Framework to Identify Undocumented Orphaned Oil and Gas Wells from Historical Maps: A Case Study for California and Oklahoma

Undocumented Orphaned Wells (UOWs) are wells without an operator that have limited or no documentation with regulatory authorities. An estimated 310,000 to 800,000 UOWs exist in the United States (US), whose locations are largely unknown. These wells can potentially leak methane and other volatile organic compounds to the atmosphere, and contaminate groundwater. In this study, we developed a novel framework utilizing a state-of-the-art computer vision neural network model to identify the precise locations of potential UOWs. The U-Net model is trained to detect oil and gas well symbols in georeferenced historical topographic maps, and potential UOWs are identified as symbols that are further than 100 m from any documented well. A custom tool was developed to rapidly validate the potential UOW locations. We applied this framework to four counties in California and Oklahoma, leading to the discovery of 1301 potential UOWs across >40,000 km 2 . We confirmed the presence of 29 UOWs from satellite images and 15 UOWs from magnetic surveys in the field with a spatial accuracy on the order of 10 m. This framework can be scaled to identify potential UOWs across the US since the historical maps are available for the entire nation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

New insights into the flow dynamics of a deep freshwater aquifer in the semi-arid and saline Cuvelai-Etosha Basin, Northern Namibia: Results of a multi-environmental tracer study

Study region A paleo-megafan system of the Cubango River in the northern parts of the semi-arid Cuvelai-Etosha Basin, shared by Angola and Namibia. It hosts a deep freshwater aquifer, the so-called Kalahari-Ohangwena 2 (KOH-2), with the potential to resolve the imminent regional water supply shortages. Study focus Hydrogeochemical and multi-environmental tracer studies incorporating the use of age tracers 14 C, 36 Cl, 81 Kr and 4 He to determine the age of groundwater and provide insights into the flow dynamics of the KOH-2. New hydrological insights for the region Stable water isotopes and noble gas thermometry show that in a period with higher rainfall and recharge, temperatures were at least 3 – 4 °C lower than today. Several arguments led to the conclusion that younger groundwater, possibly of an age of 35,000 years, is mixed with ancient saline pore water. These include: 1) the correlation of measured 36 Cl and 81 Kr ratios, as well as 4 He concentrations, using a binary mixing model, and 2) the substantial variation in 81 Kr ages, ranging from 40,000 to 170,000 years, over relatively short distances—a phenomenon challenging to explain by advective groundwater flow equations. Consequently, the ages derived from 81 Kr measurements serve as indicators of the extent of freshening and therefore describe mixing ages rather than absolute travel times.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Solving high-dimensional inverse problems using amortized likelihood-free inference with noisy and incomplete data

Here, we present a likelihood-free probabilistic inversion method based on normalizing flows for high-dimensional inverse problems. The proposed method is composed of two complementary networks: a summary network for data compression and an inference network for parameter estimation. The summary network encodes raw observations into a fixed-size vector of summary features, while the inference network generates samples of the approximate posterior distribution of the model parameters based on these summary features. The posterior samples are produced in a deep generative fashion by sampling from a latent Gaussian distribution and passing these samples through an invertible transformation. We construct this invertible transformation by sequentially alternating conditional invertible neural network and conditional neural spline flow layers. The summary and inference networks are trained simultaneously. We apply the proposed method to an inversion problem in groundwater hydrology to estimate the posterior distribution of the log-conductivity field conditioned on spatially sparse time-series observations of the system’s hydraulic head responses. The conductivity field is represented with 706 degrees of freedom in the considered problem. Comparison with the likelihood-based iterative ensemble smoother PEST-IES method demonstrates that the proposed method accurately estimates the parameter posterior distribution and the observations’ predictive posterior distribution at a fraction of the inference time of PEST-IES.

conditional invertible neural network↗