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At least 127 records · Page 7

Adaptive Recovery Model: Designing Systems for Testing Tracing and Vaccination to Support COVID-19 Recovery Planning.

This report documents a new approach to designing disease control policies that allocate scarce testing, contact tracing, and vaccination resources to better control community transmission of COVID19 or similar diseases. The Adaptive Recovery Model (ARM) combines a deterministic compartmental disease model with a stochastic network disease propagation model to enable us to simulate COVID-19 community spread through the lens of two complementary modeling motifs. ARM contact networks are derived from cell-phone location data that have been anonymized and interpreted as individual arrivals to specic public locations. Modeling disease spread over these networks allows us to identify locations within communities conducive to rapid disease spread. ARM applies this model- and data-derived abstractions of community transmission to evaluate the effectiveness of disease control measures including targeted social distancing, contact tracing, testing and vaccination. The architecture of ARM provides a unique capacity to help decision makers understand how best to deploy scarce testing, tracing and vaccination resources to minimize disease-spread potential in a community. This document details the novel mathematical formulations underlying ARM, presents a dynamical stability analysis of the deterministic model components, a sensitivity analysis of control parameters and network structure, and summarizes a process for deriving contact networks from cell-phone location data. An example use case steps through applying ARM to evaluate three targeted social distancing policies using Bernalillo County, New Mexico as an exemplar test locale. This step-by-step analysis demonstrates how ARM can be used to measure the relative performance of competing public health policies. Initial scenario tests of ARM shows that ARMs design focus on resource utilization rather than simple incidence prediction can provide decision makers with additional quantitative guidance for managing ongoing public health emergencies and planning future responses.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Generalizability of heat-related health risk associations observed in a large healthcare claims database of patients with commercial health insurance

Extreme ambient heat is unambiguously associated with higher risk of illness and death. The Optum Labs Data Warehouse (OLDW), a database of medical claims from US-based patients with commercial or Medicare Advantage health insurance, has been used to quantify heat-related health impacts. Whether results for the insured sub-population are generalizable to the broader population has to our knowledge not been documented. We sought to address this question, for the US population in California from 2012 to 2019. We examined changes in daily rates of emergency department (ED) encounters and in-patient hospitalization encounters for all-causes, heat-related outcomes, renal disease, mental/behavioral disorders, cardiovascular disease, and respiratory disease. OLDW was the source for health data for insured individuals in California, and health data for the broader population were gathered from the California Department of Health Care Access and Information (HCAI). We defined extreme heat exposure as any day in a group of 2 or more days with maximum temperatures exceeding the county-specific 97.5 th percentile and used a space-time-stratified case–crossover design to assess and compare the impacts of heat on health. Average incidence rates of medical encounters differed by dataset. However, rate ratios for ED encounters were similar across datasets for all causes (ratio of incidence rate ratios (rIRR) = 0.989; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.973, 1.011), heat-related causes (rIRR = 1.080; 95% CI = 0.999, 1.168), renal disease (rIRR = 0.963; 95% CI = 0.718, 1.292), and mental health disorders (rIRR = 1.098; 95% CI = 1.004, 1.201). Rate ratios for inpatient encounters were also similar. This work presents evidence that OLDW can continue to be a resource for estimating the health impacts of extreme heat.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Water Cycle-Driven Infectious Diseases as Multiscale, Reliable, Continuously Updating Water Cycle Sensors

We propose a novel synthesis of observational and simulated data (climatological and biological) to enhance understanding of the real-world interplay between climate (here, the water cycle) and the epidemiology of water cycle-driven infectious disease. Aligning with Focal Area 2, predictive modeling using AI techniques, we will develop systems of hierarchical models to discover latent features of the water cycle. Our approach will leverage state-of-the-art in Artificial Intelligence (AI) to measure the degree to which climate change-driven shifts in water cycle can be predicted by supplementing sparse and irregular climate data with water cycle-driven infectious disease resources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Predictive models of long COVID

Background: The cause and symptoms of long COVID are poorly understood. It is challenging to predict whether a given COVID-19 patient will develop long COVID in the future. Methods: We used electronic health record (EHR) data from the National COVID Cohort Collaborative to predict the incidence of long COVID. We trained two machine learning (ML) models — logistic regression (LR) and random forest (RF). Features used to train predictors included symptoms and drugs ordered during acute infection, measures of COVID-19 treatment, pre-COVID comorbidities, and demographic information. We assigned the ‘long COVID’ label to patients diagnosed with the U09.9 ICD10-CM code. The cohorts included patients with (a) EHRs reported from data partners using U09.9 ICD10-CM code and (b) at least one EHR in each feature category. We analysed three cohorts: all patients (n = 2,190,579; diagnosed with long COVID = 17,036), inpatients (149,319; 3,295), and outpatients (2,041,260; 13,741). Findings: LR and RF models yielded median AUROC of 0.76 and 0.75, respectively. Ablation study revealed that drugs had the highest influence on the prediction task. The SHAP method identified age, gender, cough, fatigue, albuterol, obesity, diabetes, and chronic lung disease as explanatory features. Models trained on data from one N3C partner and tested on data from the other partners had average AUROC of 0.75. Interpretation: ML-based classification using EHR information from the acute infection period is effective in predicting long COVID. SHAP methods identified important features for prediction. Cross-site analysis demonstrated the generalizability of the proposed methodology.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Uncovering DNA-PKcs ancient phylogeny, unique sequence motifs and insights for human disease

DNA-dependent protein kinase catalytic subunit (DNA-PKcs) is a key member of the phosphatidylinositol-3 kinase-like (PIKK) family of protein kinases with critical roles in DNA-double strand break repair, transcription, metastasis, mitosis, RNA processing, and innate and adaptive immunity. The absence of DNA-PKcs from many model organisms has led to the assumption that DNA-PKcs is a vertebrate-specific PIKK. Here, we find that DNA-PKcs is widely distributed in invertebrates, fungi, plants, and protists, and that threonines 2609, 2638, and 2647 of the ABCDE cluster of phosphorylation sites are highly conserved amongst most Eukaryotes. Furthermore, we identify highly conserved amino acid sequence motifs and domains that are characteristic of DNA-PKcs relative to other PIKKs. These include residues in the Forehead domain and a novel motif we have termed YRPD, located in an α helix C-terminal to the ABCDE phosphorylation site loop. Combining sequence with biochemistry plus structural data on human DNA-PKcs unveils conserved sequence and conformational features with functional insights and implications. The defined generally progressive DNA-PKcs sequence diversification uncovers conserved functionality supported by Evolutionary Trace analysis, suggesting that for many organisms both functional sites and evolutionary pressures remain identical due to fundamental cell biology. The mining of cancer genomic data and germline mutations causing human inherited disease reveal that robust DNA-PKcs activity in tumors is detrimental to patient survival, whereas germline mutations compromising function are linked to severe immunodeficiency and neuronal degeneration. We anticipate that these collective results will enable ongoing DNA-PKcs functional analyses with biological and medical implications.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Characterization of the antispike IgG immune response to COVID-19 vaccines in people with a wide variety of immunodeficiencies

Research on coronavirus disease 2019 vaccination in immune-deficient/disordered people (IDP) has focused on cancer and organ transplantation populations. In a prospective cohort of 195 IDP and 35 healthy volunteers (HV), antispike immunoglobulin G (IgG) was detected in 88% of IDP after dose 2, increasing to 93% by 6 months after dose 3. Despite high seroconversion, median IgG levels for IDP never surpassed one-third that of HV. IgG binding to Omicron BA.1 was lowest among variants. Angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 pseudo-neutralization only modestly correlated with antispike IgG concentration. IgG levels were not significantly altered by receipt of different messenger RNA–based vaccines, immunomodulating treatments, and prior severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infections. While our data show that three doses of coronavirus disease 2019 vaccinations induce antispike IgG in most IDP, additional doses are needed to increase protection. Because of the notably reduced IgG response to Omicron BA.1, the efficacy of additional vaccinations, including bivalent vaccines, should be studied in this population.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

LipidOz enables automated elucidation of lipid carbon–carbon double bond positions from ozone-induced dissociation mass spectrometry data

Lipids play essential roles in many biological processes and disease pathology, but unambiguous identification of lipids is complicated by the presence of multiple isomeric species differing by fatty acyl chain length, stereospecifically numbered (sn) position, and position/stereochemistry of double bonds. Conventional liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) analyses enable the determination of fatty acyl chain lengths (and in some cases sn position) and number of double bonds, but not carbon-carbon double bond positions. Ozone-induced dissociation (OzID) is a gas-phase oxidation reaction that produces characteristic fragments from lipids containing double bonds. OzID can be incorporated into ion mobility spectrometry (IMS)-MS instruments for the structural characterization of lipids, including additional isomer separation and confident assignment of double bond positions. The complexity and repetitive nature of OzID data analysis and lack of software tool support have limited the application of OzID for routine lipidomics studies. Here, we present an open-source Python tool, LipidOz, for the automated determination of lipid double bond positions from OzID-IMS-MS data, which employs a combination of traditional automation and deep learning approaches. Our results demonstrate the ability of LipidOz to robustly assign double bond positions for lipid standard mixtures and complex lipid extracts, enabling practical application of OzID for future lipidomics.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A deep generative model for deciphering cellular dynamics and in silico drug discovery in complex diseases

Human diseases are characterized by intricate cellular dynamics. Single-cell transcriptomics provides critical insights, yet a persistent gap remains in computational tools for detailed disease progression analysis and targeted in silico drug interventions. Here we introduce UNAGI, a deep generative neural network tailored to analyse time-series single-cell transcriptomic data. This tool captures the complex cellular dynamics underlying disease progression, enhancing drug perturbation modelling and screening. When applied to a dataset from patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, UNAGI learns disease-informed cell embeddings that sharpen our understanding of disease progression, leading to the identification of potential therapeutic drug candidates. Validation using proteomics reveals the accuracy of UNAGI’s cellular dynamics analysis, and the use of the fibrotic cocktail-treated human precision-cut lung slices confirms UNAGI’s predictions that nifedipine, an antihypertensive drug, may have anti-fibrotic effects on human tissues. UNAGI’s versatility extends to other diseases, including COVID, demonstrating adaptability and confirming its broader applicability in decoding complex cellular dynamics beyond idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, amplifying its use in the quest for therapeutic solutions across diverse pathological landscapes.

Neural Network↗

Deriving spatially explicit direct and indirect interaction networks from animal movement data

Abstract Quantifying spatiotemporally explicit interactions within animal populations facilitates the understanding of social structure and its relationship with ecological processes. Data from animal tracking technologies (Global Positioning Systems [“GPS”]) can circumvent longstanding challenges in the estimation of spatiotemporally explicit interactions, but the discrete nature and coarse temporal resolution of data mean that ephemeral interactions that occur between consecutive GPS locations go undetected. Here, we developed a method to quantify individual and spatial patterns of interaction using continuous‐time movement models (CTMMs) fit to GPS tracking data. We first applied CTMMs to infer the full movement trajectories at an arbitrarily fine temporal scale before estimating interactions, thus allowing inference of interactions occurring between observed GPS locations. Our framework then infers indirect interactions—individuals occurring at the same location, but at different times—while allowing the identification of indirect interactions to vary with ecological context based on CTMM outputs. We assessed the performance of our new method using simulations and illustrated its implementation by deriving disease‐relevant interaction networks for two behaviorally differentiated species, wild pigs ( Sus scrofa ) that can host African Swine Fever and mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ) that can host chronic wasting disease. Simulations showed that interactions derived from observed GPS data can be substantially underestimated when temporal resolution of movement data exceeds 30‐min intervals. Empirical application suggested that underestimation occurred in both interaction rates and their spatial distributions. CTMM‐Interaction method, which can introduce uncertainties, recovered majority of true interactions. Our method leverages advances in movement ecology to quantify fine‐scale spatiotemporal interactions between individuals from lower temporal resolution GPS data. It can be leveraged to infer dynamic social networks, transmission potential in disease systems, consumer–resource interactions, information sharing, and beyond. The method also sets the stage for future predictive models linking observed spatiotemporal interaction patterns to environmental drivers.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Low Doses of Radiation Increase the Immunosuppressive Profile of Lung Macrophages During Viral Infection and Pneumonia

Severe pneumonia and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) have been described in patients with severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Recently, early clinical data reported the feasibility of low doses of radiation therapy (RT) in the treatment of ARDS in patients with severe COVID-19. However, the involved mechanisms remained unknown.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

4D Multimodal Co-attention Fusion Network with Latent Contrastive Alignment for Alzheimer’s Diagnosis

Multimodal neuroimaging provides complementary structural and functional insights into both human brain organization and disease-related dynamics. Recent studies demonstrate enhanced diagnostic sensitivity for Alzheimer’s disease (AD) through synergistic integration of neuroimaging data (e.g., sMRI, fMRI) with tabular data (e.g., behavioral and cognitive tests). However, the intrinsic heterogeneity across modalities (e.g., 4D spatiotemporal fMRI dynamics vs. 3D anatomical sMRI structure) presents critical challenges for discriminative feature fusion, often leading to information loss or biased fusion. To bridge this gap, we propose M2M-AlignNet: a multimodal co-attention network with latent alignment for early AD diagnosis using sMRI and fMRI. At the core of our approach is a multi-patch-to-multi-patch (M2M) contrastive loss function that quantifies and reduces representational discrepancies via weighted patch correspondence, explicitly aligning fMRI components across brain regions with their sMRI structural substrates without one-to-one constraints. Additionally, we propose a latent-as-query co-attention module to autonomously discover fusion patterns, circumventing modality prioritization biases while minimizing feature redundancy. We conduct extensive experiments to confirm the effectiveness of our method and highlight the correspondence between fMRI and sMRI as AD biomarkers.

Wei, Yuxiang [Georgia Institute of Technology]↗

Interactions Between Diabetes Mellitus and Osteoarthritis: From Animal Studies to Clinical Data

Diabetes mellitus (DM) and osteoarthritis (OA) are commonly known metabolic diseases that affect a large segment of the world population. These two conditions share several risk factors such as obesity and aging; however, there is still no consensus regarding the direct role of DM on OA development and progression. Interestingly, both animal and human studies have yielded conflicting results, with some showing a significant role for DM in promoting OA, while others found no significant interactions between these conditions. In this review, we will discuss preclinical and clinical data that assessed the interaction between DM and OA. We will also discuss possible mechanisms associated with the effect of high glucose on the articular cartilage and chondrocytes. An emerging theme dominates the breath of published work in this area: most of the studies discussed in this review do not take into consideration the role of other factors such as the type of diabetes, age, biological sex, type of animal model, body mass index, and the use of pain medications when analyzing and interpreting data. Therefore, future studies should be more rigorous when designing experiments looking at DM and its effects on OA and should carefully account for these confounding factors, so that better approaches can be developed for monitoring and treating patients at risk of OA and DM.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Elucidating nanoscale mechanical properties of diabetic human adipose tissue using atomic force microscopy

Abstract Obesity-related type 2 diabetes (DM) is a major public health concern. Adipose tissue metabolic dysfunction, including fibrosis, plays a central role in DM pathogenesis. Obesity is associated with changes in adipose tissue extracellular matrix (ECM), but the impact of these changes on adipose tissue mechanics and their role in metabolic disease is poorly defined. This study utilized atomic force microscopy (AFM) to quantify difference in elasticity between human DM and non-diabetic (NDM) visceral adipose tissue. The mean elastic modulus of DM adipose tissue was twice that of NDM adipose tissue (11.50 kPa vs. 4.48 kPa) to a 95% confidence level, with significant variability in elasticity of DM compared to NDM adipose tissue. Histologic and chemical measures of fibrosis revealed increased hydroxyproline content in DM adipose tissue, but no difference in Sirius Red staining between DM and NDM tissues. These findings support the hypothesis that fibrosis, evidenced by increased elastic modulus, is enhanced in DM adipose tissue, and suggest that measures of tissue mechanics may better resolve disease-specific differences in adipose tissue fibrosis compared with histologic measures. These data demonstrate the power of AFM nanoindentation to probe tissue mechanics, and delineate the impact of metabolic disease on the mechanical properties of adipose tissue.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Defective Interfering Viral Particle Treatment Reduces Clinical Signs and Protects Hamsters from Lethal Nipah Virus Disease

Defective interfering particles (DIs) contain a considerably smaller genome than the parental virus but retain replication competency. As DIs can directly or indirectly alter propagation kinetics of the parental virus, they offer a novel approach to antiviral therapy, capitalizing on knowledge from natural infection. However, efforts to translate in vitro inhibition to in vivo screening models remain limited. We investigated the efficacy of virus-like particles containing DI genomes (therapeutic infectious particles [TIPs]) in the Syrian hamster model of lethal Nipah virus (NiV) disease. We found that coadministering a high dose of TIPs intraperitoneally with virus challenge improved clinical course and reduced lethality. To mimic natural exposure, we also evaluated lower-dose TIP delivery and virus challenge intranasally, finding equally efficacious reduction in disease severity and overall lethality. Eliminating TIP replicative capacity decreased efficacy, suggesting protection via direct inhibition. These data provide evidence that TIP-mediated treatment can confer protection against disease and lethal outcome in a robust animal NiV model, supporting further development of TIP treatment for NiV and other high-consequence pathogens.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Predicting Future Disease Burden in a Rapidly Changing Climate

The interplay of a rapidly changing climate and infectious disease occurrence is emerging as a critical topic, requiring investigation of possible direct, as well as indirect, connections between disease processes and climate-related variation and phenomena. First, we introduce and overview three infectious disease exemplars (dengue, influenza, valley fever) representing different transmission classes (insect-vectored, human-to-human, environmentally-transmitted) to illuminate the complex and significant interplay between climate disease processes, as well as to motivate discussion of how Sandia can transform the field, and change our understanding of climate-driven infectious disease spread. We also review state-of-the-art epidemiological and climate modeling approaches, together with data analytics and machine learning methods, potentially relevant to climate and infectious disease studies. We synthesize the modeling and disease exemplars information, suggesting initial avenues for research and development (R&D) in this area, and propose potential sponsors for this work. Whether directly or indirectly, it is certain that a rapidly changing climate will alter global disease burden. The trajectory of climate change is an important control on this burden, from local, to regional and global scales. The efforts proposed herein respond to the National Research Councils call for the creation of a multidisciplinary institute that would address critical aspects of these interlocking, cascading crises.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Beyond microbial abundance: metadata integration enhances disease prediction in human microbiome studies

Multiple studies have highlighted the interaction of the human microbiome with physiological systems such as the gut, immune, liver, and skin, via key axes. Advances in sequencing technologies and high-performance computing have enabled the analysis of large-scale metagenomic data, facilitating the use of machine learning to predict disease likelihood from microbiome profiles. However, challenges such as compositionality, high dimensionality, sparsity, and limited sample sizes have hindered the development of actionable models. One strategy to improve these models is by incorporating key metadata from both the human host and sample collection/processing protocols. This remains challenging due to sparsity and inconsistency in metadata annotation and availability. In this paper, we introduce a machine learning-based pipeline for predicting human disease states by integrating host and protocol metadata with microbiome abundance profiles from 68 different studies, processed through a consistent pipeline. Our findings indicate that metadata can enhance machine learning predictions, particularly at higher taxonomic ranks like Kingdom and Phylum, though this effect diminishes at lower ranks. Our study leverages a large collection of microbiome datasets comprising 11,208 samples, therefore enhancing the robustness and statistical confidence of our findings. This work is a critical step toward utilizing microbiome and metadata for predicting diseases such as gastrointestinal infections, diabetes, cancer, and neurological disorders.

Mathematics and Computing↗

Heterogeneous estimations of non-pharmaceutical mitigation behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the importance of human behavior in mitigating the spread of disease. Nonetheless, human behavior is often overlooked in models of disease spread, particularly by underutilizing real-world data. We address this by estimating probabilities that individuals engage in behaviors that influence SARS-CoV-2 transmission risk during the COVID-19 pandemic, between September 2020 and June 2022. These behaviors include wearing a mask, using public transportation, spending time with others, avoiding contact with others, and going to work. Our estimates account for the age and sex of individuals and are generated for every county in the United States. We utilized multiple open-source datasets and United States Census data to produce these estimates. Multiple datasets were used for validation, showing our estimates demonstrated comparable accuracy and robustness. Our estimates aid in understanding human behavior dynamics during the COVID-19 pandemic and could be used to inform monthly or longer-term behavior in simulations of COVID-19. Moreover, the methods presented can be applied to other behaviors and features for future simulations of infectious disease.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

PNNL DataHub NIAID Program Project: Modeling Host Responses to Understand Severe Human Virus Infections, Multi-Omic Viral Dataset Catalog Collection

The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) "Modeling Host Responses to Understand Severe Human Virus Infections" program project was a highly integrated and comprehensive systems biology research core, funded by the National Institute of Health (U19AI106772) from 2013-06-01 to 2018-05-31, investigating the complex host response to category A, B, and C priority pathogen infections. Resulting project deliverables include an extensive comprehensive collections of linked primary and secondary transformation viral experimental infection data. Here we provide a never before released comprehensive infectious disease collection of primary and secondary transformation multi-Omics data profiling a series of priority pathogen primary experimental studies for enhanced open access to viral Omics lifecycle datasets and project metadata. Using a highly integrated and multidisciplinary approach, linked primary data and metadata supporting secondary normalization datasets, provide critical information necessary for research reproducibility and long-term preservation. Enabling on-demand data access for research community consumption and developer reuse, serves to support new mechanistic insights and discoveries into host-pathogen interactions for aiding future biohazard data preparedness efforts in emergency response to global health crises involving viral infection.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗