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At least 127 records · Page 7

Catalina Repower Feasibility Study: NREL Phases I & II Summary Report

Engineers at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) supported Southern California Edison (SCE) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) by conducting technical and economic analyses for energy systems at Santa Catalina (Catalina) Island, which is located 22 miles off the coast of Long Beach, California. This effort was part of a broader Repower Catalina Feasibility Study that was also supported by NV5, an engineering consulting firm and project partner to NREL for this analysis. This document describes NREL’s techno-economic modeling and optimization analysis for the first two phases of this project which focus on supply-side generation and energy storage options for Catalina. SCE’s goal for this analysis is to determine a strategy for electricity generation on Catalina Island that results in lower energy costs, improved energy resiliency, and reduced air emissions. EPA goals for this effort are to reduce emissions of air pollution and encourage renewable energy development on contaminated and formerly contaminated lands when such development is aligned with the community’s vision for the site. Currently, an on-island SCE power plant serves the Catalina Island electrical load with 6 reciprocating diesel generators totaling 9.4 MW; 23 propane-fueled microturbines totaling 1.5 MW; and a 1-MW, 7.2-MWh sodium sulfur battery energy storage system (BESS). In 2017, the electricity consumption on the island was 29.1 GWh, with an average load of 3.3 MW and peak load of approximately 5.5 MW. Considering new environmental standards on diesel generator emissions from California’s South Coast Air Quality Management District, a 60% renewable energy target for 2030 laid out in California’s Senate Bill 100, SCE’s Clean Power Electrification Pathway, and the characteristics of the island’s existing diesel generators, SCE is seeking to evaluate the technical and economic implications of different energy technology options to determine a path forward. Phases I and II of the Repower Catalina Feasibility Study, summarized in this document, evaluated the following: Interconnection with the mainland via an undersea cable; On-island fossil fuel generation, including diesel, propane, and/or liquified natural gas (LNG); On-island renewable energy (RE) technologies, including solar photovoltaics (PV), wind turbines, and wave energy devices; BESS to support the above generation technologies; Initial analysis of the potential impacts of implementing energy efficiency measures. Results indicate strong techno-economic potential for a mix of on-island diesel and/or propane generators, solar PV, BESS, and energy efficiency measures to help SCE and Catalina achieve their goals compliant with California’s emissions and clean energy standards while minimizing electricity life cycle costs (LCC) over the 30-year analysis period. This document summarizes the considerations and findings of Phases I and II, focusing on high-level takeaways from Phase I and more detailed results from Phase II, and discusses a potential path forward for Phase III.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Deployment Potential of Concentrating Solar Power Technologies in California

As states within the United States respond to future grid development goals, there is a growing demand for reliable and resilient nighttime generation that can be addressed by low-cost, long-duration energy storage solutions. This report studies the potential of including concentrating solar power (CSP) in the technology mix to support California’s goals as defined in Senate Bill 100. A joint agency report study that determined potential pathways to achieve the renewable portfolio standard set by the bill did not include CSP, and our work provides information that could be used as a follow-up. This study uses a capacity expansion model configured to have nodal spatial fidelity in California and balancing-area fidelity in the Western Interconnection outside of California. The authors discovered that by applying current technology cost projections CSP fulfills nearly 15% of the annual load while representing just 6% of total installed capacity in 2045, replacing approximately 30 GWe of wind, solar PV, and standalone batteries compared to a scenario without CSP included. The deployment of CSP in the results is sensitive to the technology’s cost, which highlights the importance of meeting cost targets in 2030 and beyond to enable the technology’s potential contribution to California’s carbon reduction goals.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

High-Efficiency Modular SiC-based Power-Converter for Flexible-CHP Systems with Stability-Enhanced Grid-Support Functions

This project seeks to develop a modular, scalable MV power converter featuring stability-enhanced grid-support functions for future grid-interface applications in flexible combined heat and power (F-CHP) cogeneration plants, being fully compliant with the IEEE Standard 1547, category B—for operation in local areas with high aggregated distributed energy resource (DER) penetration, and also with the IEEE standard for the specification of microgrid controllers, namely IEEE Std 2030.7, with the goal to enable F-CHP systems for both microgrid and standalone applications. Further, the proposed converter will use a modular circuit topology, the MMC, which is scalable both in voltage and current by interconnecting power-cell building blocks, thus flexibly suiting the needs of F-CHP systems in the 1–20 MWe range. Furthermore, the use of 10 kV SiC MOSFET devices will minimize the number of power-cells needed to operate in 2–13.8 kV MV distribution systems, but more importantly, they will render feasible a power conversion efficiency > 98 %, and a power density > 10 kW/l. This is highly relevant given that these are two key performance metrics that will further increase the value of F-CHP systems by shortening the time required to recover their investment costs.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Antigua and Barbuda Distributed Energy Resources Deployment Guidelines

This document is designed to provide comprehensive considerations, best practices and guidance for deployment of Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) in Antigua and Barbuda. The document provides lists of various technology selection guidance including technical specifications, requirements and applicable key standards and code associated with key DERs and balance of plant equipment. The document also presents the key microgrid design considerations to integrate the DERs to achieve the economic, decarbonization and resiliency goals. Taking into account sensitive grid for such islands, for grid readiness and screening the potential DER interconnection, general approach is highlighted along with the potential technical interconnection requirements. Furthermore, this document shows the key stakeholders involved in such DER integration and/or microgrid project and how key responsible project team can be qualified. Finally, this document refers to key information about warranties and consumer rights and maintenance of the systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Hydropower Black Start: A Guidebook for Retrofitting Grid Dependent Hydropower

Not all United States (US) hydropower plants were designed to provide black start, but they are increasingly needed to uphold resilience in the evolving electric grid. This guidance is designed to help understand the minimal retrofits required for grid dependent hydropower (GDH) plants behind the point of interconnection (POI). For distribution connected hydropower plants or those with dedicated cranking paths, such upgrades can be sufficient for the plant to provide black start. For others, more coordination with the transmission system operator will be needed. This guidebook answers a number of questions relevant to retrofitting hydropower plants with black start capabilities. For example, the guidebook answers: • How flexible do the wicket gate controls need to be? • Who needs to do hydro governor model validation, why, and how? • How robust and flexible do the excitation and AVR controls need to be? • What protection settings need to be adjusted? • What relay(s) will need to be bypassed or overridden and at what risk? • What is the electrical energy demand of the station load or auxiliary power systems? • What should the strategy to energize transformer(s) along cranking path to address inrush currents be? • How should the critical load restoration be sequenced? In addition to outlining the specifications that hydropower plants need to meet for each component to be able to perform black start, this guidebook provides a set of case studies for specific upgrades needed at actual plants. Between the case studies of plants that have already performed black start retrofits and the examples of how this guidebook can be applied to scope future retrofits, five key themes have been identified for retrofit needs. 1. Protection needs “black start” mode: hydropower plants that are not designed with black start capabilities will have protections that prevent them from interconnecting to a “dead bus.” These protections will need to be overridden in every retrofit case and a separate black start mode should be established so that operators can safely switch between black start and grid connected modes, minimizing the risk to the plant. 2. Wicket gates need modern controls: digital governors accelerate the parameter tuning process and gate position sensors improve controllability, so plants with mechanical governors should be upgraded. Furthermore, a black start and islanding mode should be established for controls to maximize plant performance. 3. Robust excitation support: the DC system or excitation generator needs to be reliable enough to form and sustain the rotor electromagnetic field. These systems are typically undersized in plants that were not designed for black start, so they will need to be upgraded. 4. Turbine-governor model validation and operator training: validation of a standard hydro governor model is needed to characterize the dynamic response (i.e., inertial and primary frequency response) of the GDH. This is required for control development and old hydropower plants often have outdated or incorrect models. Operator training is also typically required to ensure the hardware retrofits are utilized correctly during the black start process. 5. Transformer and cranking path energization: any upgradation and control adjustment in front of the POI will depend upon the existing interconnection. Coordination with the transmission or distribution operator may be required.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Restoration Hydro: A Watershed Approach to Standard Modular New Hydropower

The objectives of FOA DE- FOA-0001836- “Standard Modular Hydropower” included designing a standardized, modular, and environmentally compatible hydropower schematic for implementation in greenfield sites that generate up to 10 MW of capacity. Utilizing funds competitively awarded under DOE’s Water Power Technologies Office, the Natel Energy team developed a concept for modular new stream reach (NSR) hydropower that incorporates multi species upstream and downstream fish passage, improved river channel connectivity, and recreational modules. The in-stream design of the collective modules minimized site specific design and maximized the opportunities for modularity. Financial data was also presented using actual costs from regional suppliers, with figures provided in 2022 dollars. While the project team did not address potential permitting process improvements, the site selection criteria did consider established barriers to hydropower development such as tribal and preserved lands, interconnection proximity, and endangered species to exclude or deprioritize. The project’s design schematic met the objectives of the FOA, and presented a unique solution that targets alluvial pockets as natural features for sustainable development. Natel’s concept also incorporated the company's fish-safe Restoration Hydro Turbine for safe downstream passage, while featuring a rock arch that integrates fish passage, water, recreation, and grade control modules (including sediment). Alignment with the Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) “Innovative Design Concepts for Standard Modular Hydropower and Pumped-Storage Hydropower” Program: According to the Hydropower Vision (DOE, 2016), approximately 16 GW of hydropower growth is possible with the development of technology solutions that balance efficiency, economics, and environmental sustainability. The desired outcome of the SMH program is transformational innovation specifically in the site identification, conceptual, and detailed design phases of technology development lifecycles (DOE, 2018). In developing the SMH design schematic, the team aimed to address the opportunities outlined in the Vision through an inverted design philosophy; rather than singularly prioritizing efficiency and power production, the team focused on integrating hydropower with restoration of degraded streams to optimal ecosystem function and provision of exceptional recreation value as design criteria. To achieve this, Restoration Hydro incorporates the principles of nature-based engineering (WWAP, 2018) and biomimicry (Biomimicry NL.) to strategically deploy complementary combinations of permanent, semi-permanent, and ephemeral low-head structures - such as natural and engineered log jams - that harness geomorphological and hydrological processes at the landscape-scale. Primary applications of Restoration Hydro include: 1) restoration of degraded watersheds’ natural ecological function and enhancement of hydrological connectivity; and 2) creation of associated co-benefits to hydro production, including increased groundwater recharge, improved sediment transport and management, improved water security and water quality. Restoration Hydro projects build upon proven watershed restoration engineering techniques by integrating hydropower turbines into low-head structures using innovative and evolving civil works concepts that facilitate fish and sediment passage, and in some cases create additional revenue-generating recreational opportunities. Powering low-head structures creates a directly monetizable layer of economic value in the form of flexible, reliable, renewable energy on top of the already high-value water, environmental and recreational benefits of watershed and river restoration. The approach aims to create a virtuous, self-reinforcing cycle whereby Restoration Hydro projects support the scaling of ecosystem restoration activities, creating a water-energy-carbon multiplier effect that, through the principles of adaptive change management: 1) improves the resilience of landscapes and downstream population centers for changing hydrological cycles; 2) creates a reliable energy resource that facilitates the integration of intermittent renewable power sources into grids; and 3) supports climate change mitigation through grid decarbonization and enhanced ecosystem carbon capture and retention.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

A FETI approach to domain decomposition for meshfree discretizations of nonlocal problems

We propose a domain decomposition method for the efficient simulation of nonlocal problems. Our approach is based on a multi-domain formulation of a nonlocal diffusion problem where the subdomains share “nonlocal” interfaces of the size of the nonlocal horizon. This system of nonlocal equations is first rewritten in terms of minimization of a nonlocal energy, then discretized with a meshfree approximation and finally solved via a Lagrange multiplier approach in a way that resembles the finite element tearing and interconnect method. Specifically, we propose a distributed projected gradient algorithm for the solution of the Lagrange multiplier system, whose unknowns determine the nonlocal interface conditions between subdomains. Several two-dimensional numerical tests on problems as large as 191 million unknowns illustrate the strong and the weak scalability of our algorithm, which outperforms the standard approach to the distributed numerical solution of the problem. Finally, this work is the first rigorous numerical study in a two-dimensional multi-domain setting for nonlocal operators with finite horizon and, as such, it is a fundamental step towards increasing the use of nonlocal models in large scale simulations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DROP DURABILITY ASSESSMENT OF ELECTRONIC ASSEMBLIES UNDER OFF-AXIS LOADING WITH SKEWED FIXTURES

This thesis studies drop durability of electronic assemblies when the acceleration vector is oriented at 45° to the out-of-plane direction of the circuit card. The off-axis drop tests are accomplished with a skewed fixture and are conducted as a proxy for multiaxial drop testing. Advanced shock testing and vibration test methods have been developed over the last few decades to better represent real-world field environments during ground-based laboratory testing. However, many of these test methods require expensive and specialized equipment not available in most laboratories. An alternative approach for approximating simultaneous loading along multiple axes on conventional equipment utilizes skewed fixtures which have seen use in off-axis random vibration and drop impact testing. These methods generally rely on the conversion of a uniaxial input load from the test equipment (using a uniaxial drop tower or shaker) into a multiaxial load when resolved in the reference frame of the test article (mounted on a skewed fixture). Skewed fixture design is presented and recommendations for conducting skewed angle drop testing are introduced based on local measurements along the skewed face of the fixture to accurately monitor the impact event. Characterization tests were performed with a skewed fixture, at simultaneous acceleration loads from 500 to 3,000 g in two (in-plane and out-of-plane) directions, while meeting standard time domain tolerances. Upon experimental characterization, drop shock durability tests were conducted on a printed circuit assembly (PCA). Mean drops-to-failure were measured and quantified with Weibull statistics. Dominant solder joint failure modes were identified via failure analysis. Prior work on inclined angle impact testing is limited, and the majority of solder joint interconnect level fatigue studies are conducted considering perpendicular loading normal the circuit card. Low-cycle fatigue curves are generated based on plastic strain and plastic work density within the solder joint. A multiscale nonlinear finite element model is used to relate board-level flexure to solder joint interconnect level plastic strain. A high strain rate solder constitutive model allows for accurate modeling of solder plasticity resulting from high-impact drop shock. Fatigue parameters are computed from the Coffin-Manson relation and Palmgren-Miner damage accumulation. This work serves to apply established low-cycle fatigue methods for conventional drop shock loading (impact normal to circuit card) to non-perpendicular loading with a skewed fixture.

Hower, Jonathan [Kansas City National Security Cam↗

Electrolytic Renewable Fuel Production Optimal Operation Investigation - H2@Scale: Cooperative Research and Development Final Report, CRADA Number CRD-19-00818

This work explored the optimal design and operation of electrolytic hydrogen production from renewable power. While there are many financial incentives for renewable hydrogen, this work investigated the effects of Low Carbon Fuel Standards (LCFS) on the hydrogen breakeven cost. To this end, this project developed optimized operational strategies for electrolytic hydrogen facilities in the California. Four specific model projects were used as the basis for the analysis. Three model projects will be located in California and one in Texas or the Midwest to be determined during the project. All projects include interconnection to the natural gas grid as a method of transport for the product fuel and the hydrogen cases will also consider alternative modes of transport. The operational optimization will maximize project return through fuel production and grid services based on future scenarios for the value of each. The effort will rely on modeling tools developed by NREL and the UCI for grid modeling as well as the integrated resource planning tool (IRP), RESOLVE, which is the official IRP tool used by the California Public Utility Commission (CPUC). The development of this project can help to inform future hydrogen deployment, policy and regulation makers, research and development decisions, and private and public investment.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Cybersecurity Risk Profiles for Distributed Energy Resource Management Systems

Managing the digitalization of increasingly diversity energy resources is a complex challenge for energy systems planners and managers. As the penetration of solar photovoltaics (PV) and other distributed renewable energy resources (DERs) expands, distributed energy resource management systems (DERMS) will play an increasingly important role in managing, monitoring, and controlling DERs as electric systems before more distributed, interconnected, and networked. However, the cybersecurity implications of DERMS deployments are not well understood today. A lack of understanding around the cybersecurity implications of DERMS deployments and variability in the security posture of DERMS vendors, owners, and operators could introduce new security risks to evolving electric power systems. This paper describes cybersecurity attack scenarios on DERMS, identifies related cybersecurity standards and guidelines, reviews the security features of state-of-the-art DERMS solutions, and offers cybersecurity guidance for DERMS vendors, owners, and operators to protect DERMS' unique capabilities. Standardizing cybersecurity requirements for DERMS could help improve the security of DERMS integrations and improve innovations that are more secure by design. The cybersecurity guidance found in this paper is intended to offer a unified approach and lay the foundation for future standardization of DERMS cybersecurity to reduce risk to the solar industry and other renewable energy stakeholders when integrating these technologies with electric power systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A Synoptic System for Capturing Ecosystem Control Points Across Terrestrial‐Aquatic Interfaces

Interconnected landscape features such as terrestrial‐aquatic interfaces play an outsized role in biogeochemical cycles as ecosystem control points, but it is notoriously challenging to characterize these. Here, we document a synoptic sensor network design that is (a) flexible to accommodate diverse ecosystem interfaces and gradients, (b) adaptable to monitoring and modeling needs of small and large projects alike, (c) standardized for intercomparability across sites and field experiments, and (d) adequately replicated to capture heterogeneity of each parameter monitored. This real‐time monitoring of surface water, groundwater, soil, and vegetation supports configuration and evaluation of models that span upland, wetland, open water strata, and transitions between them. We established the network at seven sites along the Chesapeake Bay and Lake Erie coastlines, including large‐scale flood manipulation experiments in both regions. A central design element is “one data logger program to rule them all”—a collection of sensor‐specific modules deployed on 40 loggers controlling ∼2,000 sensors, with the goal of streamlining maintenance, debugging, and reproducible data processing. The network generates ∼6 M observations per month, capturing system dynamics at the broad spatial and fine temporal scales needed to initialize and benchmark models; measurement frequency can be modified remotely to capture events. This network design has also revealed behaviors not represented in Earth system models, such as transient groundwater oxygen pulses. Completely documented and open source, this standardized, flexible, and efficient sensor network design can reduce barriers to understanding environmental changes and ecosystem responses across systems and scales.

Ward, Nicholas D. [Pacific Northwest National Labo↗

Unleashed from constrained optimization: quantum computing for quantum chemistry employing generator coordinate inspired method

Hybrid quantum-classical approaches offer potential solutions to quantum chemistry problems, yet they often manifest as constrained optimization problems. Here, we explore the interconnection between constrained optimization and generalized eigenvalue problems through the Unitary Coupled Cluster (UCC) excitation generators. Inspired by the generator coordinate method, we employ these UCC excitation generators to construct non-orthogonal, overcomplete many-body bases, projecting the system Hamiltonian into an effective Hamiltonian, which bypasses issues such as barren plateaus that heuristic numerical minimizers often encountered in standard variational quantum eigensolver (VQE). Diverging from conventional quantum subspace expansion methods, we introduce an adaptive scheme that robustly constructs the many-body basis sets from a pool of the UCC excitation generators. This scheme supports the development of a hierarchical ADAPT quantum-classical strategy, enabling a balanced interplay between subspace expansion and ansatz optimization to address complex, strongly correlated quantum chemical systems cost-effectively, setting the stage for more advanced quantum simulations in chemistry.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Testing Asoleyo Decorative Solar Cell and Modules: Cooperative Research and Development, CRADA Number CRD-20-16732 (Final Report)

Team Asoleyo is transforming the utilitarian rectangular grid that dominates the visual style of standard solar panels by re-designing solar cells’ silver contact grid using principles of symmetry, rhythm, and line. Our designs use well-established manufacturing equipment, techniques, and materials, achieving similar manufacturing costs but far superior aesthetic effect- without the need for additional layers or occlusion. This project will test new decorative PV Cell front contact designs, individually and interconnected within modules, for their performance characteristics.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Load Composition Analysis in Support of the NERC Load Modeling Task Force. 2019-2020 Field Test of the Composite Load Model

In 2015, NERC’s reliability standards were revised to require the use of dynamic load models in transmission planning studies. To comply with the standards, planners must use load models that explicitly represent the dynamic behavior of the different constituents of load at each load bus within their transmission planning models. The most important of these constituents are motor-driven and power electronics-based loads. Collectively, these representations are known as composite load models. In anticipation of the compliance date for the new standards, NERC’s Load Modeling Task Force (LMTF), in 2019, initiated a field test of composite load models involving the regional reliability planning entities. In support of the field test, DOE and BPA researchers developed region-specific composite load models that could be assigned to each non-industrial load bus in the planning models for each of the North American interconnections. Separate models were developed for each hour of a summer peak day, a winter peak day, and a spring light-load day. This report is the technical documentation for the load composition analysis that was conducted to develop these non-industrial composite load models.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A High-Fidelity Electromagnetic Transient Model of Inverter-based Resources Integrated to an IEEE-9 Bus System for Benchmarking Studies

An inverter-based resource (IBR) is a source of electricity that is asynchronously connected to the electrical grid via an electronic power converter. These power sources lack the intrinsic behaviors of the standard power plants, presenting specific challenges to system stability. These power sources lack the intrinsic behaviors of the standards power plants and their features are almost entirely defined by the control strategy used on them, presenting specific challenges to system stability as their penetration increases into the already fragile Bulk Power System (BPS). Utilizing renewable energy has a great upside but the electrical industry needs to understand the requirements like performing electromagnetic transient (EMT) simulation studies in planning and/or in interconnection studies. This paper presents the development of a high-fidelity EMT model based on commercial equipment and field parameters, which at the same time aims to study the increasing penetration of IBRs and their impact on the actual BPS. The open-source EMT model developed will be a benchmarking example that can be used to evaluate algorithms in the power grid (including evaluating grid-forming controls, power system monitoring and operation, etc.).

Martinez Montejano, Misael↗

Ultra-light antennas via charge programmed deposition additive manufacturing

Abstract The demand for lightweight antennas in 5 G/6 G communication, wearables, and aerospace applications is rapidly growing. However, standard manufacturing techniques are limited in structural complexity and easy integration of multiple material classes. Here we introduce charge programmed multi-material additive manufacturing platform, offering unparalleled flexibility in antenna design and the capability for rapid printing of intricate antenna structures that are unprecedented or necessitate a series of fabrication routes. Demonstrating its potential, we present a transmitarray antenna composed of an interconnected, multi-layered array of dielectric/conductive S-ring unit cells, reducing 94% mass of conventional antenna configurations. A fully printed circular polarized transmitarray system fed by a source and a Risley prism antenna system operating at 19 GHz both show close alignment between testing results and numerical simulations. This printing method establishes a universal platform, propelling discovery of new antenna designs and enabling data-driven design and optimizations where rapid production of antenna designs is crucial.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Managing Solar Photovoltaic Integration in the Western United States: Resource Adequacy Considerations

This study examines the impact of reserve margin-based reliability assessment, as commonly used in capacity expansion models, on planning resource-adequate power systems under high penetrations of solar photovoltaics (PV). As a generation resource, PV is operationally different from the conventional dispatchable resources for which most capacity expansion models were designed. The question this study attempts to answer is whether large amounts of PV on a system (in this case, the Western Interconnection of North America) would bias the results of conventional reserve margin-based capacity expansion modeling towards an over- or under-provisioning of resource adequacy. This analysis used NREL’s Resource Planning Model (RPM) for capacity expansion modeling and NREL’s Probabilistic Resource Adequacy Suite (PRAS) for resource adequacy assessment. RPM uses a reserve margin requirement to enforce resource adequacy. PRAS, a collection of tools for studying the resource adequacy of power systems and the adequacy contributions of individual resources on a probabilistic basis, was used to compute multiple resource adequacy metrics across a number of simulated scenarios and system representations with differing regional detail. In all cases, including high PV penetrations (up to 33% annual generation from PV, interconnection-wide), RPM was able to produce resource-adequate systems as measured by normalized expected unserved energy and loss-of-load expectation results from PRAS. The accuracy of reserve margin approaches depends heavily on the underlying assumptions informing the capacity credit assigned to variable and energy-limited resources, particularly when such resources are abundant in the modeled system. RPM’s standard methodology for estimating variable and flexible resources’ capacity contributions, which is based on the top 100 hours of net load, did not appear to systematically undervalue or overvalue variable generation relative to a more rigorous equivalent firm capacity assessment using PRAS, although both over- and under-valuations were observed in specific scenarios. In the worst cases, the top 100 hour method underestimated the equivalent firm capacity of PV by two percentage points, and overestimated the equivalent firm capacity of PV by five percentage points. Calculating capacity contributions based on the top 10 hours of net load systematically underestimated equivalent firm capacities at more modest PV penetrations, but was often a better approximation of equivalent firm capacity than the existing 100-hour approach in scenarios with higher PV penetrations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗