Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Load Prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 127 records · Page 7

On how avalanches penetrate the SOL and broaden heat loads

Recent experiments reported a correlation between power law core temperature spectra and Dα emission, suggesting that heat avalanches penetrate the SOL. This paper derives a threshold criterion for avalanche penetration using a reduced model. Avalanches with ($\bigtriangledown$$\tilde{T}$) rms > $\bigtriangledown$$\tilde{T}$ crit at the separatrix are predicted to penetrate, and so broaden the SOL and heat load distribution. $\bigtriangledown$$\tilde{T}$ crit is ~ 1/$τ$ ∥ , where $τ$ ∥ is the parallel heat flow time through the SOL. Penetration occurs when avalanches are strong enough to steepen sufficiently to shock at the separatrix. A positive correlation is found between the nonlinear drive for steepening and the penetration depth. In particular, penetration depth exceeds that of the heuristic drift limit when shocks form. Implications for numerical and physical experiments are also discussed.

SOL heat load↗

HIV drug resistance during antiretroviral therapy scale-up in Uganda, 2012–19: a population-based, longitudinal study

Background With scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa, increasing pretreatment HIV drug resistance has been reported; however, the broader effect of ART expansion on population-level resistance patterns remains insufficiently quantified. We aimed to estimate the longitudinal prevalence of drug resistance and resistance-conferring mutations. Methods This study used data collected as part of the Rakai Community Cohort Study (RCCS), an open population-based census and cohort study conducted in southern Uganda. At each survey round, residents aged 15–49 years are invited to participate and receive a structured questionnaire that obtains sociodemographic, behavioural, and health information, including self-reported past and current ART use. Voluntary HIV testing is conducted using a rapid test algorithm and a venous blood sample. People with HIV provide samples for viral load quantification and deep sequencing. We analysed RCCS survey, HIV viral load, and deep sequencing (which was used to predict resistance) data from five survey rounds. The key outcomes were the population prevalence of viraemic people with HIV with non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI), nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI), protease inhibitor, or multiclass resistance among all participants (regardless of HIV serostatus) in the 2015 and 2017 surveys. Prevalence of class-specific resistance and resistance-conferring substitutions were estimated using robust log-Poisson regression. Findings Between Aug 10, 2011, and Nov 4, 2020, there were 43 361 participants in the RCCS and 7923 (18·27%) people with HIV. Over five survey rounds, 93 622 participant visits occurred, among which 17 460 (18·65%) were from people with HIV. Over the analysis period, the median age of study participants remained similar (28 years [22–35] in 2012 and 29 years [21–38] in 2019). Sufficient data were available to reliably genotype 4072 (90·03%) of 4523 participant visits from 3407 people with HIV for at least one drug. Overall population prevalence of resistance contributed by viraemic pretreatment people with HIV decreased between 2012 and 2017 from 0·56% (95% CI 0·42–0·75) to 0·25% (0·18–0·33) for NNRTI and from 0·24% (0·15–0·37) to 0·05% (0·02–0·10) for NRTI (prevalence ratio 0·44 [0·29–0·68] for NNRTI and 0·21 [0·09–0·47] for NRTI). Between 2012 and 2017, NNRTI resistance among viraemic pretreatment people with HIV increased from 4·86% (3·69–6·42) to 9·61% (7·27–12·7; prevalence ratio 1·98 [1·34–2·91]). The prevalence of NNRTI and NRTI resistance was substantially higher among viraemic treatment-experienced people with HIV (51·49% [46·24–57·34] for NNRTI and 36·46% [30·06–44·22] for NRTI in 2017) than among pretreatment people with HIV. NNRTI and NRTI resistance was predominantly attributable to rtK103N and rtM184V. inT97A was observed at a similar prevalence among viraemic treatment-experienced (9·96% [6·41–15·48]) and viraemic pretreatment (10·56% [8·01–13·93]) people with HIV; no major dolutegravir resistance mutations were observed. Interpretation Despite rising NNRTI resistance among pretreatment people with HIV, overall population prevalence of pretreatment HIV drug-resistant viraemia decreased due to increasing ART uptake and viral suppression. This finding underscores the crucial role of achieving and maintaining high ART coverage in reducing transmission of drug-resistant HIV. The high prevalence of mutations conferring resistance to components of first-line ART regimens among viraemic people with HIV is potentially concerning. Funding National Institutes of Health, Johns Hopkins University Center for AIDS Research, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

PFSA-Ionomer Adsorption to C and Pt/C Particles in Fuel-Cell Inks

Catalyst inks used to make fuel-cell electrodes consist of Pt/C catalyst particles and a perfluorosulfonic acid (PFSA) ionomer dispersed in water/alcohol solvent mixtures. PFSA ionomer in the ink adsorbs to the surface of the catalyst particles, dictating the dispersion colloid properties. Following adsorption, the subsequent distribution of excess nonadsorbed ionomer in the ink then governs the final structure of the electrode. Here, we characterize the adsorption of the PFSA ionomer onto Pt/C catalyst particles. PFSA adsorption is largely irreversible. Adsorbed sulfonic-acid moieties impart a negative charge on the catalyst surface, causing electrostatic repulsion between the free ionomer in solution and the ionomer-covered Pt/C particle surface. The amount of adsorption is limited by the resulting electrostatic charge that grows as more ionomer adsorbs, and the catalyst surface becomes more negatively charged. Attenuating electrostatic repulsion by increasing the ink ionic strength promotes ionomer adsorption. Electrostatically limited adsorption is observed, irrespective of the solvent water/n-propanol ratio or the catalyst particle porosity and Pt loading. Experimentally measured ionomer adsorption isotherms are well predicted by a Smoluchowski-based kinetic adsorption model, in which the electrostatic energy barrier for adsorption is predicted from DLVO theory. These findings help to unravel the complex phenomena within these colloidal dispersions, allowing for subsequent tailoring of inks to optimize fuel-cell electrode structure and performance.

Adsorption↗

Analytic Expressions for Extracting Far Scrape-Off Layer Transport Coefficients from the Plasma-Wall Interaction of Divertor Tokamaks

Magnetic-confinement DT pilot plants and DEMO-class devices will employ thin breeding blanket first walls with substantially lower steady-state power-handling margins than ITER-like thick walls, making reliable prediction of main-chamber particle and heat loads increasingly critical. This report addresses that need by developing analytic tools to interpret far scrape-off layer (far-SOL) plasma–wall interaction measurements in divertor tokamaks, with the goal of extracting effective cross-field transport coefficients from “window-frame” experiments and related diagnostics.

Stangeby, P. C. [Univ. of Toronto, ON (Canada)]↗

Distributed Wind for Commercial Loads

Distributed wind can help meet on site energy and resilience needs for a wide variety of commercial loads .While it is a variable resource, it has predictable daily and annual production trends. The presence of on-site renewable generation can enhance resilience, supplying power for long periods of time without worrying about conserving fuel supply. The addition of properly sized storage or complementary solar resources can further reduce the challenges of intermittency and reduce the need for fuel-limited backup power during outage situations. This fact sheet explores further the energy and resilience requirements of commercial loads and how distributed wind may be a good match to meet their load needs.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

General-Purpose Heat Source Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator Flight Unit 5 Refurbished (GPHS-RTG F5R) Power Prediction

INL has evaluated and refurbished General Purpose Heat Source (GPHS) Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator (RTG) Flight Unit 5 (GPHS-RTG F5R or F5R) that was defueled in 2005. The generator has passed all the INL internal reviews, an end item data package has been delivered to NASA and is ready fueling for a mission. NASA requested a user’s guide for F5R with enough detail for a prospective mission proposal. This report documents the development of the power prediction model used in the user’s guide. The prediction evaluated the thermoelectric “burn-in” and the graceful degradation modes of the missions and developed a thermal inventory dependent equation that predicts the power that matches Galileo, Cassini, and PNH within a three-standard deviation of ±1%. This prediction is only valid for the 30 VDC load voltage of these missions.

30 - DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Sprain energy consequences for damage localization and fracture mechanics

The 2023 smooth Lagrangian Crack-Band Model (slCBM), inspired by the 2020 invention of the gap test, prevented spurious damage localization during fracture growth by introducing the second gradient of the displacement field vector, named the “sprain,” as the localization limiter. The key idea was that, in the finite element implementation, the displacement vector and its gradient should be treated as independent fields with the lowest ( C 0 ) continuity, constrained by a second-order Lagrange multiplier tensor. Coupled with a realistic constitutive law for triaxial softening damage, such as microplane model M7, the known limitations of the classical Crack Band Model were eliminated. Here, we show that the slCBM closely reproduces the size effect revealed by the gap test at various crack-parallel stresses. To describe it, we present an approximate corrective formula, although a strong loading-path dependence limits its applicability. Except for the rare case of zero crack-parallel stresses, the fracture predictions of the line crack models (linear elastic fracture mechanics, phase-field, extended finite element method (XFEM), cohesive crack models) can be as much as 100% in error. We argue that the localization limiter concept must be extended by including the resistance to material rotation gradients. We also show that, without this resistance, the existing strain-gradient damage theories may predict a wrong fracture pattern and have, for Mode II and III fractures, a load capacity error as much as 55%. Finally, we argue that the crack-parallel stress effect must occur in all materials, ranging from concrete to atomistically sharp cracks in crystals.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Addressing the Split Incentive Challenge for Enhanced Solar Adoption in Multifamily Rental Properties [Abstract]

The split incentive problem is particularly pronounced in rental markets, where landlords prioritize investments that directly increase property value or rental income. Since energy savings from solar photovoltaic (PV) systems primarily benefit tenants, landlords may perceive little return on investment unless mechanisms exist to recapture some of the financial gains. The primary objective of this project is to develop a publicly available, web-based tool to analyze the U.S. Department of Energy’s ResStock database, which models the U.S. residential building stock. The tool allows users to filter buildings by location, type, HVAC system, square footage, and other characteristics, and outputs typical electric load profiles. By leveraging location-specific electric load data, Fram Energy aims to advance business strategies that address the split incentive barrier and promote the adoption of solar PV installations in rental properties. In addition, a machine learning model will be developed to weigh the marginal contribution of building features across the dataset in predicting electricity demand, supporting guided decision making in forecasting electric load profiles. Lastly, based on each building’s location, load profile, and utility’s electricity rate, an optimized solar photovoltaic array and battery energy storage system will be sized to provide energy arbitrage opportunities.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Cross-slip and easy-glide CRSS in titanium: Theoretical predictions and in-situ TEM measurements

This study investigates the mechanics of prismatic and first-order pyramidal $\langle$a$\rangle$ slip in titanium (Ti), elucidating the physics of easy-glide and cross-slip through a combination of theory and experiments. Screw-character prismatic (Pr) dislocations in Ti are of particular interest because their complex cores can be stable or unstable, leading to activation by either cross-slip or planar glide. To investigate these mechanisms, site-specific micro tensile samples were prepared using focused ion beam (FIB) milling and mounted on a push-to-pull (PTP) device for in-situ transmission electron microscopy (TEM) tensile testing. The in-situ experiments provide direct observations of the onset of dislocation motion and the precise determination of the critical resolved shear stress (CRSS) for the activated mechanisms, and its evolution with load cycling. A comprehensive theory has been developed to predict the CRSS values for easy glide, cross-slip, and multiplication of dislocations. Predicted critical stresses for pyramidal (π)-to-Pr and reverse cross-slip agree closely with the experimental measurements. The latter cross-slip stress is a factor of two higher than that of unobstructed planar slip. The model accounts for overlapping dislocation cores and employs a Wigner-Seitz based cell to evaluate misfit energies. By combining ab initio density functional theory (DFT) with anisotropic elasticity, the framework identifies minimum energy pathways for dislocation glide, which can be intermittent and zig-zag. A simplified expression utilizing (π) and Pr Schmid factor ratios is proposed for critical stress corresponding to (π)-to-Pr cross-slip transition. The results are strongly dependent on crystal orientation, underscoring non-Schmid behavior. Overall, this study explores key critical stress parameters essential for informing higher-scale simulations of plasticity in Ti.

Critical stress↗

Coupling Microstructural Evolution Simulations to Material Property Degradation Predictions for Plasma-Facing Materials

Reliable material performance is required for plasma-facing material (PFM) candidates. Previous research has shown that plasma and neutron radiation exposure induces microstructural changes in PFMs; changes in thermal and electrical conductivities and in material hardening and embrittlement were also observed after neutron irradiation. These material property changes will negatively impact the performance of the PFMs in a fusion reactor. Despite the well-known connection between material microstructure, properties, and performance, there is a need for validated modeling capabilities connecting PFM property degradation with microstructural evolution under fusion-relevant conditions. We are developing a simulation capability to couple plasma-induced microstructural evolution to material property degradation. Our approach relies on deliberate mapping between individual simulation models and experimental characterization for validation. The open-source Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) software was used for this simulation capability development. A MOOSE phase-field model was coupled with the cluster dynamics code, Xolotl, to predict microstructural evolution. Microstructure characterization techniques, including scanning electron microscopy (SEM), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), and laser scanning confocal microscopy (LSCM) are used to validate these microstructural evolution simulations. Calculation of thermal and electrical conductivities with first principles simulations was performed for bulk material and for grain boundaries; these results are used within MOOSE models to calculate effective thermal and electrical conductivities as a function of grain characteristics. Thermoreflectance and four-probe techniques were employed to measure the thermal and electrical conductivities, respectively. A MOOSE crystal plasticity model was adapted to predict microstructure-sensitive deformation behavior, and X-ray diffraction (XRD) was used to collect bulk dislocation density data for validation. After individual simulation validation, these models are coupled to predict material property changes resulting from plasma exposure. We focused here on an experimental design to emphasize the separate effects of moderate thermal loads and plasma exposure using tungsten. Annealing of tungsten was performed under a protective environment for temperatures ranging from 500 C to 1500 C. The plasma exposure was completed in the Tritium Plasma Experiment at Idaho National Laboratory under a deuterium flux of 1e22 D/m^2-s. This incremental approach is employed to build confidence in the modeling capability: separate-effects tests ensure that the models capture key mechanisms from single environmental conditions before predicting PFM property degradation under combined loads. We will show our early results from coupling these simulation models to predict PFM property changes from microstructural evolution. Comparisons of the simulation results with preliminary validation data will be discussed.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Evaluating switch lifetime in soft-switched single-stage differential-mode SST

The reliability of semiconductor switches in single-stage differential-mode solid-state transformers (DM-SSTs) has not been systematically evaluated under soft-switching operation and realistic grid conditions. This paper presents a switch-level reliability analysis for soft-switched and hard-switched DM-SST configurations by integrating converter-specific power loss modeling with empirical lifetime prediction. Analytical derivation of device current profiles specific to the DM-SST is used to characterize electrothermal stress, which is then mapped to lifetime using degradation models obtained from power cycling tests (PCTs). Applied to realistic SST load profiles and grid voltage variations, this approach provides a probabilistic prediction of switch lifetime for the DM-SST. Lifetime estimates for both SiC MOSFETs and Si IGBTs are presented, offering insight into device degradation under converter operating conditions. The results quantify the reliability benefits of soft switching in single-stage SSTs, highlighting how switching dynamics influence long-term switch degradation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Connect microstructure evolution to property degradation with validated simulation

Reliable material performance is required for plasma-facing material (PFM) candidates. Previous research has shown that plasma and neutron radiation exposure induces microstructural changes in PFMs; changes in thermal and electrical conductivities and in material hardening and embrittlement were also observed after neutron irradiation. These material property changes will negatively impact the performance of the PFMs in a fusion reactor. Despite the well-known connection between material microstructure, properties, and performance, there is a need for validated modeling capabilities connecting PFM property degradation with microstructural evolution under fusion-relevant conditions. We are developing a simulation capability to couple plasma-induced microstructural evolution to material property degradation. Our approach relies on deliberate mapping between individual simulation models and experimental characterization for validation. The open-source Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) software was used for this simulation capability development. A MOOSE phase-field model was coupled with the cluster dynamics code, Xolotl, to predict microstructural evolution. Microstructure characterization techniques, including scanning electron microscopy (SEM), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), and laser scanning confocal microscopy (LSCM) are used to validate these microstructural evolution simulations. Calculation of thermal and electrical conductivities with first principles simulations was performed for bulk material and for grain boundaries; these results are used within MOOSE models to calculate effective thermal and electrical conductivities as a function of grain characteristics. Thermoreflectance and four-probe techniques were employed to measure the thermal and electrical conductivities, respectively. A MOOSE crystal plasticity model was adapted to predict microstructure-sensitive deformation behavior, and X-ray diffraction (XRD) was used to collect bulk dislocation density data for validation. After individual simulation validation, these models are coupled to predict material property changes resulting from plasma exposure. We focused here on an experimental design to emphasize the separate effects of moderate thermal loads and plasma exposure using tungsten. Annealing of tungsten was performed under a protective environment for temperatures ranging from 500$^o$C to 1500$^o$C. The plasma exposure was completed in the Tritium Plasma Experiment at Idaho National Laboratory under a deuterium flux of 1e22 $\frac{D}{m^2s}$. This incremental approach is employed to build confidence in the modeling capability: separate-effects tests ensure that the models capture key mechanisms from single environmental conditions before predicting PFM property degradation under combined loads. We will show our early results from coupling these simulation models to predict PFM property changes from microstructural evolution. Comparisons of the simulation results with preliminary validation data will be discussed.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Scaling of energy delivered through an electrostatic discharge to a small series load

We study the energy delivered through a small-resistance series “victim” load during electrostatic discharge events in air. For gap lengths over 1 mm, the fraction of the stored energy delivered is mostly gap-length independent, with a slight decrease at larger gaps due to electrode geometry. The energy to the victim scales linearly with circuit capacitance and victim load resistance but is not strongly dependent on circuit inductance. This scaling leads to a simple approach to predicting the maximum energy that will be delivered to a series resistance for the case where the victim load resistance is lower than the spark resistance.

42 ENGINEERING↗

TEC (ThermoElastoCreep) [SWR-25-167]

This repository provides a Python script to simulate the thermomechanical behavior of Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) receivers under periodic thermal loading. The simulation couples elastic and creep strains to predict stress relaxation, fatigue, and rupture life of the receiver structure. The work was done under the project Light Trapping Planar Cavity Receiver (LTPCR) funded by U.S. Department of Energy. All other relevant work and publications from LTPCR project can be found at https://github.com/NatLabRockies/LTPCR-Public

He, Xin [National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR),↗

Micrometer: Micromechanics transformer for predicting full field mechanical responses of heterogeneous materials

Predicting mechanical responses of heterogeneous materials across scales remains a significant challenge. Traditional computational methods often struggle with complex and multiscale nature of these materials, limiting their effectiveness in real-world applications. Here, in this paper, we introduce Micrometer, a vision transformer based deep learning model designed to predict full field mechanical responses of heterogeneous materials, bridging the gap between computer vision and solid mechanics problems. We show that Micrometer, trained on a large-scale high-resolution dataset of 2D fiber-reinforced composites, can achieve state-of-the-art performance in predicting microscale strain fields across a wide range of material properties and loading conditions. Our model demonstrates accuracy and computational efficiency in applications such as computational homogenization and multiscale modeling, reducing computational time by up to two orders of magnitude compared to conventional numerical solvers while maintaining less than 1 % errors in predicting macroscale stress fields. Furthermore, we showcase Micrometer’s adaptability through transfer learning experiments on new materials with limited data, highlighting its potential to tackle diverse scenarios in computational solid mechanics. These results represent a significant step towards AI-driven innovation in materials science, addressing the limitations of traditional numerical methods and paving the way for more efficient simulations of heterogeneous materials across various industrial applications.

Composite materials↗

Predicting microstructurally sensitive fatigue‐crack path in WE43 magnesium using high‐fidelity numerical modeling and three‐dimensional experimental characterization

Abstract Microstructurally small fatigue‐crack growth in polycrystalline materials is highly three‐dimensional due to sensitivity to local microstructural features (e.g., grains). One requirement for modeling microstructurally sensitive crack propagation is establishing the criteria that govern crack evolution, including crack deflection. Here, a high‐fidelity finite‐element modeling framework is used to assess the performance and validity of various crack‐growth criteria, including slip‐based metrics (e.g., fatigue‐indicator parameters), as potential criteria for predicting three‐dimensional crack paths in polycrystalline materials. The modeling framework represents cracks as geometrically explicit discontinuities and involves voxel‐based remeshing, mesh‐gradation control, and a crystal‐plasticity constitutive model. The predictions are compared to experimental measurements of WE43 magnesium samples subject to fatigue loading, for which three‐dimensional grain structures and fatigue‐crack surfaces were measured post‐mortem using near‐field high‐energy x‐ray diffraction microscopy and x‐ray computed tomography. Findings from this work are expected to improve the predictive capabilities of simulations involving microstructurally small fatigue‐crack growth in polycrystalline materials.

Engineering↗

AMAROK: A Radio Frequency Development Platform for High-Power, Full-Scale Positive Ion Sources for DIII-D Neutral Beam Injectors

Next-generation neutral beam injection (NBI) systems demand RF ion sources capable of efficiently coupling >120 kW at 2–4-MHz frequencies, yet existing designs face voltage standoff and impedance-matching challenges. To address this, the advanced multicoil antenna for RF operations at kilowatts (AMAROK) was developed as a high-power RF inductively coupled plasma (ICP) source delivering up to 200 kW in the 2–4-MHz range via four phase-controlled generators for flexible power sharing. Two antenna designs—a single-strap multiturn (MT) and a multistrap single-turn (ST) design—were evaluated to optimize resonance, impedance matching, and power coupling across plasma loads. Here, a semi-analytical self-resonant frequency (SRF) model, validated experimentally, predicts resonance trends for arbitrary turn counts and tubing diameters, enabling rapid antenna optimization. Strap-to-strap mutual inductance in the ST configuration showed strong spatial dependence, guiding generator operation and total load inductance. These insights informed a custom π -topology matching network, achieving stable impedance matching over a wide range of plasma-driven loads. Collectively, these results position AMAROK as a versatile testbed for advancing high-power RF source technology in fusion NBI applications.

DIII-D↗

Nepheline constraint for hanford HLW glass

The present work was intended to expand the available HLW glass property-composition data relating to nepheline formation on CCC heat treatment and to develop improved models to predict nepheline formation that would allow processing of high waste loading high-Al HLW glass formulations at the WTP.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗