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At least 127 records · Page 7

Quantifying Errors in 3D CME Parameters Derived from Synthetic Data Using White-Light Reconstruction Techniques

Current efforts in space weather forecasting of CMEs have been focused on predicting their arrival time and magnetic structure. To make these predictions, methods have been developed to derive the true CME speed, size, position, and mass, among others. Difficulties in determining the input parameters for CME forecasting models arise from the lack of direct measurements of the coronal magnetic fields and uncertainties in estimating the CME 3D geometric and kinematic parameters after eruption. White-light coronagraph images are usually employed by a variety of CME reconstruction techniques that assume more or less complex geometries. This is the first study from our International Space Science Institute (ISSI) team “Understanding Our Capabilities in Observing and Modeling Coronal Mass Ejections”, in which we explore how subjectivity affects the 3D CME parameters that are obtained from the Graduated Cylindrical Shell (GCS) reconstruction technique, which is widely used in CME research. To be able to quantify such uncertainties, the “true” values that are being fitted should be known, which are impossible to derive from observational data. We have designed two different synthetic scenarios where the “true” geometric parameters are known in order to quantify such uncertainties for the first time. We explore this by using two sets of synthetic data: 1) Using the ray-tracing option from the GCS model software itself, and 2) Using 3D magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation data from the Magnetohydrodynamic Algorithm outside a Sphere code. Our experiment includes different viewing configurations using single and multiple viewpoints. CME reconstructions using a single viewpoint had the largest errors and error ranges overall for both synthetic GCS and simulated MHD white-light data. As the number of viewpoints increased from one to two, the errors decreased by approximately 4° in latitude, 22° in longitude, 14° in tilt, and 10° in half-angle. Our results quantitatively show the critical need for at least two viewpoints to be able to reduce the uncertainty in deriving CME parameters. We did not find a significant decrease in errors when going from two to three viewpoints for our specific hypothetical three spacecraft scenario using synthetic GCS white-light data. As we expected, considering all configurations and numbers of viewpoints, the mean absolute errors in the measured CME parameters are generally significantly higher in the case of the simulated MHD white-light data compared to those from the synthetic white-light images generated by the GCS model. We found the following CME parameter error bars as a starting point for quantifying the minimum error in CME parameters from white-light reconstructions: Δθ (latitude)=6° +2° -3° , Δϕ (longitude)=11° +18° -6° , Δγ (tilt)=25° +8° -7° , Δx (half-angle)=10° +12° -6° , Δh (height)=0.6 +1.2 -0.4 R ⨀ , and Δκ (ratio)=0.1 +0.03 -0.02 .

Coronal mass ejections↗

Quantifying Errors in 3D CME Parameters Derived From Synthetic Data Using White-Light Reconstruction Techniques

Current efforts in space weather forecasting of CMEs have been focused on predicting their arrival time and magnetic structure. To make these predictions, methods have been developed to derive the true CME speed, size, position, and mass, among others. Difficulties in determining the input parameters for CME forecasting models arise from the lack of direct measurements of the coronal magnetic fields and uncertainties in estimating the CME 3D geometric and kinematic parameters after eruption. White-light coronagraph images are usually employed by a variety of CME reconstruction techniques that assume more or less complex geometries. This is the first study from our International Space Science Institute (ISSI) team “Understanding Our Capabilities in Observing and Modeling Coronal Mass Ejections”, in which we explore how subjectivity affects the 3D CME parameters that are obtained from the Graduated Cylindrical Shell (GCS) reconstruction technique, which is widely used in CME research. To be able to quantify such uncertainties, the “true” values that are being fitted should be known, which are impossible to derive from observational data. We have designed two different synthetic scenarios where the “true” geometric parameters are known in order to quantify such uncertainties for the first time. We explore this by using two sets of synthetic data: 1) Using the ray-tracing option from the GCS model software itself, and 2) Using 3D magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation data from the Magnetohydrodynamic Algorithm outside a Sphere code. Our experiment includes different viewing configurations using single and multiple viewpoints. CME reconstructions using a single viewpoint had the largest errors and error ranges overall for both synthetic GCS and simulated MHD white-light data. As the number of viewpoints increased from one to two, the errors decreased by approximately 4° in latitude, 22° in longitude, 14° in tilt, and 10° in half-angle. Our results quantitatively show the critical need for at least two viewpoints to be able to reduce the uncertainty in deriving CME parameters. We did not find a significant decrease in errors when going from two to three viewpoints for our specific hypothetical three spacecraft scenario using synthetic GCS white-light data. As we expected, considering all configurations and numbers of viewpoints, the mean absolute errors in the measured CME parameters are generally significantly higher in the case of the simulated MHD white-light data compared to those from the synthetic white-light images generated by the GCS model. We found the following CME parameter error bars as a starting point for quantifying the minimum error in CME parameters from white-light reconstructions: Δθ (latitude)=6° +2° -3° , Δϕ (longitude)=11° +18° -6° , Δγ (tilt)=25° +8° -7° , Δx (half-angle)=10° +12° -6° , Δh (height)=0.6 +1.2 -0.4 R ⨀ , and Δκ (ratio)=0.1 +0.03 -0.02 .

Coronal mass ejections↗

Particle acceleration in the dynamic magnetotail: Orbits in self-consistent three-dimensional MHD fields

The acceleration of protons in a dynamically evolving magnetotail is investigated by tracing particles in the fields obtained from a three-dimensional resistive magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation. The MHD simulation, representing plasmoid formation and ejection through a near-Earth reconnection process, leads to cross-tail electric fields of up to approximately 4 mV/m with integrated voltages across the tail of up to approximately 200 kV. Energization of particles takes place over a wide range along the tail, due to the large spatial extent of the increased electric field together with the finite cross-tail extent of the electric field region. Such accelerated particles appear earthward of the neutral line over a significant portion of the closed field line region inside of the separatrix, not just in the vicinity of the separatrix. Two different acceleration processes are identified: a 'quasi-potential' acceleration, due to particle motion in the direction of the cross-tail electric field, and a 'quasi-betatron' effect, which consists of multiple energy gains from repeated crossings of the acceleration region, mostly on Speiser-type orbits, in the spatially varying induced electric field. The major source region for accelerated particles in the hundreds of keV range is the central plasma sheet at the dawn flank outside the reconnection site. Since this source plasma is already hot and dense, its moderate energization by a factor of approximately 2 may be sufficient to explain the observed increases in the energetic particle fluxes. Particles from the tail are the source of beams at the plasma sheet/lobe boundary. The temporal increase in the energetic particle fluxes, estimated from the increase in energy gain, occurs on a fast timescale of a few minutes, coincident with a strong increase in B(sub z), despite the fact that the inner boundary ('injection boundary') of the distribution of energized particles is fairly smooth.

Birn, Joachim↗

Pedestal collapse by resonant magnetic perturbations

Pedestal collapse (i.e., the complete loss of the edge transport barrier (ETB)) in DIII-D H-mode plasmas occurs when resonant magnetic perturbations (RMPs) penetrate the steep gradient region at the plasma edge. Normally, RMP driven magnetic islands can occur at the top and bottom of the H-mode pedestal and these islands generate conditions consistent with edge-localized-mode (ELM) suppression and density pump-out, respectively, based on nonlinear two-fluid MHD simulations. In contrast, MHD simulations show that the steep pressure gradient region between the top and bottom of the DIII-D pedestal is generally immune to resonant field penetration due to large local E × B and diamagnetic flows. By this fortuitous circumstance, the edge-transport-barrier and H-mode confinement can be maintained while achieving ELM suppression. However, pedestal collapse can occur in DIII-D when the screening flows are inadequate to prevent field penetration in the steep gradient region of the pedestal. Non-linear two-fluid MHD simulations support the role of resonant field penetration in pedestal collapse for DIII-D H-mode plasmas with weak edge E × B and diamagnetic screening flows. ITER will likely have weaker edge screening flows than present experiments due to its much larger size, making it more susceptible to resonant field penetration in the steep gradient region of the pedestal. Analysis of model ITER equilibria demonstrates that resonant field penetration in the steep pressure gradient region is possible for RMP levels of the order required for ELM suppression. The effect of such penetration on the ITER pedestal will depend sensitively on the resulting degree of island overlap.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Global MHD Magnetospheric Simulation of January 10, 1997 Encounter with Magnetic Cloud

We present a global MHD magnetospheric simulation of the encounter of the magnetic cloud with the terrestrial magnetosphere on January 10-11, 1997. The MHD simulation is driven by IMF and solar wind plasma measurements provided by Wind situated about 100 $R_E$ upstream from Earth. Field-aligned currents produced in the model are mapped down to the ionosphere and are directly compared to auroral images from the Polar UVI. Particular attention will be paid to the interval following the the initial shock wave arrival (around 0100 UT on the 1Oth) but preceding the passage of the magnetic cloud proper (commencing at about 0430 UT) for which there was continuous viewing of the entire auroral oval from apogee by Polar. This turbulent period is characterized by numerous dynamic pressure rises and dips and several northward and southward turnings of the IMF, all of which generate dynamic activity in the simulation that is reflected in the mapped field-aligned current patterns. As discussed by Brittnacher et al. in this session, the auroral morphology imaged by UVI during this period includes: shock wave-induced brightening of the oval followed by a pseudo-onset near midnight, several sun-aligned and curled arcs within the polar cap, an expanding polar cap cleared of arcs, and finally substorm onset at 0337 UT. These features will be directly compared to region 1 and 2 current systems as well as cusp currents in the simulation. Spacecraft magnetopause crossings are also predicted by the global simulation and will be compared to observed crossings, including numerous dayside crossings by Geotail on the 1Oth, and geosynchronous crossings early on January 11.

Elsen, R.↗

ISTP Solar Maximum Extended Science Program

We have studied the entry of solar energetic particles (SEPS) into the magnetosphere by following particles in the time dependent magnetic and electric field from global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations of the magnetosphere. The MHD simulations can either be for idealized interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) conditions, or for upstream conditions measured by spacecraft. An important part of the analysis is understanding the response of the magnetosphere to the IMF conditions. In the idealized case, the MHD simulation included a steady interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) B(sub x), velocity and density, while the B(sub y) and B(sub z) components were varied from southward IMF to dawnward and finally to northward IMF. We launched more than ten million protons, as well as about 1 million He-3 ions and a few thousand electrons upstream of the magnetosphere into the solar wind. They were initialized using a kappa distribution, which is a power law distribution with a power law coefficient of 1.5 at high energies. The particles had energies between 0. 1 and 50 MeV. The particles were run in time dependent MHD fields that were advanced in time as the particles moved through the system.

Ashour-Abdalla, Maha↗

Shear-induced instability and arch filament eruption - A magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) numerical simulation

A situation wherein a bipolar magnetic field embedded in a stratified solar atmosphere undergoes symmetrical shear motion at the footpoints is investigated via a 2D (nonplanar) MHD simulation. It was found that the vertical plasma flow velocities grow exponentially, leading to a new type of global MHD instability. The growth rate increases almost linearly until it reaches the same order of magnitude as the Alfven speed. Then a nonlinear MHD instability occurs beyond this point. It was found that the central loops are pinched by opposing Lorentz forces, and the outer closed loops stretch upward with the vertically-rising mass flow. The nonlinear dynamical shearing instability is illustrated by a numerical example that is given for three different values of the plasma beta that span several orders of magnitude.

Wu, S. T.↗

Role of edge-localized neoclassical tearing modes in quiescent H-mode plasmas in the DIII-D tokamak

The edge-harmonic oscillations (EHOs) in standard quiescent H-mode (QH-mode) plasmas in DIII-D are consistent with edge-localized neoclassical tearing modes (NTMs) based on nonlinear two-fluid MHD simulations. Using kinetic equilibria constrained by edge profile measurements, the MHD simulations show that the n = 1 NTM and its harmonics can be destabilized at the pedestal top of QH-mode plasma by the edge bootstrap current. The simulations further show that the unstable NTMs can saturate either at small (<2% ψ N ) or large (>4% ψ N ) island width depending on the magnitude of the edge bootstrap current, where ψ N is the normalized radius in poloidal flux. The onset of the EHO also results in a prompt decrease in the pedestal width and height, consistent with simulation results for the onset of the NTM at the top of the QH-mode pedestal. This suggests that the avoidance of edge-localized modes (ELMs) in QH-mode can be attributed to the enhanced local transport induced by the NTM that is sufficient to prevent the expansion of the pedestal to an unstable width, analogous to the mechanism explored for ELM suppression by resonant magnetic perturbations. Nonlinear MHD simulations scanning the E × B frequency and the ratio of parallel and perpendicular thermal diffusivity (χ | /χ ⊥ ) at the pedestal top show that edge-localized NTMs are destabilized for conditions of high E × B frequency, high pedestal temperature, and low pedestal density, qualitatively consistent with experimental conditions required for observing the EHO.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Computational study of runaway electrons in MST tokamak discharges with applied resonant magnetic perturbation

A numerical study of magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) and tracer-particle evolution investigates the effects of resonant magnetic perturbations (RMPs) on the confinement of runaway electrons (REs) in tokamak discharges conducted in the Madison Symmetric Torus. In computational results of applying RMPs having a broad toroidal spectrum but a single poloidal harmonic, m = 1 RMP does not suppress REs, whereas m = 3 RMP achieves significant deconfinement but not the complete suppression obtained in the experiment. MHD simulations with the NIMROD code produce sawtooth oscillations, and the associated magnetic reconnection can affect the trajectory of REs starting in the core region. Simulations with m = 3 RMP produce chaotic magnetic topology over the outer region, but the m = 1 RMP produces negligible changes in field topology, relative to applying no RMP. Using snapshots of the MHD simulation fields, full-orbit relativistic electron test particle computations with KORC show ≈50% loss from the m = 3 RMP compared to the 10%–15% loss from the m = 1 RMP. Here, test particle computations of the m = 3 RMP in the time-evolving MHD simulation fields show correlation between MHD activity and late-time particle losses, but total electron confinement is similar to computations using magnetic-field snapshots.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗