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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2018

A Visual Atlas on Strategic Trade

Strategic trade concerns global trade flows of items with strategic military value. Items include goods with exclusive military use, but also dual-use items that can have both military and civil uses. Many countries require licenses for trade in strategic items as a measure of non-proliferation. For example, items listed for trade control by multilateral export control arrangements, such as the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), typically are considered strategic goods. Analysts and officials involved in strategic trade control often lack quantitative global understanding of relevant trade patterns that would help them focus control and enforcement efforts, select companies for outreach and audit, target transactions for verification and inspection, and assess the potential economic impact of trade control policies. Many are unaware of available open source data on international trade that can inform these issues. Many do not know how to make use of such data or lack the tools necessary to do so. A book of charts dubbed a ‘Strategic Trade Atlas’ was developed to illustrate global trade flows of strategic goods and raise awareness of the availability and utility of open source trade data. The Atlas was prepared for the World Customs Organization (WCO) and its Member States to support their planning and execution of Strategic Trade Control Enforcement (STCE) operations. It offers macroscopic graphical representations of global trade flows classified under Harmonized System (HS) codes associated by the WCO with commodities described in its STCE Implementation Guide. While these HS codes are understood to also encompass many non-strategic items, they nevertheless provide a good overview of potentially strategic trade flows. These include HS codes covering nuclear and nuclear-related commodities listed by the NSG, such as uranium, heavy water, graphite, carbon fiber, nickel powder, beryllium, aluminum tubes, vacuum pumps, valves, machine tools, cameras, and many others. The Atlas uses trade data from the Base pour l’Analyse du Commerce International (BACI), a statistical elaboration of public UN Comtrade data. BACI data reconciles trade flows, taking into account asymmetries in import and export trade valuation. The data visualization approach facilitates rapid sense making, pattern recognition, and anomaly detection. Country-based profiles summarize vast amounts of data into readily understandable graphical representations of each country’s primary strategic imports and exports and their main trading partners. Commodity-based profiles provide a global view of major exporters, importers, and trade patterns for each commodity. These insights can inform the risk management approach employed by customs to allocate enforcement and compliance efforts.

customs controls↗
DOE OSTI2019

Chapter 22 - Pathways Toward Sustainable Development

Model-based scenario analysis can help in identifying ways to achieve the environmental targets of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and related multilateral environmental agreements (MEAs) (well established). Target-seeking scenarios provide insight into the required level of effort, promising measures, and possible synergies and trade-offs between these measures and a range of targets. The usefulness of scenarios can be illustrated by the successful use of such scenarios in the literature on climate policy. Scenarios can be used to explore different pathways for achieving long-term targets and provide insights into the costs and benefits of these pathways. There are important interrelations (synergies and trade-offs) between the achievement of the various SDGs and related MEAs.. This means that strategies that aim to achieve sets of targets will have to take account for these interrelations. At the moment, scenarios that explore the fulfilment of a large set of SDG targets simultaneously are mostly lacking. An assessment of possible pathways must therefore rely on more narrowly focused scenarios in the literature. This does lead to a higher level of uncertainty and some clear knowledge gaps. {22.2}

Van Vuuren, Detlef↗
DOE OSTI2019

Chapter 21 - Future Developments Without Targeted Policies

Together with other tools, model-based scenario analysis provides a useful method to explore whether environment related targets of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and related Multilateral Environmental Agreements (MEAs) are going to be achieved (well established). Assessing whether current trends are leading to fulfilment of the selected targets outlined in Chapter 20 is complex: it requires insights into the interactions of different trends and systems, inertia and cross-scale relationships. A combination of qualitative storylines and quantitative scenario tools can help to explore possible futures trends, while taking the many complexities into account. While scenarios can never be forecasts, because surprises may occur, they can inform decision makers of the likely implications of current trends. {21.2}

Lucas, Paul↗
DOE OSTI2023

Grid Interconnection and Renewables Deployment Related Air Quality and Human Health Benefits in Southeast Asia

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has increasingly focused on multilateral electricity trade, improved grid resiliency and modernization. These opportunities in the power sector have been studied through the ASEAN Interconnection Masterplan Studies, the most recent of which is the ASEAN Interconnection Masterplan Study III (AIMS III). AIMS III assessed four different scenarios of power system in the ASEAN countries that include a base scenario and three additional scenarios (called optimum RE, ASEAN RE, and High RE) considering different levels of deployment of renewable energy (RE) and cross-border generation and trade of electricity for three years (2025, 2030, 2040). In this work, we quantify the potential air quality and public health co-benefits of AIMS III scenarios. For a rapidly expanding, energy hungry region like SE Asia generation is power generation is expected to increase significantly. The AIMS III scenarios' capacity expansion modeling suggest that: 1) Generation nearly doubles from 2025 to 2040 in all four AIMS III scenarios; 2) Most of the increased generation is met by coal in all four AIMS III scenarios; 3) While renewables generation increases in all four AIMS III scenarios, the fraction of total generation (its share) generally decreases because of the much greater increase in non-renewable sources, mostly coal. Only in the High RE Target scenario do renewables represent a higher share in 2040 than in 2025, though even here it is at the expense of natural gas rather than coal; 4) As a result, emissions of gaseous and aerosol pollutants increase significantly in all scenarios. Because emissions increase in 2040 compared to 2025 for all four AIMS III scenarios, so do PM2.5 concentrations. Even for the High RE Target scenario (the scenario with highest share of renewable energy), compared to the Base scenario in 2025, in 2040 PM2.5 concentrations are higher. Compared to the Base scenario in the same years, the Optimum RE and ASEAN RE Target scenarios do not differ very much from the Base in terms of PM2.5 concentration. The High RE Target scenario, on the other hand, yields noticeably lower PM2.5 concentration. For example, in 2040 the population-weighted decrease in annual average PM2.5 concentration in the High RE Target scenario relative to the Base scenario is 0.5 ug m-3. Compared to the Base scenario in 2040, each of the alternative AIMS III scenarios is estimated to result in net reductions in power-sector air quality-related excess mortality in the ASEAN region. Yet there are a few countries for which the Optimum RE and ASEAN RE Target result in increases in PM2.5-related excess mortality (Thailand and Vietnam for the ASEAN RE Target scenario and Thailand for the Optimum RE scenario). However, for the High RE Target scenario, all countries benefit and find reductions in excess mortality resulting from the power sector scenarios modeled in AIMS III with regionwide mortality decreasing by 16,000 compared to the Base scenario in 2040. In summary, our analysis finds that changing power generation emissions is a crucial lever for improving public health in ASEAN member countries and provides a pathway for policymakers to make decision backed by a realistic power sector expansion and air quality analyses.

air quality↗
DOE OSTI2016

The Joint Convention, Its Global Impact and U.S Continuing Involvement - 16645

The Joint Convention on the Safety of Spent Fuel Management and on the Safety of Radioactive Waste Management (hereafter called the Joint Convention) is an international convention, conducted under the auspices of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). It is one of a suite of international instruments dealing with nuclear safety and physical security, which serve to promote a global culture for the safe use of radioactive materials. Unlike other safety or security conventions, however, the Joint Convention deals exclusively with the end of the nuclear fuel cycle. The Joint Convention focuses on the lessons to be learned from past experience and existing facility operations, which can be implemented in the policies and designs for future operating facilities in the nuclear fuel cycle. The U.S. has participated fully in the review process, as well as setting forth initiatives to sponsor increased ratification. The U.S. holds the current Joint Convention presidency for the Fifth Review Cycle. Because of the important benefits associated with active participation, the U.S. has strongly supported a Regional Conference Initiative outreach program to increase membership. We also provided an expert for each of the conferences to assist in advancing the message to non-Member States, in particular developing nations considering ratification. The Joint Convention process also provides opportunities to identify future areas of bilateral and multilateral technical and regulatory cooperation with other Parties. Furthermore, the Joint Convention is consistent with U.S. foreign policy considerations to support, as a priority, the strengthening of the worldwide safety culture in the use of nuclear energy. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

Techno-Economic Viability of Flexible Dispatch of Unconventional Geothermal Systems

Flexible geothermal operations could boost project returns through the allocation of improved power purchase agreements and/or exploitation of power price arbitrage opportunities. In this study, we investigated the techno-economic feasibility of variable flow rate control and time-of-day pricing in closed-loop geothermal systems. We considered U-shaped multilateral system configurations and modeled a variety of technical system parameters. These designs were simulated using a slender-body theory (SBT) model for transient heat transfer and fluid flow. This subsurface model was integrated into the flexible geothermal economic model (FGEM) tool to evaluate the overall flexible geothermal system techno-economics. Future hourly ambient temperature conditions were based on the Sup3rCC dataset. Published datasets were used for future hourly wholesale electricity prices. We analyzed four operating strategies: 1) baseload operation, 2) seasonal dispatch (high flow rate during summer and nominal flow rate during the rest of the year), 3) net generation maximization by varying flow rate to maximize net power output, and 4) revenue maximization by varying flow rate to maximize revenue. We ran all four scenarios for a multiloop configuration with 12 lateral passes, 7-km vertical depth and 87-km total drilling length. Furthermore, we assumed a 60 degrees C/km geothermal gradient and ambient temperature and wholesale electricity prices for New Mexico as a typical state location. The nominal flow rate was set to 80 kg/s. When considering drilling costs of $1,000/m and a discount rate of 7%, the generation maximization scenario resulted in the lowest levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of ~$150/MWh. When considering project return on investment (ROI), defined as lifetime net income divided by upfront capital costs, all flexible operation scenarios performed better than the base case scenario. The highest ROI of 80% was obtained with the revenue maximization scenario. With drilling costs of $200/m and a discount rate of 5%, the generation maximization scenario resulted in LCOE of $49/MWh.

flexible geothermal↗
DOE OSTI2019

“Defense by other means”: future evolution(s) of cooperative threat reduction

This article discusses likely future contexts of, and options for, global threat-reduction activities to support nonproliferation goals over the next five to ten years. Threat-reduction activities span a continuum from unilateral actions that the United States might take with little cooperation and transparency at one end to cooperative actions associated with negotiated treaties and agreements at the other. This study focuses on cooperative approaches embodied in the Cooperative Threat Reduction (CTR) program, which has been the most visible program reducing the threats posed by weapons of mass destruction for over two decades. Here, we argue that CTR’s evolution can be described in terms of the relationship between the desired US influence on outcomes, the ability to generate a common threat definition, and appetite for collaboration on threat reduction. To that end, this article provides an introduction and overview of CTR initiatives over its twenty-seven-year history and a review of relevant legislation and trends. After introducing and describing the CTR Possible Futures Framework, this article offers five possible options for—and discusses the implications of—CTR’s future evolution.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Predicting GPS Fidelity in Heavily Forested Areas

There is a compelling need to advance the safety of low altitude flight in forested areas. Signal scattering by trees can interfere with GNSS signal reception and can cause navigation loss within and adjacent to woodlands. An estimate of the signal loss vs. foliage depth is needed to quantify navigational degradation by trees at low altitudes. A previous report described a method which attempts to quantify satellite signal degradation caused by foliage by comparing carrier-to-noise ratio (C/N0) to foliage depth along geometric rays cast from the receiver location to the orbital position of GNSS satellites through a 3D matrix of terrain data. A characteristic curve of attenuation vs. foliage depth was found for both L1 and L2 signals at a single forested site. The current study replicates this result at three additional sites, describes refinements to the method, and explores inherent uncertainties that arise from radiofrequency fading and from receiver limitations for weak signals. For the sites surveyed, 60% and 90% of navigational signal is lost at 10m and 20m of foliage depth, respectively. Since this technique uses low-cost hardware and readily available data collection software, it can allow aviators to estimate GNSS position fidelity in flight ranges near trees.

GPS↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Predicting GPS Fidelity in Heavily Forested Areas

There is a compelling need to advance the safety of low altitude flight in forested areas. Signal scattering by trees can interfere with GNSS signal reception and can cause navigation loss within and adjacent to woodlands. An estimate of the signal loss vs. foliage depth is needed to quantify navigational degradation by trees at low altitudes. A previous report described a method which attempts to quantify satellite signal degradation caused by foliage by comparing carrier-to-noise ratio (C/N0) to foliage depth along geometric rays cast from the receiver location to the orbital position of GNSS satellites through a 3D matrix of terrain data. A characteristic curve of attenuation vs. foliage depth was found for both L1 and L2 signals at a single forested site. The current study replicates this result at three additional sites, describes refinements to the method, and explores inherent uncertainties that arise from radiofrequency fading and from receiver limitations for weak signals. For the sites surveyed, 60% and 90% of navigational signal is lost at 10m and 20m of foliage depth, respectively. Since this technique uses low-cost hardware and readily available data collection software, it can allow aviators to estimate GNSS position fidelity in flight ranges near trees.

GPS↗
DOE OSTI2016

South Africa and the 21st Century Power Partnership: Paving the Way to a Clean, Reliable, and Resilient Power System

Established in 2012, the 21CPP South Africa Programme is a global initiative that connects South African stakeholders with an international community of expertise. The overall goal of this program is to support South Africa's power system transformation by accelerating the transition to a reliable, financially robust, and low-carbon power system. 21CPP activities focus on achieving positive outcomes for all participants, especially addressing critical questions and challenges facing system planners, regulators, and operators.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2016

Mexico and the 21st Century Power Partnership: Paving the Way to a Greener, Smarter, More Flexible Grid

The 21st Century Power Partnership's program in Mexico (21CPP Mexico) is one initiative of the Clean Energy Ministerial carried out in cooperation with government and local stakeholders, drawing upon an international community of power system expertise.The overall goal of this program is to support Mexico's power system transformation by accelerating the transition to a reliable, financially robust, and low-carbon system.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

4.2.1.31 Integrated Life Cycle Sustainability Analysis

This project provides the Department of Energy's Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) with strategic decision-support for the evaluation of its R&D portfolio by developing, validating, and applying a coherent methodology and consistent model framework to quantify the net effects of an expanding US bioeconomy. The framework fills an analysis gap previously identified by Peer Review and supports a related milestone in BETO's Multi-Year Program Plan. The framework was scoped with inputs from practitioners in academia, national laboratories, and federal agencies. The model is a top-down, economy-wide framework using a coherent methodology to compute environmental and socio-economic metrics. It is purposefully complementary to existing bottom-up, process-based techno-economic and life cycle assessment BETO tools and uses their data as inputs. Presently, the model covers several commercial and near-commercial biofuel routes and an emerging pathway for plastics upcycling. It covers temporal detail across four time-steps and is currently being expanded with a prospective modeling capability. The model has provided analyses for the Third Triennial Report to Congress (RtC3) on the environmental impacts of the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS2), among others. As part of this project, NREL also provides scientific support to BETO in the International Energy Agency's Technology Collaboration Program on Bioenergy (IEA Bioenergy) Task 45 on Sustainability. Here, NREL evaluates and synthesizes activities that develop, compare, or apply metrics, methods, and tools to quantify sustainability effects of bioeconomy products. NREL also coordinates related national lab involvement and a BETO Working Group on Sustainable Land Management.

bioeconomy↗