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DOE OSTI2024

CO 2 storage site characterization using ensemble-based approaches with deep generative models

Estimating spatially distributed properties such as permeability from available sparse measurements is a great challenge in efficient subsurface CO 2 storage operations. In this paper, a deep generative model that can accurately capture complex subsurface structure is tested with an ensemble-based inversion method for accurate and accelerated characterization of CO 2 storage sites. We chose Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Network with Gradient Penalty (WGAN-GP) for its realistic reservoir property representation and Ensemble Smoother with Multiple Data Assimilation (ES-MDA) for its robust data fitting and uncertainty quantification capability. WGAN-GP are trained to generate high-dimensional permeability fields from a low-dimensional latent space and ES-MDA then updates the latent variables by assimilating available measurements. Several subsurface site characterization examples including Gaussian, channelized, and fractured reservoirs are used to evaluate the accuracy and computational efficiency of the proposed method and the main features of the unknown permeability fields are characterized accurately with reliable uncertainty quantification. Furthermore, the estimation performance is compared with a widely-used variational, i.e., optimization-based, inversion approach, and the proposed approach outperforms the variational inversion method in several benchmark cases. We explain such superior performance by visualizing the objective function in the latent space: because of nonlinear and aggressive dimension reduction via generative modeling, the objective function surface becomes extremely complex while the ensemble approximation can smooth out the multi-modal surface during the minimization. This suggests that the ensemble-based approach works well over the variational approach when combined with deep generative models at the cost of forward model runs unless convergence-ensuring modifications are implemented in the variational inversion.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Plasma production and composition from hypervelocity impacts on solar cell cover glass

Satellites are subjected to detrimental effects from the space environment, including impacts by orbital debris and meteoroids that can cause mechanical or electrical damage. While mechanical damage is well studied, electrical effects resulting from hypervelocity impact (HVI) remain poorly understood. In HVIs, where the projectile speed exceeds the speed of sound in the target material, the impact energy ionizes the material near the surface, creating a plasma that can cause radio frequency emission. This emission is the main source of electrical anomalies in satellites, but the mechanism behind its creation is still unknown. Ground-based experiments have been used to characterize HVI plasma, including the empirical power law relations that describe the impact charge produced as a function of impactor mass and speed. Quantifying these power law relations gives us a better understanding of the species formed in the impact which can eventually lead to plasma evolution models and help us first, understand the mechanism behind radio frequency emission and second, ways to prevent its damage to the satellites. In this paper, we interpret the results of the HVI experiments on solar cell coverglass targets and identify the potential chemical or molecular reactions that form the impact ion species. This is done by looking simultaneously at multiple data sets for different species within the same impact configuration, and using a new technique for quantifying the power law relations for each emitted species. We use time of flight analysis (TOF) to detect the charged particle compositions and determine their initial speeds. The results suggest that the charge production power law is species specific, with different formation mechanisms involved in a single HVI event, some of which are associated with dissociation and some with ionization of a molecule. Furthermore, our results also show that electrons have different power laws that depend on the spacecraft surface charge. TOF measurements of ions from impact events on solar cell cover glass shows the presence of SiO + and SiO – 2 as the dominant species present in plasmas on positively and negatively charged targets, respectively, as well as the formation of FeO + .

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

A study on the creep behavior of alloy 709 using in-situ scanning electron microscopy

In this research, an experimental evaluation of creep properties of Alloy 709 in the temperature range of 750–850 °C was undertaken. Alloy 709 is a novel austenitic stainless steel with 20% Cr and 25% Ni by wt% that was developed for application in structural components of nuclear power plants. Creep rupture tests were conducted in an in-situ heating-loading and Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM) unit equipped with Electron Backscatter Diffraction (EBSD) detector and Energy Dispersive Spectroscopy (EDS). “Real-time” creep damage mechanisms of Alloy 709 at various stresses and temperatures using a flat, un-notched sample with continuously reducing cross-section is studied so that the failure and maximum creep damage occurred at the center of the sample where the in-situ SEM imaging could be focused. Accelerated creep tests at temperatures and stresses above service conditions were performed by employing multiple blocks of constant loads where the loads were increased once the sample attained constant creep rate, indicating a secondary creep regime. This technique ensures multiple data points can be obtained from the same test, saves the time required for an otherwise long-term creep test and usage of SEM. Further, Coincident Site Lattice (CSL) boundary maps were collected as control maps before testing, and the grain boundaries were observed during the creep test to understand the effect of grain boundary character on the creep damage mechanism. Void growth, grain boundary separation, and sliding were found to be the main creep mechanisms whose rate is dependent on stress and temperature. Failure mechanisms studied on the fracture surface using SEM fractography were correlated to the sample surface observations to create complementary information to better understand the underline creep mechanism of Alloy 709.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Implementation of McMurchie–Davidson Algorithm for Gaussian AO Integrals Suited for SIMD Processors

We report an implementation of the McMurchie− Davidson evaluation scheme for 1- and 2-particle Gaussian AO integrals designed for processors with Single Instruction Multiple Data (SIMD) instruction sets. Like in our recent MD implementation for graphical processing units (GPUs) [Asadchev, A.; Valeev, E. F.. J. Chem. Phys. 2024, 160, 244109.], variable-sized batches of shellsets of integrals are evaluated at a time. By optimizing for the floating point instruction throughput rather than minimizing the number of operations, this approach achieves up to 50% of the theoretical hardware peak FP64 performance for many common SIMD-equipped platforms (AVX2, AVX512, NEON), which translates to speedups of up to 30 over the state-of-the-art one-shellset-at-a-time implementation of Obara−Saika-type schemes in Libint for a variety of primitive and contracted integrals. As with our previous work, we rely on the standard C++ programming language such as the std::simd standard library feature to be included in the 2026 ISO C++ standard without any explicit code generation to keep the code base small and portable. The implementation is part of the open source LibintX library freely available at https://github.com/ValeevGroup/libintx.

Basis sets↗

DOE OSTI2021

Joint Bayesian Inference for Near-Surface Explosion Yield and Height-of-Burst

Forensic capabilities to understand chemical and nuclear explosions are greatly aided by an accurate estimate of explosive yield with uncertainty. The relationship between explosive size and geophysical observations of seismic, acoustic, and optical waves can be exploited to provide an estimate of yield. Any near-surface yield estimate is complicated by the surface interaction, so an estimate for the explosion height-of-burst is necessarily included in the relationship. Additionally, the relationship dictates a trade-off between estimates of yield and height-of-burst. Fortunately, the surface interaction for each type of observation is different, which breaks the trade-off, and the inclusion of height-of-burst with multiple data types improves yield estimation. We define simple parametric forward models to relate seismoäcoustoöptic observations from a data set of known explosive yields and height-of-bursts. The parameters of the models and a prediction for the yield and height-of-burst of a new event can then be estimated given new observations via Bayesian inference. We report posterior distribution estimates of the parametric models using a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling technique. These models are then used to predict the yield and height-of-burst of SUGAR, a historical near-surface nuclear explosion, using its reported historical observations. The reported yield of 1.2 ktonne Trinitrotoluene (TNT)-equivalent (Department of Energy, 2015) is within the estimated posterior. Yield uncertainty can be estimated from the spread of the posterior, which is between 0.9 and 2.1 ktonne TNT-equivalent. The posterior for height-of-burst has a wider range between 10 m below and 8 m above ground that includes the true height-of-burst of 1 m.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Seismic Ambient Noise Analyses Reveal Changing Temperature and Water Signals to 10s of Meters Depth in the Critical Zone

The critical zone sustains terrestrial life, but we have few tools to explore it efficiently beyond the first few meters of the subsurface. Using analyses of high-frequency ambient seismic noise from densely spaced seismometers deployed in the forested Shale Hills subcatchment of the Susquehanna Shale Hills Critical Zone Observatory (SSHCZO), we show that temporal changes in seismic velocities at depths from ~1 m to tens of m can be detected. Furthermore, these changes are driven by variations at the land surface. The Moving-Window Cross-Spectral (MWCS) method was employed to measure seismic-velocity changes in coda waves at hourly resolution in 10 different frequency bands. We observed a diurnal signal, a seasonal signal, and a meteorological-event-based signal. These signals were compared to time-series measurements of precipitation, well water levels, soil moisture, soil temperature, air temperature, latent heat flux, and air pressure in the heavily instrumented catchment. Most of the velocity changes can be explained by variations in temperature that result in thermoelastic strains that propagate to depth. But some double minima in seismic velocity time-series observed after large rain events were attributed in part to the effects of water infiltration. These results show that high-frequency ambient noise data may in some locations be used to detect changes in the critical zone from ~1 to ~100 m or greater depth with hourly resolution. But interpretation of such data requires multiple environmental data sets to deconvolve the complex interrelationships among thermoelastic and hydrological effects in the subsurface critical zone.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Estimating the Acute Health Impacts of Fire-Originated PM 2.5 Exposure During the 2017 California Wildfires: Sensitivity to Choices of Inputs

Exposure to wildfire smoke increases the risk of respiratory and cardiovascular hospital admissions. Health impact assessments, used to inform decision-making processes, characterize the health impacts of environmental exposures by combining preexisting epidemiological concentration–response functions (CRFs) with estimates of exposure. These two key inputs influence the magnitude and uncertainty of the health impacts estimated, but for wildfire-related impact assessments the extent of their impact is largely unknown. We first estimated the number of respiratory, cardiovascular, and asthma hospital admissions attributable to fire-originated PM 2.5 exposure in central California during the October 2017 wildfires, using Monte Carlo simulations to quantify uncertainty with respect to the exposure and epidemiological inputs. We next conducted sensitivity analyses, comparing four estimates of fire-originated PM 2.5 and two CRFs, wildfire and nonwildfire specific, to understand their impact on the estimation of excess admissions and sources of uncertainty. We estimate the fires accounted for an excess 240 (95% CI: 114, 404) respiratory, 68 (95% CI: -10, 159) cardiovascular, and 45 (95% CI: 18, 81) asthma hospital admissions, with 56% of admissions occurring in the Bay Area. Although differences between impact assessment methods are not statistically significant, the admissions estimates' magnitude is particularly sensitive to the CRF specified while the uncertainty is most sensitive to estimates of fire-originated PM 2.5 . Not accounting for the exposure surface's uncertainty leads to an underestimation of the uncertainty of the health impacts estimated. Employing context-specific CRFs and using accurate exposure estimates that combine multiple data sets generates more certain estimates of the acute health impacts of wildfires.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Deep Learning for Simultaneous Inference of Hydraulic and Transport Properties

Abstract Identification of a heterogeneous conductivity field and reconstruction of a contaminant release history are key aspects of subsurface remediation. These two goals are achieved by combining model predictions with sparse and noisy hydraulic head and concentration measurements. Solution of this inverse problem is notoriously difficult due to, in part, high dimensionality of the parameter space and high computational cost of repeated forward solves. We use a convolutional adversarial autoencoder (CAAE) to parameterize a heterogeneous non‐Gaussian conductivity field via a low‐dimensional latent representation. A three‐dimensional dense convolutional encoder‐decoder (DenseED) network serves as a forward surrogate of the flow and transport model. The CAAE‐DenseED surrogate is fed into the ensemble smoother with multiple data assimilation (ESMDA) algorithm to sample from the Bayesian posterior distribution of the unknown parameters, forming a CAAE‐DenseED‐ESMDA inversion framework. The resulting CAAE‐DenseED‐ESMDA inversion strategy is used to identify a three‐dimensional contaminant source and conductivity field. A comparison of the inversion results from CAAE‐ESMDA with physical flow and transport simulator and from CAAE‐DenseED‐ESMDA shows that the latter yields accurate reconstruction results at the fraction of the computational cost of the former.

Zhou, Zitong↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Greening Future Elevates Flash Drought Risk in Northern Mid‐to‐High Latitudes

Flash droughts have become a growing concern, as they can emerge rapidly and increase the risk of crop failure. Although past studies have investigated the meteorological drivers and future changes of flash drought, why flash drought is more frequent over humid and vegetated regions remains underexplored. This study delves further into the mechanism by which vegetation regulates flash drought and its future change using observations from multiple data sets and large ensemble simulations from three Earth system models. On an interannual timescale, both observations and simulations show robust increases in flash drought frequency and a higher flash-to-sub-seasonal drought ratio during spring or antecedent conditions with dense vegetation, supporting the important role of vegetation in flash drought occurrence, especially in the northern mid-to-high latitudes. In the latter regions, the large ensemble simulations show robust increases in flash drought (e.g., 67% and 46% increases in Eastern U.S. and North Asia in 2050–2100 relative to 1950–2000 under the high emission scenario), where the growing season is lengthening. Although greening might suggest reduced drought stress, it drives precipitation-soil moisture-evapotranspiration decoupling by increasing evapotranspiration partitioning to transpiration. As transpiration can access deep soil water through the plant root system, its increased portion can weaken the constraints of concurrent precipitation on evapotranspiration, thus accelerating soil moisture depletion under high evaporative demand, driving a slow-to-rapid drought transition. How vegetation regulates flash drought by regulating surface moisture budget is supported by observations and simulations. Although warming supports early planting, agriculture may increasingly be threatened by surging flash drought risk.

Drought↗

DOE OSTI2023

Newly reconstructed Arctic surface air temperatures for 1979–2021 with deep learning method

A precise Arctic surface air temperature (SAT) dataset, that is regularly updated, has more complete spatial and temporal coverage, and is based on instrumental observations, is critically important for timely monitoring and improving understanding of the rapid change in the Arctic climate. In this study, a new monthly gridded Arctic SAT dataset dated back to 1979 was reconstructed with a deep learning method by combining surface air temperatures from multiple data sources. The source data include the observations from land station of GHCN (Global Historical Climatology Network), ICOADS (International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set) over the oceans, drifting ice station of Russian NP (North Pole), and buoys of IABP (International Arctic Buoy Programme). The last two are crucial for improving the representation of the in-situ observed temperatures within the Arctic. The newly reconstructed dataset includes monthly Arctic SAT beginning in 1979 and daily Arctic SAT beginning in 2011. This dataset would represent a new improvement in developing observational temperature datasets and can be used for a variety of applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Modeling the evolution of the US opioid crisis for national policy development

The opioid crisis remains one of the greatest public health challenges in the United States. The crisis is complex, with long delays and feedbacks between policy actions and their effects, which creates a risk of unintended consequences and complicates policy decision-making. We present SOURCE (Simulation of Opioid Use, Response, Consequences, and Effects), an operationally detailed national-level model of the opioid crisis, intended to enhance understanding of the crisis and guide policy decisions. Drawing on multiple data sources, SOURCE replicates how risks of opioid misuse initiation and overdose have evolved over time in response to behavioral and other changes and suggests how those risks may evolve in the future, providing a basis for projecting and analyzing potential policy impacts and solutions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Directional dependence of the event-by-event neutron-γ multiplicity correlations in 252 Cf(sf)

We differentiate the event-by-event n-γ multiplicity data from 252 Cf(sf) with respect to the energies of the emitted particles as well as their relative angles of emission. We determine that neutron emission enhances γ-ray emission around 0:7 and 1:2 MeV, but the only directional alignment was observed for E γ ≤ 0:7 MeV and tended to be parallel and antiparallel to neutrons emitted in the same event. The emission of γ rays at other energies was determined to be nearly isotropic. The presence of the emission and alignment enhancements is explained by positive correlations between neutron emission and quadrupole γ-ray emission along rotational bands in the de-exciting fragments. This observation corroborates the hypothesis of positive correlations between the angular momentum of a fragment and its intrinsic excitation energy. The results of this work are especially relevant in view of the recent theoretical and experimental interest in the generation of angular momentum in fission. Specifically, we have determined an alignment of the fragments angular momenta in a direction perpendicular to the direction of motion. We interpret the lack of n-γ angular correlations for fission fragments near closed shells as a weakening of the alignment process for spherical nuclei. Lastly, we have observed that statistical γ rays are emitted isotropically, indicating that the average angular momentum removed by this radiation is small. These results, and the analysis tools presented in this work, represent a stepping stone for future analysis of n-γ emission correlations and their connection to angular momentum properties.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Secure Federated Learning Across Heterogeneous Cloud and High-Performance Computing Resources: A Case Study on Federated Fine-Tuning of LLaMA 2

Federated learning enables multiple data owners to collaboratively train robust machine learning models without transferring large or sensitive local datasets by only sharing the parameters of the locally trained models. Here, in this article, we elaborate on the design of our Advanced Privacy-Preserving Federated Learning (APPFL) framework, which streamlines end-to-end secure and reliable federated learning experiments across cloud computing facilities and high-performance computing resources by leveraging Globus Compute, a distributed function as a service platform, and Amazon Web Services. We further demonstrate the use case of APPFL in fine-tuning an LLaMA 2 7B model using several cloud resources and supercomputers.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Charge Trap Layer Supercharging for Improved Bit Reliability in 3-D NAND Flash Under Proton Irradiation

Single-event upset (SEU) cross sections are reduced in 176-layer charge trap (CT) 3-D nand devices under proton irradiation when multiple write operations are applied sequentially without the typical erase-before-write. Here, this effect is observed for multiple data patterns and in both single-level cell (SLC) and triple-level cell (TLC) operating modes. SEU cross section calculation methodologies are discussed for highly scaled 3-D devices both with and without the application of rewrites, and potential implications for long-term endurance effects are proposed.

Breeding, Matthew Luel [Sandia National Laboratori↗

DOE OSTI2020

Moisture availability mediates the relationship between terrestrial gross primary production and solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence: Insights from global-scale variations

Effective use of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) to estimate and monitor gross primary production (GPP) in terrestrial ecosystems requires a comprehensive understanding and quantification of the relationship between SIF and GPP. To date, this understanding is incomplete and somewhat controversial in the literature. Here we derived the GPP/SIF ratio from multiple data sources as a diagnostic metric to explore its global-scale patterns of spatial variation and potential climatic dependence. We found that the growing season GPP/SIF ratio varied substantially across global land surfaces, with the highest ratios consistently found in boreal regions. Spatial variation in GPP/SIF was strongly modulated by climate variables. The most striking pattern was a consistent decrease in GPP/SIF from cold-and-wet climates to hot-and-dry climates. We propose that the reduction in GPP/SIF with decreasing moisture availability may be related to stomatal responses to aridity. Furthermore, we show that GPP/SIF can be empirically modeled from climate variables using a machine learning (random forest) framework, which can improve the modeling of ecosystem production and quantify its uncertainty in global terrestrial biosphere models. Finally, our results point to the need for targeted field and experimental studies to better understand the patterns observed and to improve the modeling of the relationship between SIF and GPP over broad scales.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

SEEDling [SWR-20-99]

SEEDling is intended to simplify the merging of multiple data sources prior to importing into the SEED platform. Geographic information about buildings and taxlots is often obtained from various data sources, and the process of synthesizing this information for many buildings across a city can be burdensome for city data managers. SEEDling uses GIS tools to automate and simplify this process, as well as apply criteria for SEED inclusion (ex: sqft > 50k) and assign UBIDs, to create records that can be easily imported into the SEED platform.

Long, Nicholas↗

DOE OSTI2021

DEPRECATED AI-Batt-OS (Autonomous Identification of Battery Life Models - Open Source) [SWR 21-17]

DEPRECATED. This repository was archived by the owner on Jun 30, 2026. It is now read-only. Open source implementation of some of the methods utilized by AI-Batt, a battery lifetime modeling and analysis toolkit provided by the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR). This software demonstrates the use of bi-level optimization and symbolic regression techniques to semi-autonomously identify algebraic models predicting the capacity fade of lithium-ion batteries during calendar aging. Modeling the degradation of batteries is a complex task, due to the difficulty in separating the time-dependent and time-independent factors impacting cell level degradation, across multiple data series with different numbers of measurements and/or data quality. Bi-level optimization enables model parameters to be optimized to either the entire data set or to individual data series, allowing statistical disambiguation of global behaviors (data series independent) and local behaviors (data series dependent). Symbolic regression is used to automatically search for optimal low-dimesional models predicting the variation of locally optimized parameters versus time-independent experimental variables from millions of possible models, resulting in a more accurate and repeatable model identification process than is possible by a manual search. The provided tools also implement cross-validation and bootstrap resampling schemes, empowering statistical model comparison/selection and quantification of model uncertainties. An example script replicates the results from the manuscript "Challenging Practices of Algebraic Battery Life Models through Statistical Validation and Model Identification via Machine-Learning", submitted to ECS. All code is written in MATLAB. Requires the Statistics and Machine Learning Toolbox. Contact Dr. Paul Gasper at Paul.Gasper@nlr.gov for any questions.

Gasper, Paul↗

DOE OSTI2024

Deeplynx Dag Repository

The DeepLynx DAG repository will contain several Airflow DAGs (Directed Acyclic Graphs) which will be used in the context of DeepLynx's deployed Apache Airflow instance. These DAGs will be used for multiple data management tasks for DeepLynx data, including but not limited to: - bringing data from various sources and tools into DeepLynx - managing sequential data workflows, such as running Python scripts on data to perform analysis and returning the results to DeepLynx - performing any necessary transformation or pre-processing on data coming into DeepLynx from external sources or out of DeepLynx to go to external applications

Brownlee, JarenM.↗