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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Climate Nowcasting

The climate is changing so rapidly that climatologies based on historical statistics cannot reliably capture the current risk of extreme weather events hazardous to society. Decision relevant projections of weather extreme probability over the next 10–15 years are needed to enable adaptation and resilience in the face of this evolving risk. Current weather forecasts/predictions and long-term climate projections for decades into the future are inadequate for providing this information to stakeholders that need it, targeting forecast horizons either too short or too far into the future. We argue that a new approach is needed: climate nowcasting. Climate nowcasting would focus on user-inspired extreme metrics over the next 10–15 year time frame, targeting specific impacts and locations down to a local scale, by engaging with stakeholders to understand their needs and provide information in a format relevant for decision making. Importantly, climate nowcasting will not consist of a single approach or data set, involving rather data fusion from different sources of information: simulations, observations and data driven methods, likely through different weights depending on the metric of interest. Predictions must be accompanied by serious engagement with stakeholders facing climate risks, and clearly present uncertainties and limitations of any prediction. Such a vision is very different from how typical climate or weather forecasts are applied today.

Gettelman, Andrew↗
DOE OSTI2020

Least-Cost Pathways for India's Electric Power Sector

The Government of India has a target of deploying 175 GW from renewable energy by 2022 and 40% of electricity capacity from renewable energy by 2030 and has indicated that ambitions for 2030 could be higher. Rapid changes in technology costs and performance could drive further deployment of wind and solar capacity beyond these policy targets. Increased deployment of variable renewable energy (VRE) raises new questions for power system planning regarding the optimal siting of generation capacity, trade-offs between generation and transmission infrastructure, and system flexibility needs. This study aims to evaluate least-cost pathways for India's electric power system over the period 2017-2047. Uniquely, this work considers an expanded planning horizon and range of scenarios not previously analyzed in national planning studies in India. The data collection and model design processes undertaken for this study provides a framework for recurring planning studies. This study finds anticipated changes in electricity demand and component costs can drive a significant shift in India's future electricity supply and how this system will be operated. In the Base scenario, the share of generation from VRE reaches 54% by 2047. Reducing the capital cost of wind has a larger impact on VRE penetration than reducing the capital cost of solar PV or battery storage. In the lowest wind cost scenario (40% capital cost decline by 2047 relative to the Base scenario), the penetration of VRE in the generation mix reaches 722%, exceeding the penetration levels achieved when the cost of battery storage or solar PV are reduced by an even greater 50%. In a future system with high penetrations of RE, capacity additions are driven by the coincidence of demand and RE generation rather than peak demand alone. This study finds the system could have surplus capacity during the peak demand months of July–September because this period corresponds to periods with high wind speeds and more wind generation available to meet peak demand. By contrast, new capacity is needed to meet demand during moderate demand months of October–November when output from wind plants falls more than 75% nationally compared to the previous two months. Finally, the success for gas for electricity production may depend on cost competitiveness rather than fuel availability. Increasing the amount of gas available for electricity production had no significant impact on the capacity or generation mix by 2047, as determined from a scenario that significantly increases fuel availability throughout the planning horizon. In fact, over 80% of new gas fuel available for the power sector remains unused. This suggests the high cost of gas plant operations relative to other technologies may constrain the expansion of gas generation in India more than fuel availability.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

An asymptotically compatible approach for Neumann-type boundary condition on nonlocal problems

In this paper we consider 2D nonlocal diffusion models with a finite nonlocal horizon parameter δ characterizing the range of nonlocal interactions, and consider the treatment of Neumann-like boundary conditions that have proven challenging for discretizations of nonlocal models. We propose a new generalization of classical local Neumann conditions by converting the local flux to a correction term in the nonlocal model, which provides an estimate for the nonlocal interactions of each point with points outside the domain. While existing 2D nonlocal flux boundary conditions have been shown to exhibit at most first order convergence to the local counter part as δ → 0, the proposed Neumann-type boundary formulation recovers the local case as O(δ 2 ) in the L∞(Ω) norm, which is optimal considering the O(δ 2 ) convergence of the nonlocal equation to its local limit away from the boundary. We analyze the application of this new boundary treatment to the nonlocal diffusion problem, and present conditions under which the solution of the nonlocal boundary value problem converges to the solution of the corresponding local Neumann problem as the horizon is reduced. To demonstrate the applicability of this nonlocal flux boundary condition to more complicated scenarios, we extend the approach to less regular domains, numerically verifying that we preserve second-order convergence for non-convex domains with corners. Finally, based on the new formulation for nonlocal boundary condition, we develop an asymptotically compatible meshfree discretization, obtaining a solution to the nonlocal diffusion equation with mixed boundary conditions that converges with O(δ 2 ) convergence.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Solving Hard Problems with AI: Dramatically Accelerating Drug Discovery Through A Unique Public-Private Partnership

Dramatic disruptions in technologies can result in the creation of new markets, the emergence of new paradigms, and the displacement of entrenched approaches and business models. This can be especially pronounced when multiple technologies converge to create something new. Today, artificial intelligence (“AI”) is acting as an accelerant for such technology transformations. Still, the scope and depth of its impact will depend in part on our ability to address challenging problems that are surfacing without solutions. Industries will pursue AI for their corporate missions and to create shareholder value. But the timescales and applications can be incongruent with important public needs and with the longer research horizons required to make real progress. Public-Private partnerships are an important mechanism for tackling these rapidly emerging new, complex, challenging problems. Finally, this paper examines our experience gained by creating a unique public-private partnership to apply AI to one example of a hard problem that is particularly timely today-- dramatically accelerating drug discovery.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Observation of a phase transition within the domain walls of ferromagnetic Co3Sn2S2

Abstract The ferromagnetic phase of Co 3 Sn 2 S 2 is widely considered to be a topological Weyl semimetal, with evidence for momentum-space monopoles of Berry curvature from transport and spectroscopic probes. As the bandstructure is highly sensitive to the magnetic order, attention has focused on anomalies in magnetization, susceptibility and transport measurements that are seen well below the Curie temperature, leading to speculation that a “hidden” phase coexists with ferromagnetism. Here we report spatially-resolved measurements by Kerr effect microscopy that identify this phase. We find that the anomalies coincide with a deep minimum in domain wall (DW) mobility, indicating a crossover between two regimes of DW propagation. We demonstrate that this crossover is a manifestation of a 2D phase transition that occurs within the DW, in which the magnetization texture changes from continuous rotation to unidirectional variation. We propose that the existence of this 2D transition deep within the ferromagnetic state of the bulk is a consequence of a giant quality factor for magnetocrystalline anisotropy unique to this compound. This work broadens the horizon of the conventional binary classification of DWs into Bloch and Néel walls, and suggests new strategies for manipulation of domain walls and their role in electron and spin transport.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Angular correlations of causally-coherent primordial quantum perturbations

In this work, we consider the hypothesis that nonlocal, omnidirectional, causally-coherent quantum entanglement of inflationary horizons may account for some well-known measured anomalies of cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropy on large angular scales. It is shown that causal coherence can lead to less cosmic variance in the large-angle power spectrum C ℓ of primordial curvature perturbations on spherical horizons than predicted by the standard model of locality in effective field theory, and to new symmetries of the angular correlation function C (Θ). Causal considerations are used to construct an approximate analytic model for C (Θ) on angular scales larger than a few degrees. Allowing for uncertainties from the unmeasured intrinsic dipole and from Galactic foreground subtraction, causally-coherent constraints are shown to be consistent with measured CMB correlations on large angular scales. Reduced cosmic variance will enable powerful tests of the hypothesis with better foreground subtraction and higher fidelity measurements on large angular scales.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Clean Energy Transition for Transportation Systems: Modeling Implications

Transportation is currently the least-diversified energy demand sector, with over 90% of energy use coming from petroleum. As a result, transportation recently became the largest source of GHG emissions in the U.S. and mobility needs for passenger and freight are growing rapidly. However, after over a century of petroleum dominance, new disruptive technologies and business models offer a pathway to decarbonize the sector. Transportation is at a turning point. On the horizon lies a future where affordable and abundant renewable electricity can be used to power cost-competitive battery electric vehicles (EVs) and produce energy-dense low-carbon fuels enabling to fully decarbonize transportation systems across all modes. Exploring the clean energy transition for the multitude of different transportation systems requires new analytical modeling and approaches. This talk reviewed current work at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to develop and use innovative tools and analytics approaches to inform the transformation to a sustainable mobility future and the integration of transportation systems with the broader energy sector.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Rolling Optimization of Transmission Network Recovery and Load Restoration Considering Hybrid Wind-Storage System and Cold Load Pickup

A common solution to deal with the stochasticity introduced by fast-ramping wind power integration is to equip wind farms (WFs) with energy storage systems (ESSs) to formulate hybrid WF-ESSs. In addition to leveling off wind power fluctuations during normal operations, a hybrid WF-ESS can be a flexible power source to accumulate the power system restoration. In this paper, we propose a rolling optimization model for transmission network recovery and load restoration considering the contributions of WF-ESSs. The proposed model is formulated as a mixed integer linear programming problem that simultaneously optimizes the amount and location of restorable load blocks as well as the restoration lines. The cold load pickup features of interrupted loads considering the outage duration are modeled in detail. A chance-constrained method is employed to deal with the uncertainty of wind power, and a rolling horizon-based framework is adopted to reduce the influence of forecast error. Case studies are conducted on both New England 39-bus system and part of a provincial power system in China. The results show that the load restoration process can be significantly accelerated by employing the proposed method and contributions of hybrid WF-ESSs to power system restoration are validated.

chance-constrained optimization↗
DOE OSTI2024

Project DarkStar: Vision for LLNL in 2030

DarkStar was a Strategic Initiative (FY2021-FY2024) to investigate applications of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) to scientific problems of complex hydrodynamics, shockwave physics and energetic materials. The research focused on physics and engineering design as a process that can be tremendously accelerated through merging AI with advanced physics simulation on exascale-class platforms, and to experimentally validate this revolutionary new approach through dynamic materials campaigns. A central thread of scientific inquiry was in the application of AI to enable human understanding of how to control hydrodynamic instability (which has impacts to areas such as inertial confinement fusion) via engineering features and time-dependent sources. Motivated by an unfinished line of research started by Dr. Johnny von Neumann, AI-enabled simulation approaches were developed that allowed DarkStar researchers to uncover several ground-breaking discoveries regarding hydrodynamic instability, including how to completely suppress Richtmyer-Meshkov instability (RMI). These S&T discoveries, along with other advances, have shown the way for an entirely new approach to time-dependent problems known as inverse design – the idea that complex systems can be developed directly from a final state that is to be achieved and resolve the initial design via satisfying several constraints simultaneously via AI/ML. Through experimental campaigns conducted across a wide range of facilities in the NNSA complex (the High Explosive Application Facility at LLNL, the Dynamic Compression Sector/Advanced Photon Source at Argonne National Lab, and Special Technologies Laboratory at MSTS) the radical new AI/ML approach to engineering complex material dynamics was verified, establishing a new field of study within the realm of shock physics. As advanced manufacturing capabilities continue to develop, the great importance of inverse design as a means to apply that technology effectively for NNSA missions will feature prominently over this decade. DarkStar has positioned NNSA as a world-leader in this newly emerging cross-disciplinary area of AI methods for advanced physics simulation and pioneered multiple novel approaches that have enabled the broader scientific community. By allowing us to see past the horizon, to 2030 and beyond, DarkStar has illuminated the vast potential of AI/ML to impact a wide range of new national security missions and, consequently, multiple areas of further research have already emerged across the NNSA and DOD complex.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

LCOC (Levelized Cost of Light-Duty EV Charging Calculator)

This code was developed to calculate the levelized cost of light-duty electric vehicle (EV) charging (LCOC) for the paper "Levelized Cost of Charging Electric Vehicles in the United States" by Borlaug et al.(https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2020.05.013). The calculation takes inputs from a variety of publicly available data sources (e.g., utility tariffs from the Utility Rate Database; EV charging station locations from the Alternative Fuels Data Center; energy price forecasts from the Energy Information Administration) and produces the current LCOC, considering when, where, and how light-duty EVs are recharged. In addition, the lifetime fuel cost savings (LFCS) calculation estimates the discounted fuel cost savings for a new battery EV (BEV) or plug-in hybrid EV (PHEV) over a 15-year time horizon using state-level gasoline price and LCOC projections.

Borlaug, Brennan↗
DOE OSTI2025

$H_0$ Without the Sound Horizon (or Supernovae): A 2% Measurement in DESI DR1

The sound horizon scale $r_s$ is a key source of information for early-time $H_0$ measurements, and is therefore a common target of new physics proposed to solve the Hubble tension. We present a sub-2% measurement of the Hubble constant that is independent of this scale, using data from the first data release of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI DR1). Building on previous work, we remove dependency on the sound horizon size using a heuristic rescaling procedure at the power spectrum level. A key innovation is the inclusion of \emph{uncalibrated} (agnostic to $r_s$) post-reconstruction BAO measurements from DESI DR1, as well as using the CMB acoustic scale $θ_*$ as a high-redshift anchor. Uncalibrated type-Ia supernovae are often included as an independent source of $Ω_m$ information; here we demonstrate the robustness of our results by additionally considering two supernova-independent alternative datasets. We find somewhat higher values of $H_0$ relative to our previous work: $69.2^{+1.3}_{-1.4}$, $70.3^{+1.4}_{-1.2}$, and $69.6^{+1.3}_{-1.8}\,{\rm km\,s^{-1}\,Mpc^{-1}}$ respectively when including measurements from i) Planck/ACT CMB lensing $\times$ unWISE galaxies, ii) the DES Year 3 6$\times$2pt analysis, and iii) Planck/ACT CMB lensing + the DES Year 5 supernova analysis. These remarkably consistent constraints achieve better than 2% precision; they are among the most stringent sound horizon-independent measurements from LSS to date, and provide a powerful avenue for probing the origin of the Hubble tension.

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics (astro-ph.C↗
DOE OSTI2025

Fundamental physics opportunities with future ground-based mm/sub-mm VLBI arrays

The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) Collaboration recently published the first images of the supermassive black holes in the cores of the Messier 87 and Milky Way galaxies. These observations have provided a new means to study supermassive black holes and probe physical processes occurring in the strong-field regime. We review the prospects of future observations and theoretical studies of supermassive black hole systems. Current ground-based very-long-baseline interferometry (VLBI) arrays like the EHT and proposed future extensions like the next-generation Event Horizon Telescope will greatly enhance the capabilities of black-hole imaging interferometry. These enhancements will open up several previously inaccessible avenues of investigation, thereby providing important new insights into the properties of supermassive black holes and their environments. This review describes the current state of knowledge for five key science cases, summarising the unique challenges and opportunities for fundamental physics investigations that future mm/sub-mm VLBI developments will enable.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

H 0 without the sound horizon (or supernovae): A 2% measurement in DESI DR1

The sound horizon scale rs is a key source of information for measurements of H 0 from early-time data, and is therefore a common target of new physics proposed to solve the Hubble tension. We present a sub-2% measurement of the Hubble constant that is independent of this scale, using data from the first data release of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI DR1). Building on previous work, we remove dependency on the sound horizon size using a heuristic rescaling procedure at the power spectrum level. A key innovation is the inclusion of uncalibrated (agnostic to r s ) post-reconstruction BAO measurements from DESI DR1, as well as using the CMB acoustic scale θ* as a high-redshift anchor. Uncalibrated type-Ia supernovae are often included as an independent source of Ω m information; here we demonstrate the robustness of our results by additionally considering two supernova-independent alternative datasets. We find somewhat higher values of H 0 relative to our previous work: 69.2 +1.3 -1.4 , 70.3 +1.4 -1.2 , and 69.6 +1.3 -1.8 km s -1 Mpc -1 respectively when including measurements from i) Planck/ACT CMB lensing × unWISE galaxies, ii) the DES Year 3 6×2pt analysis, and iii) Planck/ACT CMB lensing + the DES Year 5 supernova analysis. These remarkably consistent constraints achieve better than 2% precision; they are among the most stringent sound horizon-independent measurements from LSS to date, and provide a powerful avenue for probing the origin of the Hubble tension.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Long-time integration of parametric evolution equations with physics-informed DeepONets

Ordinary and partial differential equations (ODEs/PDEs) play a paramount role in analyzing and simulating complex dynamic processes across all corners of science and engineering. In recent years machine learning tools are aspiring to introduce new effective ways of simulating such equations, however existing approaches are not able to reliably return stable and accurate predictions across long temporal horizons. We aim to address this challenge by introducing an effective framework for learning evolution operators that map random initial conditions to associated ODE/PDE solutions within a short time interval. Such operators can be parametrized by deep neural networks that are trained in an entirely self-supervised manner without requiring one to generate any paired input-output observations. Global long-time predictions across a range of initial conditions can be then obtained by iteratively evaluating the trained model using each prediction as the initial condition for the next evaluation step. Here, this introduces a new approach to temporal domain decomposition that is shown to be effective in performing accurate long-time simulations for a wide range of parametric ODE and PDE systems, from wave propagation, to reaction-diffusion dynamics and stiff chemical kinetics, introducing a new way of rapidly emulating non-equilibrium processes in science and engineering.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Toward Trustworthy Autonomous Science: A Two-Year Community Roadmap

One year ago, the AISLE roadmap argued that autonomous laboratories operated as isolated islands and proposed a grassroots network organized around five critical dimensions. The field has since moved faster than that roadmap anticipated: multi-agent systems have produced experimentally validated hypotheses, self-driving laboratories have grown more interoperable and orchestrated, reasoning-trained and domain foundation models have raised the capability ceiling, and the Genesis Mission has placed autonomous experimentation at the center of U.S. federal science strategy, with industry emerging as a primary actor. Progress has met a sobering counter-current, including a corrected flagship discovery result, benchmarks showing that agents which rival experts on closed-ended questions still complete only a fraction of open-ended research, and fabricated citations surfacing at leading venues. We read this as the defining tension of the field: producing a candidate discovery is no longer the hard part, but verifying it is, and this asymmetry now limits autonomous science more than raw model capability. Accordingly, we update the roadmap around seven dimensions, revisiting the original five and elevating two former cross-cutting concerns, trust, verification, and reproducibility, and safety, security, and governance, to first-class status. We assess the original milestones (M1 through M14) as achieved, partially achieved, reframed, or open, add four new milestones (M15 through M18) for the elevated dimensions, and scope the path forward to a two-year horizon, with the first year concentrating on interfaces, protocol adoption, and the scaffolding of verification, and the second targeting federation, zero-trust coordination, and governance. Throughout, we position the grassroots network as the interoperability fabric that lets national programs, international initiatives, and commercial platforms connect rather than re-silo.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mapping the cosmic gamma-ray horizon: the 1CGH catalogue of Fermi -LAT detections above 10 GeV

ABSTRACT We present the First Cosmic Gamma-ray Horizon (1CGH) catalogue, featuring $\gamma$-ray detections above 10 GeV based on 16 yr of observations with the Fermi Large Area Telescope (Fermi-LAT) satellite. After carefully selecting a sample of blazars and blazar candidates from catalogues in the literature, we performed a binned likelihood analysis and identified 2791 $\gamma$-ray emitters above 10 GeV, at >3$\sigma$ level, including 62 that are new $\gamma$-ray detections. For each source, we estimated the mean energy of the highest energy bin and analysed them in the context of the cosmic gamma-ray horizon. By adopting a reference model for the extragalactic background light (EBL), we identified a subsample of 525 sources where moderate to severe $\gamma$-ray absorption could be detected across the redshift range of 0–3. This work provides the most up-to-date compilation of detections above 10 GeV, along with their redshift information. We condense extensive results from the literature, including reports on observational campaigns dedicated to blazars and $\gamma$-ray sources, thereby delivering an unprecedented review of the redshift information for sources detected above 10 GeV. Additionally, we highlight key 1CGH sources where redshift information remains incomplete, offering guidance for future optical observation campaigns. The 1CGH catalogue aims to track the most significant sources for studying the $\gamma$-ray transparency of the Universe. Furthermore, it provides a targeted subsample where the EBL optical depth, $\tau _{(E,z)}$, can be robustly measured using Fermi-LAT data.

Arsioli, Bruno (ORCID:0000000181666602)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data Science in Chemical Engineering: Applications to Molecular Science

Chemical engineering is being rapidly transformed by the tools of data science. On the horizon, artificial intelligence (AI) applications will impact a huge swath of our work, ranging from the discovery and design of new molecules to operations and manufacturing and many areas in between. Early adoption of data science, machine learning, and early examples of AI in chemical engineering has been rich with examples of molecular data science—the application tools for molecular discovery and property optimization at the atomic scale. Here, we summarize key advances in this nascent subfield while introducing molecular data science for a broad chemical engineering readership. We introduce the field through the concept of a molecular data science life cycle and discuss relevant aspects of five distinct phases of this process: creation of curated data sets, molecular representations, data-driven property prediction, generation of new molecules, and feasibility and synthesizability considerations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Characterizing and Mitigating Intraday Variability: Reconstructing Source Structure in Accreting Black Holes with mm-VLBI

The extraordinary physical resolution afforded by the Event Horizon Telescope has opened a window onto the astrophysical phenomena unfolding on horizon scales in two known black holes, M87* and Sgr A*. However, with this leap in resolution has come a new set of practical complications. Sgr A* exhibits intraday variability that violates the assumptions underlying Earth aperture synthesis, limiting traditional image reconstruction methods to short timescales and data sets with very sparse (u, v) coverage. We present a new set of tools to detect and mitigate this variability. We develop a data-driven, model-agnostic procedure to detect and characterize the spatial structure of intraday variability. This method is calibrated against a large set of mock data sets, producing an empirical estimator of the spatial power spectrum of the brightness fluctuations. We present a novel Bayesian noise modeling algorithm that simultaneously reconstructs an average image and statistical measure of the fluctuations about it using a parameterized form for the excess variance in the complex visibilities not otherwise explained by the statistical errors. These methods are validated using a variety of simulated data, including general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic simulations appropriate for Sgr A* and M87*. We find that the reconstructed source structure and variability are robust to changes in the underlying image model. We apply these methods to the 2017 EHT observations of M87*, finding evidence for variability across the EHT observing campaign. The variability mitigation strategies presented are widely applicable to very long baseline interferometry observations of variable sources generally, for which they provide a data-informed averaging procedure and natural characterization of inter-epoch image consistency.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗