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At least 127 records · Page 7

Low-level microburst wind structure using Doppler radar and PAM data

The Joint Airport Weather Studies (JAWS) observation network used at an airport in Denver, CO consisted of one S-band and two C-band radars, together with 27 Portable Automated Mesonet (PAM) stations. Each of the three microburst case studies observed during the JAWS experiment occurred within the surface PAM network, and these surface data were compared with the radar analyses. It emerges that if microburst vertical motions are to be accurately resolved, the spacing of the surface stations must be considerably less than 4 km.

Kessinger, C.↗

The Second Phase of the Global Land Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE-2): Impact of Land Initialization on Subseasonal Forecasts

The recently-completed second phase of the Global Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE-2) focused on quantifying, for boreal summer, the subseasonal (out to two months) forecast skill for precipitation and air temperature that can be derived from the realistic initialization of land surface states, notably soil moisture. An overview of the multi-institutional numerical experiment is described, along with a determination and characterization of multi-model "consensus" skill. The models show modest but significant land-derived skill in predicting air temperatures out to two months, especially where the rain gauge network is dense. Given that precipitation is the chief driver of soil moisture, and thereby assuming that rain gauge density is a reasonable proxy for the adequacy of the observational network contributing to soil moisture initialization, this result indeed highlights the potential contribution of enhanced observations to prediction. Land-derived precipitation forecast skill is much weaker than that for air temperature. The skill for predicting air temperature, and to some extent precipitation, increases with the magnitude of the initial soil moisture anomaly. GLACE-2 results are examined further to provide insight into the asymmetric impacts of wet and dry soil moisture initialization on skill.

Koster, Randal↗

Changes in the Regional Water Cycle and Their Impact on Societies

ABSTRACT Changes in “blue water”, which is the total supply of fresh water available for human extraction over land, are quite closely related to changes in runoff or equivalently precipitation minus evaporation, . This article examines how climate change‐driven recent past and future changes in the regional water cycle relate to blue water availability and changes in human blue water demand. Although at the largest scales theoretical and numerical model predictions are in broad agreement with observations, at continental scales and below models predict large ranges of possible future and runoff especially at the scale of individual river catchments and for shorter timescale subseasonal floods and droughts. Nevertheless, it is expected that the occurrence and severity of floods will increase and that of droughts may increase, possibly compounded by human‐driven non‐climatic changes such as changes in land use, dam water impoundment, irrigation and extraction of groundwater. Contemporary assessments predict that increases in 21st century human water extraction in many highly‐populated regions are unlikely to be sustainable given projections of future . To reduce uncertainty in future predictions, there is an urgent need to improve modeling of atmospheric, land surface and human processes and how these components are coupled. This should be supported by maintaining the observing network and expanding it to improve measurements of land surface, oceanic and atmospheric variables. This includes the development of satellite observations stable over multiple decades and suitable for building reanalysis datasets appropriate for model evaluation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Terrestrial Water Storage

Terrestrial water storage can be defined as the summation of all water on the land surface and in the subsurface. It includes surface soil moisture, root zone soil moisture, groundwater, snow,ice, water stored in the vegetation, river and lake water. Terrestrial water storage (TWS) changes have been observed by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission since 2002. GRACE has provided an unprecedented view of the terrestrial water storage variations at large scales. Extremes in water storage often are associated with droughts and flooding events because they are driven by the surplus or deficit of water. Few hydrologic observing networks yield sufficient data for comprehensive monitoring of changes in the total amount of water stored in a region. GRACE observations have helped to fill this gap. This book chapter is divided into 4 sections.Section 1 provides an overview of the GRACE mission. Section 2 reviews the terrestrial water storage solutions that are available. Section 3 describes regional to global applications of GRACE for monitoring extremes in the terrestrial water storage, including droughts and flooding events. Conclusions and future directions are reported in Section 4.

Terrestrial Water Storage↗

Non-Spherical Aerosol Phase Functions Derived from MODIS and AERONET Observations

We compare MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) satellite aerosol retrievals of spectral optical thickness and size parameters over ocean with the same quantities derived from AERONET (Aerosol Robotic Network) observations made at island and coastal sites. Over much of the globe, the satellite-derived quantities agree well with the AERONET quantities. However, in regimes dominated by desert dust aerosol, the agreement is less robust. In the dust regimes, the MODIS retrievals show greater spectral dependence and report smaller particle sizes than do the AERONET derivations. We suggest that the reason for this discrepancy is the nonspherical nature of desert dust particles, which the initial MODIS algorithm is not able to handle. Using the discrepancy between MODIS and AERONET derived spectral optical thickness as an asset, instead of a detriment, we reconstruct the aerosol phase functions that the MODIS algorithm would have needed in order to match the AERONET retrievals. No assumptions of particle shape are used in the derivation of these functions and the results are empirical total column, ambient phase functions. We compare the empirically derived phase functions with phase functions calculated from spheres and spheroids, both situations in which assumptions about particle shape must be made. The resulting empirical nonspherical phase functions will be included in future updates of the MODIS algorithm.

Remer, L. A.↗

Development of specifications for surface and subsurface oceanic environmental data

The existing need for synoptic subsurface observations was demonstrated giving special attention to the requirements of meteorology. The current state of synoptic oceanographic observations was assessed; a preliminary design for the Basic Observational Network needed to fulfill the minimum needs of synoptic meteorology and oceanography was presented. There is an existing critical need for such a network in the support of atmospheric modeling and operational meteorological prediction, and through utilization of the regional water mass concept an adequate observational system can be designed which is realistic in terms of cost and effort.

Wolff, P. M.↗

The Effect of Missing Groups in the Calculation of the Solar Irradiance Deficit: Analysis of the Sunspot Areas from the SOON Network

Sunspot areas are one of the most important indices of solar activity. To obtain an extended time series covering multiple solar cycles one must combine data from different observatories after a proper comparison and calibration of the individual data sets. We compare the daily and group values of sunspot areas provided by the different stations from the Solar Optical Observing Network, SOON, which are determined using similar instruments and techniques. We investigate if there are systematic differences among the stations and whether the differences in the daily values can be attributed to missing groups in the records or errors in the measurements. We find significant differences among the stations of the SOON network in terms of sizes (average daily and group values), quality of observations and coverage (considering number of missing groups and data gaps). Our results indicate that calibration factors for daily values can be used with confidence to combine data sets from different stations. However, for some applications which require the location of the sunspot groups the same correction factors should not be used. We estimate the irradiance deficit due to sunspot through the Photometric Sunspot Index and compare the output from similar data sets to quantify the effect of missing groups. We find differences as high as 150 ppm during the maximum of solar cycle. The effect increases for sunspot groups near the center of the disk accounting for about 80% of the observed differences.

Luis Leuzzi↗

Radio structure in the inner 1 arcsecond of NGC 1068

High-resolution VLA and VLBI observations of NGC 1068 at several different wavelengths are reported. These observations provide new information about the triple radio source in the central arcsec (75 pc) of the galaxy. The 21-cm European VLBI Network observations at 0.05-arcsec resolution detect a core of flux density 89 + or - 10 mJy. This core is dominated by a component less than 20 marcsec (1.5 pc) in diameter that has a brightness temperature of about 10 to the 8th K. Two more components may have been detected by the VLBI observations, one on either side of the compact core. At 0.07-arcsec resolution, the 1.3-cm VLA map of the central arcsec of NGC 1068 reveals a C-shaped radio morphology on scales from 10 to 50 pc. A comparison of the relative locations of the three components in the VLA and VLBI maps shows that the compact core in the VLBI map probably should be identified with the central component in the 1.3- and 2-cm VLA maps. If this identification is correct, the central component in the VLA maps is the actual nucleus of the galaxy. The core of the inner triple radio source may contain a significant flat-spectrum component. The presence of a compact core and the evidence for bending strengthen the argument that the inner triple radio source is produced by a mechanism similar to that operating in powerful radio galaxies. For a minimum-energy configuration, magnetic-field strengths of about 1 mG and energy densities of about 100 nerg/cu cm are found for the components of this source.

Ulvestad, James S.↗

ORION S-band data acquisition for S-Y calibration

Error sources in the Operational Radio Interferometry Observing Network (ORION) are addressed. Specifically, the performance of the S-band receiver and the optimum allocation of data volume between S- and X-band observations is studied. It is found that the requirements on the S-band receiver are not very stringent. The system temperature of the ORION S-band receiver has a very small effect on baseline determination accuracy. It is unwise to pay a high cost for an S-band receiver with a low system temperature; a system temperature as high as 240 K is tolerable. Only 20 to 40 percent of data volume is to be allocated to S-band observations for minimum baseline error. The error remains low over a rather wide range of data volume ratio. Hence precise allocation of the 14 pairs of the Mark 3 very long base interferometer data channels between S- and X-band observations is not critical.

Wu, S. C.↗

A Suite of High-Resolution Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Simulations in Support of the OCO-3 Snapshot Area Mapping (SAM) Mode Observation: PSU-WRF, CSU-OLAM and NASA GEOS

Cities and power plants are responsible more than 70% of GHG emissions. The emissions from the subnational localized sources need to be accurately quantified and properly managed in order to achieve the Paris Climate Agreement goals. The accurate estimation of these emission is also crucial for assessing the capacity of natural sinks to uptake the carbon released into the atmosphere that ultimately defines our emission allowance for the 1.5 or 2.0 degree temperature goals. New data collected by the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 3 (OCO-3) Snapshot Area Mapping (SAM) observations should provide a tremendous new opportunity for us to study CO2 emissions from targeted large localized sources, such as cities, power plants and beyond. Since 2018 (prior to the OCO-3 launch), we have studied the observational strategies for the SAM mode observation in order to collect the useful data for estimating CO2 emissions from target sources. To maximize the benefit of the SAM mode observation data for quantifying CO2 emission, it is important to define how to observe the localized sources depending on the local environmental and emission specificities. We employ a suite of state-of-the-art CO2 modeling systems, such as PSU's WRF-CO2, CSU's OLAM and NASA's GEOS models. All of these CO2 modeling systems are prescribedwith the high-resolution fuel CO2 emission estimates from the ODIAC data product to achieve realistic urban CO2 variations. We focus on cities with established ground-based observation networks, such as Los Angeles, Indianapolis, and Paris. We have examined the urban emission signal detectability in response to the influence of local background conditions that can observed by the SAM and biospheric contributions that will be a new challenge for urban emission inverse estimation. Based on the results of our simulation experiments, we plan to propose city-specific observation strategies. Upon the availability of the OCO-3 data, we will attempt to estimate city emissions using inverse models. We also developed synthetic OCO-3 data using NASA's GEOS5 model, which should be useful to assess the utility of the OCO-3 data in combination with data collected by carbon satellites in other orbits, such as NASA's OCO-2 and Japanese GOSAT-1/2. The synthetic data also provide an opportunity to study the errors due to clouds and aerosols, which have been not fully studied in the past.

Oda, Tomohiro↗

Whole Earth Telescope observations of V471 Tauri - The nature of the white dwarf variations

Time-series photometric observations of the binary star V471 Tauri were conducted using the Whole Earth Telescope observing network. The purpose was to determine the mechanism responsible for causing the 555 and 277 s periodic luminosity variations exhibited by the white dwarf in this binary. Previous observers have proposed that either g-mode pulsations or rotation of an accreting magnetic white dwarf could cause the variations, but were unable to decide which was the correct model. The present observations have answered this question. Learning the cause of the white dwarf variations has been possible because of the discovery of a periodic signal at 562 s in the Johnson U-band flux of the binary. By identifying this signal as reprocessed radiation and using its phase to infer the phase of the shorter wavelength radiation which produces it, made it possible to compare the phase of the 555 s U-band variations to the phase of the X-ray variations. It was found that U-band maximum coincides with X-ray minimum. From this result it was concluded that the magnetic rotator model accurately describes the variations observed, but that models involving g-mode pulsations do not.

Clemens, J. C.↗

Effects of the intense solar activity of March/June 1991 observed in the outer heliosphere

The properties of the large-scale global merged interaction region (GMIR) generated by the intense solar events of March and June 1991 are studied using the available solar wind, interplanetary magnetic field, and energetic particle data from the observing network of Pioneer 10 and Voyagers 1 and 2 in the outer heliosphere. At heliocentric distances extending to 55 AU the delayed effects of this enhanced solar activity are observed in the form of large inceases in the solar wind velocity and interplanetary magnetic field and significant decreases in the galactic cosmic ray intensity. For low-energy ions (5-MeV protons) there was a single long-lived event extending over a period of some 6 months. Near the strongest interplanetary disturbances the H and He spectra are best represented by similar exponentials in momentum/nucleon (i.e., particle velocity at these at these energies). Over the rest of the event the characteristic momentum for He, (P(sub 0))(sub He) is generally approximately 0.66 for hydrogen. These spectra and the consistently low H/He ratio (25.3) at 2 MeV/nucleon closely resemble that observed in corrotating interaction regions events. Despite the strong north/south asymmetry in the solar activity, the interplanetary disturbances produced the same net decrease in the galactic cosmic ray intensity of ions greater than 70 MeV at the three widely separated spacecraft when the effects of the long-term recovery are taken into account. A comparison of the relative intensity of MeV ions at these three spacecraft suggest that the most intense solar events occurred on the back side of the Sun in time periods adjacent to the March and June episodes of solar activity. It is argued that this GMIR as a system is responsible for the low-frequency radio emission observed by the Voyager Plasma Wave experiment some 1.46 years after the onset of the March 1991 activity.

Mcdonald, F. B.↗

Eliater: a Python package for estimating outcomes of perturbations in biomolecular networks

We introduce Eliater, a Python package for estimating the effect of perturbation of an upstream molecule on a downstream molecule in a biomolecular network. The estimation takes as input a biomolecular network, observational biomolecular data, and a perturbation of interest, and outputs an estimated quantitative effect of the perturbation. We showcase the functionalities of Eliater in a case study of Escherichia coli transcriptional regulatory network.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Satellite Precipitation and Cloud Experiment (SPACE)

An experiment plan was formulated to support an investigation of the precipitation processes associated with mesoscale systems and the interaction of rain producing cloud complexes with the meso and macro-scale environment. The field program necessary to accomplish the scientific goals is designed to incorporate satellite information (VIS and IR as well as VAS data), special radiosonde and surface observing capabilities, radar observations of storms development, special observations from aircraft and ground based lightning measurements. The observing network comprises rawinsonde stations located in northern Alabama and eastern Tennessee. A high density raingauge network and the MSFC lightning location network also cover the area. Coordination with NASA U2 and ER2 aircraft programs and with the operational requirements of the microburst severe thunderstorm program can assure the most efficient utilization of the observing resources.

Arnold, J. E.↗

Space‐Based Observations for Understanding Changes in the Arctic‐Boreal Zone

A recent, interdisciplinary survey of more than 40 international remote sensing experts reviewed the strengths and limitations of current space-based observational capabilities of the Arctic Boreal Zone (ABZ) and made recommendations for improving upon these current capabilities (Duncan et al., 2019). General recommendations focused on the complementarity of sub-orbital and satellite observations, the need for measurement continuity, and the importance of stakeholder engagement. The development of a comprehensive and robust sub-orbital portion of an ABZ observing network can act to fill some temporal gaps in satellite coverage, provide detail unobtainable from space, and is necessary for validation and interpretation of satellite data. A priority across all types of observations is the continuation, enhancement, and/or creation of long-term, multi-satellite, climate-quality, and self-consistent data records of ABZ components, such as surface temperature, energy fluxes, or sea ice extent and volume, for improved determination of trends. Long-term passive satellite observations currently represent the only feasible option for monitoring change of the ABZ at broad spatial scales required to address pressing science challenges. Active sensors are particularly attractive for the ABZ as they do not depend on reflected sunlight and so join passive microwave sensors in having a significant advantage over passive visible and infrared sensors in the low-light conditions that are typical of the ABZ for several months of the year. Application of consistent retrieval algorithms to multiple data sets, as well as careful characterization of satellite instruments and their temporal evolution, helps to ensure data quality and consistency. Among the needs ranked as “Most Important” are those associated with gaining a process-based understanding of the ABZ carbon cycle and hydrologic cycle (which includes sea level rise) as they have the potential to affect a large portion of Earth’s population.

Remote sensing↗

Summarizing Multiple Aspects of Triple Collocation Analysis in a Single Diagram

With the ongoing expansion of global observation networks, it is expected that we shall routinely analyze records of geophysical variables such as temperature from multiple collocated instruments. Validating datasets in this situation is not a trivial task because every observing system has its own bias and noise. Triple collocation is a general statistical framework to estimate the error characteristics in three or more observational-based datasets. In a triple colocation analysis, several metrics are routinely reported but traditional multiple-panel plots are not the most effective way to display information. A new formula of error variance is derived for connecting the key terms in the triple collocation theory. A diagram based on this formula is devised to facilitate triple collocation analysis of any data from observations, as illustrated using three aerosol optical depth datasets from the recent Aerosol Cloud meTeorology Interactions oVer the western ATlantic Experiment (ACTIVATE). An observational-based skill score is also derived to evaluate the quality of three datasets by taking into account both error variance and correlation coefficient. Several applications are discussed and sample plotting routines are provided.

triple collocation↗

The Impact of Withholding Observations from TOMS or SBUV Instruments on the GEOS Ozone Data Assimilation System

In a data assimilation system (DAS), model forecast atmospheric fields, observations and their respective statistics are combined in an attempt to produce the best estimate of these fields. Ozone observations from two instruments are assimilated in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) ozone DAS: the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) and the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) instrument. The assimilated observations are complementary; TOMS provides a global daily coverage of total column ozone, without profile information, while SBUV measures ozone profiles and total column ozone at nadir only. The purpose of this paper is to examine the performance of the ozone assimilation system in the absence of observations from one of the instruments as it can happen in the event of a failure of an instrument or when there are problems with an instrument for a limited time. Our primary concern is for the performance of the GEOS ozone DAS when it is used in the operational mode to provide near real time analyzed ozone fields in support of instruments on the Terra satellite. In addition, we are planning to produce a longer term ozone record by assimilating historical data. We want to quantify the differences in the assimilated ozone fields that are caused by the changes in the TOMS or SBUV observing network. Our primary interest is in long term and large scale features visible in global statistics of analysis fields, such as differences in the zonal mean of assimilated ozone fields or comparisons with independent observations, While some drifts in assimilated fields occur immediately, after assimilating just one day of different observations, the others develop slowly over several months. Thus, we are also interested in the length of time, which is determined from time series, that is needed for significant changes to take place.

Stajner, Ovanka↗

Large decreases in ionospheric total electron content as a result of thermospheric composition changes during geomagnetic storms

The geomagnetic storms of April 17-21,2002 and May 29-30,2003 caused large decreases in the O/N2 column density ratio in the thermosphere. For these storms, ON2 column density decreases of greater than 50% were observed to extend to mid-to-low latitudes with the FUV sensitive Earth Camera of the Visible Imaging System (VIS) on the Polar spacecraft. Simultaneously in these same regions, the ground-based GPS network observed approximately 80% reductions in the Total Electron Content (TEC) of the ionosphere. The reduction in the Om2 column density ratio is due mainly to increases in the molecular species that have welled-up into the thermosphere from the lower levels of the atmosphere due to auroral heating. The geomagnetic-storm driven increase in molecular densities at typical ionospheric heights rapidly charge exchange with the ambient ionized atoms and subsequently dissociatively recombine with the ionospheric electrons leading to a reduction in the total charge density. The transition boundaries between high and low regions of O/N2 as well as TEC can be tracked in the images and the thermospheric winds can be determined from the motion of the boundaries. The motion of these boundaries during the development of the geomagnetic storm will be discussed.

Sigwarth, J. B.↗