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Data presented in poster is sourced from the Electrochemical Catalyst Sensitivity Analysis Tool. This tool comprises a material balance model with cost estimation to estimate the levelized cost of product for CO production via CO2 electrolysis. A set of sensitivity analyses on key system and financial parameters is included with results so that users can test the impacts of these parameters on LCOP.
Computer-Aided Design/Computer-Aided Manufacturing (CAD/CAM), a highly interactive software, has been implemented on minicomputers at the NASA Langley Research Center. CAD/CAM software integrates many formerly fragmented programs and procedures into one cohesive system; it also includes finite element modeling and analysis, and has been interfaced via a computer network to a relational data base management system and offline plotting devices on mainframe computers. The CAD/CAM software system requires interactive graphics terminals operating at a minimum of 4800 bits/sec transfer rate to a computer. The system is portable and introduces 'interactive graphics', which permits the creation and modification of models interactively. The CAD/CAM system has already produced designs for a large area space platform, a national transonic facility fan blade, and a laminar flow control wind tunnel model. Besides the design/drafting element analysis capability, CAD/CAM provides options to produce an automatic program tooling code to drive a numerically controlled (N/C) machine. Reductions in time for design, engineering, drawing, finite element modeling, and N/C machining will benefit productivity through reduced costs, fewer errors, and a wider range of configuration.
The Aerospace Corporation developed an integrated Business Case Analysis (BCA) model on behalf of the NASA Armstrong Flight Research Center (AFRC). This model evaluated the potential profitability of the Towed Glider Air Launched System (TGALS) concept, under development at AFRC, identifying potential technical, programmatic, and business decisions that could improve its business viability. The model addressed system performance metrics; development, production and operation cost estimates; market size and product service positioning; pricing alternatives; and market share.
This dataset extends the development of the Renewable Energy Potential (reV) model to include geothermal energy, with a specific focus on Hawaii. Provided here are the results of two scenarios that were modeled for geothermal energy in Hawaii: binary enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) at a depth of 2.5 km and hydrothermal binary systems at a depth of 1.5 km. The resource data for both scenarios were derived from Lautze and Haskins (2024) using an exponential method. The PFA probability of heat map was used as a look up table for which temperature gradient to use (Lautze and Haskins, 2024). The dataset provides geospatial and techno-economic details for evaluating geothermal energy potential. It includes spatial coordinates, estimated capacity factors, developable area, resource potential, and annual energy production metrics. Economic details such as levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), site development costs, transmission costs, and fixed-charge rates are also included. The reV model, originally developed for wind and solar energy, incorporates these variables to evaluate deployment constraints related to land use, environmental and cultural factors, and grid integration.
In response to the urgent need to mitigate climate change via net-zero targets, many nations are renewing their interest in clean hydrogen as a net-zero energy carrier. Although clean hydrogen can be directly used in various sectors for deep decarbonization, the relatively low energy density and high production costs have raised doubts as to whether clean hydrogen development is worthwhile. Here, we improve on the GCAM model by including a more comprehensive and detailed representation of clean hydrogen production, distribution, and demand in all sectors of the global economy and simulate 25 scenarios to explore the cost-effectiveness of integrating clean hydrogen into the global energy system. We show that, due to costly technical obstacles, clean hydrogen can only provide 3%–9% of the 2050 global final energy use. Nevertheless, clean hydrogen deployment can reduce overall energy decarbonization costs by 15%–22%, mainly via powering “hard-to-electrify” sectors that would otherwise face high decarbonization expenditures. Our work provides practical references for cost-effective clean hydrogen planning.
Lithium supply chains remain heavily concentrated in hard rock and brine resources, creating significant supply risks. Geothermal brines represent an underutilized alternative, yet commercial progress is hindered by the absence of facility-scale cost assessments. Here, we present a techno-economic analysis of large-scale lithium extraction from Salton Sea geothermal brines, drawing on primary company disclosures, process patents, and brine resource modeling. Caused by varying lithium and impurity concentrations, brine dilution over time, and process configurations (e.g., production via carbonation and conversion vs. electrolysis), we find that large-scale production costs may reach ~10,000 United States dollars per ton, but increase up to 22,000 United States dollars per ton with higher certainty of brine modeling, raising concerns about economic competitiveness to conventional low-cost sources. Finally, a project feasibility-focused scenario analyses shows that leveraging brine pre-treatment by-product sales could lower long-term lithium break-even prices by ~5,000 United States dollars per ton, whereas capital cost optimization of 20% could further reduce lithium break-even prices by 10%.
An economic model was developed that incorporates spatially varying joint yield and price distributions for the multiple crop choices a farmer faces when choosing between conventional and bioenergy crops. The model is developed in Matlab, and has options for no, annual and upfront payment results.
This paper analyzes a recently published model for Lynx Mirror Assembly production duration, to understand the sensitivity of duration to various factors. The factors considered are finite process yield, knowledge of the individual process times and finite server reliability. In all of these cases, closed form estimates are given along with numerical examples. This initial analysis indicates that accurate and precise knowledge of the process times is fundamental to making an accurate prediction of schedule duration. Analysis of the failure of any given server is also explained and can be used as the basis of a rational sparing policy.
The paper describes the multiple process development of low cost processes for manufacture of silicon. A support program includes subtasks for the modeling of reactions and reactors, chemical engineering and solid-state physics studies, and development of impurity concentration measurement procedures. The preliminary economic analyses indicate total product costs ranging from $5.00 to $8.73/kg based on 1000 MT/yr plants. In the studies of impurity effects, a model which considers that degradations of solar cell performance by impurities are primarily due to decreases in base diffusion length was constructed from experimental data.
Local renewable ammonia production using electrolytic hydrogen is an emerging approach to alleviate emissions attributed to synthetic nitrogen fertilizer production while also insulating against fluctuations in fertilizer prices and mitigating transportation costs and emissions. However, replacing ammonia currently produced using fossil fuels will not be immediate. To this end, we develop a supply chain transition model, which first optimizes the design and hourly operation of new renewable ammonia facilities to minimize production costs and then optimizes the annual installation timing, production scale, and location of these new renewable facilities along with ammonia transportation to meet county resolution demands. The objective is to augment and eventually replace conventional ammonia market imports in an economically competitive manner. We performed a case study for Minnesota's ammonia supply chain and found that a full transition to in-state renewable production by 2032 is optimal. This is incentivized by the U.S. federal government's clean hydrogen production credits. This transition results in 99 % reduction in carbon intensity along with stable supply costs below $475 per metric tonne. New renewable production facilities are an order of magnitude smaller than existing conventional plants. They use both wind and solar resources and operate dynamically to minimize expensive battery and hydrogen storage capacities.
Rigorous stakeholder-vetted techno-economic analysis was performed to assess the cost of hydrogen (H 2 ) produced using state-of-the-art Anion Exchange Membrane (AEM) electrolysis. Projected high-volume, untaxed and unsubsidized levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH)1 range from 2020 $\$$1.78 to $\$$3.68/kg H 2 depending on technology year, process design, and electrolyzer project scale, assuming an electricity price of $\$$0.03/kWh and a capacity factor of 97%. The total installed capital cost for an AEM electrolysis plant was estimated from bottom-up stack and process plant cost models. The stack cost model accounts for manufacturing equipment, equipment maintenance, material, tooling, cycle time, yield, labor, utilities and general overhead. The process plant cost model accounts for purchased equipment, installation costs, site preparation, and general overhead costs. For this study, the AEM electrolysis plant is assumed to be a stick-built, greenfield project developed by an engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) firm with electrolysis stacks purchased directly from an electrolysis stack manufacturer. The price of the electrolysis stacks is based on a bottom-up cost assessment with business markup for the electrolysis company fabricator. Methods from the Hydrogen Analysis (H2A) production model, a peer-reviewed national laboratory-developed discounted cash flow (DCF) model, were used to calculate the production LCOH in 2020 $\$$/kg H 2 . The baseline electricity price case ($\$$0.03/kWh) corresponds to average wholesale electricity prices currently possible in U.S. markets with plentiful wind. Similar low-cost electricity pricing is possible from solar Power Purchase Agreements (PPA) although these prices are typically limited by renewable energy capacity factors.
A SAMICS (Solar Array Manufacturing Industry Costing Standards) was formulated as a computer simulation model. Given a proper description of the manufacturing technology as input, this model computes the manufacturing price of solar arrays for a broad range of production levels. This report presents a model for computing these marketing and distribution costs, the end point of the model being the loading dock of the final manufacturer.
The cost-effective and sustainable deployment of hydrogen supply and demand networks, especially in large economic regions like California, can be challenging considering the spatial-temporal availability and variability of the different actors across the network such as production processes, distribution modes, and end-users. In this presentation, we will provide an overview and demonstration of a modeling framework used to assess the environmental, economic, and human health impacts of plausible hydrogen production and supply chain networks in California. Scenarios focus on green hydrogen production pathways using water electrolysis and biomass gasification. End-use applications included in the model are transit, medium and heavy-duty trucking, port authorities, and power and aviation companies that currently consume natural gas, diesel, and aviation fuel for their day-to-day operation. Representative locations for hydrogen production and end-use are based on recent projections of the hydrogen economy in California. All mass and energy flows, as well as estimated emissions, are based on H2A process model designs and projections of technology performance, literature review, and LBNL process, economic and life cycle modeling, and not on company data for the sake of this presentation. Human health impacts are included following methodologies developed for the University of California Irvine HyDeal project. Life cycle phases associated with hydrogen production include feedstock preparation (water and biomass), energy production and consumption (renewable, grid, and combination of renewable and grid electricity), maintenance (chemical utilization in electrolysis and natural gas combustion in gasification), carbon sequestration, hydrogen storage (compression and liquefaction), and distribution (truck and pipeline). We apply the framework utilizing California specific emission factors, financial data, and human health damages and explore the impact of network characteristics on results. Example variations include: the inclusion of policy incentives or not, different representations of the electricity grid and source, electrolysis versus gasification versus combinations of both for production, liquefaction versus compression based on producer capacity cutoffs, transportation truck versus pipeline based on existing infrastructure, and ultimate end use. Comparison of these different scenarios can help inform future projects by demonstrating the trade-offs among environmental, economic, and human health impacts. This model, automated in R, is a starting platform upon which new analysis, modeling capabilities, locations, and emission factors can be rapidly tested and integrated.
Abstract In the interest of continued industrialization of metal additive manufacturing in modern production environments, cost is often referenced as a primary deterrent to new adopters. Conventional economic models for additive systems, processes, and supply chains often focus on specific process applications with little generalizability, or they neglect significant costs associated with production such as machine maintenance and consumable part replacement. Compounding the latter issue are substantial knowledge gaps in consumable part wear characterization for additive and other convergent manufacturing systems. In coaxial blown powder directed energy deposition systems, gas atomized metal powder is wasted during material deposition at a rate that is partly dependent on present wear phenomena in a consumable nozzle housed in the cladding head assembly. The price and lead time required to replace the nozzle incentivizes its reuse even when visibly worn. Often this initiates a process quality decline in the form of underbuilt geometry and internal defects due to losses in powder catchment efficiency. While depositing H13 steel using a hybrid manufacturing machine tool equipped with such a deposition system, a unique partial clog with a bridge-like structure formed at the consumable nozzle exit when supporting argon gas flows failed mid-process. To further understand coaxial multi-phase powder flow in the event of support gas failure, a computational fluid dynamics simulation is tailored to relevant process parameters, H13 powder material profile, and machine operator observations collected after the incident. The resulting differences in powder flow compared to control gas flow parameters is presented and discussed. The powder flowability and performance of the clogged nozzle is then assessed by using an optical profilometer to extract the profile of the clog and recreate the clog geometry within the simulation environment. In past work this simulation has been experimentally validated for a 316L steel powder material profile and used specifically for analyzing powder stream geometry and catchment efficiency. After the initial powder flow characterization, the clog is removed, and the nozzle is reprofiled. After removing the obstructing clog, the newly unobstructed nozzle geometry, the original off the shelf nozzle geometry, and additional nozzle profiles exploring different consumable refurbishment strategies are reevaluated in the simulation. Powder catchment efficiency for all variant nozzle geometries and relevant flow variables are compared and discussed, along with potential mitigation strategies for optimizing powder flowability with worn consumables. This work expands on the known morphology of blown powder obstructions and wear defects present in consumable coaxial nozzles while discussing pragmatic simulation driven responses to unanticipated subsystem failure in hybrid manufacturing machining platforms.
A novel, in-situ, scanning electron microscope (SEM) mechanical testing capability for materials at the microscale which provides experimental validation to a machine learning (ML) toolset for full-field validation of physics-based micromechanics models is being developed by researchers at NASA Glenn Research Center. These are enabling technologies for the integration of multiscale digital twins for materials into system level models which will result in the improved performance, material discovery, reduced production cost and time, rapid characterization, and prognostic structural health monitoring (SHM) for materials and structures for extreme environments in support of NASA space exploration missions. In order to bridge the material structure-to-system gap for digital twins, physics-based models must be experimentally validated at multiple length scales. Seminal microscale experiments, conducted at the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL), were limited to transverse compression of single-layer, unidirectional thermoset polymer matrix composite (PMC) micropillar specimens [1]. The early phases of the current project followed those initial results and setup to reproduce the compression testing of PMC material on the custom-built piezoelectric actuated micromechanical testing rig built by MicroTesting Solutions LLC. In this work, samples of thermoplastic PMC material were first machined into 3 mm cubes, and then further machining and final milling was done using a Focused Ion Beam (FIB). The initial experiment was done on a pillar roughly 20 µm x 20 µm x 40 µm tall. Additional pillars were milled with final sizes ranging from 20 µm x 20 µm x 40 µm tall to 40 µm x 40 µm x 65 µm tall. A speckle pattern for in-situ full-field measurements using Digital Image Correlation (DIC) was applied with platinum, which was coated on the surface, and then the FIB was used to mill away some of the coating to produce an irregular pattern of Pt on the pillar surface. The samples were loaded into the custom testing rig and placed into the SEM and loaded under compression until failure. Images were collected in the SEM during testing. Post-processing of the images was conducted using DIC to obtain full-field displacement and strain measurements elucidating the role of the matrix as well as fiber-fiber interaction at the microscale within the composite subjected to compression loading well into the non-linear regime of the material. Moreover, the evolution of fiber-matrix debonding and matrix cracking is observed in-situ at the microscale. This data, along with images segmented with a newly developed ML toolset [2], was used to create and validate physics-based micromechanics models. An image of the failed micropillar is shown in Figure 1. The techniques developed in the initial compression experiment was tailored to the validation needs of the models and expanded to include different sized samples as well as possibly tension and fatigue.
A Class 1 method for determining whether further development of a new aircraft design is desirable from all viewpoints is presented. For the manufacturer the model gives an estimate of the total cost of research and development from the preliminary design to the first production aircraft. Using Wright's law of production, one can derive the average cost per aircraft produced for a given break-even number. The model will also provide the airline with a good estimate of the direct and indirect operating costs. From the viewpoint of the passenger, the model proposes a tradeoff between ticket price and cruise speed. Finally all of these viewpoints are combined in a Comparative Aircraft Seat-kilometer Economic Index.
This paper provides a brief overview of Design to Cost (DTC). Problems inherent in attempting to estimate costs are discussed, along with techniques and types of models that have been developed to estimate aircraft costs. A set of cost estimating relationships that estimate the total production cost of commercial and military transport aircraft at the systems level is presented and the manner in which these equations might be used effectively in developing initial DTC targets is indicated. The principal point made in this paper is that, by using a disagregated set of equations to estimate transport aircraft costs at the systems level, reasonably accurate preliminary cost estimates may be achieved. These estimates may serve directly as initial DTC targets, or adjustments may be made to the estimates obtained for some of the systems to estimate the production cost impact of alternative designs or manufacturing technologies. The relative ease by which estimates may be made with this model, the flexibility it provides by being disaggregated, and the accuracy of the estimates it provides make it a unique and useful tool in establishing initial DTC targets.
This spreadsheet contains data inputs associated with representations of water (i.e., use, supply, costs) for thermo-electric based production. Values in this spreadsheet have been used to support multiple transmission-related planning studies, using models such as Regional Energy Deployment System Model (ReEDS). More information about associated studies can be found in Miara et al., 2019 (DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.9b03037); Cohen et al., 2022 (DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.119193); and Cohen et al., 2024 (DOI TBD). Within these transmission-related studies, the values present in this spreadsheet are assigned for simulation of both existing units as well as new capacity build-outs. A summary of worksheets' content as well as associated sources are captured below.