Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Systems modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Representing Carbon Dioxide Transport and Storage Network Investments within Power System Planning Models

Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) capture and storage (CCS) is frequently identified as a potential component to achieving a decarbonized power system at least cost; however, power system models frequently lack detailed representation of CO 2 transportation, injection, and storage (CTS) infrastructure. In this paper, we present a novel approach to explicitly represent CO 2 storage potential and CTS infrastructure costs and constraints within a continental-scale power system capacity expansion model. In addition, we evaluate the sensitivity of the results to assumptions about the future costs and performance of CTS components and carbon capture technologies. We find that the quantity of CO 2 captured within the power sector is relatively insensitive to the range of CTS costs explored, suggesting that the cost of CO 2 capture retrofits is a more important driver of CCS implementation than the costs of transportation and storage. Finally, we demonstrate that storage and injection costs account for the predominant share of total costs associated with CTS investment and operation, suggesting that pipeline infrastructure costs have limited influence on the competitiveness of CCS.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Model-Based Systems Engineering Approach for Effective Decision Support of Modern Energy Systems Depicted with Clean Hydrogen Production

A holistic approach to decision-making in modern energy systems is vital due to their increase in complexity and interconnectedness. However, decision makers often rely on narrowly-focused strategies, such as economic assessments, for energy system strategy selection. The approach in this paper helps considers various factors such as economic viability, technological feasibility, environmental impact, and social acceptance. By integrating these diverse elements, decision makers can identify more economically feasible, sustainable, and resilient energy strategies. While existing focused approaches are valuable since they provide clear metrics of a potential solution (e.g., an economic measure of profitability), they do not offer the much needed system-as-a-whole understanding. This lack of understanding often leads to selecting suboptimal or unfeasible solutions, which is often discovered much later in the process when a change may not be possible. This paper presents a novel evaluation framework to support holistic decision-making in energy systems. The framework is based on a systems thinking approach, applied through systems engineering principles and model-based systems engineering tools, coupled with a multicriteria decision analysis approach. The systems engineering approach guides the development of feasible solutions for novel energy systems, and the multicriteria decision analysis is used for a systematic evaluation of available strategies and objective selection of the best solution. The proposed framework enables holistic, multidisciplinary, and objective evaluations of solutions and strategies for energy systems, clearly demonstrates the pros and cons of available options, and supports knowledge collection and retention to be used for a different scenario or context. The framework is demonstrated in case study evaluation solutions for a novel energy system of clean hydrogen generation.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data and scripts associated with a manuscript analyzing ELM-FATES parameter sensitivity under pre-fire and postfire scenarios using machine learning

NOTE: The manuscript associated with this data package is currently in review. The data may be revised based on reviewer feedback. Upon manuscript acceptance, this data package will be updated with the final dataset and additional metadata. This data package is associated with the manuscript “Fire Severity-Dependent Shifts in Vegetation Parameter Sensitivity: A Pre- and Post-Fire Analysis Using ELM-FATES and Explainable AI” submitted to Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems (Zahura et al. 2026). The study examines vegetation physiological parameters controlling pre-fire and post-fire vegetation dynamics. To support this analysis, 73 vegetation parameters in Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) (Fisher et al., 2018) , which is coupled with E3SM (Energy Exascale Earth System Model) land model (ELM, ELM-FATES), were perturbed using a Sobol sequence to generate 1,024 ensemble members for two plant functional types: needleleaf evergreen extratropical trees (NEET) and C3 grass. Simulations were conducted for the pre-fire period (2016) and post-fire period (2018–2023). Burn severity was represented by modifying the Nesterov index in FATES to 75,000, 150,000, and 300,000 for low, moderate, and high severity, respectively. A no-fire scenario was also included. Simulations were performed for 16 grid cells in the American River Watershed across different burn severities and plant functional types. XGBoost (eXtreme Gradient Boosting) models were trained using the parameter ensembles and ELM-FATES-simulated outputs, including leaf area index (LAI), gross primary productivity (GPP), aboveground biomass, vegetation evaporation, transpiration, and soil evaporation. Models were trained separately for each year and burn severity, followed by SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) analysis to identify changes in dominant parameters after fire disturbance. For details on how to navigate data packages generated by this project, see https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/PNNLRiverCorridorSFA/About. The data package contains the ELM-FATES simulation data. The scripts and data related to the analysis will be added later. The inputs and outputs from ELM-FATES are inside the “FATES” folder. “FATES_domain_surface” contains the domain and surface netcdfs that were used to run ELM-FATES in the study area. “FATES_parameters” contains the 1024 ensembles that were generated using Sobol sequence. “FATES_outputs” folder contains ELM-FATES simulated variables. All files are .csv and .nc (NetCDF).

Aboveground biomass↗
DOE OSTI2026

NGEE Arctic Integrated Modeling (IM2): Improved subgrid hillslope hydrologic connectivity

This data product represents the integration of new code capability for arctic tundra hillslope hydrologic processes into the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), through the E3SM Land Model (ELM) component. This code integration is the result of collaborative effort between the NGEE Arctic project and the E3SM project. The current ELM represents water movement primarily through vertical processes, such as precipitation, canopy interception, evaporation, infiltration, and soil water movement. Lateral water movement—such as surface runoff, subsurface flow, and river transport—plays a significant role in the hydrological cycle, especially in regions with varied topography. While E3SM includes a runoff routing component representing water transport in the river network, the lateral transport of water at the subgrid scale within the land model has previously not been taken into account. With the recent development of topographic units within the ELM subgrid data structure, there is an opportunity to simulate hillslope hydrologic connectivity by introducing water transport along topographic gradients. We expect that more realistic representation of hillslope hydrologic processes will lead to improved predictions of both soil water content and river network flows. Lateral transport of water at and near the surface is represented as a sub-grid process in this new code development. Water is tracked as it moves from higher to lower elevations within a gridcell. This capability uses the nested hierarchical sub-grid scheme within ELM to connect water fluxes from sub-grid elements with higher elevation to those with lower elevation. This data record consists of a single document (pdf format) that describes the theoretical basis for the hillslope hydrology processes added to ELM, and describes the modifications made to the ELM code. The Methods section of this metadata record includes a link to the public E3SM code repository where the exact code modifications as integrated in E3SM can be accessed. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

Thornton, Peter E [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000247595158)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Post-fire soil respiration in late growing season (2023 and 2024), Kougarok Fire Complex, Seward Peninsula, Alaska

Field soil respiration data collected in 2023 and 2024 from burned and unburned tussock tundra sites in the Kougarok Fire Complex, near Nome, on the Seward Peninsula of Alaska. Specifically, we measured soil properties and late-growing season CO2 fluxes in patches of unique plant functional types (forbs, shrubs, and graminoids) across two years in tundra recovering from repeated wildfires over the decade. The goal was to identify the main drivers of soil respiration in Arctic tundra underlain by discontinuous permafrost that is recovering from two recent, repeated wildfires that differed in fire age and number of times burned, thereby resulting in different levels of vegetation and subsurface property changes (i.e., successional trajectories). There are five files in *.csv format with one data file and four data description files including data, dictionary, methods, terminology, and file-level metadata. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), is a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic Phase 3 project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

Santos, Fernanda [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000191555623)↗
DOE OSTI2026

NGEE Arctic Integrated Modeling (IM3): Improved snow-vegetation interaction

This data product represents the integration of new code capability for arctic tundra snow-vegetation-terrain interactions into the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), through the E3SM Land Model (ELM) component. This code integration is the result of collaborative effort between the NGEE Arctic project and the E3SM project. The NGEE Arctic project developed a total of six Integrated Modeling (IM) modules informed by observations and experiments. New ELM capability represented by this data product (IM3) falls into three categories: 1) Downscaling from gridcell to topographic unit level when working through the existing coupler bypass code. 2) Four new parameters (taper, stocking, bendresist, and vegshape) have been added to ELM to allow for flexible definition of snow-vegetation interactions. 3) Vegshape and bendresist parameters are used to calculate the fraction of leaf area and/or stem area buried by snow for a given snow depth. This data record consists of a single document (pdf format) that describes the theoretical basis for the snow-vegetation-terrain interactions added to ELM, and describes the modifications made to the ELM code. The Methods section of this metadata record includes a link to the public E3SM code repository where the exact code modifications as integrated in E3SM can be accessed. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

Thornton, Peter E [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000247595158)↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Model for Hybrid Systems for Production Cost Modeling Studies Considering Ancillary Services

This paper introduces a model for simulating hybrid plants participating in energy and ancillary services for bulk power system studies. The model considers a hybrid plant comprised of a renewable energy source, a thermal power unit, a storage unit, fixed power loads, or any combination of these technologies. The model focuses on Production Cost Modeling (PCM) studies under the assumption of centralized dispatch. We present an example case study to illustrate the use of the model in a single-stage production cost model similar to those conducted by planning agencies. We explore the allocation of behind-the-meter ancillary services products and total energy participation to hybrid plant sub-assets and the resulting impacts on the system's ancillary service allocation. The model is implemented and simulated in a unit commitment problem in the RTS test system, which was modified to include a hybrid plant asset.

ancillary services↗
DOE OSTI2025

System Advisor Model (SAM) Improvements for Emerging Solar Thermal Applications

The System Advisor Model (SAM) is an open-source tool developed by NREL to simulate the techno-economic performance of technologies like photovoltaics, solar thermal, wind, and geothermal. NREL has recently completed, active, and planned projects to improve the solar thermal models in SAM and its underlying code base to represent emerging component technologies, systems, and applications. This poster describes new capabilities in the SolarPILOT optical modeling tool, supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO2) power cycles, and solar industrial process heat.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data Assimilation for Robust UQ Within Agent-Based Simulation on HPC Systems

Agent-based simulation provides a powerful tool for in silico system modeling. However, these simulations do not provide built-in methods for uncertainty quantification (UQ). Within these types of models a typical approach to UQ is to run multiple realizations of the model then compute aggregate statistics. This approach is limited due to the compute time required for a solution. When faced with an emerging biothreat, public health decisions need to be made quickly and solutions for integrating near real-time data with analytic tools are needed. We propose an integrated Bayesian UQ framework for agent-based models based on sequential Monte Carlo sampling. Given streaming or static data about the evolution of an emerging pathogen this Bayesian framework provides a distribution over the parameters governing the spread of a disease through a population. These estimates of the spread of a disease may be provided to public health agencies seeking to abate the spread. By coupling agent-based simulations with Bayesian modeling in a data assimilation, our proposed framework provides a powerful tool for modeling dynamical systems in silico. We propose a method which reduces model error and provides a range of realistic possible outcomes. Moreover, our method addresses two primary limitations of ABMs: the lack of UQ and an inability to assimilate data. Our proposed framework combines the flexibility of an agent-based model with UQ provided by the Bayesian paradigm in a workflow which scales well to HPC systems. We provide algorithmic details and results on a simulated outbreak with both static and streaming data.

Spannaus, Adam [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000225213657)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Lidar Measurements and High-Resolution Mesoscale Modeling of Coastally Trapped Disturbances off the Coast of California

Coastally Trapped disturbances (CTDs) are shifts in wind direction from the pre-dominant direction to equatorward to poleward for a period of time. These CTDs occur during the warm season off the California coast and impact coastal weather conditions and planned offshore wind plants. This study assesses the characteristics of CTD events as observed by lidar and other offshore buoys, then evaluates the ability of modeling systems to capture the correct characteristics, leveraging model output from the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) operational modeling system and the NOW-23 (National Offshore Wind) model dataset. CTDs were analyzed for October 2020 and May through to October of 2021, identifying 18 unique CTD events, confirmed by a nearby National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) buoy. The HRRR model captured most of these events, but the NOW-23 model output contained only 12 events. Composites of the wind, temperature, and pressure perturbations pre-, during, and post-event demonstrated the diminishment in wind speed, particularly for the alongshore component. Although the NOW-23 model captured the alongshore wind component and pressure perturbations well, the cross-shore wind component and temperature perturbations varied substantially. When the turbulent kinetic energy deviation and wind shear was positive across all levels pre-event, the NOW-23 modeling system was less likely to capture the CTD event. In contrast, the events that were captured by the model tended to have negative wind shear aloft pre-event.

coastal meteorology↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reducing uncertainty of polar to midlatitude linkages using DOE’s E3SM in a coordinated model-experiment setting

This project brought DOE’s climate modeling effort with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model into the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP), which is part of the sixth and latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, CMIP6. PAMIP examines the causes and consequences of polar amplification, when external forcing results in a larger temperature increase in high latitudes than the global average, in a coordinated set of model experiments with a common modeling protocol. Our teams from UC Irvine and the University of Toronto have designed, carried out, analyzed, and disseminated PAMIP output from the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) and the Community Earth System Model (CESM). PAMIP’s ongoing stream of significant new results have advanced progress in the community’s understanding and led to new outstanding research questions that have motivated further work. PAMIP has led to improved consensus on the atmospheric response to sea ice loss. The important finding is that for a similar sea ice anomaly forcing, the simulated atmospheric response in the troposphere is remarkably consistent among the 16 models’ runs analyzed. The zonal-mean tropospheric response consists of a very robust equatorward shift of the westerly flow in mid-latitudes. However, while the multi-model mean response is robust, it has a weak amplitude relative to internal variability. We identified a weakness in the models (including E3SM) in terms of their response to sea-ice forcing that is related to eddy forcing (or nonlinear dynamical effects) at mid- to high latitudes. In fact, E3SM is an outlier in terms of the models participating, and in that sense, it turned out to be a vital participant model. We found that reductions in energy transport due sea-ice loss and involving dry air only are compensated by increases in moist energy transport from warmer sea surface temperature in midlatitudes. This leads to a large spread in energy transport into the Arctic and is a potential source of spread in Arctic amplification. We identified an important role that climate modes, including tropical modes of variability (El Nino and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO); the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO)) play in the response to sea-ice anomalies, including in ocean coupled experiments. Similarly, we identified and quantified the contribution of sea-ice thickness to the atmospheric response compared to the response to sea-ice extent only. We found that it is important to run large ensembles and even with an ensemble size of 100 simulations the response is largely influenced by internal variability. We demonstrated convincingly that Ural blocking, not sea-ice loss, provides the weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex in fall/early winter and a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation that can last for up to two months. However, sea-ice anomalies can influence the background flow so that the response to Ural blocking is more persistent under low sea-ice conditions in the Barents/Kara Sea than high sea ice Atmospheric model hierarchies that progressively add individual processes have a long history in providing dynamical insight for modeling the atmosphere. Similarly, coupled model hierarchies that progressively add individual ocean processes can provide insights into the workings of the coupled climate system, however such hierarchies have not been available except for a non-dynamical slab ocean model. Because of the missing processes, surface flux corrections must be added to produce a target climate. In this project, we managed to overcome this problem and develop a globally coupled ocean model hierarchy in CESM that can turn on and off the processes of mixed-layer entrainment and Ekman flow. We used the hierarchy to study the impact of Arctic sea-ice loss on the climate system. We find that the effect of mixed-layer entrainment on ocean heat uptake influences the atmospheric circulation by shifting the latitudinal positions of the mid-latitude westerly jet and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). In quadrupled CO 2 experiments, we studied how air-sea coupling affects the response of tropical rainfall under global warming. In order to identify the importance of individual ocean processes, we used the hierarchy of ocean models to separate the effects of seasonal mixed-layer entrainment, wind-driven Ekman flows, and frictional flows. We showed that including Ekman and frictional flows allows our simulation to produce the Pacific Ocean's enhanced equatorial warming pattern and equatorward ITCZ contraction noted in previous climate simulations. We also showed that the frictional flow, which has yet to receive much attention, is as important as the Ekman flow in generating equatorial heat convergence.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Challenges and alternatives to empirical orthogonal functions for earth system data

Empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) applied to gridded Earth system data enables users to diagnose modes of variability with relative ease. Yet, many challenges to interpretation exist such that they must be used with awareness and intention when applied to gridded climate data, especially with large ensembles. Utilizing data from two different Earth system modelling large ensemble frameworks, the Energy Exoscale Earth System Model and the Community Earth System Model, as well as reanalysis data, common EOF pitfalls are summarized and discussed. Challenges include erroneous mode swapping, sign flipping, and the temporal variability of the centers of action. For modes of variability with similar contribution to variance, mode swapping is not uncommon. Sign flipping can occur with almost any mode where the pattern is correct, but the sign is arbitrary. Although the variability of the center of action is not necessarily problematic, it potentially complicates interpretation over multi-century timescales. A wide variety of alternative methods to EOFs exist, but fitness-for-purpose must be evaluated. Additionally, illustrations of alternative methods and examples of proper use are provided. Alternative methods fit into three categories: EOF variants, linear methods, and multilinear methods.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Capturing Historic Reliability Performance Through Graph Databases: A Model Based System Engineering Approach

With the goal of improving the performance and reliability of high dependable technological systems such as nuclear power plants, advanced monitoring and health management systems are employed to inform system engineers on observed degradation processes and anomalous behaviors of assets and components. This information is captured in the form of large amount of data which can be heterogenous in nature (e.g., numeric, textual). Such large data availability poses challenges when system engineers are required to parse and analyze them in order to track historic reliability performance of assets and components. This paper tackles directly this challenge by providing means to organize data in the form of a graph: a knowledge graph. The presented approach distinguish itself from current knowledge graph-based methods by the fact that model-based system engineering (MBSE) models are used to “put data into context”. In particular, MBSE models are used as skeleton of a knowledge graph; numeric and textual data elements, once processed, are associated to MBSE model elements. Thus, a knowledge graph captures both system architecture (though MBSE models) and health/performance data. Such feature opens the door to new data analytics methods designed to identify causal relations between observed phenomena.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Education for PV Modeling Professionals: Observations from the 2025 PVPMC Workshop

We surveyed professionals in the photovoltaic industry to understand interests in education and training for performance modeling of solar power systems. We found that most professionals are self-taught and rely on a variety of public sources of technical materials. Available formal education, such as courses or certification programs, either lacks detail or is focused on software user training. Responses indicate several opportunities to create public resources that would benefit professional learning for solar power system modeling: • Create a glossary of terms and common variable names. • Develop guidance on uncertainty analysis in the context of solar power systems modeling. • Assemble a catalog of available educational materials and data sources.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data Files for Runoff Evaluation in an Earth System Land Model for Permafrost Regions

Modeling of hydrological runoff is essential for accurately capturing spatiotemporal feedbacks within the land–atmosphere system, particularly in sensitive regions such as permafrost landscapes. However, substantial uncertainties persist in the terrestrial runoff parameterization schemes used in Earth system and land surface models. This is particularly true in permafrost regions, where landscape heterogeneity is high and reliable observational data are scarce.This data set includes all files that were produced and applied in the paper Runoff Evaluation in an Earth System Land Model for Permafrost Regions [Xiang et al. in review]. The paper is in review as of July 1 2025 in Geoscientific Model Development (GMD). In this study, we evaluate the performance of runoff parameterization schemes in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM). Our proposed framework leverages simulation results from the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), which is a physics-rich integrated surface/subsurface hydrologic model that has been successfully evaluated previously in Arctic tundra regions. We used ATS to simulate runoff from 22 representative hillslopes in the Sagavanirktok River basin, located on the North Slope of Alaska, then compared the output with ELM’s parameterized representation of total runoff. This dataset contains 2 figure image files (*.png, *jpg) that describe the study site and methods, as well as folders (Figure*.zip) that contain the associated data files (*.csv, *.dat) and python code notebooks (*.ipynb) for figures 3-7 in the paper. Jupyter notebook (*.ipynb) files that produce the figure files using the associated data files will run within a python environment configured with Jupyter Lab or Notebook packages.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessment of the impacts of renewable energy variability in long-term decarbonization strategies

To meet the nationally determined contributions proposed by the countries that signed the Paris Agreement, investments must be made in renewable generation technologies such as solar and wind. However, due to their high variability, these technologies pose challenges in terms of meeting demand or generating excess electricity. For this reason, energy system models are designed to capture this variability by considering flexibility technologies. Nevertheless, it is important to note that some energy system models lack integration with other sectors. Therefore, integrated assessment models have been employed to evaluate mitigation strategies, as they endogenously consider the linkages between energy and non-energy sectors. In addition, due to their complexity, these models do not account for the variability of renewable resources. Hence, this research aims to address this issue. Here, this work represents the first attempt to evaluate how the introduction of hourly resolution affects the outcomes of integrated assessment models, specifically focusing on the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM). We employ a soft-linking approach between the GCAM and the Highway to Renewable Energy Systems model (H2RES, an hourly level energy system model) to accomplish this. The proposed approach is tested using Chile’s Nationally Determined Contributions under different hydrological profiles in the power sector. The results show that it is possible to use the capacity obtained from the Global Change Analysis Model and implement it on an hourly scale. However, the feasibility of implementation depends on high levels of flexibility technologies, such as battery energy storage. When given the choice of investments in renewable sources and flexible technologies, the optimal dispatch of the H2RES model show small differences than those obtained by GCAM-Chile. H2RES differs from GCAM-Chile in approximately 5% for wind and 3% for solar electricity generation in the year 2050. However, feasible integration of significant renewable sources is obtained with relatively high Critical Excess Electricity Production levels, reaching 20% in 2050. This excess electricity is attributed to the necessity for flexible technologies to manage the intermittency of renewables sources when hourly profiles of such sources are considered.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Runoff evaluation in an Earth System Land Model for permafrost regions in Alaska

Modeling of hydrological runoff is essential for accurately capturing spatiotemporal feedbacks within the land–atmosphere system, particularly in sensitive regions such as permafrost landscapes. However, substantial uncertainties persist in the terrestrial runoff parameterization schemes used in Earth system and land surface models. This is particularly true in permafrost regions, where landscape heterogeneity is high and reliable observational data are scarce. In this study, we evaluate the performance of runoff parameterization schemes in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM). Our proposed framework leverages simulation results from the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), which is a physics-based integrated surface/subsurface hydrologic model that has been successfully evaluated previously in Arctic tundra regions. We used ATS to simulate runoff from 22 representative hillslopes in the Sagavanirktok River basin, located on the North Slope of Alaska, then compared the output with ELM's parameterized representation of total runoff. Results show that (1) ELM's total runoff was the same order of magnitude as the ATS simulations, and both models were similarly variable over time; (2) minor adjustments to coefficients in ELM's runoff parameterization improved the match between the ATS simulation and ELM's parameterized representation of annual and seasonal total runoff; (3) overall, runoff responses in ATS and ELM are more similar in flat hillslope environments compared to steep hillslopes; and (4) shallower active layer thicknesses and higher precipitation simulations resulted in lower correlations between the two models due to greater total runoff. By incorporating the optimized runoff coefficients from the Sagavanirktok River basin into ELM, the simulated total runoff better matched the streamflow observations at a small watershed located on the Seward Peninsula of Alaska. Our findings revealed important insights into the effectiveness of runoff parameterizations in land surface models and pathways for improving runoff coefficients in typical Arctic regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗