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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7

EV Shuttle Bus Pilot

The EV Shuttle Bus Pilot dataset contains data and analysis from Hocking-Athens-Perry Community Action's demonstration of an electric bus on routes of their rural Athens Public Transit system. The vehicle used in the demonstration was a Ford E-450 cutaway equipped with an electric drivetrain, a 127-kWh battery system by Motiv Power Systems, and a cabin upfit by Turtle Top. Data gathered include route assignments, running time and distance, fuel economy, and charge cycles. A comparison of the vehicle's observed duty cycle with duty cycle modeling from other rural transit fleets in the National Transit Database is included to help better understand the rural adoption potential for this fleet technology.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Probabilistic impact of electricity tariffs on distribution grids considering adoption of solar and storage technologies

This study models the role of electricity tariffs on the long-term adoption of photovoltaic and storage technologies as well as the consequent impact on the distribution grid. An adoption model that captures the economic rationality of tariff-driven investments and considers the stochastic nature of individual consumers’ decisions is proposed. This model is then combined with a probabilistic load flow to evaluate the long-term impacts of the adoption on the voltage profiles of the distribution grid. To illustrate the methodology, different components of the electricity tariffs, including solar compensation mechanisms and time differentiation of Time-of-Use (ToU) rates, are evaluated, using a case study involving a section of a medium-voltage network with 118 nodes.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Increasing the Number of Installed Residential Heat Pump Water Heaters in the USA Through Improved Technology and Utility Programs

Heat pump water heaters (HPWHs) offer an efficient alternative to electric resistance water heaters, but they suffer from limited market penetration. This paper reviews the current state of HPWHs in the USA, focusing on technology developments and programs to increase adoption. What technological improvements are needed to make HPWHs a good fit in more homes? Additionally, what are the best ways of promoting HPWHs to consumers? Improved communication and controls will allow HPWHs to provide demand response and follow dynamic utility rates. To enable fuel-switching, HPWHs are being developed that only need a standard 120V outlet. Split HPWHs can alleviate the cooling and noise that limit the use of HPWHs in small homes, multifamily buildings, and cold climates. Additionally, new utility programs aim to train installers and provide incentives to distributors to increase the number of HPWHs installed. Some utilities offer novel incentive programs that have led to increased customer uptake. Those advances, coupled with improved controls for load shifting and new products such as split HPWHs and HPWHs that can run on 120V power, may finally move the market forward.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A Framework for Identifying Building Energy Models of Localized Utility Service Areas Using Smart Meter Data

Bottom-up load modeling of buildings offers a versatile approach to simulating baseline demand and scenarios of future technology evolution and adoption at the individual building level. This capability is essential to understanding how future load shapes may change with the adoption of electric equipment and vehicles, particularly as it relates to grid planning and infrastructure investments. Traditionally, grid planning techniques have used historical load data to predict future load and infrastructure needs. However, with the anticipated rise in adoption of electrification technologies such as heat pumps and electric vehicles, historical data become less reliable predictors of the future. By employing ResStock, a high-fidelity building stock modeling tool, we can fine-tune electrification scenarios and aggregate models to represent varying geographic resolutions of the grid system, while considering the underlying features of homes. This may enable a more accurate and responsive approach to anticipate and plan for the evolving landscape of energy demands. We present a new framework that leverages building stock energy modeling to identify building models that align with the load shapes and housing attributes of buildings with AMI data. This approach applies two model layers: (1) a classification step that identifies the presence of air conditioning, electric heating, and electric water heating, and (2) an optimization routine that identifies building energy models aligning with load profile data from advanced metering infrastructure meters. This report demonstrates one approach to deploying this framework, and presents results for three test cases that use both modeled and AMI data to assess performance. For a test case using AMI data in Fort Collins, Colorado, we observed a median monthly electricity load CV-RMSE of 16.6%, and a top ten daily heating and cooling median absolute percent error of 7.7% and 8.3%, respectively. For each AMI meter, we identify a set of potential energy models so that downstream use-cases can account for uncertainty driven by variability of baseline technologies and occupant behavior, which impact the response to electrification and energy efficiency scenarios. Our results indicate that ResStock has potential as a scalable solution for modeling residential energy demand at local grid resolutions. Its performance depends on location-specific factors, underlying building characteristics, and the level of aggregation, offering a path towards more precise and adaptive distribution grid planning for the evolving energy landscape.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A Novel Approach for Bounding the Stress Experienced by the Core of Utility-Scale Printed Circuit Heat Exchangers Under Thermohydraulic Loads

Printed circuit heat exchangers (PCHEs) have rapidly gained popularity since being introduced nearly three decades ago, and they are currently widely deployed in the petrochemical and aviation industry. Their compactness, thermohydraulic efficiency, inherent suitability for high temperature/pressure fluids containment, and demonstrated durability are some of the reasons the nuclear industry is seeking to adopt this technology as well. However, the relatively strict nuclear-related regulatory design code, especially when classified as critical to the safety of the reactors, is posing challenges to adopting the technology. From stress analysis point of view, one undesirable feature of PCHEs is their geometrical complexity, which is implied by their multilength-scale features. As a result, a full-scale model of a utility-scale exchanger cannot simply be solved on a computer because meshing such components results in a vast number of degrees-of-freedom. Here, this work seeks to address the challenge of stress analyses to PCHEs by presenting a method to simplify the geometry of PCHE designs. The models proposed by this work can be practically analyzed on a standard computer and provide a path for implementing ASME design rules. The analyses presented herein are divided into five separate investigations. Each is carried out to incrementally simplify the analyzed model by addressing features such as the shapes of the flow passages, the complex distribution of stress in large components, the three-dimensionality of the stress and strain, the thermal stresses caused by thermohydraulic operation observed experimentally and more.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Risks to the DOW Mission From Global Advanced Energy Adoption

Advanced energy technologies have the potential to enhance energy security and resilience; however, they can introduce new vulnerabilities even as they mitigate existing ones. This dichotomy highlights that both action and inaction carry strategic risks in a contested and logistically complex operating environment. Regardless of U.S. civilian or military adoption of such technologies, key allies and adversaries are on adoption paths that will impact the U.S. military at the tactical, operational, and strategic level. The global adoption of advanced energy technologies presents the potential for both positive and negative consequences for U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) missions in the next 10-20 years. Three categories of risk drivers are presented in this analysis: infrastructure-related, adoption-related, and response-related. Each risk type can generate consequences for DOD, including power disruptions, suboptimal DOD mission performance and operational effectiveness, higher costs and shortages for both legacy and advanced energy technologies, and loss of U.S. influence and strategic deterrent value. Specific impacts could include tactical impacts, operational impacts, and strategic impacts. Mitigation strategies could include energy resource and technology planning, cybersecurity, supply chain resilience, workforce development, exercises and simulations, investments in commercialized technology, operational testing and pilot programs, research into emerging technologies, partnerships and working groups, common standards, budget planning, and repurposing infrastructure.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

The role of geography in the complex diffusion of innovations

The urban–rural divide is increasing in modern societies calling for geographical extensions of social influence modelling. Improved understanding of innovation diffusion across locations and through social connections can provide us with new insights into the spread of information, technological progress and economic development. In this work, we analyze the spatial adoption dynamics of iWiW, an Online Social Network (OSN) in Hungary and uncover empirical features about the spatial adoption in social networks. During its entire life cycle from 2002 to 2012, iWiW reached up to 300 million friendship ties of 3 million users. We find that the number of adopters as a function of town population follows a scaling law that reveals a strongly concentrated early adoption in large towns and a less concentrated late adoption. We also discover a strengthening distance decay of spread over the life-cycle indicating high fraction of distant diffusion in early stages but the dominance of local diffusion in late stages. The spreading process is modelled within the Bass diffusion framework that enables us to compare the differential equation version with an agent-based version of the model run on the empirical network. Although both model versions can capture the macro trend of adoption, they have limited capacity to describe the observed trends of urban scaling and distance decay. We find, however that incorporating adoption thresholds, defined by the fraction of social connections that adopt a technology before the individual adopts, improves the network model fit to the urban scaling of early adopters. Controlling for the threshold distribution enables us to eliminate the bias induced by local network structure on predicting local adoption peaks. Finally, we show that geographical features such as distance from the innovation origin and town size influence prediction of adoption peak at local scales in all model specifications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Cross-sectoral impact of emerging technologies on U.S. manufacturing resilience and competitiveness

Introducing new technologies in one energy-intensive industry can affect how other industries operate and stay resilient, yet these cross-sector interactions are often underappreciated in conventional technology roadmaps. In practice, industrial systems do not evolve in isolation. They are linked through shared upstream and downstream dependencies, such as electricity and fuel supply, critical materials, transportation networks, and enabling infrastructure. As a result, large-scale technology deployment in one sector can reshape resource availability, infrastructure demand, and operational risk in others. These interdependencies mean that technology deployment decisions in one sector can create unintended bottlenecks or cascading benefits in others. Here, this article argues that a cross-sector, system-of-systems perspective is essential for evaluating and scaling emerging technologies in energy-intensive industries. By framing industrial transformation as an interconnected systems challenge rather than a set of isolated sectoral decisions, the study highlights how interdependence shapes technology feasibility, adoption pathways, and resilience outcomes. The article illustrates how cross-sector linkages can amplify both risks and benefits, and it emphasizes the importance of integrated planning approaches that account for shared dependencies, cascading impacts, and co-optimization opportunities. Adopting this broader perspective can support more robust technology roadmaps, improve strategic coordination across industries, and strengthen the long-term resilience of the industrial sector as a whole.

Nain, Preeti [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL)↗

WholeTraveler Anonymized Data Phase 1

Phase 1 of the WholeTraveler Study data collection consisted of an online-only survey. This survey captured data on three categories of observable variation in the population relevant to transportation decisions. First, the survey collected traditional demographic data such as age, gender, income, and education level. Second, it collected data across personality, psychological, and preference categories. This included: 1. The "Big Five" inventory personality traits: openness to new experience, conscientiousness, extroversion, agreeableness, and neuroticism; 2. Risk and time preferences; and 3. Environmental preferences. Third, the survey collected data on historical behavior patterns including: 1. Adoption of (as well as interest in) new technologies or innovations (e.g., smartphones, PEVs, solar panels, adaptive cruise control [ACC]); 2. Car ownership history and current car ownership status; 3. Recent mode use across different time scales (e.g., previous week, previous month, previous year); and 4. Timing of major life events such as starting a family as well as overall lifecycle trajectory patterns. Data from Phase 1 and Phase 2 are linked by a unique respondent identifier. Anonymized versions of the Phase 1 and Phase 2 data are both available on Livewire.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

The Geothermal Entrepreneurship Organization (GEO) Accelerating Technology Transfer, Testing and Adoption of Cutting-edge Extreme Environment Drilling

The Geothermal Entrepreneurship Organization launched in 2019 with the goal of building a geothermal innovation ecosystem at the University of Texas at Austin (UT Austin), and in the State of Texas at large. The theses underlying the work of GEO were 1) that with targeted advocacy, recruitment, organization, and coalition building, research institutions with legacy excellence in petroleum and geosystems engineering could become engines of geothermal innovation, research and development; 2) that startups were the appropriate vehicle to speed these innovations from the lab into the field, and building a geothermal startup ecosystem in Texas would not only advance next generation geothermal concepts into the field, but also help spur oil and gas engagement in the space, and 3) that with targeted engagement, education, and recruitment across stakeholders in the oil and gas industry and the State of Texas generally, the oil and gas industry, and other legacy oil and gas entities in the State could become sources of large scale deployment of geothermal energy. The overall goal was to create a ‘snowball’ effect, where targeted impactful actions would catalyze self-sustaining, organic growth of a new geothermal ecosystem in the State of Texas. That goal was achieved through GEO’s work. To test its theses, GEO began work by interviewing and recruiting UT Austin faculty and alumni into geothermal. At the beginning of the GEO project, there was no geothermal activity ongoing within the UT Austin Petroleum and Geosystems Engineering Department, the Bureau of Economic Geology, or the Jackson School of Geoscience, and many faculty approached had not before considered how their skillsets might apply in the space. By the end of the project period, three major research consortia focused on geothermal were launched as a result of GEO’s work, one at the Bureau of Economic Geology, one within the Petroleum and Geosystems Engineering Department, and another organized by GEO across six research institutions across the State of Texas, called the Texas Geothermal Institute. Geothermal curricula was launched at UT Austin, and UT Austin began attracting new geothermal enthusiasts into its faculty, including Dr. Silviu Livescu, former Chief Scientist of Baker Hughes. Startups recruited and mentored by GEO launched, raised funding, and deployed (or are currently deploying) their concepts in the field. By the end of the project period, the GEO concept expanded to faculty beyond UT Austin to other institutions, like Texas A&M, the University of Houston, and Rice University, and geothermal engagement began at those institutions as well. Multiple faculty members and alumni across these institutions launched geothermal startup companies, launched geothermal research consortia, and/or began teaching geothermal courses. In 2020, GEO launched what was to become the largest geothermal conference in the world by its second year, ‘PIVOT – From Hydrocarbons to Heat’, and the resulting momentum catalyzed the Society of Petroleum Engineers to launch a geothermal technical section, drove more startups to launch out of the ecosystem, and drove actors in the State of Texas, NGOs, and stakeholders globally to become engaged. Riding this momentum, the Texas Geothermal Energy Alliance was launched, the first ever industry association dedicated to advancing geothermal energy in the State of Texas. The Texas geothermal ecosystem after only two years of building and support is now robust, quickly growing, and self-sustaining. By 2021, the Texas geothermal ecosystem had attracted the attention of philanthropists, funding entities, media, and influencers outside of Texas, and GEO’s executive director was invited to give a TED talk about oil and gas engagement in building the future of geothermal energy, which elevated the success of the ecosystem to a global audience.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

An Analysis of Extended Reality Mockups for Use in Verification: Phase 2

NASA commercial providers are increasing their use of Virtual Reality (VR) and Hybrid Reality (HR) technologies in their system development process. The use of these technologies, collectively referred to as Extended Reality (XR) technologies, has been limited to the development phase, but there have been requests to integrate VR and HR mockups into verifications. Verifications require, at minimum, a high-fidelity mockup for activities involving human participation (tests, demonstrations, inspections). HR technology shares many of the strengths but may not share some of the critical shortcomings of VR. Specifically, HR allows for integrating physical objects, such as a suit, which may be critical to evaluating a system. Adopting HR technology still has many of the same challenges as VR. Namely, there is little to no data about the validity of evaluations conducted with HR mockups, an established process, or criteria for evaluating the appropriateness of HR mockups. Because verifications are final and only need to happen once, HR mockups must be adequately vetted before being approved for use in verifications. Further hindering the adoption of these technologies is the lack of consensus on what constitutes a high-fidelity XR mockup. Even for physical mockups, there are guidelines and common criteria, but nothing has been formalized. Discussion about when an XR mockup can be used would be greatly helped by clearly defining what a high-fidelity XR mockup is and how it might be measured. The team will engage with relevant stakeholders to learn more about the benefits and challenges of adopting hybrid reality mockups for verification. The team will build upon work from Phase 1 by maturing a framework to guide decisions for evaluating XR mockups for use in verifications. The team will also conduct experimental studies to evaluate advantages and tradeoffs of hybrid/mixed reality relative to physical and virtual reality mockups. Finally, data from Phase 1 and Phase 2 will be synthesized into a set of best practices for developing and validating XR mockups for verification. We will highlight the work conducted to date in Phase 2. We will present the status of the XR for Verification Framework, a summary of best practices identified thus far, and give a synopsis of future work.

verification testing↗

A dataset for understanding self-reported patterns influencing residential energy decisions

Household occupant behavior and decision-making dynamics substantially impact technology uptake and residential building energy performance. Although significant research underscores the importance of social science in energy studies, few public data with representative samples on household energy decision-making patterns are available. The dataset (UPGRADE-E: Understanding Patterns Guiding Residential Adoption and Decisions about Energy Efficiency) presents 9,919 responses from U.S. residents of single-family and small multifamily homes. Derived from a national-scale internet survey, the dataset contains 391 variables: demographics, building characteristics, home modifications, willingness to adopt new technologies, motivations for making changes, barriers, program participation, trusted information sources, and energy scenarios. Responses were validated via internal consistency checks and comparison with other U.S. national scale datasets. UPGRADE-E advances knowledge of household energy related decision-making, tying demographics, home modifications, and self-reported cognitive drivers together at a scale and breadth that has not been previously achieved. Policymakers and researchers at local, regional, and national levels may leverage this dataset to understand drivers influencing the adoption of key technologies in U.S. homes.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Quantum Computing Strategy 2026

Quantum computing (QC) is a rapidly maturing technology with the potential for revolutionary impacts on stockpile stewardship science and national security. Recent developments in fault-tolerant architectures have compressed vendor roadmaps, and predictions of a production-ready quantum computer by the mid-2030s are becoming increasingly credible. This strategy provides a roadmap for integrating QC into the Advanced Simulation and Computing (ASC) program by investing in four strategic focus areas: 1. Develop Capabilities in Mission-Relevant Quantum Applications: ASC will prioritize developing quantum-ready applications in mission areas that have shown significant promise for quantum advantage, including simulations of materials in extreme environments, nuclear dynamics, solving linear and nonlinear partial differential equations, and uncertainty quantification. These applications directly support stockpile stewardship science and modernization objectives. 2. Conduct R&D in Algorithms, Software, and Hardware: Sustained research into quantum algorithms, robust software tools, and quantum hardware is essential. ASC will develop efficient quantum algorithms; invest in quantum compilers, debuggers, and performance tools; and explore specialized quantum hardware tailored to NNSA’s unique requirements. 3. Engage with Vendors and Partners: Early and active collaboration with commercial quantum hardware vendors and academic partners is critical. Through testbeds, co-design agreements, and quantum demonstration facilities, ASC will influence hardware design, gain early access to emerging technologies, and ensure that quantum platforms evolve to meet mission needs. 4. Build Knowledge, Experience, and Workforce: Expanding and upskilling the quantum-trained workforce is essential to long-term success. This includes hiring, internal training, university outreach, and postdoctoral support to ensure ASC maintains the expertise required to operate, program, and integrate quantum systems as they become available. While quantum computing will never replace classical computing, it has the potential to solve certain problems with speed and accuracy that would be unachievable using any conceivable classical high-performance computing (HPC) system. By investing strategically in QC, ASC will help propel the emergent QC industry, maintain U.S. technological leadership, ensure mission readiness, and position itself to rapidly adopt quantum technologies as they mature.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Distribution Grid Impact Study in Highland Park, Michigan: Understanding Rooftop Solar, Behind-the-Meter Energy Storage, Electric Vehicle Charging, and Building Electrification [Slides]

Through the Communities LEAP (Local Energy Action Program) Pilot, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) engaged the Highland Park Stakeholder Coalition to scope four technical assistance work areas to address their energy needs and goals. This slide deck addresses the highlighted tasks under work area "B" related to policy analysis, due diligence, and case studies for removing barriers and providing best practices for local clean energy development. Highland Park community members face frequent, long-duration power interruptions due largely to the aging distribution system serving the area and the legacy design standards used in its construction. While degrading physical infrastructure such as poles, crossarms, and transformers can result in this substandard reliability, another notable characteristic of this legacy system is the lower, 4.8 kV, voltage class. This is a legacy construction standard which many utilities, DTE included, are phasing out in favor of higher, 15 or 25 kV, voltage classes instead. The existing 4.8 kV distribution system serving Highland Park may limit significant adoptions of clean-energy technologies like high percentages of building electrification or electric vehicle adoption. The following analysis seeks to quantify these limitations under a variety of clean-energy technology adoption scenarios. It compares the overall system risks of the present system to those of a hypothetical, upgraded 13.2 kV system, using NREL-developed risk metrics and offers upgrade cost considerations. The legacy 4.8 kV voltage class serving Highland park is not, as we have modeled it, a major limitation to the widespread adoption of cost-optimal rooftop solar and/or behind-the-meter energy storage. Within our modeling framework, these technologies namely impact secondary, low-voltage assets, which may be remedied without the need for a system-wide upgrade to a 13.2 kV voltage class. Our model of the current 4.8kV system indicates it is not capable of supporting community-wide electrification efforts. Widespread building electrification, and the resulting large increase in wintertime load, dramatically increases the prevalence of voltage violations and thermal overloading on the current 4.8 kV distribution system. These impacts illustrate the need for system-wide upgrades to a 13.2 kV voltage class to accommodate these technologies. Low to Moderate DER adoption does not adversely impact the grid but does improve undervoltage and asset overloading issues. However, these benefits are insufficient to defer grid upgrades. Higher DER penetration is shown to increase overvoltage and asset overloading in future electrification scenarios.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Electrifying Education: Insights into Charging Electric School Buses in the United States

To combat climate change, the United States joined 193 Parties in committing to the Paris Agreement, which aims to limit global warming to 2 degrees C or less, and decarbonizing transportation will be a key requirement for achieving this goal. School buses (SBs) are a common form of student transport in the U.S. with nearly all SBs today powered by fossil fuels (primarily diesel). As a result, SBs have historically been a concerning source of both greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and local air pollutants with negative health impacts for students and others living nearby. Electric SBs (ESBs) are a promising emerging technology for decarbonizing student transport, however, ESB adoption in the U.S. remains at an early stage (approximate 1.1%) with many outstanding uncertainties. This study aims to elucidate several of these by taking inventory of the total SB stock within U.S. states and studying real-world SB operating profiles to infer potential battery range requirements, daily charging opportunities, and charging infrastructure requirements for ESBs. In addition, we observe the geographic trends of early-stage ESB adoption, which can be used to better understand early adopter patterns and train vehicle technology adoption models.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗

Scenario-based analysis of electric vehicle adoption in the United States: Technology, infrastructure, and electricity pricing

This work investigates the impact of battery technology advancement, charging infrastructure development, and time-of-use (TOU) electricity pricing on vehicle adoption by 6 powertrain types in the United States through 2050. Using the Market Acceptance of Advanced Automotive Technologies (MA3T) model, we simulate 15 scenarios, examining individual cost factors and their combinations. We assess outcomes through market share, consumer surplus, and energy consumption. Results show that battery cost reductions are the strongest driver of EV adoption, increasing 2050 battery electric vehicle (BEV) share by 27 percentage points over baseline, raising annual consumer surplus by $511 per household, and reducing cumulative energy consumption by 16,610 trillion Btu. These gains are two to five times larger than those from other individual factors. Reducing home charging installation costs produces moderate impact, while TOU pricing alone yields only small gains, raising 2050 BEV market share by 1–2 percentage points. However, when cost factor improvements are combined, their effects are amplified beyond simple additivity. Pairing modest battery cost reductions with charging installation cost reductions and TOU pricing results in the largest 2050 BEV sales combined impact. The analysis demonstrates that moderate progress targeting multiple cost barriers may be more impactful than focusing on any single barrier.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗