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Returning an Entire Near-Earth Asteroid in Support of Human Exploration Beyond Low-Earth Orbit

This paper describes the results of a study into the feasibility of identifying, robotically capturing, and returning an entire Near-Earth Asteroid (NEA) to the vicinity of the Earth by the middle of the next decade. The feasibility of such an asteroid retrieval mission hinges on finding an overlap between the smallest NEAs that could be reasonably discovered and characterized and the largest NEAs that could be captured and transported in a reasonable flight time. This overlap appears to be centered on NEAs roughly 7 m in diameter corresponding to masses in the range of 250,000 kg to 1,000,000 kg. The study concluded that it would be possible to return a approx.500,000-kg NEA to high lunar orbit by around 2025. The feasibility is enabled by three key developments: the ability to discover and characterize an adequate number of sufficiently small near-Earth asteroids for capture and return; the ability to implement sufficiently powerful solar electric propulsion systems to enable transportation of the captured NEA; and the proposed human presence in cislunar space in the 2020s enabling exploration and exploitation of the returned NEA. Placing a 500-t asteroid in high lunar orbit would provide a unique, meaningful, and affordable destination for astronaut crews in the next decade. This disruptive capability would have a positive impact on a wide range of the nation's human space exploration interests. It would provide a high-value target in cislunar space that would require a human presence to take full advantage of this new resource. It would offer an affordable path to providing operational experience with astronauts working around and with a NEA that could feed forward to much longer duration human missions to larger NEAs in deep space. It represents a new synergy between robotic and human missions in which robotic spacecraft would retrieve significant quantities of valuable resources for exploitation by astronaut crews to enable human exploration farther out into the solar system. The capture, transportation, examination, and dissection of an entire NEA would provide valuable information for planetary defense activities that may someday have to deflect a much larger near-Earth object. Transportation of the NEA to lunar orbit with a total flight time of 6 to 10 years would be enabled by a ~40-kW solar electric propulsion system with a specific impulse of 3,000 s. The flight system could be launched to low-Earth orbit (LEO) on a single Atlas V-class launch vehicle, and return to lunar orbit a NEA with at least 28 times the mass launched to LEO. Longer flight times, higher power SEP systems, or a target asteroid in a particularly favorable orbit could increase the mass amplification factor from 28-to-1 to 70-to-1 or greater. The NASA GRC COMPASS team estimated the full life-cycle cost of an asteroid capture and return mission at approx.$2.6B.

asteroid mining

Satellite Material Contaminant Optical Properties

The Air Force Wright Research and Development Center and the Arnold Engineering Development Center are continuing a program for measuring optical effects of satellite material outgassing products on cryo-optic surfaces. Presented here are infrared (4000 to 700 cm -1 ) transmittance data for contaminant films condensed on a 77 K geranium window. From the transmittance data, the contaminant film refractive and absorptive indices (n, k) were derived using an analytical thin-film interference model with a nonlinear least-squares algorithm. To date 19 materials have been studied with the optical contents determined for 13 of those. The materials include adhesives, paints, composites, films, and lubricants. This program is continuing and properties for other materials will be available in the future.

B E Wood

The Relevance of the VIPER Mission to NASA’s Artemis Human Exploration of the Moon

NASA has ambitious plans to send astronaut crews to the south polar region of the Moon and explore this lunar terrain with humans for the first time through a series of Artemis missions. Artemis will provide economic benefits, drive technological advancement, and inspire the next generation of explorers. Simultaneously, Artemis presents a unique opportunity for humans to conduct high-priority planetary science in situ in the south polar region of the Moon. Prior to human exploration, landed robotic precursor investigations can provide valuable information to reduce risk and maximize discovery and productivity of subsequent crewed missions. NASA’s Volatiles Investigating Polar Exploration Rover (VIPER) is a robotic mission designed to explore and characterize the lunar south polar region prior to crewed Artemis landed missions. VIPER is designed to explore multiple thermal regimes to characterize the lunar polar environment and regolith properties, and to explore for surface and subsurface ices. Each of these objectives are key for both scientific investigation and to detect and assess volatile deposits to support in situ resource utilization (ISRU) and a sustained human presence on the Moon. VIPER would also operate with a real-time mission operations architecture with relevance and feed-forward to Artemis crewed operations on the lunar surface. VIPER would provide key information regarding the lunar environment, scientific exploration, technologies, and real-time operations to optimize the valuable surface exploration time of Artemis crew members while simultaneously reducing risk to crew and increasing health and human safety on the lunar surface.

Jennifer L Heldmann

Evaluating Crystallinity in Thermoplastic Composites for Aerospace Applications

Polymer matrix composites (PMCs) offer many benefits for the aerospace industry due to their potential for weight reduction when compared to metal or ceramic based materials. Most PMCs currently in flight use thermoset matrices, however, thermoplastic resins are being explored as alternatives due to their ability to be remelted, which is of particular interest due to the potential for in-situ repair and faster production. Most thermoplastic resins are semicrystalline polymers. The properties of semicrystalline thermoplastics are directly influenced by their crystallinity, which can vary due to many factors including thermal treatments, environmental conditions, and mechanical deformation. Within thermoplastic PMC parts, crystallinity gradients can arise due to variations in part geometry, across part thicknesses, and along bonded joints. Monitoring the crystallinity of thermoplastic composites is key to ensuring these materials meet the high demands required for aerospace. Several different analytical techniques exist that can be used to characterize the bulk crystallinity of thermoplastic materials. However, many existing methods lack the specificity required to identify the subtle variations in crystallinity that may play a significant role in the performance and durability of PMC parts. Because of this, a significant amount of work is still required to fully characterize and understand the crystallinity profiles of thermoplastic PMCs and the resulting impact to material properties. This talk discusses the use of multiple techniques such as Differential Scanning Calorimetry, Polarized Light Optical Microscopy, and Fourier-Transform Infrared Spectroscopy to characterize the crystallinity in carbon fiber/thermoplastic composites. Samples of different crystallinity profiles were manufactured using various cooling procedures. This work aims to provide the fundamental data necessary to understand the effects of crystallinity on thermoplastic PMCs, which is key to advancing their use in aerospace applications.

Thermoplastics

Turbofan Engine Power Extraction Demonstration Final Report

As GE Aerospace advances toward a revolutionary step change in propulsion efficiency, the integration and demonstration of new engine architectures and technology systems are essential. The NASA Turbofan Engine Power Extraction Demonstration (PEx), conducted through the Hybrid Thermally Efficient Core (HyTEC) project, aims to develop and demonstrate megawatt-class hybrid electric capability on a modern commercial turbofan engine. The hybrid electric system is critical to meeting the needs of the U.S. aviation industry for next-generational propulsion systems with greater efficiency, durability, and range. This supports energy independence and helps ensure the security and resilience of one of America's largest export industries. The PEx project specifically targets three key objectives: mechanically integrating hybrid electric capability into a commercial turbofan engine, integrating electric machine control with turbofan control for advanced power management, and de-risking performance modeling of future hybrid electric architectures. To mature these technologies to Technology Readiness Level (TRL) 6, a series of electric power system component tests and a baseline engine performance test campaign were conducted. These efforts culminated in an integrated hybrid electric turbofan test campaign demonstrating power extraction, power insertion, and power transfer between spools. Tests of the electric power system were completed at GE Aerospace’s Electrical Power Integrated Systems Center in Dayton, Ohio and engine tests were completed at Peebles Test Operation in Peebles, Ohio. Hybrid electric trade studies extended the demonstrated capability to altitude using the validated cycle model from the PEx test campaigns, allowing for comments on expanded mission benefits not demonstrated in the ground campaign. The knowledge gained from PEx also supports GE Aerospace’s Compact Core Demonstrator as part of HyTEC Phase 2 and ultimately informs the implementation of hybrid electric systems in the next generation of GE Aerospace commercial engine products. This report provides a summary of the program background, test campaigns, trade studies, and insights into the technical maturation required to support future commercial products.

Hybrid Electric

Polymer Composite Material Screening for a Cryotank Application

Composite cryotanks will play a key role in enabling the next generation of efficient aircraft. Carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) composites have the benefits of reduced weight and potentially higher structural strength compared to traditional metallic fuel tanks. A material screening study was conducted to inform material selection for liquid hydrogen (LH2) fuel storage. Three composite materials were considered because of their aerospace grade toughness, strength, and existing data to compare against. These materials were a thermoplastic low-melt polyaryletherketone (LM-PAEK)/carbon fiber (CF), thermoset/CF, and hybrid thermoset/thermoplastic polyurethane (TPU) veil/CF composite. Mechanical screening tests included tension, compression, in-plane shear (IPS), and tensile-tensile fatigue (TTF). Each material was tested at both a baseline (no liquid nitrogen/LN2 cycling) and 100 LN2-cycled conditions to determine the knockdown factor, if any, of each material when exposed to environmental loading effects in a cryotank. Results show minimal effects of the LN2-cycling compared against baseline values. The three materials behaved similarly in tension; however, the thermoplastic/CF had the highest IPS toughness. The hybrid thermoset/TPU/CF composite had the lowest IPS strength, compressive strength, and toughness. LN2-cycling had minimal effects on tensile-tensile fatigue performance of the thermoplastic/CF material. Mechanical data was captured to guide material down selection for future commercially viable hydrogen aircraft design.

Composites

Use of Assistive Technology to Augment API Capabilities

Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) allow for access to data and capabilities of computer applications by developers or users with experience in computer programming. Recent development with both Thermal Desktop and ESATAN-TMS have provided APIs to allow users to develop their own capabilities that interface with the Graphical User Interfaces (GUI) or manipulate the thermal model data. However, these APIs are only as good as the breadth of features in the native code accessible through the API; if a particular code’s feature is not accessible through the API, then users have very limited options besides waiting for updates to the API that expose the necessary functionality, particularly if model data access or user action, such as a button click, is required. However, Assistive Technology features that allow for differently-abled users to more fully experience a software’s capabilities may be creatively utilized to gain further access to data and capabilities not yet exposed by the API. This paper describes the process to augment the features of the OpenTD API via assistive technology and describes how to identify the application instance, navigate GUI elements, updates values on forms, and execute actions such as selecting a listbox item or clicking a button. It concludes with identifying some of the pitfalls to avoid and describes methods to best implement this approach.

Application Programming Interface

Radiation Temperature and Extinction of Transient Gaseous Diffusion Flames in Microgravity

The absence of buoyancy-induced flows in micro-g and the resulting increase in the reactant residence time significantly alters the fundamentals of many combustion processes. Substantial differences between 1-g and micro-g flames have been reported in experiments on candle flames, flame spread over solids, droplet combustion and others. These differences are more basic than just in the visible flame shape. Longer residence times and higher concentration of combustion products in the flame zone create a thermochemical environment which changes the flame chemistry and the heat and mass transfer processes. Processes such as flame radiation (and its interaction with flame chemistry), that are often ignored under normal gravity, become very important and sometimes even controlling. This is particularly true for conditions at extinction of a micro-g diffusion flame.

Arvind Atreya

Use of Assistive Technology to Augment API Capabilities

Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) allow for access to data and capabilities of computer applications by developers or users with experience in computer programming. Recent development with both Thermal Desktop and ESATAN-TMS have provided APIs to allow users to develop their own capabilities that interface with the Graphical User Interfaces (GUI) or manipulate the thermal model data. However, these APIs are only as good as the breadth of features in the native code accessible through the API. If a particular code’s feature is not accessible through the API, then users have very limited options besides waiting for updates to the API that expose the necessary functionality, particularly if model data access or user action, such as a button click, is required. However, Assistive Technology features that allow for users with a disability to more fully experience a software’s capabilities may be creatively utilized to gain further access to data and capabilities not yet exposed by the API. This paper describes the process to augment the features of the OpenTD API via assistive technology and describes how to identify the application instance, navigate GUI elements, updates values on forms, and execute actions such as selecting a listbox item or clicking a button. It concludes with identifying some of the pitfalls to avoid and describes methods to best implement this approach.

Application Programming Interface

Isotopic Evidence for A Cold and Distant Origin of 3I/Atlas

Interstellar objects provide the only directly observable samples of icy planetesimals formed around other stars, and can therefore provide insight into the diversity of physical and chemical conditions occurring during exoplanet formation1−3. Here we report isotopic measurements of the interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS, which reveal an elemental composition unlike any Solar System body. The water in 3I/ATLAS is enriched in deuterium, at a level of D/H = (0.98 ± 0.06)%, which is more than an order of magnitude higher than in known comets, while its range of 12 C/ 13 C ratios (141–191 for CO 2 and 123–172 for CO) exceeds typical values found in the Solar System, as well as nearby interstellar clouds and protoplanetary disks. Such extreme isotopic signatures indicate formation at temperatures ≲ 30 K in a relatively metal-poor environment. When interpreted with respect to models for Galactic chemical evolution, the carbon isotopic composition implies that 3I/ATLAS may have accreted as long ago as 12 billion years, following a period of intense, early star formation. 3I/ATLAS thus represents a preserved fragment of an ancient planetary system.

Martin A Cordiner

Laboratory Investigations: Low Earth Orbit Environment Chemistry With Spacecraft Surfaces

Long-term space operations that require exposure of material to the low earth orbit (LEO) environment must take into account the effects of this highly oxidative atmosphere on material properties and the possible contamination of the spacecraft surroundings. Ground-based laboratory experiments at Los Alamos using a newly developed hyperthermal atomic oxygen (AO) source have shown that not only are hydrocarbon based materials effected but that inorganic materials such as MoS2 are also oxidized and that thin protective coatings such as Al2O3 can be breached, producing oxidation of the underlying substrate material. Gas-phase reaction products, such as SO2 from oxidation of MoS2 and CO and CO2 from hydrocarbon materials, have been detected and have consequences in terms of spacecraft contamination. Energy loss through gas-surface collisions causing spacecraft drag has been measured for a few select surfaces and has been found to be highly dependent on the surface reactivity.

Jon B Cross

Multifrequency, Multipolarization External Calibration of the SIR-C/X-SAR Radars

Progress and the future plans for the following objectives are discussed: (1) Assess the accuracy at which the SIR-C/X-SAR standard data products can be calibrated through the use of ground calibrators to estimate the end-to-end system polarization calibration constants (or distortion parameters) and incorporate the constants into the data processing; (2) Study the cross-calibration between three multipolarization systems: SIR-C, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration/Jet Propulsion Laboratory (NASA/JPL) DC-8 SAR, and the University of Michigan ground-based polarimetric scatterometer; (3) Evaluate the calibration "stability" of SIR-C/X-SAR (measured by variations in the calibration constants) over the range swath width and over a specified distance in azimuth. Variations over a 12-hour period (between ascending and descending passes) will also be studied; and (4) Develop a cost-effective calibration plan including development of inexpensive polarimetric active calibrators.

Anthony Freeman

Resistance of Silicon Nitride Turbine Components to Erosion and Hot Corrosion/Oxidation Attack

Silicon nitride turbine components are under intensive development by AlliedSignal to enable a new generation of higher power density auxiliary power systems. In order to be viable in the intended applications, silicon nitride turbine airfoils must be designed for survival in aggressive oxidizing combustion gas environments. Erosive and corrosive damage to ceramic airfoils from ingested sand and sea salt must be avoided. Recent engine test experience demonstrated that NT154 silicon nitride turbine vanes have exceptional resistance to sand erosion, relative to superalloys used in production engines. Similarly, NT154 silicon nitride has excellent resistance to oxidation in the temperature range of interest - up to 1400 C. Hot corrosion attack of superalloy gas turbine components is well documented. While hot corrosion from ingested sea salt will attack silicon nitride substantially less than the superalloys being replaced in initial engine applications, this degradation has the potential to limit component lives in advanced engine applications. Hot corrosion adversely affects the strength of silicon nitride in the 850 to 1300 C range. Since unacceptable reductions in strength must be rapidly identified and avoided, AlliedSignal and the NASA Lewis Research Center have pioneered the development of an environmental life prediction model for silicon nitride turbine components. Strength retention in flexure specimens following 1 to 3300 hour exposures to high temperature oxidation and hot corrosion has been measured and used to calibrate the life prediction model. Predicted component life is dependent upon engine design (stress, temperature, pressure, fuel/air ratio, gas velocity, and inlet air filtration), mission usage (fuel sulfur content, location (salt in air), and times at duty cycle power points), and material parameters. Preliminary analyses indicate that the hot corrosion resistance of NT154 silicon nitride is adequate for AlliedSignal's initial engine applications. Protective coatings and/or inlet air filtration may be required to achieve required ceramic component lives in more aggressive environments.

Nitride

Gaseous Optical Contamination of the Spacecraft Environment: A Review

Interactions between the ambient atmosphere and orbiting spacecraft, sounding rockets, and suborbital vehicles, and with their effluents, give rise to optical (extreme UV to LWIR) foreground radiation which constitutes noise that raises the detection threshold for terrestrial and celestial radiations, as well as military targets. Researchers review the current information on the on-orbit optical contamination. Its source species are created in interaction processes that can be grouped into three categories: (1) Reactions in the gas phase between the ambient atmosphere and desorbates and exhaust; (2) Reactions catalyzed by exposed ram surfaces, which occur spontaneously even in the absence of active material releases from the vehicles; and (3) Erosive excitative reactions with exposed bulk (organic) materials, which have recently been identified in the laboratory though not as yet observed on spacecraft. Researchers also assess the effect of optical pumping by earthshine and sunlight of both reaction products and effluents.

Tran, N. H.

Proceedings of the 36th Aerospace Mechanisms Symposium

The Aerospace Mechanisms Symposium (AMS) provides a unique forum for those active in the design, production, and use of aerospace mechanisms. A major focus is the reporting of problems and solutions associated with the development and flight certification of new mechanisms. Organized by the Mechanisms Education Association, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and Lockheed Martin Space Systems Company (LMSSC) share the responsibility for hosting the AMS. Now in its 36th year, the AMS continues to be well attended, attracting participants from both the United States and abroad. The 36th AMS, hosted by the Glenn Research Center (GRC) in Cleveland, Ohio, was held May 15, 16, and 17, 2002. During these three days, 32 papers were presented. Topics included deployment mechanisms, tribology, actuators, pointing and optical mechanisms, International Space Station mechanisms, release mechanisms, and test equipment. Hardware displays during the supplier exhibit gave attendees an opportunity to meet with developers of current and future mechanism components.

Boesiger, Edward A.

Numerical Investigation of Heat Transfer and Fluid Flow within Electrochemical Hydrogen Peroxide Generation Unit

Long-term manned space missions require the onboard production of disinfectants essential for maintaining crew health and supporting life systems. Currently, disinfection aboard the International Space Station (ISS) relies on disposable wetted wipes, which are regularly resupplied from Earth. This approach imposes a significant burden on resupply logistics, storage, and waste management. To address these challenges and support future missions, efforts are underway to develop an in-situ solution that electrochemically generates hydrogen peroxide disinfectant using onboard resources. In collaboration with NASA, Faraday Technology, Inc. has advanced this concept through a series of Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) projects, resulting in the development of a Peroxide Generation Unit (PGU). The PGU can produce up to 3 wt.% hydrogen peroxide on-demand at a rate of 1 liter per day, providing a sustainable alternative to Earth-dependent supplies. The resulting aqueous hydrogen peroxide (H₂O₂) is an effective disinfectant, safe for crew use, compatible with spacecraft systems, and free from volatiles, off-gassing, or residues. This innovation offers a reliable, efficient solution for onboard disinfection, reducing dependence on Earth-based resupply while ensuring the health and safety of space crews. Generating hydrogen peroxide at the required rate needs high voltages and currents, exceeding 20V and 2A respectively, which leads to significant heat generation from Joule heating. This temperature rise poses a risk to sensitive system components, especially critical and expensive membranes that can degrade under thermal stress. To mitigate this risk, the thermal, fluid, and electrical flows within the system are modeled computationally using the commercial software COMSOL. The numerical simulations are validated against experimental data from both sub-scale and alpha-scale systems. Once verified, the model is employed to identify thermal hotspots, investigate their underlying causes, and explore solutions to prevent them.

Life Support Systems (LSS)

High-Order Methods in NASA’s Next Generation of Computational Fluid Dynamics Tools

The missions of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) routinely produce unique requirements and challenges for development and application of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) methods. NASA presently embodies four distinct Mission Directorates: Aeronautics Research, Exploration Systems, Science, and Space Operations. These missions generate requirements for systems that operate in a wide variety of environments. They range from the high-speed flight of aerodynamically optimized vehicles operating in the earth’s atmosphere to spacecraft designed for missions that don’t favor aerodynamic optimization, some operating in the atmosphere of planets and planetary moons such as Mars and Venus or Saturn’s moon Titan. Systems supporting these vehicles, such as rocket and jet propulsion, reaction control systems, fluid and thermal transfer systems, etc. can also generate their own unique set of flow phenomena that challenge today’s CFD methodology. Through the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC), NASA annually conducts state-of-the-discipline assessments in fifteen distinct engineering disciplines. These assessments are performed by the NASA Technical Fellows that lead Technical Discipline Teams (TDT) of recognized experts in these fifteen areas. In the Aerosciences discipline, three topics have been identified as the top challenges for the discipline: aero-plume interaction prediction, unsteady separated flows, and aerothermodynamic prediction. These challenge areas are defined by the Agency’s high-risk projects and problems on which the NESC is requested to perform independent testing, analysis, and assessments. When viewed as a whole, these tests, analyses, and assessments provide a clear view of the recurring technical challenges facing Agency engineers and researchers and can be used to guide future research and technology development. The present state-of-the-art in the application of CFD at NASA is the use of Reynolds-Averaged Navier- Stokes (RANS) solvers, primarily executed in a steady-state mode of operation. In isolated cases, Unsteady RANS (URANS) solvers have been employed when steady RANS solutions produce poorly converging or oscillating results or in cases, such as aeroelastic analysis, which require unsteady aerodynamic simulation. For most traditional external and internal aerodynamic flows, structured overset grids or unstructured grids are employed to minimize geometric modeling and grid generation times. Grid adaptation, primarily as a series of coarse-grain intermediate processing steps is also seeing use on particularly complex flow problems and configurations. In the case of aerothermodynamic flows, engineers have been forced to continue to employ structured grid techniques as the present unstructured grid methodology has proven inadequate in the prediction of surface heating. In the area of aero-plume interaction modeling, two-gas, frozen chemistry simulation is generally the state-of-the- art, with some production solvers capable of predicting flows with only a single gas component. Prediction of flows falling into the afore-mentioned top Aerosciences technical challenges have severely stressed the present state-of-the-art in CFD prediction and for some problems, such as unsteady separated flows and aero-plume interaction cases, engineers have begun employing Large Eddy Simulation (LES) and Hybrid RANS/LES techniques. In some isolated aero-propulsion interaction cases, chemically reacting flow simulations have been applied. These methods are highly evolutionary and engineers have little experience in their application, so they cannot be heavily relied upon in today’s application environment. Therefore, this leads one to muse over which numerical technologies will be included in the CFD tools that will be employed 30 years in the future. This presentation will describe specific technical problems that have stressed NASA’s traditional CFD methods to their breaking point and will link these issues to the Agency’s top Aerosciences technical challenges. The discussion will then shift to the characteristics of future CFD solvers that will be required to attack these challenges and how these characteristics differ from the present state-of-the- art. High-order methods certainly appear to have a place in the development of future CFD tools and some of the physical characteristics of our most challenging problems suggest that high-order methods are the only way to effectively solve them. But there are some relatively severe implementation issues that face these methods, particularly in the area of general applicability and robust operation as an engineering tool. Desired characteristics of next-generation CFD solvers will be discussed and the author’s view of which emerging numerical technologies might be employed to address these attributes will also be presented

David M Schuster

Petermann Glacier on the Brink: Progress, Challenges and Insights

Petermann Glacier, the largest marine-terminating glacier in northern Greenland based on catchment area and ice discharge, plays a key role in regulating ice discharge from the Greenland Ice Sheet into the Arctic Ocean. With an upstream catchment connected to the ice sheet interior via a deep subglacial canyon, its future stability has major implications for sea level rise. In this review, we synthesize recent advances in understanding Petermann’s dynamics across three critical interfaces: the ice–ocean, ice–atmosphere, and ice–bed boundaries. At the surface, observations show that reanalysis products underestimate air temperatures and melt, while regional climate models diverge significantly in their estimates of surface mass balance, underscoring the need for improved in situ data and models. At the ocean boundary, enhanced basal melting driven by both subglacial runoff and Atlantic water intrusions is identified as the dominant driver of recent mass loss of Petermann Glacier, with continued warming posing a serious threat to the stability of the floating tongue. At the bed, new geophysical synthesis reveals complex geology, likely spatial variability in geothermal heat flux, and the influence of the megacanyon on seasonal hydrology and velocity fluctuations. Petermann’s mass balance has been negative in recent decades without corresponding flow acceleration. However, the glacier has undergone significant calving events, and the current rifting that began in September 2025 highlights its vulnerability. This upcoming calving event underscores the timeliness of this review, as it will put Petermann Glacier’s terminus at its most retreated position since records began in 1923. The anticipated retreat of the ice tongue also reduces buttressing and brings the terminus closer to the grounding zone, and modeling studies suggest that calving within 12 km of the grounding zone could potentially trigger dynamic retreat, accelerating ice discharge, and a doubling of flow speeds. We conclude that improved observations, sustained monitoring of oceanographic and atmospheric properties, and high-resolution modeling are critical to constraining projections of Petermann Glacier’s future and its role in the stability of the Greenland Ice Sheet.

Dominik Fahrner