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DOE OSTI2026

Refractory-based thermal energy storage for industrial process heat: one-dimensional modeling, control, and optimization

The variable and weather-dependent output of wind and solar power plants present a substantial challenge for planning and operating electricity-systems, particularly in the absence of cost-effective and dispatchable energy storage technologies. This study investigates a high-temperature, electrically heated, refractory-based thermal energy storage (RTES) system that stores electrical energy as sensible heat in dense ceramic bricks over the 950–1800 °C range. The stored heat can be discharged as a controlled hot-gas stream for industrial heating, fuel substitution in high-temperature processes, or electricity generation. The main novelty is a comprehensive modelling, control, mapping, and optimization framework that integrates one-dimensional transient gas–solid heat transfer, fan-assisted discharge, bypass-flow regulation, reheating logic, fan-power evaluation, insulation-loss assessment, and genetic-algorithm-based design optimization. The model uses feedback from outlet temperature and delivered power to regulate discharge, while a two-stage genetic algorithm optimizes brick-channel geometry, gas-flow operation, and multilayer insulation thicknesses. Storage capacities below 50 MWh and discharge powers of 5–30 MW are analyzed to evaluate hold time, thermal delivery, fan-power penalty, heat loss, state-of-charge evolution, and indicative capital cost. Results demonstrate that optimized and well-insulated refractory-based thermal energy storage units can provide stable, efficient, and repeatable heat delivery over multiple discharge cycles. The generated performance and cost maps support modular refractory thermal energy storage as a practical option for large-scale integration of wind and solar generation and for high-temperature industrial process heat.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2026

AutoBEM: A scalable framework for nationwide building energy simulation and retrofit evaluation in the United States

This paper presents AutoBEM, an integrated, automated framework for nationwide building energy modeling and retrofit evaluation in the United States. Unlike prior UBEM platforms that either rely primarily on representative stock sampling or operate at city scale, AutoBEM automates the generation of building-resolved, physics-based EnergyPlus/OpenStudio simulation models at national scale using GIS-derived geometry, prototype-based assumptions, and standardized scalable workflows. Leveraging the Model America dataset and high-performance computing, AutoBEM generates and simulates energy models for 122.9 million buildings, representing 97.8% of the U.S. building stock. These models are being made publicly and freely available as the Model America v1.0 (MAv1) dataset. AutoBEM supports detailed, building-level assessments of energy consumption, CO2 emissions, and post-processed anthropogenic heat emissions (AHE), and evaluates 151 energy conservation measures (ECMs) using localized utility pricing and building characteristics. In addition, AutoBEM incorporates both typical and future climate conditions through integration with Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) and Future TMY (fTMY) weather data derived from IPCC scenarios. In a case study of Phoenix, Arizona, AutoBEM identified several high-efficiency HVAC upgrades and selected envelope measures with short modeled payback periods (1.5 years) for certain building types and standards. Simulations under future climate scenarios (SSP5–RCP8.5) project an 11.3% increase in electricity use and a 32% reduction in natural gas demand by 2100, underscoring the need for climate-adaptive retrofit planning. By enabling reproducible, bottom-up, and location-specific analysis at scale, AutoBEM provides a step toward a national digital twin of the built environment and supports data-driven screening and planning for decarbonization, resilience, and energy equity.

Li, Hang [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000306001920)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Developing affordable and efficient heating devices for enhanced live cell imaging in confocal microscopy

Temperature control is crucial for live cell imaging, particularly in studies involving plant responses to high ambient temperatures and thermal stress. This study presents the design, development, and testing of two cost-effective heating devices tailored for confocal microscopy applications: an aluminum heat plate and a wireless mini-heater. The aluminum heat plate, engineered to integrate seamlessly with the standard 160 mm × 110 mm microscope stage, supports temperatures up to 36°C, suitable for studies in the range of non-stressful warm temperatures (e.g., 25-27°C forArabidopsis thaliana) and moderate heat stress (e.g., 30-36°C forA. thaliana). We also developed a wireless mini-heater that offers rapid, precise heating directly at the sample slide, with a temperature increase rate over 30 times faster than the heat plate. The wireless heater effectively maintained target temperatures up to 50°C, ideal for investigating severe heat stress and heat shock responses in plants. Both devices performed well in controlled studies, including the real-time analysis of heat shock protein accumulation and stress granule formation inA. thaliana. Our designs are effective and affordable, with total construction costs lower than $300. This accessibility makes them particularly valuable for small laboratories with limited funding. Future improvements could include enhanced heat uniformity, humidity control to mitigate evaporation, and more robust thermal management to minimize focus drift during extended imaging sessions. These modifications would further solidify the utility of our heating devices in live cell imaging, offering researchers reliable, budget-friendly tools for exploring plant thermal biology.

Plant Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2026

Healable Coatings as a Mechanism to Repair Leading Edge Erosion in Wind Energy

Wind turbine blades are highly engineered structures designed to face temperature extremes and high winds. However, erosion of the blade's leading edge and subsequent repair remains a significant and costly challenge for the wind energy industry. Repair of these leading edges can lead to large amounts of downtime for the turbine and significant operational inefficiencies. In this work, the strength of adhesion and healing ability of a commercially available vitrimer (Mallinda's VITRIMAX) was compared to that of a thermoplastic resin, which has previously been demonstrated in wind energy applications (Arkema's Elium) to evaluate their efficacy as surface coatings for wind turbine blades, particularly their leading edges. Vitrimers are a class of inherently reprocessable thermosets, and it was theorized that vitrimer-based leading edge coatings could enable more robust and efficient wind turbine blades with decreased operational downtime and safer maintenance practices. It was found that the VITRIMAX adhered better to the wind blades' surfaces than both the manufacturer's paint and Elium, with increases in pull-off strength of adhesion ranging from 24% to 83% above that of the original paint. Furthermore, the VITRIMAX adhered strongly to the underlying composite of each blade with strength of adhesion values increasing in ranges from 42% to 97% above that of the original paint. Finally, the vitrimer coating showed an 88% decrease in surface roughness compared to end-of-life blade materials, and initial healing demonstrations in which coatings were manually scratched and subsequently healed exhibited an ~84.5% decrease in scratch depths.

Hubbard, Amber [ORNL]↗

NASA NTRS2026

A Review of Superconducting Electric Machines with On-Board Cryocoolers

This paper reviews the evolution and emerging direction of superconducting electric machines that employ onboard cryocoolers integrated directly into the rotor, eliminating the need for cryogenic fluid coupling and, in some cases, rotary seals. Traditional low-temperature superconducting (LTS) machines relied on external cryogenic systems and liquid helium transfer couplers, which introduced excessive complexity, poor reliability, and significant parasitic energy losses. The advent of high-temperature superconductors (HTS) has enabled compact, closed-cycle cryocoolers that support self-contained, fluid-free refrigeration architectures suitable for rotating applications. This paper examines the key technological challenges associated with on-board cryocooler integration and reviews three representative efforts by KAIST, NASA, and Hinetics, each illustrating distinct strategies and milestones toward practical implementation. KAIST demonstrated early proof-of-concept for rotating machines with on-board cryocoolers, NASA developed a shaft-integrated Stirling-type pulse tube cryocooler for a 1.4 MW hybrid-electric motor, and Hinetics achieved full-scale validation of a self-contained HTS rotor incorporating a commercial Stirling cryocooler and spoke-suspension torque tube. Collectively, these achievements confirm the technical feasibility of on-board cryogenic refrigeration and highlight steady progress toward compact and efficient superconducting rotating systems across various applications. Embedding cryocoolers directly within the rotor enables practical, efficient, and commercially viable superconducting propulsion technologies.

Cryogenics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Electricity Markets and Long-Duration Energy Storage: A Survey of Grid Services and Revenue Streams

Purpose of Review Long Duration Energy Storage (LDES) is increasingly viewed as a potential resource for providing grid services that enhance the stability and flexibility of electricity systems. While some LDES services are integrated into existing market frameworks, traditional mechanisms may not fully account for their operational characteristics, potentially leading to undervaluation. Within this context, this paper reviews the literature and industry practices to assess potential grid services for LDES, evaluates existing compensation mechanisms, and identifies challenges to full market integration. Recent Findings We first review existing literature and identify key grid services unique to LDES, including enhancing grid resilience during extreme weather events, enabling long-term energy shifting, and providing flexible and firm energy in systems with limited dispatchable resources. Here, we also review how LDES services are compensated in current market frameworks and the challenges associated with the full realization of LDES values. Additionally, we summarize market mechanisms for storage technologies across U.S. wholesale markets. We find that some markets are adjusting incentive structures, such as incorporating storage duration in capacity accreditation, to better align with system needs and LDES contributions to the grid. However, further refinements in capacity remuneration and dispatch timeframes may be needed for more effective realization of LDES value. Summary This review evaluates potential grid services for LDES, examines existing compensation mechanisms for LDES technologies, and identifies gaps between these mechanisms and LDES operational characteristics. The review concludes by outlining potential market enhancements for more effective LDES integration and articulating additional research needs to support its efficient participation in future power systems.

Flexible resources↗

DOE OSTI2025

Mild-Annealed Molecular Layer Deposition (MLD) Tincone Thin Film as Photoelectrochemically Stable and Efficient Electron Transport Layer for Si Photocathodes

Metalcone thin films, composed of inorganic–organic hybrids, are synthesized using molecular layer deposition (MLD) through reactions between organometallic precursors (e.g., Sn, Al, and Ti) and organic reactants (e.g., ethylene glycol and glycerol). Despite their unique properties, metalcones exhibit significant vulnerability to water due to their organic components, limiting their potential in electrochemical applications. This study focuses on enhancing the photoelectrochemical stability of tincone thin films in aqueous electrolyte while preserving their hybrid characteristics through mild annealing in air at 250 °C. As-deposited and vacuum-annealed tincone thin films exhibited significant degradation under these conditions, while high-temperature-annealed (500 °C) tincone thin films offered improved stability with a significant decline in charge transfer efficiency. In contrast, mild annealing in air maintained the C–O bond at half level and improved the stability and charge transport without compromising the unique characteristics of tincone. This was confirmed by ellipsometry, X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR). Mild-annealed tincone deposited on a lightly doped p-type silicon (p-Si) photocathode produced a 20-fold increase in CO volume compared to high-temperature annealed tincone in a CO 2 -saturated potassium bicarbonate (KHCO 3 ) electrolyte with dispersed graphene oxide–cobalt phthalocyanine (GO-CoPc) under 1 sun illumination at 0.9 V vs reversible hydrogen electrode (RHE), while maintaining the faradaic efficiency for CO and H 2 . These results suggest that mild-annealed tincone thin films hold significant potential as protective charge transport layers on silicon photocathodes for the aqueous CO 2 reduction reaction (CO 2 RR).

Annealing (metallurgy)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Tracing U.S. fuel life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions in a multi-sector dynamics model using LC-GCAM

Model-based analysis of fuel pathways is essential for informing energy and environmental policy. Two major model types are typically used: multi-sector dynamics models, which capture the broader energy-economy, such as GCAM (Global Change Analysis Model), and life cycle assessment models, such as GREET (Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation). Each has distinct strengths and limitations, and recent studies increasingly adopt hybrid approaches to harness the advantages of both. However, such integration is often time-consuming and complicated by inconsistencies in system boundaries and technology definitions. We present LC-GCAM, a new tool that enables estimation of life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions and primary energy use for any fuel pathway represented in GCAM. We apply LC-GCAM to 300 scenarios designed to explore key uncertainties affecting the life-cycle performance of future fuel options in the U.S. freight sector. To evaluate LC-GCAM, we compare its results with those from GREET for nine fuel types in a 2030 reference scenario. When input assumptions are modestly aligned, LC-GCAM and GREET estimates typically agree within 10% (absolute sum-based mean absolute percentage error). LC-GCAM offers a flexible and efficient approach to generating life-cycle metrics within an integrated modeling framework, supporting robust policy analysis across a wide range of interacting energy system uncertainties.

Wolfram, Paul↗

DOE OSTI2024

Integrated Approach to Post-Irradiation Examination of Nuclear Materials at Idaho National Laboratory

Idaho national Laboratory (INL) is the U.S. lead national laboratory for the Department of Energy’s Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE), providing much of the nuclear research, development and demonstration capability needed to move nuclear innovation forward to deployment. INL’s Materials and Fuels Complex hosts a unique combination of personnel, facilities and infrastructure and offers the ability to perform post-irradiation examinations (PIE) of nuclear materials spanning multiple length scales. The ability to combine engineering-scale analysis and sub-microscopic characterization provides valuable insights into fuel and structural material behavior and degradation mechanisms. The holistic approach is used to accelerate these materials demonstration and deployment. Selected studies will be presented, highlighting the impact of these techniques on improving fuel reliability, safety, and efficiency, thereby advancing the development of sustainable and advanced nuclear energy technologies.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Self‐Healing System for Polydicyclopentadiene Thermosets

Self-healing offers promise for addressing structural failures, increasing lifespan, and improving durability in polymeric materials. Implementing self-healing in thermoset polymers faces significant manufacturing challenges, especially due to the elevated temperature requirements of thermoset processing. To introduce self-healing into structural thermosets, the self-healing system must be thermally stable and compatible with the thermoset chemistry. This article demonstrates a self-healing microcapsule-based system stable to frontal polymerization (FP), a rapid and energy-efficient manufacturing process with a self-propagating exothermic reaction (≈200 °C). A thermally latent Grubbs-type complex bearing two N-heterocyclic carbene ligands addresses limitations in conventional G2-based self-healing approaches. Under FP's elevated temperatures, the catalyst remains dormant until activated by a Cu(I) co-reagent, ensuring efficient polymerization of the dicyclopentadiene (DCPD) upon damage to the polyDCPD matrix. The two-part microcapsule system consists of one capsule containing the thermally latent Grubbs-type catalyst dissolved in the solvent, and another capsule containing a Cu(I) coagent blended with liquid DCPD monomer. Using the same chemistry for both matrix fabrication and healing results in strong interfaces as demonstrated by lap-shear tests. In an optimized system, the self-healing system restores the mechanical properties of the tough polyDCPD thermoset. Self-healing efficiencies greater than 90% via tapered double cantilever beam tests are observed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS2019

Heat Transfer Enhancement in Cryogenic Quenching Process

This paper reports a heat transfer advancement in the cryogenic quenching process. An experiment was performed to evaluate the enhancement of quenching heat transfer by the use of metal tubes with low thermal conductivity coating layers. Four coating thicknesses with various coolant mass flow rates of liquid nitrogen were investigated. The results indicated that the tube inner surface coating greatly enhanced the quenching efficiency. The quenching efficiency was found to increase with increasing number of coating layers, and the efficiency also increased with decreasing mass flow rates. In general, the efficiencies cover a range between 40.6% and 80%. Comparing to the bare surface case, the percentage increase in the quenching efficiency was the minimum at 4.2% for a single coated layer at the highest flow rate and the maximum of 109.1% for four coated layers at the lowest flow rate. The coated tubes could save up to 53% in the amount of cryogen consumption.

two-phase flow↗

DOE OSTI2026

Working Fluid Characterization and Performance Assessment of Subcritical Organic Rankine Cycles Based on the Lee–Kesler Approach for Energy Recovery

Here, a generalized model using the Lee–Kesler approach based on the corresponding states principle is developed to assess the performance of subcritical Organic Rankine Cycles operating with different working fluids. Each fluid is characterized by five parameters: the acentric factor, critical temperature, critical pressure, molar mass, and the ideal-gas ratio of specific heats at the critical temperature. The model was developed using the compressibility factor modified version of the Benedict–Webb–Rubin equation proposed by Lee and Kesler and the enthalpy and entropy functions to calculate thermodynamic state properties. The model was validated by comparing the results calculated with the model and working fluid thermodynamic properties obtained with the CoolProp database. This comparison was conducted for 91 working fluids, obtaining a relative error below 5% for 88 out of the 91 fluids (∼97%). A generalized parametric study was conducted to determine the influence of the pinch point and each fluid parameter on the performance of Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) systems. It was found that efficiency increases with critical temperature, ideal-gas ratio of specific heats at the critical temperature, and acentric factor, reaching up to 13%. The developed model enables the evaluation of ORC system performance for existing working fluids. It also allows the formulation and evaluation of new fluids to enhance the performance of the ORC while retrieving energy from any kind of source; and likewise, the methodology can be applied to other power generation cycles.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Experimental and Numerical Investigation of the NASA High Efficiency Centrifugal Compressor Vaned Stage Geometry and Aerodynamic Performance

Since its inception in the early 2010s, the NASA High Efficiency Centrifugal Compressor (HECC) has been enigmatic for the propulsion research community: experimental data and numerical simulations of the stage have generally not aligned in their quantifications of performance metrics. Typically, the fault for these disagreements is assigned to the numerical simulations as the simulations are models, and models are inherently incomplete representations of the experiment. This “incompleteness” may manifest in assumptions regarding roughness or heat transfer, simplifications of the flow path (i.e., neglecting bleed flows), or the oft-scapegoated turbulence model. In the case of HECC, recent work showed unexpected discrepancies between the intended impeller geometry defined in the design report (termed Design-Intent) and the manufactured impeller used in the experimental campaigns (termed As-Manufactured). That work used numerical simulations to establish that the geometric differences between the Design-Intent and As-Manufactured impellers were significant enough to result in drastically different performance predictions for the HECC vaneless diffuser configuration. The Design-Intent impeller simulations over predicted the performance relative to the experiment, whereas the As-Manufactured simulations better represented the experimental data, both in terms of one-dimensional performance metrics and spanwise flow profiles. This effort expands on that work by examining in detail the geometry and aerodynamic performance of the HECC vaned diffuser configuration. Further differences between the Design-Intent and As-Manufactured geometries have been discovered in the vaned diffuser and exit guide vanes, and these differences are documented herein. The summations of the geometric differences for all of the components were used to create two numerical models of HECC vaned diffuser configuration: the Design-Intent simulations which are generated from the original geometry definitions given in the design report and the As-Manufactured simulations which are the best available representation of the manufactured compressor hardware used in the experimental test campaigns. In congruence with the earlier vaneless diffuser work, the numerical predictions of the Design-Intent choked mass flow rate, total pressure ratio, and efficiency were notably greater than that of the As-Manufactured simulations. To increase confidence in the experimental dataset, measurements from a recent test campaign conducted in 2024 are used to validate the original experimental data acquired from 2012 to 2014 with good repeatability overall, especially considering the passage of time and differences in the data acquisition systems between the test campaigns. Both numerical simulations were then extensively evaluated against the experimental data. The As-Manufactured simulations provided better estimates of the stage performance than the Design-Intent cases in terms of most performance metrics. Nonetheless, more detailed results still show opportunities for improvement. Despite a more accurate representation of the physical hardware, characterization of the impeller work input remains a challenge even for rigorously developed numerical models.

vaned diffuser↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Experimental and Numerical Investigation of the NASA High Efficiency Centrifugal Compressor Vaned Stage Geometry and Aerodynamic Performance

centrifugal compressor↗

DOE OSTI2025

Large language model-driven database for thermoelectric materials

Thermoelectric materials have the ability to convert waste heat into electricity, offering a valuable solution for energy harvesting. However, their widespread use is hindered by low conversion efficiency, the reliance on expensive rare earth elements, and the environmental and regulatory concerns associated with lead-based materials. A fast and cost-effective way to identify highly efficient thermoelectric materials is through data-driven methods. These approaches rely on robust and comprehensive datasets to train models. Although there are several databases on thermoelectric materials, there is still a need to collect and integrate experimental data from peer-reviewed research articles to capture diverse compositions and properties of materials. Here, in this work, we developed a comprehensive database of 7,123 thermoelectric compounds, containing key information such as chemical composition, structural detail, seebeck coefficient, electrical and thermal conductivity, power factor, and figure of merit (ZT). We used the GPTArticleExtractor workflow, powered by large language models (LLM), to extract and curate data automatically from the scientific literature published in Elsevier journals. This process enabled the creation of a structured database that addresses the challenges of manual data collection. The open access database could stimulate data-driven research and advance thermoelectric material analysis and discovery.

Database↗

NASA NTRS2026

Turbofan Engine Power Extraction Demonstration Final Report

As GE Aerospace advances toward a revolutionary step change in propulsion efficiency, the integration and demonstration of new engine architectures and technology systems are essential. The NASA Turbofan Engine Power Extraction Demonstration (PEx), conducted through the Hybrid Thermally Efficient Core (HyTEC) project, aims to develop and demonstrate megawatt-class hybrid electric capability on a modern commercial turbofan engine. The hybrid electric system is critical to meeting the needs of the U.S. aviation industry for next-generational propulsion systems with greater efficiency, durability, and range. This supports energy independence and helps ensure the security and resilience of one of America's largest export industries. The PEx project specifically targets three key objectives: mechanically integrating hybrid electric capability into a commercial turbofan engine, integrating electric machine control with turbofan control for advanced power management, and de-risking performance modeling of future hybrid electric architectures. To mature these technologies to Technology Readiness Level (TRL) 6, a series of electric power system component tests and a baseline engine performance test campaign were conducted. These efforts culminated in an integrated hybrid electric turbofan test campaign demonstrating power extraction, power insertion, and power transfer between spools. Tests of the electric power system were completed at GE Aerospace’s Electrical Power Integrated Systems Center in Dayton, Ohio and engine tests were completed at Peebles Test Operation in Peebles, Ohio. Hybrid electric trade studies extended the demonstrated capability to altitude using the validated cycle model from the PEx test campaigns, allowing for comments on expanded mission benefits not demonstrated in the ground campaign. The knowledge gained from PEx also supports GE Aerospace’s Compact Core Demonstrator as part of HyTEC Phase 2 and ultimately informs the implementation of hybrid electric systems in the next generation of GE Aerospace commercial engine products. This report provides a summary of the program background, test campaigns, trade studies, and insights into the technical maturation required to support future commercial products.

Hybrid Electric↗

DOE OSTI2025

Robust and tunable oxide nanoscrolls for solar-driven H 2 generation and storage

Hydrogen gas is a promising alternative to fossil fuels due to its high energy output and environmentally safe byproducts. Various morphologies of photocatalytic materials have been explored for high-efficiency H 2 production, for instance, quasi-1D nanoscroll structures that provide a larger surface-to-volume ratio. Recently, we predicted layer-by-layer formation of stable oxide nanoscrolls directly from dichalcogenide precursors, eliminating the need for costly formation of two-dimensional oxides for a roll-up synthesis of nanoscrolls. Here, in this study, we evaluate the suitability of those oxide nanoscroll materials—MoO 3 , WO 3 , PdO 2 , HfO 2 , and GeO 2 —for solar-driven photocatalytic H 2 production and storage. Using excited state theory coupled with Bethe–Salpeter equation simulations, we discern their electronic and optical properties as a function of interlayer scroll spacing and find them to be highly conducive for solar-driven photocatalysis. Additionally, using ab initio molecular dynamics simulations, we show that they are also suitable for H 2 storage as the nanoscrolls exhibit an effective trapping of hydrogen, even in the presence of defects and vacancies in the oxides. This work thus demonstrates the discovery of robust and tunable oxide nanoscrolls as materials for advancing solar-driven hydrogen technologies.

Chemical compounds↗

DOE OSTI2024

Establishing accretion flares from supermassive black holes as a source of high-energy neutrinos

ABSTRACT The origin of cosmic high-energy neutrinos remains largely unexplained. For high-energy neutrino alerts from IceCube, a coincidence with time-variable emission has been seen for three different types of accreting black holes: (1) a gamma-ray flare from a blazar (TXS 0506+056), (2) an optical transient following a stellar tidal disruption event (TDE; AT2019dsg), and (3) an optical outburst from an active galactic nucleus (AGN; AT2019fdr). For the latter two sources, infrared follow-up observations revealed a powerful reverberation signal due to dust heated by the flare. This discovery motivates a systematic study of neutrino emission from all supermassive black hole with similar dust echoes. Because dust reprocessing is agnostic to the origin of the outburst, our work unifies TDEs and high-amplitude flares from AGN into a population that we dub accretion flares. Besides the two known events, we uncover a third flare that is coincident with a PeV-scale neutrino (AT2019aalc). Based solely on the optical and infrared properties, we estimate a significance of 3.6σ for this association of high-energy neutrinos with three accretion flares. Our results imply that at least ∼10 per cent of the IceCube high-energy neutrino alerts could be due to accretion flares. This is surprising because the sum of the fluence of these flares is at least three orders of magnitude lower compared to the total fluence of normal AGN. It thus appears that the efficiency of high-energy neutrino production in accretion flares is increased compared to non-flaring AGN. We speculate that this can be explained by the high Eddington ratio of the flares.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗