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Non-destructive structural characterization of graphite components using mechanical resonance and deep learning

As compared to conventional nuclear reactors, microreactors have the potential to significantly reduce construction timelines and capital costs, decreasing the barriers for advanced nuclear reactor technologies. However, the lower power output of these microreactors (typically < 20 MWe) creates challenging economics if operation and maintenance costs cannot be sufficiently reduced. The compact size of these designs presents an opportunity for comprehensive in-situ structural health monitoring to provide real-time feedback in order to reduce operational costs associated with maintenance and downtime. Many microreactor concepts use graphite for both in-core neutron moderation and as a structural material, which has typically required some form of periodic and laborious inspection. This report provides a description and assessment of recent work with graphite to couple acoustic-based experimental measurements and characterization with machine learning models to mature structural health monitoring capabilities and generate benefits for the nuclear microreactor industry. With resilient embedded sensors in development in other programs funded by the US Department of Energy’s Office of Nuclear Energy and elsewhere, the work described herein builds upon previously funded efforts to mature non-destructive testing technology that relates measured vibrational signatures to structural changes, using a combination of new experimental measurements and machine learning processing. Building on past successful demonstrations of predictive workflows to identify structural changes in a hexagonal stainless steel test article with excellent acoustic propagation, we first performed baseline characterization on graphite samples with canonical geometries to ensure compatibility and confidence in the applied techniques for a material with distinctly different mechanical properties. In contrast to efforts in previous years, we worked exclusively with unidirectional vibration data that is more comparable to those expected from the existing embedded sensor technologies which are suitable for deployment in a reactor setting. Established acoustic and modern machine-learning-based characterization approaches were applied to the resulting datasets from these simple geometries. Both approaches were found to be highly capable of detecting even small geometric irregularities amongst nominally identical samples. As such, we then moved to testing these approaches for detection of artificial local stress perturbations introduced into a more complex geometry: a hexagonal block with drilled holes. A main outcome of this work is that a generalizable ML workflow can be used to detect and predict the characteristics of small artificial anomalies in a graphite component with a relevant geometry. While this work was performed using surficial vibration data, we expect the approach to be flexible and viable for other monitoring scenarios, such as those with different arrangements or types of sensor arrays. As compared to previously funded efforts, an existing ML workflow based on neural networks was enhanced through the addition of recently developed Fourier neural operators. As applied to previously collected and new vibration datasets, prediction accuracies of anomaly characterizations were greatly improved with minimal added computational cost. As trained on small durations of vibration data (tens of seconds) collected over a realistic number of locations, the model was able to reliably determine the presence of a subtle stress anomaly and begin to provide location estimates. Such an approach is likely to be viable for more relevant reactor damage scenarios for graphite components, such as progressive crack growth or creep.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NGEE Arctic, Canopy Spectral Reflectance, Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska, 2014-2016

Measurements of full-spectrum (i.e. 350-2500 nm) canopy spectral reflectance of Arctic plant species within the BEO, Barrow, Alaska. Spectra were collected using Spectra Vista Corporation (SVC) HR-2014i and Spectral Evolution (SE) PSR+ instruments mounted on a tripod or monopod together with a Spectralon white plate to calibrate each measurement under variable illumination conditions. Data were collected in Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska during the 2014 to 2016 period. Data package includes processed spectra (*.csv) files and original instrument output and processing files (*.zip).The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a 10-year research effort (2012-2022) to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

AI for Extreme Volcanic Climate Forcing and Feedback Forecasting in the 21st century

Focal Areas: Our paradigm-shifting framework will apply machine learning and perform physical analysis of contemporary volcanoes to develop sound forecasts of extreme eruptions in the 21st century and their abrupt drying and cooling impacts on the warming climate. We will also bridge climate data driven regression models and earth system model output to trace teleconnections that exacerbate regional impacts such as Arctic amplification and western US droughts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Spatiotemporal evolution of melt ponds on Arctic sea ice

Melt ponds on sea ice play an important role in the Arctic climate system. Their presence alters the partitioning of solar radiation: decreasing reflection, increasing absorption and transmission to the ice and ocean, and enhancing melt. The spatiotemporal properties of melt ponds thus modify ice albedo feedbacks and the mass balance of Arctic sea ice. The Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition presented a valuable opportunity to investigate the seasonal evolution of melt ponds through a rich array of atmosphere-ice-ocean measurements across spatial and temporal scales. In this study, we characterize the seasonal behavior and variability in the snow, surface scattering layer, and melt ponds from spring melt to autumn freeze-up using in situ surveys and auxiliary observations. We compare the results to satellite retrievals and output from two models: the Community Earth System Model (CESM2) and the Marginal Ice Zone Modeling and Assimilation System (MIZMAS). During the melt season, the maximum pond coverage and depth were 21% and 22 ± 13 cm, respectively, with distribution and depth corresponding to surface roughness and ice thickness. Compared to observations, both models overestimate melt pond coverage in summer, with maximum values of approximately 41% (MIZMAS) and 51% (CESM2). This overestimation has important implications for accurately simulating albedo feedbacks. During the observed freeze-up, weather events, including rain on snow, caused high-frequency variability in snow depth, while pond coverage and depth remained relatively constant until continuous freezing ensued. Both models accurately simulate the abrupt cessation of melt ponds during freeze-up, but the dates of freeze-up differ. MIZMAS accurately simulates the observed date of freeze-up, while CESM2 simulates freeze-up one-to-two weeks earlier. This work demonstrates areas that warrant future observation-model synthesis for improving the representation of sea-ice processes and properties, which can aid accurate simulations of albedo feedbacks in a warming climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Core Model Proposal 397: Update to Hector V3.2.0

Hector V3.2.0 is the version documented in Dorheim et. al (accepted in GMD), the changes between the previous version coupled with GCAM were in response to the reviewer feedback. We corrected aerosol forcing coefficients based on Zelinka et al. (2023), enabled the permafrost module to be on by default, and recalibrated the model. These changes mean that we had to update the hector-gcam.ini file, it also causes some changes in Hector output behavior (described below) which may have implications on GCAM runs. Ultimately Hector is cooler by about 0.15 degrees, although this is scenario dependent.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

CMIP7 Data Request: atmosphere priorities and opportunities

This paper presents a comprehensive overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 7 (CMIP7) request for data unlocking key research avenues in atmospheric science and provides justification for the resources needed to produce this data. Topics within the CMIP7 Atmosphere Theme centre around processes and feedbacks in atmospheric science such as clouds, aerosols and atmospheric chemistry, atmospheric circulation, temperature variability and extremes, radiative forcings, and Earth system model evaluation. These topics are summarised in this paper as scientific “opportunities” which will be realised through CMIP7 experiments and Earth system model outputs. These opportunities were submitted by a thematic group of atmospheric science community representatives combined with an extended consultation process. The production of these variables will close key gaps and uncertainties identified during previous rounds of CMIP, and will be broadly used by scientific, policy, governmental, industry, and other communities that rely on climate model projections for research and decision making, including supporting the 7th Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report (AR7). As an author group, we also reflect on the process used to collate this data request and make recommendations to future CMIP governance on implementing a consultation on this scale in the future.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The Earth Model Column Collaboratory (EMC 2 ) v1.1: an open-source ground-based lidar and radar instrument simulator and subcolumn generator for large-scale models

Abstract. Climate models are essential for our comprehensive understanding of Earth's atmosphere and can provide critical insights on future changes decades ahead. Because of these critical roles, today's climate models are continuously being developed and evaluated using constraining observations and measurements obtained by satellites, airborne, and ground-based instruments. Instrument simulators can provide a bridge between the measured or retrieved quantities and their sampling in models and field observations while considering instrument sensitivity limitations. Here we present the Earth Model Column Collaboratory (EMC2), an open-source ground-based lidar and radar instrument simulator and subcolumn generator, specifically designed for large-scale models, in particular climate models, but also applicable to high-resolution model output. EMC2 provides a flexible framework enabling direct comparison of model output with ground-based observations, including generation of subcolumns that may statistically represent finer model spatial resolutions. In addition, EMC2 emulates ground-based (and air- or space-borne) measurements while remaining faithful to large-scale models' physical assumptions implemented in their cloud or radiation schemes. The simulator uses either single particle or bulk particle size distribution lookup tables, depending on the selected scheme approach, to perform the forward calculations. To facilitate model evaluation, EMC2 also includes three hydrometeor classification methods, namely, radar- and sounding-based cloud and precipitation detection and classification, lidar-based phase classification, and a Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project Observational Simulator Package (COSP) lidar simulator emulator. The software is written in Python, is easy to use, and can be straightforwardly customized for different models, radars, and lidars. Following the description of the logic, functionality, features, and software structure of EMC2, we present a case study of highly supercooled mixed-phase cloud based on measurements from the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE). We compare observations with the application of EMC2 to outputs from four configurations of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) climate model (ModelE3) in single-column model (SCM) mode and from a large-eddy simulation (LES) model. We show that two of the four ModelE3 configurations can form and maintain highly supercooled precipitating cloud for several hours, consistent with observations and LES. While our focus is on one of these ModelE3 configurations, which performed slightly better in this case study, both of these configurations and the LES results post-processed with EMC2 generally provide reasonable agreement with observed lidar and radar variables. As briefly demonstrated here, EMC2 can provide a lightweight and flexible framework for comparing the results of both large-scale and high-resolution models directly with observations, with relatively little overhead and multiple options for achieving consistency with model microphysical or radiation scheme physics.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Data Science Meets Physical Organic Chemistry

At the heart of synthetic chemistry is the holy grail of predictable catalyst design. In particular, researchers involved in reaction development in asymmetric catalysis have pursued a variety of strategies toward this goal. This is driven by both the pragmatic need to achieve high selectivities and the inability to readily identify why a certain catalyst is effective for a given reaction. While empiricism and intuition have dominated the field of asymmetric catalysis since its inception, enantioselectivity offers a mechanistically rich platform to interrogate catalyst-structure response patterns that explain the performance of a particular catalyst or substrate. In the early stages of an asymmetric reaction development campaign, the overarching mechanism of the reaction, catalyst speciation, the turnover limiting step, and many other details are unknown or posited based on related reactions. Considering the unclear details leading to a successful reaction, initial enantioselectivity data are often used to intuitively guide the ultimate direction of optimization. However, if the conditions of the Curtin-Hammett principle are satisfied, then measured enantioselectivity can be directly connected to the ensemble of diastereomeric transition states (TSs) that lead to the enantiomeric products, and the associated free energy difference between competing TSs (ΔΔ G ‡ = - RT ln[( S )/( R )], where ( S ) and ( R ) represent the concentrations of the enantiomeric products). We, and others, speculated that this important piece of information can be leveraged to guide reaction optimization in a quantitative way. Although traditional linear free energy relationships (LFERs), such as Hammett plots, have been used to illuminate important mechanistic features, we sought to develop data science derived tools to expand the power of LFERs in order to describe complex reactions frequently encountered in modern asymmetric catalysis. Specifically, we investigated whether enantioselectivity data from a reaction can be quantitatively connected to the attributes of reaction components, such as catalyst and substrate structural features, to harness data for asymmetric catalyst design. In this context, we developed a workflow to relate computationally derived features of reaction components to enantioselectivity using data science tools. The mathematical representation of molecules can incorporate many aspects of a transformation, such as molecular features from substrate, product, catalyst, and proposed transition states. Statistical models relating these features to reaction outputs can be used for various tasks, such as performance prediction of untested molecules. Perhaps most importantly, statistical models can guide the generation of mechanistic hypotheses that are embedded within complex patterns of reaction responses. Overall, merging traditional physical organic experiments with statistical modeling techniques creates a feedback loop that enables both evaluation of multiple mechanistic hypotheses and future catalyst design. In this Account, we highlight the evolution and application of this approach in the context of a collaborative program based on chiral phosphoric acid catalysts (CPAs) in asymmetric catalysis.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

High power chip-scale laser

The lack of high-power integrated lasers has been limiting silicon photonics. Despite much progress in chip-scale laser integration, power output remains below levels required for key applications due to low energy efficiency at high pumping currents. Here we break this power limitation by coupling a broad-area multimode gain chip to a silicon-nitride ring resonator and single-mode filter. The resulting optical feedback causes the multimode-gain chip to concentrate its power into a single highly coherent mode. Our device produces more than 150 mW of power and 400 kHz linewidth. We achieve these metrics while maintaining a small footprint of 3 mm 2 .

Antman, Yair↗

On the quenching of star formation in observed and simulated central galaxies: evidence for the role of integrated AGN feedback

ABSTRACT In this paper, we investigate how massive central galaxies cease their star formation by comparing theoretical predictions from cosmological simulations: EAGLE, Illustris, and IllustrisTNG with observations of the local Universe from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). Our machine learning (ML) classification reveals supermassive black hole mass (MBH) as the most predictive parameter in determining whether a galaxy is star forming or quenched at redshift z = 0 in all three simulations. This predicted consequence of active galactic nucleus (AGN) quenching is reflected in the observations, where it is true for a range of indirect estimates of MBH via proxies as well as its dynamical measurements. Our partial correlation analysis shows that other galactic parameters lose their strong association with quiescence, once their correlations with MBH are accounted for. In simulations, we demonstrate that it is the integrated power output of the AGN, rather than its instantaneous activity, which causes galaxies to quench. Finally, we analyse the change in molecular gas content of galaxies from star-forming to passive populations. We find that both gas fractions (fgas) and star formation efficiencies (SFEs) decrease upon transition to quiescence in the observations but SFE is more predictive than fgas in the ML passive/star-forming classification. These trends in the SDSS are most closely recovered in IllustrisTNG and are in direct contrast with the predictions made by Illustris. We conclude that a viable AGN feedback prescription can be achieved by a combination of preventative feedback and turbulence injection which together quench star formation in central galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Towards Improving luminosity using optics tuning and data-driven methods

The results of Run 24 experiments at Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC) for improving luminosity using optics tuning are presented in this study. In the first experiment, MADx matching was used to output magnet strengths corresponding to specific s star movements around Interaction Region 8 (IR8). The corresponding Zero Degree Calorimeter (ZDC) signal was measured in place of luminosity, and Bayesian Optimization aids search of optimal movements. It was found that values retrieved from matching were inaccurate, resulting in negative feedback loops. The second experiment focused on calculating accurate s star movements. The matching method was replaced with a linear sensitivity matrix, directly relating optics to power supply, and its null space was used to fit constraints such as hysteresis effects. At the experiment, beam losses were observed at collimators around boundary of IR8, which were fixed for the third experiment. Dynamic mode decomposition was also introduced to improve quality of turn-by-turn (TBT) data as well as accuracy and consistency of optics measurements at IR8. These improvements will be tested in the experiment of next RHIC run for luminosity optimization.

Accelerator Physics↗

Simulated hydrological dynamics and coupled iron redox cycling impact methane production in an Arctic soil: Modeling Archive

This Modeling Archive is in support of an NGEE Arctic publication "Simulated hydrological dynamics and coupled iron redox cycling impact methane production in an Arctic soil" in the Journal of Geophysical Research-Biogeosciences. We simulated biogeochemical cycling in arctic soils using the PFLOTRAN geochemical model combined with measurements from previous NGEE Arctic incubations of polygonal permafrost soils in northern Alaska (Zheng et al., 2018). Simulated iron cycling, carbon dioxide production, and methane production were compared with incubation measurements and the parameterized model was then used to simulate coupled iron and carbon cycling over repeated oxic-anoxic cycles at different levels of carbon substrate availability and pH. The most recent data version (2.0) in the archive incorporates changes to the model and simulations as suggested by reviewers during the manuscript review process. These changes include an updated parameterization of the model; a new set of simulations omitting the iron cycle for direct evaluation of how iron cycle processes affect modeled outcomes; and a set of simulations testing different scenarios of carbon substrate availability in addition to scenarios of initial soil pH. This archive contains simulation code, model output, and analysis code for PFLOTRAN simulations. All scripts are python except the batch script for submitting multiprocessor jobs. Note that the model also requires compiled versions of the Alquimia interface and the NGEE Arctic fork of the PFLOTRAN geochemical simulator (see the README_INSTALL document for basic instructions). The Output directory contains eight data files in netCDF format generated by the model. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a 10-year research effort (2012-2022) to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Development of Control System Functional Capabilities within the IES Plug-and-Play Simulation Environment

The concept of an Integrated Energy System (IES) is meant to combine different energy technologies in synergistic ways to achieve a more secure and economical energy supply. The RAVEN-based HYBRID framework is used to find the optimal installed capacity and the optimal economical dispatch of each component of the IES. A new RAVEN (Risk Analysis Virtual ENvironment) plugin for grid and capacity optimization (HERON) has been developed for optimizing the production variables of the IES given the demand profile. Currently, only the limits that affect the production variables and their corresponding time rates of change are considered (explicit constraints). However, other variables are additionally subject to constraints, but the associated limits are not accounted for (implicit constraints). In particular, for the power dispatch problem, the optimization algorithm takes into account the limits on the electrical power output and the corresponding hourly power variations but does not consider other constraints on process variables whose response effects the service life of the IES. This report describes a scheme that allows accounting for implicit constraints without increasing the size of the optimization problem. The Reference Governor (RG) algorithm is traditionally used for enforcing state and control constraints by modifying the set-point trajectories supplied to the feedback regulators. In our application, the RG is coupled within an iterative loop with the HERON-power dispatcher to generate optimal trajectories that ensure the operational constraints are met. A data-driven procedure to derive a representation of the dynamics of the controlled system was developed. First, the variables that represented the state of the system are selected (PCA-based approach), and then state-space representation matrices are derived from the collected measurements (DMDc algorithm). A preliminary version of the developed workflow based on Linear Time Invariant matrices was assessed by adopting a two-unit test case. More sophisticated versions of this workflow foreseeing the on-line derivation of system matrices will be deployed in FY 2021. Finally, a “plug-and-play” library of controllers and state observers was developed in Dymola. Some aspects of the current configuration of the IES unit components, e.g., the encapsulation of the control schemes into dedicated blocks, are consistent with the “plug-and-play” philosophy. Other features, e.g., the system buses collecting the input and the output variables, are not. For this reason, once listed and described the limits of the current configuration, necessary modifications to the plant model interface are presented. As a test-case, the interfaces of the SES model in the RAVEN-based HYBRID framework were reworked accordingly, and two different control schemes were applied to the same plant model.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Measurement-Based Quantum Thermal Machines with Feedback Control

We investigated coupled-qubit-based thermal machines powered by quantum measurements and feedback. We considered two different versions of the machine: (1) a quantum Maxwell’s demon, where the coupled-qubit system is connected to a detachable single shared bath, and (2) a measurement-assisted refrigerator, where the coupled-qubit system is in contact with a hot and cold bath. In the quantum Maxwell’s demon case, we discuss both discrete and continuous measurements. We found that the power output from a single qubit-based device can be improved by coupling it to the second qubit. We further found that the simultaneous measurement of both qubits can produce higher net heat extraction compared to two setups operated in parallel where only single-qubit measurements are performed. In the refrigerator case, we used continuous measurement and unitary operations to power the coupled-qubit-based refrigerator. We found that the cooling power of a refrigerator operated with swap operations can be enhanced by performing suitable measurements.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

The Water Balance Representation in Urban‐PLUMBER Land Surface Models

Abstract Urban Land Surface Models (ULSMs) simulate energy and water exchanges between the urban surface and atmosphere. However, earlier systematic ULSM comparison projects assessed the energy balance but ignored the water balance, which is coupled to the energy balance. Here, we analyze the water balance representation in 19 ULSMs participating in the Urban‐PLUMBER project using results for 20 sites spread across a range of climates and urban form characteristics. As observations for most water fluxes are unavailable, we examine the water balance closure, flux timing, and magnitude with a score derived from seven indicators expecting better scoring models to capture the latent heat flux more accurately. We find that the water budget is only closed in 57% of the model‐site combinations assuming closure when annual total incoming fluxes (precipitation and irrigation) fluxes are within 3% of the outgoing (all other) fluxes. Results show the timing is better captured than magnitude. No ULSM has passed all water balance indicators for any site. Models passing more indicators do not capture the latent heat flux more accurately refuting our hypothesis. While output reporting inconsistencies may have negatively affected model performance, our results indicate models could be improved by explicitly verifying water balance closure and revising runoff parameterizations. By expanding ULSM evaluation to the water balance and related to latent heat flux performance, we demonstrate the benefits of evaluating processes with direct feedback mechanisms to the processes of interest.

Jongen, H. J.↗

STITCHES: a Python package to amalgamate existing Earth system model output into new scenario realizations

Understanding the interaction between humans and the Earth system is a computationally daunting task, with many possible approaches depending on resources available and questions of interest. For example, state-of-the-art impact models require decade-long time series of relatively high frequency, spatially resolved and often multiple variables representing climatic impact-drivers (Ruane et al., 2022). Most commonly these are derived from the outputs of detailed, computationally expensive Earth System Models (ESMs) run according to a standard, limited set of future scenarios, the latest being the SSP-RCPs run under CMIP6/ScenarioMIP (Eyring et al., 2016; O’Neill et al., 2016). At the time of writing, O’Neill et al. (2016) has been cited more than 1750 times and Eyring et al. (2016) more than 5000 times, highlighting the broad, general applications of this data. Often, however, impact modeling seeks to explore new scenarios that were not part of the ScenarioMIP protocol, and/or needs a larger set of initial condition ensemble members than are typically available to quantify the effects of ESM internal variability. In addition, the recognition that the human and Earth systems are fundamentally intertwined, and may feature potentially significant feedback loops, is making integrated, simultaneous modeling of the coupled human-Earth system increasingly necessary, if computationally challenging with most existing tools (Thornton et al., 2017). For impact modelers, climate model emulators can be the answer to meet both the needs of: 1) creating realizations for novel scenarios and 2) achieving a simplified, computationally tractable representation of ESM behavior in a coupled human-Earth system modeling framework. We proposed a new, comprehensive approach to such emulation of gridded, multivariate ESM outputs for novel scenarios without the computational cost of a full ESM, STITCHES (Tebaldi et al., 2022). The approach outlined in Tebaldi et al. (2022) should be extensible to future CMIP eras, although the STITCHES software at present is strictly focused on CMIP6/ScenarioMIP data hosted on Pangeo (https://gallery.pangeo.io/repos/pangeo-gallery/cmip6/). The corresponding STITCHES Python package uses existing archives of ESMs’ scenario experiments from CMIP6/ScenarioMIP to construct gridded, multivariate realizations of new scenarios provided by reduced complexity climate models (Hartin et al., 2015; Meinshausen et al., 2011; Smith et al., 2018), or to enrich existing initial condition ensembles. Its output provides the same characteristics as the emulated ESM output: multivariate (spanning potentially all variables that the ESM has saved), spatially resolved (down to the native grid of the ESM), and preserving the same high frequency as the original data. A new realization of multiple variables can be generated on the order of minutes with STITCHES, rather than the hours or sometimes days that ESMs require.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Verification and Validation of the Stakeholder Tool for Assessing Radioactive Transportation (START) – 22323

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Integrated Waste Management is planning for the eventual transportation, storage, and disposal of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level radioactive waste (HLW) from nuclear power plant and DOE sites. The Stakeholder Tool for Assessing Radioactive Transportation (START) is a web-based, geospatial decision-support tool developed for evaluating routing options and other aspects of transporting SNF and HLW, covering rail, truck, barge, and intermodal infrastructure and operations in the continental United States. The verification and validation (V&V) process is intended to independently assess START to provide confidence in the ability of START to accurately provide intended results. The V&V process checks the START tool using a variety of methods, ranging from independent hand calculations to comparison of START performance and results to those of other codes. The V&V activity was conducted independently from the START development team with opportunities to provide feedback and collaborate throughout the process. The V&V analyzed attributes of transportation routes produced by START, including route distance and both population and population density captured within buffer zones around routes. Population in the buffer zone, population density in the buffer zone, and route distance were all identified as crucial outputs of the START code and were subject to V&V tasks. Some of the improvements identified through the V&V process were standardizing the underlying population data in START, changing the projection of the population raster data, and changes to the methodology used for population density to improve its applicability for expected users. This collaboration also led to suggested improvements to some of the underlying shape file segments within START. A formal series of test routes went through the V&V process from START version 3.2.1 following the implementation of the recommended improvements to START. The V&V of the buffer zone population and distance reported in START were achieved by utilizing a custom workflow developed in QGIS. This platform was chosen because it is fully independent of START. The buffer zone population and route distances in START showed excellent agreement to independent V&V test results. Over 200 route test cases were run; in all cases, the percent difference in the population within the buffer zone was less than +/- 5%, and the majority of cases were below +/- 1%. These cases were also duplicated in ArcMap, which is Environmental Systems Research Institute’s (ESRI) GIS desktop application. The ArcMap results also show good agreement; however, they cannot be considered independent of START because START also uses ESRI software. The V&V tasks are currently addressing population density and estimated radiation dose in START as well as implementing further automation of the V&V process to allow larger suites of test routes to be run more easily and quickly by less experienced GIS users. These improvements to the V&V process will make it a valuable tool for the development team and the stakeholders so that each new iteration of START can easily be checked for quality and consistency. This paper and presentation will describe the V&V process, findings and implications, and ongoing V&V activities.

START, DOE, Transporation, dose, GIS↗

Avoidance of disruptions on KSTAR due to vertical displacement events via novel real-time stability assessment

Disruption avoidance via the DECAF approach has been achieved on KSTAR using a novel real-time vertical stability assessment and a multiactuator feedback control strategy. The development of disruption avoidance strategies with reactor-relevant reliability is an urgent activity, enabling future fusion power plants. The stability metric employed is based on a new formulation of a vertical force gradient balance metric evaluated across the poloidal cross section of the plasma, with parameters tuned using historical data. Evaluation of this metric on a validation set of 400 recent KSTAR shots indicates >82% of Vertical displacement events can be avoided via feedback control. Essential to its calculation is the two-dimensional toroidal current density distribution in the plasma. Measurement of this profile faster than fully-converged equilibrium reconstructions can deliver is found to improve forecaster performance and is achieved with a surrogate model that takes as input magnetic diagnostic measurements and outputs the current profile on a basis comprising the top principal components of historical current profiles (from past equilibrium reconstructions). This method solves the non-uniqueness problem typically faced when reconstructing current profiles directly from diagnostics, while improving computational time and accuracy. On average, profiles produced by this model reach coefficients of determination of >0.99 with respect to those from equilibrium reconstructions. The avoidance actuators employed include poloidal field coils and an electron cyclotron current drive system. The multiactuator approach, as shown in this first demonstration, allows disruption avoidance while minimizing impact to operational performance. This ability, along with its flexibility and speed, makes this new approach an attractive option for avoiding these types of disruptions in reactors.

Tobin, Matthew [Columbia Univ., New York, NY (Unit↗