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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7

Prediction of the development of islet autoantibodies through integration of environmental, genetic, and metabolic markers

The Environmental Determinants of the Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) study has prospectively followed, from birth, children at increased genetic risk of type 1 diabetes. We evaluated the potential of machine learning to identify new biomarkers that predict imminent (within 6 months) development of persistent islet autoantibodies to insulin, GAD or IA-2 in TEDDY participants through integration of time-invariant risk factors with time-varying metabolomics. The predictive modeling was initiated with over 220 potential biomarkers; through ensemble-based feature evaluation, the optimal model included 42 biomarkers, returning a cross-validated receiver operating characteristic area under the curve of 0.74. The model identified a principal set of 20 time-invariant markers, including 16 single nucleotide polymorphisms and two HLA-DR genotypes, gestational age, and exposure to a prebiotic formula. Integration of the metabolome identified 22 high-priority metabolites and lipids, including adipic acid and ceramide d42:0, that predicted development of islet autoantibodies, dependent upon the time horizon. The majority (86%) of metabolites that predicted development of islet autoantibodies belonged to 3 pathways: lipid oxidation, phospholipase A2 signaling, and pentose phosphate pathway. TEDDY data suggest that these metabolic processes may play a role in triggering islet autoimmunity.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Scalable process for mitigation of laser-damaged potassium dihydrogen phosphate crystal optic surfaces with removal of damaged antireflective coating

Here, we investigate an approach for the recycling of laser-damaged large-aperture deuterated potassium dihydrogen phosphate (DKDP) crystals used for optical switching (KDP) and for frequency conversion (DKDP) in megajoule-class high-power laser systems. The approach consists of micromachining the surface laser damage sites (mitigation), combined with multiple soaks and ultrasonication steps in a coating solvent to remove, synergistically, both the highly adherent machining debris and the laser-damage-affected antireflection coating. We then identify features of the laser-damage-affected coating, such as the “solvent-persistent” coating and the “burned-in” coating, that are difficult to remove by conventional approaches without damaging the surface. We also provide a solution to the erosion problem identified in this work when colloidal coatings are processed during ultrasonication. Finally, we provide a proof of principle of the approach by testing the full process that includes laser damage mitigation of DKDP test parts, coat stripping, reapplication of a new antireflective coat, and a laser damage test demonstrating performance up to at least 12 J/cm 2 at UV wavelengths, which is well above current requirements. Our approach ultimately provides a potential path to a scalable recycling loop for the management of optics in large, high-power laser systems that can reduce cost and extend lifetime of highly valuable and difficult to grow large DKDP crystals.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A Fluorescence‐Based Transient Expression Assay for the Analysis of Upstream Open Reading Frames in Plants

Upstream open reading frames (uORFs) are regulatory elements present in the 5′ leaders of mRNA that can significantly impact downstream gene expression in eukaryotes. In crop engineering, editing of uORFs can provide an avenue to upregulate expression of native genes without the need to add persistent transgenic copies. Even with genome-wide methods to identify translated uORFs such as ribosome profiling, their functional characterization depends on validation through reporter gene assays and mutagenesis studies. Current screening methods for plants use luciferases or protoplasts to measure differential gene expression between wild-type and mutated transcript leaders, which requires tissue processing and/or substrate addition. Here, we present a time- and cost-efficient alternative to investigate transcript leaders by co-expression of two fluorescent proteins in Nicotiana benthamiana leaf tissue and test our assay on genes involved in photoprotection, editing of which could provide a pathway to increase CO 2 assimilation during sun–shade transitions.

Nicotiana benthamiana↗

Synthetic microbial communities: Bridging research and application in second-generation bioenergy feedstock microbiomes

The sustainable production of purpose-grown bioenergy feedstocks is essential in transitioning away from fossil fuels. Synthetic communities (SynComs) are consortia of microorganisms that can be used as biological interventions to support objectives like plant growth and stress tolerance. This review examines the state of knowledge regarding microbiomes and SynComs of second-generation bioenergy feedstocks, focusing on the rhizosphere. We first provide an overview of second-generation feedstocks, including switchgrass (Panicum virgatum), miscanthus (Miscanthus × giganteus), sorghum (Sorghum spp.), sugarcane (Saccharum spp.), and poplar (Populus spp.), and summarize our current understanding of their plant-soil-microbiome ecology. We next discuss considerations in the objectives, design, and evaluation of SynComs to enhance feedstock production, and then critically review the literature around their use. Our literature analysis revealed that SynCom performance varied substantially between controlled pilot experiments and field trials, possibly due to system complexity that could not be fully considered in their design and pilot evaluation. We identified a gap in the use of SynComs to support the unique sustainability objectives of biofuel feedstock agriculture, presenting an opportunity to leverage these additional microbial traits in SynCom designs. Finally, we emphasize the importance of targeted research to identify the ecological principles that govern the assembly, activation, and persistence of microbes in the feedstock rhizosphere, thereby enhancing our capacity to manage microbiomes under diverse environmental conditions and ensure their functionality. Beyond biofuels, SynComs are a promising microbiome management strategy for crop production; however, an ecologically informed design and evaluation of SynComs are advised.

SynCom↗

Post-Combat-Injury Opioid Prescription and Alcohol Use Disorder in the Military

Previous studies have identified combat exposure and combat traumatic experience as problematic drinking risk factors. Increasing evidence suggests that opioid use increases the risk of alcohol use disorder. This study investigated the association between opioid prescription use after injury and (1) alcohol use disorder and (2) severity of alcohol use disorder among deployed military servicemembers. Deidentified health records data of 9,029 deployed servicemembers from a retrospective cohort study were analyzed. Data were randomly selected from the Department of Defense Trauma Registry and included servicemembers with combat injuries during deployment in Iraq or Afghanistan (2002–2016). Pharmacy records and International Classification of Diseases, Ninth and Tenth Revision diagnosis codes were used. Three groups were identified (no opioid prescription use, nonpersistent opioid prescription use, and persistent opioid prescription use) and were compared on the basis of alcohol use disorder risk using Cox proportional hazard models. Data analyses were performed in 2021. Of the 9,029 servicemembers with combat injury, 2,262 developed alcohol use disorder (1,322 developed severe alcohol use disorder). Compared with no opioid prescription use, increased alcohol use disorder risk was associated with persistent opioid prescription use, with a hazard ratio of 1.13 (95% CI=1.02, 1.26). After covariate adjustment, increased risk remained statistically significant (hazards ratio=1.24; 95% CI=1.10, 1.39). There was no significant difference in alcohol use disorder risk between no opioid prescription use and nonpersistent opioid prescription use. The risk of severe alcohol use disorder did not vary by opioid use among servicemembers with alcohol use disorder diagnosis. Furthermore, the findings of the study suggest that the incidence of alcohol use disorder was higher among injured servicemembers with persistent opioid prescription use than among those without opioid use. If replicated in prospective studies, the findings highlight the need for clinicians to consider the current and history of alcohol use of patients in initiating treatment involving opioids.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Bacillus licheniformis in geogenic dust induces inflammation in respiratory epithelium

Highlights: • Earth-derived geogenic dust exposure can lead to infections in the human airway. • Spore-forming Bacillus licheniformis is present in rural geogenic PM{sub 10.} • Heat-treating geogenic dust removes its stimulatory effects on airway epithelium. • High airway IL-6 and IL-8 levels are induced by live Bacillus licheniformis. • Bacillus licheniformis may exacerbate infections associated with dust exposure. Exposure to environmental geogenic (or earth-derived) dust can lead to more frequent and severe infections in the human airway. Particulate matter < 10 µm (PM{sub 10}) is the component of air pollution that is commonly associated with the exacerbation of respiratory diseases. We have previously demonstrated that mice exposed to geogenic dust PM{sub 10} experienced an exacerbation of inflammatory responses to influenza A virus. Whether geogenic dust PM{sub 10} also exacerbates respiratory bacterial infection is not yet known, nor are the components of the dust that drive these responses. We treated airway bronchial epithelial cells (NuLi-1) with UV-irradiated geogenic dust PM{sub 10} from six remote Western Australian towns. High levels of IL-6 and IL-8 production were observed, as well as persistent microbial growth. 16 S rRNA sequencing of the growth identified the microbe as Bacillus licheniformis, a spore-forming, environmentally abundant bacterium. We next investigated the interaction of B. licheniformis with respiratory epithelium in vitro to determine whether this exacerbated infection with a bacterial respiratory pathogen (non-typeable Haemophilus influenzae, NTHi). Heat treatment (100 °C) of all PM{sub 10} samples eliminated B. licheniformis contamination and reduced epithelial inflammatory responses, suggesting that heat-labile and/or microbial factors were involved in the host response to geogenic dust PM{sub 10}. We then exposed NuLi-1 epithelium to increasing doses of the isolated Bacillus licheniformis (multiplicity of infection of 10:1, 1:1 or 0.1:1 bacteria: cells) for 1, 3, and 24 h. B. licheniformis and NTHi infection (association and invasion) was assessed using a standard gentamicin survival assay, and epithelial release of IL-6 and IL-8 was measured using a bead based immunoassay. B. licheniformis was cytotoxic to NuLi-1 cells at 24 h. At 3 h post-challenge, B. licheniformis elicited high IL-6 and IL-8 inflammatory responses from NuLi-1 cells compared with cells treated with heat-treated geogenic dust PM{sub 10} (p < 0.0001). Whilst treatment of cells with B. licheniformis increased inflammation, this did not make the cells more susceptible to NTHi infection. This study highlights that geogenic dust PM{sub 10} can harbour viable bacterial spores that induce inflammation in respiratory epithelium. The impact on respiratory health from inhalation of bacterial spores in PM{sub 10} in arid environments may be underestimated. Further investigation into the contribution of B. licheniformis and the wider dust microbiome to respiratory infection is warranted.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Imaging Domain Walls in van der Waals Ferroelectrics Using Tip-Enhanced Second Harmonic Generation

van der Waals ferroelectrics have captured significant interest for applications in novel memory and neuromorphic computing devices. Within these materials, interfaces between regions of different ferroelectric polarizations (i.e., domain walls) exhibit distinctive behaviors. Characterization of these behaviors remains a challenge, as domain wall thickness resides at the nanoscale. Using tip-enhanced second harmonic generation (TESHG), we demonstrate nanoscale imaging of domain walls in 2D ferroelectric α-In 2 Se 3 . With a narrow-band near-IR laser, we take advantage of high-wavelength, off-resonant signal enhancement to generate robust and reproducible TESHG. In conclusion, a 16 nm spatial resolution is achieved, and we identify spectral features suggesting that nonlocal effects from domain walls persist nanometers into adjacent domains.

Mantilla, Alexander B. C. [Washington State Univ.,↗

An Efficient Storage-Driven Machine Learning Model for Performance in the Era of Multimodal Scientific Data

Scientific workflows are increasingly relying on machine learning (ML), simulation, and hybrid techniques to predict, understand, and optimize the behavior of complex experiments. High-performance computing has greatly improved researchers’ ability to acquire diverse data modalities in these workflows. Recent studies suggest that the performance of machine learning models can be improved by integrating data from various sources. Unfortunately, these workloads pose unprecedent pressure on the network storage to meet the demands associated with accessing these multimodal data. To mitigate the impact of intensive IO, we propose a solution that utilizes a multi-tier High-Performance Computing (HPC) distributed storage and data processing framework, placing computation where the data resides for better performance. By adopting this project, the scientific community will gain new opportunities to explore multimodal storage-driven possibilities, integrating multiple scientific data sources with advanced streaming frameworks. Additionally, our framework effectively utilizes computing resources and bridges the gaps identified by HPC experts. Our proposed approach tackles scalability and persistence challenges by leveraging native persistency, which has posed difficulties in traditional approaches. Furthermore, we seek to enhance fault-tolerance and load-balance of computations by leveraging real-time streaming in diverse scientific computing environments, thereby propelling advanced scientific computing research into the next generation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Thermostatic Radiator Valve Evaluation and Demonstration

A large stock of multifamily buildings in the Northeast and Midwest uses hot water or steam for space heating. Typically, residents do not pay for heat directly (i.e., heating fuel serves a central plant and use is not submetered). Losses from these systems are typically high, and a significant number of apartments are overheated much of the time. This is often evidenced by open windows on winter days. Controls and distribution are often faulty, and improving them can be more cost effective than replacing boilers. Thermostatic radiator valves (TRVs), which have been in use for many decades, are one potential strategy to combat this problem. They are commonly used in Europe and in other markets such as commercial buildings, but have not been widely accepted by the residential retrofit market in the northeastern United States. Anecdotal evidence suggests that heating systems engineers and contractors have a variety of opinions about their effectiveness, illustrating a lack of consensus on this potentially important energy efficiency measure. A review of the limited available literature revealed that, in one study, heating fuel savings as high as 15% was achieved through TRV retrofits. In this project, the U.S. Department of Energy Building America team, Advanced Residential Integrated Energy Solutions, sought to better understand the current usage of TRVs by key market players in steam and hot water heating and to conduct limited experiments on the effectiveness of new and old TRVs as a means of controlling space temperatures and reducing heating fuel consumption. The project included a survey of industry professionals, a field experiment comparing old and new TRVs, and cost-benefit modeling analysis using BEopt (Building Energy Optimization software). Radiator and apartment space temperature data were collected and analyzed for two similar apartment units in a building that underwent a one-pipe steam TRV retrofit. Space temperature comparisons were made across the pre- and post-TRV installation heating periods and between rooms equipped with old or new TRVs in an attempt to show the comparative effectiveness of each vintage of TRV. Analyses of the heating fuel utility bills before and after the building-wide TRV installation were conducted to quantify potential savings. The results of the field experiment and utility bill analysis did not show energy savings at either the unit or the building-wide level. The results provided inconclusive answers to the original study questions but provided valuable insight into common steam system imbalance and resident behavior issues that are critical to address in conjunction with TRV retrofits. Specific issues identified included steam distribution imbalance, possible TRV sensor location issues, a persistent window-opening habit, and a failure to optimize the boiler control set points as part of the TRV retrofit. The lack of heating fuel savings underscored the need to include whole steam system commissioning alongside or as a prerequisite to TRVs. Failed air vents and uneven steam main venting are critical to address either in conjunction with or before a TRV installation. Monitoring existing space temperatures before a retrofit strategy is chosen would allow the consultant and building owner to better assess the potential benefits of a whole-building TRV retrofit, selective installation of TRVs in some units, or simply balancing the steam distribution venting. Further gaps in the understanding of underlying processes that allow TRVs to function effectively were also identified and are presented as opportunities for future research.

Array↗

Patterns of gene expression associated with recovery and injury in heat-stressed rats

Background: The in vivo gene response associated with hyperthermia is poorly understood. Here, we perform a global, multiorgan characterization of the gene response to heat stress using an in vivo conscious rat model. Results: We heated rats until implanted thermal probes indicated a maximal core temperature of 41.8°C (T c,Max ). We then compared transcriptomic profiles of liver, lung, kidney, and heart tissues harvested from groups of experimental animals at T c,Max , 24 hours, and 48 hours after heat stress to time-matched controls kept at an ambient temperature. Cardiac histopathology at 48 hours supported persistent cardiac injury in three out of six animals. Microarray analysis identified 78 differentially expressed genes common to all four organs at T c,Max . Self-organizing maps identified gene-specific signatures corresponding to protein-folding disorders in heat-stressed rats with histopathological evidence of cardiac injury at 48 hours. Quantitative proteomics analysis by iTRAQ (isobaric tag for relative and absolute quantitation) demonstrated that differential protein expression most closely matched the transcriptomic profile in heat-injured animals at 48 hours. Calculation of protein supersaturation scores supported an increased propensity of proteins to aggregate for proteins that were found to be changing in abundance at 24 hours and in animals with cardiac injury at 48 hours, suggesting a mechanistic association between protein misfolding and the heat-stress response. Conclusions: Pathway analyses at both the transcript and protein levels supported catastrophic deficits in energetics and cellular metabolism and activation of the unfolded protein response in heat-stressed rats with histopathological evidence of persistent heat injury, providing the basis for a systems-level physiological model of heat illness and recovery.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Data for Transposon Signatures of Allopolyploid Genome Evolution

Hybridization brings together chromosome sets from two or more distinct progenitor species. Genome duplication associated with hybridization, or allopolyploidy, allows these chromosome sets to persist as distinct subgenomes during subsequent meioses. Here, we present a general method for identifying the subgenomes of a polyploid based on shared ancestry as revealed by the genomic distribution of repetitive elements that were active in the progenitors. This subgenome-enriched transposable element signal is intrinsic to the polyploid, allowing broader applicability than other approaches that depend on the availability of sequenced diploid relatives. We develop the statistical basis of the method, demonstrate its applicability in the well-studied cases of tobacco, cotton, and Brassica napus, and apply it to several cases: allotetraploid cyprinids, allohexaploid false flax, and allooctoploid strawberry. These analyses provide insight into the origins of these polyploids, revise the subgenome identities of strawberry, and provide perspective on subgenome dominance in higher polyploids.

Genomics↗

Large electron-phonon drag asymmetry and reverse heat flow in the topological semimetal θ-TaN

A broad range of unusual transport behaviors have been discovered in topological semimetals. However, to date, the effect on the thermopower from intrinsic momentum exchange between electrons and phonons has received little attention. Here we report that huge electron-phonon drag enhancements of the thermopower of the to- pological semimetal, θ-phase tantalum nitride (θ-TaN), can occur that persist even up to room temperature. Our first principles calculations also identify a surprising asymmetry in which the large drag-enhanced thermopowers found slightly above the material’s chemical potential disappear just below it. The large thermopower en- hancements result from anomalous drag contributions from high frequency acoustic phonons with unusually small decay rates. The apparent vanishing drag results from (i) the emergence of an exceptionally high electrical conductivity promoted by the steep linear electronic dispersions extending below one of the topological nodal points; (ii) a remarkable cancellation in which momentum transferred from a charge current creates oppositely directed phonon heat currents of nearly equal magnitude, thereby masking the drag contributions. This extraordinary transport behavior is a consequence of an unusual interplay between intrinsic electron and phonon material properties in θ-TaN. Overall, our work gives new insights into the fundamental physical properties of coupled electron-phonon systems and motivates further exploration of drag effects in semimetals.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Coherent and Incoherent Coupling Dynamics between Neutral and Charged Excitons in Monolayer MoSe 2

The optical properties of semiconducting transition metal dichalcogenides are dominated by both neutral excitons (electron–hole pairs) and charged excitons (trions) that are stable even at room temperature. While trions directly influence charge transport properties in optoelectronic devices, excitons may be relevant through exciton–trion coupling and conversion phenomena. Here in this work, we reveal the coherent and incoherent nature of exciton–trion coupling and the relevant time scales in monolayer MoSe 2 using optical two-dimensional coherent spectroscopy. Coherent interaction between excitons and trions is definitively identified as quantum beating of cross peaks in the spectra that persists for a few hundred femtoseconds. For longer times up to 10 ps, surprisingly, the relative intensity of the cross peaks increases, which is attributed to incoherent energy transfer likely due to phonon-assisted up-conversion and down-conversion processes that are efficient even at cryogenic temperature.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Thermally Insulating, Thermal Shock Resistant Calcium Aluminate Phosphate Cement Composites for Reservoir Thermal Energy Storage

This paper presents the use of hydrophobic silica aerogel (HSA) and hydrophilic fly ash cenosphere (FCS) aggregates for improvements in the thermal insulating and mechanical properties of 100- and 250 °C-autoclaved calcium aluminate phosphate (CaP) cement composites reinforced with micro-glass (MGF) and micro-carbon (MCF) fibers for deployment in medium- (100 °C) and high-temperature (250 °C) reservoir thermal energy storage systems. The following six factors were assessed: (1) Hydrothermal stability of HSA; (2) Pozzolanic activity of the two aggregates and MGF in an alkali cement environment; (3) CaP cement slurry heat release during hydration and chemical reactions; (4) Composite phase compositions and phase transitions; (5) Mechanical behavior; (6) Thermal shock (TS) resistance at temperature gradients of 150 and 225 °C. The results showed that hydrophobic trimethylsilyl groups in trimethylsiloxy-linked silica aerogel structure were susceptible to hydrothermal degradation at 250 °C. This degradation was followed by pozzolanic reactions (PR) of HSA, its dissolution, and the formation of a porous microstructure that caused a major loss in the compressive strength of the composites at 250 °C. The pozzolanic activities of FCS and MGF were moderate, and they offered improved interfacial bonding at cement-FCS and cement-MGF joints through a bridging effect by PR products. Despite the PR of MGF, both MGF and MCF played an essential role in minimizing the considerable losses in compressive strength, particularly in toughness, engendered by incorporating weak HSA. As a result, a FCS/HSA ratio of 90/10 in the CaP composite system was identified as the most effective hybrid insulating aggregate composition, with a persistent compressive strength of more than 7 MPa after three TS tests at a 150 °C temperature gradient. This composite displayed thermal conductivity of 0.28 and 0.35 W/mK after TS with 225 and 150 °C thermal gradients, respectively. These values, below the TC of water (TC water = 0.6 W/mK), were measured under water-saturated conditions for applications in underground reservoirs. However, considering the hydrothermal disintegration of HSA at 250 °C, these CaP composites have potential applications for use in thermally insulating, thermal shock-resistant well cement in a mid-temperature range (100 to 175 °C) reservoir thermal energy storage system.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

PERSISTENCE MAPPING USING EUV SOLAR IMAGER DATA

We describe a simple image processing technique that is useful for the visualization and depiction of gradually evolving or intermittent structures in solar physics extreme-ultraviolet imagery. The technique is an application of image segmentation, which we call “Persistence Mapping,” to isolate extreme values in a data set, and is particularly useful for the problem of capturing phenomena that are evolving in both space and time. While integration or “time-lapse” imaging uses the full sample (of size N ), Persistence Mapping rejects ( N − 1)/ N of the data set and identifies the most relevant 1/ N values using the following rule: if a pixel reaches an extreme value, it retains that value until that value is exceeded. The simplest examples isolate minima and maxima, but any quantile or statistic can be used. This paper demonstrates how the technique has been used to extract the dynamics in long-term evolution of comet tails, erupting material, and EUV dimming regions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Carbon nanotube biocompatibility in plants is determined by their surface chemistry

Abstract Background Agriculture faces significant global challenges including climate change and an increasing food demand due to a growing population. Addressing these challenges will require the adoption of transformative innovations into biotechnology practice, such as nanotechnology. Recently, nanomaterials have emerged as unmatched tools for their use as biosensors, or as biomolecule delivery vehicles. Despite their increasingly prolific use, plant-nanomaterial interactions remain poorly characterized, drawing into question the breadth of their utility and their broader environmental compatibility. Results Herein, we characterize the response of Arabidopsis thaliana to single walled carbon nanotube (SWNT) exposure with two different surface chemistries commonly used for biosensing and nucleic acid delivery: oligonucleotide adsorbed-pristine SWNTs, and polyethyleneimine-SWNTs loaded with plasmid DNA (PEI-SWNTs), both introduced by leaf infiltration. We observed that pristine SWNTs elicit a mild stress response almost undistinguishable from the infiltration process, indicating that these nanomaterials are well-tolerated by the plant. However, PEI-SWNTs induce a much larger transcriptional reprogramming that involves stress, immunity, and senescence responses. PEI-SWNT-induced transcriptional profile is very similar to that of mutant plants displaying a constitutive immune response or treated with stress-priming agrochemicals. We selected molecular markers from our transcriptomic analysis and identified PEI as the main cause of this adverse reaction. We show that PEI-SWNT response is concentration-dependent and, when persistent over time, leads to cell death. We probed a panel of PEI variant-functionalized SWNTs across two plant species and identified biocompatible SWNT surface functionalizations. Conclusions While SWNTs themselves are well tolerated by plants, SWNTs surface-functionalized with positively charged polymers become toxic and produce cell death. We use molecular markers to identify more biocompatible SWNT formulations. Our results highlight the importance of nanoparticle surface chemistry on their biocompatibility and will facilitate the use of functionalized nanomaterials for agricultural improvement. Graphical Abstract

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Quantifying streamflow regime behavior and its sensitivity to demand

This paper presents a new framework for quantitatively identifying, characterizing and analyzing systematic hydrological cycles resulting from streamflow variability in a way that integrates water supply and water demand. The hydrological cycles in question are measures of the most severe drought and pluvial events in a historical record of streamflow, along with their respective durations. The metrics developed here to quantify such episodes are based on an extended sequent peak algorithm that tracks the dynamic shifts in hydrological behavior of streamflow by accounting for water supply and demand with respect to streamflow. In the interest of being able to analyze the largest possible scope of hydrological cycles and behavior, we apply the quantitative methods developed in this paper to streamflow reconstructions in the Upper Missouri River Basin (UMRB) as a case study. We find that the duration of dry periods increase conspicuously as a function of increasing demand levels, the duration of pluvial events decrease as a function of increasing demand levels, and that the general tendency is for streamflow gauges on or near the main stem of the river to have shorter dry spell durations and typically lower drought severity. On the other hand, being on or near the main stem tends to result in longer-duration pluvial events, though these pluvials are typically less severe than those off the main stem. Persistence and spatial variability of streamflow reconstructions were also analyzed to shed further light on the spatial patterns identified earlier, and to see if this variability and persistence may have an influence on the behavior of the streamflow as quantified by the metrics defined in this paper. Finally, it was found that there is a stochastic dependence between the length of a drought and the time to recovery from that drought, and this dependence is used to create simple conditional probability curves to help water managers prepare for future extreme events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantitative and interpretable order parameters for phase transitions from persistent homology

Here, we apply modern methods in computational topology to the task of discovering and characterizing phase transitions. As illustrations, we apply our method to four two-dimensional lattice spin models: the Ising, square ice, XY, and fully frustrated XY models. In particular, we use persistent homology, which computes the births and deaths of individual topological features as a coarse-graining scale or sublevel threshold is increased, to summarize multiscale and high-point correlations in a spin configuration. We employ vector representations of this information called persistence images to formulate and perform the statistical task of distinguishing phases. For the models we consider, a simple logistic regression on these images is sufficient to identify the phase transition. Interpretable order parameters are then read from the weights of the regression. This method suffices to identify magnetization, frustration, and vortex-antivortex structure as relevant features for phase transitions in our models. We also define “persistence” critical exponents and study how they are related to those critical exponents usually considered.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗