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DOE OSTI2026

A Framework for Parametric and Predictive Uncertainty Quantification in the E3SM Land Model: Assessing Site and Observable Generalizability

Quantifying parametric uncertainty using observations from individual sites provides a critical foundation for Earth system modeling, serving as a necessary first step before scaling up to regional or global applications. This study introduces a novel computational framework designed to enhance model predictability by reducing parametric uncertainty and assessing site and observable generalizability using various observational constraints. The framework integrates five components: Model Simulation, Statistical Emulation, Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA), Model Calibration, and Model Prediction. Using the E3SM land model, we simulated site-level land-atmosphere carbon and energy fluxes from 2003 to 2007 across five evergreen needleleaf FLUXNET sites, perturbing 26 vegetation-related model parameters. Gaussian process emulators were employed to expedite GSA and model calibration. Four critical parameters that strongly influence selected land-atmosphere fluxes were identified by GSA. Bayesian approaches were used to infer parameter probability distributions leveraging synthetic data and FLUXNET observations. The results reveal that posterior parameter distributions vary significantly across different sites and observables within the same plant functional type. Probabilistic predictions indicate that parameters calibrated at one site can enhance predictive accuracy at other sites, although site heterogeneity may sometimes outweigh parametric uncertainty. Additionally, the probabilistic predictions demonstrate that calibration for one variable can also improve predictability for other variables, thereby maximizing predictive capabilities with limited observations. This framework provides a powerful approach for reducing parametric uncertainty in Earth system models and deepening our understanding of carbon dynamics and energy cycles. Its adaptability makes it a valuable tool for broader applications in Earth system modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Pressure-Gradient-Based RANS Model for Predicting Separation in Transitional and Turbulent Flows

Predicting flow separation poses a significant challenge for RANS models, particularly in transitional flows over airfoils. We propose a novel improvement to RANS models to predict incipient separation in both transitional and fully turbulent flows. Our approach modifies the eddy viscosity model in regions indicated by a pressure-gradient criterion that accounts for intermittency - determining whether the boundary layer is laminar or turbulent. This model demonstrates robust generalization across various airfoil shapes and Reynolds numbers. Applied to the NREL Phase VI wind turbine rotor, our model shows improved aerodynamic performance predictions compared to the baseline RANS model.

k-omega SST↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Fast, Accurate Prediction for System-Wide Damage Due to Dynamic Wind Loading

The complex relationship between photovoltaic (PV) hardware configurations, overall system dynamics, and turbulent aerodynamic phenomena generates highly unsteady, non-uniform loads that can lead to damaging instabilities. These effects may result in glass breakage, cell cracking, and structural failures in frames and mounting systems, even under moderate wind conditions. Addressing industry concerns about premature system failures in field conditions deemed survivable, our research aims to develop a fast and accurate predictive model for system damage. This model integrates configurable hardware choices with advanced simulation tools to represent the overall system-specific dynamics effectively. Using this model, we predict responses under varying weather conditions and hardware setups, translating these predictions into pre-trained surrogate models capable of accurately identifying failure risks and rapidly testing new system hardening measures. In this presentation, we will showcase preliminary results in capturing system dynamics through our customizable library of PV hardware configurations. Additionally, we will highlight how these new tools build upon PVade's established wind load modeling capabilities and foster the development of advanced AI/ML surrogates for improving system robustness.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Smart culture medium optimization for recombinant protein production: Experimental, modeling, and AI/ML-driven strategies

Recombinant protein production (RPP) is central to biotechnology, where recombinant proteins are used as either end products or catalysts in the synthesis of chemicals, fuels, and materials. Among the major cost drivers, culture medium plays a pivotal role in determining protein yield and quality. This review presents a comprehensive perspective on the critical stages of “smart” culture medium optimization: planning, screening, modeling, optimization, and validation. In the planning stage, we examine the nutritional and energetic roles of medium components, including carbon, nitrogen, amino acids, salts, and trace metals, and their impacts on culture parameters such as pH, oxidative state, and osmolality. We highlight the variability in trace metal content due to water sources, culture vessels, and raw materials, which can substantially influence RPP. The screening stage covers Design of Experiments (DoE) approaches, assessing their theoretical basis, implementation, and limitations. For modeling, we describe methods that integrate experimental data to develop predictive models for smart medium formulation. Model-based optimization strategies can then be employed to select optimal media compositions for a given application. The validation stage aims to evaluate model predictions and provide feedback for model training and refinement. Finally, we survey mechanistic and artificial intelligence/machine learning (AI/ML)-driven models as integrated, transformational tools for predictive modeling of bioprocess conditions, nutrient availability, cellular metabolism, and protein quality, with the goal of optimizing culture media to enhance protein yields while reducing costs and environmental impact. We conclude by addressing the challenges of translating laboratory-scale medium optimization to industrial-scale settings and exploring future AI/ML-driven approaches that may overcome current bottlenecks and accelerate medium design for RPP. Overall, this review provides a unified framework for advancing smart medium design in RPP.

Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning (AI/ML)↗

DOE OSTI2026

REV-INR: Regularized Evidential Implicit Neural Representation for Uncertainty-Aware Volume Visualization

Applications of Implicit Neural Representations (INRs) have emerged as a promising deep learning approach for compactly representing large volumetric datasets. These models can act as surrogates for volume data, enabling efficient storage and on-demand reconstruction via model predictions. However, conventional deterministic INRs only provide value predictions without insights into the model’s prediction uncertainty or the impact of inherent noisiness in the data. This limitation can lead to unreliable data interpretation and visualization due to prediction inaccuracies in the reconstructed volume. Identifying erroneous results extracted from model-predicted data may be infeasible, as raw data may be unavailable due to its large size. To address this challenge, we introduce REV-INR, Regularized Evidential Implicit Neural Representation, which learns to predict data values accurately along with the associated coordinate-level data uncertainty and model uncertainty using only a single forward pass of the trained REV-INR during inference. By comprehensively comparing and contrasting REV-INR with existing well-established deep uncertainty estimation methods, we show that REV-INR achieves the best volume reconstruction quality with robust data (aleatoric) and model (epistemic) uncertainty estimates using the fastest inference time. Consequently, we demonstrate that REV-INR facilitates assessment of the reliability and trustworthiness of the extracted isosurfaces and volume visualization results, enabling analyses to be solely driven by model-predicted data.

Saklani, Shanu [Indian Institute of Technology, Ka↗

DOE OSTI2025

A mixture parameterized biologically based dosimetry model to predict body burdens of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in developmental zebrafish toxicity assays

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are a group of environmental toxicants found ubiquitously as complex mixtures in human-impacted environments. Developmental zebrafish exposures have been used widely to study PAH toxicity, but most studies report nominal exposure concentrations. Nominal exposure concentrations can be unreliable dose metrics due to differences in toxicant bioavailability resulting from disparate exposure methodologies and chemical properties. Toxicokinetic modeling can predict toxicant tissue doses to facilitate comparison between exposures of different chemicals, methodologies, and biological models. We parameterize a biologically based dosimetry model for developmental zebrafish toxicity assays for 9 PAHs. The model was optimized with measurements from media, tissue, and plastic plate walls throughout a static developmental exposure to a mixture of 10 PAHs of high abundance within the Portland Harbor Superfund Site. Plate binding, volatilization, zebrafish permeability, and tissue—media partitioning coefficients vary widely between PAHs. Model predictions accounted for 83% and 54% of 48 hpf body burdens within a factor of 2 resulting from exposures to mixtures and individual PAHs, respectively. Accounting for solubility significantly improves model performance. Competition for active sites in metabolizing enzymes may change biotransformation kinetics between individual PAH and mixture exposures. Area under the curve estimations of concentrations in zebrafish resulted in altered hazard rankings from nominal exposure concentrations. Future work will be oriented to generalizing the model to other PAHs. This PAH dosimetry model improves the interpretability of developmental zebrafish toxicity assays by providing time-resolved body burdens from nominal exposure concentrations.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

DOE OSTI2026

Revisiting the validity of eddy viscosity models for predicting airflow over water waves

In this study, we revisit the validity of eddy viscosity models for predicting wave-induced airflow disturbances over ocean surface waves. We first derive a turbulence curvilinear model for the phase-averaged Navier–Stokes equations, extending the work of Cao, Deng & Shen (2020 J. Fluid Mech. 901, A27), by incorporating turbulence stress terms previously neglected in the linearised viscous curvilinear model. To verify our formulation, we perform a priori tests by numerically solving the model using mean wind and turbulence stress profiles from large-eddy simulations (LES) of airflow over waves across various wave ages. Results show that including turbulence stress terms improves wave-induced airflow predictions compared with the previous viscous curvilinear model. We further show that using a standard mixing-length eddy viscosity yields inaccurate predictions at certain wave ages, as it fails to capture wave-induced turbulence, which fundamentally differs from mean shear-driven turbulence. The LES data show that accurate representations of wave-induced stresses require a complex-valued eddy viscosity. The maximum magnitude of this eddy viscosity scales as ∼𝑢 𝜏 ⁢𝜁 𝑖𝑛𝑛𝑒𝑟 , where 𝑢 𝜏 is the friction velocity and 𝜁 𝑖𝑛𝑛𝑒𝑟 is the inner-layer thickness, the height at which the eddy-turnover time matches the wave advection time scale. This scaling aligns with the prediction by Belcher & Hunt (1993 J. Fluid Mech. 251, 109–148). Overall, the findings demonstrate that traditional eddy viscosity models are inadequate for capturing wave-induced turbulence. More sophisticated turbulence models are essential for the accurate prediction of airflow disturbances and form drag in wind–wave interaction models.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2025

Mapping tree height in complex terrain of northern China using ultra-high-resolution images

Tree height is a key parameter for estimating forest biomass and carbon sequestration. In recent years, notable progress has been made in mapping tree height using satellite imagery. However, existing tree height products show low accuracy in mountainous and complex terrains, and few studies typically addressed tree height estimations in mountain areas. This study examines the Mentougou district of Beijing, China, characterized by complex terrain and mountainous landscapes. We analyzed two methods for estimating tree height: one using only spectral features and another combining spectral features with topographic factors (elevation, slope, aspect). We used 3-m resolution PlanetScope 8-band multispectral imagery, with 710 field-measured individual tree heights averaged to obtain 471 pixel-level tree height values as ground-truth, to develop tree height prediction models using eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Random Forest (RF), and Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM) models. The results show that the XGBoost model consistently presented the highest accuracy for both methods evaluated. Specifically, the XGBoost model that combined spectral data with elevation and slope variables with an R² of 0.75 and an RMSE of 2.69 m. Using the XGBoost model, we generated the tree height map for the Mentougou area at 3 m resolution, showing tree heights ranging from 0.5 to 30.4 m, and the model’s prediction error standard deviations ranged from 2.50 to 4.71 m, indicating reliable performance across varied terrain. Additionally, we compared and evaluated the global tree height products, identifying limitations in the accuracy within complex terrains. This study demonstrates the potential for accurately predicting tree heights by combining high-resolution multispectral satellites with a terrain factor modeling approach.

Complex terrain↗

DOE OSTI2025

Deep Learning Approaches for Predicting the Surface Tension of Ionic Liquids

Ionic liquids (ILs) are a novel class of solvents that have attracted significant attention due to their unique and tunable properties. Among their physiochemical characteristics, surface tension plays a critical role in various industrial applications including electrolytes, heat transfer fluids, and separation processes. However, because of the exploratory nature of IL design and the vast combinatorial space of possible anion–cation pairs, the experimental determination of these properties is often impractical, being both time-consuming and costly. To overcome these challenges, computational approaches are increasingly employed to develop accurate predictive models that can accelerate IL discovery and design. In this study, we present two deep learning (DL) models for predicting the surface tension of ILs across a broad temperature range at a constant pressure. The models use simplified molecular input line entry system, SMILES, representations of ILs to extract molecular features as inputs. Both DL models demonstrate excellent agreement with experimental data, achieving an R 2 value of 0.990 and a root-mean-square error of 0.792 mN/m. In conclusion, these results offer valuable insights for the rapid screening and rational design of ILs with tailored surface tension values.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

A predictive analytical model of electrical transport in multi-principal-element alloys

A predictive analytical model is presented for the electrical conductivity of multi-principal-element alloys (MPEAs), including those containing aluminum, transition metals, and refractory metals. Given that the lattice parameter of the Wigner-Seitz cell of an MPEA is similarly variable to a bulk metallic glass, it is postulated that electron scattering can be approximated by a series of two-level systems. Here, the resulting reduced-order model enabled an accurate determination of electrical resistivity and electron thermal conductivity based on the scattering of electrons in a two-level system across a Bloch-potential-based virtual crystal approximation. Model results are compared to experimental four-point probe electrical resistivity measurements between 300 K and 700 K for Al 0.3 CoCrCuFeNi, CoCrFeMnNi, (CoCrFeMnNi) 0.98 W 0.02 , (CoCrFeMnNi) 0.95 W 0.05 , and Nb 4 Ta 4 V 3 Ti, for model validation.

Analytical model↗

DOE OSTI2024

Physical, socio-psychological, and behavioural determinants of household energy consumption in the UK

Determining which attitudes and behaviours predict household energy consumption can help accelerate the low-carbon energy transition. Conventional approaches in this domain are limited, often relying on survey methods that produce data on individuals’ motivations and self-reported activities without pairing these with actual energy consumption records, which are particularly hard to collect for large, nationally representative samples. This challenge precludes the development of empirical evidence on which attitudes and behaviours influence patterns of energy consumption, thus limiting the extent to which these can inform energy interventions or conservation programs. This study demonstrates a novel methodology for estimating energy consumption in the absence of actual energy records by using a large, publicly available data set of energy consumption in the UK. We develop a predictive model using the Smart Energy Research Laboratory (SERL) data portal (with records from nearly 13,000 UK households) and then use this model to predict energy consumption (both electric and gas) for a sample of 1,000 UK householders for which we separately collect over 200 variables relating to climate change attitudes and practices. Our approach uses a set of over 50 independent variables that are shared between the data sets, allowing us to train a model on the SERL data and use it to analyse the relationship between energy consumption and the opinions, motivations, and daily practices of survey respondents. Results show that electricity consumption is influenced by a broader range of factors compared to gas. Household energy use is best explained by physical dwelling characteristics, socio-demographic variables, and certain behavioural and attitudinal measures. Notably, pro-environmental attitudes, frugality, and conscientiousness correlate with lower energy use, while income and consumerism are linked to higher consumption. We discuss how these findings can inform efforts to decarbonise home energy use in the UK.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

Thermal loading effects on chalk hydromechanical behavior for nuclear waste disposal

Safe disposal of heat-generating nuclear waste depends on host rock stability under thermal, hydrological, and mechanical stresses. This study investigates the effect of thermal loading on mechanical behavior of the shallowly buried Ghareb formation chalk through triaxial and hydrostatic constant strain rate and creep tests at temperatures up to 100 ˚C and effective pressures up to 20.7 MPa. Experimental results show that thermal loading reduces the elastic moduli of chalk by 50–75%, and a transition occurs above 60 ˚C where creep rates increase rapidly. Water saturation nearly doubles the thermally induced strain compared to dry conditions and strongly decreases material rigidity. Thermal loading also leads to significant pore pressure increases under undrained conditions and leads to reductions in the apparent permeability during drained conditions. Laboratory experimental data were used to parameterize and develop a preliminary constitutive model for predicting future deformation during repository operations in the Ghareb. The strongly coupled effects – mechanical weakening, fluid pressure fluctuations, and permeability modification – demonstrate that elevated repository temperatures will have a pronounced effect on the near field Ghareb behavior during waste disposal operations. The findings indicate that the coupled interactions must be considered in predictive models and repository design to ensure long-term nuclear waste isolation and safety.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2024

Characterizing impurity sourcing and transport in the high temperature boundary of DIII-D wide pedestal QH-mode plasmas

Wide Pedestal QH-mode (WPQH) plasmas in the DIII-D tokamak show a sheath limited SOL, where electron density and temperature remain nearly constant along field lines from the midplane to the divertor. Consequently, parallel gradients are weak. The first Langmuir probe measurements in this regime point to a high sheath temperature with target electron temperature T e up to ~150 eV, leading to high carbon self-sputtering. Midplane carbon densities from SOLPS-ITER modeling of these plasmas in a double-null configuration fall far below experimental measurements unless full drifts are activated. In the drift-dependent SOLPS-ITER modeling, anomalous poloidally uniform, radially varying transport is adjusted to match measured radial electron temperature and density profiles in the pedestal and SOL region. The resulting carbon density (C6+) matches measured carbon densities just inside the separatrix. The C2+ density near the outer strike point is also consistent with spectroscopic imaging. With the ion B×∇B drift towards the X-point, carbon in the lower divertors is redistributed from the private flux region to the high field side (HFS) and pushed upstream in the SOL by poloidal E×B drifts. The B × ∇B drift dominates the radial flow of carbon as it moves upstream. Simulations with reversed toroidal field (ion B × ∇B drift away from the X-point) show a radically different behavior, where carbon accumulates on the low field side in lower divertors, and is pushed towards the HFS in the upper divertors, indicating a strong effect of particle drifts on impurity distribution. In double-null configurations which are usually used in WPQH plasmas, these drift effects tend to counterbalance, so that the carbon density and Z eff are reduced at the outer mid-plane only modestly, by around 7% in the modeling. Further predictive modeling indicates that the carbon density can be significantly reduced by an order of magnitude by implementing a single-null shape with reversed toroidal field.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Temperature and Strain Sensing Characteristics of a 128° YX-Cut LiNbO 3 Rayleigh-Mode SAW Sensor From Room to Cryogenic Temperatures

Accurate, passive, and wireless monitoring of cryogenic hardware is essential for high-energy physics, space propulsion, and biomedical instrumentation. Here, this study quantifies the coupled temperature-strain behavior of Rayleigh-mode surface acoustic-wave (SAW) delay-line sensors fabricated on 128° YX-cut LiNbO 3 . A nonlinear finite element (FE) model incorporating Varshni-based elastic constants, higher-order thermal expansion, and temperature-dependent piezo- and dielectric coefficients was developed and validated experimentally between 280K and 80K. Free-standing (first test condition) and bonded/wired (second test condition) devices exhibited indistinguishable thermal responses; the average temperature coefficient of delay (TCD) in the critical cryogenic range from 130K down to 80K differed by only 0.15 ppm/K (0.32%), confirming that bonding-induced stress is negligible. Over 280-80K the measured TCD was 61.77 ppm/K, while the FE model predicted an equivalent temperature coefficient of frequency (TCF) of −62.74 ppm/K with an overall coefficient of determination R2 = 0.998. In the critical cryogenic interval 130-80K the TCD fell to 47.66 ppm/K, indicating improved thermal stability at low temperature. Controlled loading (0-300 με) revealed a strain coefficient of delay (SCD) that rises from 0.53 ± 0.02 ppm/με at 300K to 1.05 ± 0.02 ppm/με at 80K. This modest sensitivity confirms that, for temperature sensing, strain is a second-order perturbation above 135K but must be compensated at deeper cryogenic levels. Overall, this work establishes a predictive multiphysics model together with repeatable wired measurements that confirm the suitability of SAW sensors for temperature and strain monitoring in extreme cryogenic environments, while also providing a baseline for future wireless implementations.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Lessons Learned from Ecosystem-Scale Experimental Field Studies (Workshop Report)

Efforts to understand and predict ecosystem responses to environmental change require long-term, large-scale, spatially representative experiments and observations that capture natural variability, test predictive models, and generate transferable knowledge. Such studies are indispensable for unraveling the complexities of terrestrial ecosystems and their responses to disturbances and evolving environmental conditions, while generating the data necessary for developing mechanistic models and predictive tools that inform decision-making processes. Having a rich history of designing and executing large-scale ecosystem experiments, the U.S. Department of Energy’s Environmental System Science program convened a workshop in January 2025 that brought together leaders in the field to distill critical lessons from decades of experience in large-scale experiments. The workshop aimed to (1) provide an ecosystem experiment primer for best practices, thus ensuring a high scientific return on investment for funding agencies, and (2) offer a robust framework for the design and management of future research initiatives. This report synthesizes insights and experiences from workshop participants and is structured to capture the entire research life cycle, from goal setting and design to operations, adaptive management, team dynamics, collaborations, and the often overlooked aspect of decommissioning. By synthesizing decision-making and lessons learned across diverse research approaches, the report aims to provide a template of essential factors to consider when designing successful long-term, large-scale ecosystem experiments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Model-driven prediction for accelerator magnet diagnostics to improve operation reliability

Reliability is one of the most critical metrics for accelerator operation, especially in user facilities. To reduce costly facility downtime and provide an operational environment where system performance can be reliably predicted in support of scientific studies, we are developing a model-driven approach for prediction and anomaly detection. Here, in this study, we present the application of a model-driven method that employs a linear regression model to predict the future temperature, in real time, of accelerator magnets at the NSLS-II light source. This approach enables proactive identification of magnet-heating issues, facilitating magnet flushing prior to the occurrence of permanent damage without interrupting machine operation. The implementation of this method in the NSLS-II control room is described and the analysis of the online results is presented. The results demonstrate the model’s effectiveness in providing early alerts to engineers and improving the reliability of accelerator operations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

An Overview of the Molten Salt Thermal Properties Database–Thermophysical, Version 4.0 (MSTDB-TP V.4.0)

A central repository of thermophysical and thermochemical properties of molten salt compositions of relevance to molten salt reactors (MSRs) is vital in supporting the broad community of MSR developers, who are at various stages of developing and deploying their reactor designs. In general, these MSR designs differ significantly from developer to developer (e.g., with respect to the hardness of the neutron spectra, level of fissile loading, target multicomponent temperatures and power levels, and moderating capabilities). Therefore, the fuel and coolant salts being considered vary greatly: they may be chlorides or fluorides, they utilize different actinides at different ratios, and the cations in the melt are selected based on perceived advantages and disadvantages. Considering the general need for thermal properties, and the vastness of the array of potential candidate salt mixtures, the Molten Salt Thermal Properties Database (MSTDB) was initiated in 2018 with the goal of providing thermophysical and thermochemical characterization of key molten salt compounds and mixtures across their temperature and compositional domains. The MSTDB is thus divided into the thermophysical arm (MSTDB-TP) and the thermochemical arm (MSTDB-TC). The MSTDB is an effort funded by the Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program, and the MSR Campaign. This report provides an overview of the MSTDB-TP v4.0 in terms of the data contained within, the state of the tools used to access the data, the availability of predictive models that leverage the raw data in the database, the preliminary status of developmental efforts that are currently underway, and an account of future goals for MSTDB-TP. The primary goal for the update from MSTDB-TP v.3.1 to v4.0 was the incorporation of surface tension data into the database; this property is important for thermal hydraulics modeling and species transport in other tools that have been developed under the NEAMS program. A breakdown of the surface tension data that have been added into MSTDB-TP v4.0 is provided herein, and the manner in which the quality of the data has been assessed is also documented. For MSTDB-TP v4.0, newly published thermophysical property data—primarily from collaborative experimental efforts under the MSR Campaign—have been incorporated into the database, and the resulting expansion is documented here. Because of the size to which MSTDB-TP has grown, the raw data format has now been recast into JavaScript Object Notation (JSON) format for easier connection with the MSTDB-TP application programming interface (API). Saline; the pre-existing comma-separated value (CSV) format has been deprecated but is still maintained, accessible, and up to date. As a final effort in packaging the MSTDB-TP v4.0 update, the graphical user interface (GUI) for MSTDB has been updated to allow full accessibility to the density and viscosity predictive models, which are based on Redlich-Kister expansions of MSTDB-TP raw data. Some other major aspects of this report, in terms of preliminary and future work, include: (1) documentation of the formalism and preliminary testing of a kinetic theory model that may act as a predictive model for thermal conductivity; (2) documentation of the candidate predictive models that may be considered in the future for surface tension, making use of the surface tension data now in MSTDB-TP v4.0; (3) a preliminary account of a data collection process that will enable the filling of additional gaps within MSTDB-TP, namely with data which have been collected computationally (e.g., through ab initio molecular dynamics).

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Poisson Log-Normal Process for Count Data Prediction

Modeling count data is important in physics and other scientific disciplines, where measurements often involve discrete, non-negative quantities such as photon or neutrino detection events. Traditional parametric approaches can be trained to generate integer-count predictions but may struggle with capturing complex, non-linear dependencies often observed in the data. Gaussian process (GP) regression provides a robust non-parametric alternative to modeling continuous data; however, it cannot generate integer outputs. We propose the Poisson Log-Normal (PoLoN) process, a framework that employs GP to model Poisson log-rates. As in GP regression, our approach relies on the correlations between data points captured via GP kernel structure rather than explicit functional parameterizations. We demonstrate that the PoLoN predictive distribution is Poisson-LogNormal and provide an algorithm for optimizing kernel hyperparameters. Furthermore, we adapt the PoLoN approach to the problem of detecting weak localized signals superimposed on a smoothly varying background - a task of considerable interest in many areas of science and engineering. Our framework allows us to predict the strength, location and width of the detected signals. We evaluate PoLoN's performance using both synthetic and real-world datasets, including the open dataset from CERN which was used to detect the Higgs boson at the Large Hadron Collider. Our results indicate that the PoLoN process can be used as a non-parametric alternative for analyzing, predicting, and extracting signals from integer-valued data.

Saha, Anushka [Rutgers U., Piscataway]↗