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At least 127 records · Page 7

QCD Theory Meets Information Theory

We present a novel technique to incorporate precision calculations from quantum chromodynamics into fully differential particle-level Monte Carlo simulations. By minimizing an information-theoretic quantity subject to constraints, our reweighted Monte Carlo incorporates systematic uncertainties absent in individual Monte Carlo predictions, achieving consistency with the theory input in precision and its estimated systematic uncertainties. Our method can be applied to arbitrary observables known from precision calculations, including multiple observables simultaneously. It generates strictly positive weights, thus offering a clear path to statistically powerful and theoretically precise computations for current and future collider experiments. As a proof of concept, we apply our technique to event-shape observables at electron-positron colliders, leveraging existing precision calculations of thrust. Our analysis highlights the importance of logarithmic moments of event shapes, which have not been previously studied in the collider physics literature.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Model-independent measurement of the matter-radiation equality scale in DESI 2024

The peak of the matter power spectrum, known as the turnover (TO) scale, is determined by the horizon size at the time of matter-radiation equality. This scale can serve as a standard ruler, independent of other features in the matter power spectrum, such as baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO). Here, in this work, we present the first detection of the turnover in the galaxy autopower spectrum, utilizing the distribution of quasars and luminous red galaxies (LRG) measured by the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) during its first year of survey operations in a model-independent manner. To avoid confirmation bias, we first analyze the data using data blinding methods designed for the DESI baryon acoustic oscillation, redshift space distortion and scale-dependent bias signals. We measure the angle-averaged dilation distance 𝐷 V ⁡(𝑧 = 1.651) = (38.1 ± 2.5)⁢𝑟 H from the quasars and 𝐷 V ⁡(𝑧 = 0.733) = (21.8 ± 1.0)⁢𝑟 H from the LRG sample in units of the horizon 𝑟 H at the matter-radiation-equality epoch. Combining these two constraints and assuming a flat Λ⁢CDM model with three standard neutrino species, we can translate this into a constraint of Ω m ⁢ℎ 2 = 0.13⁢9$^{+0.036}_{−0.046}$. We can break the Ω m −𝐻 0 degeneracy with low-redshift distance measurements from type-Ia supernova (SN) data from Pantheon+, we obtain a sound-horizon free estimate of the Hubble-Lemaître parameter of 𝐻 0 = 65.2$^{+4.9}_{−6.2}$ km/s/Mpc, consistent with sound-horizon dependent DESI measurements. On the other hand, combining the DESI BAO and TO, we find a truly DESI-only measurement of 𝐻 0 = 74.0$^{+7.2}_{−3.5}$ km/s/Mpc, in line with DESI-only full-shape results where the sound-horizon scale is marginalized out. This discrepancy in 𝐻 0 can be reconciled in a 𝑤 0 ⁢𝑤 𝑎 ⁢ CDM cosmology, where the combination of DESI BAO and TO data yields 𝐻 0 = 66.5 ± 7.2 km/s/Mpc.

cosmological parameters↗

Precision DIS thrust predictions for HERA and EIC

We present predictions for the DIS 1-jettiness event shape $τ^b_1$, or DIS thrust, using the framework of Soft Collinear Effective Theory (SCET) for factorization, resummation of large logarithms, and rigorous treatment of nonperturbative power corrections, matched to fixed-order QCD away from the resummation region. Our predictions reach next-to-next-to-next-to-leading-logarithmic (N 3 LL) accuracy in resummed perturbation theory, matched to $\mathcal{O}(α^2_s)$ fixed-order QCD calculations obtained using the program NLOJet++. We include a rigorous treatment of hadronization corrections, which are universal across different event shapes and kinematic variables x and Q at leading power, and supplement them with a systematic scheme to remove $\mathcal{O}$(Λ QCD ) renormalon ambiguities in their definition. The framework of SCET allows us to connect smoothly the nonperturbative, resummation, and fixed-order regions, whose relative importance varies with x and Q, and to rigorously estimate theoretical uncertainties, across a broad range of x and Q covering existing experimental results from HERA as well as expected new measurements from the upcoming Electron- Ion-Collider (EIC). Our predictions will serve as an important benchmark for the EIC program, enabling the precise determination of the QCD strong coupling α s and the universal nonperturbative first moment parameter Ω 1 .

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Gulf of Mexico Miocene CO2 Site Characterization Mega Transect

The project Gulf of Mexico Miocene CO2 Site Characterization Mega Transect is one of 9 site characterization projects that were implemented as part of ARRA (American Recovery and Reinvestment Act). Data from this project was used to improve resolution of data in NATCARB in the area of study. Data related to this study has already been incorporated in NATCARB Atlas. The University of Texas at Austin study focused on (1) collecting high-resolution, 3-D (HR3D) seismic datasets of the shallow geologic section to evaluate the capacity of potential reservoirs and the sealing capacity of the confining system, and (2) producing a regional CO2 atlas of Miocene age units of the upper Texas coast submerged lands (southeast Texas). The goal of the study was to evaluate the capability of the Miocene age geologic section of Texas submerged lands to permanently store large volumes of anthropogenic CO2. The geographic locations of three HR3D, “P-Cable” seismic surveys collected in the near-shore waters of southeast Texas offers a vertical and horizontal view (data “cube”) example from the second survey. The dataset's high quality allowed for defining recognizable geologic morphologies (shapes) and possible fluid content, which are important for determining an area’s prospects for geologic storage. The regional CO2 atlas of Miocene age units highlights several topics, including: (1) a regional analyses of petroleum systems as analogs for CO2 storage; (2) petrography, petrology, and extent of confining systems of the Miocene section; (3) static capacity estimate; and (4) examples of characterization methodologies of prospect areas. The HR3D datasets and regional analyses within the CO2 atlas of the offshore Texas Miocene provide a sound basis for a future generation of specific CO2 prospects in the study area.

.las↗

SAGAbg. III. Environmental Stellar Mass Functions, Self-quenching, and the Stellar-to-halo Mass Relation in the Dwarf Galaxy Regime

Recent efforts have extended our view of the number and properties of satellite galaxies beyond the Local Group firmly down to M ⋆ ∼ 10 6 M ⊙ . A similarly complete view of the field dwarf population has lagged behind. Using the background galaxy sample from the Satellites Around Galactic Analogs (SAGA) survey at z < 0.05, we take inventory of the dwarf population down to M ⋆ ∼ 5 × 10 6 M ⊙ using three metrics: the stellar mass function (SMF) as a function of environment, the stellar-to-halo mass relation (SHMR) of dwarf galaxies inferred via abundance matching, and the quenched fraction of highly isolated dwarfs. We find that the low-mass SMF shape shows minimal environmental dependence, with the field dwarf SMF described by a low-mass power-law index of α 1 = −1.44 ± 0.09 down to M ⋆ ∼ 5 × 10 6 M ⊙ , and that the quenched fraction of isolated dwarfs drops monotonically to f q ∼ 10 −3 at M ⋆ ∼ 10 8.5 M ⊙ . Though slightly steeper than estimates from H I kinematic measures, our inferred SHMR agrees with literature measurements of satellite systems, consistent with minimal environmental dependence of the SHMR in the probed mass range. Finally, although most contemporary cosmological simulations against which we compare accurately predict the SAGAbg-SMF SHMR, we find that big-box cosmological simulations largely overpredict isolated galaxy quenched fractions via a turnaround in f q (M ⋆ ) at 10 8 ≲ M ⋆ /M ⊙ ≲ 10 9 , underscoring the complexities in disentangling the drivers of galaxy formation and the need for systematic multidimensional observations of the dwarf population across environments.

Kado-Fong, Erin [Yale Univ., New Haven, CT (United↗

Time-resolved spray characterization via unified optical flow and binarization technique

This work leverages an unsupervised machine learning and advanced image processing techniques to characterize the breakup of fuel sprays in a small-scale combustor under reacting conditions, providing valuable insights into near-nozzle flow phenomenology. The proposed methodology integrates an improved optical flow model on a convolutional neural network to extract flow vectors with a binarization technique to assess droplets’ size and shape across the region of interest. The velocimetry approach demonstrates superior performance compared to a state-of-the-art optical flow model when applied to high-speed X-ray phase contrast spray images, achieving more accurate and reliable flow predictions. Moreover, breakup processes are quantified by breakup length and sphericity in accordance with velocity estimations, allowing a more complete characterization of the flow. This study establishes a robust methodology for analyzing spray morphology and primary breakup in compact combustors, contributing valuable means of understanding and optimizing fuel spray behavior in advanced combustion systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Alignments in the orientation of radio jets from AGN and their host galaxies

It is well established that active galactic nuclei (AGNs) play an important role in the evolution of galaxies. These AGNs can be linked to the accretion processes onto massive black holes and past merger events in their host galaxies, which may lead to different alignments of the jets with respect to the host galaxies. This paper presents a study of the position angle (PA) differences between radio and optical images of radio-AGNs based on the second data release (DR2) of the Low Frequency Array (LOFAR) Two-Meter Sky Survey (LoTSS), theKarl G. JanskyVery Large Array Faint Images of the Radio Sky at Twenty-Centimeters Survey (FIRST), the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Legacy Imaging Surveys, and the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). We assessed PA measurement biases in the data and classified the radio-AGNs based on the radio luminosity and infrared colour from the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE). This resulted in the largest sample of radio AGNs with reliable radio and optical PA measurements published to date, with a total of 3682 AGNs. The PA difference (dPA) distributions for the radio-AGN sample show a prominent minor-axis alignment tendency. Based on some simple assumptions, we simulated the projection effect to estimate the intrinsic jet-galaxy alignment. The observed dPA distribution can be well described by a two-component jet-alignment model in which one component is more aligned with the minor axis of the host galaxy than the other. The fitting results indicate that the jet alignment is dependent on radio luminosity and the shape of the host galaxies, with the jets being more likely to be aligned with the minor axis of the galaxy for lower radio luminosity and for optically more elongated radio-AGNs. The minor-axis alignment of the entire sample may suggest a coherent accretion model present in most AGN host galaxies, while a considerable number of luminous radio-AGNs with massive host galaxies might have undergone accretion – according to the chaotic model – or past merger events.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Search for electroweak-scale dijet resonances using trigger-level analysis with the ATLAS detector in 132 fb −1 of 𝑝⁢𝑝 collisions at $\sqrt{𝑠}$ = 13 TeV

This article reports on a search for dijet resonances using 132 fb −1 of 𝑝⁢𝑝 collision data recorded at $\sqrt{𝑠}$ = 13 TeV by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. The search is performed solely on jets reconstructed within the ATLAS trigger to overcome bandwidth limitations imposed on conventional single-jet triggers, which would otherwise reject data from decays of sub-TeV dijet resonances. Collision events with two jets satisfying transverse momentum thresholds of 𝑝 T ≥ 85 GeV and jet rapidity separation of |𝑦*| <0.6 are analysed for dijet resonances with invariant masses from 375 to 1800 GeV. A data-driven background estimate is used to model the dijet mass distribution from multijet processes. No significant excess above the expected background is observed. Upper limits are set at 95% confidence level on coupling values for a benchmark leptophobic axial-vector 𝑍′ model and on the production cross section for a new resonance contributing a Gaussian-distributed line-shape to the dijet mass distribution.

hadron colliders↗

Intrinsic and environmental drivers of pairwise cohesion in wild Canis social groups

Animals within social groups respond to costs and benefits of sociality by adjusting the proportion of time they spend in close proximity to other individuals in the group (cohesion). Variation in cohesion between individuals, in turn, shapes important group-level processes such as subgroup formation and fission–fusion dynamics. Although critical to animal sociality, a comprehensive understanding of the factors influencing cohesion remains a gap in our knowledge of cooperative behavior in animals. We tracked 574 individuals from six species within the genus Canis in 15 countries on four continents with GPS telemetry to estimate the time that pairs of individuals within social groups spent in close proximity and test hypotheses regarding drivers of cohesion. Pairs of social canids (Canis spp.) varied widely in the proportion of time they spent together (5%–100%) during seasonal monitoring periods relative to both intrinsic characteristics and environmental conditions. The majority of our data came from three species of wolves (gray wolves, eastern wolves, and red wolves) and coyotes. For these species, cohesion within social groups was greatest between breeding pairs and varied seasonally as the nature of cooperative activities changed relative to annual life history patterns. Across species, wolves were more cohesive than coyotes. For wolves, pairs were less cohesive in larger groups, and when suitable, small prey was present reflecting the constraints of food resources and intragroup competition on social associations. Pair cohesion in wolves declined with increased anthropogenic modification of the landscape and greater climatic variability, underscoring challenges for conserving social top predators in a changing world. We show that pairwise cohesion in social groups varies strongly both within and across Canis species, as individuals respond to changing ecological context defined by resources, competition, and anthropogenic disturbance. Our work highlights that cohesion is a highly plastic component of animal sociality that holds significant promise for elucidating ecological and evolutionary mechanisms underlying cooperative behavior.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Warped and Hooked: Mapping the Magellanic Clouds in Three Dimensions Using Red Clump Stars

The Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) and Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC) are the Milky Way’s nearest interacting galaxy pair, offering a unique laboratory for studying tidal effects on galactic disks. Despite extensive survey efforts, the 3D geometry of the Magellanic Clouds, particularly the putative warp of the LMC, remains poorly constrained due to incompleteness in their crowded centers and the low stellar density of their peripheries, which demand wide-field coverage. Using red clump (RC) stars as standard candles, corrected for age- and metallicity-dependent population effects with empirically calibrated color–magnitude relations and spatially resolved star formation histories, we construct the most detailed distance map of the Magellanic system to date. Based on ∼2.3 million RC stars from Gaia Data Release 3 combined with modern reddening maps, we measure median heliocentric distances of 50.62 ± 2.32 kpc for the LMC (to ∼23°) and 60.75 ± 2.85 kpc for the SMC (to ∼12°). The maps reveal substructures including the LMC Northern Arm, southern hooks, the Magellanic Bridge, and SMC peripheral overdensities, with refreshed distance estimates. Fitting the LMC disk within 7° yields a global inclination of $i=25\mathop{.}\limits^{^\circ }32\pm 0\mathop{.}\limits^{^\circ }10$ and a line-of-nodes position angle of $\theta = 142\mathop{.}\limits^{^\circ }34\pm 0\mathop{.}\limits^{^\circ }21$. Most strikingly, we find the LMC periphery is warped azimuthally into a U-shaped structure reaching a vertical amplitude of ∼7 kpc at a radius of ∼15 kpc. In future work, we will perform detailed comparisons with live N-body simulations to assess possible formation scenarios for the LMC warp.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Analysis of BOSS galaxy data with weighted skew-spectra

We present the first application of the weighted skew-spectra to analyze non-Gaussian information in galaxy survey data. Using the tree-level galaxy skew-spectra together with the one-loop power spectrum multipoles, we analyze the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS)-III Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS) galaxy clustering data, and target our search towards the equilateral bispectrum shape of primordial non-Gaussianity. We use the Effective Field Theory model for the galaxy power spectrum and bispectrum, and account for systematic effects, such as the survey geometry. From our likelihood analysis, we find f NL equil = -34 +296 -334 at 68% CL, consistent with previous works, while systematic errors from our treatment of the survey geometry lead to an unreliable estimation of f NL ortho . As a result, we further constrain the bias and counterterm parameters, while keeping the cosmology fixed to Planck 2018 values. As a check, we also validate our analysis pipeline using theNseries simulation suite.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Apparent fracture toughness estimation of additively manufactured alumina from as-printed chevron-notched test specimens

Ceramic vat photopolymerization (VPP) is a digital light processing method used to make additively manufactured green ceramic components that are then sintered. Despite the ever-advancing maturation of this method's green-state process, some of the material properties of sintered VPP-processed ceramics are still not well defined or understood. One example is Mode I fracture toughness, K Ic . In this study, attention was devoted to K Ic measurement using net-shape chevron-notched bend bars that were VPP-processed and the examination of whether valid K Ic measurement could occur by testing them. Further, stable crack propagation was observed in >60% of tested samples, indicated by a smooth nonlinear transition through the measured maximum force prior to final fracture. However, their results cannot yet be responsibly referred to as K Ic because of continuing violations of other prerequisites needed for valid K Ic testing.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

UNCERTAINTIES FOR IN-REACTOR TESTING OF TRITIUM LOADED GETTERS WITH TEMPERATURE CONTROL

The fourth experiment in TPBAR Materials Irradiation Separate-Effects Test (TMIST) series (TMIST-4) is planned to experimentally determine the effect of neutron irradiation on the equilibrium vapor pressure of tritium over a tritium loaded Nickel-Plated Zirconium (NPZ) getter in a simulated TPBAR service environment. This pressure will be used to estimate the tritium permeation rate. In the thermal design in the TMIST-4, two evaluations are required. 1) The cladding temperature is calculated to estimate the feasibility of detecting potential irradiation enhancement of the partial pressure for an NPZ getter. This work is required to obtain a precise cladding temperature for measurement of a low tritium partial pressure. This work has been completed and indicated that the required/target cladding temperatures based on the TMIST-4 test plan can be satisfied under the test condition range by modifying the capsule component shapes and inserting a thermally conductive metal sleeve. 2) The evaluation of uncertainties associated with the test design and operation is performed. This includes fabrication tolerances, and power and nuclear operating conditions. These factors will impact the component temperatures inside capsules and resulting the tritium partial pressure. The tritium permeation rate is a function of temperature and tritium partial pressure. The prediction of tritium permeation rates affects the feasibility of obtaining measurement resolutions required to reach reasonable conclusion for potential irradiation enhanced performance. This work will investigate the uncertainties.

TTP, TPBAR, TMIST-4, TPBAR Materials Irradiation S↗

Thermal Management for a Novel Non-Heavy Rare-Earth Interior Permanent Magnet Machine

The work presents a thermal management solution for a novel non-heavy rare-earth permanent magnet machine being developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The motor has been designed to minimize losses while maximizing performance for a range of speeds and power ratings. The novel motor design reduces rare-earth magnet usage, thereby avoiding supply chain issues. The motor component heat losses are established for operating windows and desired performance. These heat losses, along with windage losses, are being used to develop cooling solutions for different components of this machine. A novel thermal management solution for stators and rotors has been developed, and progress is presented in this paper. The stator cooling is achieved with the help of water-ethylene glycol flowing over the finned aluminum stator jacket, and rotor cooling with automatic transmission fluid passing through novel channels designed in the rotor laminations. The attempt is to establish effective cooling of the stator winding, laminations, and rotor magnets. A 3D conjugate heat transfer model has been developed for overall thermal analysis to establish a down- selected thermal management solution for the machine. The model, in addition to estimated component heat losses, includes windage losses and its impact on rotor and stator cooling. Overall, the work presents a workable thermal solution for the interior permanent magnet machine with potential for further improvements. Future work will involve establishing end winding and refinement of other end parts of the machine with the aim of establishing a robust thermal management solution. The work will also focus on different shapes (e.g., round, non-round, presence of wedges) of rotor-stator gaps and investigate windage losses and their impact on thermal management for higher rotational speeds for the machine.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Dark Energy Survey Year 6 results: cell-based coadds and METADETECTION weak lensing shape catalogue

We present the metadetection weak lensing galaxy shape catalogue from the 6-yr Dark Energy Survey (DES Y6) imaging data. This data set is the final release from DES, spanning 4422 deg 2 of the southern sky. We describe how the catalogue was constructed, including the two new major processing steps, cell-based image coaddition, and shear measurements with metadetection. The DES Y6 M etadetection weak lensing shape catalogue consists of 151 922 791 galaxies detected over riz bands, with an effective number density of n eff = 8.22 galaxies per arcmin 2 and shape noise of σ e = 0.29. We carry out a suite of validation tests on the catalogue, including testing for point spread function (PSF) leakage, testing for the impact of PSF modelling errors, and testing the correlation of the shear measurements with galaxy, PSF, and survey properties. In addition to demonstrating that our catalogue is robust for weak lensing science, we use the DES Y6 image simulation suite to estimate the overall multiplicative shear bias of our shear measurement pipeline. We find no detectable multiplicative bias at the roughly half-per cent level, with m = (3.4 ± 6.1) x 10 –3 , at 3σ uncertainty. This is the first time both cell-based coaddition and Metadetection algorithms are applied to observational data, paving the way to the Stage-IV weak lensing surveys.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Particle production as a function of charged-particle flattenicity in 𝑝⁢𝑝 collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV

This paper reports the first measurement of the transverse momentum (𝑝 T ) spectra of primary charged pions, kaons, (anti)protons, and unidentified particles as a function of the charged-particle flattenicity in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ =13 TeV. Flattenicity is a novel event shape observable that is measured in the pseudorapidity intervals covered by the V0 detector, 2.8 < 𝜂 < 5.1 and −3.7 < 𝜂 < −1.7. According to QCD-inspired phenomenological models, it shows sensitivity to multiparton interactions and is less affected by biases toward larger 𝑝 T due to local multiplicity fluctuations in the V0 acceptance than multiplicity. The analysis is performed in minimum-bias (MB) as well as in high-multiplicity events up to 𝑝 T = 20 GeV/⁢𝑐. The event selection requires at least one charged particle produced in the pseudorapidity interval |𝜂| < 1. The measured 𝑝 T distributions, average 𝑝 T , kaon-to-pion and proton-to-pion particle ratios, presented in this paper, are compared to model calculations using pythia 8 based on color strings and EPOS LHC. The modification of the 𝑝 T -spectral shapes in low-flattenicity events that have large event activity with respect to those measured in MB events develops a pronounced peak at intermediate 𝑝 T (2 < 𝑝 T < 8 GeV/𝑐), and approaches the vicinity of unity at higher 𝑝 T . The results are qualitatively described by pythia, and they show different behavior than those measured as a function of charged-particle multiplicity based on the V0M estimator.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Rippled metamaterials with scale-dependent tailorable elasticity

Thermally induced ripples are intrinsic features of nanometer-thick films, atomically thin materials, and cell membranes, significantly affecting their elastic properties. Despite decades of theoretical studies on the mechanics of suspended thermalized sheets, controversy still exists over the impact of these ripples, with conflicting predictions about whether elasticity is scale-dependent or scale-independent. Experimental progress has been hindered so far by the inability to have a platform capable of fully isolating and characterizing the effects of ripples. This knowledge gap limits the fundamental understanding of thin materials and their practical applications. Here, we show that thermal-like static ripples shape thin films into a class of metamaterials with scale-dependent, customizable elasticity. Utilizing a scalable semiconductor manufacturing process, we engineered nanometer-thick films with precisely controlled frozen random ripples, resembling snapshots of thermally fluctuating membranes. Resonant frequency measurements of rippled cantilevers reveal that random ripples effectively renormalize and enhance the average bending rigidity and sample-to-sample variations in a scale-dependent manner, consistent with recent theoretical estimations. The predictive power of the theoretical model, combined with the scalability of the fabrication process, was further exploited to create kirigami architectures with tailored bending rigidity and mechanical metamaterials with delayed buckling instability.

Applied Physical Sciences↗

Climate change and federal aid disbursements after Hurricane Harvey: an extreme event attribution analysis

The role climate change plays in increasing the burden placed on governments and insurers to pay for recovery has not been extensively explored and is the focus of this study. This study examines the impacts of climate change attributed flooding on federal disaster aid disbursement in Harris County, Texas following Hurricane Harvey in 2017. Our approach uses flood models to estimate the amount of flood damages attributable and not attributable to climate change under two climate change attribution scenarios from peer reviewed studies: 20% and 38% increases in rainfall associated with the hurricane due to climate change. These estimates are combined with census tract-level disbursement data for FEMA’s National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) and the Individual Assistance (IA) part of the Individuals and Households Program. We employ spatial lag regression models with direct and spatial spillover effects to analyze the relationship between a tract’s flood damages—both attributed and not attributed to climate change—and federal disaster aid. We find that both types of flood damage shape federal aid disbursements, but that climate change attributed damages tend to have larger effect sizes (elasticities) especially for IA. Specifically, for a 1% increase in additional climate change attributed damages per household in a census tract (under the 20% scenario), expected NFIP levels in that census tract are 0.26% higher and IA levels are 0.3% higher. Implications center on federal funding in an era of climate change.

FEMA↗