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NASA NTRS1997

Gravitational Effects in Smoldering and SHS

Smolder waves and SHS (self-propagating high-temperature synthesis) waves are both examples of filtration combustion waves propagating in porous media. Smoldering combustion is important for the study of fire safety. Smoldering itself can cause damage, its products are toxic and it can also lead to the more dangerous gas phase combustion which corresponds to faster propagation at higher temperatures. In SHS, a porous solid sample, consisting of a finely ground powder mixture of reactants, is ignited at one end. A high temperature thermal wave, having a frontal structure, then propagates through the sample converting reactants to products. The SHS technology appears to enjoy a number of advantages over the conventional technology, in which the sample is placed in a furnace and 'baked' until it is 'well done'. The advantages include shorter synthesis times, greater economy, in that the internal energy of the reactions is employed rather than the costly external energy of the furnace, purer products, simpler equipment and no intrinsic limitation on the size of the sample to be synthesized, as exists in the conventional technology.

Bernard J Matkowsky↗

DOE OSTI2026

Hybrid Bio-Based Composites: Enabling Cellulose Nanofiber (CNF) Incorporation into Composites via Macroscale Natural Fiber Carriers

Cellulose nanofibers (CNFs) have significant potential in composites as additives to improve mechanical properties, melt rheology, and more. However, agglomeration of CNFs is a key challenge in composite melt processing as obtaining nano-level dispersion of CNFs often requires cost- and energy-intensive processes (e.g., solvent exchange or freeze drying) due to the strong hornification tendencies of CNF. Herein, we avoid these challenges by using a natural fiber carrier method to integrate CNF into thermoplastic composites. Fibers are co-dried to create a hybrid fiber feedstock for compounding in which natural fibers are decorated with dispersed nanofibers. The hybridized fibers result in up to a 24% increase in tensile strength and up to a 35% increase in Young’s modulus compared to composites only containing natural fibers. The lignocellulosic nanofibers are found to outperform their purely cellulosic counterpart, which is theorized to be due to either an increased propensity for fibrillation of the lignocellulosic fibers or the increased hydrophobicity of the fibers due to the presence of lignin. Surface analysis of fiber feedstocks, via streaming potential measurements and dynamic light scattering (DLS), confirmed a significant change in the feedstock hydrophobicity before and after hybridization. While mild additions of CNF (1 wt.% on the macroscale fiber) do not impact the composite melt viscosity, the viscosity is found to increase at higher CNF loadings (5 wt.% on the macroscale fiber), indicating its utility as a rheology modifier. Lastly, use of these materials as novel feedstocks for medium-scale additive manufacturing in high-fidelity part production was demonstrated.

bio-based↗

DOE OSTI2026

Ramp-release experiments for strength measurements: Strain-rate dependence

This paper presents an enhanced analysis method for investigating material properties at high strain rates, extending the capability of established experimental techniques to gain more information. The ramp-release method has been applied to many experiments reported at high (≈10 5 − 10 6 s −1 ) strain-rates. More recent data gathered at the National Ignition Facility (NIF) has enabled higher (≈10 8 s −1 ) strain-rates to be studied. Here, we present an initial application of ramp-release analysis to NIF ramp-compression data, illustrating both the opportunities and the practical challenges of extending these methods to laser-driven platforms. The higher strain-rates accessed at the NIF mean that there is more strain-rate enhancement to strength, and the experimental configuration means that this enhancement is more readily seen in the data. This is enabled by the capability of avoiding peak-compression attenuation through the sample thickness with a designed hold period made possible by the pulse-shaping capability of NIF. We propose that this combination of experimental conditions and an enhanced analysis method enables the strain-rate enhancement to strength to be studied, and potentially for this to inform physics models at smaller scales than the continuum.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

SUDA: A SUrface Dust Analyser for Compositional Mapping of the Galilean Moon Europa

Abstract The Surface Dust Analyser (SUDA) is a mass spectrometer onboard the Europa Clipper mission for investigating the surface composition of the Galilean moon Europa. Atmosphereless planetary moons such as the Galilean satellites are wrapped into a ballistic dust exosphere populated by tiny samples from the moon’s surface produced by impacts of fast micrometeoroids. SUDA will measure the composition of such surface ejecta during close flybys of Europa to obtain key chemical signatures for revealing the satellite’s composition such as organic molecules and salts, history, and geological evolution. Because of their ballistic orbits, detected ejecta can be traced back to the surface with a spatial resolution roughly equal to the instantaneous altitude of the spacecraft. SUDA is a Time-Of-Flight (TOF), reflectron-type impact mass spectrometer, optimized for a high mass resolution which only weakly depends on the impact location. The instrument will measure the mass, speed, charge, elemental, molecular, and isotopic composition of impacting grains. The instrument’s small size of$268 ~\mathrm {mm} \times 250 ~\mathrm {mm} \times 171$ 268 mm × 250 mm × 171 $~\mathrm {mm}$ mm , radiation-hard design, and rather large sensitive area of 220 cm 2 matches well the challenging demands of the Clipper mission.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Application of System-Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) to a NASA Concept Electric Aircraft Battery System

System-Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) is a systems-based hazard analysis method that identifies unsafe interactions and control deficiencies in complex systems but has been rarely used for NASA programs in favor of more well-established hazard analyses. To evaluate its applicability, a NASA Safety and Mission Assurance (SMA) team applied the STPA method to an early-stage hybrid electrified aircraft concept, focusing on the energy storage system and electric powertrain. Objectives include assessing STPA’s value relative to traditional methods and its suitability for early design phases. Activities include team training, system review, detailed STPA execution, and comparison with traditional analyses. Findings show STPA provides a structured, comprehensive hazard evaluation and can identify additional risks by expanding analysis boundaries. However, traditional methods can yield similar results when applied rigorously, though they typically require more mature designs. Overall, STPA is a valuable addition, particularly for early development, informing safety requirements and supporting preliminary hazard analyses. Further pilot applications are recommended.

Electric Aviation↗

DOE OSTI2025

Establishing model credibility for process-microstructure-property relationships in additive manufacturing using exascale computing

Additive Manufacturing (AM) of alloys holds significant promise as a disruptive technology in various industries, yet its adoption is often hindered by challenges in achieving consistent part quality. These issues are primarily due to the complex process-microstructure-property (PSP) relationships inherent to AM. Computational models can greatly aid in understanding these relationships, but their widespread impact and adoption has been limited by a lack of validated, open-source, and computationally efficient PSP modeling frameworks and hardware limitations. Here, this study leverages the ExaAM software suite and data from the AMBench-2018 series of laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) benchmark experiments to perform a comprehensive model assessment, including verification, validation, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty quantification. The RADICAL-EnTK workflow manager was used to perform an ensemble of heat transport, solidification, and mechanical response simulations on the exascale computer Frontier, considering uncertainties in critical model inputs such as laser spot size and nucleation parameters, and consisting of 125 explicit grain structure simulations and 7875 crystal plasticity simulations. For a selected location within the Inconel 625 AMBench-2018 test artifact, sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification were performed using the predicted distributions of grain structure and mechanical properties. Qualitative agreement was found between the predicted grain size and texture and the observed AMBench-2018 microstructure, the mean predicted yield stress was within 5% of the experimental measurement mean, and the mean predicted engineering stress at 5% strain was within 10% of the experimental measurement mean. The insights gained from development and validation of the ExaAM PSP modeling framework will help guide future directions for enhancing the credibility and reliability of PSP models in AM, thereby accelerating the adoption of AM technologies in various industries.

Additive manufacturing↗

NASA NTRS2026

Fatigue Behavior of Laser Powder Bed Fused HAYNES 214: Effects of Different Surface Treatments

In this study, under NASA’s Rapid and Analysis Manufacturing Propulsion Technology (RAMPT) project, effects of different surface post-treatments on surface texture and fatigue behavior of L-PBF Alloy 214 were investigated. Various subtractive SPTs including abrasive flow machining (AFM), machining (M), shot peening (SP), vapormatt (VM), dry electropolishing (DE), chemical milling (CM), chemical-mechanical polishing (CMP), electro chemical (ECP) were applied to study the variations of the surface texture, microstructure and uniaxial fatigue behavior under fully reversed strain-controlled condition at four different strain amplitudes of 0.005, 0.004, 0.003, and 0.0025 mm/mm. The insights gained regarding the relationship between structural and mechanical properties for different SPTs can help establish guidelines for selecting the most effective process to enhance the performance of Laser Powder Bed Fusion (L-PBF) Alloy 214, especially for critical aerospace applications.

Post-Processing↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Solvent-Free Preparation of High Energy, Binder-Free Electrodes Enabled by Dry Compressible Holey Graphene

Graphene is an atomically thick sheet consisting of a graphitic carbon network with excellent mechanical strength, electrical and thermal conductivity, and chemical stability. Holey graphene, a structural derivative of graphene, has an array of through-the-thickness holes across the lateral surface of the nanosheet. The presence of these holes has minimal detrimental effect on the graphene properties and leads to enhanced performance in applications such as electronics, sensors, and energy storage. For example, these holes allow more facile cross-plane ion and gas transport than intact graphene, making holey graphene an ideal electrode material for electrochemical energy storage. This presentation will focus on the ability of holey graphene to be compression molded into robust articles or architectures under solvent-free conditions without the need for potentially parasitic binders. The unique dry compressibility of holey graphene has enabled facile fabrication of high mass loading electrodes with both high density and high porosity, which have found use in supercapacitors and various high-energy battery systems such as lithium-oxygen, lithium-sulfur, and lithium-selenium batteries.

Yi Lin↗

DOE OSTI2024

Zero-field J-spectroscopy of quadrupolar nuclei

Abstract Zero- to ultralow-field nuclear magnetic resonance (ZULF NMR) allows molecular structure elucidation via measurement of electron-mediated spin-spinJ-couplings. This study examines zero-fieldJ-spectra from molecules with quadrupolar nuclei, exemplified by solutions of various isotopologues of ammonium cations. The spectra reveal differences between various isotopologues upon extracting preciseJ-coupling values from pulse-acquire measurements. A primary isotope effect,$$\triangle J=\left({\gamma }_{{}^{14}{{{{{\rm{N}}}}}}}/{\gamma }_{{}^{15}{{{{{\rm{N}}}}}}}\right){J}_{{}^{15}{{{{{\rm{N}}}}}}{{{{{\rm{H}}}}}}}-{J}_{{}^{14}{{{{{\rm{N}}}}}}{{{{{\rm{H}}}}}}}\approx -58$$ △ J = γ 14 N / γ 15 N J 15 N H − J 14 N H ≈ − 58 mHz, is deduced by analysis of the proton-nitrogenJ-coupling ratios. This study points toward further experiments with symmetric cations containing quadrupolar nuclei, promising applications in biomedicine, energy storage, and benchmarking quantum chemistry calculations.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

NASA NTRS1960

A Coaxial Flow Reactor - A Gaseous Nuclear-Rocket Concept

Aspects of a new gaseous nuclear-rocket concept are considered. The principle of this type of cavity reactor is one of maintaining the separation of two coaxial streams - fuel within propellant - rather than attaining the separation of fuel propellant gases within the cavity. An acceptably low uranium consumption rate is possible if the fuel stream can be maintained at an axial velocity which is 1/100 to 1/1000 of the propellant velocity. An elementary hydrodynamic analysis for laminar incompressible flow indicates that the average uranium core velocity may only reach 2 to 11 times the initial core velocity for a typical reactor. The results of a 1-D criticality analysis for a D2O/(235)U system show that the effect of shrinking the fuel region within the reactor cavity is not serious; the effects of moderator heating and structural materials on critical mass are also shown. Overall rocket performance calculations are made for reasonable operating conditions; these results indicate that thrusts from 25,000 to 50,000 pounds and accelerations from 10(exp -1) to 3 g are possible.

Herbert Weinstein↗

NASA NTRS2026

Physical Parameters of Space Mission Asteroid Targets

Ground-based characterization of asteroids that are planned or potential targets of space missions provides important data on their physical parameters and properties. Knowledge of the properties of mission targets is important especially during mission preparation and planning, as it serves to select best or suitable targets for specific purpose of a given mission, to prepare mission plans, to constrain possible mission scenarios, and to design mission experiments. Such characterization efforts may be particularly critical for flyby missions that take only limited data during the high-speed flybys of their target asteroids, but they also provide very crucial data for targets of rendezvous missions. Moreover, long-term observations taken from Earth also allows the modelling of, or constraining, processes acting on the asteroids over extended time scales. Over the past years and decades we have obtained rich data on physical parameters of 82 asteroids that are planned or potential targets of space missions. Our primary observing technique is time-resolved (lightcurve) photometry, but we use also data obtained with other techniques, such as spectroscopy, thermal or radar observations. 15 of the 82 characterized asteroids are planned or possible targets of several space missions that are in flight or preparation, such as ESA’s Hera, RAMSES and PRIAMOS, NASA’s OSIRIS-APEX, JAXA’s Hayabusa2#, DESTINY+ and Next Generation Sample Return (NGSR), the Emirates Mission to Asteroids (EMA), and Karman+’s High Frontier, but we have also characterized 67 asteroids that are potential targets of space missions for their low delta-V’s and were announced as being “of interest to NASA” in the Small-Bodies-Observations- NASA mailing list or listed on the NHATS page of “Accessible NEAs”. The sample of asteroid targets span 3 orders of magnitude in size, with absolute magnitudes H from 12.57 to 26.8, corresponding to diameters from about 10 m to about 10 km. The sample contains a variety of taxonomic types and physically or dynamically interesting objects. Among them, we have identified 5 binary asteroids and 20 tumblers (i.e., asteroids in excited, non-principal axis rotation states). Rotation periods of the characterized asteroids range from 1.45 min to 280 h, reflecting diversity of their properties and formation/evolution paths. We will present an overview of the data set and highlight several representative cases.

Petr Pravec↗

NASA NTRS2019

The operational environment and rotational acceleration of asteroid (101955) Bennu from OSIRIS-REx observations

During its approach to asteroid (101955) Bennu, NASA's Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, and Security-Regolith Explorer (OSIRIS-REx) spacecraft surveyed Bennu's immediate environment, photometric properties, and rotation state. Discovery of a dusty environment, a natural satellite, or unexpected asteroid characteristics would have had consequences for the mission's safety and observation strategy. Here we show that spacecraft observations during this period were highly sensitive to satellites (sub-meter scale) but reveal none, although later navigational images indicate that further investigation is needed. We constrain average dust production in September 2018 from Bennu's surface to an upper limit of 150g s −1 averaged over 34 min. Bennu's disk-integrated photometric phase function validates measurements from the pre-encounter astronomical campaign. We demonstrate that Bennu's rotation rate is accelerating continuously at 3.63+- 0.52 x10 −6 degrees A day -2 , likely due to the Yarkovsky-O'Keefe-Radzievskii-Paddack (YORP) effect, with evolutionary implications.

Carl William Hergenrother↗

DOE OSTI2026

Data-Driven Discovery and Experimental Validation of Solvent Polarity Effects on Conjugated Polymer Solution-to-Film Assembly Pathways

Understanding how solvent properties influence the solution-to-film assembly of conjugated polymers remains a critical challenge due to the complex and intertwined nature of polymer–solvent interactions. In this study, we integrate a data-driven framework with experimental validation to identify key parameters influencing the assembly and performance of poly[2,5-(2-octyldodecyl)-3,6-diketopyrrolopyrrole-alt-5,5-(2,5-di(thien-2-yl)thieno[3,2-b]thiophene)] (DPP-DTT) in organic field-effect transistors (OFETs). A machine learning (ML) approach identified the normalized Reichardt polarity parameter (E T N ) as a significant descriptor correlated with DPP-DTT hole mobility (μ). Systematic DPP-DTT devices fabricated using solvents across a wide E T N range revealed that higher E T N solvents yield enhanced μ. To elucidate the structural origins of high μ, we conducted comprehensive analyses using UV–vis–NIR spectroscopy and grazing incidence wide angle X-ray scattering (GIWAXS) measurements. The results revealed that films processed from high E T N solvents exhibit reduced paracrystallinity. By analyzing the solution-state behavior using optical microscopy and solution WAXS, we revealed polymer solubility differences in the various solvents and associated distinct polymer assembly pathways, elucidating why the high E T N solvent produces long-range ordered films. Notably, the high E T N solvent shows a pronounced preference for liquid-crystal (LC)-mediated assembly, providing a mechanistic explanation for the enhanced structural order. Therefore, these results demonstrate that solvent polarity, as evaluated by E T N , serves as an important parameter that plays a significant role in the DPP-DTT assembly pathway and resultant solid-state morphology. This work provides a strategy for integrating data science with experiments to identify critical parameters associated with complex polymer systems and helps guide rational process design for high-performance organic electronics.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Systems Engineering and Analysis in Support of a US Federal Staging Facility for UNF

The US Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) Office of Spent Fuel and High-Level Waste Disposition is examining a set of system options and conducting supporting analyses to inform the development of an integrated waste management system, which may include one or more federal staging facilities (FSFs) for used nuclear fuel (UNF ) sited using a collaborative siting process. This paper focuses on the ongoing activities in two systems engineering and analysis work areas: (1) data and tools development, validation, and maintenance and (2) systems engineering execution. Within the first work area, the STANDARDS 5.0 UNF data and analysis tool, formerly known as UNF-ST&DARDS, is being developed as a foundational resource to assist in the management of UNF data. It has the key capability to model UNF throughout the entire back end of the fuel cycle. STANDARDS also includes several compatible analysis tools for the time-dependent characterization of UNF and related systems by interfacing with the SCALE code system for nuclear analysis and COBRA-SFS for thermal analysis. Also, within the data and tools area is the Next Generation System Analysis Model (NGSAM), which is an agent-based simulation software tool expressly designed to be capable of modeling the waste management system, including the transportation of UNF to and from a FSF. NGSAM has been developed to enable informed decision-making by providing the capability to analyze various potential system options for the management of UNF and high-level radioactive waste. Finally, in the systems engineering execution area, the team has begun to apply a disciplined systems engineering approach at the system level along with supporting analysis to guide the development of the FSF project requirements (including associated transportation infrastructure). Systems engineering principles and practices and their adaptation/application to design and development activities will ensure that the waste management system is effectively implemented as work proceeds. Other activities include investigating the implications of changes in various assumptions and parameters related to waste management systems, such as UNF acceptance rates, receipt logic, facility capacities and capabilities, use of standardized canisters, and different assumed facility operation start dates. Keywords: federal staging facility (FSF), used nuclear fuel (UNF), integrated waste management (IWM) system, Next Generation System Analysis Model (NGSAM), STANDARDS, systems engineering

Joseph, Robert↗

DOE OSTI2026

Identification of potent inhibitors of JUN N-terminal kinases for treatment of endometriosis and associated pain

Endometriosis, defined as the ectopic growth of endometrial tissue outside of the uterine cavity, is an inflammatory and hormone-dependent disease that causes excruciating pelvic pain, infertility, and significantly decreases quality of life in affected patients. The JUN N-terminal kinases (JNKs) are a leading class of nonhormonal therapeutic targets that have been validated in preclinical models of endometriosis and in a Phase 1/2 clinical trial. Despite their therapeutic potential, JNK inhibitors with increased potency and specificity are needed to address the inflammatory pathology of endometriosis and to prevent disease progression. Leveraging a DNA-encoded chemical library collection of ~4 billion compounds, we identified lead inhibitor CDD-2428 and optimized derivatives, CDD-2728 and CDD-3013, with excellent binding affinity to JNK1-3 (K d = 0.12 to 3.7 nM), enhanced selectivity, metabolic stability, and cellular permeability. Crystallographic and biochemical studies confirmed that CDD-3013 exhibited superior kinase selectivity with improved efficacy compared to existing JNK inhibitors. In primary endometriosis cell models, CDD-2728 and CDD-3013 suppressed JNK-dependent inflammatory signaling, dampening pathways linked to pain, invasion, angiogenesis, and macrophage recruitment. In an endometriosis mouse model, both CDD-2728 and CDD-3013 reduced endometriotic lesion size, macrophage infiltration, and cellular proliferation, showing in vivo efficacy. When tested in a lipopolysaccharide-induced hyperalgesia model, CDD-2728 and CDD-3013 decreased markers of induced pain, as measured by changes in a dynamic weight bearing test and Grimace scores. These findings nominate CDD-2728 and CDD-3013 as potent, nonhormonal therapeutic candidates for endometriosis with broad anti-inflammatory and analgesic activity, addressing a critical unmet clinical need.

Madasu, Chandrashekhar [Department of Pathology an↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

First N 2 Profile for Venus’ Deep Lower Atmosphere

We present the first N 2 profile for Venus’ deep lower atmosphere (<15 km) and a constrained isotopic composition for cloud N 2 [1]. This work directly addresses unresolved questions for Venus using legacy observations. Prior to this work, there were no reported measurements for N 2 abundances at <15 km and the isotopic composition remained unconstrained [2]. The N 2 parameters are critical to understanding the evolution and thermal properties of the atmosphere [3-7]. Our N 2 results were obtained by re-analysis of data acquired in 1978 by the Pioneer Venus Large Probe Neutral Mass Spectrometer (LNMS) [8]. The archived mass spectra from 64.2 to 0.2 km were treated using the analytical procedures specifically developed for the LNMS [9-11]. Judicious peak fitting permitted disambiguation of (A) N 2 + and CO + at 28 u and (B) 14 N 15 N+, 13 CO + , and C 2 H 5 + at 29 u. Quality controls included comparing the (A) LNMS CO + /CO 2 + ratios to the NIST database and literature and (B) fitted counts for CO + to the expected counts of CO + calculated from C 18 O + and 13 CO + using the LNMS 16 O/ 18 O and 12 C/ 13 C ratios (obtained from CO 2 ). Our results show that N 2 is uniformly mixed across the deep lower atmosphere between ~0.2 and 15 km (2.49 ± 0.10 v%). In contrast, N 2 is non-uniformly mixed across the sub-cloud atmosphere and clouds (~15–59 km), where N 2 abundances increase by ~ 2-fold between ~15 km (2.45 ± 0.32 v%) and ~59-51 km (5.21 ± 0.18 v%). Using the cloud data, we also obtained a constrained 15 N/ 14 N ratio (2.93×10 -3 ± 0.13×10 -3 ) and δ 15 N value (-204 ± 35‰). Thus, the LNMS results [1] suggest that (A) the atmosphere is unstable at <15 km, (B) N 2 is not well-mixed >15 km, and (C) the cloud δ 15 N falls between Earth and the solar wind [12, 13]. Comparisons of the N 2 abundances and isotopic compositions for nitrogen, carbon, and oxygen to other Venus measurements will be discussed.

deep lower atmosphere↗

NASA NTRS1999

Solid Inflammability Boundary at Low Speed (SIBAL)

This research program is concerned with the effect of low-speed, concurrent flow on the spreading and extinction processes of flames over solid fuels. The primary objective is to verify the theoretically predicted extinction boundary, using oxygen percentage and flow velocity as coordinates. In particular, we are interested in the low-speed quenching limits and the existence of the critical oxygen flammability limit. Detailed flame spread characteristics, including flame spread rate, flame size, and flame structure are sought. Since the predicted flame behavior depends on the inclusion of flame and surface radiation, the measured results will also be used to assess the importance of radiative heat transfer by direct comparison to a comprehensive numerical model. This project passed the Science Concept Review (SCR) in 1996. As a result, the experiment continues on the flight definition path, and is currently scheduled to be performed in the Space Station Combustion Integrated Rack (CIR). We present an overview of recent and ongoing work, including selected experimental and theoretical topics.

James S T'ien↗

NASA NTRS2026

Updated global and regional trends of stratospheric ozone profiles

We present updated evaluation of stratospheric ozone profile trends in the 60° S–60°N latitude range using long-term ground-based and satellite climate data records, as well as simulations by chemistry-climate models. The trends are evaluated using the LOTUS (Long-term Ozone Trends and Uncertainties in the Stratosphere) regression model. Analyses of satellite data confirm the statistically significant positive ozone trends in the period 2000–2024 in the upper stratosphere of ~1–3% per decade, with larger trends at mid-latitudes compared to the tropics. The trends are slightly positive or close to zero in the middle stratosphere, and mostly negative, -1 to -2% per decade, in the lower stratosphere, but they are not statistically significant. The morphology and magnitude of ozone trends are similar to previous analyses (2000–2020 trends). Ozone trends in 2000–2024 predicted by chemistry-climate model simulations are in good agreement with combined satellite trends. In the upper stratosphere, models predict a slightly stronger ozone recovery than observations. In the lower stratosphere, both models and satellite observations report negative trends in the tropics, while modelled ozone trends are slightly positive at mid-latitudes. Ozone profile trends over several stations estimated from ground-based records capture the same overall vertical pattern of ozone trends as merged gridded satellite datasets. Analyses of regional ozone profile trends in 2003–2024 using merged satellite datasets confirmed the previous observations of a longitudinal structure in ozone trends in the NH mid-latitude stratosphere, with positive trends over Scandinavia and negative trends over Siberia. However, the magnitude of this dipole-like structure is reduced compared to previous analyses.

trends↗