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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Sharp, high numerical aperture (NA), nanoimprinted bare pyramid probe for optical mapping

The ability to correlate optical hyperspectral mapping and high resolution topographic imaging is critically important to gain deep insight into the structure–function relationship of nanomaterial systems. Scanning near-field optical microscopy can achieve this goal, but at the cost of significant effort in probe fabrication and experimental expertise. To overcome these two limitations, we have developed a low-cost and high-throughput nanoimprinting technique to integrate a sharp pyramid structure on the end facet of a single-mode fiber that can be scanned with a simple tuning-fork technique. The nanoimprinted pyramid has two main features: (1) a large taper angle (~70°), which determines the far-field confinement at the tip, resulting in a spatial resolution of 275 nm, an effective numerical aperture of 1.06, and (2) a sharp apex with a radius of curvature of ~20 nm, which enables high resolution topographic imaging. Optical performance is demonstrated through evanescent field distribution mapping of a plasmonic nanogroove sample, followed by hyperspectral photoluminescence mapping of nanocrystals using a fiber-in-fiber-out light coupling mode. Through comparative photoluminescence mapping on 2D monolayers, we also show a threefold improvement in spatial resolution over chemically etched fibers. These results show that the bare nanoimprinted near-field probes provide simple access to spectromicroscopy correlated with high resolution topographic mapping and have the potential to advance reproducible fiber-tip-based scanning near-field microscopy.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2013

Optimization of energy window for {sup 90}Y bremsstrahlung SPECT imaging for detection tasks using the ideal observer with model-mismatch

Purpose: In yttrium-90 ({sup 90}Y) microsphere brachytherapy (radioembolization) of unresectable liver cancer, posttherapy {sup 90}Y bremsstrahlung single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) has been used to document the distribution of microspheres in the patient and to help predict potential side effects. The energy window used during projection acquisition can have a significant effect on image quality. Thus, using an optimal energy window is desirable. However, there has been great variability in the choice of energy window due to the continuous and broad energy distribution of {sup 90}Y bremsstrahlung photons. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the ideal observer (IO) is a widely used figure of merit (FOM) for optimizing the imaging system for detection tasks. The IO implicitly assumes a perfect model of the image formation process. However, for {sup 90}Y bremsstrahlung SPECT there can be substantial model-mismatch (i.e., difference between the actual image formation process and the model of it assumed in reconstruction), and the amount of the model-mismatch depends on the energy window. It is thus important to account for the degradation of the observer performance due to model-mismatch in the optimization of the energy window. The purpose of this paper is to optimize the energy window for {sup 90}Y bremsstrahlung SPECT for a detection task while taking into account the effects of the model-mismatch. Methods: An observer, termed the ideal observer with model-mismatch (IO-MM), has been proposed previously to account for the effects of the model-mismatch on IO performance. In this work, the AUC for the IO-MM was used as the FOM for the optimization. To provide a clinically realistic object model and imaging simulation, the authors used a background-known-statistically and signal-known-statistically task. The background was modeled as multiple compartments in the liver with activity parameters independently following a Gaussian distribution; the signal was modeled as a tumor with a Gaussian-distributed activity parameter located randomly with equal probability at one of three positions. The IO test statistics (i.e., likelihood ratios) were estimated using Markov-chain Monte Carlo methods. The authors realistically modeled human anatomy using a digital phantom code, and realistically simulated {sup 90}Y bremsstrahlung SPECT imaging with a clinical SPECT system and typical imaging parameters using a previously validated Monte Carlo bremsstrahlung simulation method. Model-mismatch was included by modeling image formation process in the calculation of IO test statistics using an analytic modeling method previously developed for quantitative {sup 90}Y bremsstrahlung SPECT. To demonstrate the effects of the model-mismatch on the detection task, the authors optimized the energy window both with and without model-mismatch included in the IO. Results: For all the energy windows, the AUC values for the IO-MM were smaller than that for the IO. The optimal windows for the IO-MM and the IO were 80-180 and 60-400 keV, respectively. Conclusions: The authors have demonstrated the degradation of the ideal performance due to model-mismatch and optimized the energy window for {sup 90}Y bremsstrahlung SPECT for detection tasks by accounting for the effects of the model-mismatch. The obtained optimal window was much narrower when taking into account the model-mismatch and similar to that obtained previously for estimation tasks.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Seismic moment tensor classification using elliptical distribution functions on the hypersphere

Discrimination of underground explosions from naturally occurring earthquakes and other anthropogenic sources is one of the fundamental challenges of nuclear explosion monitoring. In an operational setting, the number of events that can be thoroughly investigated by analysts is limited by available resources. The capability to rapidly screen out events that can be robustly identified as not being explosions is, therefore, of great potential benefit. Nevertheless, possible mis-classification of explosions as earthquakes currently limits the use of screening methods for verification of test-ban treaties. Moment tensors provide a physics-based classification tool for the characterization of different seismic sources and have enabled the advent of new techniques for discriminating between earthquakes and explosions. Following normalization and projection of their six-degree vectors onto the hypersphere, existing screening approaches use spherically symmetric metrics to determine whether any new moment tensor may have been an explosion. Here, we show that populations of moment tensors for both earthquakes and explosions are anisotropically distributed on the hypersphere. Distributions possessing elliptical symmetry, such as the scaled von Mises–Fisher distribution, therefore provide a better description of these populations than the existing spherically symmetric models. We describe a method that uses these elliptical distributions in combination with a Bayesian classifier to achieve successful classification rates of 99 per cent for explosions and 98 per cent for earthquakes using existing catalogues of events from the western United States. The 1983 May 5 Crowdie underground nuclear test and 2018 July 20 DAG-1 deep-borehole chemical explosion are the only two explosions out of 140 that are incorrectly classified. Application of the method to the 2006–2017 nuclear tests in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea yields 100 per cent identification rates and we provide a simple routine MTid for general usage. The approach provides a means to rapidly assess the likelihood of an event being an explosion and can be built into monitoring workflows that rely on simultaneously assessing multiple different discrimination metrics.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

SU-E-T-146: Effects of Uncertainties of Radiation Sensitivity of Biological Modelling for Treatment Planning

Purpose: The aim of this study was to evaluate the distribution of uncertainty of cell survival by radiation, and assesses the usefulness of stochastic biological model applying for gaussian distribution. Methods: For single cell experiments, exponentially growing cells were harvested from the standard cell culture dishes by trypsinization, and suspended in test tubes containing 1 ml of MEM(2x10{sup 6} cells/ml). The hypoxic cultures were treated with 95% N{sub 2}−5% CO{sub 2} gas for 30 minutes. In vitro radiosensitization was also measured in EMT6/KU single cells to add radiosensitizer under hypoxic conditions. X-ray irradiation was carried out by using an Xray unit (Hitachi X-ray unit, model MBR-1505R3) with 0.5 mm Al/1.0 mm Cu filter, 150 kV, 4 Gy/min). In vitro assay, cells on the dish were irradiated with 1 Gy to 24 Gy, respectively. After irradiation, colony formation assays were performed. Variations of biological parameters were investigated at standard cell culture(n=16), hypoxic cell culture(n=45) and hypoxic cell culture(n=21) with radiosensitizers, respectively. The data were obtained by separate schedule to take account for the variation of radiation sensitivity of cell cycle. Results: At standard cell culture, hypoxic cell culture and hypoxic cell culture with radiosensitizers, median and standard deviation of alpha/beta ratio were 37.1±73.4 Gy, 9.8±23.7 Gy, 20.7±21.9 Gy, respectively. Average and standard deviation of D{sub 50} were 2.5±2.5 Gy, 6.1±2.2 Gy, 3.6±1.3 Gy, respectively. Conclusion: In this study, we have challenged to apply these uncertainties of parameters for the biological model. The variation of alpha values, beta values, D{sub 50} as well as cell culture might have highly affected by probability of cell death. Further research is in progress for precise prediction of the cell death as well as tumor control probability for treatment planning.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling Framework for Bulk Electric Grid Impacts from HEMP E1 and E3 Effects (Tasks 3.1 Final Report)

This report presents a framework to evaluate the impact of a high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) event on a bulk electric power grid. This report limits itself to modeling the impact of EMP E1 and E3 components. The co-simulation of E1 and E3 is presented in detail, and the focus of the paper is on the framework rather than actual results. This approach is highly conservative as E1 and E3 are not maximized with the same event characteristics and may only slightly overlap. The actual results shown in this report are based on a synthetic grid with synthetic data and a limited exemplary EMP model. The framework presented can be leveraged and used to analyze the impact of other threat scenarios, both manmade and natural disasters. This report d escribes a Monte-Carlo based methodology to probabilistically quantify the transient response of the power grid to a HEMP event. The approach uses multiple fundamental steps to characterize the system response to HEMP events, focused on the E1 and E3 components of the event. 1) Obtain component failure data related to HEMP events testing of components and creating component failure models. Use the component failure model to create component failure conditional probability density function (PDF) that is a function of the HEMP induced terminal voltage. 2) Model HEMP scenarios and calculate the E1 coupled voltage profiles seen by all system components. Model the same HEMP scenarios and calculate the transformer reactive power consumption profiles due to E3. 3) Sample each component failure PDF to determine which grid components will fail, due to the E1 voltage spike, for each scenario. 4) Perform dynamic simulations that incorporate the predicted component failures from E1 and reactive power consumption at each transformer affected by E3. These simulations allow for secondary transients to affect the relays/protection remaining in service which can lead to cascading outages. 5) Identify the locations and amount of load lost for each scenario through grid dynamic simulation. This can be an indication of the immediate grid impacts from a HEMP event. In addition, perform more detailed analysis to determine critical nodes and system trends. 6) To help realize the longer-term impacts, a security constrained alternating current optimal power flow (ACOPF) is run to maximize critical load served. This report describes a modeling framework to assess the systemic grid impacts due to a HEMP event. This stochastic simulation framework generates a large amount of data for each Monte Carlo replication, including HEMP location and characteristics, relay and component failures, E3 GIC profiles, cascading dynamics including voltage and frequency over time, and final system state. This data can then be analyzed to identify trends, e.g., unique system behavior modes or critical components whose failure is more likely to cause serious systemic effects. The proposed analysis process is demonstrated on a representative system. In order to draw realistic conclusions of the impact of a HEMP event on the grid, a significant amount of work remains with respect to modeling the impact on various grid components.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Efficient Probabilistic Prediction and Uncertainty Quantification of Tropical Cyclone–Driven Storm Tides and Inundation

Abstract This study proposes and assesses a methodology to obtain high-quality probabilistic predictions and uncertainty information of near-landfall tropical cyclone–driven (TC-driven) storm tide and inundation with limited time and resources. Forecasts of TC track, intensity, and size are perturbed according to quasi-random Korobov sequences of historical forecast errors with assumed Gaussian and uniform statistical distributions. These perturbations are run in an ensemble of hydrodynamic storm tide model simulations. The resulting set of maximum water surface elevations are dimensionality reduced using Karhunen–Loève expansions and then used as a training set to develop a polynomial chaos (PC) surrogate model from which global sensitivities and probabilistic predictions can be extracted. The maximum water surface elevation is extrapolated over dry points incorporating energy head loss with distance to properly train the surrogate for predicting inundation. We find that the surrogate constructed with third-order PCs using elastic net penalized regression with leave-one-out cross validation provides the most robust fit across training and test sets. Probabilistic predictions of maximum water surface elevation and inundation area by the surrogate model at 48-h lead time for three past U.S. landfalling hurricanes (Irma in 2017, Florence in 2018, and Laura in 2020) are found to be reliable when compared to best track hindcast simulation results, even when trained with as few as 19 samples. The maximum water surface elevation is most sensitive to perpendicular track-offset errors for all three storms. Laura is also highly sensitive to storm size and has the least reliable prediction. Significance Statement The purpose of this study is to develop and evaluate a methodology that can be used to provide high-quality probabilistic predictions of hurricane-induced storm tide and inundation with limited time and resources. This is important for emergency management purposes during or after the landfall of hurricanes. Our results show that sampling forecast errors using quasi-random sequences combined with machine learning techniques that fit polynomial functions to the data are well suited to this task. The polynomial functions also have the benefit of producing exact sensitivity indices of storm tide and inundation to the forecasted hurricane properties such as path, intensity, and size, which can be used for uncertainty estimation. The code implementing the presented methodology is publicly available on GitHub.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Artificial intelligence models, photos, and data associated with the manuscript “Quantifying Streambed Grain Size, Uncertainty, and Hydrobiogeochemical Parameters Using Machine Learning Model YOLO” (v2)

This data package is associated with the manuscript “Quantifying Streambed Grain Size, Uncertainty, and Hydrobiogeochemical Parameters Using Machine Learning Model YOLO” published in Water Resources Research (Chen et al., 2024). This data package includes the training, validation, testing, and prediction data used by the artificial intelligence (AI) model for automated grain size and hydro-biogeochemistry quantification using streambed photos. The grain size data are extracted for each photo using You Look Only Once (YOLO), a pre-trained object detection model. This data package was originally published in October 2023. It was updated August 2025 (v2; new and modified files). File and folder names were not revised to indicate changes. See the change history section in the readme for more details. Please see flmd.csv for a list of all files contained in this data package and descriptions for each. Please see dd.csv for a data dictionary that defines the column headers of .csv files in the data package. This dataset is comprised of one data folder containing (1) file-level metadata; (2) data dictionary; (3) readme; and (4) six subfolders. Subfolders 1 to 4 include the training, validation, testing, and prediction data. Subfolder 5_Summary includes the summary results of different combinations of training, validation, testing, and prediction data. Subfolder 6_SupplementalData includes additional data downloaded from public sources (Kaufman et al., 2023a; Kaufman et al., 2023b; Garefalakis et al., 2023; Mair et al., 2024; https://github.com/river-corridors-sfa/Geospatial_variables). In total, the data package includes 110 folders and 44,283 files. These files include 9,047 .jpg photos, 1 .png photo, 3 .tif photos; 26,639 photo labels and individual grain sizes and probability from AI (.txt); 8,447 grain size distribution data (.dat); and 126 CSV files for results summary, and 14 required metadata files (.xlsx). The summary CSV files contain 68 columns and approximately 2,200 rows that represent photo names, site locations, recording time, GPS coordinates, grains sizes (D10, D50, D60, and D84), number of grains, and additional hydro-biogeochemical data such as water depth, flow velocity, Manning’s coefficient, friction factor, hydraulic conductivity, permeability, streambed interstitial velocity magnitude, mass transfer rate, and nitrate uptake velocity. The photos were obtained from 75 sites in the Yakima River Basin and the Columbia River shorelines, and other associated data from samples and sensors obtained when the photos were taken are publicly available (Fulton et al. 2022; Grieger et al. 2023). All files are .csv, .txt, .dat, .jpg, or .pdf. We acknowledge the Yakama Nation as owners and caretakers of the lands where we collected some of these data. We thank the Confederated Tribes and Bands of the Yakama Nation Tribal Council and Yakama Nation Fisheries for working with us to facilitate sample collection and optimization of data usage according to their values and worldview.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Crustal and uppermost mantle structure in the Middle East: assessing constraints provided by jointly modelling Ps and Sp receiver functions and Rayleigh wave group velocity dispersion curves

Seismic velocity models are found, along with uncertainty estimates, for 11 sites in the Middle East by jointly modelling Ps and Sp receiver functions and surface (Rayleigh) wave group velocity dispersion. The approach performs a search for models that satisfy goodness-of-fit criteria guided by a variant of simulated annealing and uses statistical tools to assess these products of searches. These tools, a parameter correlation matrix and marginal posterior probability density (PPD) function, allow us to evaluate quantitatively the constraints that each data type imposes on model parameters and to identify portions of each model that are well-constrained relative to other portions. This joint modelling technique, which we call ‘multi-objective optimization for seismology’, does not require a good starting solution, although such a model can be incorporated easily, if available, and can reduce the computation time significantly. Applying the process described above to broadband seismic data reveals that crustal thickness varies from 15 km beneath Djibouti (station ATD) to 45 km beneath Saudi Arabia (station RAYN). A pronounced low velocity zone for both Vp and Vs is present at a depth of ~12 km beneath station KIV located in northern part of greater Caucasus, which may be due to the presence of a relatively young volcano. Similarly, we also noticed a 6-km-thick low velocity zone for Vp beginning at 20 km depth beneath seismic station AGIN, on the Anatolian plateau, while positive velocity gradients prevail elsewhere in eastern Turkey. Beneath station CSS, located in Cyprus, an anomalously slow layer is found in the uppermost mantle, which may indicate the presence of altered lithospheric material. Crustal P- and S-wave velocities beneath station D2, located in the northeastern portion of central Zagros, range between 5.2–6.2 and 3.2–3.8 km s -1 , respectively. Finally, in Oman, we find a Moho depth of 34.0 ± 1.0 km and 25.0 ± 1.0 to 30.0 ± 1.0 km beneath stations S02 and S04, respectively.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Impact of spot size on plan quality of spot scanning proton radiosurgery for peripheral brain lesions

Purpose: To determine the plan quality of proton spot scanning (SS) radiosurgery as a function of spot size (in-air sigma) in comparison to x-ray radiosurgery for treating peripheral brain lesions. Methods: Single-field optimized (SFO) proton SS plans with sigma ranging from 1 to 8 mm, cone-based x-ray radiosurgery (Cone), and x-ray volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT) plans were generated for 11 patients. Plans were evaluated using secondary cancer risk and brain necrosis normal tissue complication probability (NTCP). Results: For all patients, secondary cancer is a negligible risk compared to brain necrosis NTCP. Secondary cancer risk was lower in proton SS plans than in photon plans regardless of spot size (p = 0.001). Brain necrosis NTCP increased monotonically from an average of 2.34/100 (range 0.42/100–4.49/100) to 6.05/100 (range 1.38/100–11.6/100) as sigma increased from 1 to 8 mm, compared to the average of 6.01/100 (range 0.82/100–11.5/100) for Cone and 5.22/100 (range 1.37/100–8.00/100) for VMAT. An in-air sigma less than 4.3 mm was required for proton SS plans to reduce NTCP over photon techniques for the cohort of patients studied with statistical significance (p = 0.0186). Proton SS plans with in-air sigma larger than 7.1 mm had significantly greater brain necrosis NTCP than photon techniques (p = 0.0322). Conclusions: For treating peripheral brain lesions—where proton therapy would be expected to have the greatest depth-dose advantage over photon therapy—the lateral penumbra strongly impacts the SS plan quality relative to photon techniques: proton beamlet sigma at patient surface must be small (<7.1 mm for three-beam single-field optimized SS plans) in order to achieve comparable or smaller brain necrosis NTCP relative to photon radiosurgery techniques. Achieving such small in-air sigma values at low energy (<70 MeV) is a major technological challenge in commercially available proton therapy systems.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2011

Comprehensive Fuel Performance Model Development and Simulation for TRISO Fuel

High Temperature Gas Reactor (HTGR), widely recognized as one of the top candidates for the Next Generation Nuclear Power-plant (NGNP) fleet, has received ever-increasing interest due to its superior safety and many other desirable features. TRISO fuel particles are the basic form of the fuel used in both pebble-bed and prismatic reactors. Since they are a key component of the HTGR core design, the success of the reactor depends on the safety and quality of the TRISO particles. During operation, a TRISO particle undergoes complex thermo-mechanical processes. Fission gases accumulate inside the kernel and the buffer layer, and lead to buildup of internal pressure. Uneven thermal conditions lead to asymmetric thermal expansion. The pyrolytic carbon, in both the IPyC and OPyC layers, is known to experience dimensional change (shrinkage or swelling) under fast neutron irradiation. In the mean time, both the IPyC and OPyC layers creep as a function of stress and fast neutron fluence. Macro cracks in the IPyC layer, corrosion in the SiC layer due to chemical attack, and debonding at the interface between IPyC and SiC, have been observed in post-irradiation examinations. All these processes further complicate the stress states in a TRISO particle, and might lead to failure of a single coating layer or the particle as a whole. It is very difficult to duplicate the actual environment that a particle is exposed to in experiments. It is even more difficult to isolate one process from another, thus making it nearly impossible to evaluate the impacts that a particular process has on the fuel particle by conducting experiments. The problem can however at least partially be addressed by modeling and simulation. Hence, multi-dimensional, multi-physics and comprehensive models are greatly needed to simulate and evaluate the performance of a TRISO particle under normal and accidental conditions. Existing models are inadequate as they are usually one-dimensional models that over-simplified these processes or do not include all the main physics. The goal of this thesis is to develop a comprehensive, multi-dimensional and multi-physics model to simulate and evaluate TRISO fuel performance. It includes all the main processes taking place in the fuel particle. Three equally important components of this modeling exercise are: 1) 3D heat transfer and temperature distribution analysis; 2) 3D neutronics, heat generation, and fission gas generation and release analysis; 3) 3D stress analysis and failure prediction of the TRISO particle. The 3D thermal model consists of the solution of the heat conduction equation using the finite difference technique. The temperature calculated using this model is compared to analytical solutions and to the results reported in literature. Good agreements are observed. Thermal models are developed to calculate temperature distribution in a pebble under different power and asymmetric convective boundary conditions caused by, for example, contacts with other pebbles. Three-dimensional temperature distribution in a TRISO particle is also calculated under various conditions such as in the presence of an off-center gas bubble. Three-dimensional neutronics models are developed using MCNP5/X. Burnup calculations are performed to track the number densities of a few important isotopes and to calculate gas production. The fractional gas release on both intra- and inter-granular level are calculated using the White and Tucker’s model. The gas pressure inside the buffer layer is also quantified. Finally, 3D axisymmetric stress models are developed using an open-source finite element code, FEAP. Modifications are introduced to FEAP to include PyC shrinkage and creep, etc. The modified code is benchmarked against Miller’s results, and good agreements are observed. A number of variables are studied to evaluate their impacts on stresses and failure probabilities. These variables include creep constant, creep Poisson’s ratio, irradiation temperature, BAF, layer thickness, etc. Some transient thermal conditions such as power surge, and defective cases such as a radial crack in IPyC, debonding and corrosion to SiC, are also studied. Among all, a few variables/conditions have significant impacts on stresses and failure probabilities, namely: shrinkage strain, creep constant, creep Poisson’s ratio, particle size, irradiation temperature, BAF and cracked IPyC. Order of magnitude of stresses resulting from temperature changes, pressure buildup due to gas generation, and due to PyC shrinkage/creep show that in the case of TRISO particle (when using specific empirical constants or existing dataset found in literature to calculate shrinkage/creep strains), stresses due to temperature changes and internal gas pressure are orders of magnitude lower than those resulting from shrinkage/creep. Failure probabilities of both IPyC and SiC are also calculated. The failure probability of IPyC under most conditions borderlines with the design requirement (1E-4) except under low irradiation temperature. The failure probability of SiC under normal conditions is minimal because it is always under compression; except when there is a radial crack in IPyC, in which case the stress in part of SiC becomes tensile and the failure probability is higher than 1E-4, and increases at higher burnup. The comprehensive fuel performance model developed in this work and implemented in a suite of computer codes simulates the thermo-mechanical behavior of a TRISO fuel particle under irradiation. This work leads to a better understanding of TRISO fuel particle evolution over its lifetime, and provides insights in how to improve the safety and reliability of TRISO fuel. The models developed here can be useful for other purposes related to TRISO fuel or for fuel performance evaluation of other forms of nuclear fuels. (author)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2010

Wind Energy Management System Integration Project Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

The power system balancing process, which includes the scheduling, real time dispatch (load following) and regulation processes, is traditionally based on deterministic models. Since the conventional generation needs time to be committed and dispatched to a desired megawatt level, the scheduling and load following processes use load and wind power production forecasts to achieve future balance between the conventional generation and energy storage on the one side, and system load, intermittent resources (such as wind and solar generation) and scheduled interchange on the other side. Although in real life the forecasting procedures imply some uncertainty around the load and wind forecasts (caused by forecast errors), only their mean values are actually used in the generation dispatch and commitment procedures. Since the actual load and intermittent generation can deviate from their forecasts, it becomes increasingly unclear (especially, with the increasing penetration of renewable resources) whether the system would be actually able to meet the conventional generation requirements within the look-ahead horizon, what the additional balancing efforts would be needed as we get closer to the real time, and what additional costs would be incurred by those needs. In order to improve the system control performance characteristics, maintain system reliability, and minimize expenses related to the system balancing functions, it becomes necessary to incorporate the predicted uncertainty ranges into the scheduling, load following, and, in some extent, into the regulation processes. It is also important to address the uncertainty problem comprehensively, by including all sources of uncertainty (load, intermittent generation, generators’ forced outages, etc.) into consideration. All aspects of uncertainty such as the imbalance size (which is the same as capacity needed to mitigate the imbalance) and generation ramping requirement must be taken into account. The latter unique features make this work a significant step forward toward the objective of incorporating of wind, solar, load, and other uncertainties into power system operations. In this report, a new methodology to predict the uncertainty ranges for the required balancing capacity, ramping capability and ramp duration is presented. Uncertainties created by system load forecast errors, wind and solar forecast errors, generation forced outages are taken into account. The uncertainty ranges are evaluated for different confidence levels of having the actual generation requirements within the corresponding limits. The methodology helps to identify system balancing reserve requirement based on a desired system performance levels, identify system “breaking points”, where the generation system becomes unable to follow the generation requirement curve with the user-specified probability level, and determine the time remaining to these potential events. The approach includes three stages: statistical and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence intervals. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis incorporating all sources of uncertainty and parameters of a continuous (wind forecast and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and failures to start up) nature. Preliminary simulations using California Independent System Operator (California ISO) real life data have shown the effectiveness of the proposed approach. A tool developed based on the new methodology described in this report will be integrated with the California ISO systems. Contractual work is currently in place to integrate the tool with the AREVA EMS system.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2011

THE EVOLUTION OF CATACLYSMIC VARIABLES AS REVEALED BY THEIR DONOR STARS

We present an attempt to reconstruct the complete evolutionary path followed by cataclysmic variables (CVs), based on the observed mass-radius relationship of their donor stars. Along the way, we update the semi-empirical CV donor sequence presented previously by one of us, present a comprehensive review of the connection between CV evolution and the secondary stars in these systems, and reexamine most of the commonly used magnetic braking (MB) recipes, finding that even conceptually similar ones can differ greatly in both magnitude and functional form. The great advantage of using donor radii to infer mass-transfer and angular-momentum-loss (AML) rates is that they sample the longest accessible timescales and are most likely to represent the true secular (evolutionary average) rates. We show explicitly that if CVs exhibit long-term mass-transfer-rate fluctuations, as is often assumed, the expected variability timescales are so long that other tracers of the mass-transfer rate-including white dwarf (WD) temperatures-become unreliable. We carefully explore how much of the radius difference between CV donors and models of isolated main-sequence stars may be due to mechanisms other than mass loss. The tidal and rotational deformation of Roche-lobe-filling stars produces {approx_equal} 4.5% radius inflation below the period gap and {approx_equal} 7.9% above. A comparison of stellar models to mass-radius data for non-interacting stars suggests a real offset of {approx_equal} 1.5% for fully convective stars (i.e., donors below the gap) and {approx_equal} 4.9% for partially radiative ones (donors above the gap). We also show that donor bloating due to irradiation is probably smaller than, and at most comparable to, these effects. After calibrating our models to account for these issues, we fit self-consistent evolution sequences to our compilation of donor masses and radii. In the standard model of CV evolution, AMLs below the period gap are assumed to be driven solely by gravitational radiation (GR), while AMLs above the gap are usually described by an MB law first suggested by Rappaport et al. We adopt simple scaled versions of these AML recipes and find that these are able to match the data quite well. The optimal scaling factors turn out to be f{sub GR} = 2.47 {+-} 0.22 below the gap and f{sub MB} = 0.66 {+-} 0.05 above (the errors here are purely statistical, and the standard model corresponds to f{sub GR} = f{sub MB} = 1). This revised model describes the mass-radius data significantly better than the standard model. Some of the most important implications and applications of our results are as follows. (1) The revised evolution sequence yields correct locations for the minimum period and the upper edge of the period gap; the standard sequence does not. (2) The observed spectral types of CV donors are compatible with both standard and revised models. (3) A direct comparison of predicted and observed WD temperatures suggests an even higher value for f{sub GR}, but this comparison is sensitive to the assumed mean WD mass and the possible existence of mass-transfer-rate fluctuations. (4) The predicted absolute magnitudes of donor stars in the near-infrared form a lower envelope around the observed absolute magnitudes for systems with parallax distances. This is true for all of our sequences, so any of them can be used to set firm lower limits on (or obtain rough estimates of) the distances toward CVs based only on P{sub orb} and single epoch near-IR measurements. (5) Both standard and revised sequences predict that short-period CVs should be susceptible to dwarf nova (DN) eruptions, consistent with observations. However, both sequences also predict that the fraction of DNe among long-period CVs should decline with P{sub orb} above the period gap. Observations suggest the opposite behavior, and we discuss the possible explanations for this discrepancy. (6) Approximate orbital period distributions constructed from our evolution sequences suggest that the ratio of long-period CVs to short-period, pre-bounce CVs is about 3 x higher for the revised sequence than the standard one. This may resolve a long-standing problem in CV evolution. Tables describing our donor and evolution sequences are provided in electronically readable form.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Initial ASME code rule analysis on Simple and Full assessment

ASME & ASTM codes present simple and full assessment methodologies to qualify nuclear grade graphite components. This report explains the theory behind the statistical portion of the codes and describes the issues discussed in a 2020 workshop in the simple assessment, as well as the full assessment. The methodology for the full assessment was developed by Hindley []. He used a validation methodology to match the experimental average failure load of test specimens from several geometries to the calculated 50% POF load to tune the grouping criteria parameters based on an RMSE penalty function. The grouping criteria consists of a minimum volume to satisfy the weakest link theory of the Weibull distribution and a minimum stress range parameter. Hindley’s work found a minimum link volume of 10 times the grain size and a stress range parameter of 7% [satisfy the validation requirements. Several studies found that the link volume of 10 times the grain size was not satisfactory for the volume grouping criteria for graphite grades with fine grains. ASME 2021 code adopted a new volume grouping criteria based on fracture toughness for calculation of the process zone volume. However, errors were found in the ASME 2021 code process zone volume equation and the question is now open as to what volume grouping criteria is satisfactory. This report presents results from sensitivity studies that were done to evaluate the volume grouping criteria effect on the full assessment POF. This report also presents results from sensitivity studies on other aspects of the code that affect the POF, the mesh size and the choice of the Weibull threshold parameter. All three sensitivity studies: the volume grouping criteria, the mesh size, and the threshold parameter choice are found to affect the component qualification decision for components of structural reliability class 1 (SRC-1). The sensitivity analysis results are presented in the body of the report for NBG-18, which is the same grade of graphite as Hindley used in his thesis. Results from NBG-17, IG-110, 2114, and PCEA are presented in the Appendix. For NBG-18, it was found that increasing the threshold increases the POF, finer meshes result in higher POFs, and that smaller link volume requirements lead to higher POFs (which is inconsistent with Hindley’s findings). This report proposes a new validation study similar to Hindley’s []. The purpose of the new validation study is to tune the threshold, mesh size and grouping criteria based on results from multiple grades of graphite, including finer grain graphites T220 (1-3 microns) and NG-CT-50 (5 microns). The test specimens will be broken at 3 labs, such that we can measure between lab measurement variability, with at least 5 test specimens per lab such that the within lab uncertainty can also be measured. Hindley’s validation method tried matching the average experimental load with the median. The future study will attempt to match failures at lower percentiles, which would be closer to the SRC POF limit. We are currently looking into what geometries make sense and the best method to measure multi-axial stress states. These design decisions are still being set.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Diagnostics: Chapter 8 of the special issue: on the path to tokamak burning plasma operation

This chapter presents the activity conducted by the ITPA topical group (TG) on Diagnostics over about the last 15 years. Following a general introduction of the ITER Diagnostics led by their measurement roles, the document is organized in several subchapters detailing the design support, research and development activity conducted by each of the specialist working groups (WGs) of the TG. Please note that the magnetic diagnostics were supported at the TG without a specific WG. Their status is included in the general introduction. In the following some highlights of the subchapter’s contents are provided. Recent advances in ITER first wall (FW) diagnostics for the measurements of plasma-metallic wall interaction in support of the ITER research plan are reported. An InfraRed imaging Video Bolometer for ITER has been developed and tested on several tokamaks to measure the radiated power loss. A laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) technique which utilizes a pulsed laser beam to ablate locally by forming a crater, will measure local tritium inventory in the FW material. Real-time Residual Gas Analyzers will measure the neutral gas composition in a divertor port and an equatorial port during plasma operation. Due to the full metallic FW environment, the plasma-wall interaction in ITER will face several challenges such as the compromised radiated power and divertor heat flux measurements by reflection. Ray tracing and analysis codes have been developed to eliminate and correct the effects of reflection in the measurements. The characteristics of the reflecting surfaces depending on the roughness and angle of the incidence have been measured by dedicated experiments, and the results were applied to the reflection elimination. For the measurement of the metallic impurity radiation induced by eroded metallic atoms, a vacuum ultraviolet spectrometer has been developed and tested. An extensive thermonuclear diagnostic suite will be required to support the operation of ITER and the planned experimental program for future burning plasma experiments. Due to the harsh environmental conditions, the implementation of diagnostic systems in ITER is a major challenge. These conditions include high levels of neutron and gamma fluxes, neutron heating, particle bombardment. Therefore, the selection and design of diagnostic systems must take into account a number of phenomena previously unseen in diagnostic design. For this reason, the measurement of neutrons and confined or lost fast ions, with particular emphasis on alpha particles, is critical to ITER. The diagnostics associated with these measurements will be important for future plasma-burning experiments at ITER. The high neutron emission and very large plasma size in ITER make neutron diagnostics the main diagnostic method used to measure plasma parameters such as fusion power, fusion power density, ion temperature, energy of fast ions and their spatial distributions in the plasma core. Active spectroscopy techniques are methods where a neutral particle beam is injected into the plasma and information on plasma parameters is extracted from the measurement of line emission resulting from the beam-plasma interaction, either by plasma ions or by beam atoms. Spatial localization is achieved by crossing the beamline and multiple observation lines. The ITER plasma will be a high temperature, moderately dense, fully ionized collisional plasma. The plasma facing surfaces are principally metallic being fashioned from beryllium or tungsten but many other elements, arising from either structural or from operational needs, may enter this plasma. The energy range of the emitted photons range from meV (infra-red) to multi keV (x-rays) and originate from all areas of the plasma volume. The primary role of passive emission diagnostics is to identify what is in the plasma from spectral signatures. Extracting quantitative information from these measurements such as impurity content, ion temperature, rotation, degree of detachment and radiated power depends on calibrated instruments, a physics model of the atomic and molecular processes and plasma transport and an analysis workflow that takes into account environmental effects such as reflections. The particular needs for ITER have prompted a multi-machine, many-year effort to address all these aspects and this chapter reviews the work on diagnostic design, experiments and new analysis techniques. An overview of the laser diagnostics to be implemented on ITER is also provided in this paper. This includes descriptions of the Thomson scattering in the core, edge and divertor regions, polarimetry and interferometry diagnostics used for measuring plasma density and also measurements of helium density in the divertor using Laser Induced Flourescence. Techniques which can allow improvements on current measurements are also addressed in particular expanding poloidal polarimetry measurements to measure field fluctuations and proposed use of dispersion interferometery which has a number of advantages over existing methods. This paper identifies particular areas where further research and testing on existing tokamaks is useful even at this advanced stage to inform the design of diagnostics for ITER. Outstanding areas of concern for the implementation of laser diagnostics, in particular with a view to reliable operation are identified. An overview of the latest developments of microwave diagnostic systems and techniques is given. The primary focus is the contributions for ITER—the next step burning plasma experiment—which is supplemented by describing recent progress of techniques applicable for fusion experiments beyond ITER. The contributions are intentionally kept concise, and are being supplemented by a rich list of references for further studies. Radiation induced effects are receiving continuous and well-deserved attention of the ITER diagnostic community and they are in many cases one of the primary design drivers of the ITER diagnostic systems. The paper summarizes recent progress in this area focusing primarily on the ITER diagnostics but in some cases provides also outlook for the possible solutions for even more demanding radiation environment of fusion reactors beyond ITER. Despite advancements in the area of modeling and simulation of various radiation induced effects, experimental testing in a nuclear environment as close as possible to the target one is still seen as unavoidable for proper qualification of particular diagnostic functional elements. Recent advancement within three diagnostic areas: optical diagnostics, magnetics and bolometers is covered. Encouraging results on qualification of silica glass vacuum window assemblies are presented. In the area of magnetic sensors, progress of irradiation tests performed on ITER in-vessel LTCC inductive sensors is presented with outlook for novel technological approaches to inductive sensors utilizing thick printing and photolithography technologies being highlighted. Summary of advancements in the area of steady state magnetic field sensors based on Hall effect is given. New results of neutron irradiation test of the ITER borosilicate glass inserts for vacuum electrical feedthroughs are summarized finding negligible swelling at target level of neutron fluence. Off-line irradiation tests of fiber optic current sensors for plasma current measurement demonstrated that both for gamma doses up to 5 MGy and a total neutron fluence up to 10 15 cm −2 , radiation induced changes are still compatible with required measurement accuracy on ITER. The ITER bolometers are given as an example how considering radiation effects may influence the diagnostic design. Finally, outlook for future main R&D directions is outlined. All optical and laser-based diagnostics in ITER will be using mirrors to guide plasma radiation toward detectors, cameras and sensors. In the hostile plasma, radiation and particle environment the optical characteristics of diagnostic mirrors will degrade directly affecting the entire performance of involved diagnostic systems. An assessment of factors affecting mirror performance is provided. Among the prime adverse factors are deposition of plasma impurities, sputtering of mirror surface and steam ingress in the vicinity of mirrors. Within the International Tokamak Physics Activity with active support by ITER central team and domestic agencies, the structured research and development (R&D) program on mitigation of risks for diagnostic mirrors is underway. Within this program the mirror material development, the passive mitigation of mirror degradation by using diagnostic ducts and shutters along with an active mirror recovery program comprising the in-situ mirror cleaning and calibration is underway. Recent developments in diagnostic mirror R&D are described in this Chapter along with an example of their implementation of R&D solutions in ITER Infrared Thermography diagnostic. An assessment of still open engineering and physics questions, considerations on mirror risks during an early phase of ITER operation are given along with an overview of diagnostic mirror evolution in the late ITER operation stage toward the demonstration fusion power plant. Several crucial areas of diagnostic R&D outlined in ITER Research Plan are addressed. The basic control groups in a fusion reactor can be broken-down in five categories: (1) plasma position, magnetic configuration, and plasma current control, (2) profile control and confinement optimization, (3) MHD control and suppression, (4) edge dissipation control, radiation and plasma exhaust control and (5) break-down optimization. These categories are coupled via the physics (a control action in one domain will affect the other domains) and via shared actuators (e.g. ECRH for impurity accumulation avoidance, current density distribution control and MHD suppression). Consequently, a supervisory control system should determine the priority of the various control tasks, their couplings, and the interfaces with the safety and interlock system. For the systematic development of the various controllers taking the complexity of the plasma and the control system into account, a model-based approach is required. A short historical overview is given of the developments in systems and control theory and control engineering with special emphasis on those developments that are most relevant for Nuclear Fusion research and operation. An overview is given of the state of the field of fusion plasma control for the control categories. It will be shown how synthetic diagnostics are being developed in ITER and how they are used in diagnostic design and design validation and how they can be in model-based controller synthesis using relatively simple models. In modern control methods, multiple diagnostics are used to constrain relatively simple models. The constrained models provide an estimate for the state. This opens the route to state controllers, such as model predictive control. A major challenge in nuclear fusion research is the coherent combination of data from heterogeneous diagnostics and modeling codes for machine control and safety as well as physics studies. Measured data from different diagnostics often provide information about the same subset of physical parameters. Additionally, information provided by some diagnostics might be needed for the analysis of other diagnostics. A joint analysis of complementary and redundant data allows, e.g. to improve the reliability of parameter estimation, to increase the spatial and temporal resolution of profiles, to obtain synergistic effects, to consider diagnostics interdependencies and to find and resolve data inconsistencies. Physics-based modeling and parameter relationships provide additional information improving the treatment of ill-posed inversion problems. A coherent combination of all kind of available information within a probabilistic framework allows for improved data analysis results. The concept of integrated data analysis (IDA) in the framework of Bayesian probability theory is outlined and contrasted with conventional data analysis. Components of the probabilistic approach are summarized and specific ingredients beneficial for data analysis at fusion devices are discussed.

ITER↗
DOE OSTI2025

Triaxiality and shape dynamics in 70 Ge

The electromagnetic properties of low-lying states in 70 Ge were investigated via multi-step Coulomb excitation of a 70 Ge beam impinging on a 208 Pb target at the ATLAS facility of the Argonne National Laboratory. A total of 27 transitional elements and six diagonal matrix elements coupling 11 low-lying states, were extracted from the measured cross sections. These were used to calculate reduced transition probabilities, spectroscopic quadrupole moments, and rotational invariant shape parameters, providing enhanced precision and expanding on previous studies. The experimental data were compared within several theoretical frameworks, including the generalized triaxial rotor model, configuration interaction shell-model calculations, and computations within the combined frameworks of relativistic density functional theory and the five-dimensional collective Hamiltonian. The results demonstrate a good agreement with the experimental data and, in conjunction with calculations using a two-state mixing model, support significant triaxiality and strong mixing between the 0$^{+}_{1}$ and 0$^{+}_{2}$ states. This results in the magnitudes of their respective quadrupole deformations [β rms (0$^{+}_{1}$) = 0.228 (3), β rms (0$^{+}_{2}$) = 0.273 (1)] being more similar than previously observed. Furthermore, the implications of these results for understanding the complex shape coexistence phenomena, the role of triaxiality, and shape evolution along the Ge isotopic chain are discussed.

59 ≤ A ≤ 89↗
DOE OSTI2026

Longitudinal spin transfer to Λ hyperons in semi-inclusive deep inelastic scattering with the CLAS12 spectrometer

The polarization of Λ hyperons is preserved in the angular distribution of their decay products. This property allows one to study the spin structure of the Λ. In semi-inclusive deep inelastic scattering where a high energy lepton interacts with a nucleon target and one or more hadrons and the scattered lepton are detected in the final state, the probability for a struck quark to impart the polarization of the lepton to the Λ may be measured. In particular, in electron-proton scattering this quantity may be related to the longitudinal light quark polarization of the Λ. Currently, limited experimental data cannot discriminate between different models of Λ spin structure. This work reports on the measurement of the longitudinal spin transfer 𝐷$^{Λ}_{𝐿⁢𝐿′}$ to the Λ using data taken by the CLAS12 spectrometer at Jefferson Lab with a 10.6 GeV longitudinally polarized electron beam and an unpolarized hydrogen target. This measurement is the most precise to date, and, in comparison with theory predictions, it offers valuable insight into the relative dominance of current and target fragmentation in Λ production.

deep inelastic scattering↗