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At least 1,387 records · Page 77

Cation Translocation around Single Polyoxometalate-Organic Hybrid Cluster Regulated by Electrostatic and Cation-π Interactions

We report herein an interesting dynamic translocation process of countercations around one polyoxometalate(POM)–organic hybrid anionic cluster at various concentrations and temperatures. It was found that both electrostatic interactions and cation–π interactions regulate the position of small countercations around single clusters. The dynamic geometry and the symmetry of the hybrid macroions are largely affected by the type of counterions, as shown by nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy studies and all-atom molecular dynamics simulation. It is also shown that electrostatic interactions dominate over cation–π interactions in determining the locations of the counterions in the current system.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Gyroresonant wave-particle interactions in a dynamic magnetosphere

The response of the interaction mechanism to time-dependent perturbations in the magnetic field was examined using the global field compressions that occur during sudden commencements. This study was performed to assess the effect of nonequilibrium or dynamic magnetospheric processes on wave-particle interactions (WPI). It is shown that current theories of gyroresonant WPI, when modified to include a time-dependent magnetic field, can be used to predict the properties of WPI in a dynamic magnetospheric environment.

Gail, W. B.↗

Space Communications Responsive to Events Across Missions (SCREAM): An Investigation of Network Solutions for Transient Science Space Systems

Space Communications Responsive to Events Across Missions (SCREAM): An Investigation of Network Solutions for Transient Science Space Systems The National Academies have prioritized the pursuit of new scientific discoveries using diverse and temporally coordinated measurements from multiple ground and space-based observatories. Networked communications can enable such measurements by connecting individual observatories and allowing them to operate as a cohesive and purposefully designed system. Timely data flows across terrestrial and space communications networks are required to observe transient scientific events and processes. Currently, communications to space-based observatories experience large latencies due to manual service reservation and scheduling procedures, intermittent signal coverage, and network capacity constraints. If space communications network latencies could be reduced, new discoveries about dynamic scientific processes could be realized. However, science mission and network planners lack a systematic framework for defining, quantifying and evaluating timely space data flow implementation options for transient scientific observation scenarios involving multiple ground and space-based observatories. This dissertation presents a model-based systems engineering approach to investigate and develop network solutions to meet the needs of transient science space systems. First, a systematic investigation of the current transient science operations of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) Tracking and Data Relay Satellite (TDRS) space data network and the Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory resulted in a formal architectural model for transient science space systems. Two methods individual missions may use to achieve timely network services were defined, quantitatively modeled, and experimentally compared. Next, the architectural model was extended to describe two alternative ways to achieve timely and autonomous space data flows to multiple space-based observatories within the context of a purposefully designed transient science observation scenario. A quantitative multipoint space data flow modeling method based in queueing theory was defined. General system suitability metrics for timeliness, throughput, and capacity were specified to support the evaluation of alternative network data flow implementations. A hypothetical design study was performed to demonstrate the multipoint data flow modeling method and to evaluate alternative data flow implementations using TDRS. The merits of a proposed future TDRS broadcast service to implement multipoint data flows were quantified and compared to expected outcomes using the as-built TDRS network. Then, the architectural model was extended to incorporate commercial network service providers. Quantitative models for Globalstar and Iridium short messaging data services were developed based on publicly available sources. Financial cost was added to the set of system suitability metrics. The hypothetical design study was extended to compare the relative suitability of the as-built TDRS network with the commercial Globalstar and Iridium networks. Finally, results from this research are being applied by NASA missions and network planners. In 2020, Swift implemented the first automated command pipeline, increasing its expected gravitational wave follow-up detection rate by greater than 400%. Current NASA technology initiatives informed by this research will enable future space-based observatories to become interoperable sensing devices connected by a diverse ecosystem of network service providers.

Christopher J. Roberts↗

Control of unsteady separated flow associated with the dynamic stall of airfoils

An effort to understand and control the unsteady separated flow associated with the dynamic stall of airfoils was funded for three years through the NASA cooperative agreement program. As part of this effort a substantial data base was compiled detailing the effects various parameters have on the development of the dynamic stall flow field. Parameters studied include Mach number, pitch rate, and pitch history, as well as Reynolds number (through two different model chord lengths) and the condition of the boundary layer at the leading edge of the airfoil (through application of surface roughness). It was found for free stream Mach numbers as low as 0.4 that a region of supersonic flow forms on the leading edge of the suction surface of the airfoil at moderate angles of attack. The shocks which form in this supersonic region induce boundary-layer separation and advance the dynamic stall process. Under such conditions a supercritical airfoil profile is called for to produce a flow field having a weaker leading-edge pressure gradient and no leading-edge shocks. An airfoil having an adaptive-geometry, or dynamically deformable leading edge (DDLE), is under development as a unique active flow-control device. The DDLE, formed of carbon-fiber composite and fiberglass, can be flexed between a NACA 0012 profile and a supercritical profile in a controllable fashion while the airfoil is executing an angle-of-attack pitch-up maneuver. The dynamic stall data were recorded using point diffraction interferometry (PDI), a noninvasive measurement technique. A new high-speed cinematography system was developed for recording interferometric images. The system is capable of phase-locking with the pitching airfoil motion for real-time documentation of the development of the dynamic stall flow field. Computer-aided image analysis algorithms were developed for fast and accurate reduction of the images, improving interpretation of the results.

Wilder, M. C.↗

Dynamic Evolution of Mass and Physical Properties of Atmospheric Organic Aerosol under Solar Irradiance

Organic aerosol (OA) particles constitute a substantial fraction of sub-micron particulate mass in the atmosphere and play a critical role in climate system. OA undergoes dynamic aging processes in the atmosphere, with photolytic aging induced by ultraviolet solar irradiance being an important yet poorly characterized mechanism. Knowledge gaps persist regarding the role of volatility transformations during photolytic aging on the OA mass decay kinetics and the evolution of climate-relevant properties, such as hygroscopicity, hindering the model evaluation of OA spatiotemporal distributions and atmospheric budgets. In this study, we conduct isothermal photolytic aging experiments on both laboratory-generated secondary organic aerosols and ambient-collected particles from urban Atlanta, utilizing a high-sensitivity Quartz Crystal Microbalance. Our results reveal that photolytic aging reduces 40–66% of the low-volatility OA mass with lifetimes ranging from 8 to 200 hours under solar irradiance, and 44–92% of the photolytic mass loss is through slow evaporation of semi- or intermediate-volatile products, kinetically limited by their volatility. We observe up to ±50% changes in OA hygroscopicity with the transformation of fresh OA to photo-recalcitrant low-volatility products, associated with changes in oxygen-to-carbon ratio and molecular weight. A kinetic model incorporating photolytic volatility transformation provides a cohesive explanation for the observed photolysis-induced changes in mass, volatility, and hygroscopicity. Our results can help constrain model representation of the dynamic evolutions of mass and climate-relevant properties during photolytic aging processes of the ambient OA, improving our understanding of OA atmospheric behavior and climate impact.

Bai, Bin↗

Influence of Long-Range Forces on the Transition States and Dynamics of NaCl Ion-Pair Dissociation in Water

We study NaCl ion-pair dissociation in a dilute aqueous solution using computer simulations both for the full system with long-range Coulomb interactions and for a well-chosen reference system with short-range intermolecular interactions. Analyzing results using concepts from Local Molecular Field (LMF) theory and the recently proposed AI-based analysis tool “State predictive information bottleneck” (SPIB), we show that the system with short-range interactions can accurately reproduce the transition rate for the dissociation process, the dynamics for moving between the underlying metastable states, and the transition state ensemble. Contributions from long-range interactions can be largely neglected for these processes because long-range forces from the direct interionic Coulomb interactions are almost completely canceled (>90%) by those from solvent interactions over the length scale where the transition takes place. Thus, for this important monovalent ion-pair system, short-range forces alone are able to capture detailed consequences of the collective solvent motion, allowing the use of physically suggestive and computationally efficient short-range models for the dissociation event. Here, we believe that the framework here should be applicable to disentangling mechanisms for more complex processes such as multivalent ion disassociation, where previous work has suggested that long-range contributions may be more important.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Coherent diffractive imaging of time-evolving samples with improved temporal resolution

Bragg coherent x-ray diffractive imaging is a powerful technique for investigating dynamic nanoscale processes in nanoparticles immersed in reactive, realistic environments. Its temporal resolution is limited, however, by the oversampling requirements of three-dimensional phase retrieval. Here, we show that incorporating the entire measurement time series, which is typically a continuous physical process, into phase retrieval allows the oversampling requirement at each time step to be reduced, leading to a subsequent improvement in the temporal resolution by a factor of 2-20 times. The increased time resolution will allow imaging of faster dynamics and of radiation-dose-sensitive samples. Furthermore, this approach, which we call "chrono CDI," may find use in improving the time resolution in other imaging techniques.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

SNAP: Simulating New Acquisition Processes

Simulation models of acquisition processes range in scope from isolated applications to the 'Big Picture' captured by SNAP technology. SNAP integrates a family of models to portray the full scope of acquisition planning and management activities, including budgeting, scheduling, testing and risk analysis. SNAP replicates the dynamic management processes that underlie design, production and life-cycle support. SNAP provides the unique 'Big Picture' capability needed to simulate the entire acquisition process and explore the 'what-if' tradeoffs and consequences of alternative policies and decisions. Comparison of cost, schedule and performance tradeoffs help managers choose the lowest-risk, highest payoff at each step in the acquisition process.

Alfeld, Louis E.↗

Integration of Omics into a New Comprehensive Rate Law for Competitive Terminal Electron-Accepting Processes in Reactive Transport Models: Application to N, Fe, S, and Contaminant Transformations in Stream and Wetland Sediments

Surface waters represent important sources of alternate energy and drinking water in the United States, and characterizing the biogeochemical processes that affect surface water quality is relevant to the DOE-BER mission. Sediment biogeochemical processes regulate the release of carbon (C), nutrients, and contaminants to surface waters and thus influence water quality. Sediment biogeochemical processes are dynamic and affected by the deposition and remobilization of solid material and changes in environmental conditions driven by water discharge variations. Wetlands are important natural filters of surface waters which may either trap, metabolize, or mobilize nutrients and contaminants. Despite their importance, biogeochemical processes regulating nutrient and contaminant release and C transformation in stream and wetland sediments cannot be predicted accurately by current mathematical models. These reactive transport models largely rely on detectable changes in geochemical conditions to activate metabolic processes, do not accurately account for the competition between microbial processes, and poorly constrain effects of hydrological perturbations on biogeochemical processes. In this BER-SBR exploratory project, metagenomic and geochemical signatures were combined to identify microbially-mediated redox processes in anaerobic stream and wetland sediments from the Savannah River Site (SRS, ANL SFA) and East Fork Poplar Creek (EFPC, ORNL SFA) that play important roles in C, uranium (U), and mercury (Hg) transformations. In addition, sediment incubations were conducted to examine the competition between anaerobic respiration processes Finally, new rate laws were developed for reactive transport models that rely on complementary metagenomic and geochemical signatures to identify the underlying anaerobic microbial processes in stream and wetland sediments, describe the competition between the dominant metabolic processes involved in nutrient release and U and Hg mobilization, and more accurately quantify carbon transformation and the response of microbial processes to changes in redox conditions associated with hydrological forcing. These rate laws were optimized in batch reactors with SRS wetland sediments, where iron and sulfate reduction dominate. Anaerobic carbon remineralization processes followed the expected thermodynamic sequence of microbial respiration with depth in both sediments, except that geochemical signals indicated that sulfate reduction was inactive in EFPC sediments and moderate in SRS wetland sediments. Estimates indicated that microbial iron reduction contributed to at least half of the production of reduced iron in these sediments. Incubations demonstrated that nitrate reduction, denitrification, and dissimilatory nitrate reduction to ammonium were active in the natural EFPC sediment and activated upon nitrate amendment in these nitrate-rich sediments. In turn, these processes were outcompeted by the addition of either iron oxides or sulfate as alternative terminal electron acceptors. Although geochemical products of sulfate reduction were not detected in the incubations, the abundance of sulfate reduction genes increased with depth in the sediment and was equally more pronounced in treatments amended with either iron oxides or sulfate. Simultaneously, anaerobic sulfide oxidizing bacteria coupling sulfide oxidation to DNRA (and not conventional denitrification) were apparently enriched over time, regardless of the treatments. These findings indicate that sulfate reduction is important in freshwater stream sediments and probably catalyzed by a cryptic sulfur cycle involving nitrogen species, in which the sulfur products from sulfate reduction are immediately removed by side reactions and not detectable by geochemical measurements alone. Similar experiments in SRS sediments, however, demonstrated little interaction between nitrogen and sulfur cycling microorganisms. Sulfate reduction was impacted by the addition of more thermodynamically favorable electron acceptors, suggesting either that iron-reducing microorganisms outcompeted sulfate-reducing microorganisms for organic substrate, depleting the stock of electron donor available for sulfate reduction, or that the cryptic sulfur cycle was shunted by the precipitation of FeS generated as a result of the abiotic reduction of iron oxides by dissolved sulfide. A diagnostic modeling exercise was conducted to further investigate the competition between terminal electron accepting processes. As conventional kinetic models typically do not account for cryptic cycles and used inaccurate formulations to describe competition between microbial communities, new metabolic rate laws were developed that explicitly express the electron acceptor-specific enzyme of each energetically favorable metabolic process based on gene abundance detected in the incubations. The model was tested with the sediment slurry incubation data to determine whether substrate competition could explain the decrease in sulfate reduction observed in the presence of iron oxide competitor. The model was able to reproduce geochemical concentrations really well in each treatment once the model was calibrated with the unamended control, suggesting that microbial competition was indeed driven by thermodynamic considerations. Overall, carbon remineralization processes and rates will be reproduced much more realistically with the new metabolic rate laws.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

High-speed synchrotron X-ray phase-contrast imaging for evaluating microscale damage mechanisms and tracking cracking behaviors inside cross-ply GFRCs

In this study, we integrated the high-speed synchrotron X-ray phase-contrast imaging (PCI) with a modified Kolsky compression bar loading platform to visualize the dynamic failure processes of cross-ply glass fiber reinforced composites (GFRCs). Four S-2 glass/SC-15 composite specimens were prepared, having similar thicknesses but different stacking sequences, namely as [0 12 /90 12 ], [90 12 /0 12 ], [0 8 /90 8 /0 8 ], and [90 8 /0 8 /90 8 ]. Three-dimensional synchrotron X-ray computed tomography and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) were employed to examine the microstructures and quantify the fiber volume fractions. Each specimen was notched and subjected to a dynamic three-point flexural loading. The onset of cracking close to the notch tip, crack propagation in 0° or 90° plies and their interface, crack opening, and ultimately failure of the specimen were captured by high-speed synchrotron X-ray PCI. Additional dynamic experiments were performed to determine the average time when the stress wave propagated through the specimen and correlate the X-ray images with the specimen's force-deflection response. Finally, the surface morphology of each specimen after the dynamic loading was imaged by SEM. Comparison between real-time X-ray images and post-fracture SEM images demonstrated the capability of the X-ray method to record damage evolution inside composites. Furthermore, the high spatial and temporal resolutions of the X-ray setup and edge enhancement by PCI enabled the identification of microscale damage features within 1 μs. Two damaging processes were identified, crack growth was quantified, and fracture toughness of the composites was evaluated. The method is deemed useful to reveal microscale damage mechanisms and track cracking behaviors inside cross-ply GFRCs under dynamic loading in real time.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A New Model for Simulating the Imbibition of a Wetting-Phase Fluid in a Matrix-Fracture Dual Connectivity System

The imbibition experiment is an effective approach for measuring petrophysical properties of porous media, with many such experiments performed over the past decade. Quite some empirical, analytical, and numerical models have been developed to simulate spontaneous imbibition of the wetting phase fluid into porous media, but limitations still exist. In previous studies, the imbibition process has been considered to give a piston-like displacement or the porous medium modeled as multiply-sized pores linked with bonds; both approaches fail to yield comprehensive results due to their neglect of the presence of irregular fractures or nonuniform flow paths through the matrix. By building a numerical model for simulating laboratory-scale experimental data, we performed imbibition tests on several fractured Barnett Shale samples having fractures either parallel ( P ) or transverse ( T ) to the bedding plane and used MATLAB to build a new numerical model by combining the imbibition process in fractures and the matrix using concepts from percolation theory. The experimental data show that the rocks with P -direction fractures have a more steady increase of imbibition rates than the case of T -direction one. As the shale matrix with low pore connectivity hampers the upward water movement, the imbibition rate of shales with T -direction fractures will decrease suddenly after the bottom layer in contact with water is saturated during the initial period. This wetting phase movement (WPM) model can simulate 3D porous media with 2D fractures. The rate of imbibition by fractured porous media is associated with physical parameters such as porosity and fracture distribution (e.g., the number and angle of fractures). Using Monte Carlo methods, we examined fracture parameters and predicted elapsed time and cumulative water imbibition, for the Barnett Shale samples. The results show that the rate of imbibed water mass is sensitive to the number of fractures directly connected to water source, and the connectivity between two neighboring grid cells is a key parameter for the wetting-front progression. The findings of this study can help to better understand the imbibition process with multiple influencing processes and factors in fractured-matrix rocks. Although the experiments, data simulation, and prediction results are based only on Barnett Shale samples, the model is readily applicable to imbibition tests of other fractured rocks to show the spatial and temporal behavior during a dynamic imbibition process that are not easily captured experimentally.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

An observational study of the ozone dilution effect: Ozone transport in the austral spring stratosphere

In a previous observational analysis, Atkinson et al (1989) ascribed a sudden decrease in Southern Hemisphere midlatitude total ozone during December 1987 to an 'ozone dilution effect' brought about by the breakup of the polar stratospheric vortex at that time. A question alluded to but unanswered by that study was the degree to which the observed total ozone decrease might have been caused by the quasi-horizontal equatorward transport of 'ozone hold' air from within the vortex, and to what degree by the vertical advection from lower levels of air naturally low in ozone, a dynamical adjustment process which must accompany the equatorward outbreak of a discrete high-latitude airmass. In the present study, analyses of Ertel potential vorticity, TOMS total ozone, and SAGE and ozone sonde vertical profile data are employed using a novel technique to examine the 1987 event in greater detail, to answer this question. Recent progress is then reported in refining the technique and extending the investigation to examine the dynamical evolution of the austral spring stratosphere during other recent years, to shed more light on the precise nature, frequency, and severity of such 'ozone dilution' events, and the effect that this process may have on long term ozone behavior in the Southern Hemisphere.

Atkinson, Roger J.↗

Computational time-resolved and resonant x-ray scattering of strongly correlated materials

Basic-Energy Sciences of the Department of Energy (BES/DOE) has made large investments in x-ray sources in the U.S. (NSLS-II, LCLS, NGLS, ALS, APS) as powerful enabling tools for opening up unprecedented new opportunities for exploring properties of matter at various length and time scales. The coming online of the pulsed photon source, literally allows us to see and follow the dynamics of processes in materials at their natural timescales. There is an urgent need therefore to develop theoretical methodologies and computational models for understanding how x-rays interact with matter and the related spectroscopies of materials. The present project addressed aspects of this grand challenge of x-ray science. In particular, our Collaborative Research Team (CRT) focused on developing viable computational schemes for modeling x-ray scattering and photoemission spectra of strongly correlated materials in the time-domain. The vast arsenal of formal/numerical techniques and approaches encompassed by the members of our CRT were brought to bear through appropriate generalizations and extensions to model the pumped state and the dynamics of this non-equilibrium state, and how it can be probed via x-ray absorption (XAS), emission (XES), resonant and non-resonant x-ray scattering, and photoemission processes. We explored the conceptual connections between the time-domain problems and other second-order spectroscopies, such as resonant inelastic x-ray scattering (RIXS) because RIXS may be effectively thought of as a pump-probe experiment in which the incoming photon acts as the pump, and the fluorescent decay is the probe. Alternatively, when the core-valence interactions are strong, one can view K-edge RIXS for example, as the dynamic response of the material to the transient presence of a strong core-hole potential. Unlike an actual pump-probe experiment, here there is no mechanism for adjusting the time-delay between the pump and the probe. However, the core hole predominantly decays via Auger processes, thereby providing an internal time-scale, which limits intermediate-state processes to timescales of a few femtoseconds. Accordingly, a number of activities directed at modeling K-, L- and M-edge RIXS in correlated materials were also pursused by our CRT. Our research effort supported by this CMCSN grant substantially advanced the understanding of x-ray scattering processes in the time-domain as well as in the more conventional scattering channels, including time-resolved photoemission, and how such processes can be modeled realistically in complex correlated materials more generally. The modeling of relaxation processes involved in time-domain spectroscopies is important also for understanding photoinduced effects such as energy conversion in photosynthesis and solar cell applications, and thus impacts the basic science for energy needs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The effect of loading direction on the fracture behaviors of cortical bone at a dynamic loading rate

Here, the dynamic cracking processes in porcine cortical bone were visualized in real-time using the high-speed synchrotron X-ray phase-contrast imaging (PCI) technique in three osteon orientations: in-plane transverse, out-of-plane transverse and in-plane longitudinal. The dynamic flexural loading applied on the pre-notched bone specimens was introduced by a modified Kolsky compression bar. High-speed X-ray images of the entire loading events were documented with a high-speed camera. Three-dimensional X-ray micro-computed tomography was conducted to examine the intact microstructures and obtain the basic material properties of the bone material used for mechanical characterizations. The onset location, where crack initiated, and the subsequent direction, along which the incipient crack propagated, were measured quantitatively using the high-speed X-ray images and the latter was found dependent on the osteon direction significantly. The crack propagation velocities were dependent on crack extension over the entire crack path significantly for all the three directions while the initial velocity for in-plane longitudinal direction was lower than the other two directions. Straight-through crack paths were observed for in-plane longitudinal specimens while the cracks were deflected and twisted in the in-plane transverse direction. For out-of-plane transverse direction, the cracks follow paths with tortuosity fall in between the other two directions, showing a mixed mode of fractures of the former two extreme cases. The toughening mechanisms, visualized by the high-speed X-ray images, and the corresponding fracture toughness, evaluated in terms of fracture initiation toughness and crack growth resistance curve (R-curve), were also found significantly different among the three osteon directions, suggesting an overall transition from brittle to ductile-like fracture behaviors at the dynamic displacement rate (5.4 m/s) as the osteon orientation varies from in-plane longitudinal to out-of-plane transverse, and to in-plane transverse eventually.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Probing the electrolyte/electrode interface with vibrational sum frequency generation spectroscopy: A review

Over the past decades, Lithium-ion batteries have seen extensive improvements, and as a result are now the primary choice in many applications for their power, energy, and durability. In recent years, battery cost has reduced by orders of magnitude through adoption of new materials and processes. Despite these advances, interfaces in these battery systems are yet to be fully understood. This is seen as a major limitation to further increase cycle life, calendar life, abuse tolerance, and performances. A major obstacle is a lack of comprehensive understanding of the complex dynamic chemical processes occurring at the electrolyte/electrode interface. In this context, vibrational sum frequency generation (vSFG) spectroscopy possesses the unique capability of probing a molecularly thin interfacial layer to obtain molecular-level information through nonlinear optical interaction. Probing the molecular level processes at the interfaces using such a versatile technique would be a game changer in the advancement of current battery research knowledge. This review article summarizes recent vSFG studies on the electrolyte/electrode interface of various electrode materials and nonaqueous electrolytes for LIBs and discusses future research perspectives. Finally, overall, this focused review highlights the advantages and versatility of vSFG that can be used to further advance present-day battery research.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Stream water sourcing from high-elevation snowpack inferred from stable isotopes of water: a novel application of d-excess values

About 80 % of the precipitation at the Colorado River's headwaters is snow, and the resulting snowmelt-driven hydrograph is a crucial water source for about 40 million people. Snowmelt from alpine and subalpine snowpack contributes substantially to groundwater recharge and river flow. However, the dynamics of snowmelt progression are not well understood because observations of the high-elevation snowpack are difficult due to challenging access in complex mountainous terrain as well as the cost and labor intensity of currently available methods. We present a novel approach to infer the processes and dynamics of high-elevation snowmelt contributions predicated upon stable hydrogen and oxygen isotope ratios observed in streamflow. We show that deuterium-excess (d-excess) values of stream water could serve as a comparatively cost-effective proxy for a catchment-integrated signal of high-elevation snowmelt contributions to catchment runoff. We sampled stable hydrogen and oxygen isotope ratios of the precipitation, snowpack, and stream water in the East River, a headwater catchment of the Colorado River, and the stream water of larger catchments at sites on the Gunnison River and Colorado River. The d-excess of snowpack increased with elevation; the upper subalpine and alpine snowpack (> 3200 m) had substantially higher d-excess compared to lower elevations (< 3200 m) in the study area. The d-excess values of stream water reflected this because d-excess values increased as the higher-elevation snowpack contributed more to stream water generation later in the snowmelt/runoff season. End-member mixing analyses based on the d-excess data showed that the share of high-elevation snowmelt contributions within the snowmelt hydrograph was on average 44 % and generally increased during melt period progression, up to 70 %. The observed pattern was consistent during 6 years for the East River, and a similar relation was found for the larger catchments on the Gunnison and Colorado rivers. High-elevation snowpack contributions were found to be higher for years with lower snowpack and warmer spring temperatures. Thus, we conclude that the d-excess of stream water is a viable proxy to observe changes in high-elevation snowmelt contributions in catchments at various scales. Inter-catchment comparisons and temporal trends of the d-excess of stream water could therefore serve as a catchment-integrated measure to monitor if mountain systems rely on high-elevation water inputs more during snow drought compared to years of average snowpack depths.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantitative-qualitative assessments of environmental causal networks to support the DPSIR framework in the decision-making process

Highlights: • DSPIR framework is extended for supporting the decision-making process. • Environmental causal networks are used instead of unidirectional causalities. • Quantitative and qualitative data are combined to improve environmental assessments. • Decision-makers can choose management actions to reach favorable future scenarios. - Abstract: The DPSIR framework helps to identify and situate stressors, drivers and pressure variables within a dynamic environmental process composed of cause-effect relations. However, an important aspect related to its structural deficiency implies the use of unidirectional causalities between variables. In this work, we extend the capacities of the DPSIR framework by addressing three important points. Firstly, causal networks are built instead of unidirectional causalities, the former based on paths represented by sequences of cause-effect relations between involved variables. These paths are derived from the population growth as a driving force variable, along with CO{sub 2} emissions, waste, water and loss of vegetation cover as pressure variables. Trends of these paths are combined to determine and quantitatively assess a global environmental state trend whose impacts on the environment require corrective management actions as a response. Secondly, quantitative assessments of environmental trends are transformed into fuzzy-qualitative data to facilitate their interpretation. Thirdly, a method based on weighted environmental management actions is presented to decision-makers who aspire to change current path trends in order to approach desirable scenarios similar to those put forth by the OECD outlook towards 2030. The results obtained applying this framework to the State of Morelos, México, show that it can be a useful support tool in the selection and monitoring of management actions capable of reaching favorable environmental trends.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

How AI Predicts the Untrained and Unseen

Focus Area: Model predictability improvements (Primary); Data optimization (secondary); Data complexity insights (secondary). The Scientific Challenge: If we believe that a future under extreme conditions will look very differently from today, we can likely agree that ML/AI models trained on past and present datasets will not be adequate to make reliable predictions into the future. This is true for water cycling, as well as biogeochemistry and other Earth system components and behaviors. Additionally, ML/AI models are inherently non-physical. Despite the flourishing success of ML/AI in many applications, such as computer vision, natural language process, and gaming, even the most sophisticated AI models don’t understand the very basic physical laws. Therefore, a natural question is: Can we trust ML/AI based predictions of Earth system behaviors that are fundamentally driven by physical laws? So, are physics models with meticulous process representation a better choice? Not exactly. Physical models, when firmly rooted in first principles, work great at predicting behaviors of systems with a well-defined set of boundary conditions and variables. However, as a complex system, the number of parameters and the degree of complexity and dynamics in processes, coupling, and scale dependent emergent behaviors make the Earth system behaviors very challenging to predict with physical models composed of deterministic laws. In addition, due to the lack of fundamental understandings, physical models often implement empirical correlations derived from observations with biases from locality of data generation. Because correlation is not necessarily causation or comply with first principles, scaling of model predictions beyond locality is often invalid. Beyond the limitation of models, physics or AI, our knowledge of the Earth system is limited by the lack of observational technologies and resources. Insufficient data density, dimensionality and diversity only offer a sliced (or projected) view of the Earth system, e.g. Plato’s Cave analogy, limiting our capability to better understand and represent fundamental processes in models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗