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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2022

Quantitative texture analysis at the WAND 2 and HIDRA diffractometers

Data collection and analysis strategies have been developed for efficient and reliable crystallographic texture measurements at two recently upgraded neutron diffractometers: the Wide Angle Neutron Diffractometer Squared (WAND 2 ) and the High Intensity Diffractometer for Residual Stress Analysis (HIDRA) at the High Flux Isotope Reactor located at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. These methods are demonstrated using measurements on a variety of textured samples, including multi-phase steel composites and polycrystalline calcite (CaCO 3 ). Reference measurements were also made at VULCAN, the engineering diffractometer located at the Spallation Neutron Source. The texture data obtained on the different instruments are in agreement, and WAND 2 is more time efficient than HIDRA. Two analysis methods were investigated, single-peak fitting to obtain individual pole figures for inversion and Rietveld texture analysis using MAUD. Here, the impact of the differences between the various textures obtained was evaluated through the calculation of diffraction elastic constants, which is one application of the texture data collected. Both instruments were found to provide texture data that are suitable for complementing other analyses, such as residual stress mapping.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Impact of Behind-the-Meter Heterogeneous Distributed Energy Resources on Distribution Grids: Preprint

The increasing integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) on the electric grid brings new challenges and opportunities for utility grid operations. With the rapid deployment of DERs, there is emerging interest in integrating these controllable devices with utility operations at all levels for monitoring and management. Different types of DERs such as Photovoltaics (PV), energy storage, electric vehicles (EVs), etc. have varying effects on the grid based on how and where they are deployed. Again, the DER deployment and its impact are network-dependent, while the traditional electric grids were not designed to host DERs. To understand the challenges with increasing behind-the-meter (BTM) DERs and to identify the needs in deploying advanced controls, a comprehensive grid impact study is indispensable. This paper investigates the impacts of integrating a mix of DERs in the utility distribution network in Colorado, U.S. Firstly, BTM DERs at the residential scale including distributed PV; battery energy storage systems (BESS); heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) load; electric water heater (EWH) load; and EVs are modeled. The impacts of integrating these resources on the distribution network are evaluated by conducting time-series simulations for different scenarios considering different days to capture the worst-case conditions. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to generate the realistic EV charging profile. The voltage issues, substation transformer loadings, and critical nodes in the network are identified with the incorporation of uncoordinated EV charging loads and other DER in the network. This analysis helps visualize the DER impact on the grid, identify the challenges, and provides an insight into the new distribution management and control needs to enable reliable and resilient distribution grid operations. Additionally, further analysis is performed to estimate the daily residential electricity cost with the inclusion of DERs under time-of-use tariffs. The result shows the daily residential electricity cost reduced by 20:7% on average with DERs compared to the case without DERs.

27 ARPA - Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy↗

DOE OSTI2024

Achieving an 80% Renewable Portfolio in Alaska's Railbelt: Cost Analysis

This study examines the system-level costs and benefits of increased renewable energy deployment in the Railbelt grid, in the context of a proposed 80% renewable portfolio standard (RPS). This work studies the period from 2024 to 2040 and uses a model that simulates the planning, evolution, and operation of the power system to identify the mix of resources that maintains system reliability at the lowest electricity system cost over the period of analysis. The model tracks several reliability metrics, including the ability to serve demand during all hours of the year, even when normal power system failures occur. The model includes several measures (and associated costs) to address the variable output of renewable resources, including additional operating reserves, fuel storage, cycling of fossil plants, and additional equipment needed to maintain system stability. The Reference (least-cost) scenario results in substantial deployment of renewable energy and cost savings, reaching about 76% of Railbelt generation derived from renewables in 2040. Annual savings average about $105 M/year from 2030 to 2040. About 50% of this generation is from wind by 2040. Enforcing an 80% RPS results in about a 2% cumulative reduction in net savings. Demand is met in all scenarios, relying heavily on use of existing hydropower and fossil-fueled generators during periods of low renewable output. Meeting the increase in variability will require substantial changes in how the system is operated, with inverter-based resources providing nearly 100% of electricity during some periods.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS1985

Effect of system workload on operating system reliability - A study on IBM 3081

This paper presents an analysis of operating system failures on an IBM 3081 running VM/SP. Three broad categories of software failures are found: error handling, program control or logic, and hardware related; it is found that more than 25 percent of software failures occur in the hardware/software interface. Measurements show that results on software reliability cannot be considered representative unless the system workload is taken into account. The overall CPU execution rate, although measured to be close to 100 percent most of the time, is not found to correlate strongly with the occurrence of failures. Possible reasons for the observed workload failure dependency, based on detailed investigations of the failure data, are discussed.

Iyer, R. K.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Probabilistic structural analysis for nuclear thermal propulsion

Viewgraphs of probabilistic structural analysis for nuclear thermal propulsion are presented. The objective of the study was to develop a methodology to certify Space Nuclear Propulsion System (SNPS) Nozzle with assured reliability. Topics covered include: advantage of probabilistic structural analysis; space nuclear propulsion system nozzle uncertainties in the random variables; SNPS nozzle natural frequency; and sensitivity of primitive variable uncertainties SNPS nozzle natural frequency and shell stress.

Shah, Ashwin↗

NASA NTRS1993

Probabilistic sizing of laminates with uncertainties

A reliability based design methodology for laminate sizing and configuration for a special case of composite structures is described. The methodology combines probabilistic composite mechanics with probabilistic structural analysis. The uncertainties of constituent materials (fiber and matrix) to predict macroscopic behavior are simulated using probabilistic theory. Uncertainties in the degradation of composite material properties are included in this design methodology. A multi-factor interaction equation is used to evaluate load and environment dependent degradation of the composite material properties at the micromechanics level. The methodology is integrated into a computer code IPACS (Integrated Probabilistic Assessment of Composite Structures). Versatility of this design approach is demonstrated by performing a multi-level probabilistic analysis to size the laminates for design structural reliability of random type structures. The results show that laminate configurations can be selected to improve the structural reliability from three failures in 1000, to no failures in one million. Results also show that the laminates with the highest reliability are the least sensitive to the loading conditions.

Shah, A. R.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Spaceflight Over the Last Ten Years: Failures and Fix-ups 2013 - 2022 RAMS XV Conference

This project is an overview and analysis of the past ten years (2013 – present) in global spaceflight, highlighting the orbital launches of countries, particularly the failures that occurred, the reasons they occurred, and a breakdown of the related statistics and background information. The analysis is conducted from a perspective of reliability and maintainability engineering and Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to formulate a quantifiable understanding of the data and how it is pertinent to Safety and Mission Assurance (SMA) in spaceflight. There is a breakdown by country or group, timelines, and number of launches. The failures over the years are categorized, all given a broad analysis of subsystem failures and details of events. A few failures are given a more in-depth analysis of root causes and failure modes determined by their unique or common nature. The data is retrieved from online, publicly available sources.

Quinn Slaugenhoupt↗

NASA NTRS1972

A Bayesian approach to parameter and reliability estimation in the Poisson distribution.

For life testing procedures, a Bayesian analysis is developed with respect to a random intensity parameter in the Poisson distribution. Bayes estimators are derived for the Poisson parameter and the reliability function based on uniform and gamma prior distributions of that parameter. A Monte Carlo procedure is implemented to make possible an empirical mean-squared error comparison between Bayes and existing minimum variance unbiased, as well as maximum likelihood, estimators. As expected, the Bayes estimators have mean-squared errors that are appreciably smaller than those of the other two.

Canavos, G. C.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Eucalyptus – An Analysis Suite for Fault Trees with Uncertainty Quantification

Eucalyptus is a novel code developed at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory to incorporate uncertainty quantification into Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). This tool addresses the challenge of imperfect knowledge in “grey-box” systems by allowing analysts to incorporate and propagate uncertainty from component-level assessments to system-level effects. Eucalyptus facilitates a consistent evaluation of the impact of subject matter expert judgment and knowledge gaps on overall system response by Monte Carlo generation of possible system fault trees, sampling probabilities of the existence of subsystems and components. Here, the code supports the specification of fault trees through text and allows export to various formats, including auto-generated images, easing analysis and reducing errors. It has undergone extensive verification testing, demonstrating its reliability and readiness for deployment, and leverages on-node parallelism for rapid analysis. Example analyses are shown that include the identification of system failure paths and quantification of the value of further information about system components.

Fault Tree Analysis↗

NASA NTRS1988

An expert system for satellite and instrument data anomaly and fault isolation

A prototype Generic Payload Operations Control System (GPOCC) is being developed at the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory to provide a low-cost command and control processing center for science instruments and small payloads. The GPOCC supports the difficult transition from integration and test to flight operations. The prototype will incorporate four expert systems to perform telemetry, command, and mission planning functions as well as telecommunications scheduling. The first of these expert systems to be developed will perform telemetry data analysis and fault isolation, as well as propose corrective action. This Data Analysis Module (DAM) will monitor telemetry data and perform continual data monitoring and trend analysis based on a knowledge base and historic data archived on an optical disk storage device. The system maintains a continuous knowledge database of past system performance characteristics. The goal of the Data Analysis Module is to achieve consistent, dependable and validatable performance, to demonstrate thorough, reliable and fast reasoning, and to reduce the concentration demanded of flight analysis personnel.

Busse, Carl↗

NASA NTRS1973

Proposed reliability cost model

The research investigations which were involved in the study include: cost analysis/allocation, reliability and product assurance, forecasting methodology, systems analysis, and model-building. This is a classic example of an interdisciplinary problem, since the model-building requirements include the need for understanding and communication between technical disciplines on one hand, and the financial/accounting skill categories on the other. The systems approach is utilized within this context to establish a clearer and more objective relationship between reliability assurance and the subcategories (or subelements) that provide, or reenforce, the reliability assurance for a system. Subcategories are further subdivided as illustrated by a tree diagram. The reliability assurance elements can be seen to be potential alternative strategies, or approaches, depending on the specific goals/objectives of the trade studies. The scope was limited to the establishment of a proposed reliability cost-model format. The model format/approach is dependent upon the use of a series of subsystem-oriented CER's and sometimes possible CTR's, in devising a suitable cost-effective policy.

Delionback, L. M.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Time Synchronization Techniques in the Modern Smart Grid: A Comprehensive Survey

In modern smart grids, accurate and synchronized time signals are essential for effective monitoring, protection, and control. Various time synchronization methods exist, each tailored to specific application needs. Widely adopted solutions, such as GPS, however, are vulnerable to challenges such as signal loss and cyber-attacks, underscoring the need for reliable backup or supplementary solutions. This paper examines the timing requirements across different power grid applications and provides a comprehensive review of available time synchronization mechanisms. Through a comparative analysis of timing methods based on accuracy, flexibility, reliability, and security, this study offers insights to guide the selection of optimal solutions for seamless grid integration.

comparison↗

NASA NTRS1990

Reliable algorithm for modal decomposition

This paper describes a reliable, general algorithm for modal decomposition in real arithmetic and its use in analyzing and synthesizing control logic for linear dynamic systems. The numerical difficulties are described associated with computing the Jordan canonical form when the system has repeated, or nearly repeated, eigenvalues. A new algorithm is described that satisfactorily solves these numerical difficulties. The relation and extension to related numerical analysis research are discussed to clarify the reliability of the techniques. Finally, its implementation as a practical modal decomposition method for efficiently computing the matrix exponential, transfer functions, and frequency response is also described.

Walker, Robert A.↗

DOE OSTI2019

Anomaly detection in scientific data using joint statistical moments

We propose an anomaly detection method for multi-variate scientific data based on analysis of high-order joint moments. Using kurtosis as a reliable measure of outliers, we suggest that principal kurtosis vectors, by analogy to principal component analysis (PCA) vectors, signify the principal directions along which outliers appear. The inception of an anomaly, then, manifests as a change in the principal values and vectors of kurtosis. Obtaining the principal kurtosis vectors requires decomposing a fourth order joint cumulant tensor for which we use a simple, computationally less expensive approach that involves performing a singular value decomposition (SVD) over the matricized tensor. We demonstrate the efficacy of this approach on synthetic data, and develop an algorithm to identify the occurrence of a spatial and/or temporal anomalous event in scientific phenomena. The algorithm decomposes the data into several spatial sub-domains and time steps to identify regions with such events. Feature moment metrics, based on the alignments of the principal kurtosis vectors, are computed at each sub-domain and time step for all features to quantify their relative importance towards the overall kurtosis in the data. Accordingly, spatial and temporal anomaly metrics for each sub-domain are proposed using the Hellinger distance of the feature moment metric distribution from a suitable nominal distribution. Finally, we apply the algorithm to two turbulent auto-ignition combustion cases and demonstrate that the anomaly metrics reliably capture the occurrence of auto-ignition in relevant spatial sub-domains at the right time steps.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2012

Analytical Round Robin for Elastic-Plastic Analysis of Surface Cracked Plates: Phase I Results

An analytical round robin for the elastic-plastic analysis of surface cracks in flat plates was conducted with 15 participants. Experimental results from a surface crack tension test in 2219-T8 aluminum plate provided the basis for the inter-laboratory study (ILS). The study proceeded in a blind fashion given that the analysis methodology was not specified to the participants, and key experimental results were withheld. This approach allowed the ILS to serve as a current measure of the state of the art for elastic-plastic fracture mechanics analysis. The analytical results and the associated methodologies were collected for comparison, and sources of variability were studied and isolated. The results of the study revealed that the J-integral analysis methodology using the domain integral method is robust, providing reliable J-integral values without being overly sensitive to modeling details. General modeling choices such as analysis code, model size (mesh density), crack tip meshing, or boundary conditions, were not found to be sources of significant variability. For analyses controlled only by far-field boundary conditions, the greatest source of variability in the J-integral assessment is introduced through the constitutive model. This variability can be substantially reduced by using crack mouth opening displacements to anchor the assessment. Conclusions provide recommendations for analysis standardization.

Wells, D. N.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Absolute intensity calibration for carbon-edge soft X-ray scattering

Resonant soft X-ray scattering (RSOXS) has become a premier probe to study complex three-dimensional nanostructures in soft matter through combining the robust structural characterization of small-angle scattering with the chemical sensitivity of spectroscopy. This technique borrows many of its analysis methods from alternative small-angle scattering measurements that utilize contrast variation, but thus far RSOXS has been unable to reliably achieve an absolute scattering intensity required for quantitative analysis of domain compositions, volume fraction, or interfacial structure. Here, a novel technique to calibrate RSOXS to an absolute intensity at the carbon absorption edge is introduced. It is shown that the X-ray fluorescence from a thin polymer film can be utilized as an angle-independent scattering standard. Verification of absolute intensity is then accomplished through measuring the Flory–Huggins interaction parameter in a phase-mixed polymer melt. As a result, the necessary steps for users to reproduce this intensity calibration in their own experiments to improve the scientific output from RSOXS measurements are discussed.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2025

DistOPF: Advanced Solutions for Distribution Optimal Power Flow Analysis - DistOPF v0.2 Documentation

To achieve an affordable and reliable energy system, research on power distribution system is often focused on integration of distributed generators, energy storage solution, EV charging, smart meters, and other advanced assets that may benefit from or require more advanced control and optimization techniques. Despite this focus on advanced distribution system topics, early researchers and grid scientists often start from scratch when developing optimization programs for power distribution systems. This report introduces DistOPF, a Python package that consolidates years of research into a versatile and modular tool. DistOPF provides researchers with essential capabilities to solve distribution system Optimal Power Flow (OPF) problems using standard network models. Additionally, it offers a platform to benchmark both new and existing algorithms against established test systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Modeling Tool Development and Validation for Solar Industry Process Heat Using Particle Thermal Energy Storage

U.S. industry sectors used 26.2 quadrillion Btu and accounted for 33% of total energy consumption in 2021 according to the Energy Information Agency. Industrial process heat accounts for 70% of industrial energy use with application temperatures ranging from 60 degrees -1100 degrees C. Industry processes, heavily relying on fossil fuels of cheap coal or natural gas, differ widely in operating conditions and load requirements which makes them difficult to standardize and imposes great challenges in decarbonization. Industry processes require reliable energy supply and vary widely in temperature ranges. Storing energy from renewable sources is necessary to improve reliability and to mitigate renewable intermittency when replacing carbon fuel-based heat supplies to achieve energy savings and reduce emissions. To this end, we have developed a particle-based thermal energy storage (TES) technology using low-cost and highly stable silica sand as a storage medium. The economic and performance-based analysis is key for renewable energy sources to reliably supply industry process heat and ultimately displace fossil fuels for decarbonization. The diversified industrial processes need case-by-case analysis and design. Therefore, an adaptive modeling tool is key for renewable power with energy storage to meet industry demands. Thus, a modeling tool to simulate a solar industry process heat system using the particle TES has been developed using the object-oriented equation-based language Modelica and the commercial platform of Modelon Impact. The Modelica-based software tool provides a general simulation environment for the design of reliable solar energy sources integrated with TES for various industrial process applications at different temperatures for economic competence with fossil fuels such as coal and natural gases. It uses both customized and standard component modeling modules in Modelon libraries for the flexibility to be adapted to a specific energy demand application. The particle TES system establishes a uniform energy supply platform with an efficient heat exchanger and particle thermal energy reservoir integrated with renewable powers. The particle TES system can provide a wide temperature range and can have a large storage temperature difference that increases storage energy density; therefore, it can be an adaptable energy storage system integrated with renewable power to supply 24/7 heat for industry decarbonization.

concentrated solar thermal↗