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DOE OSTI2024

Transmission Interface Limits for High-Spatial Resolution Capacity Expansion Modeling

Large-scale capacity expansion models typically rely on estimates of the power transfer limits between modeled zones. Accurate estimation of these interface transfer limits (ITLs) requires modeling the underlying transmission network. Here we expand on a maximum flow optimization method that uses linearized power flow to estimate transfer limits. We apply this method to a data set of the U.S. transmission network to estimate ITLs between U.S. counties. By calculating ITLs using different subsets of the network, we evaluate how the size of the network used in the estimation affects the results. The results show diminishing returns to ITL accuracy after six hops, suggesting that a network subset can reasonably be used to approximate ITLs. The county-level estimates produced in this study will support more spatially resolved capacity expansion modeling and will help inform policy making at local and national levels.

capacity planning↗

DOE OSTI2024

Transmission Interface Limits for High-Spatial Resolution Capacity Expansion Modeling

capacity planning↗

DOE OSTI2025

DESIGN ISSUES AND QUALIFICATION OF HYDROFORMED DOUBLE WALLED EXPANSION JOINTS IN VACUUM SERVICE

The Vacuum Auxiliary System for ITER is devoted to pumping out, venting, and purging the vacuum volumes of the tokamak. Over 5000 clients including the cryostat and vacuum vessel, at 8500 m3 and 1400 m3 respectively, are serviced by approximately 150 pumping stations through 6 km of pipework. The piping and functions provided to the clients include component operation, routing of potentially tritiated gases, and timely leak localization. Expansion joints are used to reduce loadings on pumps and piping stresses but also to qualify in-line components having low allowable design loads. The ITER project utilizes vacuum valves that are not designed to withstand typical piping system loadings and require detailed design and evaluation. Loading scenarios prescribed by governing system specifications must be considered. To maintain allowable design loads for components and to keep piping stresses below code requirements, double walled hydroformed expansion joints have been employed in the design. These are not standard items and require custom fabrication. Installation space constraints and adjacent pipe support attachment location availability at ITER limit standard expansion joint installation guidelines provided by the Expasion Joint Manufacturers Association (EJMA). Careful consideration must be given to the analysis model to ensure proper function and life expectancy of the component. These considerations include accurate accounting of thrust forces, thermal movements, seismic accelerations, equipment and building differential displacements. In addition to displacements, the process internal, external, and interspace pressures affect the qualification and selection of the double walled expansion joints. The calculation results shall confirm that deflections, forces, and moments are reasonable for the size and type required for the system’s demands as evaluated against the manufacturer’s design.

Clark, Forrest [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000678106843)↗

DOE OSTI2020

Drag force to all orders in gradients

We study the energy loss of a heavy quark slowly moving through an evolving strongly coupled plasma. We use the linearized fluid/gravity correspondence to describe small perturbations of the medium flow with general spacetime dependence. This all order linearized hydrodynamics results in a drag force exerted on a heavy quark even when it is at rest with the fluid element. We show how the general contribution to the drag force can be derived order by order in the medium velocity gradients and provide explicit results valid up to the third order. We then obtain an approximate semi-analytic result for the drag force to all orders in the gradient expansion but linearized in the medium velocity. Thus, the effects of a class of hydrodynamic gradients on the drag force are re-summed, giving further insight into the dissipative properties of strongly coupled plasmas. The all order result allows us to study the drag force in the non-hydrodynamic regime of linear medium perturbations that vary rapidly in space and time.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

On the connection between perturbation theory and new semiclassical expansion in quantum mechanics

Here, it is shown that for the one-dimensional anharmonic oscillator with potential V(x) = ax 2 + bgx 3 + ... = $\frac{1}{g^2}$ $\hat{V}$ (gx), as well as for the radial oscillator V(r) = $\frac{1}{g^2}$ $\hat{V}$ (gr) and for the perturbed Coulomb problem V(r) = $\frac{a}{r}$ + βgr + ... = g $\tilde{V}$ (gr), the Perturbation Theory in powers of the coupling constant g (weak coupling regime) and the semiclassical expansion in powers of $\hbar$ 1/2 for the energies coincide. This is related to the fact that the dynamics developed in two spaces: x (r)-space and gx (gr)-space, lead to the same energy spectra. The equations which govern dynamics in these two spaces, the Riccati-Bloch equation and the Generalized Bloch equation, respectively, are presented. It is shown that the perturbation theory for the logarithmic derivative of the wavefunction in - space leads to (true) semiclassical expansion in powers of $\hbar$ 1/2 ; for the one-dimensional case this corresponds to the flucton calculus for the density matrix in the path integral formalism in Euclidean (imaginary) time proposed by one of the authors. Matching the perturbation theory in powers of g and the semiclassical expansion in powers of $\hbar$ 1/2 for the wavefunction leads to a highly accurate local approximation in the entire coordinate space, its expectation value for the Hamiltonian provides a prescription for the summation of the perturbative (trans)-series.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Marginal unbiased score expansion and application to CMB lensing

Here, we present the marginal unbiased score expansion (MUSE) method, an algorithm for generic high-dimensional hierarchical Bayesian inference. MUSE performs approximate marginalization over arbitrary non-Gaussian latent parameter spaces, yielding Gaussianized asymptotically unbiased and near-optimal constraints on global parameters of interest. It is computationally much cheaper than exact alternatives like Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC), excelling on funnel problems which challenge HMC, and does not require any problem-specific user supervision like other approximate methods such as variational inference or many simulation-based inference methods. MUSE makes possible the first joint Bayesian estimation of the delensed Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) power spectrum and gravitational lensing potential power spectrum, demonstrated here on a simulated data set as large as the upcoming South Pole Telescope 3G 1500 deg 2 survey, corresponding to a latent dimensionality of ~6 million and of order 100 global bandpower parameters. On a subset of the problem where an exact but more expensive HMC solution is feasible, we verify that MUSE yields nearly optimal results. We also demonstrate that existing spectrum-based forecasting tools which ignore pixel-masking underestimate predicted error bars by only ~10%. This method is a promising path forward for fast lensing and delensing analyses which will be necessary for future CMB experiments such as SPT-3G, Simons Observatory, or CMB-S4, and can complement or supersede existing HMC approaches. The success of MUSE on this challenging problem strengthens its case as a generic procedure for a broad class of high-dimensional inference problems.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2021

tesuract v.1.0

SAND2021-14370 O Tesuract (tensor surrogate approximation and computation) provides Python tools to build machine learning regressors that include polynomial chaos expansions. The software also offers methods for creation regressors for tensor outputs such as spatially varying fields and using a reduced order modeling methodology. The library is built on and compatible with the scikit-learn API, which allows integration with one of the most ubiquitous machine learning Python libraries out there. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Chowdhary, Kamaljit↗

DOE OSTI2020

Experimental Investigation of Low Cost, Low Thermal Conductivity Thermal Barrier Coating on HCCI Combustion, Efficiency, and Emissions

In-cylinder surface temperature is of heightened importance for Homogeneous Charge Compression Ignition (HCCI) combustion since the combustion mechanism is thermo-kinetically driven. Thermal Barrier Coatings (TBCs) selectively manipulate the in-cylinder surface temperature, providing an avenue for improving thermal and combustion efficiency. A surface temperature swing during combustion/expansion reduces heat transfer losses, leading to more complete combustion and reduced emissions. At the same time, achieving a highly dynamic response sidesteps preheating of charge during intake and eliminates the volumetric efficiency penalty. The magnitude and temporal profile of the dynamic surface temperature swing is affected by the TBC material properties, thickness, morphology, engine speed, and heat flux from the combustion process. This study follows prior work of authors with Yttria Stabilized Zirconia, which systematically engineered coatings for HCCI combustion. Herein, a modeling study was used to assess the impacts of various TBC material properties, e.g. density, thickness, and thermal conductivity on the temperature swing effect. Reducing conductivity emerged as a most promising avenue, rather than reducing both the density and effective conductivity by increasing porosity, the current work emphasizes a material with natively low conductivity. A novel TBC formulation was developed, leverages a class of materials that, to the author’s best knowledge, have not been used as a thermal barrier coating previously. Here, a systematic experimental investigation was carried out using single-cylinder research engine. Experimental engine studies utilizing the novel ‘glassy’ low-K coating exhibit advanced ignition phasing and reduced combustion duration relative to the baseline engine. Heat transfer measurements indicate a net reduction in heat flux over the entire cycle, although main effect is felt during expansion, and the reduced heat transfer losses manifest in higher gross indicated thermal efficiency by approximately 5-6% on a relative basis.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Multi-seasonal measurements of the ground-level atmospheric ice-nucleating particle abundance on the North Slope of Alaska

Atmospheric ice-nucleating particles (INPs) are an important subset of aerosol particles that are responsible for the heterogeneous formation of ice crystals. INPs modulate the arctic cloud phase (liquid vs. ice), resulting in implications for radiative feedbacks. The number of arctic INP studies investigating specific INP episodes or sources increased recently. However, existing studies are based on short-duration field data, and long-term datasets are lacking. Continuous, long-term measurements are key to determining the abundance and variability of ambient arctic INPs and constraining aerosol–cloud interactions, e.g., to verify and/or improve simulations of mixed-phase clouds. Here, we present a new long-duration INP dataset from the Arctic: 2 years of predominantly immersion-mode INP concentrations (n INP ) measured continuously at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Barrow Atmospheric Baseline Observatory (BRW) on the North Slope of Alaska. A portable ice nucleation experiment chamber (PINE-03), which simulates adiabatic expansion cooling, was used to directly measure the ground-level INP abundance with an approximately 12 min time resolution from October 2021 to December 2023. We document PINE-03 n INP measurements as well as estimated ice nucleation active surface site density (n s ) over a wide range of heterogeneous freezing temperatures from −16 to −31 °C from which we introduce new season-specific parameterizations suitable for modeling mixed-phase clouds. Collocated aerosol and meteorological data were analyzed to assess the correlation between ambient n INP , air mass origin region, and meteorological variability. Our findings suggest (1) very high freezing efficiency of INPs across the measured temperatures (n s ≈ 2×10 8 –10 10 m −2 for −16 to −31 °C), which is a factor of 10–1000 times greater efficiency as compared to that found in the previous mid-latitude INP measurements in fall using the same instrument; (2) surprisingly high n INP (≥ 1 L −1 at −25 °C) for the examined temperatures throughout the year that were not measured by PINE-03 at other sites; and (3) high n INP in spring, possibly related to arctic haze episodes. Relatively low concentrations of aerosol surface area and contrasting high-INP concentrations at BRW relative to mid-latitude sites are the possible reasons for the observed high freezing efficiency.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Producing High-fidelity Synthetic Population Ensembles at Scale

Used within social simulations, synthetic population ensembles enable uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for obtaining more robust model inference and prediction. A synthetic population ensemble is a series of plausible virtual reconstructions of an area’s population at the granularity of people and residences, generated stochastically to preserve privacy of the source population survey’s respondents. In this paper, we demonstrate the production of large synthetic population ensembles for the US via Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s UrbanPop framework to support modeling of high spatial resolution energy affordability metrics from nationwide social surveys in collaboration with the fusionACS project. Our initial task involves creating ensembles for 17 US metropolitan areas, each consisting of 41 population instances (a base realization and 40 replicates). To accomplish this task at scale, we configured an integrated system comprised of a research cloud, virtual containerization, GPU-enhanced functionality, and a dual API/CLI to interact with UrbanPop’s maturing Likeness Python ecosystem. We observe a reduction in theoretical execution time while maintaining high-fidelity approximations of residential totals by metropolitan area and the demographic characteristics of neighborhoods. We discuss expansion of our approach to produce synthetic population ensembles for the entire US, particularly plans to establish automated workflows for job orchestration to increase computational efficiency, as well as provide outlook for broadening applications of the ensembles.

Gaboardi, James [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000247766826)↗

DOE OSTI2023

Detection of open cluster rotation fields from Gaia EDR3 proper motions

Context: Most stars from in groups which with time disperse, building the field population of their host galaxy. In the Milky Way, open clusters have been continuously forming in the disk up to the present time, providing it with stars spanning a broad range of ages and masses. Observations of the details of cluster dissolution are, however, scarce. One of the main difficulties is obtaining a detailed characterisation of the internal cluster kinematics, which requires very high-quality proper motions. For open clusters, which are typically loose groups with tens to hundreds of members, there is the additional difficulty of inferring kinematic structures from sparse and irregular distributions of stars. Aims: Here, we aim to analyse internal stellar kinematics of open clusters, and identify rotation, expansion, or contraction patterns. Methods: We use Gaia Early Data Release 3 (EDR3) astrometry and integrated nested Laplace approximations to perform vector-field inference and create spatio-kinematic maps of 1237 open clusters. The sample is composed of clusters for which individual stellar memberships were already known, thus minimising contamination from field stars in the velocity maps. Projection effects were corrected using EDR3 data complemented with radial velocities from Gaia Data Release 2 and other surveys. Results: We report the detection of rotation patterns in eight open clusters. Nine additional clusters display possible rotation signs. We also observe 14 expanding clusters, with 15 other objects showing possible expansion patterns. Contraction is evident in two clusters, with one additional cluster presenting a more uncertain detection. In total, 53 clusters are found to display kinematic structures. Within these, elongated spatial distributions suggesting tidal tails are found in five clusters. These results indicate that the approach developed here can recover kinematic patterns from noisy vector fields, as those from astrometric measurements of open clusters or other stellar or galactic populations, thus offering a powerful probe for exploring the internal kinematics and dynamics of these types of objects.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Natively Periodic Fast Multipole Method: Approximating the Optimal Green’s Function

The fast multipole method (FMM) obeys periodic boundary conditions "natively" if it uses a periodic Green's function for computing the multipole expansion in the interaction zone of each FMM oct-tree node. One can define the "optimal" Green's function for such a method that results in the numerical solution that converges to the equivalent particle-mesh (PM) solution in the limit of sufficiently high order of multipoles. A discrete functional equation for the optimal Green's function can be derived, but is not practically useful as methods for its solution are not known. Instead, this paper presents an approximation for the optimal Green's function that is accurate to better than 10 -3 in ${L}_{\mathrm{MAX}}$ norm and 10 -4 in L 2 norm for practically useful multipole counts. Such an approximately optimal Green's function offers a practical way for implementing the FMM with periodic boundary conditions natively, without the need to compute lattice sums or to rely on hybrid FMM-PM approaches.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2025

Untangling Sources of Error in the Density-Functional Many-Body Expansion

The many-body expansion provides a framework for data-driven applications of electronic structure theory, including parametrization of classical force fields and machine learning. In this article, we demonstrate that its use significantly amplifies quadrature grid errors when modern density-functional approximations are employed. Standard grids that work well in conventional density-functional calculations result in runaway error accumulation when used with the many-body expansion. At the same time, delocalization error is also exacerbated, leading to exaggerated estimates of nonadditive n-body interactions. This is illustrated for anion–water clusters using the SCAN, r2SCAN, ωB97X-V and ωB97M-V functionals. By employing dense quadrature grids, the inherent self-interaction error is exposed, which can then be mitigated using a variety of other strategies.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Experimental validation of multiphysics model simulations of the thermal response of a cement clinker rotary kiln at laboratory scale

Abstract An increasing demand for buildings, transportation systems and civil infrastructure development has driven expansion of cement consumption world‐wide, producing a significant increase in related global energy demand. With approximately 7% of the world‐wide industrial energy consumption (10.7 exajoules [EJ]), the cement industry is the third most energy intensive industrial processes and a key component for concrete, the most consumed composite material in the global construction industry. In cement manufacturing, the cement kiln accounts for most of the energy consumption in the production process. As the heart of a cement plant, the cement kiln is where the kiln feed primarily containing calcium oxide (CaO), silica (SiO 2 ), alumina (Al 2 O 3 ), and iron (Fe 2 O 3 ) are thermally and chemically transformed into clinker minerals. The presented work developed a multiphysics model, designed and built a laboratory‐scale rotary cement clinker kiln, and produced cement clinker at laboratory‐scale. The model was developed to study the interaction between the various thermal, fluid dynamic and chemical interactions involved in the sintering process used to form Portland cement clinker in an effort to reduce energy use. The analytical model was validated through experimental testing using a unique laboratory‐scale rotary cement kiln developed during the investigation. Also demonstrated was the feasibility of producing clinker at laboratory scale. This modeling and lab scale tests were designed to better understand the clinker sintering process so that operational and quality decisions can be made to optimize energy consumption without compromising cement clinker quality. The computational fluid dynamics modeling was developed in COMSOL Multiphysics 6.0. The characteristics of the combustion fluid flow, concentration of species, temperature and heat transfer were studied for a turbulent flow of methane (CH 4 ) gas and oxygen (O 2 ). Theory suggests that heat transfer impacts the cement production process but the multiphysics model more accurately describes the convection, conduction, and radiant heat transfer in the kilning process and thus allows for a better understanding of the energy exchange driving the chemical reactions that produce Portland cement. Clinker minerals were formed because of appropriate burning conditions implemented during experimental model validation.

Tabares, Juan David↗

DOE OSTI2024

High-Throughput Microstructural Characterization and Process Correlation Using Automated Electron Backscatter Diffraction

The need to optimize the processing conditions of additively manufactured (AM) metals and alloys has driven advances in throughput capabilities for material property measurements such as tensile strength or hardness. High-throughput (HT) characterization of AM metal microstructure has fallen significantly behind the pace of property measurements due to intrinsic bottlenecks associated with the artisan and labor-intensive preparation methods required to produce highly polished surfaces. This inequality in data throughput has led to a reliance on heuristics to connect process to structure or structure to properties for AM structural materials. In this study, we show a transformative approach to achieve laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) printing, HT preparation using dry electropolishing and HT electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD). This approach was used to construct a library of > 600 experimental EBSD sample sets spanning a diverse range of LPBF process conditions for AM Kovar. This vast library is far more expansive in parameter space than most state-of-the-art studies, yet it required only approximately 10 labor hours to acquire. Build geometries, surface preparation methods, and microscopy details, as well as the entire library of >600 EBSD data sets over the two sample design versions, have been shared with intent for the materials community to leverage the data and further advance the approach. Using this library, we investigated process–structure relationships and uncovered an unexpected, strong dependence of microstructure on location within the build, when varied, using otherwise identical laser parameters.

Characterization and Analytical Technique↗

DOE OSTI2024

Data-driven projection pursuit adaptation of polynomial chaos expansions for dependent high-dimensional parameters

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) and inference involving a large number of parameters are valuable tools for problems associated with heterogeneous and non-stationary behaviors. The difficulty with these problems is exacerbated when these parameters are statistically dependent requiring statistical characterization over joint measures. Probabilistic modeling methodologies stand as effective tools in the realms of UQ and inference. Among these, polynomial chaos expansions (PCE), when adapted to low-dimensional quantities of interest (QoI), provide effective yet accurate approximations for these QoI in terms of an adapted orthogonal basis. These adaptation techniques have been cast as projection pursuits in Gaussian Hilbert space in what has been referred to as a projection pursuit adaptation (PPA) by Xiaoshu Zeng and Roger Ghanem (2023). The PPA method efficiently identifies an optimal low-dimensional space for representing the QoI and simultaneously evaluates an optimal PCE within that space. The quality of this approximation clearly depends on the size of the training dataset, which is typically a function of the adapted reduced dimension. Here, the complexity of the problem is thus mediated by the complexity of the low-dimensional quantity of interest and not the complexity of the high-dimensional parameter space.

Data-driven↗

DOE OSTI2025

The Singlet–Triplet Gap of Cyclobutadiene: The CIPSI-Driven CC( P ; Q ) Study

An accurate determination of singlet−triplet gaps in biradicals, including cyclobutadiene in the automerization barrier region where one has to balance the substantial nondynamical many-electron correlation effects characterizing the singlet ground state with the predominantly dynamical correlations of the lowest-energy triplet, remains a challenge for many quantum chemistry methods. High-level coupled-cluster (CC) approaches, such as the CC method with a full treatment of singly, doubly, and triply excited clusters (CCSDT), are often capable of providing reliable results, but routine application of such methods is hindered by their high computational costs. We have recently proposed a practical alternative to converging the CCSDT energetics at small fractions of the computational effort, even when electron correlations become stronger and connected triply excited clusters are larger and nonperturbative, by merging the CC(P;Q) moment expansions with the selected configuration interaction methodology abbreviated as CIPSI. We demonstrate that one can accurately approximate the highly accurate CCSDT potential surfaces characterizing the lowest singlet and triplet states of cyclobutadiene along the automerization coordinate and the gap between them using tiny fractions of triply excited cluster amplitudes identified with the help of relatively inexpensive CIPSI Hamiltonian diagonalizations.

Basis sets↗

DOE OSTI2022

Inherent Anharmonicity of Harmonic Solids

Atomic vibrations, in the form of phonons, are foundational in describing the thermal behavior of materials. The possible frequencies of phonons in materials are governed by the complex bonding between atoms, which is physically represented by a spring-mass model that can account for interactions (spring forces) between the atoms (masses). The lowest-order, harmonic , approximation only considers linear forces between atoms and is thought incapable of explaining phenomena like thermal expansion and thermal conductivity, which are attributed to nonlinear, anharmonic , interactions. Here, we show that the kinetic energy of atoms in a solid produces a pressure much like the kinetic energy of atoms in a gas does. This vibrational or phonon pressure naturally increases with temperature, as it does in a gas and therefore results in a thermal expansion. Because thermal expansion thermodynamically defines a Grüneisen parameter γ , which is a typical metric of anharmonicity, we show that even a harmonic solid will necessarily have some anharmonicity. A consequence of this phonon pressure model is a harmonic estimation of the Grüneisen parameter as γ ≈ 3 / 2 3 − 4 x 2 / 1 + 2 x 2 , where x = v t / v l is the ratio of the transverse and longitudinal speeds of sound. We demonstrate the immediate utility of this model by developing a high-throughput harmonic estimate of lattice thermal conductivity that is comparable to other state-of-the-art estimations. By linking harmonic and anharmonic properties explicitly, this study provokes new ideas about the fundamental nature of anharmonicity, while also providing a basis for new material engineering design metrics.

42 ENGINEERING↗