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Bayesian Analysis of TRISO Fuel: Quantifying Model Inadequacy, Incorporating Lower-Length-Scale Effects, and Developing Parallel Active Learning Capabilities

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)’s Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program aims to develop predictive capabilities by applying computational methods to the analysis and design of advanced reactor and fuel-cycle systems. This program has been providing engineering-scale support for the continued development of BISON, a high-fidelity, high-resolution fuel performance tool. Fuel behavior in nuclear reactors is governed by a complex network of mechanisms that interact with various other physics aspects in the reactor system. Any model developed to represent fuel behavior will likely be idealized, resulting in uncertainties when comparing their predictions against the observed data. In Fiscal Year (FY)-23, we initiated the Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) work by using Bayesian methods to establish a level of model trustworthiness and further improve it, with a particular emphasis on TRI-Structural isOtropic (TRISO) nuclear fuel. This year, we further expanded on that UQ work by investigating an approach to quantifying model inadequacy and accounting for lower-length scale (LLS) effects in TRISO silver (Ag) release modeling. Furthermore, we are implementing parallel active learning capabilities to reduce the computational cost (i.e., required computational resources and elapsed time) of performing UQ. Specifically, we utilized The Kennedy O’Hagan framework for Bayesian uncertainty quantification (KOH) to account for model inadequacy in TRISO Ag release predictions made by BISON. The KOH framework represents an improvement over the standard Bayesian framework used in FY-23. Explicitly accounting for model inadequacy in the Bayesian framework helps establish the level of experimental noise uncertainty in the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) data. We compared the inverse UQ results obtained from both the standard Bayesian and KOH frameworks in light of the AGR-2/3/4 data, and also compared the predictive UQ results obtained from these two frameworks in light of the AGR-1 data. Next, we investigated the impact of considering LLS effects in the Ag release simulations. We developed an expanded database of LLS simulated effective diffusivities for Ag, covering a wide range of microstructures and temperatures. Using this database, we developed a framework for incorporating LLS effects into the engineering-scale Ag release UQ. We developed both parametric and non-parametric approaches for bridging the length scales. We then investigated the inverse UQ results in light of the AGR-2/3/4 data and the predictive UQ results in light of the AGR-1 data, and compared the LLS-informed approach and the Arrhenius equation, which does not include microstructure information. Finally, we discussed implementing parallel active learning capabilities in the Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE)/BISON to reduce the computational cost (i.e., computational resources and elapsed time) of Bayesian UQ. For verification purposes, we first tested these new capabil ities on a species interaction problem. We then demonstrated them on the TRISO Ag release application, showing that parallel active learning capabilities can enhance the accuracy of UQ while also substantially reducing the computational cost in comparison to the reference methods developed in FY-23.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS

High Energy Physics Network Requirements Review: Final Report, July 2024–December 2024

The world-class research infrastructure at the US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science (SC) provides the research community with premier observational, experimental, computational, and network capabilities. Each user facility is designed to provide unique capabilities to advance the core DOE mission in science and technology for its SC program to stimulate rich scientific discoveries and enhance its innovation ecosystem. Research communities gather and flourish around each user facility, bringing together new and enhanced perspectives. The continual reinvention of the practice of science — as users and staff forge novel approaches expressed in research workflows — unlocks new discoveries and propels scientific progress. Within this research ecosystem, the high-performance computing (HPC) and networking user facilities stewarded by the SC’s Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) program play a dynamic cross-cutting role, enabling complex workflows demanding high-performance data, networking, and computing solutions. The ASCR facilities enterprise seeks to understand and meet the needs and requirements across SC and DOE domain science programs and priority efforts, highlighted by the formal requirements review methodology. Between July and December 2024, the Energy Sciences Network (ESnet) and the Office of High Energy Physics (HEP) of the DOE-SC organized an ESnet requirements review of HEP-supported program activities. Preparation for these events included identification of key stakeholders: program and facility management, research groups, and technology providers. Each stakeholder group was asked to prepare formal case study documents about its relationship to the HEP program to build a complete understanding of the current, near-term, and long-term status, expectations, and processes that will support the science going forward.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS

Characterization of Peripheral Neurophotonic Systems for High-Performance Human-Computer Interfaces (CRADA Final Report)

As part of the Cyclotron Road program, Morphosis Inc. sought to investigate a non-invasive neuromuscular sensing approach for use as an intuitive and secure human–computer interface. These highly miniaturized, wearable neural interfaces were completely non-invasive and maintained stable, high-bandwidth, long-term access to a user’s actions, intent, and identity, while offering an exceptionally high signal-to-noise ratio compared to contemporary neural recording technologies. The widespread adoption of neural interfaces had the potential to reshape how people interact with technology, with profound societal impacts. Millions worldwide suffered from movement and/or speech disabilities, and these tools had the potential to democratize access to technology to enhance autonomy and quality of life. More broadly, interfaces capable of accurately conveying intentions and safeguarding identities could serve as a cornerstone for privacy, trust, and personal authenticity in digital environments. The use of thought-driven control of digitally enabled devices and governance of digital identities had the potential to revolutionize relationships with technology, transforming how people learn, communicate, and interact with the world.

42 ENGINEERING

The U.S. Department of Energy Computational Science Graduate Fellowship, 1991-2021: Follow-Up Study Shows Major Impact on Recipients and the Scientific Workforce

Since 1991, the U.S. Department of Energy Computational Science Graduate Fellowship (DOE CSGF) has addressed DOE National Laboratory needs as well as demands in the national workforce for trained professionals in computational science and engineering. Sponsored by the Department of Energy's Office of Science and the National Nuclear Security Administration, the DOE CSGF supports doctoral students in the pursuit of novel scientific or engineering discoveries using high-performance computing (HPC) resources. To meet the program’s core requirements, recipients participate in multidisciplinary studies, carry out at least one 12-week DOE laboratory research practicum, and contribute to an annual program review where the fellows present their research for sponsor review. The Krell Institute, which as managed the fellowship on behalf of the DOE since 1997, has commissioned several follow-up studies to examine the DOE CSGF recipients’ characteristics, fellows’ outcomes and professional accomplishments, alumni’s career paths and achievements, and recipients’ impact on national priorities through research and education.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

The U.S. Department of Energy Computational Science Graduate Fellowship, 1991-2021: Follow-Up Study Shows Major Impact on Recipients and the Scientific Workforce

Since 1991, the U.S. Department of Energy Computational Science Graduate Fellowship (DOE CSGF) has addressed DOE National Laboratory needs as well as demands in the national workforce for trained professionals in computational science and engineering. Sponsored by the Department of Energy's Office of Science and the National Nuclear Security Administration, the DOE CSGF supports doctoral students in the pursuit of novel scientific or engineering discoveries using high-performance computing (HPC) resources. To meet the program’s core requirements, recipients participate in multidisciplinary studies, carry out at least one 12-week DOE laboratory research practicum, and contribute to an annual program review where the fellows present their research for sponsor review. The Krell Institute, which as managed the fellowship on behalf of the DOE since 1997, has commissioned several follow-up studies to examine the DOE CSGF recipients’ characteristics, fellows’ outcomes and professional accomplishments, alumni’s career paths and achievements, and recipients’ impact on national priorities through research and education.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Preparing MPICH for exascale

The advent of exascale supercomputers heralds a new era of scientific discovery, yet it introduces significant architectural challenges that must be overcome for MPI applications to fully exploit its potential. Among these challenges is the adoption of heterogeneous architectures, particularly the integration of GPUs to accelerate computation. Additionally, the complexity of multithreaded programming models has also become a critical factor in achieving performance at scale. The efficient utilization of hardware acceleration for communication, provided by modern NICs, is also essential for achieving low latency and high throughput communication in such complex systems. In response to these challenges, the MPICH library, a high-performance and widely used Message Passing Interface (MPI) implementation, has undergone significant enhancements. Here, this paper presents four major contributions that prepare MPICH for the exascale transition. First, we describe a lightweight communication stack that leverages the advanced features of modern NICs to maximize hardware acceleration. Second, our work showcases a highly scalable multithreaded communication model that addresses the complexities of concurrent environments. Third, we introduce GPU-aware communication capabilities that optimize data movement in GPU-integrated systems. Finally, we present a new datatype engine aimed at accelerating the use of MPI derived datatypes on GPUs. These improvements in the MPICH library not only address the immediate needs of exascale computing architectures but also set a foundation for exploiting future innovations in high-performance computing. By embracing these new designs and approaches, MPICH-derived libraries from HPE Cray and Intel were able to achieve real exascale performance on OLCF Frontier and ALCF Aurora respectively.

Guo, Yanfei [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Ar

ASME Design Code Rule Changes for Nuclear Graphite

The American Society of Mechanical Engineers Boiler Pressure and Vessel Code (ASME BPVC) Section III, Division 5, Article HHA-3000 outlines graphite core component and graphite core assembly design guidelines. Graphite core components are defined as ?components manufactured from graphite that are installed to form a graphite core assembly within the reactor pressure vessel of a high temperature, graphite moderated fission reactor.? (p. 413) Graphites? inherent defect distributions do not allow for deterministic material reliability. Rather, graphite has variable strength distributions which change by grade. Article HHA-3000 outlines two semi-probabilistic methods, the full and simplified assessments, which set design load limit targets for each of three component structural reliability classes. The Design Task Group was officially recognized as a specialized task group within ASME November of 2023, though we?ve been collaborating since 2022. The purpose of the Design Task Group is to correct, clarify, and make HHA-3000 function as intended. The Design Task Group will sunset once we?ve achieved our objectives. The Design Task Group was specifically told to not write new Code. While there may be more precise and more accurate methods to determine reliability targets, the current methods are conservative, relatively simple to implement, and have thus far been considered satisfactory for setting design reliability targets. Much of the ground-work to write proposal files and background documents for records to make the changes needed to achieve our objective have been completed. The Design Task Group has documented much of their work through papers, presentations, and memorandums. Three memorandums in which INL team members had substantial contributions are found in the Appendices: FEA Modeling for the Baseline Program, Evaluating the Effects on Margin of Updating the Threshold and Shape Parameters in the Full Assessment, and Interpretations of the Full and Simplified Assessments in ASME BPVC. Most of the on-going work to achieve the Design Task Group?s objective will be addressing comments on existing records and moving records through the balloting process. The Design Task Group met bi-weekly mostly through the end of FY2023. Since February 2024, the Design Task Group has mostly been completed with solving and documenting the technical issues associated with the assessments. Unless new tasks are identified, the remaining work of the Design Task Group will be political and editorial.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

cclib 2.0: An updated architecture for interoperable computational chemistry

Interoperability in computational chemistry is elusive, impeded by the independent development of software packages and idiosyncratic nature of their output files. The cclib library was introduced in 2006 as an attempt to improve this situation by providing a consistent interface to the results of various quantum chemistry programs. The shared API across programs enabled by cclib has allowed users to focus on results as opposed to output and to combine data from multiple programs or develop generic downstream tools. Initial development, however, did not anticipate the rapid progress of computational capabilities, novel methods, and new programs; nor did it foresee the growing need for customizability. Here, we recount this history and present cclib 2, focused on extensibility and modularity. We also introduce recent design pivots—the formalization of cclib’s intermediate data representation as a tree-based structure, a new combinator-based parser organization, and parsed chemical properties as extensible objects.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH

Integration of scanning probe microscope with high-performance computing: Fixed-policy and reward-driven workflows implementation

The rapid development of computation power and machine learning algorithms has paved the way for automating scientific discovery with a scanning probe microscope (SPM). The key elements toward operationalization of the automated SPM are the interface to enable SPM control from Python codes, availability of high computing power, and development of workflows for scientific discovery. Here, we build a Python interface library that enables controlling an SPM from either a local computer or a remote high-performance computer, which satisfies the high computation power need of machine learning algorithms in autonomous workflows. We further introduce a general platform to abstract the operations of SPM in scientific discovery into fixed-policy or reward-driven workflows. Furthermore, our work provides a full infrastructure to build automated SPM workflows for both routine operations and autonomous scientific discovery with machine learning.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION

A Measurement-Based Adaptive Voltage Regulation Method Considering Topology Changes

This paper proposes an online adaptive data-driven distributed energy resource (DER) dispatch optimization method for voltage control considering topology changes. By using a local sensitivity factor (LSF)-enabled voltage control, traditional DER control can be reformulated into a linear programming (LP) problem, leading to faster computation speeds. Power injection alteration and topology changes are two common operational changes in the distribution network that can affect the LSF and voltage control performance. To address this issue, a robust estimation method is developed to adjust the sensitivity matrix at each time step for the time-varying power injection changes. When topology changes occur, only the allocated predominant LSF submatrices are updated based on measurement data, allowing for a fast adaptation to the system reconfiguration. Results obtained from a real distribution feeder in Southern California demonstrate its robustness as compared to traditional volt-var control and constant LSF matrix dispatch control methods.

DERs

Endogenizing Probabilistic Resource Adequacy Risks in Deterministic Capacity Expansion Models

In this work, we demonstrate how power system capacity expansion models can understate the stochastic effects of thermal outages when considering resource availabilities on an hourly expected value basis, yielding system designs with multiple orders of magnitude more shortfall risk than stated adequacy targets. We develop a novel approximation approach to efficiently endogenize awareness of this risk in a deterministic, linear capacity expansion framework. We compare this approach to exogenous tuning of an energy reserve margin, the leading alternative method to compensate for unmodeled probabilistic shortfall risk. Empirical results from a test system show that the new endogenous method cost-effectively meets all regional reliability targets with a single optimization solve, and produces a near-identical system design as the incumbent method without the need for repeated re-optimizations to find an appropriate reserve level. The endogenous method may also use iterative re-optimizations to further improve solution quality, although these incremental benefits were modest in the system studied.

capacity expansion modeling

Integrated Molten Salt Reactor Modeling Capabilities in NEAMS Thermal Hydraulics Tools

The DOE Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program supports a full range of computational thermal fluids analysis capabilities and code developments for a broad range of advanced reactor concepts. The research and development approach under the thermal fluids technical area synergistically combines three length and time scales in a hierarchical multi-scale approach. To enable multi-scale thermal fluids capability using these codes, a key joint effort has been underway to develop an integrated system- and engineering-scale thermal fluids analysis capability, through integration of SAM and Pronghorn codes, both based on the MOOSE framework.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS

Aligned carbon nanotubes for 1,000x improvement in computing (CRADA Final Report)

As part of the Cyclotron Road program, the Aligned Carbon team worked to improve and bring to market their technology to manufacture carbon nanotubes (CNTs) for integrated circuits. There are multiple applications which can benefit from the use of CNT based transistors in integrated circuits, including high performance computing, RF data transmission, and biosensing. Each of these applications faces a problem of poor starting CNT material to come to market. Aligned Carbon offers material with the highest ceiling of performance based around a fully aligned, uniform, on-wafer growth of CNTs and our proprietary purification process to remove metallic CNTs leaving only the semi-conducting ones behind. Further, Aligned Carbon has been guided by scalable manufacturing processes that will fit seamlessly into the integrated circuit foundry model of chip fabrication.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Los Alamos National Laboratory R&D Intern

This report details the responsibilities, outcomes, and project details of a summer R&D internship at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). LANL is a multidisciplinary laboratory that focuses on current cutting-edge research in many fields such as national security, engineering, materials science, computational modeling, and advanced manufacturing. The goal of the internship project was to work with lab engineers and resources to develop an energy absorbing structure for high-velocity impact applications. The successful development of this technology and methodology would not only positively impact future project funding but also contribute to the laboratory's commitment to solve national security challenges through simultaneous excellence. Such devices would also support efforts surrounding the research and development of energy absorbing structures and would provide new vital information backed by experimentation. Different computational and modeling methods were used to design these structures, in addition to qualitative background information provided by past literature. The resultant designs were successfully tested, and the test results were successfully quantified. From these results, new computational methods were developed through python programming and modeling to predict ideal materialistic properties for these structures given a sufficiently defined application.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Integrated Molten Salt Reactor Modeling Capabilities in NEAMS Thermal Hydraulics Tools

The DOE neams program supports a full range of computational thermal fluids analysis capabilities and code developments for a broad range of advanced reactor concepts. The research and development approach under the thermal fluids technical area synergistically combines three length and time scales in a hierarchical multi-scale approach. To enable multi-scale thermal fluids capability using these codes, a key joint effort has been underway to develop an integrated system- and engineering-scale thermal fluids analysis capability, through integration of SAM and Pronghorn codes, both based on the MOOSE framework. This report summarizes recent advances in developing an integrated system- and engineering-scale modeling capability for the msr concept, which has gained significant interest in recent years. A consistent framework was established by coupling Pronghorn and SAM through the Saline interface, with thermophysical properties provided by the Molten Salt Thermal Property Database (MSTDB-TP). Further improvements were made to the coupling schemes and domain-overlapping strategies, enhancing the stability and robustness of multi-code simulations. Verification and validation efforts demonstrate the accuracy of this integration across a range of benchmark problems, including one-dimensional heated pipe flows, three-dimensional natural convection loops with evolving isotopic compositions, and \gls{msre} demonstration cases. Within Pronghorn, new capabilities were introduced to model corrosion and noble-metal plating phenomena, supported by an extended thermal-hydraulics framework and refined turbulence treatments. To capture two-phase flow behavior, a multiphase Euler–Euler model was implemented in Pronghorn, including advanced closure relations, high-resolution advection techniques, and capillary force reconstruction. Preliminary verification cases confirm the fidelity of the approach, while planned validation efforts target canonical multiphase benchmarks and application to msr components such as the msre pump bowl. Finally, updates to SAM’s msr mass transfer modeling were extended to consider noble gas migration into porous structures like graphite. The point kinetics model was updated to include reactivity feedback contributions from any defined species, such as xenon. The gas transport model was expanded for applicability to gas mixtures, bubble efflux phenomena, and species transport between liquid and gas phases. A selection of multi-scale Sherwood number correlations from MOSCATO/NekRS and multi-phase correlations from literature have been added for improved accuracy in calculating mass transfer coefficients. A companion effort on developing system-level redox corrosion has also been incorporated into SAM. Collectively, these enhancements strengthen the predictive capability of SAM and Pronghorn for simulating MSR thermal-hydraulics, corrosion, multiphase behavior, and fission-product transport, providing a more complete toolset for design, safety analysis, and licensing support of next-generation \gls{msr}s.

42 - ENGINEERING

Revolutionizing Neuromorphic Computing for Science (Brochure on the 2024 ASCR Workshop on Neuromorphic Computing for Science)

The ASCR basic research needs for Neuromorphic Computing for Science workshop was held in September 2024. The workshop brochure and report aim to inform and draft a set of grand challenges for advancing the field of neuromorphic computing and developing proof of principle neuromorphic circuits applicable for High Performance Computer (HPC) acceleration for scientific discovery, and brainstorm ideas needed for a successful, robust, and world leading basic research program. The resulting priority research directions are: (1) Neuromorphic computing circuit primitives; (2) Connectivity, communication, and hardware integration; (3) Neuroscience-derived dynamics and algorithms; and (4) Ecosystem for scalable neuromorphic co-design. Breakthroughs in understanding, designing, and prototyping the circuitry and simulation capabilities for a truly neuromorphic computer are essential to enable progress in the field.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Revolutionizing Neuromorphic Computing for Science (Report for the 2024 ASCR Workshop on Neuromorphic Computing for Science)

The ASCR basic research needs for Neuromorphic Computing for Science workshop was held in September 2024. The workshop brochure and report aim to inform and draft a set of grand challenges for advancing the field of neuromorphic computing and developing proof of principle neuromorphic circuits applicable for High Performance Computer (HPC) acceleration for scientific discovery, and brainstorm ideas needed for a successful, robust, and world leading basic research program. The resulting priority research directions are: (1) Neuromorphic computing circuit primitives; (2) Connectivity, communication, and hardware integration; (3) Neuroscience-derived dynamics and algorithms; and (4) Ecosystem for scalable neuromorphic co-design. Breakthroughs in understanding, designing, and prototyping the circuitry and simulation capabilities for a truly neuromorphic computer are essential to enable progress in the field.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

An Evaluation of The Dynamic Physical Security Risk Assessment Methodology for Fleet-Wide Applications

The requirements for U.S. nuclear power plants to maintain a large onsite physical security force contribute to their high operational costs. The cost of maintaining the current physical security posture is approximately 10% of the overall operation and maintenance budget for commercial nuclear power plants. The goal of the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program’s physical security pathway is to develop tools, methods, and technologies and provide the technical basis for an optimized physical security posture. The conservatisms built into current security postures may be analyzed and minimized to reduce security costs while still ensuring adequate security and operational safety. The research performed at Idaho National Laboratory within LWRS program’s physical security pathway has successfully developed a dynamic force-on-force modeling framework using various computer simulation tools and integrating them with the dynamic assessment Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD) tool. This integrated process for physical security analysis is named Modeling and Analysis for Safety Security using Dynamic EMRALD Framework (MASS-DEF). This document provides an update on the progress in applying the MASS-DEF process to an operating commercial nuclear power plant as well as additional industry feedback regarding use of the tool for other physical security risk-informed topics. This report is only a summary of the progress and does not contain specific modeling results as those contain sensitive security information. Previous reports described how a user could integrate their plant-specific force-on-force models with the dynamic simulation tool EMRALD, model operator actions, and integrate with probabilistic risk assessment tools, such as CAFTA (Computer Aided Fault Tree Analysis System) or SAPHIRE (Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations), and with thermal-hydraulic tools, such as RELAP-5 or MAAP. Previous reports applied various combinations of available simulations codes with EMRALD using generic plant models to demonstrate how to perform the analysis. This report is an update the progress of applying the dynamic computational framework to an actual nuclear facility using their security scenarios and timelines. This report also provides an update to the procedural guidance for the MASS-DEF process and an overview of the generic models available for use by utilities. This report does not contain any plant’s sensitive information and/or safeguards information. This study’s purpose was to verify that the results achieved using generic models are similar to actual plant results and refine our guidance on the use of the framework. This assessment enables further analysis, such as what-if scenarios and staff-reduction evaluation, thereby optimizing physical security at plants.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS