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DOE OSTI2024

Phase stability in the Hf-N and Zr-N systems

Hf and Zr nitrides are promising compounds for many technologically important areas, including high-temperature structural applications, quantum computing, and solar and optical applications. Here, this article reports on a comprehensive first-principles statistical mechanics study of phase stability in the Hf-N and Zr-N binary systems. A high solubility of nitrogen in the hcp forms of Hf and Zr is predicted. The rocksalt forms of HfN and ZrN can also tolerate a high degree of off-stoichiometry through the introduction of nitrogen and metal vacancies. The Hf-N binary favors a family of stacking faulted parent crystal structures at intermediate nitrogen concentrations that host a unique form of short-range order among nitrogen interstitials and vacancies. These phases can accommodate some degree of configurational entropy and remain ordered to temperatures as high as 1200 K.

Monte Carlo methods↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Physics-Guided Deep Learning for Complex System Health Management and Decision Making

The landscape of complex engineered systems is rapidly evolving, from smart manufacturing facilities to next-generation transportation vehicles. As these systems become increasingly sophisticated and interconnected, the need for advanced health management systems grows ever more critical. These systems must go beyond simple monitoring, actively predicting potential failures before they occur. This paradigm shift from fixed maintenance schedules to condition-based predictions is key to optimizing system performance, enhancing safety, and paving the way for autonomous decision-making across various industries. Whether in industrial processes, energy systems, or advanced transportation, the ability to anticipate and prevent failures is becoming a cornerstone of operational excellence. To accurately predict the future health of any complex system, knowledge of its current health state and future operational conditions is essential. Recent advancements in data-driven algorithms have generated growing interest in artificial intelligence for industrial applications. However, the limitations of pure data-driven methods, particularly in industries where data acquisition is costly and limited, have become apparent. This has led to a focus on blending physics with data-driven algorithms, mitigating the drawbacks of both approaches while emphasizing their respective advantages. This research proposes a novel framework for integrating physics-based performance models with deep learning algorithms for the prognostics of complex safety-critical systems. In this approach, physics-based models serve as a blueprint, capturing fundamental system behaviors, while deep learning algorithms, leveraging real-world sensor data, fill in gaps and identify subtle patterns indicative of potential problems. This hybrid methodology, utilizing techniques such as Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs), offers a powerful solution for predicting system health. By fusing domain knowledge with data-driven insights, this approach promises more accurate, adaptable, and reliable models for health prediction. The resulting framework is versatile, applicable across various sectors including aerospace, manufacturing, and energy systems, ultimately contributing to safer, more efficient operations in our increasingly complex technological landscape.

Diagnostics↗

NASA NTRS2026

Incremental Learning for Passive Microwave Precipitation Retrievals using Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder

Spaceborne passive microwave (PMW) radiometry is central to global precipitation monitoring, yet retrieval uncertainties remain substantial, particularly for cross-track sounders whose variable footprints and channel configurations are optimized for atmospheric temperature and moisture profiling rather than precipitation. Consequently, existing operational products often exhibit angular-dependent biases, limited effective swath utilization, unrealistic rainfall probability distributions, and systematic misclassification of precipitation phase. These limitations are further compounded by the scarcity of globally accurate and representative precipitation observations, as training data from the Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) and the Cloud Profiling Radar (CPR) are spatially sparse, lack uniform global coverage, and exhibit heterogeneous error characteristics across precipitation regimes. To address these challenges, this study presents a supervised retrieval algorithm that incrementally trains an ensemble of extreme gradient-boosted decision trees by augmenting base learners with pre-training on reanalysis data and post-training on coincident DPR and CPR observations matched with the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS). By transferring prior information from reanalysis to posterior constraints from radar observations and adopting a sequential detection–estimation strategy for precipitation phase and rate retrieval, the proposed approach yields retrievals across the full ATMS swath that are largely free from persistent deficiencies in current Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) passive microwave operational products. In particular, the method resolves bimodal artifacts in rainfall retrievals and mitigates systematic high-latitude snowfall biases, including overestimation across the Arctic and underestimation across the Antarctic. Validation against independent Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) data over the Contiguous United States (CONUS) further demonstrates improved performance in precipitation phase detection and rate estimation relative to both reanalysis and current GPM PMW products.

Mahyar Garshasbi↗

DOE OSTI2024

Investigating two-dimensional adjoint QCD on the lattice

We present our investigations of SU(N) adjoint QCD in two dimensions with one Majorana fermion on the lattice. We determine the relevant parameter range for the simulations with Wilson fermions and present results for Polyakov loop, chiral condensate, and string tension. In the theory with massive fermions, all observables we checked show qualitative agreement between numerical lattice data and theory, while the massless limit is more subtle since chiral and non-invertible symmetry of the continuum theory are explicitly broken by lattice regularization. In thermal compactification, we observe N perturbative vacua for the holonomy potential at high-T with instanton events connecting them, and a unique vacuum at low-T. At finite-N, this is a cross-over and it turns to a phase transition at large-N thermodynamic limit. In circle compactification with periodic boundary conditions, we observe a unique center-symmetric minimum at any radius. In continuum, the instantons in the thermal case carry zero modes (for even N) and indeed, in the lattice simulations, we observe that chiral condensate is dominated by instanton centers, where zero modes are localized. We present lattice results on the issue of confinement vs. screening in the theory and comment on the roles of chiral symmetry and non-invertible symmetry.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Seasonal variation of the surface cross-shelf exchange in the northern South China Sea: a Lagrangian perspective

Previous studies on cross-shelf exchange, predominantly adopted an Eulerian perspective, struggled to identify water sources and pathways. Using a high-resolution regional ocean modeling system (ROMS) and Lagrangian particle tracking, this study systematically investigates the seasonal variation and dynamics of surface cross-shelf exchange in the northern South China Sea (NSCS) from a Lagrangian perspective. Based on daily released 30-day drifter trajectories we identify the key pathways, source regions for surface cross-shelf exchange, revealing pronounced seasonal variability. Results show the surface cross-shelf exchange generally following monsoon-driven Ekman transport. However, local dynamics, especially topographic modulation, can outweigh the expected Ekman-driven transport, producing surface exchange patterns opposite to that predicted from the prevailing winds. Topographic effects vary across different scales. In the coastal waters of western Guangdong during winter, despite downwelling-favorable winds, the modulation of alongshore currents by island topography induces an eastward pressure gradient. This gradient, through geostrophic balance, drives offshore flows opposite to wind-driven Ekman onshore transport. Furthermore, the eastern widened shelf exhibits a distinct seasonal variation of cross-shelf exchange, with strong offshore transport (opposite to the direction of Ekman transport) in winter and exceedingly weak exchange in summer. Analysis of the underlying mechanisms reveals that this winter offshore transport is primarily attributed to geostrophic flows driven by surface pressure gradient that is jointly modulated by the Kuroshio intrusion and local widened shelf topography, and enhanced by cumulative submesoscale processes. In summer, a persistent and strong along-isobath jet acts as a dynamic barrier, effectively suppressing the exchange. These findings highlight the important role of topography in regulating surface material transport, and have important implications for predicting the advection and dispersion of plankton or oil spills over the continental shelf influenced by monsoon.

Hao, Dongliang↗

DOE OSTI2026

Giant Exfoliation Induced Magnetic Coercivity in Fe 3 GaTe 2

Permanent magnets with strong anisotropy and high coercivity underpin modern information and energy technologies, yet rare-earth-free alternatives remain limited. Here, we show that thickness engineering via mechanical exfoliation induces hard magnetic behavior in the van der Waals ferromagnet Fe 3 GaTe 2 . Bulk crystals exhibit Curie temperatures above 350 K but negligible room-temperature coercivity. When thinned below ∼100 nm, the coercive field is dramatically enhanced, reaching nearly 1 T at room temperature for in-plane fields—comparable to conventional hard magnets. Micromagnetic analysis reveals a crossover in magnetization reversal from domain-mediated processes in bulk samples to quasi-coherent rotation in thin flakes, driven by increased effective anisotropy and suppressed domain formation. This thickness-dependent transition enables tuning of magnetic hardness without chemical modification. Combined with high saturation magnetization and robust room-temperature performance, Fe 3 GaTe 2 emerges as a promising rare-earth-free material for spintronic applications. Its layered structure further allows integration into van der Waals heterostructures, where large in-plane coercivity can stabilize magnetic states against perturbations and interlayer coupling, offering potential for high-density nonvolatile memory and domain-wall-based devices.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS2026

Surprisingly Enriched CO and CH4 in Halley-type Comet 13P/Olbers: Clues to Its Interstellar Heritage

The native ice composition of Halley-type Comet 13P/Olbers (hereafter 13P) was measured post-perihelion, on UT 2024 August 16 using iSHELL, the 1–5 μm cross-dispersed, high-resolution facility spectrograph at the NASA InfraRed Telescope Facility. At that time, the heliocentric distance (Rh) of 13P was 1.37 au and the geocentric distance (Δ) was 1.99 au. Using a slit that delivered spectral resolving power RP λ/Δλ 4.5 × 104, two instrument settings targeted rovibrational emissions of seven parent molecules released into the coma through sublimation of ices in the nucleus. These settings provided broad and contiguous or nearly contiguous spectral coverage, one simultaneously measuring H2O, CO, and OCS, and the other simultaneously measuring CH4, C2H6, CH3OH, and H2CO. Meaningful abundances were obtained for all seven species. Our study revealed substantial enrichments of CO and CH4, the two most volatile species systematically targeted at IR wavelengths in comets. Relative to their respective mean abundance ratios among measured comets from the Oort cloud reservoir, CO in 13P was enriched by a factor of about six and CH4 was enriched by a factor of about three. Together with near-average abundances measured for CH3OH and C2H6, this suggests large endowments of CO and CH4 on interstellar grains, yet it could indicate inhibited surface chemistry on the pre-cometary grains subsequently contained in the nucleus or 13P. Assuming that this represents the primordial composition of 13P, it could reflect very low temperatures in its natal environment (∼10 K or lower).

Michael A Disanti↗

DOE OSTI2024

Stellar Population Properties in the Stellar Streams around SPRC047

Abstract We have investigated the properties (e.g., age, metallicity) of the stellar populations of a ringlike tidal stellar stream (or streams) around the edge-on galaxy SPRC047 (z= 0.031) using spectral energy distribution (SED) fits to integrated broadband aperture flux densities. We used visual images in six different bands and Spitzer/IRAC 3.6μm data. We have attempted to derive best-fit stellar population parameters (metallicity, age) in three noncontiguous segments of the stream. Due to the very low surface brightness of the stream, we have performed a deconvolution with a Richardson–Lucy–type algorithm of the low spatial resolution 3.6μm IRAC image, thereby reducing the effect of the point-spread function aliasedemissionfrom the bright edge-on central galaxy at the locations of our three stream segments. Our SED fits that used several different star formation (SF) history priors, from an exponentially decaying SF burst to continuous SF, indicate that the age–metallicity–dust degeneracy is not resolved, most likely because of inadequate wavelength coverage and low signal-to-noise ratios of the low surface brightness features. We also discuss how future deep visual–near-infrared observations, combined with absolute flux calibration uncertainties at or below the 1% level, complemented by equally well absolute flux-calibrated observations in ultraviolet and mid-infrared bands, would improve the accuracy of broadband SED fitting results for low surface brightness targets, such as stellar streams around nearby galaxies that are not resolved into stars.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

NASA NTRS2024

Wave Rotor Enhanced Nuclear (WREN) Propulsion: NASA Innovative Advanced Concepts (NIAC) - Phase I Final Report

Nuclear Thermal Propulsion (NTP) is identified as one of the preferred propulsion technologies for manned missions throughout the solar system (NASA MSFC).[1, 2] The state-ofthe-art NTP cycle is based on a solid core Nuclear Engine for Rocket Vehicle Application (NERVA)[3] class technology (Fig. 1) that is envisioned to provide a specific impulse of 900 seconds doubling chemical rocket performance (450 seconds). Even with this impressive increase, the NTP NERVA designs still have issues providing adequate initial to final mass fractions for high ΔV missions.[4] Nuclear Electric Propulsion (NEP) can provide extremely high Isp (2,000 to over 10,000 seconds) but with only low thrust and limits on mass to power ratios. The need for an electric power source also adds the issue of heat rejection in space where thermal energy conversion is at best 30-40% under ideal conditions. NASA Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD) has recently expressed interest in finding advanced nuclear propulsion technology through the NASA Go:Thrust RFI.[5, 6] A novel Wave Rotor (WR) topping cycle has been proposed for our NASA NIAC concept. It promises to deliver similar thrust as NERVA class NTP propulsion, but with Isp in the 1,200-2,000 second range. Coupled with an NEP cycle, the duty cycle Isp can further be increased (1,800-4,000 seconds) with minimal addition of dry mass. This bimodal design enables fast transit trajectories for manned missions to Mars and revolutionizes the deep space exploration of our solar system.

Nuclear Thermal Propulsion↗

DOE OSTI2026

Divergent carbon use efficiency-growth rate tradeoff in popular biological growth models

Carbon use efficiency (CUE) is an important trait emerging from processes regulating biological growth. CUE can be computed either based on the growth of structural biomass or total biomass divided by substrate uptake rate. Nonequilibrium thermodynamics and observations suggest that, for an exponentially growing population of cells, structural biomass CUE should first increase, then peak, and finally decrease with specific growth rate; meanwhile, total biomass CUE increases asymptotically with specific growth rate. We compared predictions from six popular models that are often used for plant and microbial growth in existing ecosystem models. We found that, for an exponentially growing population of biological cells, (1) the source-driven Pirt and Compromise models predict that structural biomass CUE increase asymptotically with growth rate; (2) the apparent sink-driven modified Droop model predicts that structural biomass CUE decreases with growth rate; and (3) the sink-driven variable internal storage model and two dynamic energy budget models predict that structural biomass CUE first increases, then peaks, and finally decreases with growth rate. Moreover, the modified Droop model predicts that total biomass CUE is constant with growth rate, while all other five models predict that total biomass CUE increases with growth rate asymptotically. For non-exponential biological growth, we show that there is no static relationship between total biomass CUE or structural biomass CUE with respect to either growth rate or temperature. Therefore, we contend that biological growth models should explicitly represent interactions between substrate acquisition, substate transformation, and maintenance respiration to better capture observed CUE dynamics, and the sink-driven model should be preferred for general ecosystem biogeochemistry modeling.

Tang, Jinyun [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborator↗

NASA NTRS2026

Advances in Entry Systems Modeling: Modeling Summer Visit 2025 Technical Reports

This NASA Technical Memorandum presents the collective work carried out during the Modeling Summer Visit (MSV) 2025, a collaborative research program between NASA Ames Research Center and three leading European research institutions: the University of Bordeaux, the von Karman Institute (VKI), and Ecole Polytechnique. Held from July 7th to August 1st, 2025, the NASA ARC MSV program brought together 42 researchers from Europe to work alongside NASA staff on 22 projects in entry systems modeling. The program was organized by Bruno Dias, Sergio Fraile-Izquierdo, and Jeremie Meurisse from Analytical Mechanics Associates, Inc., in collaboration with Marc Massot (Ecole Polytechnique), Jean Lachaud (University of Bordeaux), and Thierry Magin (VKI). The MSV program traces its origins to an initiative started by Nagi N. Mansour in 2018, with this 2025 edition representing a consolidation and expansion of that original vision. The projects were organized into six thematic groups: Porous Media, Numerical Methods, Plasma/Rarefied Methods, Experimental Reconstruction, Flow and Material Coupling Methods, and Transition and High-Speed Flows. Throughout the four-week program, participants presented their work in three public presentations (July 7th, July 21st, and August 1st), allowing for continuous feedback and discussion of their evolving research.

Plasmas↗

DOE OSTI2025

Mechanically Accelerated Depolymerization of Entangled Linear Polymer Melts

Mechanical forces can enhance the chemical depolymerization of synthetic polymers when shear flow accelerates chain scission. To quantify the extent of mechanically-accelerated scission, the effect of simple shear flow (duration and strength) with low Weissenberg and Deborah numbers was investigated by considering the impact of applied work in both simple shear and shear dominated mixed flows. Hydrogenated polyisoprene was chosen as a model linear, entangled system. The conditions (strain amplitude, frequency, and shearing time) necessary to increase chain scission were assessed in the rubbery melt. Shear flow accelerated chain scission at higher temperatures, suggesting an activated process. Isothermal scission versus work curves were superposed by applying shift factors a T,S , whose Arrhenius-like temperature dependence gave an apparent activation energy for chain scission of ~ 110 kJ/mol, which is likely a combination of the activation energy of viscosity and bond energy. This work provides a base for quantifying the impact of shear on depolymerization of polymer melts and highlight the connection between viscous dissipation and scission chemistry.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Strong Kitaev Interaction in BaCo 2⁢ (AsO 4 ) 2

The inelastic neutron scattering results and their analysis unequivocally point to a dominant Kitaev interaction in the honeycomb-lattice cobaltate BaCo 2 ⁢(AsO 4 ) 2 . Our anisotropic-exchange model closely describes all available neutron scattering data in the material’s field-polarized phase. Furthermore, the density-matrix renormalization group results for our model are in close accord with the unusual double-zigzag magnetic order and the low in-plane saturation field of BaCo 2 ⁢(AsO 4 ) 2 .

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2026

Rapid Coal-Ash Characterization using Geophysical Methods & Machine Learning

Coal combustion products (CCP) are challenging to delineate in heterogeneous field settings. Conventional methods (test pits, coring, and laboratory analyses) are labor-intensive, slow, invasive, and provide sparse spatial coverage. This study evaluates whether rapid non-invasive geophysical screening methods—induced polarization (IP), magnetic susceptibility, and nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) —combined with surface colorimetry (RGB_24), can discriminate CCP-soil mixtures and provide reliable estimates of CCP content. Laboratory measurements were collected on five CCP-soil mixtures (series) and modeled using (i) a linear baseline, (ii) a calibrated non-linear (power-mean) model, and (iii) a machine-learning (ML) Random Forest approach, with validation via leave-one-series-out and site-specific tests. Across the five series, individual signals—particularly IP and magnetic susceptibility—were strongly predictive of ash content but were consistently outperformed by combined models. The pooled calibrated non-linear and ML models captured the observed non-linearity and achieved high accuracy and precision, improving on linear fits. Colorimetry showed the weakest direct relationship with ash content for the tested samples but improved performance when included in multi-signal models. At pre-selected 3.5% decision threshold, calibrated and ML approaches yielded near-perfect classification (Matthews correlation coefficient ˜ 1), suggesting strong practical operability for field screening. Additionally, field-analog tests highlighted the role of endmembers—accuracy declined without access to end-member measurements but was largely recovered by collecting a minimal labeled pair for local recalibration. With end members, accuracy remained high. Globally trained models performed well on three operational unknowns; however, series-specific refits provided the most accurate predictions. Overall, these results highlight the potential of combining rapid geophysics and minimal local calibration for improved coal-ash delineation.

Peshtani, Klaudio↗

DOE OSTI2023

Design and Synthesis of Cubic K 3−2 x Ba x SbSe 4 Solid Electrolytes for K–O 2 Batteries

Developing K-ion conducting solid-state electrolytes (SSEs) plays a critical role in the safe implementation of potassium batteries. In this work, a chalcogenide-based potassium ion SSE is reported, K 3 SbSe 4 , which adopts a trigonal structure at room temperature. Single-crystal structural analysis reveals a trigonal-to-cubic phase transition at the low temperature of 50 °C, which is the lowest among similar compounds and thus provides easy access to the cubic phase. The substitution of barium for potassium in K 3 SbSe 4 leads to the creation of potassium vacancies, expansion of lattice parameters, and a transformation from a trigonal phase to a cubic phase. As a result, the maximum conductivity of K 3−2x Ba x SbSe 4 reaches around 0.1 mS cm −1 at 40 °C for K 2.2 Ba 0.4 SbSe 4 , which is over two orders of magnitude higher than that of undoped K 3 SbSe 4 . This novel SSE is successfully employed in a K–O 2 battery operating at room temperature where a polymer-laminated K 2.2 Ba 0.4 SbSe 4 pellet serves as a separator between the oxygen cathode and the potassium metal anode. Effective protection of the K metal anode against corrosion caused by O 2 is demonstrated.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Unconventional solitonic high-temperature superfluorescence from perovskites

Fast thermal dephasing limits macroscopic quantum phenomena to cryogenic conditions and hinders their use at ambient temperatures. For electronic excitations in condensed media, dephasing is mediated by thermal lattice motion. Therefore, taming the lattice influence is essential for creating collective electronic quantum states at high temperatures. Although there are occasional reports of high-T c quantum effects across different platforms, it is unclear which lattice characteristics and electron–lattice interactions lead to macroscopically coherent electronic states in solids. Here we studied intensity fluctuations in the macroscopic polarization during the emergence of superfluorescence in a lead halide perovskite and showed that spontaneously synchronized polaronic lattice oscillations accompany collective electronic dipole emission. We further developed an effective field model and theoretically confirmed that exciton–lattice interactions lead to a new electronically and structurally entangled coherent extended solitonic state beyond a critical polaron density. The analysis shows a phase transition with two processes happening in tandem: incoherent disordered polaronic lattice deformations establish an order, while macroscopic quantum coherence among excitons simultaneously emerges. Recombination of excitons in this state culminates in superfluorescence at high temperatures. Our study establishes fundamental connections between the transient superfluorescence process observed after the impulsive excitation of perovskites and general equilibrium phase transitions achieved by thermal cooling. By identifying various electron–lattice interactions in the perovskite structure and their respective role in creating collectively coherent electronic effects in solids, our work provides unprecedented insight into the design and development of new materials that exhibit high-temperature macroscopic quantum phenomena.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Quasicrystal stability and nucleation kinetics from density functional theory

The aperiodic order of quasicrystals bridges the amorphous and crystalline regime, so it has remained unclear whether quasicrystals are metastable or stable phases of matter. Density functional theory is often used to evaluate thermodynamic stability, but quasicrystals are long-range aperiodic and their energies cannot be calculated using conventional ab initio methods. Here, in this work, we perform first-principles calculations on quasicrystal nanoparticles of increasing size, from which we can directly extrapolate their bulk and surface energies. Using this technique, we determine with high confidence that the icosahedral quasicrystals ScZn 7.33 and YbCd 5.7 are ground-state phases, thus revealing that translational symmetry is not a necessary condition for the zero-temperature stability of inorganic solids. Although we found the ScZn 7.33 quasicrystal to be thermodynamically stable, we show on a mixed thermodynamic and kinetic phase diagram that its solidification from the melt is limited by nucleation, which illustrates why even stable materials may be kinetically challenging to grow. Our techniques broadly open the door to first-principles investigations into the structure–bonding–stability relationships of aperiodic materials.

density functional theory↗

NASA NTRS2010

Evaluation of Anomaly Detection Capability for Ground-Based Pre-Launch Shuttle Operations

This chapter will provide a thorough end-to-end description of the process for evaluation of three different data-driven algorithms for anomaly detection to select the best candidate for deployment as part of a suite of IVHM (Integrated Vehicle Health Management) technologies. These algorithms were deemed to be sufficiently mature enough to be considered viable candidates for deployment in support of the maiden launch of Ares I-X, the successor to the Space Shuttle for NASA's Constellation program. Data-driven algorithms are just one of three different types being deployed [3],[5]. The other two types of algorithms being deployed include a "rule-based" expert system, and a "model-based" system. Within these two categories, the deployable candidates have already been selected based upon qualitative factors such as flight heritage. For the rile-based system, SHINE (Spacecraft High-speed Inference Engine) has been selected for deployment, which is a component of BEAM (Beacon-based Exception Analysis for Multimissions) [4], a patented technology developed at NASA's JPL (Jet Propulsion Laboratory) and serves to aid in the management and identification of operational modes. For the "model-based" system, a commercially available package developed by QSI (Qualtech Systems, Inc.), TEAMS (Testability Engineering and Maintenance System) [1] has been selected for deployment to aid in diagnosis. In the context of this particular deployment, distinctions among the use of the terms "data-driven," "rule-based," and "model-based," call found in [5]. Although there are three different categories of algorithms that have been selected for deployment, our main focus in this chapter will be on the evaluation of three candidates for data-driven anomaly detection. These algorithms will be evaluated upon their capability for robustly detecting incipient faults or failures in the ground-based phase of pre-launch space shuttle operations, rather than based oil heritage as performed in previous studies [5]. Robust detection will allow for the achievement of pre-specified minimum false alarm and/or missed detection rates in the selection of alert thresholds. All algorithms will also be optimized with respect to all of these same criteria. Our study relies upon the use of Shuttle data to act as was a proxy for and in preparation for application to Ares I-X data, which uses a very similar hardware platform for the subsystems that are being targeted (TVC - Thrust Vector Control subsystem for the SRB (Solid Rocket Booster)).

False Alarms↗