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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

OPERATIONAL TECHNOLOGY BEHAVIORAL ANALYTICS (OTBA) – A DATA-CENTRIC APPROACH FOR REDUCING CYBERSECURITY RISK

This paper provides a summary of the methodology, findings, lessons learned, and insights from an investigation into the feasibility of the Operational Technology Behavioral Analytics (OTBA) cybersecurity approach. The concept was evaluated with data from the National Carbon Capture Center (NCCC) – a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) funded facility that is managed and operated by Southern Company at Alabama Power’s E. C. Gaston generating power plant in Wilsonville, Alabama. Appropriate data sources for the post-combustion carbon capture system were identified. Infrastructure was deployed to monitor, capture and archive data for the system. Critical parameters for each subsystem were identified and analyzed. Machine-learning algorithms were used to establish and characterize normal operations and subsequently identify anomalies. This effort yielded valuable insights and formed the basis of a data-centric strategy for detecting cyber-attacks along with a coordinated response philosophy. A significant takeaway is that the OTBA cybersecurity approach is quite portable; it can be applied to other critical infrastructure beyond fossil power generation.

Black, Clifton↗
DOE OSTI2022

Operational Technology Behavioral Analytics (OTBA) (Final Technical Report DE-FE0031640)

This final report provides a summary of the methodology, findings, lessons learned, and insights from an investigation into the feasibility of the Operational Technology Behavioral Analytics (OTBA) cybersecurity approach. The concept was evaluated with data from the National Carbon Capture Center (NCCC) – a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) funded facility that is managed and operated by Southern Company Services, Inc. at Alabama Power Company’s E. C. Gaston generating power plant in Wilsonville, Alabama. Appropriate data sources for the post-combustion carbon capture system were identified. Infrastructure was deployed to monitor, capture and archive data for the system. Critical parameters for each subsystem were identified and analyzed. Machine-learning algorithms were used to establish and characterize normal operations and subsequently identify anomalies. This effort yielded valuable insights and formed the basis of a data-centric strategy for detecting cyber-attacks along with a coordinated response philosophy. A significant takeaway is that the OTBA cybersecurity approach is quite portable; it can be applied to other critical infrastructure beyond fossil power generation.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2011

Atypical Behavior Identification in Large Scale Network Traffic

Cyber analysts are faced with the daunting challenge of identifying exploits and threats within potentially billions of daily records of network traffic. Enterprise-wide cyber traffic involves hundreds of millions of distinct IP addresses and results in data sets ranging from terabytes to petabytes of raw data. Creating behavioral models and identifying trends based on those models requires data intensive architectures and techniques that can scale as data volume increases. Analysts need scalable visualization methods that foster interactive exploration of data and enable identification of behavioral anomalies. Developers must carefully consider application design, storage, processing, and display to provide usability and interactivity with large-scale data. We present an application that highlights atypical behavior in enterprise network flow records. This is accomplished by utilizing data intensive architectures to store the data, aggregation techniques to optimize data access, statistical techniques to characterize behavior, and a visual analytic environment to render the behavioral trends, highlight atypical activity, and allow for exploration.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Resilient information and inference networks under mixed-trust sensing

With ubiquitous digitization, sensing, and computational intelligence deployed in increasingly more and broader domains, including critical infrastructure, potentially misleading and destabilizing effects of multimodal anomalies and adversarial behavior are growing in importance. Here, we develop randomized and reinforcement learning-based strategies for strategically recruiting and utilizing deployed (and, thus, vulnerable and potentially faulty and/or compromised) nodes from information and inference networks, while defending against adversaries that attempt to misguide assessments of inferred variables. Recognizing that, besides communication and other costs, sampling from any observable node can either provide true data or dangerously expose our inference to misinformation (without being easily distinguishable what actually happens), the proposed strategies proceed by progressively recruiting nodes and cautiously scaling their information contribution based on assumed, or, in our reinforcement learning approach, intelligently weighed trustworthiness, with the learning approach also considering network-wide, threat-inclusive risk/value tradeoffs. While avoiding the hardware, communication, analytical and computational burden of explicit redundancy, the proposed defensive schemes enable on-the-fly assessments of underlying processes, and system-wide situational awareness with demonstrable resilience against adversarial activities.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2019

GPLADD: Quantifying Trust in Government and Commercial Systems A Game-Theoretic Approach

Trust in a microelectronics-based system can be characterized as the level of confidence that a system is free of subversive alterations made during system development, or that the development process of a system has not been manipulated by a malicious adversary. Trust in systems has become an increasing concern over the past decade. This report introduces a novel game-theoretic framework, called GPLADD (Graph-based Probabilistic Learning Attacker and Dynamic Defender), for analyzing and quantifying system trustworthiness at the end of the development process, through the analysis of risk of development-time system manipulation. GPLADD represents attacks and attacker-defender contests over time. Here, time is an explicit constraint and allows incorporating the informational asymmetries between the attacker and defender into analysis. GPLADD includes an explicit representation of attack steps via multi-step attack graphs, attacker and defender strategies, and player actions at different times. GPLADD allows quantifying the attack success probability over time and the attacker and defender costs based on their capabilities and strategies. This ability to quantify different attacks provides an input for evaluation of trust in the development process. We demonstrate GPLADD on an example attack and its variants. We develop a method for representing success probability for arbitrary attacks and derive an explicit analytic characterization of success probability for a specific attack. We present a numeric Monte Carlo study of a small set of attacks, quantify attack success probabilities, attacker and defender costs, and illustrate the options the defender has for limiting the attack success and improving trust in the development process.

37 attack↗
DOE OSTI2014

SIGNATURES OF ILLICIT NUCLEAR PROCUREMENT NETWORKS: AN OVERVIEW OF PRELIMINARY APPROACHES AND RESULTS

The illicit trafficking of strategic nuclear commodities (defined here as the goods needed for a covert nuclear program excluding special nuclear materials) poses a significant challenge to the international nuclear nonproliferation community. Export control regulations, both domestically and internationally, seek to inhibit the spread of strategic nuclear commodities by restricting their sale to parties that may use them for nefarious purposes. However, export controls alone are not sufficient for preventing the illicit transfer of strategic nuclear goods. There are two major pitfalls to relying solely on export control regulations for the deterrence of proliferation of strategic goods. First, export control enforcement today relies heavily on the honesty and willingness of participants to adhere to the legal framework already in place. Secondly, current practices focus on the evaluation of single records which allow for the necessary goods to be purchased separately and hidden within the thousands of legitimate commerce transactions that occur each day, disregarding strategic information regarding several purchases. Our research presents two preliminary data-centric approaches for investigating procurement networks of strategic nuclear commodities. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) has been putting significant effort into nonproliferation activities as an institution, both in terms of the classical nuclear material focused approach and in the examination of other strategic goods necessary to implement a nuclear program. In particular, the PNNL Signature Discovery Initiative (SDI) has codified several scientific methodologies for the detection, characterization, and prediction of signatures that are indicative of a phenomenon of interest. The methodologies and tools developed under SDI have already been applied successfully to problems in bio-forensics, cyber security and power grid balancing efforts and they have now made the nonproliferation of strategic goods into a challenge problem for testing their methodology and tools. As a first step towards the detection and characterization of illicit procurement networks, our research examines procurement networks as defined by a system of entities (people or companies) that enter into transactions of specific items with one another. Once we have defined such networks, we are interested in answering questions about the behavior and characterization of such networks. The questions we wish to answer regarding procurement networks are, first, “Can we detect networks within large, noisy datasets?” and second, “To what extent can we compare multiple networks and identify their similarities?” As procurement networks can be naturally viewed as a graph, we have employed several graph analytic tools to aid in these tasks. In particular, Graphscape, an SDI tool, uses a novel method to approximate edit distance, a graph distance measure based on the number of changes needed to transform one graph into another, in order to measure how similar two given graphs are to each other. Given a set of graphs where vertices represent companies and edges represent a shipment from company A to company B, we can calculate an all-for-all comparison of graphs. In this way, we are able to determine which graphs are most similar, and which require more changes to transform one into the other. The set of graphs to be compared can be further specialized to provide more insight, e.g., using different time periods to explore events in a company life cycle.

graph analysis↗
DOE OSTI2025

Edge ML for CAN bus intrusion detection in AVs

Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) are revolutionizing transportation, but their reliance on interconnected cyber-physical systems exposes them to unprecedented cybersecurity risks. This study addresses the critical challenge of detecting real-time cyber intrusions in self-driving vehicles by leveraging a dataset from the Udacity self-driving car project. We simulate four high-impact attack vectors, Denial of Service (DoS), spoofing, replay, and fuzzy attacks, by injecting noise into spatial features (e.g., bounding box coordinates) to replicate adversarial scenarios. We develop and evaluate two lightweight neural network architectures (NN-1 and NN-2) alongside a logistic regression baseline (LG-1) for intrusion detection. The models achieve exceptional performance, with NN-2 attaining an AUC score of 93.15% and 93.15% accuracy, demonstrating their suitability for edge deployment in AV environments. Through explainable AI techniques, we uncover unique forensic fingerprints of each attack type, such as spatial corruption in fuzzy attacks and temporal anomalies in replay attacks, offering actionable insights for feature engineering and proactive defense. Visual analytics, including confusion matrices, ROC curves, and feature importance plots, validate the models' robustness and interpretability. This research sets a new benchmark for AV cybersecurity, delivering a scalable, field-ready toolkit for Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) and policymakers. By aligning intrusion fingerprints with SAE J3061 automotive security standards, we provide a pathway for integrating machine learning into safety-critical AV systems. Our findings underscore the urgent need for security-by-design AI, ensuring that AVs not only drive autonomously but also defend autonomously. This work bridges the gap between theoretical cybersecurity and life-preserving engineering, offering a leap toward safer, more secure autonomous transportation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2017

Human Factors in Streaming Data Analysis: Challenges and Opportunities for Information Visualization: Human Factors in Streaming Data Analysis

State-of-the-art visual analytics models and frameworks mostly assume a static snapshot of the data, while in many cases it is a stream with constant updates and changes. Exploration of streaming data poses unique challenges as machine-level computations and abstractions need to be synchronized with the visual representation of the data and the temporally evolving human insights. In the visual analytics literature, we lack a thorough characterization of streaming data and analysis of the challenges associated with task abstraction, visualization design, and adaptation of the role of human-in-the-loop for exploration of data streams. We aim to fill this gap by conducting a survey of the state-of-the-art in visual analytics of streaming data for systematically describing the contributions and shortcomings of current techniques and analyzing the research gaps that need to be addressed in the future. Our contributions are: i) problem characterization for identifying challenges that are unique to streaming data analysis tasks, ii) a survey and analysis of the state-of-the-art in streaming data visualization research with a focus on the visualization design space for dynamic data and the role of the human-in-the-loop, and iii) reflections on the design-trade-offs for streaming visual analytics techniques and their practical applicability in real-world application scenarios.

streaming data↗
DOE OSTI2026

Enhanced Preparation for Intelligent Cybermanufacturing Systems (EPICS)

Opportunities exist for realizing transformative advances in productivity and reductions in energy footprint through ubiquitous sensing in manufacturing environments. Enhanced Preparation for Intelligent Cybermanufacturing Systems (EPICS) is a 21-month (4 academic semesters, plus one summer) experience for graduate students that focuses on scaling the knowledge, understanding and leadership skills in the cyber manufacturing area. Masters students (8/year, 32 total) complete 2-year projects on industrially-driven project topics, rotating to internships in summer semester to work on scoping and implementation at project partners. Students complete academic training in embedded systems, process modeling, data science, and cloud-based systems design. Their projects are targeted toward sensor retrofit, process monitoring, root cause analysis, and sensor fusion.

Advanced Manufacturing↗
DOE OSTI2015

Virtual machine-based simulation platform for mobile ad-hoc network-based cyber infrastructure

In modeling and simulating complex systems such as mobile ad-hoc networks (MANETs) in de-fense communications, it is a major challenge to reconcile multiple important considerations: the rapidity of unavoidable changes to the software (network layers and applications), the difficulty of modeling the critical, implementation-dependent behavioral effects, the need to sustain larger scale scenarios, and the desire for faster simulations. Here we present our approach in success-fully reconciling them using a virtual time-synchronized virtual machine(VM)-based parallel ex-ecution framework that accurately lifts both the devices as well as the network communications to a virtual time plane while retaining full fidelity. At the core of our framework is a scheduling engine that operates at the level of a hypervisor scheduler, offering a unique ability to execute multi-core guest nodes over multi-core host nodes in an accurate, virtual time-synchronized manner. In contrast to other related approaches that suffer from either speed or accuracy issues, our framework provides MANET node-wise scalability, high fidelity of software behaviors, and time-ordering accuracy. The design and development of this framework is presented, and an ac-tual implementation based on the widely used Xen hypervisor system is described. Benchmarks with synthetic and actual applications are used to identify the benefits of our approach. The time inaccuracy of traditional emulation methods is demonstrated, in comparison with the accurate execution of our framework verified by theoretically correct results expected from analytical models of the same scenarios. In the largest high fidelity tests, we are able to perform virtual time-synchronized simulation of 64-node VM-based full-stack, actual software behaviors of MANETs containing a mix of static and mobile (unmanned airborne vehicle) nodes, hosted on a 32-core host, with full fidelity of unmodified ad-hoc routing protocols, unmodified application executables, and user-controllable physical layer effects including inter-device wireless signal strength, reachability, and connectivity.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Enhancing Early Systems R&D Capabilities with Systems —Theoretic Process Analysis

Systems engineering today faces a wide array of challenges, ranging from new operational environments to disruptive technological — necessitating approaches to improve research and development (R&D) efforts. Yet, emphasizing the Aristotelian argument that the “whole is greater than the sum of its parts” seems to offer a conceptual foundation creating new R&D solutions. Invoking systems theoretic concepts of emergence and hierarchy and analytic characteristics of traceability, rigor, and comprehensiveness is potentially beneficial for guiding R&D strategy and development to bridge the gap between theoretical problem spaces and engineering-based solutions. In response, this article describes systems–theoretic process analysis (STPA) as an example of one such approach to aid in early-systems R&D discussions. STPA—a ‘top-down’ process that abstracts real complex system operations into hierarchical control structures, functional control loops, and control actions—uses control loop logic to analyze how control actions (designed for desired system behaviors) may become violated and drive the complex system toward states of higher risk. By analyzing how needed controls are not provided (or out of sequence or stopped too soon) and unneeded controls are provided (or engaged too long), STPA can help early-system R&D discussions by exploring how requirements and desired actions interact to either mitigate or potentially increase states of risk that can lead to unacceptable losses. This article will demonstrate STPA's benefit for early-system R&D strategy and development discussion by describing such diverse use cases as cyber security, nuclear fuel transportation, and US electric grid performance. Together, the traceability, rigor, and comprehensiveness of STPA serve as useful tools for improving R&D strategy and development discussions. In conclusion, leveraging STPA as well as related systems engineering techniques can be helpful in early R&D planning and strategy development to better triangulate deeper theoretical meaning or evaluate empirical results to better inform systems engineering solutions.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2015

Framework for Identifying Cybersecurity Risks in Manufacturing

Increasing connectivity, use of digital computation, and off-site data storage provide potential for dramatic improvements in manufacturing productivity, quality, and cost. However, there are also risks associated with the increased volume and pervasiveness of data that are generated and potentially accessible to competitors or adversaries. Enterprises have experienced cyber attacks that exfiltrate confidential and/or proprietary data, alter information to cause an unexpected or unwanted effect, and destroy capital assets. Manufacturers need tools to incorporate these risks into their existing risk management processes. This article establishes a framework that considers the data flows within a manufacturing enterprise and throughout its supply chain. The framework provides several mechanisms for identifying generic and manufacturing-specific vulnerabilities and is illustrated with details pertinent to an automotive manufacturer. Finally, in addition to providing manufacturers with insights into their potential data risks, this framework addresses an outcome identified by the NIST Cybersecurity Framework.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2014

Where Big Data and Prediction Meet

Our ability to assemble and analyze massive data sets, often referred to under the title of “big data”, is an increasingly important tool for shaping national policy. This in turn has introduced issues from privacy concerns to cyber security. But as IBM’s John Kelly emphasized in the last Innovation, making sense of the vast arrays of data will require radically new computing tools. In the past, technologies and tools for analysis of big data were viewed as quite different from the traditional realm of high performance computing (HPC) with its huge models of phenomena such as global climate or supporting the nuclear test moratorium. Looking ahead, this will change with very positive benefits for both worlds. Societal issues such as global security, economic planning and genetic analysis demand increased understanding that goes beyond existing data analysis and reduction. The modeling world often produces simulations that are complex compositions of mathematical models and experimental data. This has resulted in outstanding successes such as the annual assessment of the state of the US nuclear weapons stockpile without underground nuclear testing. Ironically, while there were historically many test conducted, this body of data provides only modest insight into the underlying physics of the system. A great deal of emphasis was thus placed on the level of confidence we can develop for the predictions. As data analytics and simulation come together, there is a growing need to assess the confidence levels in both data being gathered and the complex models used to make predictions. An example of this is assuring the security or optimizing the performance of critical infrastructure systems such as the power grid. If one wants to understand the vulnerabilities of the system or impacts of predicted threats, full scales tests of the grid against threat scenarios are unlikely. Preventive measures would need to be predicated on well-defined margins of confidence in order to take mitigating actions that could have wide ranging impacts. There is a rich opportunity for interaction and exchange between the HPC simulation and data analytics communities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

First Plant Cell Atlas symposium report

The Plant Cell Atlas (PCA) community hosted a virtual symposium on December 9 and 10, 2021 on single cell and spatial omics technologies. The conference gathered almost 500 academic, industry, and government leaders to identify the needs and directions of the PCA community and to explore how establishing a data synthesis center would address these needs and accelerate progress. This report details the presentations and discussions focused on the possibility of a data synthesis center for a PCA and the expected impacts of such a center on advancing science and technology globally. Community discussions focused on topics such as data analysis tools and annotation standards; computational expertise and cyber-infrastructure; modes of community organization and engagement; methods for ensuring a broad reach in the PCA community; recruitment, training, and nurturing of new talent; and the overall impact of the PCA initiative. These targeted discussions facilitated dialogue among the participants to gauge whether PCA might be a vehicle for formulating a data synthesis center. The conversations also explored how online tools can be leveraged to help broaden the reach of the PCA (i.e., online contests, virtual networking, and social media stakeholder engagement) and decrease costs of conducting research (e.g., virtual REU opportunities). Major recommendations for the future of the PCA included establishing standards, creating dashboards for easy and intuitive access to data, and engaging with a broad community of stakeholders. The discussions also identified the following as being essential to the PCA's success: identifying homologous cell-type markers and their biocuration, publishing datasets and computational pipelines, utilizing online tools for communication (such as Slack), and user-friendly data visualization and data sharing. In conclusion, the development of a data synthesis center will help the PCA community achieve these goals by providing a centralized repository for existing and new data, a platform for sharing tools, and new analytical approaches through collaborative, multidisciplinary efforts. A data synthesis center will help the PCA reach milestones, such as community-supported data evaluation metrics, accelerating plant research necessary for human and environmental health.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Data-Driven Democratized Control Architecture for Regional Transmission Operators

As probably the most complicated and critical infrastructure system, U.S. power grids become increasingly vulnerable to extreme events such as cyber-attacks and severe weather, as well as higher DER penetrations and growing information mismatch among system operators, utilities (transmission or generation owners), and end-users. This paper proposes a data-driven democratized control architecture considering two democratization pathways to assist transmission system operators, with a targeted use case of developing online proactive islanding strategies. Detailed discussions on load capability profiling at transmission buses and disaggregation of DER generations are provided and illustrated with real-world utility data. By Combining network and operational constraints, transmission system operators can be equipped with new tools built on top of this architecture, to derive accurate, proactive, and strategic islanding decisions to incorporate the wide range of dynamic portfolios and needs when facing extreme events or unseen grid contingencies.

Power System Reliability, Islanding, Democratized ↗
DOE OSTI2026

Artificial Intelligence in Nuclear Safeguards; Evaluating Safeguards and Security Risks and Benefits for Advanced and Small Modular Reactor Deployments

Rapidly growing interest in advanced and small modular reactor (A/SMR) technologies presents challenges as well as opportunities for implementing international safeguards and security. A/SMR deployments are expected to be more numerous, more geographically dispersed, and more varied in their designs, placing new demands on the data systems and analytical tools used to support oversight (Alberti et al., 2023; Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission et al., 2024). Because of this variability, the importance and reliance on data systems for A/SMR deployments is expected to be higher than for previous reactor generations. Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (AI/ML) offer potential capabilities to address the high variability inherent in A/SMR technology. The beneficiaries of AI-assisted tools include facility operators, government regulators, IAEA inspectors, and A/SMR vendors. This report analyzes how AI/ML-assisted technologies can strengthen the implementation of IAEA safeguards and security measures. It also identifies AI-assisted tools to strengthen operator, facility, and regulator knowledge management practices and examines the potential risks AI/ML-based tools may introduce to IAEA safeguards and security efforts. It concludes with a set of hypothetical, standards-style requirements for AI/ML systems used in safeguards contexts, grounded in an inspector-centric view of system verification. Despite the potential benefits of AI/ML systems, understanding potential intentional and unintentional failure modes is critical for ensuring adequate protection of nuclear materials and facilities. Unique features of A/SMRs including sealed cores, remote and novel paradigms of operation, off-site reactor fabrication, novel fuel forms, and varied refueling requirements, introduce challenges for traditional safeguards technological approaches (Pensado et al., 2024; Federation of American Scientists, 2025). AI/ML systems deployed to address these challenges may introduce new risks requiring systematic evaluation rooted in both AI-specific risk frameworks, such as the NIST AI Risk Management Framework (NIST AI RMF), and established cyber risk management standards such as NIST SP 800-30 (National Institute of Standards and Technology [NIST], 2023; NIST, 2012).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Securing the Modern Grid: Federal Investments, Digitization, and Supply Chain Strategy

Across the United States (U.S.) grid expansion and modernization is underway, paving the way for accelerated load growth and intelligent resource management. Digitization of the grid is supported by several state and federal programs, providing support for utilities installing advanced metering infrastructure (AMI), AI-powered analytics systems, battery energy storage systems (BESS), and distributed energy resource management systems (DERMS) to transform the grid from a one-way power delivery system into an intelligent, responsive network that will enable faster load growth and power expansion of data centers for advanced artificial intelligence (AI) applications. The digital transformation of America's grid presents opportunity for increased efficiency and resiliency but also introduces new digital risks that require careful management. Digital equipment often contains several vulnerabilities such as unencrypted communication protocols, and persistent remote access capabilities that could be exploited to manipulate device settings, coordinate service disruptions, or inject false data into grid operations. These digital risks become particularly important as the grid must rapidly scale to support AI-driven data centers, which the administration has identified as essential for maintaining U.S. technological leadership and economic competitiveness. These vulnerabilities are compounded by supply chain realities: Chinese manufacturers currently produce 70-90% of essential grid components including inverters, batteries, and control systems, with the U.S. lacking domestic manufacturing capacity for critical assets like extra-high voltage transformers. Recent federal legislation has established Foreign Entity of Concern (FEOC) restrictions to address these risks, requiring projects to achieve escalating thresholds of non-FEOC content to receive tax credits while utilities work to expand sourcing channels for their supply chains and strengthen security measures. These restrictions arrive precisely when utilities face unprecedented electricity demand growth driven by the rapid growth in data centers, creating a considerable challenge: rapidly expanding infrastructure while navigating complex compliance requirements while lacking viable alternatives for many critical components. Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and its partners have developed practical approaches to help utilities navigate these intersecting challenges as they leverage federal investment to strengthen and grow the grid. These solutions include Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) principles that build resilience directly into systems, the Cirrus tool for secure cloud migration, and enhanced procurement guidance that embeds security requirements throughout equipment lifecycles. Federal initiatives, such as the Technical Assistance for Digital Assurance (TADA) project, provide direct support to utilities implementing these approaches while facilitating knowledge sharing across the industry. While these tools and frameworks cannot eliminate all risks inherent in foreign supply chain dependencies, they offer pragmatic pathways for strengthening security posture without sacrificing the deployment momentum essential to meeting surging electricity demand. Ultimately, securing America's digital energy infrastructure demands dedicated coordination across multiple fronts: building domestic supply chains, implementing robust digital assurance practices, and maintaining the aggressive modernization timeline necessary for reliability, resilience, and energy independence.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Filling the Gaps: A Bayesian Mixture Model for Imputing Missing Soil Water Content Data

ABSTRACT Soil water content (SWC) data are central to evaluating how soil moisture varies over time and space and influences critical plant and ecosystem functions, especially in water‐limited drylands. However, sensors that record SWC at high frequencies often malfunction, leading to incomplete timeseries and limiting our understanding of dryland ecosystem dynamics. We developed an analytical approach to impute missing SWC data, which we tested at six eddy flux tower sites along an elevation gradient in the southwestern United States. We impute missing data as a mixture of linearly interpolated SWC between the observed endpoints of a missing data gap and SWC simulated by an ecosystem water balance model (SOILWAT2). Within a Bayesian framework, we allowed the relative utility (mixture weight) of each component (linearly interpolated vs. SOILWAT2) to vary by depth, site and gap characteristics. We explored “fixed” weights versus “dynamic” weights that vary as a function of cumulative precipitation, average temperature, and time since the start of the gap. Both models estimated missing SWC data well ( R 2 = 0.70–0.88 vs. 0.75–0.91 for fixed vs. dynamic weights, respectively), but the utility of linearly interpolated versus SOILWAT2 values depended on site and depth. SOILWAT2 was more useful for more arid sites, shallower depths, longer and warmer gaps and gaps that received greater precipitation. Overall, the mixture model reliably gap‐fills SWC, while lending insight into processes governing SWC dynamics. This approach to impute missing data could be adapted to accommodate more than two mixture components and other types of environmental timeseries.

Ogle, Kiona [School of Informatics, Computing, and↗