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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2016

Limitations of Reliability for Long-Endurance Human Spaceflight

Long-endurance human spaceflight - such as missions to Mars or its moons - will present a never-before-seen maintenance logistics challenge. Crews will be in space for longer and be farther way from Earth than ever before. Resupply and abort options will be heavily constrained, and will have timescales much longer than current and past experience. Spare parts and/or redundant systems will have to be included to reduce risk. However, the high cost of transportation means that this risk reduction must be achieved while also minimizing mass. The concept of increasing system and component reliability is commonly discussed as a means to reduce risk and mass by reducing the probability that components will fail during a mission. While increased reliability can reduce maintenance logistics mass requirements, the rate of mass reduction decreases over time. In addition, reliability growth requires increased test time and cost. This paper assesses trends in test time requirements, cost, and maintenance logistics mass savings as a function of increase in Mean Time Between Failures (MTBF) for some or all of the components in a system. In general, reliability growth results in superlinear growth in test time requirements, exponential growth in cost, and sublinear benefits (in terms of logistics mass saved). These trends indicate that it is unlikely that reliability growth alone will be a cost-effective approach to maintenance logistics mass reduction and risk mitigation for long-endurance missions. This paper discusses these trends as well as other options to reduce logistics mass such as direct reduction of part mass, commonality, or In-Space Manufacturing (ISM). Overall, it is likely that some combination of all available options - including reliability growth - will be required to reduce mass and mitigate risk for future deep space missions.

Owens, Andrew C.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Multilateral Research Opportunities in Ground Analogs

The global economy forces many nations to consider their national investments and make difficult decisions regarding their investment in future exploration. International collaboration provides an opportunity to leverage other nations' investments to meet common goals. The Humans In Space Community shares a common goal to enable safe, reliable, and productive human space exploration within and beyond Low Earth Orbit. Meeting this goal requires efficient use of limited resources and International capabilities. The International Space Station (ISS) is our primary platform to conduct microgravity research targeted at reducing human health and performance risks for exploration missions. Access to ISS resources, however, is becoming more and more constrained and will only be available through 2020 or 2024. NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) is actively pursuing methods to effectively utilize the ISS and appropriate ground analogs to understand and mitigate human health and performance risks prior to embarking on human exploration of deep space destinations. HRP developed a plan to use ground analogs of increasing fidelity to address questions related to exploration missions and is inviting International participation in these planned campaigns. Using established working groups and multilateral panels, the HRP is working with multiple Space Agencies to invite International participation in a series of 30- day missions that HRP will conduct in the US owned and operated Human Exploration Research Analog (HERA) during 2016. In addition, the HRP is negotiating access to Antarctic stations (both US and non-US), the German :envihab and Russian NEK facilities. These facilities provide unique capabilities to address critical research questions requiring longer duration simulation or isolation. We are negotiating release of international research opportunities to ensure a multilateral approach to future analog research campaigns, hoping to begin multilateral campaigns in the latter facilities by 2017. Collaborative use of analog facilities and shared investment in the development of spaceflight countermeasures through multilateral campaigns or missions that leverage the global scientific community will focus high quality research and provide sufficient power to accelerate the development of countermeasures and drive sound recommendations for exploration missions. This panel will provide an overview of efforts to encourage and facilitate multilateral collaboration in analog missions or campaigns and describe the facilities currently under consideration to reach the common goal of enabling safe, reliable, and productive human space exploration.

Corbin, Barbara J.↗
NASA NTRS2006

What Happened, and Why: Toward an Understanding of Human Error Based on Automated Analyses of Incident Reports

The objective of the Aviation System Monitoring and Modeling project of NASA's Aviation Safety and Security Program was to develop technologies to enable proactive management of safety risk, which entails identifying the precursor events and conditions that foreshadow most accidents. Information about what happened can be extracted from quantitative data sources, but the experiential account of the incident reporter is the best available source of information about why an incident happened. In Volume I, the concept of the Scenario was introduced as a pragmatic guide for identifying similarities of what happened based on the objective parameters that define the Context and the Outcome of a Scenario. In this Volume II, that study continues into the analyses of the free narratives to gain understanding as to why the incident occurred from the reporter s perspective. While this is just the first experiment, the results of our approach are encouraging and indicate that it will be possible to design an automated analysis process guided by the structure of the Scenario that can achieve the level of consistency and reliability of human analysis of narrative reports.

Ferryman, Thomas A.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Revisiting the Soyuz-1 Parachute Failure in the Context of Safety in the Modern Era

The Soyuz‑1 accident remains one of the most consequential parachute related failures in human spaceflight history and provides enduring lessons for modern Entry, Descent, and Landing (EDL) system design. Occurring during the height of the Cold War and the Space Race, the mission unfolded under extraordinary political and schedule pressure as the Soviet Union sought to maintain its early leadership in space achievements following the death of chief designer Sergei Korolev. Despite unresolved propulsion, electrical, and parachute system deficiencies, Soyuz‑1 proceeded to launch and immediately encountered critical inflight anomalies, including a failed solar panel deployment, attitude control issues, and communication dropouts. Upon reentry, a malfunction in the parachute system, driven by a primary main canopy that failed to deploy, and subsequent entanglement of the reserve main canopy with the primary drogue parachute, resulted in insufficient deceleration and the fatal crash of cosmonaut Vladimir Komarov. Subsequent investigations revealed deep rooted cultural and organizational issues within the Soviet space program, including inadequate testing, suppression of dissent, undocumented last minute design changes, and the absence of integrated parachute system verification. More than 200 design flaws were identified after the accident, and firsthand accounts, including those from Yuri Gagarin, highlighted widespread concern prior to launch. Over time, the Soviet program implemented substantial reforms: systematic design corrections, rigorous process documentation, and an extensive series of drop tests that ultimately transformed the Soyuz system into one of the world’s most reliable human-rated return vehicles. This paper examines the technical architecture of the Soyuz‑1 parachute system, reconstructs the likely deployment sequence and failure mechanism, and analyzes the cultural contributors that shaped the accident. The study draws parallels to modern spacecraft parachute development, emphasizing the critical importance of integrated system testing, transparent engineering culture, and continuous hardware surveillance. These lessons remain directly relevant to today’s NASA and Commercial Crew Programs (CCP), where the Government continues to refine its understanding of aggregate risk and strengthen overall astronaut safety in the face of increasingly complex parachute systems.

Aaron L Morris↗
DOE OSTI2022

Analysis of human performance differences between students and operators when using the Rancor Microworld simulator

Here, from within the umbrella of the Simplified Human Error Experimental Program (SHEEP) framework, this paper analyzes human performance differences between professional and student operators when using a simplified simulator (i.e., Rancor Microworld). This paper represents a crucial step in understanding the fidelity of the simplified simulators and student operators within the SHEEP study. This paper explores a randomized factorial experimental design that features two independent variables: participant type and event class. Six human performance measurements are considered in the experiment. The experiment is conducted using 20 professional reactor operators employed at actual nuclear power plants (NPPs), along with 20 trained students. The experimental data are analyzed via statistical analysis methods. Finally, this paper examines the differences in human performance between actual operators and students when using Rancor Microworld.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Mapping brucellosis risk in Kenya and its implications for control strategies in sub-Saharan Africa

In Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), effective brucellosis control is limited, in part, by the lack of long-term commitments by governments to control the disease and the absence of reliable national human and livestock population-based data to inform policies. Therefore, we conducted a study to establish the national prevalence and develop a risk map for Brucella spp. in cattle to contribute to plans to eliminate the disease in Kenya by the year 2040. We randomly generated 268 geolocations and distributed them across Kenya, proportionate to the area of each of the five agroecological zones and the associated cattle population. Cattle herds closest to each selected geolocation were identified for sampling. Up to 25 cattle were sampled per geolocation and a semi-structured questionnaire was administered to their owners. We tested 6,593 cattle samples for Brucella immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies using an Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). We assessed potential risk factors and performed spatial analyses and prevalence mapping using approximate Bayesian inference implemented via the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) method. The national Brucella spp. prevalence was 6.8% (95% CI: 6.2–7.4%). Exposure levels varied significantly between agro-ecological zones, with a high of 8.5% in the very arid zone with the lowest agricultural potential relative to a low of 0.0% in the agro-alpine zone with the highest agricultural potential. Additionally, seroprevalence increased with herd size, and the odds of seropositivity were significantly higher for females and adult animals than for males or calves. Similarly, animals with a history of abortion, or with multiple reproductive syndromes had higher seropositivity than those without. At the herd level, the risk of Brucella spp. transmission was higher in larger herds, and herds with a history of reproductive problems such as abortion, giving birth to weak calves, or having swollen testes. Geographic localities with high Brucella seroprevalence occurred in northern, eastern, and southern regions of Kenya all primarily characterized by semi-arid or arid agro-ecological zones dominated by livestock pastoralism interspersed with vast areas with mixed livestock-wildlife systems. The large spatial extent of our survey provides compelling evidence for the widespread geographical distribution of brucellosis risk across Kenya in a manner easily understandable for policymakers. Our findings can provide a basis for risk-stratified pilot studies aiming to investigate the cost-effectiveness and efficacy of singular and combined preventive intervention strategies that seek to inform Kenya’s Brucellosis Control Policy.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2005

In-situ Resources In Space

This tutorial is a primer on the motivational and materials science basis for utilizing space resources to lower the cost and increase the safety and reliability of human systems beyond Earth's orbit. Past research in materials processing in orbit will be briefly reviewed to emphasize the challenges and advantages inherent in processing materials in space. Data on resource availability from human Lunar and robotic/sensor missions beyond the Moon will be overviewed for resource relevance to human exploration and development of space. Specific scenarios such as propellant production on the Moon and Mars, and lunar photovoltaic power production from in-situ materials will be discussed in relation to exploration and commercialization of space. A conclusion will cover some of the visionary proposals for the use of space resources to extend human society and prosperity beyond Earth.

Curreri, Peter A.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Space Launch System (SLS) Safety, Mission Assurance, and Risk Mitigation

SLS Driving Objectives: I. Safe: a) Human-rated to provide safe and reliable systems for human missions. b) Protecting the public, NASA workforce, high-value equipment and property, and the environment from potential harm. II. Affordable: a) Maximum use of common elements and existing assets, infrastructure, and workforce. b) Constrained budget environment. c) Competitive opportunities for affordability on-ramps. III. Sustainable: a) Initial capability: 70 metric tons (t), 2017-2021. 1) Serves as primary transportation for Orion and exploration missions. 2) Provides back-up capability for crew/cargo to ISS. b) Evolved capability: 105 t and 130 t, post-2021. 1) Offers large volume for science missions and payloads. 2) Modular and flexible, right-sized for mission requirements.

May, Todd↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Affordable Development Strategy for NEP Nuclear Systems

One nuclear electric propulsion (NEP) reactor systems under consideration is a hydride moderated thermal spectrum reactor fueled by high assay low enriched uranium (HALEU). While such a reactor is expected to yield the lightest HALEU reactor design, its development challenges grow exponentially with increasing mission demands, most notably power output, specific weight of the overall system (which may require operation at temperatures exceeding 1200 K), service lifetime, and human-rated reliability. Two of the greatest cost drivers are full-powered nuclear demonstrations and extensive material development campaigns, so it is important to consider options that can minimize the need for or complexity of such tasks. This paper discusses a structured framework being developed for assessing how NEP design choices, such as materials selection, neutronic features, and heat-removal technologies, can translate into project risk and how project performance goals can be traded with development cost.Reactors operating at high temperatures often require cutting-edge heat transfer technologies and creep-resistant materials. Use of new materials in high temperature reactors brings additional complication beyond those common to any new space materials development campaign. For example, such materials may not possess necessary neutronic cross-sectional or neutronic irradiation data. Similarly, use of new materials may significantly influence core neutronics; in some extreme cases, neutronic reactivity feed-back of certain new materials can vary during their service life as radiation damage impacts the scattering cross-section. In an affordable development approach, high fidelity modeling and simulation tools are used to identify and characterize potential ‘knees-in-the-curves’ in the relationship that exists between the mission characteristics and the project risk. Of particular significance is use of modern uncertainty management and variance reduction methods to perform gap analyses that feed into phenomena identification and ranking tables (PIRT) commonly used to communicate nuclear readiness levels. Model-based measurements techniques are used to design sub-scale experiments as a substitute to minimize orcompletely eliminate the need for nuclear demonstrations.This paper will describe the approach and present preliminary results. It will lay the groundwork for developing a set of metrics that can be broadly characterized as system nuclear readiness levels and advancement degree of difficulty for nuclear systems. Equally importantly, a goal of this paper is to initiate a dialogue among stakeholders on what is the sufficient level of maturity that is required for launching a demonstration unit.

Dasari V Rao↗
DOE OSTI2021

An Experimental Analysis on the CNS Simulator Comparing Human Performance between Operators and Students

This study, as a previous study of the SHEEP project, aims to identify differences in human performance data through experiments with students and operators using CNS (Compact Nuclear Simulator). To achieve this goal, this experiment seeks to analyze the correlation of measured human performance between students and operators through a randomized factorial experiment design. Five human performances are measured. In addition, several scenarios and related procedures have been developed for the CNS experiments.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Comparison of Human Error Probabilities Collected from HuREX and SHEEP Frameworks

This paper discusses how different are the HEPs collected from HuREX and SHEEP frameworks. This study is a preceding research to infer full-scope HRA data based on the data collected from the SHEEP framework. For the comparison, we used HEPs in the HuREX database published in KAERI-TR-6649 [6]. The HEPs have been collected from actual licensed operators when manipulating MCR simulators of Westinghouse type and Optimized Power Reactor (OPR1000) type in South Korea. For the HEPs based on the SHEEP framework, these have been collected from actual licensed operators and students when using a simplified simulator, i.e., Rancor Microworld.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2023

An Experimental Investigation of Students? Learning Effects When Using a Simplified Nuclear Simulator

This study focuses on investigating students' learning effects and performance trends over a certain period using the Rancor Microworld Simulator. Specifically, it aims to determine the training required to collect HRA data from non-experts (i.e., students) using Rancor Microworld and the differences in human performance measures between students and professional operators. A longitudinal experiment is conducted with sixteen undergraduate students, using four Rancor Microworld scenarios in each of the four experiment trials. The study considers four human performance measurements workload, situation awareness, time, and error. Finally, the trend of students' performance is compared with operator data collected from the previous experiment. Overall, this research complements previous studies by providing insights into how much training is required to collect HRA data from non-experts and the differences in human performance measures between students and professional operators.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Simulation-Based Recovery Action Analysis Using the EMRALD Dynamic Risk Assessment Tool

A recovery action is defined as the action that prevents deviant conditions from producing unwanted effects. It generally indicates a kind of countermeasure performed in response to a failure of human action. The recovery actions especially play an important role in complex systems like nuclear power plants (NPPs), which consist of highly sophisticated controllers to ensure that desired performance and safety must be achieved and maintained. This is because a combination of human error and its recovery failure may be able to cause a catastrophic effect on a system. Analyzing recovery actions has been a critical part of HRA, which is a technique to evaluate human errors and provide human error probabilities (HEPs) for application in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA). If recovery actions are not adequately analyzed and applied to PSA models, the PSA results may be under-estimated or be not able to reasonably account for the failure of human actions in the context of PSA. For this reason, some regulatory documents such as ASME/ANS RA-Sb-2013 by the American Society for Mechanical Engineers and the American Nuclear Society and NUREG-1792 by U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission have emphasized the importance of recovery analysis within the HRA. A couple of existing HRA methods, such as the Technique for Human Error-Rate Prediction (THERP), the Cause-Based Decision Tree (CBDT), and the Korean Standard HRA (K-HRA), have respectively suggested their own approaches to the HRA recovery analysis. However, there are a couple of limitations to treating recovery actions using only the current HRA methods available. The biggest limitation is that the existing recovery analysis does not explicitly consider a variety of recovery action types and recovery sequences as they occur in actual NPPs. To handle the limitations of existing recovery analysis, this study proposes a simulation-based recovery analysis method using the Event Modeling Risk Assessment Using Linked Diagram (EMRALD) software. The EMRALD software is a dynamic simulation tool for PSA. It supports realistic and dynamic modeling of human actions as they would be performed at NPPs. It is also favorable to simultaneously model the specific moment at which an action is performed, the time it takes to perform the action, and the failure probability of that action. In this paper, a detailed methodology for modeling recovery actions in the simulation platform is proposed with a couple of examples. Then, outputs from the simulation are discussed as reviewing if this novel approach can complement the challenges of existing recovery analyses.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Comparison of Error Rate Depending on Operator Expertise and Simulator Complexity

This paper analyzes operator's error rate from experiments, depending on the expertise and simulator complexity. This study uses the Rancor Microworld, a simplified simulator developed by INL, and the Compact Nuclear Simulator (CNS), a less simplified simulator developed by the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI). The error rates were measured from simulation data of a total of 72 participants, and the collected error rate data were analyzed using analysis of variance (ANOVA) test.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
NASA NTRS2014

An Integrated Reliability and Physics-Based Risk Modeling Approach for Assessing Human Spaceflight Systems

This paper presents an integrated reliability and physics-based risk modeling approach for assessing human spaceflight systems. The approach is demonstrated using an example, end-to-end risk assessment of a generic-crewed space transportation system during a reference mission to the International Space Station. The behavior of the system is modeled using analysis techniques from multiple disciplines in order to properly capture the dynamic time- and state- dependent consequences of failures encountered in different mission phases. We discuss how to combine traditional reliability analyses with Monte Carlo simulation methods and physics-based engineering models to produce loss-of- mission and loss-of-crew risk estimates supporting risk-based decision-making and requirement verification. This approach facilitates risk-informed design by providing more realistic representation of system failures and interactions; identifying key risk-driving sensitivities, dependencies, and assumptions; and tracking multiple figures of merit within a single, responsive assessment framework that can readily incorporate evolving design information throughout system development.

Risk assessment↗
NASA NTRS2017

Thermal Protection for Mars Sample Return Earth Entry Vehicle: A Grand Challenge for Design Methodology and Reliability Verification

Mars Sample Return is our Grand Challenge for the coming decade. TPS (Thermal Protection System) nominal performance is not the key challenge. The main difficulty for designers is the need to verify unprecedented reliability for the entry system: current guidelines for prevention of backward contamination require that the probability of spores larger than 1 micron diameter escaping into the Earth environment be lower than 1 million for the entire system, and the allocation to TPS would be more stringent than that. For reference, the reliability allocation for Orion TPS is closer to 11000, and the demonstrated reliability for previous human Earth return systems was closer to 1100. Improving reliability by more than 3 orders of magnitude is a grand challenge indeed. The TPS community must embrace the possibility of new architectures that are focused on reliability above thermal performance and mass efficiency. MSR (Mars Sample Return) EEV (Earth Entry Vehicle) will be hit with MMOD (Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris) prior to reentry. A chute-less aero-shell design which allows for self-righting shape was baselined in prior MSR studies, with the assumption that a passive system will maximize EEV robustness. Hence the aero-shell along with the TPS has to take ground impact and not break apart. System verification will require testing to establish ablative performance and thermal failure but also testing of damage from MMOD, and structural performance at ground impact. Mission requirements will demand analysis, testing and verification that are focused on establishing reliability of the design. In this proposed talk, we will focus on the grand challenge of MSR EEV TPS and the need for innovative approaches to address challenges in modeling, testing, manufacturing and verification.

Design and Verification for Reliability↗