Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Monte Carlo Analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 145 records · Page 8

Application of a Null-Space Monte Carlo Flow Model Set to the Composite Analysis Base Case Fate and Transport Modeling

The Plateau to River Groundwater Model (P2R Model) is a groundwater flow and contaminant fate and transport (F&T) simulation model used to support remedial activities conducted by CH2M HILL Plateau Remediation Company at the Hanford Site in Washington State. Figure 1-1 illustrates the P2R Model extents, discretization, and boundary conditions. The P2R Model is utilized in the Composite Analysis (CA) for the Hanford Site as the computational engine for computing F&T predictions as described in CP-60406, Hanford Site Composite Analysis Technical Approach Description: Groundwater. The model simulates contaminants of concern within the saturated zone of the uppermost aquifer beneath the Central Plateau and downgradient to the Columbia River. CP-57037, Model Package Report for the Plateau to River Model Version 8.3, documents the current version of the P2R Model including a description of the conceptual site model, model development and calibration, and limitations to the model application. The overall objective of the saturated zone modeling effort is to provide a basis for making informed remedial action decisions based on descriptions of current and expected future contaminant concentrations in groundwater at decision points within and downgradient of the Central Plateau of the Hanford Site. Specifically, the purpose of this environmental calculation is to describe the application of the hydraulic property fields and recharge parameters documented in ECF-HANFORD-20-0027, Null Space Monte Carlo Evaluation of the Plateau to River Model, to the CA flow and fate and transport simulation results to quantify the uncertainty in the simulated results due to input parameter selection. Use of numerical groundwater models is always accompanied with uncertainty in the results produced by a model because models are approximations of reality. Thus, by definition, models lack the detail to fully represent observed behavior. Use of numerical techniques, such as a NSMC analysis, can help in identifying and quantifying the potential uncertainties associated with a numerical model such as the P2R Model. The result of NSCM analysis is a set of F&T simulations that provide an estimate of the range of possible outcomes that are used to quantify the uncertainty in simulated concentrations produced using the base case simulations. The simulated concentrations from all simulations will support calculation of the uncertainty of the total dose calculated in a separate calculation.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Efficient Subset Simulation using Hamiltonian Neural Network enhanced Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods

The Monte Carlo method delivers an unbiased estimate of the probability of failure. However, the variance of the estimate depends on the number of evaluated samples. This number must be very large for estimations of a low probability of failure. If the evaluation of each sample is computationally expensive, the crude Monte Carlo simulation strategy is impracticable. Therefore, subset simulations are used to reduce the required number of evaluations. Subset simulations require a Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampler, such as the random walk Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. The algorithm, however, struggles with sampling in low-probability regions, especially if they are narrow. As a consequence, advanced Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations have been developed. In particular, the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method explores the target distribution rapidly. Driven by the idea of Hamiltonian dynamics, this sampler provides a non-random walk through the target distribution. The incorporation of subset simulation and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo methods has shown promising results for reliability analysis. One downside of the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method is that gradient evaluations are computationally expensive, especially when dealing with high-dimensional problems and evaluating long trajectories. We show that integrating Hamiltonian neural networks in Hamiltonian Monte Carlo simulations significantly speeds up the sampling task. Furthermore, the enhancement of adaptive trajectory length within the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo results in the efficient proposal of the following states. Based on this recent enhancement, we provide a fast sampling strategy for subset simulations using Hamiltonian neural networks to replace the evaluation of the gradient and significantly speed up the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo simulation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A detailed experimental and modeling comparison of molecular radiative heat loss in a spark-ignition engine

Radiative heat transfer has been chiefly considered negligible in internal combustion engines, except for Diesel engines where soot radiation was recognized as a significant radiative transfer source. Only more recently, detailed simulations have shown that molecular radiation can be substantial as well. In extension to this, molecular radiative heat transfer can reach detectable levels of about 5–10% of the total heat transfer in spark-ignited engines. The broadband radiative nature of the significant emitting molecules, carbon dioxide and water, makes it necessary to address whether radiative trapping plays a substantial role in either total heat loss or energy redistribution within the cylinder. An experimental setup that allows measurements of the infrared emissions at a 2-crank-angle-degree resolution was developed to determine the importance of radiative trapping by carbon dioxide and water. Measurements were conducted in the well-characterized and documented TCC-III engine at the University of Michigan. The engine operated on a stoichiometric propane/air mixture at a speed of 1,300 RPM. Large Eddy Simulations with added line-by-line photon Monte-Carlo simulations of the molecular radiation were an integral part of this study to plan and devise the measurements. Post-processing of the simulation data included an accurate representation of the experimental volume from where infrared signals are collected. Additionally, the experimental data were used for validation of the photon Monte-Carlo simulations. Joint analysis of experimental and simulated spectra allowed quantifying the significance of radiative trapping. Results show the significant role of radiative trapping when predicting radiative heat transfer in the TCC-III engine.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Application of a Null-Space Monte Carlo Flow Model Set to the Composite Analysis Base Case Fate and Transport Modeling

The Plateau-to-River (P2R) Model is a groundwater flow and contaminant fate and transport (F&T) simulation model used to support remedial activities conducted by Central Plateau Cleanup Company (CPCCo) at the Hanford Site in Washington State. Figure 1 illustrates the P2R Model extents, discretization, and boundary conditions. The P2R Model is utilized in the composite analysis (CA) for the Hanford Site as the computational engine for computing F&T predictions as described in CP-60406, Hanford Site Composite Analysis Technical Approach Description: Groundwater. The model simulates contaminants of concern within the saturated zone of the uppermost aquifer beneath the Central Plateau and downgradient to the Columbia River. CP-57037, Model Package Report for the Plateau to River Model Version 8.3 documents the current version of the P2R Model including a description of the conceptual site model, model development and calibration, and limitations to the model application.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Ferrimagnetic spin waves in honeycomb and triangular layers of Mn{sub 3}Si{sub 2}Te{sub 6}.

A detailed analysis of the ferrimagnetic ground state of Mn 3 Si 2 Te 6 has been performed using inelastic neutron scattering. Although the proposed valence of the nominal Mn 2+ ions would have quenched orbital angular momentum, a significant exchange anisotropy exists in Mn 3 Si 2 Te 6 . This apparent exchange anisotropy is a manifestation of a weak spin-orbit coupling in the layered material. We employ a detailed simulation of the spin-wave spectrum coupling traditional refinement of dispersion parameters to image analysis techniques, while including Monte Carlo simulations of the instrumental resolution to accurately identify the exchange couplings to the third nearest neighbor. An independent validation of our results is made by comparing our final Hamiltonian to heat capacity measurements.

Sala, G.↗

Volumetrically Absorbing Thermal Insulator (VATI) for High-temperature Receivers

This project seeks to exploit volumetric absorption of concentrated solar irradiation in a thin, high-temperature, thermally conductive medium. High efficiency thermal conversion is achieved by volumetric absorption of both incoming solar irradiation (short wavelength) and emitted irradiation (long wavelength), demonstrating a volumetrically absorbing thermally insulating (VATI) effect. The thermalized energy is conducted to the back wall, enclosing the working fluid (molten salt or supercritical CO 2 ). Reliance on conductive thermal transport requires a thermally conductive medium, in the absence of which large temperature gradients drive losses due to emission. The project’s outcomes are important to realize a cost-effective approach to reduce optical and thermal losses from CSP receivers at high temperatures (720°C). High-temperature stable and commercially available porous SiC structures (open-cell foams) were explored as a volumetrically absorbing and thermally insulating layer. To the best of our knowledge, the current state-of-the-art for industrially deployed coatings is Pyromark. However, Pyromark suffers degradation at 700+°C and diurnal temperature changes. This necessitates periodic recoating, and the downtime increases the overall levelized cost of energy (LCOE) production. On the other hand, contemporary research activities have generated significant advances in the development of selective emitter coatings, which present challenges with costs, scalability, and stability. The pursued approach alleviates these concerns by developing a receiver that utilizes the inherent structure of high-temperature stable porous materials to enable robust and cost-effective receivers which require no periodic maintenance downtimes. The overall goal of the project is to experimentally demonstrate a figure of merit (FOM) of 0.92 at a temperature of 720°C and solar irradiation of 1000x concentration with porous receivers. The relevant crystallographic (phase) optical and thermal properties of porous SiC were first characterized. Second, the 3-D geometry of the porous SiC was analyzed using micro-X-ray tomography and converted to CAD data using image processing analysis. Utilizing this 3-D geometry and relevant optical/thermal properties, Monte Carlo- Ray Tracing (MCRT) analysis was performed to extract important parameters governing solar-thermal energy conversion such as extinction coefficient (β, 1/m), scattering albedo (ω) and the scattering phase function (Φ). These properties were then integrated into an in-house radiative and conduction transport model to solve for temperature and transport fluxes characterizing the solar-thermal energy conversion. This model was utilized to predict the FOM for various SiC porous geometries and to identify the highest possible FOM. Testing of the optimized porous structures will be accomplished with a custom-built high-accuracy (< ±4%) FOM measurement test-stand and a 1000x solar concentrator. When neglecting convective losses and resistance at the open boundary and the back wall, the optimized SiC foam leads to a FOM of 0.84. This FOM does not surpass the performance of Pyromark 2500. Yet, conversely to Pyromark 2500, SiC is stable at high temperatures and does not degrade over time. Also, it is possible to boost the FOM of SiC by engineering its effective thermal conductivity and its scattering albedo. A FOM of 0.92 is predicted for an optimized foam by accounting for convective losses and resistance at the open boundary and the back wall. This largely exceeds the FOM of Pyromark 2500 (~0.86) predicted by neglecting convective losses and resistance. Therefore, further engineering of the foam could lead to unprecedented FOMs.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Techno-Economic Analysis and Market Potential of Geological Thermal Energy Storage (GeoTES) Charged With Solar Thermal and Heat Pumps

In this project, we developed a techno-economic analysis (TEA) model that can be used to evaluate the viability of a proposed Geological Thermal Energy Storage (GeoTES) design. This MATLAB-based model integrates distinct subsystem models for the reservoir, wells, power cycle, and solar field to capture their distinct characteristics. It applies this approach in simulating GeoTES storage and dispatch operations for durations ranging from hourly to seasonal. Using cases studies based on GeoTES designs provided by industry partners - Premier Resource Management (PRM) and EarthBridge Energy - we validated the TEA model estimations of system performance and costs (such as thermal and electrical power/energy inflow and outflow, capital costs, and levelized costs of energy and storage) for both concentrating solar thermal (CST) and Carnot Battery (CB) pairings with GeoTES (CST-GeoTES and CB-GeoTES). For the CST-GeoTES case, the model was validated against the proposed system designed by PRM. It showed good agreement with PRM's estimations when well and pump costs derived from PRM's estimations were used. When GETEM-based costs were used, there was a slight overprediction due to GETEM's project/site agnostic assumption of these costs. From a sensitivity analysis perspective, the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of the CST-GeoTES case was most sensitive to well flow rate and the charging temperature. An optimal design scenario resulted in an LCOE of 0.11 $\$$/kWhe. CST-GeoTES can also provide a source of heat to meet seasonal demands. With 12-hour and 24-hour levelized cost of heat (LCOH) of 0.018 $\$$/kWhth and 0.022 $\$$/kWhth, respectively, CST-GeoTES could be competitive in the California market with an average industrial price of natural gas in California between 0.041-0.047 $\$$/kWhth. The levelized cost of storage (LCOS) for CST-GeoTES depends on the energy storage duration. Although the LCOS is relatively higher for shorter durations (e.g., ~0.50 $\$$/kWhe for 1 hour of storage), it is an order of magnitude lower (0.06 $\$$/kWhe) for longer storage durations and competitive with lithium-ion batteries (beyond 12 hours of storage) and molten-salt thermal energy storage (beyond 32 hours). Energy. Three options were explored and applied to the EarthBridge case study: (1) A Carnot Battery design using R125 working fluid with both hot and cold storage; (2) A Carnot Battery design using R125 working fluid with only hot storage; (3) A Carnot Battery using a commercially available heat pump with carbon dioxide (CO2) working fluid and hot storage only. The CB-GeoTES with cold storage only had a slight (round-trip) efficiency advantage over the system without (43.4% vs. 42.8%). This is because the cold storage is limited by the freezing point of water, so the cold storage is not much colder than the environment. The system using commercially available technologies was the least efficient - partly because different cycles were used in the heat pump (CO2) and heat engine (binary cycle) which leads to some inefficiencies. Using the commercially available design, the levelized cost of energy (LCOS) from the model (0.10 $\$$/kWhe) was higher than that estimated by EarthBridge (0.068 $\$$/kWhe). This is because of the low round-trip (38.7%) efficiency of the commercially available design. Sensitivity analysis reveals that the model is most sensitive to electricity price. Including electricity price in the TEA for CB-GeoTES leads to an increase in LCOS from the base value to 0.25 $\$$/kWhe. To determine storage sites suitable for GeoTES, we gathered and analyzed geological, petrophysical, and geophysical data of oil and gas reservoir and aquifers in California and Texas. We down-selected possible sites based on cut-off values for site characteristics (e.g., reservoir temperature, formation thickness, permeability, porosity, depth, and brine salinity) and preliminary costs. Using this approach, the Carrizo-Wilcox, Yegua-Jackson, and Dockum brackish aquifers in Texas were identified as having the highest suitability. Similarly, in the central California region, the White Wolf, Belridge South Tulare, and Belridge South Reef Ridge were the most suitable. Going further, we assessed the storage potential in the selected sites. To do this we developed distributions of reservoir characteristic data and applied a Monte Carlo-based analysis to account for intrinsic uncertainty in the acquired data. The analysis revealed that the Carrizo-Wilcox aquifer had the highest storage potential with a mean capacity of 554 TWhth (i.e., 63 TWhe). The estimated capacity serves as an upper limit of storage potential given that not all fields in the basin will be developed. We participated in multiple outreach activities including conference presentations, panel session discussions, and the facilitation of a GeoTES workshop at the NREL Golden campus.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Cluster spin glass correlations and dynamics in Zn 0.5⁢ Mn 0.5⁢ Te

Here, we present a combined magnetometry, muon spin-relaxation (𝜇⁢SR), and neutron-scattering study of the insulating spin glass Zn 0.5 ⁢Mn 0.5 ⁢Te, for which magnetic Mn 2+ and nonmagnetic Zn 2+ ions are randomly distributed on a face-centered cubic lattice. The magnetometry and 𝜇⁢SR results confirm a spin freezing transition around 𝑇 𝑓 ≈ 23 K, with the spin-fluctuation rate decreasing gradually and somewhat inhomogeneously through the sample volume as the temperature decreases toward 𝑇 𝑓 . Characteristic spin-correlation times well above 𝑇 𝑓 are on the order of 10 −10 s, much slower than typically observed in canonical spin glasses but in line with expectations for a cluster spin glass. Using magnetic pair distribution function (mPDF) analysis and reverse Monte Carlo (RMC) modeling of the magnetic diffuse neutron-scattering data, we show that the spin-glass ground state consists of clusters of spins exhibiting short-range-ordered type-III antiferromagnetic correlations with a locally ordered moment of 3.1⁢(1)⁢𝜇 B between nearest-neighbor spins. The type-III correlations decay exponentially as a function of spin separation distance with a correlation length of approximately 5 Å. The diffuse magnetic scattering and corresponding mPDF show no significant changes across 𝑇 𝑓 , indicating that the dynamically fluctuating short-range spin correlations in the paramagnetic state retain the same basic type-III configuration that characterizes the spin-glass state; the only change apparent from the neutron-scattering data is a gradual reduction of the correlation length and locally ordered moment with increasing temperature. Taken together, these results paint a unique and detailed picture of the local magnetic structure and dynamics in Zn 0.5 ⁢Mn 0.5⁢ Te and provide strong evidence that this material is best described as a cluster spin glass. In addition, this work showcases a statistical method for extracting diffuse scattering signals from neutron powder diffraction data, which we developed to facilitate the mPDF and RMC analysis of the neutron data. This method has the potential to be broadly useful for neutron powder diffraction experiments on a variety of materials with short-range atomic or magnetic order.

magnetism↗

Measuring Relative Energies of Ligand Binding Conformations on Nanocluster Surfaces with Temperature-Dependent FTIR Spectroscopy

We present a method to measure relative energies between binding conformations of carboxylate ligands on InP magic-sized clusters in solution. Using Markov chain Monte Carlo global fitting analysis on temperature-dependent vibrational spectra of cluster-bound ligands, we observe significantly different relative energies between various bidentate and monodentate binding motifs. Relative to the monodentate motif, the chelating conformation is 0.7 ± 0.3 kcal/mol more stable and the syn–syn bridging conformation is 1.1 ± 0.5 kcal/mol more stable, but the syn–anti bridging conformation exhibits no significant difference. Our results demonstrate that the relative energy between monodentate-bound carboxylates and unbound carboxylic acids is 4.52 ± 0.05 kcal/mol, or 1582 ± 19 cm –1 , nearly identical to the carboxylate asymmetric stretching frequency. Here, we suggest that the ligand vibrational energy may play a key role in ligand dissociation by compensating for energy differences between bound and dissociated ligand states. This approach gives important experimental insights into ligand binding and can inform future nanocrystal surface engineering.

Conformation↗

Tailoring Hierarchical Structure and Rare Earth Affinity of Compositionally Identical Polymers via Sequence Control

Macromolecule sequence, structure, and function are inherently intertwined. While well-established relationships exist in proteins, they are more challenging to define for synthetic polymer nanoparticles due to their molecular weight, sequence, and conformational dispersities. Furthermore, to explore the impact of sequence on nanoparticle structure, we synthesized a set of 16 compositionally identical, sequence-controlled polymers with distinct monomer patterning of dimethyl acrylamide and a bioinspired, structure-driving di(phenylalanine) acrylamide (FF). Sequence control was achieved through multiblock polymerizations, yielding unique ensembles of polymer sequences which were simulated by kinetic Monte Carlo simulations. Systematic analysis of the global (tertiary- and quaternary-like) structure in this amphiphilic copolymer series revealed the effect of multiple sequence descriptors: the number of domains, the hydropathy of terminal domains, and the patchiness (density) of FF within a domain, each of which impacted both chain collapse and the distribution of single- and multichain assemblies. Furthermore, both the conformational freedom of chain segments and local-scale, β-sheet-like interactions were sensitive to the patchiness of FF. To connect sequence, structure, and target function, we evaluated an additional series of nine sequence-controlled copolymers as sequestrants for rare earth elements (REEs) by incorporating a functional acrylic acid monomer into select polymer scaffolds. We identified key sequence variables that influence the binding affinity, capacity, and selectivity of the polymers for REEs. Collectively, these results highlight the potential of and boundaries of sequence control via multiblock polymerizations to drive primary sequence ensembles hierarchical structures, and ultimately the functionality of compositionally identical polymeric materials.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

EIC impact on un/polarized collinear PDFs

We present an impact study of future EIC measurements on our knowledge of PDFs, using the JAM Monte Carlo global QCD analysis framework. We study the effect of EIC pseudo-data for polarization asymmetries on quark and gluon helicity distributions in the proton. An overview of the impact of future inclusive DIS and parity-violating DIS data on unpolarized PDFs is also shown.

Delcarro, Filippo↗

Production and discovery of neutron-rich isotopes by fragmentation of 198 Pt

Production cross sections were measured for fragments produced by an 85 MeV/u 198 Pt beam incident on a beryllium target. Event-by-event particle identification of A, Z, and q for the reaction products was performed by employing energy loss, time-of-flight, magnetic rigidity, and total kinetic energy measurements. Over 70 nuclei in the Hf-Pt region were identified, including three isotopes first observed in this work: 191,192 Hf and 189 Lu. Due to the existence of multiple charge states between H-like and C-like ions, a new analysis method was introduced, incorporating Monte Carlo calculations of charge state fractions for a given charge state of the projectile residue just after the reaction. For the first time, charge-state probability distribution functions after the reaction have been deduced from experimental data. Furthermore, this study provides insight into how to produce key nuclides near N = 126 and the ability of a fragmentation residue to retain electrons from the primary beam.

190 ≤ A ≤ 219↗

Describing the Influence of Ball-milling on the Amorphization of Flubendazole Using the PDF and RMC Methods with X-ray Powder Diffraction Data

Flubendazole (FBZ) is a poorly water-soluble drug, and different methodologies have been proposed to improve its oral bioavailability. Obtaining the amorphous drug phase is an alternative to improve its water solubility. Several techniques for drug amorphization, such as spray drying, lyophilization, melt quenching, solvent-evaporation, and ball milling, can yield various types of structural disorder and possibly render variations in physicochemical properties. Herein, we focus on evaluating the influence of the ball-milling process on the amorphization of FBZ. The characterization of the average global and local structures before, during, and after the milling process is described by sequential Rietveld refinements, pair distribution function analysis, and the Reverse Monte Carlo method. In conclusion, we show that preserving the local structure (nearest molecules) can be responsible for avoiding the fast structure recrystallization commonly observed when using the solvent-evaporation process for the studied drug.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗