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At least 145 records · Page 8

Stationarity of the Tropical Pacific Teleconnection to North America in CMIP5 PMIP3 Model Simulations

The temporal stationarity of the teleconnection between the tropical Pacific Ocean and North America (NA) is analyzed in atmosphere-only, and coupled last-millennium, historical, and control runs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 data archive. The teleconnection, defined as the correlation between December-January-February (DJF) tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and DJF 200 mb geopotential height, is found to be nonstationary on multidecadal timescales. There are significant changes in the spatial features of the teleconnection over NA in continuous 56-year segments of the last millennium and control simulations. Analysis of atmosphere-only simulations forced with observed SSTs indicates that atmospheric noise cannot account for the temporal variability of the teleconnection, which instead is likely explained by the strength of, and multidecadal changes in, tropical Pacific Ocean variability. These results have implications for teleconnection-based analyses of model fidelity in simulating precipitation, as well as any reconstruction and forecasting efforts that assume stationarity of the observed teleconnection.

histories↗

The Salience of Nonlinearities in the Boreal Winter Response to ENSO: North Pacific and North America

The prominence of nonlinearities in the response to El Niño as compared to La Niña, to moderate El Niño events as compared to extreme El Ninño events, and to different flavors of El Niño events, are analyzed using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model. In the Central North Pacific region where the sea level pressure response to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) peaks, nonlinearities are relatively muted. In contrast, changes to the east of this region (i.e. the far-Northeastern Pacific) and to the north of this region (over Alaska) in response to different ENSO phases are more clearly nonlinear, and become statistically robust after more than 15 events are considered. The relative prominence of these nonlinearities is related to the zonal wavenumber of the tropical precipitation response. Associated with these nonlinearities over the far-Northeastern Pacific are nonlinearities in precipitation over Western United States and surface temperature over Northwest North America and Midwestern United States. In all regions at least 15 events of each type are necessary before nonlinearities can be identified as statistically significant at the 95% confidence level due to the presence of internal atmospheric variability. As there have only been a similar number of ENSO events to the total needed for significance since 1920, it is not surprising that it has been difficult to establish statistically significant nonlinearities using observational data.

Nonlinearities↗

Impact of Pacific Ocean Heatwaves on Phytoplankton Community Composition

Since 2013, marine heatwaves have become recurrent throughout the equatorial and northeastern Pacific Ocean and are expected to increase in intensity relative to historic norms. Among the ecological ramifications associated with these high temperature anomalies are increased mortality of higher trophic organisms such as marine mammals and seabirds, which are likely triggered by changes in the composition of phytoplankton, the base of the marine trophic food web. Here, we assimilated satellite ocean color data into an ocean biogeochemical model to describe changes in the abundance of phytoplankton functional types (PFTs) during the last decade's (2010s) warm anomalies in the equatorial and northeastern Pacific Ocean. We find important changes associated with the "Blob" warm anomaly in the Gulf of Alaska, where reduced silica supply led to a switch in community composition from diatoms to dinoagellates, resulting in an increase in surface ocean chlorophyll during the Summer-Fall of 2014. A more dramatic change was observed in the equatorial Pacific, where the extreme warm conditions of the 2016 El Niño resulted in a major decline of about 40 % in surface chlorophyll, which was associated with a nearly total collapse in diatoms.

Pacific Ocean↗

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Facility Radionuclide Emission Points and Sampling Systems

Battelle–Pacific Northwest Division operates numerous research and development laboratories in Washington State. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) contracts to Battelle at Richland facilities on both the DOE Hanford Site and the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) Richland campus. These facilities have the potential for radionuclide air emissions. The PNNL contract with DOE also includes operations at the PNNL-Sequim campus in Sequim, where there is also the potential for radionuclide air emissions. This document is a periodic update that describes current PNNL facility emission units and sampling systems. The National Emission Standard for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAP [40 Code of Federal Regulations 61, Subpart H]) requires an assessment of all emission units that have the potential for radionuclide air emissions. Emission units are registered with the State of Washington. Potential emissions from emission units are assessed annually by PNNL staff. Sampling, monitoring, and other regulatory compliance requirements are designated based on the potential to-emit dose criteria, a graded approach to facility-identified potential impact categories, and regulatory requirements. The purpose of this document is to describe the facility radionuclide air emission sampling program and provide current and historical facility emission unit system performance, operation, and design information. For sampled emission units, the building, exhaust unit, control technologies, and sample extraction details are provided. Additionally, applicable configuration drawings, figures, and photographs are included. For non-sampled emission units, emission estimation and radionuclide source details are provided. Site-wide permits for the lowest potential impact category are described. Deregistered/transitioned emission unit details are also provided as necessary for at least 5 years post-closure/transition. Currently, five emission units are sampled continuously for particulate radionuclides at PNNL managed facilities on the PNNL-Richland campus (3 of the 5) and on the Hanford Site (2 of the 5). Four of these units have sampling systems that comply with the American National Standards Institute/Health Physics Society (ANSI/HPS) N13.1–2011 standard for sampling from stacks and ducts of nuclear facilities, and the fifth is grandfathered and compliant with the older ANSI N13.1–1969 standard. In addition, the PNNL-managed Hanford Site 325 Building EP 325-01-S stack is sampled continuously for emissions of tritium. No emissions sampling is required for the single licensed emission unit on the PNNL-Sequim campus.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Data and script associated with “Shifts in Rain-Snow Partitioning Drive Faster Water Transit Times in the US Pacific Northwest”

This data package contains the data and code to use and run the Water Tracer enabled version of the Weather Research and Forecasting Hydrologic model (WT-WRF-Hydro) with the Sequential Precipitation Input Tagging (SPIT) framework. It is associated with the publication “Shifts in Rain-Snow Partitioning Drive Faster Water Transit Times in the US Pacific Northwest” published in Scientific Reports (Butler et al., 2026; https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-46539-1). We use the Continental U.S. (CONUSII; Rasmussen et al., 2021) dataset to force the model with an historical climate (2006–2013) and a future climate (2086–2093) with a representative carbon pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. We use the model to calculate water transit times in five headwater catchments within the U.S. Pacific Northwest. We also show key hydrologic and environmental variables that affect water transit times and changes in the future. Finally, we use observed data to validate the model such as stream water isotopes, snowpack characteristics, and stream discharge. For details on how to navigate data packages generated by this project, see https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/PNNLRiverCorridorSFA/About. In addition to a readme, this data package also includes a file-level metadata (FLMD) file that describes each file and a data dictionary (DD) that describes all column/row headers and variable definitions. The data package consists of 11 folders: (1) "Figures" contains the exported figures used in the manuscript; (2) "Model_Isotope_Date" contains the WT-WRF-Hydro isotope date used in model validation; (3) “Model_Outputs_Future” contains the WT-WRF-Hydro future climate outputs; (4) “Model_Outputs_Historical” contains the WT-WRF-Hydro historical climate outputs; (5) “Model_Outputs_Weights_Areas” contains the WT-WRF-Hydro weights per catchment used to calculate water transit times and isotopes in stream water; (6) “MODIS_data_scripts” contains data used to validate snow conditions in the study area; (7) “Observed_Flow_Data” contains the observed streamflow data used in model validation; (8) “Observed_Isotope_Data” contains the observed stream water isotope data used in model validation; (9) “Scripts” contains the Python scripts used to general results and the figures; (10) “Statistic_Outputs” contains the water transit time statistical outputs reported in this manuscript; (11) “Validation_SNOTEL” contains the SNOTEL data used in model validation. The files in this data package have the following file extensions: .tif, .txt, .csv, .pdf, .py, .jpg, and .png.

American River↗

PNNL Sequim Campus Radionuclide Air Emissions Report for Calendar Year 2025 : Department of Energy – Office of Science Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

The U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science’s Pacific Northwest Site Office has oversight and stewardship duties associated with the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Sequim Campus. Facility operations include radiological operations with the potential-to-emit low levels of radioactive materials. This report is prepared to document compliance with the 40 CFR Part 61, National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants, Subpart H, “National Emission Standards for Emissions of Radionuclides Other than Radon from Department of Energy Facilities,” and Washington Administrative Code Chapter 246-247, Radiation Protection–Air Emissions. The PNNL Sequim Campus is in compliance with the federal and state 10 mrem/yr standard for 2025 operations.

40 CFR 61 Subpart H↗

Oxygen consumption of sexually mature adult, first-feeding larval, and yearling Pacific Lampreys

Abstract Objective The Pacific Lamprey Entosphenus tridentatus is considered a first food of Native American tribes, such as the Confederated Tribes of the Umatilla Indian Reservation. Populations of this imperiled species have declined such that harvest for traditional use is limited. As a result, propagation and culture of Pacific Lampreys have been initiated to supply animals for restoration and recovery efforts. These efforts require transport and periodic holding of both adults and larvae under static (no-flow) conditions. Hence, guidelines for ensuring an adequate oxygen supply are needed for all life stages of this species. Methods We measured oxygen consumption rates of mature adults, first-feeding larvae, and yearlings under static conditions at 12–15°C. In addition, we recorded indicators of stress during hypoxia for adults and estimated routine respiration rates during and after larval feeding. Result Adults exhibited surprisingly high metabolic rates when at rest in static chambers. At 12°C, a single adult typically reduced dissolved oxygen levels in 10 L to <2 mg/L in just 90 min (oxygen consumption rates of 100–200 mg/kg/h). Adults often started to climb the walls of open chambers when dissolved oxygen levels approached 2 mg/L, allowing them to raise their branchiopores into air. Larvae remained quiescent, even when oxygen levels dropped below 1 mg/L, and costs of feeding increased routine respiration by 22–56%. Conclusion Based on these observations, we recommend that adult Pacific Lampreys always be transported in aerated containers and with access to air at the top of the tank. Although larvae exhibited hypoxia tolerance, care should be taken to ensure adequate oxygen availability, particularly during and immediately after feeding.

Moser, Mary↗

Pacific Lamprey Translocations to the Snake River Boost Abundance of All Life Stages

Abstract The Pacific Lamprey Entosphenus tridentatus is an anadromous fish that has severely declined in the Snake River basin. In 2007, the Nez Perce Tribe initiated translocation of adults to this region from the main‐stem Columbia River and has continued the translocations to this day. These actions are aimed at restoring larval abundance along with holistic habitat improvements. We performed parentage and sibship analyses with 260 single‐nucleotide polymorphism loci to monitor productivity of translocated lamprey over a decade (2007–2018). These results provide the first direct evidence that translocations boosted larval abundance, increased juvenile production in the interior Columbia River (~3% in 2017 and 2018), and demonstrated successful migration to the Pacific Ocean. Per capita juvenile production from Snake River adult lamprey translocations out‐performed that of their volitionally migrating counterparts in the interior Columbia River, demonstrating that translocating adults to suitable habitats increased overall productivity. We projected that the translocations may eventually return enough adult offspring to the Columbia River to replace the annual take of adults for translocations, despite many adults likely returning to other basins. These translocations are also restoring Pacific Lamprey to historical areas where they had been nearly extirpated, which has impactful benefits both culturally and ecologically. Further, this study provided an unprecedented volume of data that has redefined key biological attributes, including timing of life stage transformation (average of 6.7‐year‐old juveniles), larval growth rates (~22 mm/year for the first 4 years), ocean duration (average of 5.1 years), dispersal (~3% of Snake River‐origin adults that return to the Columbia River will divert to the Willamette River), and life span (median age of postspawn adults was 12.9 years). We even quantified a new biological phenomenon of delayed spawning, which occurs at low rates (~9%) in nature. These data provide an opportunity to monitor ongoing translocation efforts and inform adaptive management to aid species recovery.

Hess, Jon E.↗

Revisiting the equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature response to global warming

The relative roles of the oceanic and atmospheric processes in the pattern formation of the equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) response to global warming is investigated using a set of climate model experiments embedded with a novel partial coupling technique. Here, the modeling results show that the SST response experiences a transition from a La Niña-like warming pattern at the initial stage to an El Niño-like warming pattern at the quasi-equilibrium stage. By decomposing anomalous equatorial Pacific SST into atmosphere-forced passive component and ocean dynamics-induced active component, it is found that the SST warming pattern at both stages is entirely induced by its active component. Specifically, the meridional and vertical ocean circulation changes play a dominant role in forming the La Niña-like SST warming pattern at the initial stage, and the zonal and meridional ocean circulation changes are responsible for the formation of the El Niño-like SST warming pattern at the quasi-equilibrium stage. In contrast, the passive SST at both stages is characterized by a zonally uniform warming along the equator, which can be explained by a balance between the cooling effect associated with mean upwelling and the warming effect due to surface passive heat flux change. In addition, this study finds that it is the slowdown of the Pacific subtropical cells during the transition period that controls the evolution of the equatorial SST warming pattern by changing the meridional and vertical ocean heat transports.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Leveraging Extremal Dependence to Better Characterize the 2021 Pacific Northwest Heatwave

Abstract In late June, 2021, a devastating heatwave affected the US Pacific Northwest and western Canada, breaking numerous all-time temperature records by large margins and directly causing hundreds of fatalities. The observed 2021 daily maximum temperature across much of the U.S. Pacific Northwest exceeded upper bound estimates obtained from single-station temperature records even after accounting for anthropogenic climate change, meaning that the event could not have been predicted under standard univariate extreme value analysis assumptions. In this work, we utilize a flexible spatial extremes model that considers all stations across the Pacific Northwest domain and accounts for the fact that many stations simultaneously experience extreme temperatures. Our analysis incorporates the effects of anthropogenic forcing and natural climate variability in order to better characterize time-varying changes in the distribution of daily temperature extremes. We show that greenhouse gas forcing, drought conditions and large-scale atmospheric modes of variability all have significant impact on summertime maximum temperatures in this region. Our model represents a significant improvement over corresponding single-station analysis, and our posterior medians of the upper bounds are able to anticipate more than 96% of the observed 2021 high station temperatures after properly accounting for extremal dependence. Supplementary materials accompanying this paper appear online.

Zhang, Likun (ORCID:0000000154584556)↗

An overview of polarized neutron instruments and techniques in Asia Pacific

Polarized neutron scattering is an indispensable tool for exploring a vast range of scientific phenomena. With its dynamic scientific community and significant governmental support as well as the rapid economic growth, the Asia–Pacific region has become a key player in the worldwide neutron scattering arena. From traditional research reactors to cutting-edge spallation neutron sources, this region is home to a myriad of advanced instruments offering a wide range of polarized neutron capabilities. This review aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the development and current status of polarized neutron instruments and techniques in the Asia–Pacific region, emphasizing the important role of the Asia–Pacific region in shaping the landscape of global polarized neutron scattering development.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Connections Between Mean North Pacific Circulation and Western US Precipitation Extremes in a Warming Climate

Abstract Extreme precipitation has widespread impacts over the western US (WUS), which are expected to be exacerbated in the future given thermodynamically driven increases in atmospheric moisture and shifts in atmospheric circulation patterns. However, internal climate variability complicates how these factors affect future projections of precipitation changes. In this study, we investigate late 21st‐century changes in mean‐state responses over the North Pacific Ocean and associated WUS precipitation extremes using the Multi‐Model Large Ensemble Archive, which is a recent and valuable resource to disentangle the effects of model structural differences from internal variability. We found that inter‐model differences in precipitation extremes over the WUS are large: from south to north (here, from California to Washington), models show different levels of increases for both the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation. In general, the Pacific Northwest sees a more consistent signal than California. We show that wet‐season mean circulation influences extreme precipitation, by using a decomposition of the relative contributions of thermodynamic (atmospheric humidity) and dynamic (large‐scale circulation) driven changes. The thermodynamic contribution dominates, however, the dynamic contribution varies with latitude and differs substantially between model ensembles. Inter‐model differences affect the spread in not only the magnitude, but also the sign of the dynamic contribution. This implies that mean circulation changes contribute to uncertainty in quantifying the regional structure of concentrated moisture flux and future extreme events. This result highlights the need to more accurately constrain projected North Pacific coupled circulation changes to narrow the spread in projections of future precipitation extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Spatial Patterns and Trends of Summertime Low Cloudiness for the Pacific Northwest, 1996–2017

Summertime low clouds are common in the Pacific Northwest (PNW), but spatiotemporal patterns have not been characterized. We show the first maps of low cloudiness for the western PNW and North Pacific Ocean using a 22-year satellite-derived record of monthly mean low cloudiness frequency for May through September and supplemented by airport cloud base height observations. Domain-wide cloudiness peaks in midsummer and is strongest over the Pacific. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis identified four distinct PNW spatiotemporal modes: oceanic, terrestrial highlands, coastal, and northern coastal. There is a statistically significant trend over the 22-year record toward reduced low cloudiness in the terrestrial highlands mode, with strongest declines in May and June; however, this decline is not matched in the corresponding airport records. The coastal mode is partly constrained from moving inland by topographic relief and migrates southward in late summer, retaining higher late-season low cloud frequency than the other areas.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impact of Changing Winds on the Mauna Loa CO 2 Seasonal Cycle in Relation to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Abstract Long‐term measurements at the Mauna Loa Observatory (MLO) show that the CO 2 seasonal cycle amplitude (SCA) increased from 1959 to 2019 at an overall rate of 0.22 0.034 ppm decade −1 while also varying on interannual to decadal time scales. These SCA changes are a signature of changes in land ecological CO 2 fluxes as well as shifting winds. Simulations with the TM3 tracer transport model and CO 2 fluxes from the Jena CarboScope CO 2 Inversion suggest that shifting winds alone have contributed to a decrease in SCA of −0.10 0.022 ppm decade −1 from 1959 to 2019, partly offsetting the observed long‐term SCA increase associated with enhanced ecosystem net primary production. According to these simulations and MIROC‐ACTM simulations, the shorter‐term variability of MLO SCA is nearly equally driven by varying ecological CO 2 fluxes (49%) and varying winds (51%). We also show that the MLO SCA is strongly correlated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) due to varying winds, as well as with a closely related wind index (U‐PDO). Since 1980, 44% of the wind‐driven SCA decrease has been tied to a secular trend in the U‐PDO, which is associated with a progressive weakening of westerly winds at 700 mbar over the central Pacific from 20°N to 40°N. Similar impacts of varying winds on the SCA are seen in simulations at other low‐latitude Pacific stations, illustrating the difficulty of constraining trend and variability of land CO 2 fluxes using observations from low latitudes due to the complexity of circulation changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Equatorial Origin of the Observed Tropical Pacific Quasi-Decadal Variability From ENSO Nonlinearity

Quasi-decadal (QD) climate variability is detected in the tropical Pacific based on the recent 70 years of observations. This QD variability is identified in equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the pattern of which resembles the Central Pacific (CP) El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) but extends further meridionally to the northeastern subtropical Pacific. Whereas equatorial upper-ocean heat content and SSTs are in quadrature for ENSO, these two quantities are almost in phase on the QD timescale. Further analysis shows that nonlinear dynamical heating, primarily originating from strong El Niño events, tends to lead QD SSTs by a quarter of its dominant period (approximately 30 months) and shapes the dominant QD periodicity in observations. Here, our results suggest that the observed QD variability largely originates from ENSO nonlinearity and thus is fundamentally different from ENSO's oscillatory nature.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Effect of Indian Ocean Temperature on the Pacific Trade Winds and ENSO

Abstract A notable shift in the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been observed in the early 21st century, characterized by an increased prevalence of Central Pacific (CP) events and strengthened Pacific trade winds. This shift may be attributed to the warming tropical Indian Ocean (TIO). To investigate this, we conduct perturbation experiments using the Insitut Pierre Simon Laplace climate model and nudge TIO surface temperatures to induce warming or cooling effects. Our findings reveal that TIO warming (or cooling) leads to amplified (weakened) mean trade winds and surface warming (cooling) in the Pacific region. Surprisingly, ENSO variability increases in both TIO cooling and warming scenarios. This result is linked to stronger positive feedbacks and a less stable Bjerknes index for either TIO forcing. Additionally, we find that TIO warming leads to more frequent CP events, meridional widening of wind anomalies, and broadening of the ENSO power spectrum toward lower frequencies.

Geology↗

Dynamics for El Niño-La Niña asymmetry constrain equatorial-Pacific warming pattern

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) results from the instability of and also modulates the strength of the tropical-Pacific cold tongue. While climate models reproduce observed ENSO amplitude relatively well, the majority still simulates its asymmetry between warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) phases very poorly. The causes of this major deficiency and consequences thereof are so far not well understood. Analysing both reanalyses and climate models, we here show that simulated ENSO asymmetry is largely proportional to subsurface nonlinear dynamical heating (NDH) along the equatorial Pacific thermocline. Most climate models suffer from too-weak NDH and too-weak linear dynamical ocean-atmosphere coupling. Nevertheless, a sizeable subset (about 1/3) having relatively realistic NDH shows that El Niño-likeness of the equatorial-Pacific warming pattern is linearly related to ENSO amplitude change in response to greenhouse warming. Therefore, better simulating the dynamics of ENSO asymmetry potentially reduces uncertainty in future projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The impacts of Extra-tropical ENSO Precursors on Tropical Pacific Decadal-scale Variability

Abstract Off-equatorial wind anomalies on seasonal timescales from both the North and South Pacific, known as “precursors” of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), have been shown to independently trigger the ENSO feedbacks in the tropics and its teleconnections to the extra-tropics. However, the impacts of ENSO precursors on Tropical Pacific Decadal-scale Variability (TPDV) is still not well understood and quantified. We show that the dynamic sequence from extra-tropical ENSO precursors to ENSO (tropics) to extra-tropical ENSO teleconnections is not only important for ENSO, but acts as a primary mechanism to filter (e.g. reddening) the low-frequency variability of the seasonal precursors into the decadal-scale variance of the Pacific basin, accounting for the largest fraction of the TPDV (~65%) and its phase. This process, which contrasts previous theories advocating for a TPDV generated internally in the tropics (e.g. ENSO residuals), is inherently unpredictable and not well reproduced in climate models and raises challenges for understanding and predicting the role of internal TPDV in future climate change scenarios.

Zhao, Yingying↗