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At least 145 records · Page 8

Characterization of Extremes and Compound Impacts: Applications of Machine Learning and Interpretable Neural Networks

Focal Area: This white paper responds to Focal area III by exploring data fusion, learning and explainable AI methods in characterizing hydrological extremes and interconnections. It also addresses Focal area II by using probabilistic AI and ensemble ML for predicting extremes and compound extremes. Science Challenge: A key question associated with the integrated water (or hydrological) cycle grand challenge in the Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division (EESSD) strategic plan, is how the frequency and intensity of hydrological events will change. Prediction of the tail behavior (extremes) of the hydrological cycle is especially challenging, because of their stochasticity and low probability. These extreme events and their compound impacts have significant societal and economic consequences. It is anticipated for the next-generation Earth System models (ESMs), that model predictability of the water cycle will improve with increased resolution (e.g., regionally refined E3SM), advanced software and computational architectures, and improved model physics based on the data from ARM measurements and high-fidelity models. However, the challenges for predictability of low-probability high-impact extreme events will unlikely be alleviated with conventional modeling and data-driven approaches, as ESMs are calibrated largely for capturing the high-frequency mean climate states. Recent AI and ML applications have shown great potential in quantifying well-defined climate extremes (e.g., supervised learning of tropical cyclones/atmospheric rivers by ClimateNet1) but few efforts are dedicated to compound events, extreme drivers and uncertainty estimation. We envision the opportunity to develop and apply ML and interpretable AI methods extended on the existing efforts, specifically, for: (1) identification of compound extremes, (2) diagnosing drivers of extremes, (3) bias correction in extreme predictions and (4) probabilistic modeling of extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Nominal and adversarial synthetic PMU data for standard IEEE test systems

GridSTAGE (Spatio-Temporal Adversarial scenario GEneration) is a framework for the simulation of adversarial scenarios and the generation of multivariate spatio-temporal data in cyber-physical systems. GridSTAGE is developed based on Matlab and leverages Power System Toolbox (PST) where the evolution of the power network is governed by nonlinear differential equations. Using GridSTAGE, one can create several event scenarios that correspond to several operating states of the power network by enabling or disabling any of the following: faults, AGC control, PSS control, exciter control, load changes, generation changes, and different types of cyber-attacks. Standard IEEE bus system data is used to define the power system environment. GridSTAGE emulates the data from PMU and SCADA sensors. The rate of frequency and location of the sensors can be adjusted as well. Detailed instructions on generating data scenarios with different system topologies, attack characteristics, load characteristics, sensor configuration, control parameters are available in the Github repository - https://github.com/pnnl/GridSTAGE. There is no existing adversarial data-generation framework that can incorporate several attack characteristics and yield adversarial PMU data. The GridSTAGE framework currently supports simulation of False Data Injection attacks (such as a ramp, step, random, trapezoidal, multiplicative, replay, freezing) and Denial of Service attacks (such as time-delay, packet-loss) on PMU data. Furthermore, it supports generating spatio-temporal time-series data corresponding to several random load changes across the network or corresponding to several generation changes. A Koopman mode decomposition (KMD) based algorithm to detect and identify the false data attacks in real-time is proposed in https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/9303022. Machine learning-based predictive models are developed to capture the dynamics of the underlying power system with a high level of accuracy under various operating conditions for IEEE 68 bus system. The corresponding machine learning models are available at https://github.com/pnnl/grid_prediction.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Ultra-low radioactivity flexible printed cables

Abstract Flexible printed cables and circuitry based on copper-polyimide materials are widely used in experiments looking for rare events due to their unique electrical and mechanical characteristics. However, past studies have found copper-polyimide flexible cables to contain 400-4700 pg 238 U/g, 16-3700 pg 232 Th/g, and 170-2100 ng nat K/g, which can be a significant source of radioactive background for many current and next-generation ultralow background detectors. This study presents a comprehensive investigation into the fabrication process of copper-polyimide flexible cables and the development of custom low radioactivity cables for use in rare-event physics applications. A methodical step-by-step approach was developed and informed by ultrasensitive assay to determine the radiopurity in the starting materials and identify the contaminating production steps in the cable fabrication process. Radiopure material alternatives were identified, and cleaner production processes and treatments were developed to significantly reduce the imparted contamination. Through the newly developed radiopure fabrication process, fully-functioning cables were produced with radiocontaminant concentrations of 20-31 pg 238 U/g, 12-13 pg 232 Th/g, and 40-550 ng nat K/g, which is significantly cleaner than cables from previous work and sufficiently radiopure for current and next-generation detectors. This approach, employing witness samples to investigate each step of the fabrication process, can hopefully serve as a template for investigating radiocontaminants in other material production processes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Physics Guided Simulation of Electrostatic Discharge: Technical Report

Triboelectrically-charged objects may create threshold sparks, electrostatic discharge (ESD) events, to equilibrate charge between themselves and other relatively charged objects. ESD events exhibit many complex physical phenomena. They are a nexus of several fields of physics with disparate characteristic scales: plasma physics, chemical kinetics, hydrodynamics, circuit models, etc. These scales can span many orders of magnitude from the varied collisions thermalizing information within a plasma on the $\mathcal{O}(fs/ps)$ to the physical size of the plasma channel on the $\mathcal{O}(100µm)$, to the speed of a nonlinear hydrodynamic wave propagating at $\mathcal{O}(µm, ns)$. These threshold ESD events may occur in situations of programmatic importance, delivering energy and power profiles to a “victim load” generating deleterious consequences. To predict and mitigate these consequences we must answer questions about the spark’s energy budget: how much energy goes into producing the spark channel; how much gets radiated away; how much energy is advected away into the hydrodynamics; and how much energy is delivered to a victim load. An ESD simulation toolset has been created and evolved in order to answer these questions. An appropriate, physics guided implementation for simulation can be done by gaining insight into its constituent physics and leveraging that intuition to choose a suitable numerical operator. We examine in detail the chemical kinetics, circuit discharge, and hydrodynamics to deter mine dominant regimes, values, timescales, and interactions to uncover the underlying physical dynamics. We also examine and propose model reduction schemes for high-dimensional chemical kinetics. We use past and current work with experimentally validated and theoretically-verified hydrodynamics to calculate applicability limits of the non-ionizing strong shock limit. We quantify the energy budget from a hydrodynamic perspective and demonstrate that a significant fraction of the stored energy is “earmarked” for hydrodynamic advection as an energy terminus. Lastly, we combine the constituent physics of an ESD event (chemical kinetics, circuit model, and hydrodynamics) into a cohesive, actionable toolset and obtain promising results from an isothermal test case. We then propose a viable, modular evolution of the ESD toolset based upon the performed examination of the physics uncovering dominant physical scales and the stiffness of the compositional differential system.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

The Quantum Condition Space

Abstract The fundamental properties of quantum physics are exploited to evaluate event probabilities with projection measurements. Next, to study what events can be specified by quantum methods, the concept of the condition space is introduced, which is found to be the dual space of the classical outcome space of bit strings. Like the classical outcome space generates the quantum state space, the condition space generates the quantum condition space being the central idea of this work. The quantum condition space permits the existence of entangled conditions having no classical equivalent. In addition, the quantum condition space is related to the quantum state space by a Fourier transform guaranteed by the Pontryagin duality, and therefore an entropic uncertainty principle can be defined. The quantum condition space offers a novel perspective of understanding quantum states with the duality picture. Furthermore, the quantum conditions have physical meanings and realizations of their own and thus may be studied for purposes beyond the original motivation of characterizing events for probability evaluation. Finally, the relation between the condition space and quantum circuits provides insights into how quantum states are collectively modified by quantum gates, which may lead to deeper understanding of the complexity of quantum circuits.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Precision QCD, Hadronic Structure & Forward QCD, Heavy Ions: Report of Energy Frontier Topical Groups 5, 6, 7 submitted to Snowmass 2021

This report was prepared on behalf of three Energy Frontier Topical Groups of the Snowmass 2021 Community Planning Exercise. It summarizes the status and implications of studies of strong interactions in high-energy experiments and QCD theory. We emphasize the rich landscape and broad impact of these studies in the decade ahead. Hadronic interactions play a central role in the high-luminosity Large Hadron Collider (LHC) physics program, and strong synergies exist between the (HL-)LHC and planned or proposed experiments at the U.S. Electron-Ion Collider, CERN forward physics experiments, high-intensity facilities, and future TeV-range lepton and hadron colliders. Prospects for precision determinations of the strong coupling and a variety of nonperturbative distribution and fragmentation functions are examined. We also review the potential of envisioned tests of new dynamical regimes of QCD in high-energy and high-density scattering processes with nucleon, ion, and photon initial states. The important role of the high-energy heavy-ion program in studies of nuclear structure and the nuclear medium, and its connections with QCD involving nucleons are summarized. We address ongoing and future theoretical advancements in multi-loop QCD computations, lattice QCD, jet substructure, and event generators. Cross-cutting connections between experimental measurements, theoretical predictions, large-scale data analysis, and high-performance computing are emphasized.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Reducing negative weights in Monte Carlo event generation with Sherpa

An increase in theoretical precision of Monte Carlo event generators is typically accompanied by an increased need for computational resources. One major obstacle are negative weighted events, which appear in Monte Carlo simulations with higher perturbative accuracy. While they can be handled somewhat easily in fixed-order calculations, they are a major concern for particle level event simulations. In this article, the origin of negative weights in the S-MC@NLO method is reviewed and mechanisms to reduce the negative weight fraction in simulations with the Sherpa event generator are presented, with a focus on V+jets and tt+jets simulations.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Dynamical Downscaling of Earth System Model Data for Energy System Analysis

Assessing energy resources (e.g., solar, wind, and hydro) under future scenarios requires datasets with sufficient spatial and temporal detail to capture variability and extreme events. While global-scale Earth System Model (ESM) projections are widely used, their coarse resolution limits direct application to regional energy system analyses. Dynamical downscaling offers a robust approach to generate physically consistent, fine-scale datasets that better represent local atmospheric processes impacting energy resources. In this work, we present a two-stage approach for producing high-resolution historical and future projections over the contiguous United States (CONUS). First, we optimize the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model configuration for energy-relevant variables - solar irradiance, wind speed, and precipitation - by conducting ERA5-driven simulations at 8-km and 28-km resolution. Multiple physics schemes and model configurations within the WRF are evaluated against observational datasets including the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM), and the Stage IV multi-radar/multi-sensor precipitation product for the CONUS domain. Using the best-performing configuration, we dynamically downscale MPI-ESM1-2-HR simulations for 2000-2060 under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios at 4-km spatial and hourly temporal resolution. This presentation will provide a comprehensive analysis of the results from multiple numerical experiments and high-resolution ESM projections. In addition, we will discuss potential applications of our high-resolution datasets within the energy sector and outline future research avenues dedicated to evaluating how extreme weather events influence system performance and resilience.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Evidence for a QCD accelerator in relativistic heavy-ion collisions

Here, we report measurements of forward jets produced in Cu + Au collisions at $\sqrt{s{NN}}$=200 GeV at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider. The jet-energy distributions extend to energies much larger than expected by Feynman scaling. This constitutes the first clear evidence for Feynman-scaling violations in heavy-ion collisions. Such high-energy particle production has been in models via QCD string interactions, but so far is untested by experiment. One such model calls this a hadronic accelerator. Studies with a particular heavy-ion event generator ( HIJING ) show that photons and mesons exhibit such very high-energy production in a heavy-ion collision, so a QCD accelerator appropriately captures the physics associated with such QCD string interactions. All models other than HIJING used for hadronic interactions in the study of extensive air showers from cosmic rays either do not include these QCD string interactions or have smaller effects from the QCD accelerator.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Inclusive cross section measurements in final states with and without protons for charged-current ν μ -Ar scattering in MicroBooNE

A detailed understanding of inclusive muon neutrino charged-current interactions on argon is crucial to the study of neutrino oscillations in current and future experiments using liquid argon time projection chambers. To that end, we report a comprehensive set of differential cross section measurements for this channel that simultaneously probe the leptonic and hadronic systems by dividing the channel into final states with and without protons. Measurements of the proton kinematics and proton multiplicity of the final state are also presented. For these measurements, we utilize data collected with the MicroBooNE detector from 6.4 × 10 20 protons on target from the Fermilab booster neutrino beam at a mean neutrino energy of approximately 0.8 GeV. We present in detail the cross section extraction procedure, including the unfolding, and model validation that uses data to model comparisons and the conditional constraint formalism to detect mismodeling that may introduce biases to extracted cross sections that are larger than their uncertainties. The validation exposes insufficiencies in the overall model, motivating the inclusion of an additional data-driven reweighting systematic to ensure the accuracy of the unfolding. The extracted results are compared to a number of event generators and their performance is discussed with a focus on the regions of phase space that indicate the greatest need for modeling improvements. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Poisson Log-Normal Process for Count Data Prediction

Modeling count data is important in physics and other scientific disciplines, where measurements often involve discrete, non-negative quantities such as photon or neutrino detection events. Traditional parametric approaches can be trained to generate integer-count predictions but may struggle with capturing complex, non-linear dependencies often observed in the data. Gaussian process (GP) regression provides a robust non-parametric alternative to modeling continuous data; however, it cannot generate integer outputs. We propose the Poisson Log-Normal (PoLoN) process, a framework that employs GP to model Poisson log-rates. As in GP regression, our approach relies on the correlations between data points captured via GP kernel structure rather than explicit functional parameterizations. We demonstrate that the PoLoN predictive distribution is Poisson-LogNormal and provide an algorithm for optimizing kernel hyperparameters. Furthermore, we adapt the PoLoN approach to the problem of detecting weak localized signals superimposed on a smoothly varying background - a task of considerable interest in many areas of science and engineering. Our framework allows us to predict the strength, location and width of the detected signals. We evaluate PoLoN's performance using both synthetic and real-world datasets, including the open dataset from CERN which was used to detect the Higgs boson at the Large Hadron Collider. Our results indicate that the PoLoN process can be used as a non-parametric alternative for analyzing, predicting, and extracting signals from integer-valued data.

Saha, Anushka [Rutgers U., Piscataway]↗

Measurement of charged hadron multiplicity in Au + Au collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 200 GeV with the sPHENIX detector

The pseudorapidity distribution of charged hadrons produced in Au + Au collisions at a center-of-mass energy of $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 200 GeV is measured using data collected by the sPHENIX detector. Charged hadron yields are extracted by counting cluster pairs in the inner and outer layers of the Intermediate Silicon Tracker, with corrections applied for detector acceptance, reconstruction efficiency, combinatorial pairs, and contributions from secondary decays. The measured distributions cover |η| < 1.1 across various centralities, and the average pseudorapidity density of charged hadrons at mid-rapidity is compared to predictions from Monte Carlo heavy-ion event generators. This result, featuring full azimuthal coverage at mid-rapidity, is consistent with previous experimental measurements at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider, thereby supporting the broader sPHENIX physics program.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Jet energy drop

We study the jet energy drop, which is the relative difference between the groomed and ungroomed jet energy or transverse momentum. It is one of the fundamental quantities that characterizes the impact of grooming on jets produced in high energy collisions. We consider three different grooming algorithms i) soft drop, ii) iterated soft drop, and iii) trimming. We carry out the resummation of large logarithms of the jet energy drop, the jet radius as well as relevant grooming parameters at next-to-leading logarithmic (NLL') accuracy. In addition, we account for non-global and clustering logarithms, and determine the next-to-leading order corrections. For soft drop we perform a joint resummation of the jet energy drop and the groomed jet radius, which is necessary to achieve the correct all-order structure of the cross section, in particular for the Sudakov-safe case of soft drop with β = 0. We present numerical results for LHC energies and compare to Pythia simulations as well as CMS data. Our factorization framework predicts the onset of nonperturbative effects in the jet energy distribution, in line with what we find in Pythia. The jet energy drop observables stand out because they only probe soft radiation, making them ideal candidates for the tuning of parton shower Monte Carlo event generators and for probing medium effects in heavy-ion collisions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

The Analysis Description Language Ecosystem: Latest developments and physics applications

We present latest developments in Analysis Description Language (ADL), a declarative domain-specific language describing the physics algorithm of a HEP data analysis decoupled from software frameworks. Analyses written in ADL can be integrated into any framework for various tasks. ADL is a multipurpose construct with uses ranging from analysis design to preservation, reinterpretation, queries, visualisation, combination, etc. The most advanced infrastructure to execute ADL on events is the CutLang runtime interpreter. Recent technical developments include an automated interface with different data types, generation of the abstract syntax tree, a visualization tool that that auto-converts analysis flows to graphs, incorporation of trained machine learning models and a Jupyter-based plotting tool. We also report physics implications including a large scale LHC analysis implementation and validation effort for beyond the standard model reinterpretation purposes and studies with ATLAS and CMS open data.

Sekmen, Sezen [Kyungpook National Univ., Daegu (Ko↗

Resolution of 100 photons and quantum generation of unbiased random numbers

Macroscopic quantum phenomena, such as observed in superfluids and superconductors, have led to promising technological advancements and some of the most important tests of fundamental physics. At present, quantum detection of light is mostly relegated to the microscale, where avalanche photodiodes are very sensitive to distinguishing single-photon events from vacuum but cannot differentiate between larger photon-number events. Beyond this, the ability to perform measurements to resolve photon numbers is highly desirable for a variety of quantum information applications including computation, sensing, and cryptography. True photon-number resolving detectors do exist, but they are currently limited to the ability to resolve on the order of 10 photons, which is too small for certain proposals. In this work, we extend photon measurement into the mesoscopic regime by implementing a detection scheme based on multiplexing highly quantum-efficient transition-edge sensors to accurately resolve photon numbers between zero and 100. Further, we then demonstrate the use of our system by implementing a quantum random number generator with no inherent bias. This method is based on sampling a coherent state in the photon-number basis and is robust against environmental noise, phase and amplitude fluctuations in the laser, loss and detector inefficiency as well as eavesdropping. Beyond true random number generation, our detection scheme serves as a means to implement quantum measurement and engineering techniques valuable for photonic quantum information processing.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

SymbolFit: Automatic Parametric Modeling with Symbolic Regression

We introduce SymbolFit (API: https://github.com/hftsoi/symbolfit), a framework that automates parametric modeling by using symbolic regression to perform a machine-search for functions that fit the data while simultaneously providing uncertainty estimates in a single run. Traditionally, constructing a parametric model to accurately describe binned data has been a manual and iterative process, requiring an adequate functional form to be determined before the fit can be performed. The main challenge arises when the appropriate functional forms cannot be derived from first principles, especially when there is no underlying true closed-form function for the distribution. In this work, we develop a framework that automates and streamlines the process by utilizing symbolic regression, a machine learning technique that explores a vast space of candidate functions without requiring a predefined functional form because the functional form itself is treated as a trainable parameter, making the process far more efficient and effortless than traditional regression methods. We demonstrate the framework in high-energy physics experiments at the CERN Large Hadron Collider (LHC) using five real proton-proton collision datasets from new physics searches, including background modeling in resonance searches for high-mass dijet, trijet, paired-dijet, diphoton, and dimuon events. We show that our framework can flexibly and efficiently generate a wide range of candidate functions that fit a nontrivial distribution well using a simple fit configuration that varies only by random seed, and that the same fit configuration, which defines a vast function space, can also be applied to distributions of different shapes, whereas achieving a comparable result with traditional methods would have required extensive manual effort.

Tsoi, Ho Fung [Univ. of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia↗

Benchmarking State-of-the-Art Theory and Empirical Models of Pionless Neutrino-Argon Scattering in GENIE

Neutrino event generators require a delicate balance between theory and empirically-driven models to achieve reliable simulations. GENIE is the most commonly used generator, bridging theory and experiment in modern neutrino physics. Its flexible framework makes it ideal for comparing different models across all aspects of neutrino interactions—from the nuclear ground state and primary vertex to final-state interactions. Recently, GENIE has incorporated several state-of-the-art, theory-driven models, including spectral-function descriptions of the nuclear ground state, axial form factors from first-principles lattice QCD calculations, and the Liège intranuclear cascade model for simulating final-state interactions. Compared to the previous baseline models in GENIE—such as the local Fermi gas, dipole-like axial form factor, and hA final-state interaction model—the new implementations are more physically realistic and incorporate more complete physics, including nuclear de-excitation. This poster presents the implementation of new models in GENIE and their performance in comparisons among these models against recent MicroBooNE cross-section measurements.

Liu, Liang [Fermilab] (ORCID:000000026753925X)↗

Benchmarking State-of-the-Art Theory and Empirical Models of Pionless Neutrino-Argon Scattering in GENIE

Neutrino event generators require a delicate balance between theory and empirically-driven models to achieve reliable simulations. GENIE is the most commonly used generator, bridging theory and experiment in modern neutrino physics. Its flexible framework makes it ideal for comparing different models across all aspects of neutrino interactions—from the nuclear ground state and primary vertex to final-state interactions. Recently, GENIE has incorporated several state-of-the-art, theory-driven models, including spectral-function descriptions of the nuclear ground state, axial form factors from first-principles lattice QCD calculations, and the Liège intranuclear cascade model for simulating final-state interactions. Compared to the previous baseline models in GENIE—such as the local Fermi gas, dipole-like axial form factor, and hA final-state interaction model—the new implementations are more physically realistic and incorporate more complete physics, including nuclear de-excitation. This poster presents the implementation of new models in GENIE and their performance in comparisons among these models against recent MicroBooNE cross-section measurements.

Liu, Liang [Fermilab] (ORCID:000000026753925X)↗